A systematic machine learning method for reservoir identification and production prediction

Reservoir identification and production prediction are two of the most important tasks in petroleum exploration and development.Machine learning(ML)methods are used for petroleum-related studies,but have not been applied to reservoir identification and production prediction based on reservoir identification.Production forecasting studies are typically based on overall reservoir thickness and lack accuracy when reservoirs contain a water or dry layer without oil production.In this paper,a systematic ML method was developed using classification models for reservoir identification,and regression models for production prediction.The production models are based on the reservoir identification results.To realize the reservoir identification,seven optimized ML methods were used:four typical single ML methods and three ensemble ML methods.These methods classify the reservoir into five types of layers:water,dry and three levels of oil(I oil layer,II oil layer,III oil layer).The validation and test results of these seven optimized ML methods suggest the three ensemble methods perform better than the four single ML methods in reservoir identification.The XGBoost produced the model with the highest accuracy;up to 99%.The effective thickness of I and II oil layers determined during the reservoir identification was fed into the models for predicting production.Effective thickness considers the distribution of the water and the oil resulting in a more reasonable production prediction compared to predictions based on the overall reservoir thickness.To validate the superiority of the ML methods,reference models using overall reservoir thickness were built for comparison.The models based on effective thickness outperformed the reference models in every evaluation metric.The prediction accuracy of the ML models using effective thickness were 10%higher than that of reference model.Without the personal error or data distortion existing in traditional methods,this novel system realizes rapid analysis of data while reducing the time required to resolve reservoir classification and production prediction challenges.The ML models using the effective thickness obtained from reservoir identification were more accurate when predicting oil production compared to previous studies which use overall reservoir thickness.

Prediction model for corrosion rate of low-alloy steels under atmospheric conditions using machine learning algorithms

This work constructed a machine learning(ML)model to predict the atmospheric corrosion rate of low-alloy steels(LAS).The material properties of LAS,environmental factors,and exposure time were used as the input,while the corrosion rate as the output.6 dif-ferent ML algorithms were used to construct the proposed model.Through optimization and filtering,the eXtreme gradient boosting(XG-Boost)model exhibited good corrosion rate prediction accuracy.The features of material properties were then transformed into atomic and physical features using the proposed property transformation approach,and the dominant descriptors that affected the corrosion rate were filtered using the recursive feature elimination(RFE)as well as XGBoost methods.The established ML models exhibited better predic-tion performance and generalization ability via property transformation descriptors.In addition,the SHapley additive exPlanations(SHAP)method was applied to analyze the relationship between the descriptors and corrosion rate.The results showed that the property transformation model could effectively help with analyzing the corrosion behavior,thereby significantly improving the generalization ability of corrosion rate prediction models.

Reservoir Characteristics and Favorable Area Prediction of Chang-6 Reservoir in Zhouguan Area, Ordos Basin

Based on the analysis of a large number of core samples, logging results, logging interpretation data and dynamic data in the study area, the characteristics of Chang 6 reservoir in Zhouguan area of Baihe area are studied, and the favorable reservoir areas in the study area are predicted. The results show that the lithology of Chang 6 reservoir is mainly light gray and gray fine-grained to very fine-grained feldspar lithic sandstone. The pore types are mainly residual intergranular pores and feldspar dissolved pores, including debris dissolved pores and microfractures. The porosity and permeability values are low, which belongs to low porosity-low permeability and ultra-low permeability reservoirs. According to the reservoir distribution characteristics and related data, the Chang 6 reservoir in the study area is divided into two types, mainly Class II and Class III reservoirs. The comprehensive evaluation predicts that the spatial distribution of the favorable area of Chang 6 reservoir is not uniform, but the distribution area is large, which has broad exploration and development value, and provides the necessary conditions for the distribution study of the favorable oil-bearing zone in this area and the preparation for the next exploration and development.

A transient production prediction method for tight condensate gas wells with multiphase flow

Considering the phase behaviors in condensate gas reservoirs and the oil-gas two-phase linear flow and boundary-dominated flow in the reservoir,a method for predicting the relationship between oil saturation and pressure in the full-path of tight condensate gas well is proposed,and a model for predicting the transient production from tight condensate gas wells with multiphase flow is established.The research indicates that the relationship curve between condensate oil saturation and pressure is crucial for calculating the pseudo-pressure.In the early stage of production or in areas far from the wellbore with high reservoir pressure,the condensate oil saturation can be calculated using early-stage production dynamic data through material balance models.In the late stage of production or in areas close to the wellbore with low reservoir pressure,the condensate oil saturation can be calculated using the data of constant composition expansion test.In the middle stages of production or when reservoir pressure is at an intermediate level,the data obtained from the previous two stages can be interpolated to form a complete full-path relationship curve between oil saturation and pressure.Through simulation and field application,the new method is verified to be reliable and practical.It can be applied for prediction of middle-stage and late-stage production of tight condensate gas wells and assessment of single-well recoverable reserves.

Exploring reservoir computing:Implementation via double stochastic nanowire networks

Neuromorphic computing,inspired by the human brain,uses memristor devices for complex tasks.Recent studies show that self-organizing random nanowires can implement neuromorphic information processing,enabling data analysis.This paper presents a model based on these nanowire networks,with an improved conductance variation profile.We suggest using these networks for temporal information processing via a reservoir computing scheme and propose an efficient data encoding method using voltage pulses.The nanowire network layer generates dynamic behaviors for pulse voltages,allowing time series prediction analysis.Our experiment uses a double stochastic nanowire network architecture for processing multiple input signals,outperforming traditional reservoir computing in terms of fewer nodes,enriched dynamics and improved prediction accuracy.Experimental results confirm the high accuracy of this architecture on multiple real-time series datasets,making neuromorphic nanowire networks promising for physical implementation of reservoir computing.

Research on Quantitative Identification of Three-Dimensional Connectivity of Fractured-Vuggy Reservoirs

The fractured-vuggy carbonate oil resources in the western basin of China are extremely rich.The connectivity of carbonate reservoirs is complex,and there is still a lack of clear understanding of the development and topological structure of the pore space in fractured-vuggy reservoirs.Thus,effective prediction of fractured-vuggy reservoirs is difficult.In view of this,this work employs adaptive point cloud technology to reproduce the shape and capture the characteristics of a fractured-vuggy reservoir.To identify the complex connectivity among pores,fractures,and vugs,a simplified one-dimensional connectivity model is established by using the meshless connection element method(CEM).Considering that different types of connection units have different flow characteristics,a sequential coupling calculation method that can efficiently calculate reservoir pressure and saturation is developed.By automatic history matching,the dynamic production data is fitted in real-time,and the characteristic parameters of the connection unit are inverted.Simulation results show that the three-dimensional connectivity model of the fractured-vuggy reservoir built in this work is as close as 90%of the fine grid model,while the dynamic simulation efficiency is much higher with good accuracy.

Hydrocarbon accumulation characteristics in basement reservoirs and exploration targets of deep basement reservoirs in onshore China

Based on the global basement reservoir database and the dissection of basement reservoirs in China,the characteristics of hydrocarbon accumulation in basement reservoirs are analyzed,and the favorable conditions for hydrocarbon accumulation in deep basement reservoirs are investigated to highlight the exploration targets.The discovered basement reservoirs worldwide are mainly buried in the Archean and Precambrian granitic and metamorphic formations with depths less than 4500 m,and the relatively large reservoirs have been found in rift,back-arc and foreland basins in tectonic active zones of the Meso-Cenozoic plates.The hydrocarbon accumulation in basement reservoirs exhibits the characteristics in three aspects.First,the porous-fractured reservoirs with low porosity and ultra-low permeability are dominant,where extensive hydrocarbon accumulation occurred during the weathering denudation and later tectonic reworking of the basin basement.High resistance to compaction allows the physical properties of these highly heterogeneous reservoirs to be independent of the buried depth.Second,the hydrocarbons were sourced from the formations outside the basement.The source-reservoir assemblages are divided into contacted source rock-basement and separated source rock-basement patterns.Third,the abnormal high pressure in the source rock and the normal–low pressure in the basement reservoirs cause a large pressure difference between the source rock and the reservoirs,which is conducive to the pumping effect of hydrocarbons in the deep basement.The deep basement prospects are mainly evaluated by the factors such as tectonic activity of basement,source-reservoir combination,development of large deep faults(especially strike-slip faults),and regional seals.The Precambrian crystalline basements at the margin of the intracontinental rifts in cratonic basins,as well as the Paleozoic folded basements and the Meso-Cenozoic fault-block basements adjacent to the hydrocarbon generation depressions,have favorable conditions for hydrocarbon accumulation,and thus they are considered as the main targets for future exploration of deep basement reservoirs.

A review of reservoir damage during hydraulic fracturing of deep and ultra-deep reservoirs

Deep and ultra-deep reservoirs have gradually become the primary focus of hydrocarbon exploration as a result of a series of significant discoveries in deep hydrocarbon exploration worldwide.These reservoirs present unique challenges due to their deep burial depth(4500-8882 m),low matrix permeability,complex crustal stress conditions,high temperature and pressure(HTHP,150-200℃,105-155 MPa),coupled with high salinity of formation water.Consequently,the costs associated with their exploitation and development are exceptionally high.In deep and ultra-deep reservoirs,hydraulic fracturing is commonly used to achieve high and stable production.During hydraulic fracturing,a substantial volume of fluid is injected into the reservoir.However,statistical analysis reveals that the flowback rate is typically less than 30%,leaving the majority of the fluid trapped within the reservoir.Therefore,hydraulic fracturing in deep reservoirs not only enhances the reservoir permeability by creating artificial fractures but also damages reservoirs due to the fracturing fluids involved.The challenging“three-high”environment of a deep reservoir,characterized by high temperature,high pressure,and high salinity,exacerbates conventional forms of damage,including water sensitivity,retention of fracturing fluids,rock creep,and proppant breakage.In addition,specific damage mechanisms come into play,such as fracturing fluid decomposition at elevated temperatures and proppant diagenetic reactions at HTHP conditions.Presently,the foremost concern in deep oil and gas development lies in effectively assessing the damage inflicted on these reservoirs by hydraulic fracturing,comprehending the underlying mechanisms,and selecting appropriate solutions.It's noteworthy that the majority of existing studies on reservoir damage primarily focus on conventional reservoirs,with limited attention given to deep reservoirs and a lack of systematic summaries.In light of this,our approach entails initially summarizing the current knowledge pertaining to the types of fracturing fluids employed in deep and ultra-deep reservoirs.Subsequently,we delve into a systematic examination of the damage processes and mechanisms caused by fracturing fluids within the context of hydraulic fracturing in deep reservoirs,taking into account the unique reservoir characteristics of high temperature,high pressure,and high in-situ stress.In addition,we provide an overview of research progress related to high-temperature deep reservoir fracturing fluid and the damage of aqueous fracturing fluids to rock matrix,both artificial and natural fractures,and sand-packed fractures.We conclude by offering a summary of current research advancements and future directions,which hold significant potential for facilitating the efficient development of deep oil and gas reservoirs while effectively mitigating reservoir damage.

An attention-based teacher-student model for multivariate short-term landslide displacement prediction incorporating weather forecast data

Predicting the displacement of landslide is of utmost practical importance as the landslide can pose serious threats to both human life and property.However,traditional methods have the limitation of random selection in sliding window selection and seldom incorporate weather forecast data for displacement prediction,while a single structural model cannot handle input sequences of different lengths at the same time.In order to solve these limitations,in this study,a new approach is proposed that utilizes weather forecast data and incorporates the maximum information coefficient(MIC),long short-term memory network(LSTM),and attention mechanism to establish a teacher-student coupling model with parallel structure for short-term landslide displacement prediction.Through MIC,a suitable input sequence length is selected for the LSTM model.To investigate the influence of rainfall on landslides during different seasons,a parallel teacher-student coupling model is developed that is able to learn sequential information from various time series of different lengths.The teacher model learns sequence information from rainfall intensity time series while incorporating reliable short-term weather forecast data from platforms such as China Meteorological Administration(CMA)and Reliable Prognosis(https://rp5.ru)to improve the model’s expression capability,and the student model learns sequence information from other time series.An attention module is then designed to integrate different sequence information to derive a context vector,representing seasonal temporal attention mode.Finally,the predicted displacement is obtained through a linear layer.The proposed method demonstrates superior prediction accuracies,surpassing those of the support vector machine(SVM),LSTM,recurrent neural network(RNN),temporal convolutional network(TCN),and LSTM-Attention models.It achieves a mean absolute error(MAE)of 0.072 mm,root mean square error(RMSE)of 0.096 mm,and pearson correlation coefficients(PCCS)of 0.85.Additionally,it exhibits enhanced prediction stability and interpretability,rendering it an indispensable tool for landslide disaster prevention and mitigation.

Fine quantitative characterization of high-H2S gas reservoirs under the influence of liquid sulfur deposition and adsorption

In order to clarify the influence of liquid sulfur deposition and adsorption to high-H2S gas reservoirs,three types of natural cores with typical carbonate pore structures were selected for high-temperature and high-pressure core displacement experiments.Fine quantitative characterization of the cores in three steady states(original,after sulfur injection,and after gas flooding)was carried out using the nuclear magnetic resonance(NMR)transverse relaxation time spectrum and imaging,X-ray computer tomography(CT)of full-diameter cores,basic physical property testing,and field emission scanning electron microscopy imaging.The loss of pore volume caused by sulfur deposition and adsorption mainly comes from the medium and large pores with sizes bigger than 1000μm.Liquid sulfur has a stronger adsorption and deposition ability in smaller pore spaces,and causes greater damage to reservoirs with poor original pore structures.The pore structure of the three types of carbonate reservoirs shows multiple fractal characteristics.The worse the pore structure,the greater the change of internal pore distribution caused by liquid sulfur deposition and adsorption,and the stronger the heterogeneity.Liquid sulfur deposition and adsorption change the pore size distribution,pore connectivity,and heterogeneity of the rock,which further changes the physical properties of the reservoir.After sulfur injection and gas flooding,the permeability of TypeⅠreservoirs with good physical properties decreased by 16%,and that of TypesⅡandⅢreservoirs with poor physical properties decreased by 90%or more,suggesting an extremely high damage.This indicates that the worse the initial physical properties,the greater the damage of liquid sulfur deposition and adsorption.Liquid sulfur is adsorbed and deposited in different types of pore space in the forms of flocculence,cobweb,or retinitis,causing different changes in the pore structure and physical property of the reservoir.

Pore pressure prediction in offshore Niger delta using data-driven approach: Implications on drilling and reservoir quality

Despite exploration and production success in Niger Delta,several failed wells have been encountered due to overpressures.Hence,it is very essential to understand the spatial distribution of pore pressure and the generating mechanisms in order to mitigate the pitfalls that might arise during drilling.This research provides estimates of pore pressure along three offshore wells using the Eaton's transit time method,multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network(MLP-ANN)and random forest regression(RFR)algorithms.Our results show that there are three pressure magnitude regimes:normal pressure zone(hydrostatic pressure),transition pressure zone(slightly above hydrostatic pressure),and over pressured zone(significantly above hydrostatic pressure).The top of the geopressured zone(2873 mbRT or 9425.853 ft)averagely marks the onset of overpressurization with the excess pore pressure above hydrostatic pressure(P∗)varying averagely along the three wells between 1.06−24.75 MPa.The results from the three methods are self-consistent with strong correlation between the Eaton's method and the two machine learning models.The models have high accuracy of about>97%,low mean absolute percentage error(MAPE<3%)and coefficient of determination(R2>0.98).Our results have also shown that the principal generating mechanisms responsible for high pore pressure in the offshore Niger Delta are disequilibrium compaction,unloading(fluid expansion)and shale diagenesis.

Note on:“Ballistic model for the prediction of penetration depth and residual velocity in adobe:A new interpretation of the ballistic resistance of earthen masonry”

A recently published modeling approach for the penetration into adobe and previous approaches implicitly criticized are reviewed and discussed.This article contains a note on the paper titled“Ballistic model for the prediction of penetration depth and residual velocity in adobe:A new interpretation of the ballistic resistance of earthen masonry”(DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dt.2018.07.017).Reply to the Note from Li Piani et al is linked to this article.

Cardiovascular computed tomography in cardiovascular disease:An overview of its applications from diagnosis to prediction

Cardiovascular computed tomography angiography(CTA)is a widely used imaging modality in the diagnosis of cardiovascular disease.Advancements in CT imaging technology have further advanced its applications from high diagnostic value to minimising radiation exposure to patients.In addition to the standard application of assessing vascular lumen changes,CTA-derived applications including 3D printed personalised models,3D visualisations such as virtual endoscopy,virtual reality,augmented reality and mixed reality,as well as CT-derived hemodynamic flow analysis and fractional flow reserve(FFRCT)greatly enhance the diagnostic performance of CTA in cardiovascular disease.The widespread application of artificial intelligence in medicine also significantly contributes to the clinical value of CTA in cardiovascular disease.Clinical value of CTA has extended from the initial diagnosis to identification of vulnerable lesions,and prediction of disease extent,hence improving patient care and management.In this review article,as an active researcher in cardiovascular imaging for more than 20 years,I will provide an overview of cardiovascular CTA in cardiovascular disease.It is expected that this review will provide readers with an update of CTA applications,from the initial lumen assessment to recent developments utilising latest novel imaging and visualisation technologies.It will serve as a useful resource for researchers and clinicians to judiciously use the cardiovascular CT in clinical practice.

Reservoir Quality Controlling Factor of the Asmari Reservoir in an Oil Field in Dezful Embayment, SW Iran

The Asmari Formation Oligo-Miocene in age is one of the most important reservoir rocks in SW Iran and Zagros basin and composed of carbonate rocks and locally sandstones and evaporates. In this research, reservoir quality controlling factors have been investigated in a well in one of the oil fields in Dezful Embayment, SW Iran. Based on this research, depositional environment, diagenesis and fracturing have been affected on reservoir quality. 3 distinct depositional settings can be recognized in the studied interval including tidal flat, lagoon, and shoal. Among these depositional setting, shoal environment with ooid grainstone microfacies along with interparticle porosity shows good reservoir characteristics. Diagenetic processes also play an important role on reservoir quality;dolomitization and dissolution have positive effects on porosity and enhances reservoir quality, while cementation, anhydritization and compaction have negative effect on it. Fracturing is another important factor affected on the carbonate reservoirs especially in the Asmari Formation.

Development and validation of a model integrating clinical and coronary lesion-based functional assessment for longterm risk prediction in PCI patients

OBJECTIVES To establish a scoring system combining the ACEF score and the quantitative blood flow ratio(QFR) to improve the long-term risk prediction of patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention(PCI).METHODS In this population-based cohort study, a total of 46 features, including patient clinical and coronary lesion characteristics, were assessed for analysis through machine learning models. The ACEF-QFR scoring system was developed using 1263consecutive cases of CAD patients after PCI in PANDA Ⅲ trial database. The newly developed score was then validated on the other remaining 542 patients in the cohort.RESULTS In both the Random Forest Model and the Deep Surv Model, age, renal function(creatinine), cardiac function(LVEF)and post-PCI coronary physiological index(QFR) were identified and confirmed to be significant predictive factors for 2-year adverse cardiac events. The ACEF-QFR score was constructed based on the developmental dataset and computed as age(years)/EF(%) + 1(if creatinine ≥ 2.0 mg/d L) + 1(if post-PCI QFR ≤ 0.92). The performance of the ACEF-QFR scoring system was preliminarily evaluated in the developmental dataset, and then further explored in the validation dataset. The ACEF-QFR score showed superior discrimination(C-statistic = 0.651;95% CI: 0.611-0.691, P < 0.05 versus post-PCI physiological index and other commonly used risk scores) and excellent calibration(Hosmer–Lemeshow χ^(2)= 7.070;P = 0.529) for predicting 2-year patient-oriented composite endpoint(POCE). The good prognostic value of the ACEF-QFR score was further validated by multivariable Cox regression and Kaplan–Meier analysis(adjusted HR = 1.89;95% CI: 1.18–3.04;log-rank P < 0.01) after stratified the patients into high-risk group and low-risk group.CONCLUSIONS An improved scoring system combining clinical and coronary lesion-based functional variables(ACEF-QFR)was developed, and its ability for prognostic prediction in patients with PCI was further validated to be significantly better than the post-PCI physiological index and other commonly used risk scores.

A HEVC Video Steganalysis Method Using the Optimality of Motion Vector Prediction

Among steganalysis techniques,detection against MV(motion vector)domain-based video steganography in the HEVC(High Efficiency Video Coding)standard remains a challenging issue.For the purpose of improving the detection performance,this paper proposes a steganalysis method that can perfectly detectMV-based steganography in HEVC.Firstly,we define the local optimality of MVP(Motion Vector Prediction)based on the technology of AMVP(Advanced Motion Vector Prediction).Secondly,we analyze that in HEVC video,message embedding either usingMVP index orMVD(Motion Vector Difference)may destroy the above optimality of MVP.And then,we define the optimal rate of MVP as a steganalysis feature.Finally,we conduct steganalysis detection experiments on two general datasets for three popular steganographymethods and compare the performance with four state-ofthe-art steganalysis methods.The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed feature set.Furthermore,our method stands out for its practical applicability,requiring no model training and exhibiting low computational complexity,making it a viable solution for real-world scenarios.

A deep multimodal fusion and multitasking trajectory prediction model for typhoon trajectory prediction to reduce flight scheduling cancellation

Natural events have had a significant impact on overall flight activity,and the aviation industry plays a vital role in helping society cope with the impact of these events.As one of the most impactful weather typhoon seasons appears and continues,airlines operating in threatened areas and passengers having travel plans during this time period will pay close attention to the development of tropical storms.This paper proposes a deep multimodal fusion and multitasking trajectory prediction model that can improve the reliability of typhoon trajectory prediction and reduce the quantity of flight scheduling cancellation.The deep multimodal fusion module is formed by deep fusion of the feature output by multiple submodal fusion modules,and the multitask generation module uses longitude and latitude as two related tasks for simultaneous prediction.With more dependable data accuracy,problems can be analysed rapidly and more efficiently,enabling better decision-making with a proactive versus reactive posture.When multiple modalities coexist,features can be extracted from them simultaneously to supplement each other’s information.An actual case study,the typhoon Lichma that swept China in 2019,has demonstrated that the algorithm can effectively reduce the number of unnecessary flight cancellations compared to existing flight scheduling and assist the new generation of flight scheduling systems under extreme weather.

Microplastics in sediment of the Three Gorges Reservoir:abundance and characteristics under different environmental conditions

Freshwater microplastic pollution is an urgent issue of global concern,and research on the distribution in reservoirs is lacking.We investigated the microplastic pollution levels in wet sediments collected from the Three Gorges Reservoir,the largest reservoir of China.Results show that microplastics were ubiquitous in the sediments of the Three Gorges Reservoir,and their abundance ranged from 59 to 276 pp/kg(plastic particles per kg,dry weight).Economic development and total population were important factors affecting the spatial heterogeneity of microplastic abundance,and the contribution of large cities along the reservoir to microplastic pollution should be paid with more attention.Fibrous microplastics were the most abundant type of microplastic particles in reservoir sediments,whereas polystyrene,polypropylene,and polyamide were the main types of polymers.The apparent spatial heterogeneity in morphology and color of microplastics is attributed to different anthropogenic or landbased pollution sources.Moreover,the accumulation of microplastics near the inlet of tributaries reflects the role of potential contributors of tributaries.More importantly,multiple bisphenols(BPs)and heavy metals detected at the microplastic surfaces indicate that microplastics can act as carriers of these pollutants in the environment in the same way as sediments did,which may alter the environmental fate and toxicity of these pollutants.Therefore,we conclude that the Three Gorges Reservoir had been contaminated with microplastics,which posed a stress risk for organisms who ingest them along with their associated pollutants(BPs,heavy metals).

Advancing Malaria Prediction in Uganda through AI and Geospatial Analysis Models

The resurgence of locally acquired malaria cases in the USA and the persistent global challenge of malaria transmission highlight the urgent need for research to prevent this disease. Despite significant eradication efforts, malaria remains a serious threat, particularly in regions like Africa. This study explores how integrating Gregor’s Type IV theory with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) improves our understanding of disease dynamics, especially Malaria transmission patterns in Uganda. By combining data-driven algorithms, artificial intelligence, and geospatial analysis, the research aims to determine the most reliable predictors of Malaria incident rates and assess the impact of different factors on transmission. Using diverse predictive modeling techniques including Linear Regression, K-Nearest Neighbor, Neural Network, and Random Forest, the study found that;Random Forest model outperformed the others, demonstrating superior predictive accuracy with an R2 of approximately 0.88 and a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.0534, Antimalarial treatment was identified as the most influential factor, with mosquito net access associated with a significant reduction in incident rates, while higher temperatures correlated with increased rates. Our study concluded that the Random Forest model was effective in predicting malaria incident rates in Uganda and highlighted the significance of climate factors and preventive measures such as mosquito nets and antimalarial drugs. We recommended that districts with malaria hotspots lacking Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) coverage prioritize its implementation to mitigate incident rates, while those with high malaria rates in 2020 require immediate attention. By advocating for the use of appropriate predictive models, our research emphasized the importance of evidence-based decision-making in malaria control strategies, aiming to reduce transmission rates and save lives.

Development,validation,and transportability of several machine-learned,non-exercise-based VO_(2max)prediction models for older adults

Background:There exist few maximal oxygen uptake(VO_(2max))non-exercise-based prediction equations,fewer using machine learning(ML),and none specifically for older adults.Since direct measurement of VO_(2max)is infeasible in large epidemiologic cohort studies,we sought to develop,validate,compare,and assess the transportability of several ML VO_(2max)prediction algorithms.Methods:The Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging(BLSA)participants with valid VO2_(max)tests were included(n=1080).Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator,linear-and tree-boosted extreme gradient boosting,random forest,and support vector machine(SVM)algorithms were trained to predict VO_(2max)values.We developed these algorithms for:(a)the overall BLSA,(b)by sex,(c)using all BLSA variables,and(d)variables common in aging cohorts.Finally,we quantified the associations between measured and predicted VO_(2max)and mortality.Results:The age was 69.0±10.4 years(mean±SD)and the measured VO_(2max)was 21.6±5.9 mL/kg/min.Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator,linear-and tree-boosted extreme gradient boosting,random forest,and support vector machine yielded root mean squared errors of 3.4 mL/kg/min,3.6 mL/kg/min,3.4 mL/kg/min,3.6 mL/kg/min,and 3.5 mL/kg/min,respectively.Incremental quartiles of measured VO_(2max)showed an inverse gradient in mortality risk.Predicted VO_(2max)variables yielded similar effect estimates but were not robust to adjustment.Conclusion:Measured VO_(2max)is a strong predictor of mortality.Using ML can improve the accuracy of prediction as compared to simpler approaches but estimates of association with mortality remain sensitive to adjustment.Future studies should seek to reproduce these results so that VO_(2max),an important vital sign,can be more broadly studied as a modifiable target for promoting functional resiliency and healthy aging.