Application of Risk Probability Evaluation Method to Offshore Platform Construction

Offshore project risk concerns many influence factors with complex relationship, and traditional methods cannot be used for the evaluation on risk probability. To deal with this problem, a new method was developed by the combination of improved technique for order preference by similarity ideal solution method, analytical hierarchy process method and the network response surface method. The risk probability was calculated by adopting network response surface analysis based on the state variable of a known event and its degree of membership.This quantification method was applied to an offshore platform project, Bonan oil and gas field project in Bohai Bay in June 2004.There were 7 sub-projects and each includes 4 risk factors.The values of 28 risk factors, ranging from 10^-6 to 10^-4, were achieved. This precision conforms to the international principle of as low as reasonably practically.The evaluation indicates that the values of comprehensive level of construction group and ability of technical personnel on the spot are relatively high among all risk factors, so these two factors should be paid more attention to in offshore platform construction.

A minimization problem of the risk probability in first passage semi-Markov decision processes with loss rates

This paper is the first attempt to investigate the risk probability criterion in semi-Markov decision processes with loss rates. The goal is to find an optimal policy with the minimum risk probability that the total loss incurred during a first passage time to some target set exceeds a loss level. First, we establish the optimality equation via a successive approximation technique, and show that the value function is the unique solution to the optimality equation. Second, we give suitable conditions, under which we prove the existence of optimal policies and develop an algorithm for computing ?-optimal policies. Finally, we apply our main results to a business system.

First Passage Risk Probability Minimization for Piecewise Deterministic Markov Decision Processes

This paper is an attempt to study the minimization problem of the risk probability of piecewise deterministic Markov decision processes(PDMDPs)with unbounded transition rates and Borel spaces.Different from the expected discounted and average criteria in the existing literature,we consider the risk probability that the total rewards produced by a system do not exceed a prescribed goal during a first passage time to some target set,and aim to find a policy that minimizes the risk probability over the class of all history-dependent policies.Under suitable conditions,we derive the optimality equation(OE)for the probability criterion,prove that the value function of the minimization problem is the unique solution to the OE,and establish the existence ofε(≥0)-optimal policies.Finally,we provide two examples to illustrate our results.

Continuous-Time Models for Firm Valuation and Their Collateral Effect on Risk-Neutral Probabilities and No-Arbitraging Principle

Extensions of Merton’s model(EMM)considering the firm’s payments and generating new types of firm value distribution are suggested.In the open log-value/time space,these distributions evolve from initially normal to negatively skewed ones,and their means are concave-down functions of time.When payments are set to zero or proportional to the firm value,EMM turns into the Geometric Brownian model(GBM).We show that risk-neutral probabilities(RNPs)and the no-arbitraging principle(NAP)follow from GBM.When firm’s payments are considered,RNPs and NAP hold for the entire market for short times only,but for long-term investments,RNPs and NAP just temporarily hold for individual stocks as far as mean year returns of the firms issuing those stocks remain constant,and fail when the mean year returns decline.The developed method is applied to firm valuation to derive continuous-time equations for the firm present value and project NPV.

Ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in surface seawater and sediment near the outlet of a zinc factory in Huludao City, Liaoning Province, China

At present, the methods widely applied to assess ecological risk of heavy metals are essentially single-point estimates in which exposure and toxicity data cannot be fully used and probabilities of adverse biological effects cannot be achieved. In this study, based on investigation of concentrations of six heavy metals(As, Hg, Pb, Cd, Cu, and Zn) in the surface seawater and sediment near the outlet of a zinc factory, located in Huludao City, Liaoning Province, China, a tiered approach consisting of several probabilistic options was used to refi ne ecological risk assessment for the individuals. A mixture of various heavy metals was detected in the surface seawater, and potential ecological risk index(PERI) was adopted to assess the potential ecological risk of heavy metals in the surface sediment. The results from all levels of aquatic ecological risk assessment in the tiered framework, ranging from comparison of single effects and exposure values to the use of distribution-based Hazard Quotient obtained through Monte Carlo simulation, are consistent with each other. Briefl y, aquatic Zn and Cu posed a clear ecological risk, while Cd, Pb, Hg, and As in the water column posed potential risk. As expected, combined ecological risk of heavy metal mixture in the surface seawater was proved signifi cantly higher than the risk caused by any individual heavy metal, calculated using the concept of total equivalent concentration. According to PERI, the severity of pollution by the six heavy metals in the surface sediment decreased in the following sequence: Cd>Hg>As>Pb>Cu>Zn, and the total heavy metals in the sediment posed a very high risk to the marine environment. This study provides a useful mathematical framework for ecological risk assessment of heavy metals.

Risk Assessment Based on Fault Tree Analysis for Damaged Pipe Repair During Operation in Petrochemical Plant

In petrochemical plant, the in-operation repairing is usually a repairing strategy with pressured inoperation repairing for avoiding huge economic losses caused by unplanned shutdown when some slight local leakage happens in pipes. This paper studies the effects of repairing strategies on the failure probability of the pipe systems in process industries based on the time-average fault tree approach, especially the in-operation repairing strategies including pressured in-operation repairing activities. The fault tree model can predict the effect of different repairing plans on the pipe failure probability, which is significant to the optimization of the repairing plans. At first pipes are distinguished into four states in this model, i.e., successive state, flaw state, leakage state and failure state. Then the fault tree approach, which is usually applied in the studies of dynamic equipment, is adopted to model the pipe failure. Moreover, the effect of pressured in-operation repairing is also considered in the model. In addition, this paper proposes a series of time-average parameters of the fault tree model, all of which are used to calculate node parameters of the fault tree model. At last, a practical case is calculated based on the fault tree model in a repairing activity of pipe thinning.

Quantitative assessment of flight safety under atmospheric icing conditions

A quantitative assessment method is proposed to sense the specific effects of atmospheric icing conditions on flight safety. A six degree-of-freedom computational flight dynamics model is used to study the effects of ice accretion on aircraft dynamics, and a pilot model is also involved. In order to investigate icing severity under different icing conditions, support vector regression is applied in establishing relationship between aircraft icing parameter and weather conditions. Considering the characteristics of aircraft icing accidents, a risk probability assessment model optimized by the particle swarm method is developed to measure the safety level. In particular, angle of attack is chosen as a critical parameter in this method. Results presented in the paper for a series of simulation show that this method captures the basic effects of atmospheric icing conditions on flight safety, which may provide an important theoretical reference for icing accidents avoidance.

Prediction of hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer using mRNA MSH2 quantitative and the correlation with nonmodifiable factor

BACKGROUND Hereditary non-polyposis colon cancer is a dominantly inherited syndrome of colorectal cancer(CRC),with heightened risk for younger population.Previous studies link its susceptibility to the DNA sequence polymorphism along with Amsterdam and Bethesda criteria.However,those fail in term of applicability.AIM To determine a clear cut-off of MSH2 gene expression for CRC heredity grouping factor.Further,the study also aims to examine the association of risk factors to the CRC heredity.METHODS The cross-sectional study observed 71 respondents from May 2018 to December 2019 in determining the CRC hereditary status through MSH2 mRNA expression using reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and the disease’s risk factors.Data were analyzed through Chi-Square,Fischer exact,t-test,Mann-Whitney,and multiple logistics.RESULTS There are significant differences of MSH2 within CRC group among tissue and blood;yet,negative for significance between groups.Through the blood gene expression fifth percentile,the hereditary CRC cut-off is 11059 fc,dividing the 40 CRC respondents to 32.5%with hereditary CRC.Significant risk factors include age,family history,and staging.Nonetheless,after multivariate control,age is just a confounder.Further,the study develops a probability equation with area under the curve 82.2%.CONCLUSION Numerous factors have significant relations to heredity of CRC patients.However,true important factors are staging and family history,while age and others are confounders.The study also established a definite cut-off point for heredity CRC based on mRNA MSH2 expression,11059 fc.These findings shall act as concrete foundations on further risk factors and/or genetical CRC future studies.

Analysis of Optimal Portfolio with Different Utility Function

The question of optimal portfolio is that finds the trading strategy satisfying the maximal expected utility function subject to some constraints. There is the optimal trading strategy under the risk neutral probability measure （martingale measure） if and only if there is no-arbitrage opportunity in the market. This paper argues the optimal wealth and the optimal value of expected utility with different utility function.

Existence and Uniqueness of Positive Solutions for a System of Multi-order Fractional Differential Equations

In this paper, we study a class of ruin problems, in which premiums and claims are dependent. Under the assumption that premium income is a stochastic process, we raise the model that premiums and claims are dependent, give its numerical characteristics and the ruin probability of the individual risk model in the surplus process. In addition, we promote the number of insurance policies to a Poisson process with parameter λ, using martingale methods to obtain the upper bound of the ultimate ruin probability.

Nuclear Energy and Its History: Past Consequences, Present Inadequacies and a Perspective for Success

An attempt is made to locate nuclear technology within a logical context considering history, risks, societal catastrophes and perspectives: the need is identified for a new direction in the exploitation in order to restore the role in energy production. We depict the situation coming from a marvelous history of discoveries started at the beginning of the XX century;heroes are recalled who made possible something that is inconceivable today: design, construction and production of electricity in a few years;that history was tainted by intentional nuclear explosions, i.e. the original sin that we are now paying. Then, we attempt to show that the societal risk is an inherent part of the civilization. Restoring the public trust (towards nuclear fission technology) by matching nuclear safety with the current technological status and advancers in risk assessment is the key objective. The “independent assessment”, or a principle for the exploitation of nuclear energy already stated in the 50’s of the previous century, shall then re-appear. This is used to erect the signpost for a “dynamic barricade” to further reduce the risk of operation of nuclear reactors and to match the design with current technological capabilities and with the frontiers of the research.

An experimental method to obtain the hard alpha anomaly distribution for titanium alloy aeroengine disks

A probability-based damage tolerance methodology has been proposed to improve the recognition of material anomalies, especially hard alpha(TiN) anomalies for aeroengine rotor disks. A key input to this method is hard alpha anomaly distribution, which reflects the occurrence rate and size of anomalies present in the finished part material of titanium rotors. Since anomalies rarely occur naturally, an experimental method is proposed to obtain the anomaly distribution for titanium alloy aeroengine disks to reflect and equivalently replace the manufacturing development in titanium industry. In general, the anomaly distribution information can be divided into two parts: the Probability of Detection(POD) curve and the detected anomaly distribution, which contains the size and frequency data of the detected anomalies. The distribution can be established based on several appropriate assumptions and derivation steps with different confidence levels of POD curves and detected anomaly distributions. In this case, the distribution can be obtained in a relatively short time as a key input to the probability-based damage tolerance methodology. Then the Probability of Failure(POF) can be calculated, and the value is found to vary with different confidence levels. On this basis, the conservative estimated POF can be obtained in conjunction with confidence levels.