Determination of Weak Points Based on Risk Theory and Application to Transmission Network Planning

In the traditional power transmission network planning,deterministic analysis methods are widely used.In such methods,all contingencies are deemed to have the same occurrence probability,which is not reasonable.In this paper,risk assessment is introduced to the process of transmission network planning considering the probabilistic characteristics of contingencies.Risk indices are given to determine the weak points of the transmission network based on local information,such as bus risk,line overload risk,contingency severity.The indices are calculated by the optimal cost control method based on risk theory,which can help planners to quickly determine weak points in the planning and find solution to them.For simplification,only line overload violation is considered.Finally,the proposed method is validated by an IEEE-RTS test system and a real power system in China from two aspects.In the first case,the original system is evaluated by the proposed method to find the weak points,and then four planning schemes are established,among which the best scheme is selected.In the second case,four initial planning schemes are established by combining the experiences of planners,and after the evaluation by using the proposed method,the best planning scheme is improved based on the information of weak points in the initial schemes,and the risk of improved scheme is reduced from 42 531.86 MW·h per year to 4 431.26 MW·h per year.

Analysis of Stock Splits Based on Risk Theory: Empirical Evidence from the Chinese Stock Markets

The paper first analyzes price change due to stock splits in Chinese stock markets,which shows stock prices typically go up for stock splits.Then theoretical analyses based on risk theory are presented to explain the reason,where the method comes from a new perspective and obtained theoretical conclusions show that stock splits typically make stock price go up if risk-compensation function is convex,and go down if risk-compensation function is concave.Stock prices typically go up for stock splits because risk-compensation functions are mainly convex.The obtained conclusions are consistent with the known results in the last three decades.

Composition ship collision risk based on fuzzy theory

Despite of modern navigation devices, there are problems in navigation of vessels in waterways due to the geographical structures, disturbances in water, dynamic nature, and heavily environmental influenced sea traffic. Even though all vessels are equipped with modern navigation devices, the accidents are reported caused by various reasons and mainly by human factor according to investigation. We propose an effective and efficient composition collision risk calculation method for finding the collision probability and avoiding the collision between ships in possible collision situations. The proposed composition collision risk calculation method at ship's position using combination of fuzzy and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods. The algorithm is straightforward to implement and is shown to be effective in automatic ship handling for ships involved in complex navigation situations. Experiments are carried out with indigenous data and the results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Construction of Public Security Risk Governance System under the View of Risk Society Theory

With the development of economy,China has to fight against the increasing public security risk. The theory of risk society points out that the traditional system of hierarchical management should be transformed into the governance system led by government and participated in by multiple parties to avoid and reduce risk in modern society. In order to achieve modernization of the national governance system and capacity,we have to deal with these two important subjects,that is,what can we learn from the Western risk society theory and how to establish a scientific and efficient public security risk management system based on the characteristics of modern public security risk.

Risk and Intellectual Property in Technical Standard Competition： A Game Theory Perspective

Technical standard is typically characterized by network effect.The key point for a technical standard is the consumers' choice,which is based on consumers' maximum benefits.When a technical standard becomes a national standard,its interests have been integrated into the national interests.National interests are divided into economic profits and security factors.From the perspective of consumers' choice,this paper deals with the main factors which affect the result of technical standard competition- the risk and profits of intellectual property based on the assumption of bounded rationality and dynamic game theory.

Game Theory Based Sensor Management in Reducing Target Threat Level Assessment Risk

Sensor management schemes are calculated to reduce target threat level assessment risk in this paper.Hidden Markov model and risk theory are combined to build the target threat level model firstly.Then the target threat level estimation risk is defined.And the sensor management schemes are optimized with the smallest target threat level assessment risk.What’s more,the game theory is applied to calculate the optimal sensor management scheme.Some simulations are conducted to prove that the proposed sensor management method is effective.

Identification of Critical Lines in Power System Based on Optimal Load Shedding

Based on risk theory, considering the probability of an accident and the severity of the sequence, combining N-1 and N-2 security check, this paper puts forward a new risk index, which uses the amount of optimal load shedding as the severity of an accident consequence to identify the critical lines in power system. Taking IEEE24-RTS as an example, the simulation results verify the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed index.

An improved portfolio optimization model for oil and gas investment selection

For oil company decision-makers,the principal concern is how to allocate their limited resources into the most valuable opportunities.Recently a new management philosophy,＂Beyond NPV＂,has received more and more international attention.Economists and senior executives are seeking effective alternative analysis approaches for traditional technical and economic evaluation methods.The improved portfolio optimization model presented in this article represents an applicable technique beyond NPV for doing capital budgeting.In this proposed model,not only can oil company executives achieve trade-offs between returns and risks to their risk tolerance,but they can also employ an ＂operational premium＂ to distinguish their ability to improve the performance of the underlying projects.A simulation study based on 19 overseas upstream assets owned by a large oil company in China is conducted to compare optimized utility with non-optimized utility.The simulation results show that the petroleum optimization model including ＂operational premium＂ is more in line with the rational investors＇ demand.

Modeling on monitoring the growth and rupture assessment of saccular aneurysms

The unpredictable rupture of saccular aneurysms especially of the intracerebral aneurysm is a knotty problem that always results in high mortality. Traditional diagnosis of medical images, which gives the aneurysm size and compares with a speculated critical size from clinical statistics, was demonstrated inadequate to forecasting rupture. Here, we propose a new detecting strategy that uses a dielectric elastomer （DE） capacitance sensor to monitor the growth of saccular aneurysms and deliver both the wall stress and geometric parameters, Based on the elastic growth theory together with the finite deformation analyses, the correlation between the real-time output capacitance of the DE sensor and the wall stress and/or geometry of an aneurysm is derived. Compared to clinic statistics and biomechanics simulations, the wall stress and geometric size may be used as combined indicators to assess the rupture risk of a saccular aneurysm, Numerical results show that an output relative capacitance of 30 indicates a high risk of rupture, Finally, the sensitivity and resolution of the DE sensor are proved adequately high for monitoring the growth state and evaluating the rupture risk of a saccular aneurysm.

Handling epistemic uncertainties in PRA using evidential networks

In order to overcome the limitations of traditional methods in uncertainty analysis, a modified Bayesian network(BN), which is called evidence network(EN), was proposed with evidence theory to handle epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment(PRA). Fault trees(FTs) and event trees(ETs) were transformed into an EN which is used as a uniform framework to represent accident scenarios. Epistemic uncertainties of basic events in PRA were presented in evidence theory form and propagated through the network. A case study of a highway tunnel risk analysis was discussed to demonstrate the proposed approach. Frequencies of end states are obtained and expressed by belief and plausibility measures. The proposed approach addresses the uncertainties in experts' knowledge and can be easily applied to uncertainty analysis of FTs/ETs that have dependent events.

Theory of mind impairments in individuals at ultra-high risk for psychosis

Objective To determine deficits in theory of mind in individuals at ultra-high risk for psychosis(UHR),and to explore the relations between theory of mind and symptom severity.Methods Twenty seven ultra-high-risk patients in clinics of the Peking University Sixth

Risk Assessment of Heavy Metal Pollution in Sediments of the Fenghe River by the Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Model and Multivariate Statistical Methods

Concentrations of heavy metals in 74 sediment samples from the Fenghe River, which originates from the north of the Qinling Mountains and flows through Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, China, were characterized by employing geographic information system(GIS)mapping, fuzzy synthetic assessment, and multivariate statistical analysis to determine the enrichment characteristics of heavy metals as well as their potential risks of pollution to sediments. Al, Cd, and Co were the major pollutants, with a high enrichment factor(EF) value. Heavy metal concentrations from samples near the paper plant were maintained at a high level. Significant enrichment of Al, Ba, Cr, Ni, Pb, and Co was found in the midstream and downstream, while high concentration of Cu occurred in the headwater stream. Based on the cluster and principal component analyses, sediment metals mainly came from the paper plants, agronomic practices, natural sources, and tourism, with a contribution of 51.59%, 23.01%, 14.21%, and 9.88%, respectively. Sediment pollution assessment explored using fuzzy theory based on the entropy method and toxicity coefficient showed that 26, 32, and 11 sites fell into Class III(slightly polluted), Class IV(moderately polluted), and Class V(heavily polluted), respectively, and their scores of membership degree in the polluted level were on the rise, suggesting a relatively high degree of sediment metal pollution in the study area. Closely related to the excessive industrial and agricultural applications, metal pollution in sediment is necessary to be addressed in the Fenghe River.