Global Epidemic of Ebola Virus Disease and the Importation Risk into China: An Assessment Based on the Risk Matrix Method

Objective To analyze the global epidemic status of the Ebola virus disease(EVD) and assess the importation risk into China.Methods Data from World Health Organization reports were used. We described the global epidemic status of EVD from 1976–2021, and assessed and ranked the importation risk of EVD from the diseaseoutbreaking countries into China using the risk matrix and Borda count methods, respectively.Results From 1976–2021, EVD mainly occurred in western and central Africa, with the highest cumulative number of cases(14,124 cases) in Sierra Leone, and the highest cumulative fatality rate(85%) in the Congo. Outbreaks of EVD have occurred in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Guinea since 2018. The importation risk into China varies across countries with outbreaks of disease.The Democratic Republic of the Congo had an extremely high risk(23 Borda points), followed by Guinea and Liberia. Countries with a moderate importation risk were Nigeria, Uganda, Congo, Sierra Leone,Mali, and Gabon, while countries with a low importation risk included Sudan, Senegal, and Co te d’Ivoire.Conclusion China is under the risk of EVD importation with the globalization and severe epidemic status of EVD. Key attention need to be paid to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea, and Liberia. Therefore, it is necessary to prevent and prepare in advance for importation risk in China.

2022 Multiple-country Monkeypox Outbreak and Its Importation Risk into China:An Assessment Based on the Risk Matrix Method

Objective To analyze the 2022 multiple-country monkeypox outbreak and assess its importation risk into China.Methods Data was from United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.We described the global epidemic and calculated concentration index to measure economic-related inequality.Importation risk into China was evaluated and ranked by using risk matrix method and Borda count method,respectively.Results As of July 29,2022,of 79 countries or territories,39(49.37%,39/79),17(21.52%,17/79),6(7.59%,6/79),12(15.19%,12/79),and 5(6.33%,5/79)country or territories identified cases<10,10-,51-,101-,and>1,000.There were economic-related health disparities exist in the distribution of cases(the concentration index=0.42,P=0.027),and the inequality disadvantageous to the rich(pro-poor).There were 12(15.38%,12/78),15(19.23%,15/78),6(7.69%,6/78),and 45(57.69%,45/78)countries or territories with extremely high,high,moderate,and low importation risk.United States and France ranked first with the highest Borda points of 156,and counts of zero.Conclusion Of 78 countries or territories,the key attention need be paid to the United States and France,relatively.As the epidemic progresses,preparing prevention and control measures to further reduce importation risk was crucial.

Risk Matrix as a Tool for Risk Analysis in Underwater Operations in the Oil and Gas Industry

The study is a cross-sectional design assessment of the likelihood, frequency and severity of hazards associated with underwater operations in the Niger Delta. Five oil and gas companies were used for this study selected by a purposive method given that they had the highest number of workers involved in underwater operations. A sample size of 418 was computed to which the questionnaires were administered with response rate of 95.93%. Data analyses were carried out to cover descriptive statistics, analysis of variance and Pearsonal correlation coefficients. The 4 by 4 risk assessment matrix for the likelihood and consequences showed that 8 out of 20 underwater hazards were categorized as having very high risk according to their risk ratings. The eight hazards categorized based on their risk IDs were H01, H03, H04, H08, H10, H11, H12, and H15. The 4 by 4 risk matrix for frequency and consequences revealed that two hazards (Piracy & bandit attack/kidnapping (H01) and Other main vessels/heavy object dropping or falling load/collision (H08)) were identified to be of very high risk.

Research on Industrial Relevance Degree and Industrial Financial Situation Risk Matrix Construction——Based on Chinese Information Technology Industry

Based on Input-Output Table in 2010 issued by National Bureau of Statistics of China, with the help of input-output model and with the calculation of indexes of industrial relevance degree in Chinese information technology industry, the paper reveals the industrial relevance in Chinese information technology industry. The paper also selects the relevant industries which are highly associated with the development of Chinese information technology industry based on industrial relevance degree to analyze the influences of these industries on the financial situation risk fluctuation in information technology industry and to design the matrix of financial situation risk in information technology industry. Then, the paper offers countermeasures and suggestions for the development of our information technology industry.

Analysis of the Tragedy of Vila Socóin Cubatão (São Paulo, Brazil) Using the Haddon Matrix: A Comprehensive Examination of Socio-Environmental Factors and Risk Mitigation Strategies

The tragedy of Vila Socó epitomizes the socio-environmental repercussions of rapid industrialization in Cubatão. Beginning in the 1940s with the construction of the Anchieta highway, the city experienced an influx of migrants drawn by burgeoning industries, leading to unplanned urban growth and the emergence of vulnerable communities like Vila Socó. This article examines the interconnected factors—such as demographic shifts, inadequate planning, and regulatory oversight—that culminated in the devastating fire of 1984, claiming numerous lives and highlighting systemic failures. Utilizing the Haddon Matrix, this study dissects the Vila Socó incident, emphasizing the roles of human error, infrastructure integrity, and socio-economic disparities in disaster causation. By contextualizing the tragedy within Cubatão’s industrial trajectory, it underscores the urgent need for comprehensive risk assessment and proactive mitigation strategies in rapidly developing regions globally. Beyond its immediate focus, this work offers broader insights into the dynamics of industrial disasters and their socio-economic implications. As pipelines continue to play a vital role in global energy infrastructure, the lessons drawn from Vila Socó’s tragedy resonate deeply, emphasizing the imperative of robust safety protocols and accountable governance to prevent similar catastrophes in the future.

Risk Assessment of Contractor Support Based on Improved Risk Matrix Method

For the current situation that the application of risk matrix method may result in too many risk ties which will block risk management and decision making, and based on the brief introduction of risk matrix method,this paper subdivides the risk levels, gives an improved risk matrix method, conducts risk assessment of contractor support using the improved risk matrix method, and determines the risk rates and the acceptable level.

Kernel matrix learning with a general regularized risk functional criterion

Kernel-based methods work by embedding the data into a feature space and then searching linear hypothesis among the embedding data points. The performance is mostly affected by which kernel is used. A promising way is to learn the kernel from the data automatically. A general regularized risk functional （RRF） criterion for kernel matrix learning is proposed. Compared with the RRF criterion, general RRF criterion takes into account the geometric distributions of the embedding data points. It is proven that the distance between different geometric distdbutions can be estimated by their centroid distance in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space. Using this criterion for kernel matrix learning leads to a convex quadratically constrained quadratic programming （QCQP） problem. For several commonly used loss functions, their mathematical formulations are given. Experiment results on a collection of benchmark data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

基于改进ALARP风险矩阵的危货运输车辆专用停车场安全性评价研究

为评估危货运输车辆专用停车场安全水平,降低危货车辆停放环节风险,提出一种基于改进ALARP风险矩阵的危货运输车辆停车场安全性评价方法。首先,基于事故案例统计数据、在开展致因分析、故障树构建、指标初选、信效度检验的基础上,构建危货运输车辆专用停车场安全风险评级指标体系;其次,结合贝叶斯网络、层次分析法、模糊综合评价法和改进ALARP的风险矩阵法,提出危货运输车辆专用停车场安全风险评价模型;再次,在考虑已知风险可能性、风险损失量化结果的基础上,基于改进ALARP风险矩阵得到专用停车场风险总评价量化值及评价等级;最后,以重庆市某危险货物运输车辆专用停车场为例开展验证分析,验证结果表明,研究所得到的评价结果与实际情况具有较高的一致性。

长江流域微塑料生态风险综合评估

建立了涵盖长江流域43个城市、366个采样点的微塑料数据集来探究微塑料空间分布变化,并基于二维风险评估矩阵和蒙特卡洛模拟分别评估流域内部各采样点微塑料的绝对生态风险和流域整体微塑料的相对生态风险,进而确定了长江流域微塑料的优先控制地区和优先控制因子。结果表明:长江流域微塑料丰度平均值为(2.52±11.60)万个/m^(3),生产生活消费和船舶运输等人为因素、地形地势等自然因素可能是造成其分布不均的原因;长江流域各采样点所在城市微塑料的绝对生态风险指数范围为1~20,应重点关注鄱阳湖流域和太湖流域的微塑料生态风险;在相对生态风险评估中,流域内90.8%的微塑料污染负荷风险处于低风险等级,63.4%的聚合物危害风险处于高风险等级,65.5%的潜在生态风险处于低风险等级,微塑料丰度、聚氯乙烯和聚氨酯对生态风险的贡献较高。

基于WSR-IM的装配式预制构件吊装施工安全评价

装配式建筑预制构件吊装施工相较于传统建筑吊装作业的施工安全风险更加具有多样性和复杂性,为准确有效的评估装配式建筑预制构件吊装施工的安全风险状态,识别出关键风险因素,在多因素耦合视角下构建预制构件吊装施工安全事故致因模型。基于施工单位责任视角,首先采用WSR方法论从“物理-事理-人理”三个层面识别并筛选出预制构件吊装施工安全风险影响因素20个,其次利用可以削弱主观因素影响的C-OWA算子构建改进相互作用矩阵进行风险耦合分析,最后用实例验证该方法实用性。结果表明:该项目整体风险等级偏强,项目管理者应该重视预制构件吊装风险的预防和管控,通过采取有效的防御措施,对施工过程中的高权重风险因素进行控制,降低发生重大安全事故的概率。

基于AHP-熵权-TOPSIS改进风险矩阵的连续刚构桥施工风险评价研究

针对传统风险矩阵法(LS法)的不足,提出将ALARP准则引入风险矩阵,并建立了关于连续刚构桥的桥梁施工风险评价指标体系,运用层次分析法从横向角度对准则层风险指标赋予权重,再使用熵权法从纵向角度对指标层风险指标的风险发生概率和风险损失分别赋予权重,最后结合TOPSIS法(逼近理想排序法)对给出的风险值进行精确排序,得出基于AHP-熵权-TOPSIS改进风险矩阵,解决了传统风险矩阵无法针对同一级别的风险因素继续细分排序的问题,便于项目管理人员合理分配人力、物力、财力等安全资源的投入。

期权隐含尾部风险信息的系统性风险预警功能研究

系统性风险预警是防范化解系统性风险的重要举措。期权市场隐含着大量有价值且具前瞻性的信息。本文从上证50ETF期权价格中提取隐含尾部风险信息,检验期权隐含尾部风险信息的系统性风险预警功能。实证结果表明,期权隐含尾部风险信息对我国系统性风险具有显著的预测能力,在控制其他风险预警指标后,结果仍然显著。期权隐含尾部风险信息对不同部门系统性风险的预测能力存在差异,对股票市场风险和债券市场的预测效果最好。将期权隐含尾部风险信息加入传统风险预警指标体系后,能够大幅提升预警指标的预警效果,降低噪声信号比。

黄河口湿地潜在溢油污染生态风险评估

黄河口有着我国典型的新生湿地生态系统,生态环境非常脆弱,极易受到陆源和海洋污染事故的影响。本文针对黄河口附近海上油田的开发和运输带来的潜在溢油风险,结合溢油污染概率模型以及河口的生态脆弱性,对黄河口湿地潜在溢油污染风险进行评估。在河口水动力模拟的基础上,采用随机情景模拟法选取300种风和潮流组合作为溢油模拟的强迫条件,分别模拟溢油后72 h和720 h的污染结果,并统计黄河口湿地受溢油污染影响的最大概率和最短时间,采用环境敏感指数表征湿地对溢油污染的敏感程度、危害后果指数量化表征其危害程度及风险矩阵量化风险高低。结果表明黄河口国家公园受潜在溢油污染概率较大,危害后果指数值为29,处于较高危害等级,属于中风险区;河口岸线受潜在溢油污染概率较小,危害后果指数值均小于1,溢油危害后果低,属于低风险区。

现代化水库运行管理矩阵体系分析与构建关键问题研究

为支撑行业重点任务建设,提高现代化水库运行管理矩阵的建设水平,通过文献查阅、实地考察和交流咨询等方法,绘制了以工程安全、设施设备、影响区、运行调度和管理监督5个关键环节为一体的现代化水库运行管理矩阵构建体系“一张图”。给出了现代化水库运行管理矩阵的整体架构、层次演进和各要素之间的相互关系,系统梳理了现代化水库运行管理矩阵提出的背景、内涵和要求,对“四全”、“四制(治)”、“四预”、“四管”和雨水情监测预报、工程安全风险感控、生产安全风险感控“三道防线”的对象进行了系统整合和扩展,分析了各概念之间的相互关系和关键技术问题。研究结果表明,构建现代化水库运行管理矩阵是科技和管理水平发展的必然要求。

输卵管阻塞性不孕患者血清TGF-β1、IL-2、MMP-9水平及临床意义

目的:分析输卵管阻塞性不孕患者血清转化生长因子-β1(TGF-β1)、白细胞介素-2(IL-2)、基质金属蛋白酶-9(MMP-9)水平变化及临床意义。方法:以本院2022年3月-2023年10月诊治的60例输卵管阻塞性不孕患者为病例组,正常妊娠分娩的女性50例为对照组。测定对比两组血清TGF-β1、IL-2、MMP-9水平,Pearson相关性分析血清指标间相关性,受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析血清指标诊断不孕效能,logistic多因素回归分析输卵管阻塞性不孕发生影响因素。结果:病例组术前血清TGF-β1(593.79±148.23 ng/L)、IL-2(3.90±0.75 ng/L)、MMP-9(384.88±86.87 ng/ml)水平均高于对照组(239.42±113.37 ng/L、3.09±0.84 ng/L、178.98±80.85 ng/ml),术后血清TGF-β1、IL-2、MMP-9水平较术前均下降,血清TGF-β1与IL-2、MMP-9,及IL-2与MMP-9均呈正相关(均P<0.05)。ROC曲线分析,诊断不孕TGF-β1曲线下面积(AUC)0.941、敏感度88.3%、特异度94.0%,IL-2 AUC 0.778、敏感度66.7%、特异度84.0%,MMP-9 AUC 0.946、敏感度88.3%、特异度86.0%,3指标联合诊断AUC为0.992,敏感度93.3%、特异度100.0%。logistic回归分析,血清TGF-β1、IL-2、MMP-9异常升高是输卵管阻塞性不孕发发生的危险因素(均P<0.05)。结论:输卵管阻塞性不孕患者血清TGF-β1、IL-2、MMP-9水平均高表达,且是不孕发生的危险因素,3者联合检测对输卵管阻塞性不孕有较高诊断价值。

基于关联性风险分析的过程管理策略对医疗设备运行效益的影响研究

目的:基于医疗设备关联性风险分析,制定过程性管理策略,提高医疗设备临床运行效益。方法:制定医疗设备管理对策,从主体、质量、环境、制度和诊疗角度进行风险矩阵评估,建立关联性风险综合评估模型。选取2021年4月至2022年3月上海市第八人民医院临床在用的400台医疗设备,采用数表法将其分为对照组和观察组,每组200台,对照组采用个体化风险分析法进行过程性管理,观察组采用关联性风险分析法进行过程性管理。对比分析两组医疗设备的风险等级和运行效益。结果:观察组医学影像诊断及辅助设备、手术治疗设备、生命支持与急救设备、体外循环及血液处理设备和健康监测及康复设备的高危险占比分别为17.39%(4/23)、14.58%(7/48)、12.24%(6/49)、5.55%(1/18)和5.06%(5/62),均低于对照组,其差异有统计学意义(x^(2)=4.132、4.009、6.275、4.833、4.859,P<0.05);观察组医疗设备的成本效益、社会效益、诊疗效益和发展效益评分分别为(91.37±6.15)分、(92.78±3.80)分、(95.25±2.09)分和(90.51±3.82)分,均高于对照组,其差异有统计学意义(t=2.392、3.877、4.841、2.504,P<0.05)。结论:关联性风险分析方法可降低医疗设备安全风险发生概率和危害程度,提高医疗设备临床运行效益,过程管理策略符合医疗设备全生命周期管理的实际需要。

Risk management for mine closure: A cloud model and hybrid semi-quantitative decision method

Mine closure is associated with many negative impacts on society and the environment.If these effects are not rationally addressed,they would pose risks of mine closure.Thus,a risk management method is needed to mitigate these adverse impacts and address mine-closure issues.An integral framework for mine-closure risk management that includes risk assessment and risk treatment was proposed.Given the fuzziness and randomness of the transformation between qualitative and quantitative knowledge in the risk assessment process,a novel risk assessment method based on the cloud model was presented,which fully considers the uncertainty in risks themselves and in the reasoning process.Closed mine reutilization is an effective risk treatment option in response to the identified high risks,but it requires selecting optimal reutilization strategies for the successful implementation of the reuse plan.To this end,a hybrid semi-quantitative decision method is proposed to optimize decision-making.The results of a case study showed that this risk management methodology can help budget planning for risk treatment and provide an instructional framework to effectively reduce the negative effects of closed mines.

AIGC视域下数字教育产品的四维风险矩阵与治理框架

数字教育是数字中国的重要组成部分。随着生成式人工智能在教育领域的快速深入应用,数字教育产品已从教育APP、小程序、云平台等成熟形态迅速衍生出大模型、虚拟机器人等创新形态。AIGC在为教育提供便捷的家校社联系、多语种的流畅交互、高效率的阅读批改等技术红利的同时,仍然面临资源质量良莠不齐、信息无序扩散、算法设计与人的认知发展弱关联等挑战。为此,亟需从社会定义范式和行为计算范式的双重视角来构建一种贯通“数字资源—信息传播—算法设计—认知评估”的四维风险矩阵,以定性和定量分析AIGC教育应用的潜在风险。同时亦需从“监管者—开发者—使用者”的主体协同视角构建治理框架,通过行业应用准入审查和服务集群常态化测评的路径来输出决策支持和治理建议。该四维风险矩阵和治理架构可为政府监管者、家校使用者和产品开发者推进AIGC良性应用生态提供重要参考。