Alteration of Crime Risk Levels and Formal Aspect of Typical LowCost Housing Design Due to Site Conditions and Building Codes

As a component of the process of rationalization, lowcost housing Institution, as well as major investiment companies, commonly reuse a typical design as a standard. The goal of this procedure is to obtain cheaper costs both in the construction and in the maintenance of an homogeneous lot of buildings. The paper shows that, nevertheless an identical design being proposed in different towns, the final results are buildings with a different aspect. This is mainly due to the influence of building codes of the urban plan of the specific town, and to the site conditions, such as street orientation, ground inclination and so on. As a result the paper offers the ability to evaluate the role of the external factors on a standard design （with the afore said scale vantages） under the criminological point of view as well. This may be considered a further vantage that aims to obtain a lower crime risk level in town design.

Artificial Neural Network Modeling of Healthy Risk Level Induced by Aircraft Pollutant Impacts around Soekarno Hatta International Airport

Aircraft pollutant emissions are an important part of sources of pollution that directly or indirectly affect human health and ecosystems. This research suggests an Artificial Neural Network model to determine the healthy risk level around Soekarno Hatta International Airport-Cengkareng Indonesia. This ANN modeling is a flexible method, which enables to recognize highly complex non-linear correlations. The network was trained with real measurement data and updated with new measurements, enhancing its quality and making it the ideal method for this research. Measurements of aircraft pollutant emissions are carried out with the aim to be used as input data and to validate the developed model. The obtained results concerned the improved ANN architecture model based on pollutant emissions as input variables. ANN model processes variables—hidden layers—and gives an output variable corresponding to a healthy risk level. This model is characterized by a 4-10-1 scheme. Based on ANN criteria, the best validation performance is achieved at epoch 28 from 34 epochs with the Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 9 × 10-3. The correlation between targets and outputs is confirmed. It validated a close relationship between targets and outputs. The network output errors value approaches zero. Further research is needed with the aim to enlarge the scheme of the ANN model by increasing its input variables. This is one of the major key defining environmental capacities of an airport that should be applied by Indonesian airport authorities. These would institute policies to manage or reduce pollutant emissions considering population and income growth to be socially positive.

基于LDSCR-at-Risk的PPP项目可融资性评价

通过分析传统的偿债备付率适用性及政府和社会资本合作(PPP)项目的特点,认为传统的偿债备付率不适合于PPP项目可融资性评价。因此,为了评价中长期债务的可融资性,提出了“平准化偿债备付率”(LDSCR),即在借款偿还期内,各年可用于还本付息的资金折现到起始点的现值与贷款金额的比值;进一步提出“风险下的平准化偿债备付率”(LDSCR-at-Risk),即在给定的置信度下的平准化偿债备付率。运用蒙特卡洛仿真进行验证,结果表明:LDSCR-at-Risk可用于PPP项目的可融资性评价,且在可以评价具有风险的PPP项目可融资性的同时,还避免了如何确定项目的最低偿债备付率的问题,从而促进PPP项目融资的发展。

AssessITS: Integrating Procedural Guidelines and Practical Evaluation Metrics for Organizational IT and Cybersecurity Risk Assessment

In today’s digitally driven landscape, robust Information Technology (IT) risk assessment practices are essential for safeguarding systems, digital communication, and data. This paper introduces “AssessITS,” an actionable method designed to provide organizations with comprehensive guidelines for conducting IT and cybersecurity risk assessments. Drawing extensively from NIST 800-30 Rev 1, COBIT 5, and ISO 31000, “AssessITS” bridges the gap between high-level theoretical standards and practical implementation challenges. The paper outlines a step-by-step methodology that organizations can simply adopt to systematically identify, analyze, and mitigate IT risks. By simplifying complex principles into actionable procedures, this framework equips practitioners with the tools needed to perform risk assessments independently, without too much reliance on external vendors. The guidelines are developed to be straightforward, integrating practical evaluation metrics that allow for the precise quantification of asset values, threat levels, vulnerabilities, and impacts on confidentiality, integrity, and availability. This approach ensures that the risk assessment process is not only comprehensive but also accessible, enabling decision-makers to implement effective risk mitigation strategies customized to their unique operational contexts. “AssessITS” aims to enable organizations to enhance their IT security strength through practical, actionable guidance based on internationally recognized standards.

RISK LEVEL ANALYSIS ON THE PREVENTIVE EROSION CAPACITY OF BRIDGES

Deficiency of the Preventive Erosion Capacity (PEC) of a bridge pier is the main factor leading to bridge fai lures. In this paper, the PEC of bridge piers was analyzed using the stochastic analysis method. The definitions of the reliability and risk level of a bridge p ier subjected to water erosion were proposed and a computational model for erosi on depth and risk level in was suggested.

Method for determining climatic design conditions based on the indoor thermal environment risk level

Currently,climatic design conditions are usually selected according to the frequency of climatic parameters them-selves,which method cannot reflect the indoor thermal environment risk level of the building in design.In this regard,the research proposes to construct the correlation between climatic design conditions and indoor thermal environment risk level,and explore the effect of uncertainty in building thermal performance on this correlation from the perspective of probability,thus realizing the process of selecting the climatic design conditions based on the requirement for indoor thermal environment risk level.Taking Guangzhou in China as an example,the new process of determining climatic design conditions is realized.On this basis,the difference between the traditional method and the present research method is compared.In the Chinese norm method,the indoor thermal environ-ment risk level of the building is between 0 and 0.03%when the climatic design conditions are selected with 0.57%cumulative frequency of occurrence;in the research method,the indoor thermal environment risk level of the building is between 0.2%and 0.6%when the climatic design conditions are selected with 0.57%indoor thermal environment risk level and 100%confidence level.The results indicate that the research method can meet the designer’s expectation for indoor thermal environment risk level in design more directly and accurately.

Assessment of pollution levels and human health risk of heavy metals in dust deposited on Yerevan＇s tree leaves (Armenia)

The total concentrations of Cd,As,Pb,Cr,Ni,Co,Zn,Cu,Ag,Hg,and Mo were determined in the atmospheric dust of the city of Yerevan by atomic absorption spectrometry(AAnalyst PE 800).Heavy metal pollution levels were evaluated by calculating geo-accumulation(I_(geo)) and summary pollution(Z_c) indices.Potential human health risk was assessed using the United States Environmental Protection agency's human health risk assessment model.The results show that mean contents of all elements tested except Ni and Cr were substantially higher than local geochemical background values.According to the I_(geo),Yerevan territory is strongly-to-extremely polluted by As,Ag,Hg,Mo,and Cd.The Z_c assessment indicated that very high pollution was detected in 36%of samples,high in 32%,average in 12%,and low in 20%.The health risk assessment revealed a noncarcinogenic risk(HI >1) for children at 13 samplings sites and for adults at one sampling site.For children the risk was due to elevated levels of Mo,Cd,Co,and As,while for adults,only Mo.Carcinogenic risk(>1:1,000,000) of As and Cr via ingestion pathway was observed in 25 and 14 samples,respectively.This study,therefore,is the base for further detailed investigations to organize problematic site remediation and risk reduction measures.

A Systematic Assessment of Blood Lead Level in Children and Associated Risk Factors in China

In this study, we searched multiple databases for all relevant original articles (1996-2013). To investigate blood lead levels (BLL) and possible risk factors for lead exposure among children in China A total of 388 articles met our inclusion criteria. The overall geometric mean (GM) BLL was 71 μg/L, and the prevalence of elevated BLL (EBLL, defined as BLL ≥100 μg/L) was 18.48% among children. The prevalence of EBLL remained significantly higher among boys. In children less than 6 years of age, there were significantly increasing trends in both BLL and prevalence of EBLL in an age-dependent manner. The ban on leaded gasoline significantly reduced the BLL as well as EBLL prevalence; however, children whose parents had lower educational levels or were exposed to lead in the workplace had a higher EBLL prevalence. Despite its decline over time, the average BLL among children in China remains higher than the average level most recently reported in the United States. Childhood lead poisoning remains a public health problem in China.

A predictive score for retinopathy of prematurity by using clinical risk factors and serum insulin-like growth factor-1 levels

AIM：To detect the impact of insulin-like growth factor-1（IGF-1）and other risk factors for the early prediction of retinopathy of prematurity（ROP）and to establish a scoring system for ROP prediction by using clinical criteria and serum IGF-1 levels.METHODS：The study was conducted with 127 preterm infants.IGF-1 levels in the 1st day of life,1st,2nd,3rd and4th week of life was analyzed.The score was established after logistic regression analysis,considering the impact of each variable on the occurrences of any stage ROP.A validation cohort containing 107 preterm infants was included in the study and the predictive ability of ROP score was calculated.RESULTS：Birth weights（BW）,gestational weeks（GW）and the prevalence of breast milk consumption were lower,respiratory distress syndrome（RDS）,bronchopulmonarydysplasia（BPD）and necrotizing enterocolitis（NEC）were more frequent,the duration of mechanical ventilation and oxygen supplementation was longer in patients with ROP（P〈0.05）.Initial serum IGF-1 levels tended to be lower in newborns who developed ROP.Logistic regression analysis revealed that low BW（〈1250 g）,presence of intraventricular hemorrhage（IVH）and formula feeding increased the risk of ROP.Afterwards,the scoring system was validated on 107 infants.The negative predictive values of a score less than 4 were 84.3%,74.7%and 79.8%while positive predictive values were 76.3%,65.5%and71.6%respectively.CONCLUSION：In addition to BW〈1250 g and IVH,formula consumption was detected as a risk factor for the development of ROP.Breastfeeding is important for prevention of ROP in preterm infants.

Risk assessment and zoning of sea level rise in Shandong Province

Sea level rise is a slow-onset disaster.We collected information about the natural and ecological environments,tides and sea levels,and socio-economic aspects to investigate the distribution and zoning of the risks from sea level rise across Shandong Province.The trends in sea level in different counties of Shandong Province were predicted using moving averages and a random dynamic analysis forecasting model,and the model outputs and socio-economic indicators were combined to assess the risks.The results show that the risks of sea level rise along the western coast of Bohai Bay and Laizhou Bay in Shandong Province were sufficiently large to warrant attention.

Is low postoperative cholesterol level really an independent risk factor of adverse outcomes after living donor liver transplantation?

To the Editor:We read with great interest the article by Yang et al.[1]evaluating the effects of postoperative serum total cholesterol(s TC)changes on early allograft dysfunction and survival after living donor liver transplantation(LDLT).By the multivariate regression analysis,they showed that patients with s TC<1.42 mmol/L on postoperative day 3 had 4.08-fold and 2.72-fold greater risks of

Inventory Model with Supply Disruption Risk and Service Level Constraint

We develop a newsvender model with service level constraint for oneproduct and multi-supplier system, where the supplies are susceptible to disruption risks. We prove the convexity of the programming problem,and provide the necessary and sufficient conditions for the optimal order quantities. Through analysis or numerical experiments we observe the effects of the disrupt risk and the service level constraint on the optimal policy. We propose some managerial insights in managing the multi-source supply chain with disruption risks.

土石坝风险等级智能预测分析及模型优化研究

大坝溃坝会造成大量的生命财产损失和巨大的环境破坏。精准快速确定土石坝风险等级,对于控制土石坝溃坝危害具有重要意义。本文采用K-最近邻(KNN)算法填补了数据库中大量缺失数据,引入遗传优化算法(GA)优化轻量级梯度提升机(LightGBM)超参数,建立了基于GA-LightGBM的土石坝风险等级快速预测模型。采用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)、曲线下面积(AUC)值等其他评价指标对模型精度进行验证,并将其与传统机器学习模型进行了对比。研究表明,所提模型预测准确率为89.95%,准确度最高。模型的AUC值为0.977,说明模型在适用性和预测精度方面都优于传统预测模型。采用SHAP分析对该模型进行了全局影响因素分析及案例分析,结果表明,检查频次是导致土石坝风险最重要的影响因素之一。

Serum lipid levels and their risk factors in theGuangxi Mu Lao Zu population

Objectives Mu Lao Zu population.Methods A total of 1055 subjects of Mu Lao Zu were studied by a stratified randomized cluster sampling.Blood pressure,body height, body weight,waist circumference and serum lipid and apolipoprotein(Apo) levels were measured.The data were compared with those in 969 subjects of Han Chinese from the same region.In order to evaluate the association of hyperlipidemia with nine possible riks factors,multivariate logistic regression analysis was also performed in the combined population of Mu Lao Zu and Han,Mu Lao Zu,and Han;respectively. Results The levels of total cholesterol,triglyceride, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and ApoB in Mu Lao Zu were significantly higher than those in Han(P【0.05-0.001); but the levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol,ApoA1 and ApoA1/Apo were significantly lower than those in Han (P【0.001 ).The prevalence of hyperlipidemia and Hypercholesterolemia was also significantly higher in Mu Lao Zu than in Han(53.0%vs.46.1%,P【0.001) and(44.5%vs. 37.5%,P【0.001).There was no difference in the prevalence of hypertriglyceridemia between the both ethnic groups (22.8%vs.19.4%,P】0.05).Hyperlipidemia was positively correlated with age,BMI,and systolic blood pressureMu Lao Zu(P【0.05),whereas it was positively correlated with BMI and hypertension in Han(P【0.05 for each).Conclusions The serum lipid profiles,the prevalence of hyperlipidemia and the risk factors are different between the Mu Lao Zu and Han populations.The differences in serum lipid profiles between the two ethnic groups might result from different dietary habit,life style,as well as genetic factors,in ? To determine the serum lipid levels and their risk factors in the Guangxi.

数字金融的绿色效应:数字普惠金融与企业绿色技术创新

在新发展理念下,基于绿色导向与创新导向系统实现企业的绿色技术创新成为企业绿色转型与创新驱动发展的重要突破口。本文选取中国沪深A股上市公司数据,考察了数字普惠金融对企业绿色技术创新的具体影响效应及其机制。研究结果表明:数字普惠金融及其覆盖广度、使用深度和数字化程度均显著促进企业绿色技术创新,数字普惠金融主要通过提高企业创新投入、降低企业风险水平以及增强企业治理水平的三重机制促进企业绿色技术创新,数字普惠金融对企业绿色技术创新的促进效应在融资约束程度高与市场化程度低地区的企业中更为明显。因此,政府要深化金融供给侧结构性改革,推动数字普惠金融发展;企业要高度重视数字普惠金融的赋能效应,完善数字普惠金融助力企业绿色技术创新的协同机制,通过实施绿色技术创新战略实现企业绿色低碳转型升级。

基于三级编码的智能城市网络安全风险评估体系构建研究

[研究目的]城市的智能化发展为城市建设带来了多元的网络安全风险,这些风险已经成为城市发展中的极大隐患,为有效应对该问题,构建了智能城市网络安全风险评估体系。[研究方法]首先基于计量分析对国内外近十年的相关研究进行整理和可视化处理,构建用于评价指标提取的数据集;然后利用扎根理论中的三级编码方法提取智能城市安全风险评估中不同级别的评价指标,并进行编码;最后采用量化分析对指标进行合理性检验和修正,并根据HP-ANP模型进行指标赋权,完成智能城市网络安全风险评估体系的构建。[研究结论]通过对评估体系中影响智能城市网络安全风险要素的关联和重要性分析,提出了智能城市安全建设的对策建议,助力智能城市规避网络安全风险。

长江下游干流沉积物重金属特征及生态风险评价

【研究目的】长江下游干流沿岸分布众多取水口,为保障用水安全和生态环境健康,亟需了解近岸沉积物中重金属相关现状。【研究方法】调查过程中自上而下分左右岸共采集沉积物样品85组,利用描述统计分析重金属含量特征,综合相关性分析和主成分分析探讨重金属来源,采用地累积指数法、污染负荷法分析重金属污染程度,并评估其潜在生态风险。【研究结果】平均含量由高至低为Zn>Cr>Cu>Ni>Pb>As>Cd;上游至下游,Cu、Zn、Cr、Ni呈小幅波动增加趋势,As、Pb呈小幅波动下降趋势,Cd呈较大波动下降趋势;Cd的污染程度最重,主要来源于农业生产等人类活动,1~4级污染分别占比1.18%、1.18%、18.82%和34.12%,Cr和Ni为无污染,主要是工业生产源和地球化学自然源;中等污染程度(1≤PLI_(point)<2)的样点占比34.18%,潜在生态风险指数(RI)为19.48~388.62,轻微潜在生态风险、中等潜在生态风险、强潜在生态风险和极强潜在生态风险占比分别为38.82%、42.35%、17.65%和1.18%。【结论】长江下游干流沉积物中重金属含量较低,流域整体处于轻微—中等风险的无污染状态(PLI_(area)<1),右岸重金属平均含量、污染程度和潜在生态风险均普遍高于左岸。

数字化转型能否促进企业绿色创新绩效的提高?——基于我国A股上市公司数据

以2016—2021年沪深两市A股上市公司的数据作为研究样本,运用固定效应面板模型就数字化转型对企业绿色创新绩效的影响进行实证分析,同时探究融资约束的中介效应及风险承担水平、政府补助的调节作用。研究发现:数字化转型能显著促进企业绿色创新绩效的提高,且该作用在国有企业、非重污染企业及市场化程度较低的企业中更明显。进一步分析发现:融资约束在数字化转型对企业绿色创新绩效影响的过程中发挥了部分中介作用;风险承担水平和政府补助均发挥了正向调节作用。因此,企业层面应积极进行数字化转型,通过缓解融资约束来促进绿色创新绩效的提高,并积极发挥风险承担水平和政府补助的调节作用;政府层面应完善补助政策,推动企业绿色创新绩效的持续提高。

城市内涝风险影响评估关键技术研究与实践

在全球气候变化和极端降雨频发的背景下,结合城市体检工作开展排水防涝系统评估十分必要.本研究利用地理国情普查等国土空间多源数据,针对排水防涝系统中的内涝风险等级评估、积水影响评估和内涝经济损失评估等技术建立了评估分析方法和模型,并将其在北京市S地区进行了实践应用,佐证了方法的准确性和可靠性.本文的评估方法可以作为城市体检中的重要技术手段进行推广应用,其评估结果可以反馈国土空间规划,指导城市建设.