Climate change significantly impacts forest ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions.However,spatiotemporal patterns of climate-sensitive changes in individual tree growth under increased climate warming and precipita...Climate change significantly impacts forest ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions.However,spatiotemporal patterns of climate-sensitive changes in individual tree growth under increased climate warming and precipitation in north-west China is unclear.The dendrochronological method was used to study climate response sensitivity of radial growth of Picea schrenkiana from 158 trees at six sites during 1990-2020.The results show that climate warming and increased precipitation significantly promoted the growth of trees.The response to temperature first increased,then decreased.However,the response to increased precipitation and the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index(scPDSI)increased significantly.In most areas of the Tianshan Mountains,the proportion of trees under increased precipitation and scPDSI positive response was relatively high.Over time,small-diameter trees were strongly affected by drought stress.It is predicted that under continuous warming and increased precipitation,trees in most areas of the Tianshan Mountains,especially those with small diameters,will be more affected by precipitation.展开更多
Climate sequences can be applied to defining sensitive climate zones, and then the mining of spatio-temporal teleconnection patterns is useful for learning from the past and preparing for the future. However, scale-de...Climate sequences can be applied to defining sensitive climate zones, and then the mining of spatio-temporal teleconnection patterns is useful for learning from the past and preparing for the future. However, scale-dependency in this kind of pattern is still not well handled by existing work. Therefore, in this study, the multi-scale regionalization is embedded into the spatio-temporal teleconnection pattern mining between anomalous sea and land climatic events. A modified scale-space clustering algorithm is first developed to group climate sequences into multi-scale climate zones. Then, scale variance analysis method is employed to identify climate zones at characteristic scales, indicating the main characteristics of geographical phenomena. Finally, by using the climate zones identified at characteristic scales, a time association rule mining algorithm based on sliding time windows is employed to discover spatio-temporal teleconnection patterns. Experiments on sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, land precipitation and land temperature datasets show that many patterns obtained by the multi-scale approach are coincident with prior knowledge, indicating that this method is effective and reasonable. In addition, some unknown teleconnection patterns discovered from the multi-scale approach can be further used to guide the prediction of land climate.展开更多
This paper principally focuses on the morphological differences,spatial pattern and regional types of rural settlements in Xuzhou City of Jiangsu Province in China.Using satellite images of Xuzhou City taken in 2007 a...This paper principally focuses on the morphological differences,spatial pattern and regional types of rural settlements in Xuzhou City of Jiangsu Province in China.Using satellite images of Xuzhou City taken in 2007 and 2008 and models of exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA) and spatial metrics,the paper conducts a quantitative analysis of the morphological pattern of rural settlements,and finds significant characteristics.First,rural settlements in Xuzhou City are significantly agglomerated in terms of their spatial distribution;meanwhile,there is significant variation in the geographical density distribution.Second,the scale of rural settlements in Xuzhou City is larger than the average in Jiangsu Province,and the histogram of the scale data is more even and more like a gamma distribution.There are a significant high-value cluster in the scale distribution,and local negative correlation between the scale and density distribution of rural settlements in Xuzhou City.Third,the morphology of rural settlements in Xuzhou City shows relative regularity with good connection and integrity,but the spatial variation of the morphology is anisotropic.Finally,according to the characteristics of density,scale,and form of rural settlements,the rural settlements of Xuzhou City are divided into three types:A high-density and point-scattered type,a low-density and cluster-like type and a mass-like and sparse type.The research findings could be used as the scientific foundation for rural planning and community rebuilding,particularly in less-developed areas.展开更多
Landscape ecology is a new science and there are few cases about applying landscape pattern analysis in optimizing regional planning.By taking the planning of the special planning area for Boao Forum for Asia as the s...Landscape ecology is a new science and there are few cases about applying landscape pattern analysis in optimizing regional planning.By taking the planning of the special planning area for Boao Forum for Asia as the study object,several important landscape indexes have been selected for static analysis of landscape structural feature and landscape structural stability.By using ArcGIS,landscape structural stability map has been overlaid with land use planning map,and then optimization suggestions have been proposed for unreasonable plots.Landscape type and landscape pattern diversity have been selected for dynamic analysis and then suggestions for landscape security pattern been put forward.Through case studies,it has provided a reference for landscape pattern analysis as a means to optimize regional planning.展开更多
Trend and stationarity analysis of climatic variables are essential for understanding climate variability and provide useful information about the vulnerability and future changes,especially in arid and semi-arid regi...Trend and stationarity analysis of climatic variables are essential for understanding climate variability and provide useful information about the vulnerability and future changes,especially in arid and semi-arid regions.In this study,various climatic zones of Iran were investigated to assess the relationship between the trend and the stationarity of the climatic variables.The Mann-Kendall test was considered to identify the trend,while the trend free pre-whitening approach was applied for eliminating serial correlation from the time-series.Meanwhile,time series stationarity was tested by Dickey-Fuller and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin tests.The results indicated an increasing trend for mean air temperature series at most of the stations over various climatic zones,however,after eliminating the serial correlation factor,this increasing trend changes to an insignificant decreasing trend at a 95%confidence level.The seasonal mean air temperature trend suggested a significant increase in the majority of the stations.The mean air temperature increased more in northwest towards central parts of Iran that mostly located in arid and semiarid climatic zones.Precipitation trend reveals an insignificant downward trend in most of the series over various climatic zones;furthermore,most of the stations follow a decreasing trend for seasonal precipitation.Furthermore,spatial patterns of trend and seasonality of precipitation and mean air temperature showed that the northwest parts of Iran and margin areas of the Caspian Sea are more vulnerable to the changing climate with respect to the precipitation shortfalls and warming.Stationarity analysis indicated that the stationarity of climatic series influences on their trend;so that,the series which have significant trends are not static.The findings of this investigation can help planners and policy-makers in various fields related to climatic issues,implementing better management and planning strategies to adapt to climate change and variability over Iran.展开更多
Freshwater plays a vital role in global sustainability by improving human lives and protecting nature.In the Lancang-Mekong River Basin(LMRB),sustainable development is principally dependent upon precipitation that pr...Freshwater plays a vital role in global sustainability by improving human lives and protecting nature.In the Lancang-Mekong River Basin(LMRB),sustainable development is principally dependent upon precipitation that predominantly controls freshwater resources availability required for both life and livelihood of~70 million people.Hence,this study comprehensively analyzed long-term historical precipitation patterns(in terms of trends,variability,and links to climate teleconnections)throughout the LMRB as well as its upper(Lancang River Basin,LRB)and lower(Mekong River Basin,MRB)parts employing six gauge-based gridded climate products:Asian Precipitation Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources(APHRODITE),Climate Prediction Center(CPC),Climate Research Unit(CRU),Global Precipitation Climatology Center(GPCC),Precipitation Reconstruction over Land(PRECL),and University of Delaware(UDEL).Accordingly,annual and seasonal(dry and wet)precipitation time series were calculated for three study periods:century-long outlook(1901-2010),mid-past(1951-2010),and recent decades(1981-2010).However,the role of climate teleconnections in precipitation variability over the LMRB was only identified during their available temporal coverages:mid-past and recent decades.The results generally showed that:(i)both annual and seasonal precipitation increased across all three basins in 1981-2010;(ii)wet and dry seasons got drier and wetter,respectively,in all basins in 1951-2010;(iii)all such changes were fundamentally attributed to increases in precipitation variability on both annual and seasonal scales over time;(iv)these variations were most strongly associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO),Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation(AMO)and East Pacific/North Pacific(EP/NP)pattern in the LMRB and the MRB during 1951-2010,but with the North Sea-Caspian Pattern(NCP)and the Southern Annular Mode(SAM)in the LRB;(v)such relationships got stronger in 1981-2010,while the Southern Oscillation Index(SOI)became the most influential teleconnection for dry season precipitation variability across all basins;and(vi)GPCC(APHRODITE)provided the most reliable gauge-based gridded precipitation time series over the LMRB for the years before(after)1951.These findings lay a foundation for further studies focusing on water resources and sustainable development in the LMRB.展开更多
In order to provide an objective and scientific theoretical basis for rational distribution of wheat growth in Yunnan Province,according to the relationship between Yunnan weather conditions and wheat growth adaptabil...In order to provide an objective and scientific theoretical basis for rational distribution of wheat growth in Yunnan Province,according to the relationship between Yunnan weather conditions and wheat growth adaptability,a study on eco-climate type regionalization of wheat growing areas in Yunnan was conducted using principal component analysis and GIS technology. The results show that Yunnan Province could be divided into four types,namely southern warm and humid wheat growing area,central semi-arid wheat growing area,central semi-humid wheat growing area and north-central cold wheat growing area.展开更多
气候变化是贯穿整个寒区地下水研究领域中重要的影响因素,对寒区流域水文过程、生态环境、工程地质和水文地质条件的影响已引起诸多学者的关注,截至2022年底该研究领域已呈现出纷繁复杂的现象。为了厘清该领域的研究态势,基于中文库(中...气候变化是贯穿整个寒区地下水研究领域中重要的影响因素,对寒区流域水文过程、生态环境、工程地质和水文地质条件的影响已引起诸多学者的关注,截至2022年底该研究领域已呈现出纷繁复杂的现象。为了厘清该领域的研究态势,基于中文库(中国知网)和外文库(Web of Science和Science Direct)的文献数据,分别利用文献计量软件CiteSpace和VOSviewer、网络分析工具SCImago Graphica和Pajek,以及数据分析软件OriginPro对该领域的作者文龄、发文量、科研机构、国家地区以及关键词进行统计分析,在此基础上筛选出60篇具有代表性论文,结合ArcGIS软件所投影的研究区位置,进一步归纳与总结其研究趋势。研究表明作者文龄结构均为增长型,年发文量均呈上升趋势,而后者的作者、各个科研机构和欧美国家之间合作关系更为紧密,且美国、中国和加拿大主导该领域的研究。前者的研究热点相对局限,近年来多致力于多年冻土区冻融循环作用影响下的地下水动态对气候变化的响应研究;后者的研究热点分别从地下水、气候变化、多年冻土三个主题展开:(1)采用数值模拟、同位素和水化学示踪手段研究地下水的年龄、水均衡、水分来源和流动路径;(2)水文输入变化对地下水的补给、径流和排泄过程的影响;(3)研究高纬度寒区多年冻土消融与退化、溶解性有机碳释放与迁移、冻土地貌形成与地下水之间的联系。未来应从不同含水层地下水动态特征及其对气候变化的响应机制、冻土退化影响下含水层系统与地下水的相互作用、冻土区有机碳释放与迁移机制,以及非连续冻土区地下水与地表水的交互作用四个方向继续展开研究,并建议在高海拔山区含水层类型与水力特征,以及高纬度低海拔寒区工程地质和生态环境方面的薄弱环节上加强和完善。展开更多
The authors investigate possible changes of monsoon rainfall and associated seasonal (June-JulyAugust) anomaly patterns over eastern China in the late 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (...The authors investigate possible changes of monsoon rainfall and associated seasonal (June-JulyAugust) anomaly patterns over eastern China in the late 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 emission scenario as simulated by a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) nested in a general circulation model (FvGCM/CCM3).Two sets of multi-decadal simulations are performed at 20-km grid spacing for present day and future climate conditions.Results show that the RegCM3 reproduces the mean rainfall distribution;however the evolution of the monsoon rain belt from South China to North China is not well simulated.Concerning the rain pattern classifications,RegCM3 overestimates the occurrence of Pattern 1 (excessive rainfall in northern China) and underestimates that of Pattern 2 (increased rainfall over the Huai River basin).Under future climate conditions,RegCM3 projects less occurrence of Pattern 1,more of Pattern 2,and little change of Pattern 3 (rainfall increase along the Yangtze River).These results indicate that there might be increased rainfall over the Huai-Yellow River area and reduced rainfall over North China in the future,while rainfall over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin is not modified significantly.Uncertainties exist in the present study are also discussed.展开更多
The three-river source region (TRSR, including Yangtze, Yellow and Lancang rivers), located in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China, is a typical alpine zone with apparent ecosystem vulnerability and sensitivity. In thi...The three-river source region (TRSR, including Yangtze, Yellow and Lancang rivers), located in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China, is a typical alpine zone with apparent ecosystem vulnerability and sensitivity. In this paper, we introduced many interdisciplinary factors, such as landscape pattern indices (Shannon diversity index and Shannon evenness index) and extreme climate factors (number of extreme high temperature days, number of extreme low temperature days, and number of extreme precipitation days), to establish a new model for evaluating the spatial patterns of ecosystem vulnerability changes in the TRSR. The change intensity (CI) of ecosystem vulnerability was also analyzed. The results showed that the established evaluation model was effective and the ecosystem vulnerability in the whole study area was intensive. During the study period of 2001–2011, there was a slight degradation in the eco-environmental quality. The Yellow River source region had the best eco-environmental quality, while the Yangtze River source region had the worst one. In addition, the zones dominated by deserts were the most severely deteriorated areas and the eco-environmental quality of the zones occupied by evergreen coniferous forests showed a better change. Furthermore, the larger the change rates of the climate factors (accumulative temperature of ≥10°C and annual average precipitation) are, the more intensive the CI of ecosystem vulnerability is. This study would provide a scientific basis for the eco-environmental protection and restoration in the TRSR.展开更多
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.31971460 and 32271646)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2021YFD2200401)。
文摘Climate change significantly impacts forest ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions.However,spatiotemporal patterns of climate-sensitive changes in individual tree growth under increased climate warming and precipitation in north-west China is unclear.The dendrochronological method was used to study climate response sensitivity of radial growth of Picea schrenkiana from 158 trees at six sites during 1990-2020.The results show that climate warming and increased precipitation significantly promoted the growth of trees.The response to temperature first increased,then decreased.However,the response to increased precipitation and the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index(scPDSI)increased significantly.In most areas of the Tianshan Mountains,the proportion of trees under increased precipitation and scPDSI positive response was relatively high.Over time,small-diameter trees were strongly affected by drought stress.It is predicted that under continuous warming and increased precipitation,trees in most areas of the Tianshan Mountains,especially those with small diameters,will be more affected by precipitation.
基金Projects(41601424,41171351)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2012CB719906)supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)+2 种基金Project(14JJ1007)supported by the Hunan Natural Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars,ChinaProject(2017M610486)supported by the China Postdoctoral Science FoundationProjects(2017YFB0503700,2017YFB0503601)supported by the National Key Research and Development Foundation of China
文摘Climate sequences can be applied to defining sensitive climate zones, and then the mining of spatio-temporal teleconnection patterns is useful for learning from the past and preparing for the future. However, scale-dependency in this kind of pattern is still not well handled by existing work. Therefore, in this study, the multi-scale regionalization is embedded into the spatio-temporal teleconnection pattern mining between anomalous sea and land climatic events. A modified scale-space clustering algorithm is first developed to group climate sequences into multi-scale climate zones. Then, scale variance analysis method is employed to identify climate zones at characteristic scales, indicating the main characteristics of geographical phenomena. Finally, by using the climate zones identified at characteristic scales, a time association rule mining algorithm based on sliding time windows is employed to discover spatio-temporal teleconnection patterns. Experiments on sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, land precipitation and land temperature datasets show that many patterns obtained by the multi-scale approach are coincident with prior knowledge, indicating that this method is effective and reasonable. In addition, some unknown teleconnection patterns discovered from the multi-scale approach can be further used to guide the prediction of land climate.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41071116)Humanity and Social ScienceFoundation of Ministry of Education(No.09YJC790225,11YJA630008)
文摘This paper principally focuses on the morphological differences,spatial pattern and regional types of rural settlements in Xuzhou City of Jiangsu Province in China.Using satellite images of Xuzhou City taken in 2007 and 2008 and models of exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA) and spatial metrics,the paper conducts a quantitative analysis of the morphological pattern of rural settlements,and finds significant characteristics.First,rural settlements in Xuzhou City are significantly agglomerated in terms of their spatial distribution;meanwhile,there is significant variation in the geographical density distribution.Second,the scale of rural settlements in Xuzhou City is larger than the average in Jiangsu Province,and the histogram of the scale data is more even and more like a gamma distribution.There are a significant high-value cluster in the scale distribution,and local negative correlation between the scale and density distribution of rural settlements in Xuzhou City.Third,the morphology of rural settlements in Xuzhou City shows relative regularity with good connection and integrity,but the spatial variation of the morphology is anisotropic.Finally,according to the characteristics of density,scale,and form of rural settlements,the rural settlements of Xuzhou City are divided into three types:A high-density and point-scattered type,a low-density and cluster-like type and a mass-like and sparse type.The research findings could be used as the scientific foundation for rural planning and community rebuilding,particularly in less-developed areas.
基金Supported by Project of National High Technological Research Development Planning (2007AA06A404)Weihe River Special Fund (2009ZX07212-002)Key Scientific and Technological Project of Hainan Province of 2009(KJXM20090001)
文摘Landscape ecology is a new science and there are few cases about applying landscape pattern analysis in optimizing regional planning.By taking the planning of the special planning area for Boao Forum for Asia as the study object,several important landscape indexes have been selected for static analysis of landscape structural feature and landscape structural stability.By using ArcGIS,landscape structural stability map has been overlaid with land use planning map,and then optimization suggestions have been proposed for unreasonable plots.Landscape type and landscape pattern diversity have been selected for dynamic analysis and then suggestions for landscape security pattern been put forward.Through case studies,it has provided a reference for landscape pattern analysis as a means to optimize regional planning.
文摘Trend and stationarity analysis of climatic variables are essential for understanding climate variability and provide useful information about the vulnerability and future changes,especially in arid and semi-arid regions.In this study,various climatic zones of Iran were investigated to assess the relationship between the trend and the stationarity of the climatic variables.The Mann-Kendall test was considered to identify the trend,while the trend free pre-whitening approach was applied for eliminating serial correlation from the time-series.Meanwhile,time series stationarity was tested by Dickey-Fuller and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin tests.The results indicated an increasing trend for mean air temperature series at most of the stations over various climatic zones,however,after eliminating the serial correlation factor,this increasing trend changes to an insignificant decreasing trend at a 95%confidence level.The seasonal mean air temperature trend suggested a significant increase in the majority of the stations.The mean air temperature increased more in northwest towards central parts of Iran that mostly located in arid and semiarid climatic zones.Precipitation trend reveals an insignificant downward trend in most of the series over various climatic zones;furthermore,most of the stations follow a decreasing trend for seasonal precipitation.Furthermore,spatial patterns of trend and seasonality of precipitation and mean air temperature showed that the northwest parts of Iran and margin areas of the Caspian Sea are more vulnerable to the changing climate with respect to the precipitation shortfalls and warming.Stationarity analysis indicated that the stationarity of climatic series influences on their trend;so that,the series which have significant trends are not static.The findings of this investigation can help planners and policy-makers in various fields related to climatic issues,implementing better management and planning strategies to adapt to climate change and variability over Iran.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA20060401,XDA20060402)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41625001)the High-level Special Funding of the Southern University of Science and Technology(Grant No.G02296302,G02296402).
文摘Freshwater plays a vital role in global sustainability by improving human lives and protecting nature.In the Lancang-Mekong River Basin(LMRB),sustainable development is principally dependent upon precipitation that predominantly controls freshwater resources availability required for both life and livelihood of~70 million people.Hence,this study comprehensively analyzed long-term historical precipitation patterns(in terms of trends,variability,and links to climate teleconnections)throughout the LMRB as well as its upper(Lancang River Basin,LRB)and lower(Mekong River Basin,MRB)parts employing six gauge-based gridded climate products:Asian Precipitation Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources(APHRODITE),Climate Prediction Center(CPC),Climate Research Unit(CRU),Global Precipitation Climatology Center(GPCC),Precipitation Reconstruction over Land(PRECL),and University of Delaware(UDEL).Accordingly,annual and seasonal(dry and wet)precipitation time series were calculated for three study periods:century-long outlook(1901-2010),mid-past(1951-2010),and recent decades(1981-2010).However,the role of climate teleconnections in precipitation variability over the LMRB was only identified during their available temporal coverages:mid-past and recent decades.The results generally showed that:(i)both annual and seasonal precipitation increased across all three basins in 1981-2010;(ii)wet and dry seasons got drier and wetter,respectively,in all basins in 1951-2010;(iii)all such changes were fundamentally attributed to increases in precipitation variability on both annual and seasonal scales over time;(iv)these variations were most strongly associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO),Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation(AMO)and East Pacific/North Pacific(EP/NP)pattern in the LMRB and the MRB during 1951-2010,but with the North Sea-Caspian Pattern(NCP)and the Southern Annular Mode(SAM)in the LRB;(v)such relationships got stronger in 1981-2010,while the Southern Oscillation Index(SOI)became the most influential teleconnection for dry season precipitation variability across all basins;and(vi)GPCC(APHRODITE)provided the most reliable gauge-based gridded precipitation time series over the LMRB for the years before(after)1951.These findings lay a foundation for further studies focusing on water resources and sustainable development in the LMRB.
基金Supported by the National Special Founds for the Construction of Modern Agricultural Industrial Technology System (MATS)(CARS-3-2-45)Founds for Selection and Promotion of New High-quality Beer-feed Barley in Yunnan
文摘In order to provide an objective and scientific theoretical basis for rational distribution of wheat growth in Yunnan Province,according to the relationship between Yunnan weather conditions and wheat growth adaptability,a study on eco-climate type regionalization of wheat growing areas in Yunnan was conducted using principal component analysis and GIS technology. The results show that Yunnan Province could be divided into four types,namely southern warm and humid wheat growing area,central semi-arid wheat growing area,central semi-humid wheat growing area and north-central cold wheat growing area.
文摘气候变化是贯穿整个寒区地下水研究领域中重要的影响因素,对寒区流域水文过程、生态环境、工程地质和水文地质条件的影响已引起诸多学者的关注,截至2022年底该研究领域已呈现出纷繁复杂的现象。为了厘清该领域的研究态势,基于中文库(中国知网)和外文库(Web of Science和Science Direct)的文献数据,分别利用文献计量软件CiteSpace和VOSviewer、网络分析工具SCImago Graphica和Pajek,以及数据分析软件OriginPro对该领域的作者文龄、发文量、科研机构、国家地区以及关键词进行统计分析,在此基础上筛选出60篇具有代表性论文,结合ArcGIS软件所投影的研究区位置,进一步归纳与总结其研究趋势。研究表明作者文龄结构均为增长型,年发文量均呈上升趋势,而后者的作者、各个科研机构和欧美国家之间合作关系更为紧密,且美国、中国和加拿大主导该领域的研究。前者的研究热点相对局限,近年来多致力于多年冻土区冻融循环作用影响下的地下水动态对气候变化的响应研究;后者的研究热点分别从地下水、气候变化、多年冻土三个主题展开:(1)采用数值模拟、同位素和水化学示踪手段研究地下水的年龄、水均衡、水分来源和流动路径;(2)水文输入变化对地下水的补给、径流和排泄过程的影响;(3)研究高纬度寒区多年冻土消融与退化、溶解性有机碳释放与迁移、冻土地貌形成与地下水之间的联系。未来应从不同含水层地下水动态特征及其对气候变化的响应机制、冻土退化影响下含水层系统与地下水的相互作用、冻土区有机碳释放与迁移机制,以及非连续冻土区地下水与地表水的交互作用四个方向继续展开研究,并建议在高海拔山区含水层类型与水力特征,以及高纬度低海拔寒区工程地质和生态环境方面的薄弱环节上加强和完善。
基金jointly supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No.2009CB421407) the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (meteorology) (GYHY200806010)
文摘The authors investigate possible changes of monsoon rainfall and associated seasonal (June-JulyAugust) anomaly patterns over eastern China in the late 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 emission scenario as simulated by a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) nested in a general circulation model (FvGCM/CCM3).Two sets of multi-decadal simulations are performed at 20-km grid spacing for present day and future climate conditions.Results show that the RegCM3 reproduces the mean rainfall distribution;however the evolution of the monsoon rain belt from South China to North China is not well simulated.Concerning the rain pattern classifications,RegCM3 overestimates the occurrence of Pattern 1 (excessive rainfall in northern China) and underestimates that of Pattern 2 (increased rainfall over the Huai River basin).Under future climate conditions,RegCM3 projects less occurrence of Pattern 1,more of Pattern 2,and little change of Pattern 3 (rainfall increase along the Yangtze River).These results indicate that there might be increased rainfall over the Huai-Yellow River area and reduced rainfall over North China in the future,while rainfall over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin is not modified significantly.Uncertainties exist in the present study are also discussed.
基金supported by the Foundation of Director of Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth,Chinese Academy of Sciences(Y4SY0200CX)the Special Project on High Resolution of Earth Observation System for Major Function Oriented Zones Planning(00-Y30B14-9001-14/16)
文摘The three-river source region (TRSR, including Yangtze, Yellow and Lancang rivers), located in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China, is a typical alpine zone with apparent ecosystem vulnerability and sensitivity. In this paper, we introduced many interdisciplinary factors, such as landscape pattern indices (Shannon diversity index and Shannon evenness index) and extreme climate factors (number of extreme high temperature days, number of extreme low temperature days, and number of extreme precipitation days), to establish a new model for evaluating the spatial patterns of ecosystem vulnerability changes in the TRSR. The change intensity (CI) of ecosystem vulnerability was also analyzed. The results showed that the established evaluation model was effective and the ecosystem vulnerability in the whole study area was intensive. During the study period of 2001–2011, there was a slight degradation in the eco-environmental quality. The Yellow River source region had the best eco-environmental quality, while the Yangtze River source region had the worst one. In addition, the zones dominated by deserts were the most severely deteriorated areas and the eco-environmental quality of the zones occupied by evergreen coniferous forests showed a better change. Furthermore, the larger the change rates of the climate factors (accumulative temperature of ≥10°C and annual average precipitation) are, the more intensive the CI of ecosystem vulnerability is. This study would provide a scientific basis for the eco-environmental protection and restoration in the TRSR.