Stock Liquidity Risk Pricing Model Driven by Systematic and Unsystematic Risk

In the stock pricing, liquidity risk has become one of the important factors that affect the stock realizable value. Systematic and unsystematic risk decided a stock＇s liquidity risk. The author uses the stock price index growth rate and net outer disk ratio to describe a systematic and unsystematic risk faced by investors. With the help of correlation and regression analysis in SPSS software, the paper tries to establish the systematic and unsystematic risk-driven stock liquidity risk pricing model. Empirical study shows that systematic and unsystematic risk has significant influence on stock liquidity risk. The bigger circulation stock, the greater the systemic risk influence; the less the circulation stock, the larger the non-system risk influence. Calendar factor on stock returns ratio has no significant effect. Trading volume on the stock returns ratio of small companies had no significant effect. The model has important reference value for the measure of stock liquidity risk value loss.

Pricing Catastrophe Options with Credit Risk in a Regime-Switching Model

In this paper,we consider the price of catastrophe options with credit risk in a regime-switching model.We assume that the macroeconomic states are described by a continuous-time Markov chain with a finite state space.By using the measure change technique,we derive the price expressions of catastrophe put options.Moreover,we conduct some numerical analysis to demonstrate how the parameters of the model affect the price of the catastrophe put option.

Artificial Intelligence-Based Automated Actuarial Pricing and Underwriting Model for the General Insurance Sector

The Automated Actuarial Pricing and Underwriting Model has been enhanced and expanded through the implementation of Artificial Intelligence to automate three distinct actuarial functions: loss reserving, pricing, and underwriting. This model utilizes data analytics based on Artificial Intelligence to merge microfinance and car insurance services. Introducing and applying a no-claims bonus rate system, comprising base rates, variable rates, and final rates, to three key policyholder categories significantly reduces the occurrence and impact of claims while encouraging increased premium payments. We have enhanced frequency-severity models with eight machine learning algorithms and adjusted the Automated Actuarial Pricing and Underwriting Model for inflation, resulting in outstanding performance. Among the machine learning models utilized, the Random Forest (RANGER) achieved the highest Total Aggregate Comprehensive Automated Actuarial Loss Reserve Risk Pricing Balance (ACAALRRPB), establishing itself as the preferred model for developing Automated Actuarial Underwriting models tailored to specific policyholder categories.

PRICING CATASTROPHE OPTIONS WITH COUNTERPARTY CREDIT RISK IN A REDUCED FORM MODEL

In this paper, we study the price of catastrophe Options with counterparty credit risk in a reduced form model. We assume that the loss process is generated by a doubly stochastic Poisson process, the share price process is modeled through a jump-diffusion process which is correlated to the loss process, the interest rate process and the default intensity process are modeled through the Vasicek model： We derive the closed form formulae for pricing catastrophe options in a reduced form model. Furthermore, we make some numerical analysis on the explicit formulae.

Liquidity risk integration in portfolio choice： The bid efficient frontier

In this paper, a tractable solution is proposed to integrate, to a certain extent, market liquidity risk in the portfolio selection process. It is shown how an investor may take advantage of this additional risk source within the standard mean-variance optimization framework, by in certain circumstances overcoming the pitfalls of illiquidity and in others seizing a liquidity premium. Bid prices appear effective to capture liquidity risk. The efficient frontier conceived with bid prices consists of mean-variance optimal allocations that cover more liquid stocks （large caps） under stressed market conditions and less liquid stocks （small caps） under normal conditions.

Stress Testing of Liquidity Maturity Transformation Risk in Banks

One of the main causes of the past crisis was the inability of financial institutions to acquire funding at appropriate costs.The importance of applying a good liquidity risk measurement system becomes apparent.The present paper provides an approach to the measurement of liquidity maturity transformation risk within a stress testing framework,for middle-sized banks.The costs of liquidity arising due to a downturn in refinancing conditions are calculated by using modern risk measures.The forward-looking way is based on a liquidity gap report,where the consideration of the counterbalancing capacity enables to gain an insight into the real liquidity needs.The measurement of both,the portfolio-value in the respective time bucket and liquidity costs,is possible.Applying the expected shortfall can easily be included into the calculation.The results show that by using historical simulation,if no sufficient data are available,expected shortfall delivers an approximate value.Still,it can serve as an indicator of insurance against extreme events.The present approach combines a scenario-based view to a possible distress with a quantitative risk measurement.Therewith,it contributes to the bank’s wide stress testing as required by the regulatory authorities.

Resource Integration,Risk Management and Liquidity Management Strategies

The financial impact caused by the pandemic has swept the world.So far,although China has made great achievements in fighting against the pandemic,production and living order has been restored,but enterprises have faced problems in operation and management after more than half a year.For example,low resource utilization rate,weak integration ability,insufficient risk awareness,blind expansion in disadvantaged situation,high risk of financial leverage,long enterprise business and so on.The following article will conduct research on resource integration,risk management and liquidity management,and provide suggestions for enterprises to survive the economic impact of the pandemic smoothly.

Research on the Pricing of Convertible bonds in China Migration risk based on credit rating

At present,further research and exploration on credit risks are being carried out in the global field,and increasingly profound modem credit risks are exposed to the bond market.This requires that we cannot ignore the impact of credit rating migration risk on bond pricing,so as to adapt to the sustainable and healthy development of the bond market under the new normal of China's economy.The innovation point of this paper is to try to analyze the pricing of Convertible bonds in China from the perspective of credit rating migration risk.Tsiveriotis and Femandes(1998)model is selected,and the credit risk in the model is assumed to be caused by the credit rating migration risk,and the credit spread is used to measure the credit rating migration risk.The research conclusion of this paper is as follows:First,it is valid to consider the risk of credit rating migration in the TF(1998)model.The market price of convertible bonds is on average 1.22% higher 1han the theoretical value of the model.In general,the theoretical value obtained from the model has little deviation from the market price,and has a good fitting degree.Second,from the Angle of credit rating,the selection of 32 samples of convertible bonds only empirical research shows that the credit rating of AA-convertible bonds average deviation rate is negative,suggest that the credit rating of AA-the phenomenon of convertible bonds value is underestimated,and AAA credit rating to AA,AA+,the average deviation rate of convertible bonds is positive,that credit rating AA(containing AA)more convertible bond value is overrated phenomenon,and the higher the credit rating of the average deviation rate of convertible bond,the greater the overvalued levels.It has certain guiding significance for participants in the convertible bond market.

Time-varying impact of political risk on copper prices

Using the International Country Risk Guide(ICRG)index to represent countries’political risk,the time-varying effect of political risk on copper prices was examined based on the time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression with stochastic volatility(TVP-SVAR-SV)model.The empirical results show that the impact of political risk on copper prices is time-varying and has tended to increase gradually in recent years.There are significant country-level differences in the impact of political risk on copper prices.Political risk has a stronger and longer-lasting impact on copper prices in exporting countries.In terms of risk sources,external and internal conflicts contribute most to international copper price fluctuations in the sample period.The impact of political risk on copper prices reaches an extreme level during the international financial crisis,the European debt crisis,and the election of Donald Trump.

Informational uncertainties of risk assessment about accidents of chemicals

An analysis system of informational uncertainties for accidental risk assessment of chemicals is introduced. Statistical test methods and fuzzy sets method can do the quantitative analysis of the input parameters. The uncerainties of the model can be used by quantitative compared method for the leakage accidents of chemicals. The estimation of the leaking time is important for discussing accidental source term. The uncertain analyses of the release accident for pipeline gas (CO) liquid chlorine and liquid propane gas (LPG) have been discussed.

An Approach to Quantify the Heat Wave Strength and Price a Heat Derivative for Risk Hedging

Mitigating the heat stress via a derivative policy is a vital financial option for agricultural producers and other business sectors to strategically adapt to the climate change scenario. This study has provided an approach to identifying heat stress events and pricing the heat stress weather derivative due to persistent days of high surface air temperature （SAT）. Cooling degree days （CDD） are used as the weather index for trade. In this study, a call-option model was used as an example for calculating the price of the index. Two heat stress indices were developed to describe the severity and physical impact of heat waves. The daily Global Historical Climatology Network （GHCN-D） SAT data from 1901 to 2007 from the southern California, USA, were used. A major California heat wave that occurred 20-25 October 1965 was studied. The derivative price was calculated based on the call-option model for both long-term station data and the interpolated grid point data at a regular 0.1~ x0.1~ latitude-longitude grid. The resulting comparison indicates that （a） the interpolated data can be used as reliable proxy to price the CDD and （b） a normal distribution model cannot always be used to reliably calculate the CDD price. In conclusion, the data, models, and procedures described in this study have potential application in hedging agricultural and other risks.

基于改进的RiskMetrics模型的股票市场风险度量

对RiskMetrics模型两个假设做出改进,并运用改进的RiskMetrics模型对2007年1月至2018年9月的国内外股票指数日收盘价序列进行建模,实证结果表明:改进的RiskMetrics模型可以更加精准刻画三类股指序列的在险价值。美国股市对利空消息的反应非常剧烈,沪深股市与香港股市之间具有趋同性,但两者对新息冲击的反应有所不同,沪深股市对利空消息与利好消息的反应区别不明显,而香港股市对利空消息的反应明显强于利好消息。另外,三类指数的收益率序列均呈“尖峰厚尾”特性;股票价格波动对冲击的反应速度由高到低依次是美国股市、香港股市、内地股市,而对冲击的持久性由强至弱的排序则恰恰相反。

A closed-form pricing formula for European options in an illiquid asset market

This article addresses the problem of pricing European options when the underlying asset is not perfectly liquid.A liquidity discounting factor as a function of market-wide liquidity governed by a mean-reverting stochastic process and the sensitivity of the underlying price to market-wide liquidity is firstly introduced,so that the impact of liquidity on the underlying asset can be captured by the option pricing model.The characteristic function is analytically worked out using the Feynman–Kac theorem and a closed-form pricing formula for European options is successfully derived thereafter.Through numerical experiments,the accuracy of the newly derived formula is verified,and the significance of incorporating liquidity risk into option pricing is demonstrated.

Continuous-Time Models for Firm Valuation and Their Collateral Effect on Risk-Neutral Probabilities and No-Arbitraging Principle

Extensions of Merton’s model(EMM)considering the firm’s payments and generating new types of firm value distribution are suggested.In the open log-value/time space,these distributions evolve from initially normal to negatively skewed ones,and their means are concave-down functions of time.When payments are set to zero or proportional to the firm value,EMM turns into the Geometric Brownian model(GBM).We show that risk-neutral probabilities(RNPs)and the no-arbitraging principle(NAP)follow from GBM.When firm’s payments are considered,RNPs and NAP hold for the entire market for short times only,but for long-term investments,RNPs and NAP just temporarily hold for individual stocks as far as mean year returns of the firms issuing those stocks remain constant,and fail when the mean year returns decline.The developed method is applied to firm valuation to derive continuous-time equations for the firm present value and project NPV.

Contingent convertible lease modeling and credit risk management

The main objective of this study is to determine a lease agreement to finance an investment project and a solution for managing credit risk.This study investigates three types of contingent leases to reduce the costs associated with bankruptcy and compensate for the lessor’s position.A leasing defaultable contract allows the lessor to obtain the rent that will be recovered if the lessee defaults.A leasing convertible contract can be automatically converted into shares when certain default conditions related to the cash flows generated by the firm are met.These conditions are triggered by the ratio of the firm’s value and leasing payments.A Defaultable-Convertible-Leasing contract with a payback option grants the lessor the right but not the obligation to convert the remaining lease payments into stocks or to break up the contract and pick up the rented equipment when the firm reaches the default threshold.These contracts are motivated by contributing to the range of risk-management strategies by adding more flexibility to standard leasing contracts and contingent rents.Closed-form securities pricing solutions are set forward in a dynamic model for firms with existing assets and a growth option financed by shares and a contingent lease.Risk-neutral pricing theory and the backward induction method are used to determine the pricing of corporate securities.Numerical analysis shows that leasing convertible contracts and defaultable-convertible contracts with payback options impact the service value of the leased asset,maturity,and inefficiencies resulting from insolvency and asset substitution.An optimal conversion rate reduces inefficiencies,thus making the leasing convertible contract and defaultable-convertible-leasing contract with payback option a reliable solution to ensure business continuity and loss coverage of the leasers upon default.

Investor Attention,Analyst Optimism,and Stock Price Crash Risk

This paper used the A-shares listed companies in China as samples,constructed a comprehensive indicator of investor attention,and conducted an empirical analysis on the correlations among investor attention,analyst optimism,and stock price crash risk.The results indicated that investor attention aggravates the stock price crash risk and has a positive effect on analyst optimism.Meanwhile,the analyst optimism plays a mediating role in the positive correlation between investor attention and stock price crash risk.In addition to that,institutional investor attention also has direct and indirect effects on the crash risk.

Research on Agricultural Product Price Risk and Risk Management

There are a variety of reasons for agricultural product price risk,and drastic volatility in agricultural product price can give a tremendous negative impact on agriculture and even whole society. The paper argues that the agricultural product price risks include( i) price risk caused by decrease in yield and quality of agricultural products due to natural disasters;( ii) price risk caused by actual change of the market supply and demand;( iii) price fluctuation risk caused by the change of the price of the related products;( iv) sharp price volatility risk caused by market speculation;( v) risk caused by periodic property of agricultural products and lack of elasticity of agricultural demand;( vi)risk caused by lack of government management. Agricultural product price risk poses great harm to farmers,small and medium-sized agricultural operators and general consumers. This paper brings forward the specific recommendations for solving agricultural product price risk.

Reason Analysis and Risk Prevention of Soaring Price of Traditional Chinese Medicinal Materials

In recent years,the price of traditional Chinese medicinal materials soars continuously,and the resulting price risk increasingly looms large,which has critically affected midstream and downstream industries and peoples' demand for drug,and imperiled healthy and orderly development of traditional Chinese medicinal industries.Based on the status quo of continuous skyrocketing price of traditional Chinese medicinal materials at present,we winkle out the root cause of soaring price as follows:the supply and demand lose balance;the production costs hike up;there are other factors responsible for soaring price.This paper further analyses the impact of sharp increase in price of traditional Chinese medicinal materials on all links of industry chain as follows:the medicinal herb growers never benefit from soaring price;the counterfeiters and forgers in midstream industry increase;the gross profit rate of Chinese medicine enterprises declines.In accordance with the risk arising from abnormal fluctuation in price of traditional Chinese medicinal materials,corresponding precautionary measures are put forward as follows:promote the quality of traditional Chinese medicinal materials through management of value chain;curtail the production and management cost of traditional Chinese medicinal materials through management of organization chain;stabilize price of traditional Chinese medicinal materials through management of information chain;reduce transaction cost of traditional Chinese medicinal materials through management of logistics chain.

Carbon emission trading system and stock price crash risk of heavily polluting listed companies in China:based on analyst coverage mechanism

This study reveals the inconsistencies between the negative externalities of carbon emissions and the recognition condition of accounting statements.Hence,the study identifies that heavily polluting enterprises in China have severe off-balance sheet carbon reduction risks before implementing the carbon emission trading system(CETS).Through the staggered difference-in-difference(DID)model and the propen-sity score matching-DID model,the impact of CETS on reducing the risk of stock price crashes is examined using data from China’s A-share heavily polluting listed companies from 2007 to 2019.The results of this study are as follows:(1)CETS can significantly reduce the risk of stock price crashes for heavily polluting companies in the pilot areas.Specifically,CETS reduces the skewness(negative conditional skewness)and down-to-up volatility of the firm-specific weekly returns by 8.7%and 7.6%,respectively.(2)Heterogeneity analysis further shows that the impacts of CETS on the risk of stock price crashes are more significant for heavily polluting enterprises with the bear market condition,short-sighted management,and intensive air pollution.(3)Mechanism tests show that CETS can reduce analysts’coverage of heavy polluters,reducing the risk of stock price crashes.This study reveals the role of CETS from the stock price crash risk perspective and helps to clarify the relationship between climatic risk and corporate financial risk.