Stochastic Analysis and Modeling of Velocity Observations in Turbulent Flows

Highly turbulent water flows,often encountered near human constructions like bridge piers,spillways,and weirs,display intricate dynamics characterized by the formation of eddies and vortices.These formations,varying in sizes and lifespans,significantly influence the distribution of fluid velocities within the flow.Subsequently,the rapid velocity fluctuations in highly turbulent flows lead to elevated shear and normal stress levels.For this reason,to meticulously study these dynamics,more often than not,physical modeling is employed for studying the impact of turbulent flows on the stability and longevity of nearby structures.Despite the effectiveness of physical modeling,various monitoring challenges arise,including flow disruption,the necessity for concurrent gauging at multiple locations,and the duration of measurements.Addressing these challenges,image velocimetry emerges as an ideal method in fluid mechanics,particularly for studying turbulent flows.To account for measurement duration,a probabilistic approach utilizing a probability density function(PDF)is suggested to mitigate uncertainty in estimated average and maximum values.However,it becomes evident that deriving the PDF is not straightforward for all turbulence-induced stresses.In response,this study proposes a novel approach by combining image velocimetry with a stochastic model to provide a generic yet accurate description of flow dynamics in such applications.This integration enables an approach based on the probability of failure,facilitating a more comprehensive analysis of turbulent flows.Such an approach is essential for estimating both short-and long-term stresses on hydraulic constructions under assessment.

A hybrid decomposition-boosting model for short-term multi-step solar radiation forecasting with NARX neural network

Due to global energy depletion,solar energy technology has been widely used in the world.The output power of the solar energy systems is affected by solar radiation.Accurate short-term forecasting of solar radiation can ensure the safety of photovoltaic grids and improve the utilization efficiency of the solar energy systems.In the study,a new decomposition-boosting model using artificial intelligence is proposed to realize the solar radiation multi-step prediction.The proposed model includes four parts:signal decomposition(EWT),neural network(NARX),Adaboost and ARIMA.Three real solar radiation datasets from Changde,China were used to validate the efficiency of the proposed model.To verify the robustness of the multi-step prediction model,this experiment compared nine models and made 1,3,and 5 steps ahead predictions for the time series.It is verified that the proposed model has the best performance among all models.

Applications of smart proxies for subsurface modeling

Using artificial intelligence(AI) and machine learning(ML) techniques, we developed and validated the smart proxy models for history matching of reservoir simulation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty assessment by artificial neural network(ANN). The smart proxy models were applied on two cases, the first case study investigated the application of a proxy model for calibrating a reservoir simulation model based on historical data and predicting well production while the second case study investigated the application of an ANN-based proxy model for fast-track modeling of CO2 enhanced oil recovery, aiming at the prediction of the reservoir pressure and phase saturation distribution at injection stage and post-injection stage. The prediction effects for both cases are promising. While a single run of basic numerical simulation model takes hours to days, the smart proxy model runs in a matter of seconds, saving 98.9% of calculating time. The results of these case studies demonstrate the advantage of the proposed workflow for addressing the high run-time, computational time and computational cost of numerical simulation models. In addition, these proxy models predict the outputs of reservoir simulation models with high accuracy.

An extended smart driver model considering electronic throttle angle changes with memory

Based on the fact that the electronic throttle angle effect performs well in the traditional car following model,this paper attempts to introduce the electronic throttle angle into the smart driver model(SDM)as an acceleration feedback control term,and establish an extended smart driver model considering electronic throttle angle changes with memory(ETSDM).In order to show the practicability of the extended model,the next generation simulation(NGSIM)data was used to calibrate and evaluate the extended model and the smart driver model.The calibration results show that,compared with SDM,the simulation value based on the ETSDM is better fitted with the measured data,that is,the extended model can describe the actual traffic situation more accurately.Then,the linear stability analysis of ETSDM was carried out theoretically,and the stability condition was derived.In addition,numerical simulations were explored to show the influence of the electronic throttle angle changes with memory and the driver sensitivity on the stability of traffic flow.The numerical results show that the feedback control term of electronic throttle angle changes with memory can enhance the stability of traffic flow,which shows the feasibility and superiority of the proposed model to a certain extent.

UNIFORM-PRICE AUCTION FOR BANDWIDTH ALLOCATION IN THE INTERNET

It has been widely accepted that auctioning which is the pricing approach with minimal information requirement is a proper tool to manage scare network resources. Previous works focus on Vickrey auction which is incentive compatible in classic auction theory. In the beginning of this letter, the faults of the most representative auction-based mechanisms are discussed. And then a new method called Uniform-Price Auction (UPA), which has the simplest auction rule is proposed and its incentive compatibility in the network environment is also proved. Finally, the basic mode is extended to support applications which require minimum bandwidth guarantees for a given time period by introducing derivative market, and a market mechanism for network resource allocation which is predictable, riskless, and simple for end-users is completed.

Smart computing approach for design and scale-up of conical spouted beds with open-sided draft tubes

Open-sided draft tubes provide an optimal gas distribution through a cross flow pattern between the spout and the annulus in conical spouted beds.The design,optimization,control,and scale-up of the spouted beds require precise information on operating and peak pressure drops.In this study,a multi-layer perceptron(MLP)neural network was employed for accurate prediction of these hydrodynamic characteristics.A relatively huge number of experiments were accomplished and the most influential dimensionless groups were extracted using the Buckingham-pi theorem.Then,the dimensionless groups were used for developing the MLP model for simultaneous estimation of operating and peak pressure drops.The iterative constructive technique confirmed that 4-14-2 is the best structure for the MLP model in terms of absolute average relative deviation(AARD%),mean square error(MSE),and regression coefficient(R^(2)).The developed MLP approach has an excellent capacity to predict the transformed operating(MSE=0.00039,AARD%=1.30,and R^(2)=0.76099)and peak(MSE=0.22933,AARD%=11.88,and R2=0.89867)pressure drops.

Socio-demographic impacts on lane-changing response time and distance in work zone with Drivers' Smart Advisory System

Lane-changing behavior is an important component of traffic simulation. A lane-changing action is normally confined to a decision-making process of the task, and the action itself is sometimes assumed as an instantaneous event. Besides, the lane-changing behavior is based mostly on observable positions and speeds of other vehicles, rather than on vehicles＇ intentions. In practice, changing one lane requires about 5-6 s to complete. Existing lanechanging models do not comprehensively consider drivers＇ response to work zone lanechanging signs （or other related messages, if any）. Furthermore, drivers＇ socio-demographics are normally not taken into account. With regard to this, fuzzy logic-based lane-changing models that consider drivers＇ socio-demographics were developed to improve the realism of lane-changing maneuvers in work zones. Drivers＇ Smart Advisory System （DSAS） messages were provided as one of the scenarios. Drivers＇ responses, including reactions to work zone signs and DSAS messages, and actions to change lane, were investigated. Drivers＇ socio-demographic factors were primary independent variables, while Lane-Changing Response Time （LCRT） and Distance （LCRD） were defined as output variables. The model validation process yielded acceptable error ranges. To illustrate how these models can be used in traffic simulation, the LCRT and LCRD in work zones were estimated for five geo-locations with different socio-demographic specifications. Results show that the DSAS is able to instruct all drivers to prepare and change lanes earlier, thereby shortening the duration of changing lanes. Educational background and age are essential variables, whereas the impacts of gender on the output variables are indistinctive.