Analysis of debris flow control effect and hazard assessment in Xinqiao Gully,Wenchuan M_(s)8.0 earthquake area based on numerical simulation

Xinqiao Gully is located in the area of the 2008 Wenchuan M_(s)8.0 earthquake in Sichuan province,China.Based on the investigation of the 2023"6-26"Xinqiao Gully debris flow event,this study assessed the effectiveness of the debris flow control project and evaluated the debris flow hazards.Through field investigation and numerical simulation methods,the indicators of flow intensity reduction rate and storage capacity fullness were proposed to quantify the effectiveness of the engineering measures in the debris flow event.The simulation results show that the debris flow control project reduced the flow intensity by41.05%to 64.61%.The storage capacity of the dam decreases gradually from upstream to the mouth of the gully,thus effectively intercepting and controlling the debris flow.By evaluating the debris flow of different recurrence intervals,further measures are recommended for managing debris flow events.

Health risk assessment of trace metal(loid)s in agricultural soils based on Monte Carlo simulation coupled with positive matrix factorization model in Chongqing, southwest China

This study aimed to investigate the pollution characteristics, source apportionment, and health risks associated with trace metal(loid)s(TMs) in the major agricultural producing areas in Chongqing, China. We analyzed the source apportionment and assessed the health risk of TMs in agricultural soils by using positive matrix factorization(PMF) model and health risk assessment(HRA) model based on Monte Carlo simulation. Meanwhile, we combined PMF and HRA models to explore the health risks of TMs in agricultural soils by different pollution sources to determine the priority control factors. Results showed that the average contents of cadmium(Cd), arsenic (As), lead(Pb), chromium(Cr), copper(Cu), nickel(Ni), and zinc(Zn) in the soil were found to be 0.26, 5.93, 27.14, 61.32, 23.81, 32.45, and 78.65 mg/kg, respectively. Spatial analysis and source apportionment analysis revealed that urban and industrial sources, agricultural sources, and natural sources accounted for 33.0%, 27.7%, and 39.3% of TM accumulation in the soil, respectively. In the HRA model based on Monte Carlo simulation, noncarcinogenic risks were deemed negligible(hazard index <1), the carcinogenic risks were at acceptable level(10^(-6)<total carcinogenic risk ≤ 10^(-4)), with higher risks observed for children compared to adults. The relationship between TMs, their sources, and health risks indicated that urban and industrial sources were primarily associated with As, contributing to 75.1% of carcinogenic risks and 55.7% of non-carcinogenic risks, making them the primary control factors. Meanwhile, agricultural sources were primarily linked to Cd and Pb, contributing to 13.1% of carcinogenic risks and 21.8% of non-carcinogenic risks, designating them as secondary control factors.

Assessment of Ecosystems Damages Caused by Russian War against Ukraine

The question of the impact of war on ecosystems still remains secondary in the internal and external policy of states, society and the agenda of international organizations. From the point of view of losses in monetary terms, the values of ecosystem damages obtained in the work, which are a consequence of the impact of hostilities on the environment, correspond to the annual budgets of the largest countries in the world or exceed them. The presented calculations significantly exceed the known normative methods, the use of which in the conditions of war is limited in space and time. Objective difficulties associated with the uncertainty of many processes of the development of ecological systems and their reaction to the multifactorial impact of war are also significant limitations. Therefore, as part of the study, a method of assessing the impact of war on the environment is proposed, which is based on the patterns of energy flows in ecosystems from the moment it is binding by producers. This made it possible to take into account in the calculations the principle of functional integrity of the ecological system, according to which the destruction or damage of the components of a functionally whole environment will necessarily cause negative phenomena in the development of ecological systems. The results are presented in the form of real values of ecological losses in energy and monetary equivalents, as consequences of the loss of ecosystem services. As the results of the research show, the minimum amount of damage to ecosystems from Russian tanks is 43,500 USD per day. Environmental damage from Russian fighter jets has been estimated at $1.5 billion per week since the start of the war. Noise from military operations causes losses of at least 2.3 billion US dollars per year. The obtained results create prerequisites for improving the system of ensuring environmental safety at the local, state, and international levels and transferring the obtained solutions into safety-shaping practice.

Distribution, Mobility, and Health Risks Assessment of Trace Metals in River Sediments from Intense Agricultural Activity Areas in West Africa

The economy of West African countries is mainly based on agriculture. However, the trace metal(loid)s contamination status in rivers is relatively unknown in the region. In this work, 45 surface sediments collected from the Bandama, Comoé, and Bia Rivers in south and south eastern Côte d’Ivoire (West Africa), were analyzed for total metal concentrations and chemical speciation. The results showed that the river sediments were considerably contaminated by Cd and moderately contaminated by As, Cu, Pb, and Zn. Significant spatial variations were observed among the stations but not between the rivers. Metals Cd and Cu were likely to cause more ecological risks. The speciation analysis unravelled that the metal(loid)s partitioned mainly in the residual fraction, with the potential mobile fraction varying from 14% to 28%. The study calls for establishment of strict policies relative to the application of fertilizers and agrochemicals and mining activities to protect the environment and human health risks.

A wave energy resource assessment in the China's seas based on multi-satellite merged radar altimeter data

Wave energy resources are abundant in both offshore and nearshore areas of the China＇s seas. A reliable assessment of the wave energy resources must be performed before they can be exploited. First, for a water depth in offshore waters of China, a parameterized wave power density model that considers the effects of the water depth is introduced to improve the calculating accuracy of the wave power density. Second, wave heights and wind speeds on the surface of the China＇s seas are retrieved from an AVISO multi-satellite altim-eter data set for the period from 2009 to 2013. Three mean wave period inversion models are developed and used to calculate the wave energy period. Third, a practical application value for developing the wave energy is analyzed based on buoy data. Finally, the wave power density is then calculated using the wave field data. Using the distribution of wave power density, the energy level frequency, the time variability indexes, the to-tal wave energy and the distribution of total wave energy density according to a wave state, the offshore wave energy in the China＇s seas is assessed. The results show that the areas of abundant and stable wave energy are primarily located in the north-central part of the South China Sea, the Luzon Strait, southeast of Taiwan in the China＇s seas; the wave power density values in these areas are approximately 14.0–18.5 kW/m. The wave energy in the China’s seas presents obvious seasonal variations and optimal seasons for a wave energy utilization are in winter and autumn. Except for very coastal waters, in other sea areas in the China＇s seas, the energy is primarily from the wave state with 0.5 m≤Hs≤4 m, 4 s≤Te≤10 s whereHs is a significant wave height andTe is an energy period; within this wave state, the wave energy accounts for 80% above of the total wave energy. This characteristic is advantageous to designing wave energy convertors （WECs）. The practical application value of the wave energy is higher which can be as an effective supplement for an energy con-sumption in some areas. The above results are consistent with the wave model which indicates fully that this new microwave remote sensing method altimeter is effective and feasible for the wave energy assessment.

Probabilistic seismic landslide hazard assessment: a case study in Tianshui, Northwest China

Probabilistic analysis in the field of seismic landslide hazard assessment is often based on an estimate of uncertainties of geological, geotechnical,geomorphological and seismological parameters.However, real situations are very complex and thus uncertainties of some parameters such as water content conditions and critical displacement are difficult to describe with accurate mathematical models. In this study, we present a probabilistic methodology based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method and the Newmark’s displacement model. The Tianshui seismic zone(105°00′-106°00′ E, 34°20′-34°40′ N) in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau were used as an example. Arias intensity with three standard probabilities of exceedance(63%, 10%, and 2% in 50 years) in accordance with building design provisions were used to compute Newmark displacements by incorporating the effects of topographic amplification.Probable scenarios of water content condition were considered and three water content conditions(dry,wet and saturated) were adopted to simulate the effect of pore-water on slope. The influence of 5 cm and 10 cm critical displacements were investigated in order to analyze the sensitivity of critical displacement to the probabilities of earthquake-induced landslide occurrence. The results show that water content in particular, have a great influence on the distribution of high seismic landslide hazard areas. Generally, the dry coverage analysis represents a lower bound for susceptibility and hazard assessment, and the saturated coverage analysis represents an upper bound to some extent. Moreover, high seismic landslide hazard areas are also influenced by the critical displacements. The slope failure probabilities during future earthquakes with critical displacements of 5 cm can increase by a factor of 1.2 to 2.3 as compared to that of 10 cm. It suggests that more efforts are required in order to obtain reasonable threshold values for slope failure. Considering the probable scenarios of water content condition which is varied with seasons, seismic landslide hazard assessments are carried out for frequent, occasional and rare earthquake occurrences in the Tianshui region, which can provide a valuable reference for landslide hazard management and infrastructure design in mountainous seismic zones.

Sequential organ failure assessment score is superior to other prognostic indices in acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND Acute pancreatitis(AP)is a common surgical condition,with severe AP(SAP)potentially lethal.Many prognostic indices,including;acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II score(APACHE II),bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis(BISAP),Glasgow score,harmless acute pancreatitis score(HAPS),Ranson’s score,and sequential organ failure assessment(SOFA)evaluate AP severity and predict mortality.AIM To evaluate these indices'utility in predicting severity,intensive care unit(ICU)admission,and mortality.METHODS A retrospective analysis of 653 patients with AP from July 2009 to September 2016 was performed.The demographic,clinical profile,and patient outcomes were collected.SAP was defined as per the revised Atlanta classification.Values for APACHE II score,BISAP,HAPS,and SOFA within 24 h of admission were retrospectively obtained based on laboratory results and patient evaluation recorded on a secure hospital-based online electronic platform.Data with<10%missing data was imputed via mean substitution.Other patient information such as demographics,disease etiology,and patient outcomes were also derived from electronic medical records.RESULTS The mean age was 58.7±17.5 years,with 58.7%males.Gallstones(n=404,61.9%),alcohol(n=38,5.8%),and hypertriglyceridemia(n=19,2.9%)were more common aetiologies.81(12.4%)patients developed SAP,20(3.1%)required ICU admission,and 12(1.8%)deaths were attributed to SAP.Ranson’s score and APACHE-II demonstrated the highest sensitivity in predicting SAP(92.6%,80.2%respectively),ICU admission(100%),and mortality(100%).While SOFA and BISAP demonstrated lowest sensitivity in predicting SAP(13.6%,24.7%respectively),ICU admission(40.0%,25.0%respectively)and mortality(50.0%,25.5%respectively).However,SOFA demonstrated the highest specificity in predicting SAP(99.7%),ICU admission(99.2%),and mortality(98.9%).SOFA demonstrated the highest positive predictive value,positive likelihood ratio,diagnostic odds ratio,and overall accuracy in predicting SAP,ICU admission,and mortality.SOFA and Ranson’s score demonstrated the highest area under receiver-operator curves at 48 h in predicting SAP(0.966,0.857 respectively),ICU admission(0.943,0.946 respectively),and mortality(0.968,0.917 respectively).CONCLUSION The SOFA and 48-h Ranson’s scores accurately predict severity,ICU admission,and mortality in AP,with more favorable statistics for the SOFA score.

Assessment of China's International Environment and U.S. Strategic Trend

It is of great significance to have a clear understanding of the international environment that China faces. But this is an uneasy job. Since September 11, the world situation has become so complicated that it is hard to grasp its essence even with painstaking efforts. To judge such an already complicated international environment from China’s perspective adds more difficulties, for different people usually have different views due to the different angles from which they see the situation and different methods they adopt. This, understandably, leads to hot debates within the Chinese academic circles. To provide a stage for exchange of views, at the invitation of the CIR Expert Forum, some well-known scholars and experts on international relations from Beijing gathered to hold a symposium on November 5, 2002, with the theme of "How to assess the international environment that China faces". The speeches at the symposium will be published in two installments. Following are the first half.

Spatial distribution prediction and benefits assessment of green manure in the Pinggu District,Beijing,based on the CLUE-S model

Green manure use in China has declined rapidly since the 1980 s with the extensive use of chemical fertilizers.The deterioration of field environments and the demand for green agricultural products have resulted in more attention to green manure.Human intervention and policy-oriented behaviors likely have large impacts on promoting green manure planting.However,little information is available regarding on where,at what rates,and in which ways（i.e.,intercropping green manure in orchards or rotating green manure in cropland） to develop green manure and what benefits could be gained by incorporating green manure in fields at the county scale.This paper presents the conversion of land use and its effects at small region extent（CLUE-S） model,which is specifically developed for the simulation of land use changes originally,to predict spatial distribution of green manure in cropland and orchards in 2020 in Pinggu District located in Beijing,China.Four types of land use for planting or not planting green manure were classified and the future land use dynamics（mainly croplands and orchards） were considered in the prediction.Two scenarios were used to predict the spatial distribution of green manure based on data from 2011：The promotion of green manure planting in orchards（scenario 1） and the promotion of simultaneous green manure planting in orchards and croplands（scenario 2）.The predictions were generally accurate based on the receiver operating characteristic（ROC） and Kappa indices,which validated the effectiveness of the CLUE-S model in the prediction.In addition,the spatial distribution of the green manure was acquired,which indicated that green manure mainly located in the orchards of the middle and southern regions of Dahuashan,the western and southern regions of Wangxinzhuang,the middle region of Shandongzhuang,the eastern region of Pinggu and the middle region of Xiagezhuang under scenario 1.Green manure planting under scenario 2 occurred in orchards in the middle region of Wangxinzhuang,and croplands in most regions of Daxingzhuang,southern Pinggu,northern Xiagezhuang and most of Mafang.The spatially explicit results allowed for the assessment of the benefits of these changes based on different economic and ecological indicators.The economic and ecological gains of scenarios 1 and 2 were 175691 900 and143000 300 CNY,respectively,which indicated that the first scenario was more beneficial for promoting the same area of green manure.These results can facilitate policies of promoting green manure and guide the extensive use of green manure in local agricultural production in suitable ways.

Risk assessment of water security in Haihe River Basin during drought periods based on D-S evidence theory

The weights of the drought risk index （DRI）, which linearly combines the reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability, are difficult to obtain due to complexities in water security during drought periods. Therefore, drought entropy was used to determine the weights of the three critical indices. Conventional simulation results regarding the risk load of water security during drought periods were often regarded as precise. However, neither the simulation process nor the DRI gives any consideration to uncertainties in drought events. Therefore, the Dempster-Shafer （D-S） evidence theory and the evidential reasoning algorithm were introduced, and the DRI values were calculated with consideration of uncertainties of the three indices. The drought entropy and evidential reasoning algorithm were used in a case study of the Haihe River Basin to assess water security risks during drought periods. The results of the new DRI values in two scenarios were compared and analyzed. It is shown that the values of the DRI in the D-S evidence algorithm increase slightly from the original results of Zhang et al. （2005）, and the results of risk assessment of water security during drought periods are reasonable according to the situation in the study area. This study can serve as a reference for further practical application and planning in the Haihe River Basin, and other relevant or similar studies.

Quantitative assessment of motor function on children with cerebral palsy before and after wearing ankle foot orthopedic instruments

Objective To assess motor function quantitatively on children with cerebral palsy before and after wearing ankle foot o rthopedic instruments.Method Ankle foot orthopedic instruments were made by Dalian Prosthesis Factory.Children’ motor function was assessed with self-made quantitative assessment scale according to the forth,fifth f unction area of motor assessment sca le of children with cerebral palsy af ter one week of wearing orthopedic instrume nts.Result In all 23patients,orthopedic instr uments proved effective in controll ing leg muscular tension,correcting equines,genu recurvatu m,talips valgus and talipes varus,k eeping erect posture and modifying g ait.Motor function assessed show significant difference before and o ne week after wearing orthopedic instruments(P <0.001).Conclusion Ankle foot orthopedic instruments play a positive role in improving motor function of lower extremity in cerebral palsy patients.

R/S method for evaluation of pollutant time series in environmental quality assessment

The significance of the fluctuation and randomness of the time series of each pollutant in environmental quality assessment is described for the first time in this paper. A comparative study was made of three different computing methods： the same starting point method, the striding averaging method, and the stagger phase averaging method. All of them can be used to calculate the Hurst index, which quantifies fluctuation and randomness. This study used real water quality data from Shazhu monitoring station on Taihu Lake in Wuxi, Jiangsu Province. The results show that, of the three methods, the stagger phase averaging method is best for calculating the Hurst index of a pollutant time series from the perspective of statistical regularity.

Rasch Model Assessment for Bloom Digital Taxonomy Applications

Assessment using Bloom’s taxonomy levels has evolved in a variety of contexts and uses.In the era of the COVID-19 pandemic,which necessitates use of online assessment,the need for teachers to use digital-based taxonomy skills or Bloom’s Digital Taxonomy(BDT)has increased even more.However,the existing studies on validity and reliability of BDT items are limited.To overcome this limitation,this study aims to test whether BDT has good psychometric characteristics as a teacher’s self-assessment tool using the Rasch model analysis and to investigate the pattern of BDT usage in teaching and learning.By using a quantitative online survey design,this study involves six levels of BDT,namely,Remembering,Understanding,Applying,Analyzing,Evaluating,and Creating.The questionnaire was developed and validated by two experts prior to administration.A stratified random sampling technique was conducted on 774 secondary teachers from five geographical zones in Malaysia,and the Rasch model was analyzed using WINSTEPS 3.71 software.The performances of items improved by Rasch psychometric assessment including the application of BDT among teachers.The hierarchy level was also assessed through graphical analysis,including the Wright map and bubble chart,to demonstrate the powerful performance of the Rasch model analysis in investigating item quality and reliability.Overall,these empirically validated items using the Rasch model could advance the academic knowledge of BDT for future assessment and promote the Rasch calibration in an educational setting.

AltBOC navigation signal quality assessment and measurement

In order to ensure that Chinese BeiDou satellite navigation system runs smoothly,the assessment of signal quality has become a significant task.Alternative binary offset carrier(AltBOC)is BeiDou B2 frequency signal.The acquisition of BeiDou signal is processed in off-line mode and the evaluation is performed by taking signal power spectrum,eye diagram,constellation,correlation,loss and s-curve deviation on AltBOC as signal quality evaluation parameters.The results illustrate that the new system signal,namely AltBOC signal,has the best performance in code tracking precision,anti-jamming and anti-multipath.

Assessments of America's Global Strategy

Ever since Bush entered the White house, especially after 9/11 events, America has successively published series of strategic documents, such as the Nuclear Posture Review, Quadrennial Defense Review, National Security Strategy of the United States of America, National Strategy for Combating Terrorism, National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction. After its unilateralist practices gained points military and lost points politically in the Afghan war and the Iraq war, the multi-lateralist posture on dealing with

Assessment of Water Microbiologic Pollution in Durres＇s Marine Harbour Basin, Albania

The aim of this study is to assess the water microbiologic pollution in Durres＇s Harbour basin and to compare it with European standards. The comparison of heterotrophs and total coliforms level in sampling are the essence of this research. The object of this study is done in four sampling areas of Durres＇s Harbour basin. In order to compare the level of water microbiologic pollution in four areas of Durres＇s Harbour basin, control area is also studied which is a beach area near the Harbour named Apollonia Beach. The sampling areas were： Ferry Terminal （FT）, Fishery Harbor （FH）, East Zone （EZ）, Fuel Quay （FQ） and Apollonia Beach （AB）, respectively. The period of sample-taking was July-October 2008. The strategy used for this purpose consisted in water insemination with coverage method by means of Petri＇s plates according to respective dilutions in culture media Plate Count Agar （PCA） for heterotrophs and MacConkey for total coliforms. The number of colonies that are formed determines the number of cells at the moment of water insemination, the number of heterotrophs in culture media PCA, respectively. The number of pink and red colonies that were formed determines the number of cells at the moment of water insemination, the number of total coliforms in culture media MacConkey, respectively. The measure ofheterotrophic bacteria and total coliforms used is Colony-Forming Units （CFU）/100 mL seawater. （AB） is within European standards. The richest area with heterotrophs is （FH）, which confirms the fact that it is the most polluted microbiologic area in the Harbour basin of Durres. The richest area with total coliforms is （FT）. The poorest area with heterotrophs and total coliforms is （FQ）.

Assessment on the Two New Factors That Influence China's International Environment

The development and changes in international situation after September 11 have exerted complicated influence on China’s external security environment. Therefore, how to judge current international security environment that China faces has become a very hot subject for discussion.

Jiangsu's Top 30 Foreign Trade Enterprises Under Comprehensive Assessment in 1995

1. Jiangsu Textiles Import & Export (Group) Holdings Ltd.2. Jiangsu Garments Import & Export (Group) Holdings Ltd.3. Jiangsu Knitwear and Cotton Textiles Import & Export (Group) Corporation4. Jiangsu Overseas Enterprises (Group) Co. Ltd5. Nanjing Textiles Import & Export Holdings Ltd.6. China Machinery & Equipment Import & Export Corp.(Jiangsu)

粗穗披碱草1H^(t)S染色体特异荧光原位杂交标记开发

小麦-粗穗披碱草1H^(t)S.1BL罗伯逊易位系高抗小麦条锈病和叶锈病,是小麦遗传改良的优异基因源。我们前期利用中国春ph1b基因突变体对该易位系进行诱导,获得了一批诱导后代材料,为了从中准确鉴定小麦-粗穗披碱草1H^(t)S小片段易位系,需要建立能够覆盖粗穗披碱草1H^(t)S染色体的荧光原位杂交(FISH)标记。本研究利用21个小麦及其近缘种探针、61个基于中国春基因组序列新开发的小麦1BS染色体探针以及40个根据简单三碱基重复序列新开发的探针对小麦-粗穗披碱草1H^(t)S.1BL易位系进行非变性FISH分析。结果显示,B74、B76和B77等36个探针(33个为新开发的)在1H^(t)S染色体上具有杂交信号,并且杂交信号可分为仅在染色体末端、仅在着丝粒处、同时在着丝粒处和近着丝粒处、覆盖1H^(t)S约3/4染色体臂、覆盖绝大部分1H^(t)S共五种类型。因此,部分探针单独使用或多个探针联合使用,其信号能覆盖1H^(t)S染色体,能够满足小麦-粗穗披碱草1H^(t)S小片段易位系鉴定,这可为小麦背景中粗穗披碱草染色质追踪提供新的检测手段。

A Brief Clinical Assessment of Cognitive Deficit with Impaired Daily Living Functioning in Parkinson’s Patients with and without Dementia

Cognitive decline in Parkinson’s disease (PD) is defined as dementia which affects activities of daily living (ADL) function. Dementia is one of the recognized issues in the treatment of Parkinson’s disease patients (PDP) as it is becoming a major contributor to morbidity. The objective of our study was to evaluate the cognitive decline in Parkinson’s disease patients (PDP) and the influence of cognition on daily living function deterioration in cognitively impaired and cognitively unimpaired PDP. Cognitively impaired PDP (n = 24), and cognitively unimpaired PDP (n = 16) were administered MoCA and MMSE performance based tests for cognitive measurements and Alzheimer’s Disease Cooperative Study Activities of Daily Living Inventory (ADCS-ADL) to determine everyday functioning. The significances of MoCA and MMSE among cognitively impaired PDP and cognitively unimpaired PDP in univariant analysis were P < 0.001 and P < 0.05. In partial correlation, MoCA was strongly related to ADL function as compare to MMSE (r = 0.623, P = 0.001). Cognitively impaired PDP showed significantly lower score on visuo-construction and attention. Among all variables of MoCA domains, attention is strongly associated with instrumental activity daily living (IADL) scores (logistic regression coefficient = 0.672, P = 0.01). These results suggest that dementia affects daily living performances especially the IADL tasks like attention and execution. Therefore, the assessment of complex daily activities particularly IADL is probably useful for the diagnosis of early stage cognitive impairment in PDP. Further MMSE test is less sensitive than MoCA for detecting significant cognitive decline in PDP and impaired attention is an important determinant of ADL functions in cognitively impaired PDP.