New Developments in the Trumpification of the US Republican Party

The prominent performance of former US President Donald J.Trump in the 2024 presidential election cycle ref lects the ongoing developments of the Trumpification of the Republican Party(GOP).Since Trump left office,the Trumpification of the GOP has continued.In terms of ideological shaping,Trumpification is ref lected in the fact that the political stance of the GOP is dominated by Trump.In terms of personal influence,Trumpification is manifested by the overall acceptance of GOP elites and voters toward Trump's presidential candidacy,notwithstanding a decrease in their satisfaction with him.The recent developments in Trumpification are intricately linked to Trump's influence on the GOP's political ecology,such as the formation of a new GOP coalition and the reshaping of GOP elite composition.Additionally,these developments are also inf luenced by specific political factors,including the unique circumstances of the 2020 presidential election that led to Tr ump's“quasi-incumbent”status and the economic and immigration issues in the 2024 election that favor Trump.The role Trump plays in the 2024 election and its outcome will be critical in determining whether the inf luence of Trumpification,especially Trump himself,will persist or undergo changes.

The Republican Party’s Hard-Line Stance toward China

In recent years,the Republican Party of the United States has held a negative perception of China,passed confrontational policies targeting China,and maintained a hard-line stance toward China.With this hard-line stance,the Republican Party and United States conservatives have sought to ignite a new culture war related to foreign policy and national security and gain political leverage amidst a climate of political polarization.The Republican Party’s strategy has not only intensified partisan conflicts and accelerated societal collapse in the United States but has also obstructed the development of China-US relations.Consequently,the China factor has transformed the United States’national security strategy to an unprecedented degree.In the near future,the United States’policy toward China will become intimately tied to the vicissitudes of the Republican Party and the political actions of powerful men in the United States.

美国两党对台政策的差异及影响

In the context of the whole-of-government strategic approach the United States(US)currently applies toward China,the Democratic and Republican parties have reached a consensus on“using Taiwan to contain China,”compromising the integrity of the one-China policy and seriously eroding the political foundations of China–US relations.However,considerable differences persist between the two parties regarding Taiwan policy.The Republicans,as represented by Donald Trump,have appeared more radical and more straightforward,whereas the incumbent Biden administration of the Democratic Party has shown significant duplicity.Democrats in the US Congress have introduced relatively fewer Taiwan-related bills than their Republican counterparts;by comparison,some Republican lawmakers have even introduced resolutions calling for resuming“diplomatic ties”with Taiwan.The Taiwan policy gap between the Democratic and Republican parties mirrors their differences on China policy:liberal think tanks advocate for“strategic ambiguity”on Taiwan,but conservatives back“strategic clarity.”And the gap also ref lects the shifting lobbying priorities of Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party.Looking ahead to the upcoming decade,the Democratic and Republican par ties will continue to compete to“support Taiwan,”thus rendering the Taiwan question even more dangerous.After 2024,if Democrats remain in power,they may hasten the“internationalization”of the Taiwan question;otherwise,if Republicans return to the White House and both chambers of Congress,China and the US may find their relationship even more confrontational.Although the political situation in Taiwan will very unlikely have any fundamental impact on the Taiwan Strait,it will,to a certain extent,influence the intensity of China–US rivalry.