2023: Weather and Climate Extremes Hitting the Globe with Emerging Features

Globally,2023 was the warmest observed year on record since at least 1850 and,according to proxy evidence,possibly of the past 100000 years.As in recent years,the record warmth has again been accompanied with yet more extreme weather and climate events throughout the world.Here,we provide an overview of those of 2023,with details and key background causes to help build upon our understanding of the roles of internal climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.We also highlight emerging features associated with some of these extreme events.Hot extremes are occurring earlier in the year,and increasingly simultaneously in differing parts of the world(e.g.,the concurrent hot extremes in the Northern Hemisphere in July 2023).Intense cyclones are exacerbating precipitation extremes(e.g.,the North China flooding in July and the Libya flooding in September).Droughts in some regions(e.g.,California and the Horn of Africa)have transitioned into flood conditions.Climate extremes also show increasing interactions with ecosystems via wildfires(e.g.,those in Hawaii in August and in Canada from spring to autumn 2023)and sandstorms(e.g.,those in Mongolia in April 2023).Finally,we also consider the challenges to research that these emerging characteristics present for the strategy and practice of adaptation.

On Uzbekistan's Experience Countering Religious Extremism and Terrorism

Since the first years of independence,Uzbekistan began to develop and implement a policy of countering religious extremism and addressing the ideological basis of terrorism.Taking into consideration the complexity of this problem,Uzbekistan is comprehensively combating expressions of extremism and terrorism.

Competitive oxidation behavior of Ni-based superalloy GH4738 at extreme temperature

A high thrust-to-weight ratio poses challenges to the high-temperature performance of Ni-based superalloys. The oxidation behavior of GH4738 at extreme temperatures has been investigated by isothermal and non-isothermal experiments. As a result of the competitive diffusion of alloying elements, the oxide scale included an outermost porous oxide layer (OOL), an inner relatively dense oxide layer (IOL), and an internal oxide zone (IOZ), depending on the temperature and time. A high temperature led to the formation of large voids at the IOL/IOZ interface. At 1200℃, the continuity of the Cr-rich oxide layer in the IOL was destroyed, and thus, spallation occurred. Extension of oxidation time contributed to the size of Al-rich oxide particles with the increase in the IOZ. Based on this finding,the oxidation kinetics of GH4738 was discussed, and the corresponding oxidation behavior at 900-1100℃ was predicted.

Applying Machine Learning Techniques for Religious Extremism Detection on Online User Contents

In this research paper,we propose a corpus for the task of detecting religious extremism in social networks and open sources and compare various machine learning algorithms for the binary classification problem using a previously created corpus,thereby checking whether it is possible to detect extremist messages in the Kazakh language.To do this,the authors trained models using six classic machine-learning algorithms such as Support Vector Machine,Decision Tree,Random Forest,K Nearest Neighbors,Naive Bayes,and Logistic Regression.To increase the accuracy of detecting extremist texts,we used various characteristics such as Statistical Features,TF-IDF,POS,LIWC,and applied oversampling and undersampling techniques to handle imbalanced data.As a result,we achieved 98%accuracy in detecting religious extremism in Kazakh texts for the collected dataset.Testing the developed machine learningmodels in various databases that are often found in everyday life“Jokes”,“News”,“Toxic content”,“Spam”,“Advertising”has also shown high rates of extremism detection.

Extreme Antarctic Cold of Late Winter 2023

Extreme cold temperatures were observed in July and August 2023,coinciding with the WINFLY(winter fly-in)period of mid to late August into September 2023,meaning aircraft operations into McMurdo Station and Phoenix Airfield were adversely impacted.Specifically,with temperatures below−50℃,safe flight operation was not possible because of the risk of failing hydraulics and fuel turning to gel onboard the aircraft.The cold temperatures were measured across a broad area of the Antarctic,from East Antarctica toward the Ross Ice Shelf,and stretching across West Antarctica to the Antarctic Peninsula.A review of automatic weather station measurements and staffed station observations revealed a series of sites recording new record low temperatures.Four separate cold phases were identified,each a few days in duration and occurring from mid-July to the end of August 2023.A brief analysis of 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies shows how the mid-tropospheric atmospheric environment evolves in relation to these extreme cold temperatures.The monthly 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies show strong negative anomalies in August.Examination of composite geopotential height anomalies during each of the four cold phases suggests various factors leading to cold temperatures,including both southerly off-content flow and calm atmospheric conditions.Understanding the atmospheric environment that leads to such extreme cold temperatures can improve prediction of such events and benefit Antarctic operations and the study of Antarctic meteorology and climatology.

Implications of the extremely hot summer of 2022 on urban ozone control in China

Frequent occurrences of extreme heat are causing severe ozone pollution over China.This study examined the driving factors of urban ozone pollution in China during the extremely hot summer of 2022 and the impact of emission control strategies using surface measurements and the GEOS-Chem model.The results show that ozone pollution was extremely severe in summer 2022,with a significant rebound by 12-15 ppbv in the North China Plain(NCP),Yangtze River Delta(YRD),and Sichuan basin(SCB),compared to 2021.Especially over the NCP,the MDA8(maximum daily 8-hourly average)ozone exceeded 160 ppbv,and the number of ozone exceedances was over 42 days.Based on an IPR(integrated process rate)analysis,the authors found that the net chemical production was the dominant factor contributing to the strong ozone increase in summer 2022.For example,in June over the NCP,the net chemical production resulted in an increase by 3.08 Gg d^(−1)(∼270%)in ozone mass change.Sensitivity simulations showed that both NO_(x)(nitrogen oxides)and VOC(volatile organic compound)reductions were important over the NCP,and NO_(x)reductions were more important than VOCs over southern China.To keep the ozone of 2022 at the same level as 2021,a joint reduction of NO_(x)and VOCs by at least 50%-60%would have been required.This study highlights the urgency to develop effective ozone management since extreme heat will become more frequent.

Impacts of Future Changes in Heavy Precipitation and Extreme Drought on the Economy over South China and Indochina

Heavy precipitation and extreme drought have caused severe economic losses over South China and Indochina(INCSC)in recent decades.Given the areas with large gross domestic product(GDP)in the INCSC region are distributed along the coastline and greatly affected by global warming,understanding the possible economic impacts induced by future changes in the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation(RX5day)and the maximum consecutive dry days(CDD)is critical for adaptation planning in this region.Based on the latest data released by phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),future projections of precipitation extremes with bias correction and their impacts on GDP over the INCSC region under the fossil-fueled development Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP5-8.5)are investigated.Results indicate that RX5day will intensify robustly throughout the INCSC region,while CDD will lengthen in most regions under global warming.The changes in climate consistently dominate the effect on GDP over the INCSC region,rather than the change of GDP.If only considering the effect of climate change on GDP,the changes in precipitation extremes bring a larger impact on the economy in the future to the provinces of Hunan,Jiangxi,Fujian,Guangdong,and Hainan in South China,as well as the Malay Peninsula and southern Cambodia in Indochina.Thus,timely regional adaptation strategies are urgent for these regions.Moreover,from the sub-regional average viewpoint,over two thirds of CMIP6 models agree that maintaining a lower global warming level will reduce the economic impacts from heavy precipitation over the INCSC region.

Projected changes in extreme snowfall events over the Tibetan Plateau based on a set of RCM simulations

Extreme snowfall events over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)cause considerable damage to local society and natural ecosystems.In this study,the authors investigate the projected changes in such events over the TP and its surrounding areas based on an ensemble of a set of 21st century climate change projections using a regional climate model,RegCM4.The model is driven by five CMIP5 global climate models at a grid spacing of 25 km,under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways.Four modified ETCCDI extreme indices-namely,SNOWTOT,S1mm,S10mm,and Sx5day-are employed to characterize the extreme snowfall events.RegCM4 generally reproduces the spatial distribution of the indices over the region,although with a tendency of overestimation.For the projected changes,a general decrease in SNOWTOT is found over most of the TP,with greater magnitude and better cross-simulation agreement over the eastern part.All the simulations project an overall decrease in S1mm,ranging from a 25%decrease in the west and to a 50%decrease in the east of the TP.Both S10mm and Sx5day are projected to decrease over the eastern part and increase over the central and western parts of the TP.Notably,S10mm shows a marked increase(more than double)with high cross-simulation agreement over the central TP.Significant increases in all four indices are found over the Tarim and Qaidam basins,and northwestern China north of the TP.The projected changes show topographic dependence over the TP in the latitudinal direction,and tend to decrease/increase in low-/high-altitude areas.

Extreme massive hydraulic fracturing in deep coalbed methane horizontal wells:A case study of the Linxing Block,eastern Ordos Basin,NW China

Deep coal seams show low permeability,low elastic modulus,high Poisson’s ratio,strong plasticity,high fracture initiation pressure,difficulty in fracture extension,and difficulty in proppants addition.We proposed the concept of large-scale stimulation by fracture network,balanced propagation and effective support of fracture network in fracturing design and developed the extreme massive hydraulic fracturing technique for deep coalbed methane(CBM)horizontal wells.This technique involves massive injection with high pumping rate+high-intensity proppant injection+perforation with equal apertures and limited flow+temporary plugging and diverting fractures+slick water with integrated variable viscosity+graded proppants with multiple sizes.The technique was applied in the pioneering test of a multi-stage fracturing horizontal well in deep CBM of Linxing Block,eastern margin of the Ordos Basin.The injection flow rate is 18 m^(3)/min,proppant intensity is 2.1 m^(3)/m,and fracturing fluid intensity is 16.5 m^(3)/m.After fracturing,a complex fracture network was formed,with an average fracture length of 205 m.The stimulated reservoir volume was 1987×10^(4)m^(3),and the peak gas production rate reached 6.0×10^(4)m^(3)/d,which achieved efficient development of deep CBM.

Living in Neoliberal America:Extremism,Pauperization,and Negative Solidarity

This paper illuminates some of the main effects that neoliberalism has on the psychological and socio-economic profile of Americans.It outlines the structural processes that produced the groundwork for today’s enormous popularity of right-wing extremism in the USA.America’s middle-class has turned right-wing extremist during the Trump years and this trend has continued to dominate American politics today.While populism mobilizes feelings of injustice and grievances,the source and commencement of these grievances is the centerpiece of this article.The paper does so by applying Rodrigo Nunes’(2020a)analysis of the effects of Bolsenarismo in Brazil to the American society.The paper differentiates between the effects of individualism,punitivism,and the valorization of order above the law and shows how these trends have influenced preponderant identity traits of Baby Boomers and Generation X.Secondly,the paper focuses on the concept of“negative solidarity”which is one direct consequence of the worldview produced by successful indoctrination of neoliberal values and goes hand in hand with the consequent pauperization of the American worker.The preponderance of negative solidarity remains a key handicap for a democratic future and for any social mobilization efforts within the USA.

Extreme value theory applied to the auroral electrojet indices

The study of extreme weather and space events has gained paramount importance in modern society owing to rapid advances in high technology.Understanding and describing exceptional occurrences plays a crucial role in making decisive assessments of their potential impact on technical,economic,and social aspects in various fields.This research focuses on analyzing the hourly values of the auroral electrojet(AE)geomagnetic index from 1957 to 2019 by using the peak over threshold method in extreme value theory.By fitting the generalized Pareto distribution to extreme AE values,shape parameter indices were derived,revealing negative values that establish an upper bound for this time series.Consequently,it became evident that the AE values had reached a plateau,suggesting that extreme events exceeding the established upper limit are rare.As a result,although the need for diligent precautions to mitigate the consequences of such extreme events persists,surpassing the upper limit of AE values becomes increasingly challenging.It is also possible to observe an aurora in the middle-and low-latitude regions during the maximum period of the AE index.

Prevention of Violent Extremism and Human Rights Protection

In the context of globalization, violent extremist forces pose a serious threat to the fundamental human rights of the people all over the world. Strengthening human rights protection requires reinforcing the momentum to crack down and prevent the violent acts of extremist forces. As one of the countries that is the victim of violence by extremists, China has taken a series of measures to tackle the challenges of violent extremism. As President Xi Jinping has pointed out, 'the realization of the full enjoyment of human rights by human beings is the common goal of human society.' While establishing a community of common destiny for all mankind, the international community should take action to effectively address the root causes of violent extremism, maintain a peaceful and secure development environment, and defend the basic human rights and well-being of all peoples, so as to ensure a safe and brighter future for all.

Health Effects of Extreme Low Temperatures and Cold Waves on Respiratory Diseases

Climate change is the most significant threat to public health and exerts myriad influences on health,including the occurrence of extreme temperature events.Studies have demonstrated that populations will experience significantly severe cold waves in the future^([1]),increasing the risk of respiratory diseases.

Multiple mixed state variable incremental integration for reconstructing extreme multistability in a novel memristive hyperchaotic jerk system with multiple cubic nonlinearity

Memristor-based chaotic systems with infinite equilibria are interesting because they generate extreme multistability.Their initial state-dependent dynamics can be explained in a reduced-dimension model by converting the incremental integration of the state variables into system parameters.However,this approach cannot solve memristive systems in the presence of nonlinear terms other than the memristor term.In addition,the converted state variables may suffer from a degree of divergence.To allow simpler mechanistic analysis and physical implementation of extreme multistability phenomena,this paper uses a multiple mixed state variable incremental integration(MMSVII)method,which successfully reconstructs a four-dimensional hyperchaotic jerk system with multiple cubic nonlinearities except for the memristor term in a three-dimensional model using a clever linear state variable mapping that eliminates the divergence of the state variables.Finally,the simulation circuit of the reduced-dimension system is constructed using Multisim simulation software and the simulation results are consistent with the MATLAB numerical simulation results.The results show that the method of MMSVII proposed in this paper is useful for analyzing extreme multistable systems with multiple higher-order nonlinear terms.

Publisher’s Note:“Benchmark simulations of radiative transfer in participating binary stochastic mixtures in two dimensions”[Matter Radiat.Extremes 9, 067802 (2024)]

This article was originally published online on 30 August 2024.Due to a production error,as originally published the author list was not in its intended order.All online versions of this article were corrected on 9 September 2024 and it appears correctly in print.AIP Publishing apologizes for this error.

Lower Extremity Arterial Disease in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes: Prevalence and Associated Factors at the Libreville University Hospital Center

Introduction: Lower extremity arterial disease in diabetic patients has distinct characteristics. Objectives: To study the hospital frequency of lower extremity arterial disease and identify associated factors in diabetic patients at the Libreville University Hospital Center (CHUL). Materials and Methods: This was a cross-sectional study conducted from July 1, 2023, to January 31, 2024, in the endocrinology department of the CHUL. All patients with type 2 diabetes over the age of 18 admitted to this department, regardless of the reason for hospitalization, who provided informed consent, were included. Socio-demographic data and cardiovascular risk factors were recorded. Personal and family cardiovascular history and functional symptoms were investigated. The physical examination included measuring blood pressure, heart rate, and the ankle-brachial index in all patients. Results: A total of 219 patients were included, of whom 75 had lower extremity arterial disease, representing a prevalence of 34.24%. It was compensated in 28 cases (37.33%) and decompensated in 39 patients (52%). In eight cases (10.67%), there was critical chronic ischemia. Cardiovascular risk factors associated with diabetes were physical inactivity (89.5%), hypertension (55.25%), overweight (49.77%), obesity (22.84%), and smoking (10.04%). In multivariate analysis, only hypertension (OR = 2.09;95% CI: 1.05 - 4.17;p = 0.035) and LDL cholesterol (OR = 2.75;95% CI: 1.10 - 6.85;p = 0.03) were significantly associated with lower extremity arterial disease in diabetics at the University Hospital of Libreville. Conclusion: Lower extremity arterial disease is common in diabetic patients at the University Hospital of Libreville. It is often asymptomatic, thus requiring systematic screening.[-rId11-]

Assessing the Variability of Extreme Weather Events and Its Influence on Marine Accidents along the Northern Coast of Tanzania

The marine accidents are among the main components of the Zanzibar Disaster Management Policy (2011) and the Zanzibar Blue Economy Policy (2020). These policies aimed to institute legal frame works and procedures for reducing both the frequency of marine accidents and their associated fatalities. These fatalities include deaths, permanent disabilities and loss of properties which may result into increased poverty levels as per the sustainable development goal one (SDG1) which stipulates on ending the poverty in all its forms everywhere. Thus, in the way to support these Government efforts, the influence of climate and weather on marine accidents along Zanzibar and Pemba Channels was investigated. The study used the 10 years (2013-2022) records of daily rainfall and hourly wind speed acquired from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) (for the observation stations of Zanzibar, Pemba, Dares Salaam and Tanga), and the significant wave heights data, which was freely downloaded from Globally Forecasting System (GFS-World model of 13 km resolution). The marine accident records were collected from TASAC and Zanzibar Maritime Authority (ZMA), and the anecdotal information was collected from heads of quay and boat captains in different areas of Zanzibar. The Mann Kendal test, was used to determine the slopes and trends direction of used weather parameters, while the Pearson correlations analysis and t-tests were used to understand the significance of the underlying relationship between the weather and marine accidents. The paired t-test was used to evaluate the extent to which weather parameters affect the marine accidents. Results revealed that the variability of extreme weather events (rainfall, ocean waves and wind speed) was seen to be among the key factors for most of the recorded marine accidents. For instance, in Pemba high rainfall showed an increasing trend of extreme rainfall events, while Zanzibar has shown a decreasing trend of these events. As for extreme wind events, results show that Dar es Salaam and Tanga had an increasing trend, while Zanzibar and Pemba had shown a decreasing trend. As for the monthly variability of frequencies of extreme rainfall events, March to May (MAM) season was shown to have the highest frequencies over all stations with the peaks at Zanzibar and Pemba. On the other hand, high frequency of extreme wind speed was observed from May to September with peaks in June to July, and the highest strength was observed during 09:00 to 15:00 GMT. Moreover, results revealed an increasing trend of marine accidents caused by bad weather except during November. Also, results showed that bad weather conditions contributed to 48 (32%) of all 150 recorded accidents. Further results revealed significant correlation between the extreme wind and marine accidents, with the highest strong correlation of r = 0.71 (at p ≤ 0.007) and r = 0.75 (at p ≤ 0.009) at Tanga and Pemba, indicating the occurrence of more marine accidents at the Pemba channel. Indeed, strong correlation of r = 0.6 between extreme rainfall events and marine accidents was shown in Pemba, while the correlations between extremely significant wave heights and marine accidents were r = 0.41 (at p ≤ 0.006) and r = 0.34 (p ≤ 0.0006) for Pemba and Zanzibar Channel, respectively. In conclusion, the study has shown high influence between marine accidents and bad weather events with more impacts in Pemba and Zanzibar. Thus, the study calls for more work to be undertaken to raise the awareness on marine accidents as a way to alleviate the poverty and enhance the sustainable blue economy.

The Fight Against Terrorism and Extremism and Human Rights Protection in Xinjiang

March 2019 Contents Foreword I.Xinjiang Has Long Been an Inseparable Part of Chinese Territory II.The Origin of Terrorism and Extremism in Xinjiang III.Violent Terrorism and Religious Extremism Are Grave Abuses of Human Rights IV.Striking at Terrorism and Extremism in Accordance with the Law V.Giving Top Priority to a Preventive Counterterrorism Approach VI.Finding Experience for Counterterrorism and De-radicalization VII.

Evaluation and Projection of Population Exposure to Temperature Extremes over the Beijing−Tianjin−Hebei Region Using a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model RegCM4 Ensemble

Temperature extremes over rapidly urbanizing regions with high population densities have been scrutinized due to their severe impacts on human safety and economics.First of all,the performance of the regional climate model RegCM4 with a hydrostatic or non-hydrostatic dynamic core in simulating seasonal temperature and temperature extremes was evaluated over the historical period of 1991–99 at a 12-km spatial resolution over China and a 3-km resolution over the Beijing−Tianjin−Hebei(JJJ)region,a typical urban agglomeration of China.Simulations of spatial distributions of temperature extremes over the JJJ region using RegCM4 with hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic cores showed high spatial correlations of more than 0.8 with the observations.Under a warming climate,temperature extremes of annual maximum daily temperature(TXx)and summer days(SU)in China and the JJJ region showed obvious increases by the end of the 21st century while there was a general reduction in frost days(FD).The ensemble of RegCM4 with different land surface components was used to examine population exposure to temperature extremes over the JJJ region.Population exposure to temperature extremes was found to decrease in 2091−99 relative to 1991−99 over the majority of the JJJ region due to the joint impacts of increases in temperature extremes over the JJJ and population decreases over the JJJ region,except for downtown areas.Furthermore,changes in population exposure to temperature extremes were mainly dominated by future population changes.Finally,we quantified changes in exposure to temperature extremes with temperature increase over the JJJ region.This study helps to provide relevant policies to respond future climate risks over the JJJ region.

Ultimate Strength of Hull Perforated Plate Under Extreme Cyclic Loading

In this study, the influence of opening parameters on the ultimate strength of perforated plates subjected to extreme cyclic loading in the presence of material kinematic hardening and isotro pic hardening was analyzed. It is found that the ultimate strength of the perforated plates decreases rapidly and stabilizes in the first four cycles. Plates with oblong openings have a greater ultimate strength compared to plates with rectangular openings, while the relative strengthening ratio decreases over the duration of the cycle. The location of the openings is also an important parameter that affects the strength of the structure, as the plates with openings close to the edges in the longitudinal direction have higher strengths, while in the transverse direction the strengths are higher when the openings are close to the center. Among the three opening-strengthening methods compared, the Carling stiffener method maintains a better strengthening effect under cyclic loads for many periods.