The Effect of Blood Lipid Profiles on Chronic Kidney Disease in a Prospective Cohort:Based on a Regression Discontinuity Design

Objective Previous studies on the association between lipid profiles and chronic kidney disease(CKD)have yielded inconsistent results and no defined thresholds for blood lipids.Methods A prospective cohort study including 32,351 subjects who completed baseline and follow-up surveys over 5 years was conducted.Restricted cubic splines and Cox models were used to examine the association between the lipid profiles and CKD.A regression discontinuity design was used to determine the cutoff value of lipid profiles that was significantly associated with increased the risk of CKD.Results Over a median follow-up time of 2.2(0.5,4.2)years,648(2.00%)subjects developed CKD.The lipid profiles that were significantly and linearly related to CKD included total cholesterol(TC),triglycerides(TG),high-density lipoprotein cholesterol(HDL-C),TC/HDL-C,and TG/HDL-C,whereas lowdensity lipoprotein cholesterol(LDL-C)and LDL-C/HDL-C were nonlinearly correlated with CKD.TC,TG,TC/HDL-C,and TG/HDL-C showed an upward jump at the cutoff value,increasing the risk of CKD by 0.90%,1.50%,2.30%,and 1.60%,respectively,whereas HDL-C showed a downward jump at the cutoff value,reducing this risk by 1.0%.Female and participants with dyslipidemia had a higher risk of CKD,while the cutoff values for the different characteristics of the population were different.Conclusion There was a significant association between lipid profiles and CKD in a prospective cohort from Northwest China,while TG,TC/HDL-C,and TG/HDL-C showed a stronger risk association.The specific cutoff values of lipid profiles may provide a clinical reference for screening or diagnosing CKD risk.

Regression discontinuity design and its applications to Science of Science:A survey

Purpose:With the availability of large-scale scholarly datasets,scientists from various domains hope to understand the underlying mechanisms behind science,forming a vibrant area of inquiry in the emerging“science of science”field.As the results from the science of science often has strong policy implications,understanding the causal relationships between variables becomes prominent.However,the most credible quasi-experimental method among all causal inference methods,and a highly valuable tool in the empirical toolkit,Regression Discontinuity Design(RDD)has not been fully exploited in the field of science of science.In this paper,we provide a systematic survey of the RDD method,and its practical applications in the science of science.Design/methodology/approach:First,we introduce the basic assumptions,mathematical notations,and two types of RDD,i.e.,sharp and fuzzy RDD.Second,we use the Web of Science and the Microsoft Academic Graph datasets to study the evolution and citation patterns of RDD papers.Moreover,we provide a systematic survey of the applications of RDD methodologies in various scientific domains,as well as in the science of science.Finally,we demonstrate a case study to estimate the effect of Head Start Funding Proposals on child mortality.Findings:RDD was almost neglected for 30 years after it was first introduced in 1960.Afterward,scientists used mathematical and economic tools to develop the RDD methodology.After 2010,RDD methods showed strong applications in various domains,including medicine,psychology,political science and environmental science.However,we also notice that the RDD method has not been well developed in science of science research.Research Limitations:This work uses a keyword search to obtain RDD papers,which may neglect some related work.Additionally,our work does not aim to develop rigorous mathematical and technical details of RDD but rather focuses on its intuitions and applications.Practical implications:This work proposes how to use the RDD method in science of science research.Originality/value:This work systematically introduces the RDD,and calls for the awareness of using such a method in the field of science of science.

A machine learning approach for accelerated design of magnesium alloys.Part B: Regression and property prediction

Machine learning(ML) models provide great opportunities to accelerate novel material development, offering a virtual alternative to laborious and resource-intensive empirical methods. In this work, the second of a two-part study, an ML approach is presented that offers accelerated digital design of Mg alloys. A systematic evaluation of four ML regression algorithms was explored to rationalise the complex relationships in Mg-alloy data and to capture the composition-processing-property patterns. Cross-validation and hold-out set validation techniques were utilised for unbiased estimation of model performance. Using atomic and thermodynamic properties of the alloys, feature augmentation was examined to define the most descriptive representation spaces for the alloy data. Additionally, a graphical user interface(GUI) webtool was developed to facilitate the use of the proposed models in predicting the mechanical properties of new Mg alloys. The results demonstrate that random forest regression model and neural network are robust models for predicting the ultimate tensile strength and ductility of Mg alloys, with accuracies of ~80% and 70% respectively. The developed models in this work are a step towards high-throughput screening of novel candidates for target mechanical properties and provide ML-guided alloy design.

Design of crown pillar thickness using finite element method and multivariate regression analysis

Minerals are now being extracted from deep mines due to drying up of resource in shallow ground. The need for suitable supports and ground control mechanisms for safe mining necessitates proper pillar design with filling technology. In addition, high horizontal stress may cause collapse of hanging wall and footwall rocks, hence designing of suitable crown pillars is absolutely necessary for imposing overall safety of the stopes. This paper provides a methodology for the evaluation of the required thickness of crown pillars for safe operation at depth ranging from 600 m to 1000 m. Analyses are conducted with the results of 108 non-linear numerical models considering Drucker-Prager material model in plane strain condition. Material properties of ore body rock and thickness of crown pillars are varied and safety factors of pillars estimated. Then, a generalized statistical relationship between the safety factors of crown pillars with the various input parameters is developed. The developed multivariate regression model is utilized for generating design/stability charts of pillars for different geo-mining conditions.These design charts can be used for the design of crown pillar thickness with the depth of the working,taking into account the changes of the rock mass conditions in underground metal mine.

Optimization of rheological parameter for micro-bubble drilling fluids by multiple regression experimental design

In order to optimize plastic viscosity of 18 mPa·s circulating micro-bubble drilling fluid formula,orthogonal and uniform experimental design methods were applied,and the plastic viscosities of 36 and 24 groups of agent were tested,respectively.It is found that these two experimental design methods show drawbacks,that is,the amount of agent is difficult to determine,and the results are not fully optimized.Therefore,multiple regression experimental method was used to design experimental formula.By randomly selecting arbitrary agent with the amount within the recommended range,17 groups of drilling fluid formula were designed,and the plastic viscosity of each experiment formula was measured.Set plastic viscosity as the objective function,through multiple regressions,then quadratic regression model is obtained,whose correlation coefficient meets the requirement.Set target values of plastic viscosity to be 18,20 and 22 mPa·s,respectively,with the trial method,5 drilling fluid formulas are obtained with accuracy of 0.000 3,0.000 1 and 0.000 3.Arbitrarily select target value of each of the two groups under the formula for experimental verification of drilling fluid,then the measurement errors between theoretical and tested plastic viscosity are less than 5%,confirming that regression model can be applied to optimizing the circulating of plastic-foam drilling fluid viscosity.In accordance with the precision of different formulations of drilling fluid for other constraints,the methods result in the optimization of the circulating micro-bubble drilling fluid parameters.

Modeling Approach and Analysis of the Structural Parameters of an Inductively Coupled Plasma Etcher Based on a Regression Orthogonal Design

The geometry of an inductively coupled plasma （ICP） etcher is usually considered to be an important factor for determining both plasma and process uniformity over a large wafer. During the past few decades, these parameters were determined by the ＂trial and error＂ method, resulting in wastes of time and funds. In this paper, a new approach of regression orthogonal design with plasma simulation experiments is proposed to investigate the sensitivity of the structural parameters on the uniformity of plasma characteristics. The tool for simulating plasma is CFD-ACE＋, which is commercial multi-physical modeling software that has been proven to be accurate for plasma simulation. The simulated experimental results are analyzed to get a regression equation on three structural parameters. Through this equation, engineers can compute the uniformity of the electron number density rapidly without modeling by CFD-ACE＋. An optimization performed at the end produces good results.

Reliability-based design in rock engineering: Application of Bayesian regression methods to rock strength data

Reliability-based design (RBD) is being adopted by geotechnical design codes worldwide, and it is therefore necessary that rock engineering practice evolves to embrace RBD. This paper examines the Hoek-Brown (H-B) strength criterion within the RBD framework, and presents three distinct analyses using a Bayesian approach. Firstly, a compilation of intact compressive strength test data for six rock types is used to examine uncertainty and variability in the estimated H-B parameters m and σc, and corresponding predicted axial strength. The results suggest that within- and between-rock type variabilities are so large that these parameters need to be determined from rock testing campaigns, rather than reference values being used. The second analysis uses an extensive set of compressive and tensile (both direct and indirect) strength data for a granodiorite, together with a new Bayesian regression model, to develop joint probability distributions of m and σc suitable for use in RBD. This analysis also shows how compressive and indirect tensile strength data may be robustly used to fit an H-B criterion. The third analysis uses the granodiorite data to investigate the important matter of developing characteristic strength criteria. Using definitions from Eurocode 7, a formal Bayesian interpretation of characteristic strength is proposed and used to analyse strength data to generate a characteristic criterion. These criteria are presented in terms of characteristic parameters mk and σck, the values of which are shown to depend on the testing regime used to obtain the strength data. The paper confirms that careful use of appropriate Bayesian statistical analysis allows the H-B criterion to be brought within the framework of RBD. It also reveals that testing guidelines such as the International Society for Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering (ISRM) suggested methods will require modification in order to support RBD. Importantly, the need to fully understand the implications of uncertainty in nonlinear strength criteria is identified.

Using multivariate adaptive regression splines to develop relationship between rock quality designation and permeability

The assessment of in situ permeability of rock mass is challenging for large-scale projects such as reservoirs created by dams,where water tightness issues are of prime importance.The in situ permeability is strongly related to the frequency and distribution of discontinuities in the rock mass and quantified by rock quality designation(RQD).This paper analyzes the data of hydraulic conductivity and discontinuities sampled at different depths during the borehole investigations in the limestone and sandstone formations for the construction of hydraulic structures in Oman.Cores recovered from boreholes provide RQD data,and in situ Lugeon tests elucidate the permeability.A modern technique of multivariate adaptive regression splines(MARS)assisted in correlating permeability and RQD along with the depth.In situ permeability shows a declining trend with increasing RQD,and the depth of investigation is within 50 m.This type of relationship can be developed based on detailed initial investigations at the site where the hydraulic conductivity of discontinuous rocks is required to be delineated.The relationship can approximate the permeability by only measuring the RQD in later investigations on the same site,thus saving the time and cost of the site investigations.The applicability of the relationship developed in this study to another location requires a lithological similarity of the rock mass that can be verified through preliminary investigation at the site.

FIXED-DESIGN SEMIPARAMETRIC REGRESSION FOR LINEAR TIME SERIES

This article studies parametric component and nonparametric component estimators in a semiparametric regression model with linear time series errors; their r-th mean consistency and complete consistency are obtained under suitable conditions. Finally, the author shows that the usual weight functions based on nearest neighbor methods satisfy the designed assumptions imposed.

Regression Models of the Impact of Rockmass and Blast Design Variations on the Effectiveness of Iron Ore Surface Blasting

The desired economics of hard rock surface mining is mainly determined by the parameters of process design which minimize the overall cost per tonne of the rock mined in drilling, blasting, handling and primary crushing in given rockmass conditions. The most effective parameters of process design could be established based on the regression models of the cumulative influence of rockmass and mine design parameters on the overall cost per tonne of the rock drilled, blasted, handled and crushed. These models could be developed from the huge data accumulated worldwide on the costs per tonne of hard rock surface mining in drilling, blasting, handling and primary crushing vs the parameters of rockmass and mine design. This paper only dwelt on the development of regression models for oversize generation, blasthole productivity and blasting cost for iron ore surface mines, whose data is available. The SPSS standard statistical correlation – regression analysis software was used in the analysis. Interpretation of the models generated shows that the individual effects of the determinant rockmass and blast design parameters on oversize generation, blasthole productivity and blasting cost are all in compliance with the findings of other researchers and the theory of explosive rock fragmentation and could be used for the estimation of oversize generation, blasthole productivity and blasting cost in rockmass and blast design conditions similar to those of the iron ore surface mines examined in this study. However, the regression models obtained here could not be used alone for the optimization of blast design because most of the determinant parameters also have conflicting effect on the other processes of drilling, handling and primary crushing the blasted rock. Also, the quality and content of the regression models could be enhanced further by increasing the content of rockmass and blast design parameters and the volume of data considered in the regression analysis.

Design of high-performance ion-doped CoP systems for hydrogen evolution:From multi-level screening calculations to experiment

Rational design of high-performance electrocatalysts for hydrogen evolution reaction(HER)is vital for future renewable energy systems.The incorporation of foreign metal ions into catalysts can be an effective approach to optimize its performance.However,there is a lack of systematic theoretical studies to reveal the quantitative relationships at the electronic level.Here,we develop a multi-level screening methodology to search for highly stable and active dopants for CoP catalysts.The density functional theory(DFT)calculations and symbolic regression(SR)were performed to investigate the relationship between the adsorption free energy(ΔG_(H^(*)))and 10 electronic parameters.The mathematic formulas derived from SR indicate that the difference of work function(ΔΦ)between doped metal and the acceptor plays the most important role in regulatingΔG_(H^(*)),followed by the d-band center(d-BC)of doped system.The descriptor of HER can be expressed asΔG_(H^(*))=1.59×√|0.188ΔΦ+d BC+0.120|1/2-0.166 with a high determination coefficient(R^(2)=0.807).Consistent with the theoretical prediction,experimental results show that the Al-CoP delivers superior electrocatalytic HER activity with a low overpotential of75 m V to drive a current density of 10 mA cm^(-2),while the overpotentials for undoped CoP,Mo-CoP,and V-CoP are 206,134,and 83 m V,respectively.The current work proves that theΔΦis the most significant regulatory parameter ofΔG_(H^(*))for ion-doped electrocatalysts.This finding can drive the discovery of high-performance ion-doped electrocatalysts,which is crucial for electrocatalytic water splitting.

Effect of cooking conditions and oxygen-delignification on Bambusa tulda kraft pulping using experimental design and regression models

This study was concerned on the influence of cooking liquor parameters i.e. active alkali （AA） and sulfidity, on the properties of pulp produced from Thai bamboo by means of multivariate analysis. The investigated pulp properties were cooking yield and viscosity. The experiments were performed according to a face centered cube experimental design. Then, multiple linear regression （MLR） of independent and dependent variables were conducted with SPSS software using least square method. In order to optimize process, Pareto-Optimality method was employed. The obtained regression models were characterized by both descriptive and predictive ability （R^2 ≥ 95% and Rcv^2 ≥ 93%） and allowed the kraft pulping process with an acceptable viscosity （ 1110- 1 190 ml/g） and a total yield about 50% at a sulfidity level of 20-30% with 18% AA. Results indicated that high sulfidity at a lower AA could get high viscosity and relatively low kappa number for pulps. Also oxygen delignification was studied in this research.

A Modification to the Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Model to Settings with Fuzzy Variables

Despite the fact that fuzzy regression discontinuity designs are growing in popularity, a lot of research takes into account treatment non-compliance difficulties, specifically the fuzziness of the treatment impact. This paper took into account independent and dependent fuzzy factors when creating these designs. Additionally we took into account treatment non-compliance difficulties, specifically the fuzziness of the treatment impact, as other research does. The modified Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity model is preferable for modeling fuzzy data. It enables us to draw improved causal effects accommodating fuzzy variables, not just the fuzziness of the treatment effect as in Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity models. A fuzzy dataset is converted into crisp data by the Centroid method of defuzzification. Once the data is crisp, the traditional least squares methods of approximation are used to estimate the parameters in the model since these parameters are considered crisp whilst the error terms are fuzzy. The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test score(AUDIT score) can be used as a cutoff to initiate treatment in this case and can be used to predict the progression of HIV disease and/or AIDS. Counseling helps to lower the use of alcohol in people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) as a result, improving the participants’ CD4 counts.

An Adaptive Design for Six Sigma(ADFSS): a Simulated Annealing and Regression Analysis Embedded Approach

Design for six sigma （DFSS） is a powerful approach of designing products, processes, and services with the objective of meeting the needs of customers in a cost-effective maimer. DFSS activities are classified into four major phases viz. identify, design, optimize, and validate （IDOV）. And an adaptive design for six sigma （ADFSS） incorporating the traits of artifidai intelligence and statistical techniques is presented. In the identify phase of the ADFSS, fuzzy relation measures between customer attributes （CAs） and engineering characteristics （ECs） as well as fuzzy correlation measures among ECs are determined with the aid of two fuzzy logic controllers （FLCs）. These two measures are then used to establish the cumulative impact factor for ECs. In the next phase （ i. e. design phase）, a transfer function is developed with the aid of robust multiple nonlinear regression analysis. Furthermore, 1this transfer function is optimized with the simulated annealing （ SA ） algorithm in the optimize phase. In the validate phase, t-test is conducted for the validation of the design resulted in earlier phase. Finally, a case study of a hypothetical writing instrument is simulated to test the efficacy of the proposed ADFSS.

Research on the Trend of Modem Interior Design Education Reform from the Perspectives of Aesthetics and Traditional Regression

In this paper, we conduct research on the trend of modern interior design education reform from the perspectives of aesthetics and traditional regression. Professional interior design technology is to adapt to the needs of economic development of practical talents in the central plains, with the spirit of the ＂seeking truth from facts＂ , pinpoint the target of profession fostering, established the reasonable personnel training mode, trying to explore suitable for the market need of professional personnel training mode and practical teaching methods, architecture art and design professional teaching system in higher vocational colleges. Interior design professional teaching reform goal, the guiding ideology, clear, clearer thinking pay attention to professional skills and professional quality education, skills, for body, quality as the soul. Our research starts from the basic analysis of aesthetics and traditional regression to propose the novel educational paradigm that is innovative.

Process Characterization of the Transesterification of Rapeseed Oil to Biodiesel Using Design of Experiments and Infrared Spectroscopy

For optimization of production processes and product quality,often knowledge of the factors influencing the process outcome is compulsory.Thus,process analytical technology(PAT)that allows deeper insight into the process and results in a mathematical description of the process behavior as a simple function based on the most important process factors can help to achieve higher production efficiency and quality.The present study aims at characterizing a well-known industrial process,the transesterification reaction of rapeseed oil with methanol to produce fatty acid methyl esters(FAME)for usage as biodiesel in a continuous micro reactor set-up.To this end,a design of experiment approach is applied,where the effects of two process factors,the molar ratio and the total flow rate of the reactants,are investigated.The optimized process target response is the FAME mass fraction in the purified nonpolar phase of the product as a measure of reaction yield.The quantification is performed using attenuated total reflection infrared spectroscopy in combination with partial least squares regression.The data retrieved during the conduction of the DoE experimental plan were used for statistical analysis.A non-linear model indicating a synergistic interaction between the studied factors describes the reactor behavior with a high coefficient of determination(R^(2))of 0.9608.Thus,we applied a PAT approach to generate further insight into this established industrial process.

断点回归方法及应用实现

目的完整、系统介绍断点回归设计(RDD)原理及统计方法,为其在公共卫生领域应用提供参考。方法在介绍断点回归设计原理基础上,用室内甲醛干预的实例演示了利用Stata软件实现断点回归统计方法的过程,介绍和比较属于参数法的多项式回归和属于非参数法的局部线性回归的分析方法和结果。结果RDD是一种准实验设计,对研究对象没有随机分组,而是选择一个与干预措施有关的变量,根据该变量的取值选择切点划分干预组和对照组。RDD在内部有效性方面优于其他准实验设计,但外部有效性受到一定限制。基于观察性资料的RDD不仅可控制可观测的混杂因素,还可控制无法观测的混杂因素,也更符合伦理道德。在本文实例中,多项式回归和局部线性回归两种分析方法的结果基本一致。结论RDD在公共卫生领域的真实世界研究中有广阔的应用前景,为科学评估干预政策和提供高质量决策依据提供新的思路和方法。

感性工学视域下外卖配送电动车造型设计

目的提出符合用户感性需求特征的外卖配送电动车造型设计方案。方法基于感性工学理论,将感性需求转化成定性分析与定量分析,采用SDM(语意差异法)方法制作调查问卷,收集并筛选描述外卖配送电动车造型的感性意象词汇与样本图片,并结合主成分分析法,提取影响造型设计的主要因子和外卖电动车造型元素,构建感性意象数学模型;通过多元线性回归法,借助SPSS统计软件对四个主要造型构成要素与感性意象进行量化处理。结果对外卖配送电动车的前面板、前大灯、车身架和座垫的造型元素展开分析,设计出与用户“时尚”和“速度”情感需求最匹配的梯形前面板、变异多边形前大灯、多边形车身架和细长型座垫造型元素。结论感性工学不仅能有效挖掘用户需求,而且还能直观表达出感性感受与数值的对应关系,对外卖配送电动车造型要素进行有目的的设计和调整。

斯特林机帽式密封性能分析及回归参数优化设计

为改善斯特林机活塞杆帽式密封性能,首先采用数值仿真分析了5 MPa工质压力下其静、动态力学特性,从而获取了O型圈内径尺寸L_(N)、C型环径向壁厚T和装配过盈量S这3个关键结构参数对密封性能的影响规律。在此基础上,利用回归设计法以配伍面最大接触压力平稳且密封可靠为优化目标,对密封结构的上述3个关键参数进行优化设计以确定其最佳匹配方案,最后通过密封试验台验证了本文优化设计方法的准确性和普适性。结果表明:活塞杆与C型环密封面中间区域上最大接触压力随L_(N)和S的增大而增大,但随T的增大而减小;通过估计回归系数和方差分析(ANOVA)发现,L_(N)对密封性能影响最为显著、S次之、T影响最小;L_(N)和T、L_(N)和S交互项对响应显著,而T和S交互项对响应不显著;当L_(N)为13.745 mm、T为0.40 mm和S为0.020 mm时,优化密封件对应的正行程最大接触压力为9.01 MPa、回程为9.75 MPa,较工程在用密封件(L_(N)=13.780 mm、T=0.50 mm、S=0 mm)最大接触压力分别降低了14.7%和25.5%。实验进一步验证了优化密封件的密封性能和使用寿命均优于工程在用密封件,并且在不同工质压力下优化密封件的接触压力均匀性更好,减摩延寿效果显著,充分证明本文性能分析与优化设计方法准确有效。

国家知识产权战略对高技术产业创新效率的影响——基于时间断点回归设计

在我国从知识产权大国向知识产权强国迈进的关键时期,探究实行国家知识产权战略对高技术产业创新效率的影响,既是推动高技术产业升级的有效手段,也是改革完善知识产权保护与管理制度的内在需求。基于2000—2019年中国28个省市地区高技术产业创新数据,运用时间断点回归方法检验中国实施国家知识产权战略对高技术产业创新效率的影响。研究表明:国家知识产权战略的实施在整体上显著促进高技术产业创新效率提升。区域异质性分析发现,战略实施显著提升了东、西部地区高技术产业的创新效率,但对中部地区创新效率的提升作用不显著。研究结论为优化知识产权政策设计、提高高技术产业的创新能力提供了经验证据。未来应进一步健全知识产权制度体系,并结合区域差异因地制宜制定知识产权政策。