This paper establishes a short-term prediction model of weekly retail prices for eggs based on chaotic neural network with the weekly retail prices of eggs from January 2008 to December 2012 in China.In the process of...This paper establishes a short-term prediction model of weekly retail prices for eggs based on chaotic neural network with the weekly retail prices of eggs from January 2008 to December 2012 in China.In the process of determining the structure of the chaotic neural network,the number of input layer nodes of the network is calculated by reconstructing phase space and computing its saturated embedding dimension,and then the number of hidden layer nodes is estimated by trial and error.Finally,this model is applied to predict the retail prices of eggs and compared with ARIMA.The result shows that the chaotic neural network has better nonlinear fitting ability and higher precision in the prediction of weekly retail price of eggs.The empirical result also shows that the chaotic neural network can be widely used in the field of short-term prediction of agricultural prices.展开更多
Using the Hodges Ajne testing method, the uniformity of China retail price index was tested. The result, that population is submitting to uniform distribution, was obtained. The uniformity of CRPI indicates that the g...Using the Hodges Ajne testing method, the uniformity of China retail price index was tested. The result, that population is submitting to uniform distribution, was obtained. The uniformity of CRPI indicates that the general price level is stable in the Ninth Five Year Plan. Finally, the reasons causing the uniformity was analyzed.展开更多
Renewable energy,such as wind and solar energy,may vary signifi cantly over time and locations depending on the weather and the climate conditions.This leads to the supply uncertainty in the electricity(power) market ...Renewable energy,such as wind and solar energy,may vary signifi cantly over time and locations depending on the weather and the climate conditions.This leads to the supply uncertainty in the electricity(power) market with renewable energy integrated to power grid.In this paper,electricity in the market is classified into two types:stablesupply electricity(SSE) and unstablesupply electricity(USE).We investigate the investment and pricing strategies under the electricity supply uncertainty in wholesale and retail electricity market.In particular,our model combines the wholesale and retail market and capture the dominant players,i.e.,consumers,power plant(power operator),and electricity supplier.To derive the market behaviors of these players,we formulate the market decision problems as a multistage Stackelberg game.By solving the game model,we obtain the optimal,with closedform,wholesale investment and retail pricing strategy for the operator.We also obtain the energy supplier's best price mechanism numerically under certain assumption.We fi nd the price of SSE being about 1.4 times higher than that of USE will benefi t energy supplieroptimally,under which power plant's optimal strategy of investing is to purchase USE about 4.5 times much more than SSE.展开更多
In 2010,the garlic,bean and ginger became more expensive than ever,which made some people's life harder.In response to such phenomena,the retail price and wholesale price at the producers' end,the retail price...In 2010,the garlic,bean and ginger became more expensive than ever,which made some people's life harder.In response to such phenomena,the retail price and wholesale price at the producers' end,the retail price and wholesale price at distributors' end,and consumption related data(disposable income,consumption expenditure,fresh vegetables amount from 2004 to 2011 were compared and analyzed in this paper.Results showed that the average price(selling price,wholesale price and retail price) of five kinds of vegetables generally rose.There was certain differences in the price change range.Since 2004,especially in 2009 the vegetable prices had been so high that it had influenced the life of low income families in China.展开更多
The paper explores the optimal price strategy under the price-matching policy. First, the paper formulates the demand function under the price match policy and then discovers the retailer’s best response facing the p...The paper explores the optimal price strategy under the price-matching policy. First, the paper formulates the demand function under the price match policy and then discovers the retailer’s best response facing the price-matching pressure. From the theoretical analysis, we discover how the number of retailers plays an important role during the competition. When only two retailers are involved, the final prices may not converge to a single value. However, when more retailers are involved, the final price will converge to a single value. We also use numerical studies to illuminate the change of the prices over the time period, the sensitivity of the final price to the increment/decrement of initial prices. Finally, we provide managerial suggestions to both producers and retailers.展开更多
基金financially supported by the National KeyTechnology R&D Program during the 12th Five-Year Plan period(2012BAH20B04)the 948 Program of Ministry of Agriculture,China(2013-Z1)
文摘This paper establishes a short-term prediction model of weekly retail prices for eggs based on chaotic neural network with the weekly retail prices of eggs from January 2008 to December 2012 in China.In the process of determining the structure of the chaotic neural network,the number of input layer nodes of the network is calculated by reconstructing phase space and computing its saturated embedding dimension,and then the number of hidden layer nodes is estimated by trial and error.Finally,this model is applied to predict the retail prices of eggs and compared with ARIMA.The result shows that the chaotic neural network has better nonlinear fitting ability and higher precision in the prediction of weekly retail price of eggs.The empirical result also shows that the chaotic neural network can be widely used in the field of short-term prediction of agricultural prices.
文摘Using the Hodges Ajne testing method, the uniformity of China retail price index was tested. The result, that population is submitting to uniform distribution, was obtained. The uniformity of CRPI indicates that the general price level is stable in the Ninth Five Year Plan. Finally, the reasons causing the uniformity was analyzed.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)No.61372116 and NSFC No.61201202 and NSFC No.61320001the Importation and Development of High-Caliber Talents Project of Beijing Municipal Institutions under Grant YETP0110
文摘Renewable energy,such as wind and solar energy,may vary signifi cantly over time and locations depending on the weather and the climate conditions.This leads to the supply uncertainty in the electricity(power) market with renewable energy integrated to power grid.In this paper,electricity in the market is classified into two types:stablesupply electricity(SSE) and unstablesupply electricity(USE).We investigate the investment and pricing strategies under the electricity supply uncertainty in wholesale and retail electricity market.In particular,our model combines the wholesale and retail market and capture the dominant players,i.e.,consumers,power plant(power operator),and electricity supplier.To derive the market behaviors of these players,we formulate the market decision problems as a multistage Stackelberg game.By solving the game model,we obtain the optimal,with closedform,wholesale investment and retail pricing strategy for the operator.We also obtain the energy supplier's best price mechanism numerically under certain assumption.We fi nd the price of SSE being about 1.4 times higher than that of USE will benefi t energy supplieroptimally,under which power plant's optimal strategy of investing is to purchase USE about 4.5 times much more than SSE.
基金Supported by Modern Agricultural Industrial Technological System in Shandong Province[Shandong Agriculture Science and Technology No.(2010)33]
文摘In 2010,the garlic,bean and ginger became more expensive than ever,which made some people's life harder.In response to such phenomena,the retail price and wholesale price at the producers' end,the retail price and wholesale price at distributors' end,and consumption related data(disposable income,consumption expenditure,fresh vegetables amount from 2004 to 2011 were compared and analyzed in this paper.Results showed that the average price(selling price,wholesale price and retail price) of five kinds of vegetables generally rose.There was certain differences in the price change range.Since 2004,especially in 2009 the vegetable prices had been so high that it had influenced the life of low income families in China.
文摘The paper explores the optimal price strategy under the price-matching policy. First, the paper formulates the demand function under the price match policy and then discovers the retailer’s best response facing the price-matching pressure. From the theoretical analysis, we discover how the number of retailers plays an important role during the competition. When only two retailers are involved, the final prices may not converge to a single value. However, when more retailers are involved, the final price will converge to a single value. We also use numerical studies to illuminate the change of the prices over the time period, the sensitivity of the final price to the increment/decrement of initial prices. Finally, we provide managerial suggestions to both producers and retailers.
