Monitoring seismicity in the southern Sichuan Basin using a machine learning workflow

Monitoring seismicity in real time provides significant benefits for timely earthquake warning and analyses.In this study,we propose an automatic workflow based on machine learning(ML)to monitor seismicity in the southern Sichuan Basin of China.This workflow includes coherent event detection,phase picking,and earthquake location using three-component data from a seismic network.By combining Phase Net,we develop an ML-based earthquake location model called Phase Loc,to conduct real-time monitoring of the local seismicity.The approach allows us to use synthetic samples covering the entire study area to train Phase Loc,addressing the problems of insufficient data samples,imbalanced data distribution,and unreliable labels when training with observed data.We apply the trained model to observed data recorded in the southern Sichuan Basin,China,between September 2018 and March 2019.The results show that the average differences in latitude,longitude,and depth are 5.7 km,6.1 km,and 2 km,respectively,compared to the reference catalog.Phase Loc combines all available phase information to make fast and reliable predictions,even if only a few phases are detected and picked.The proposed workflow may help real-time seismic monitoring in other regions as well.

Dynamically triggered seismicity on a tectonic scale:A review

Earthquakes triggered by dynamic disturbances have been confirmed by numerous observations and experiments.In the past several decades,earthquake triggering has attracted increasing attention of scholars in relation to exploring the mechanism of earthquake triggering,earthquake prediction,and the desire to use the mechanism of earthquake triggering to reduce,prevent,or trigger earthquakes.Natural earthquakes and large‐scale explosions are the most common sources of dynamic disturbances that trigger earthquakes.In the past several decades,some models have been developed,including static,dynamic,quasi‐static,and other models.Some reviews have been published,but explosiontriggered seismicity was not included.In recent years,some new results on earthquake triggering have emerged.Therefore,this paper presents a new review to reflect the new results and include the content of explosion‐triggered earthquakes for the reference of scholars in this area.Instead of a complete review of the relevant literature,this paper primarily focuses on the main aspects of dynamic earthquake triggering on a tectonic scale and makes some suggestions on issues that need to be resolved in this area in the future.

The seismicity in the middle section of the Altyn Tagh Fault system revealed by a dense nodal seismic array

The left-lateral Altyn Tagh Fault(ATF) system is the northern boundary of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, separating the Tarim Basin and the Qaidam Basin. The middle section of ATF has not recorded any large earthquakes since1598 AD, so the potential seismic hazard is unclear. We develope an earthquake catalog using continuous waveform data recorded by the Tarim-Altyn-Qaidam dense nodal seismic array from September 17 to November23, 2021 in the middle section of ATF. With the machine learning-based picker, phase association, location, match and locate workflow, we detecte 233 earthquakes with M_L-1–3, far more than 6 earthquakes in the routine catalog. Combining with focal mechanism solutions and the local fault structure, we find that seismic events are clustered along the ATF with strike-slip focal mechanisms and on the southern secondary faults with thrusting focal mechanisms. This overall seismic activity in the middle section of the ATF might be due to the northeastward transpressional motion of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau block at the western margin of the Qaidam Basin.

South China Sea Typhoon Hagibis enhanced Xinfengjiang Reservoir seismicity

There was an evident increase in the number of earthquakes in the Xinfengjiang Reservoir from June to July 2014 after the landing of Typhoon Hagibis.To understand the spatial and temporal evolution of this microseismicity,we built a high-precision earthquake catalog for 2014 and relocated 2275 events using recently developed methods for event picking and catalog construction.Seismicity occurred in the southeastern part of the reservoir,with the preferred fault plane orientation aligned along the Heyuan Fault.The total seismic energy peaked when the typhoon passed through the reservoir,and seismicity correlated with typhoon energy.In contrast,a limited seismic response was observed during the later Typhoon Rammasun.Combining data regarding the water level in the Xinfengjiang Reservoir and seismicity frequency changes in the Taiwan region during these two typhoon events,we suggest that typhoon activity may increase microseism energy by impacting fault stability around the Xinfengjiang Reservoir.Whether a fault can be activated also depends on how close the stress accumulation is to its failure point.

Implications for fault reactivation and seismicity induced by hydraulic fracturing

Evaluating the physical mechanisms that link hydraulic fracturing(HF) operations to induced earthquakes and the anticipated form of the resulting events is significant in informing subsurface fluid injection operations. Current understanding supports the overriding role of the effective stress magnitude in triggering earthquakes, while the impact of change rate of effective stress has not been systematically addressed. In this work, a modified critical stiffness was brought up to investigate the likelihood, impact,and mitigation of induced seismicity during and after hydraulic fracturing by developing a poroelastic model based on rate-and-state fraction law and linear stability analysis. In the new criterion, the change rate of effective stress was considered a key variable to explore the evolution of this criterion and hence the likelihood of instability slip of fault. A coupled fluid flow-deformation model was used to represent the entire hydraulic fracturing process in COMSOL Multiphysics. The possibility of triggering an earthquake throughout the entire hydraulic fracturing process, from fracturing to cessation, was investigated considering different fault locations, orientations, and positions along the fault. The competition between the effects of the magnitude and change rate of effective stress was notable at each fracturing stage. The effective stress magnitude is a significant controlling factor during fracturing events, with the change rate dominating when fracturing is suddenly started or stopped. Instability dominates when the magnitude of the effective stress increases(constant injection at each fracturing stage) and the change rate of effective stress decreases(the injection process is suddenly stopped). Fracturing with a high injection rate, a fault adjacent to the hydraulic fracturing location and the position of the junction between the reservoir and fault are important to reduce the Coulomb failure stress(CFS) and enhance the critical stiffness as the significant disturbance of stresses at these positions in the coupled process. Therefore,notable attention should be given to the injection rate during fracturing, fault position, and position along faults as important considerations to help reduce the potential for induced seismicity. Our model was verified and confirmed using the case of the Longmaxi Formation in the Sichuan Basin, China, in which the reported microseismic data were correlated with high critical stiffness values. This work supplies new thoughts of the seismic risk associated with HF engineering.

Seismicity patterns before the 2021 Fin (Iran) doublet earthquakes using the region-time-length and time-to-failure methods

Knowledge regarding earthquake hazards and seismicity is crucial for crisis management, and the occurrence of foreshocks, seismic activity patterns, and spatiotemporal variations in seismic activity have been studied. Furthermore, the estimation of the region-time-length (RTL) parameter has been proposed to detect seismic quiescence before the occurrence of a large earthquake. In addition, the time-to-failure method has been used to estimate the time occurrence of large earthquakes. Hence, in this study, to gain deeper insight into seismic activity in the southern Zagros region, we utilized the RTL algorithm to identify the quiescence and activation phases leading to the Fin doublet earthquakes. Temporal variations in the RTL parameter showed two significant anomalies. One corresponded to the occurrence time of the first earthquake (2017-12-12);the other anomaly was associated with the occurrence time of the second event (2021-11-14). Based on a negative value of the RTL parameter observed in the vicinity of the Fin epicenters (2021), seismic quiescence (a decrease in seismicity compared to the preceding background rate) was identified. The spatial distribution of the RTL prognostic parameters confirms the appearance of seismic quiescence surrounding the epicenter of the Fin doublet earthquakes (2021). The time-to-failure method was designed using precursory events that describe the acceleration of the seismic energy release before the mainshock. Using the time-to-failure method for the earthquake catalog, it was possible to estimate both the magnitude and time of failure of the Fin doublet. Hence, the time-tofailure technique can be a useful supplementary method to the RTL algorithm for determining the characteristics of impending earthquakes.

Inelastic displacement ratio of low-to mid-rise BRBFs designed under variable levels of seismicity

Buckling-restrained braces(BRBs)have shown their capability to provide building structures with stiffness,strength,and ductility.Estimating the seismic drifts of buckling-restrained braced frames(BRBFs)is an important design step to control structural and non-structural damage.In current practice of seismic design,the estimation of seismic drifts of BRBFs is performed by using empirical calculations that are independent upon either the type of the structural system or the design level of seismicity.In these empirical calculations,the seismic drifts are estimated by amplifying the reduced elastic drifts obtained under design lateral loading with a displacement amplification factor(DAF).The value of DAF is considered equal to the product of the response modification factor R and the inelastic displacement ratioρ.The goal of the current research is to assess the value ofρfor low-to mid-rise BRBFs designed under low and high levels of seismicity.This goal has been achieved by conducting a series of elastic and inelastic time-history analyses pertaining to an ensemble of earthquake records on 3-,6-and 9-story BRBFs.The results indicate that theρ-ratio increases with an increase in design seismic intensity and an increase in experienced inelasticity.The range ofρfor low seismicity designs ranges from 0.63 to 0.9,while for high seismicity designs this range stretches from 0.83 to 1.29.It has been found that the consideration of a generalρ-ratio of 1.0 is a reasonable estimation for the design of the BRBFs considered in this study.

A 15-year-Long catalog of seismicity in the Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone(ETSZ)using matched filter detection

We present a detailed catalog of 13671 earthquakes in the Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone(ETSZ)that spans January 1,2005 to July 31,2020.We apply a matched filter detection technique on over 15 years of continuous data,resulting in arguably the most complete catalog of seismicity in the ETSZ yet.The magnitudes of newly detected events are determined by computing the amplitude ratio between the detections and templates using a principal component fit.We also compute the b-value for the new catalog and comparatively relocate a subset of newly detected events using XCORLOC and hypoDD,which shows a more defined structure at depth.We find the greatest concentration along and to the east of the New York-Alabama Lineament,as defined by the magnetic anomaly,supporting the argument that this feature likely is related to the generation of seismicity in the ETSZ.We examine seismicity in the vicinity of the Watts Bar Reservoir,which is located about 5 km from the epicenter of the M_(W) 4.4 December 12,2018 Decatur,Tennessee earthquake,and find possible evidence for reservoir modulated seismicity in this region.We also examine seismicity in the entire ETSZ to search for a correlation between shallow earthquakes and seasonal hydrologic changes.Our results show limited evidence for hydrologicallydriven shallow seismicity due to seasonal groundwater levels in the ETSZ,which contradicts previous studies hypothesizing that most intraplate earthquakes are associated with the dynamics of hydrologic cycles.

Seismicity and seismogenic mechanism of the M_S 6.0 Luxian earthquake on September 16, 2021

Based on the seismic data recorded by the China Earthquake Networks Center(CENC) in the Luxian area from January 2009 to October 2021,the 3D V_P,V_S, V_P/V_S structures and seismic locations of the area are obtained by joint inversion using the V_P/V_S model consistency-constrained double-difference tomography method(tomoDDMC).The earthquakes in the study area are mainly concentrated at a depth of 2-6 km,and the focal depth is generally shallow.The Ms 6.0 Luxian earthquake occurred at the transition zone of high-and low-velocity anomalies and the aftershock sequence was distributed along the edge of the low-V_P zone.A small number of foreshocks occurred on the west side of the M_S 6.0 Luxian earthquake,while most of the aftershocks were distributed on the east side of the M_S 6.0 Luxian earthquake.The aftershock sequence consisted of three seismic bands with different trends,and the overall distribution was in a NWW direction,which was inconsistent with the spatial distribution of the main active faults nearby.In addition,the spatiotemporal distribution of earthquakes and the variation of b-values are closely related to the industrial water injection activities in the study area,reflecting the activation of pre-existing hidden faults under certain tectonic and stress environments leading to seismic activities in the area.

A machine learning-based study of multifactor susceptibility and risk control of induced seismicity in unconventional reservoirs

A comprehensive dataset from 594 fracturing wells throughout the Duvernay Formation near Fox Creek, Alberta, is collected to quantify the influences of geological, geomechanical, and operational features on the distribution and magnitude of hydraulic fracturing-induced seismicity. An integrated machine learning-based investigation is conducted to systematically evaluate multiple factors that contribute to induced seismicity. Feature importance indicates that a distance to fault, a distance to basement, minimum principal stress, cumulative fluid injection, initial formation pressure, and the number of fracturing stages are among significant model predictors. Our seismicity prediction map matches the observed spatial seismicity, and the prediction model successfully guides the fracturing job size of a new well to reduce seismicity risks. This study can apply to mitigating potential seismicity risks in other seismicity-frequent regions.

Introduction to a recently released dataset entitled CSNCD:A Comprehensive Dataset of Chinese Seismic Network

China and its adjacent regions are heavily affected by earthquake disasters,which has led to strong demand and vigorous development of the Chinese Seismic Network(CSN).Since 2004,China Earthquake Networks Center(CENC)has been authorized by China Earthquake Administration(CEA)to take charge of CSN management,mainly observing product output and quality control.

Probabilistic analysis of tunnel face seismic stability in layered rock masses using Polynomial Chaos Kriging metamodel

Face stability is an essential issue in tunnel design and construction.Layered rock masses are typical and ubiquitous;uncertainties in rock properties always exist.In view of this,a comprehensive method,which combines the Upper bound Limit analysis of Tunnel face stability,the Polynomial Chaos Kriging,the Monte-Carlo Simulation and Analysis of Covariance method(ULT-PCK-MA),is proposed to investigate the seismic stability of tunnel faces.A two-dimensional analytical model of ULT is developed to evaluate the virtual support force based on the upper bound limit analysis.An efficient probabilistic analysis method PCK-MA based on the adaptive Polynomial Chaos Kriging metamodel is then implemented to investigate the parameter uncertainty effects.Ten input parameters,including geological strength indices,uniaxial compressive strengths and constants for three rock formations,and the horizontal seismic coefficients,are treated as random variables.The effects of these parameter uncertainties on the failure probability and sensitivity indices are discussed.In addition,the effects of weak layer position,the middle layer thickness and quality,the tunnel diameter,the parameters correlation,and the seismic loadings are investigated,respectively.The results show that the layer distributions significantly influence the tunnel face probabilistic stability,particularly when the weak rock is present in the bottom layer.The efficiency of the proposed ULT-PCK-MA is validated,which is expected to facilitate the engineering design and construction.

An adaptive physics-informed deep learning method for pore pressure prediction using seismic data

Accurate prediction of formation pore pressure is essential to predict fluid flow and manage hydrocarbon production in petroleum engineering.Recent deep learning technique has been receiving more interest due to the great potential to deal with pore pressure prediction.However,most of the traditional deep learning models are less efficient to address generalization problems.To fill this technical gap,in this work,we developed a new adaptive physics-informed deep learning model with high generalization capability to predict pore pressure values directly from seismic data.Specifically,the new model,named CGP-NN,consists of a novel parametric features extraction approach(1DCPP),a stacked multilayer gated recurrent model(multilayer GRU),and an adaptive physics-informed loss function.Through machine training,the developed model can automatically select the optimal physical model to constrain the results for each pore pressure prediction.The CGP-NN model has the best generalization when the physicsrelated metricλ=0.5.A hybrid approach combining Eaton and Bowers methods is also proposed to build machine-learnable labels for solving the problem of few labels.To validate the developed model and methodology,a case study on a complex reservoir in Tarim Basin was further performed to demonstrate the high accuracy on the pore pressure prediction of new wells along with the strong generalization ability.The adaptive physics-informed deep learning approach presented here has potential application in the prediction of pore pressures coupled with multiple genesis mechanisms using seismic data.

Seismic performance evaluation of water supply pipes installed in a full-scale RC frame structure based on a shaking table test

As an important part of nonstructural components,the seismic response of indoor water supply pipes deserves much attention.This paper presents shaking table test research on water supply pipes installed in a full-scale reinforced concrete(RC)frame structure.Different material pipes and different methods for penetrating the reinforced concrete floors are combined to evaluate the difference in seismic performance.Floor response spectra and pipe acceleration amplification factors based on test data are discussed and compared with code provisions.A seismic fragility study of displacement demand is conducted based on numerical simulation.The acceleration response and displacement response of different combinations are compared.The results show that the combination of different pipe materials and different passing-through methods can cause obvious differences in the seismic response of indoor riser pipes.

Time-domain dynamic constitutive model suitable for mucky soil site seismic response

Soil nonlinear behavior displays noticeable effects on the site seismic response.This study proposes a new functional expression of the skeleton curve to replace the hyperbolic skeleton curve.By integrating shear modulus and combining the dynamic skeleton curve and the damping degradation coefficient,the constitutive equation of the logarithmic dynamic skeleton can be obtained,which considers the damping effect in a soil dynamics problem.Based on the finite difference method and the multi-transmitting boundary condition,a 1D site seismic response analysis program called Soilresp1D has been developed herein and used to analyze the time-domain seismic response in three types of sites.At the same time,this study also provides numerical simulation results based on the hyperbolic constitutive model and the equivalent linear method.The results verify the rationality of the new soil dynamic constitutive model.It can analyze the mucky soil site nonlinear seismic response,reflecting the deformation characteristics and damping effect of the silty soil.The hysteresis loop area is more extensive,and the residual strain is evident.

Numerical modelling of spatially and temporally distributed on‑fault induced seismicity:implication for seismic hazards

Induced seismicity is strongly related to various engineering projects that cause anthropogenic in-situ stress change at a great depth.Hence,there is a need to estimate and mitigate the associated risks.In the past,various simulation methods have been developed and applied to induced seismicity analysis,but there is still a fundamental diference between simulation results and feld observations in terms of the spatial distribution of seismic events and its frequency.The present study aims to develop a method to simulate spatially distributed on-fault seismicity whilst reproducing a complex stress state in the fault zone.Hence,an equivalent continuum model is constructed,based on a discrete fracture network within a fault damage zone,by employing the crack tensor theory.A fault core is simulated at the center of the model as a discontinuous plane.Using the model,a heterogeneous stress state with stress anomalies in the fault zone is frst simulated by applying tractions on the model outer boundaries.Subsequently,the efective normal stress on the fault plane is decreased in a stepwise manner to induce slip.The simulation result is validated in terms of the b-value and other seismic source parameters,hence demonstrating that the model can reproduce spatially and temporally distributed on-fault seismicity.Further analysis on the parameters shows the variation of frequency-magnitude distribution before the occurrence of large seismic events.This variation is found to be consistent with feld observations,thus suggesting the potential use of this simulation method in evaluating the risk for seismic hazards in various engineering projects.

Combined approach of poroelastic and earthquake nucleation applied to the reservoir-induced seismic activity in the Val d’Agri area,Italy

In this work,an approach is developed to study the seismicity associated with the impoundment and level changes of a water reservoir(reservoir induced seismicity e RIS).The proposed methodology features a combination of a semi-analytical poroelastic model with an earthquake nucleation approach based on rate-and-state frictional law.The combined approach was applied to the case of the Pertusillo Lake,located in the Val d’Agri area(Italy),whose large seasonal water level changes are believed to induce protracted micro-seismicity(local magnitude ML<3).Results show that the lake impoundment in 1962 could have produced up to 0.5 bar(1 bar=100 kPa)changes in Coulomb failure stress(DCFS),while the seasonal water level variation is responsible for variation up to 0.05 bar.Modeling results of the seismicity rates in 20012014 show that the observed earthquakes are well correlated with the modeled DCFS.Finally,the reason that the seismicity is only observed at southwest of the Pertusillo Lake is provided,which is likely attributed to different rock lithologies and depletion caused by significant hydrocarbon exploitation in the northeastern sector of the lake.

Potential of the Arkhangelsk seismic network for European Arctic monitoring

The Arkhangelsk Seismic Network(ASN)of the N.Laverov Federal Center for Integrated Arctic Research of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences,founded in 2003,includes 10 permanent seismic stations located on the coasts of the White,Barents,and Kara Seas and on the Arctic archipelagos of Novaya Zemlya,Franz Josef Land,and Severnaya Zemlya.The network is registered with the International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks and the International Seismological Center.We used not only ASN data to process earthquakes but also the waveforms of various international seismic stations.The 13,000 seismic events were registered using ASN data for 2012-2022,and for 5,500 of them,we determined the parameters of the earthquake epicenters from the European Arctic.The spatial distribution of epicenters shows that the ASN monitors not only the main seismically active zones but also weak seismicity on the shelf of the Barents and Kara Seas.The representative magnitude of ASN was ML,rep=3.5.The level of microseismic noise has seasonal variations that affect the registration capabilities of each station included in the ASN and the overall sensitivity of the network as a whole.In summer,the sensitivity of the ASN decreased owing to the increasing microseismic and ambient noises,whereas in winter,the sensitivity of the ASN increased significantly because of the decrease.

The role of temperature‐enhanced fault closure in promoting postinjection pressure diffusion and seismicity in enhanced geothermal systems

Post shut‐in seismic events in enhanced geothermal systems(EGSs)occur predominantly at the outer rim of the co‐injection seismic cloud.The concept of postinjection fracture and fault closure near the injection well has been proposed and validated as a mechanism for enhancing post shut‐in pressure diffusion that promotes seismic hazard.This phenomenon is primarily attributed to the poro‐elastic closure of fractures resulting from the reduction of wellbore pressure after injection termination.However,the thermal effects in EGSs,mainly including heat transfer and thermal stress,may not be trivial and their role in postinjection fault closure and pressure evolution needs to be explored.In this study,we performed numerical simulations to analyze the relative importance of poro‐elasticity,heat transfer,and thermo‐elasticity in promoting postinjection fault closure and pressure diffusion.The numerical model wasfirst validated against analytical solutions in terms offluid pressure diffusion and against heatedflow‐through experiments in terms of thermal processes.We then quantified and distinguished the contribution of each individual mechanism by comparing four different shut‐in scenarios simulated under different coupled conditions.Our results highlight the importance of poro‐elastic fault closure in promoting postinjection pressure buildup and seismicity,and suggest that heat transfer can further augment the fault closure‐induced pressure increase and thus potentially intensify the postinjection seismic hazard,with minimal contribution from thermo‐elasticity.

Resilience-incorporated seismic risk assessment of precast concrete frames with“dry”connections

A resilience-incorporated risk assessment framework is proposed and demonstrated in this study to manifest the advantageous seismic resilience of precast concrete frame(PCF)structures with“dry”connections in terms of their low damage and rapid recovery.The framework integrates various uncertainties in the seismic hazard,fragility,capacity,demand,loss functions,and post-earthquake recovery.In this study,the PCF structures are distinguished from ordinary reinforced concrete frame(RCF)structures by characterizing multiple limit states for the PCF based on its unique damage mechanisms.Accordingly,probabilistic story-wise pushover analyses are performed to yield story-wise capacities for the predefined limit states.In the seismic resilience analysis,a step-wise recovery model is proposed to idealize the functionality recovery process,with separate considerations of the repair and non-repair events.The recovery model leverages the economic loss and downtime to delineate the stochastic post-earthquake recovery curves for the resilience loss estimation.As such,contingencies in the probabilistic post-earthquake repairs are incorporated and the empirical judgments on the recovery parameters are largely circumvented.The proposed framework is demonstrated through a comparative study between two“dry”connected PCFs and one RCF designed as alternative structural systems for a prototype building.The results from the risk quantification indicate that the PCFs show reduced loss hazards and lower expected losses relative to the RCF.Particularly,the PCF equipped with energy dissipation devices at the“dry”connections largely reduces the expected economic loss,downtime,and resilience loss by 29%,56%,and 60%,respectively,compared to the RCF.