随着全球变暖,应对高温热浪事件是未来现代化城市面临的难题之一。本文利用全球模式—Had AM3p提供的3组不同边界场和初始场驱动区域气候模式系统PRECIS的输出结果,模拟未来情景下中国区域性高温热浪事件发生频率、强度及持续时间的变...随着全球变暖,应对高温热浪事件是未来现代化城市面临的难题之一。本文利用全球模式—Had AM3p提供的3组不同边界场和初始场驱动区域气候模式系统PRECIS的输出结果,模拟未来情景下中国区域性高温热浪事件发生频率、强度及持续时间的变化趋势。结果表明:全球PRECIS对基准时段(1961—1990年)的高温热浪事件的发生的频率、强度和持续时间及对应的大气环流特征具有较强的模拟能力。相对于基准时段,未来情景下未来时段(2071—2100年)中国各地区的高温热浪事件的强度增加,发生频率增幅超过100%,且持续时间增加30%以上。此外,观测资料和模拟结果均表明武汉和哈尔滨地区的高温热浪与500 h Pa高度场的正距平密切相关。而未来情景下,武汉和哈尔滨地区500 h Pa高度场的正距平呈增加的趋势,表明这些地区未来可能出现危害更严重的高温热浪事件。展开更多
This paper applies the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, namely IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigate the change of the North China climate with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general ...This paper applies the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, namely IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigate the change of the North China climate with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. In the last three decades of the 21st century, the global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast, and hence, causes the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation to he strengthened (weakened). The rainfall seasonality strengthens and the summer precipitation increases significantly in North China. It is suggested that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward to North China in the last three decades of the 21st century. In addition, the North China precipitation would increase significantly in September. In July, August, and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enlarges evidently over North China, implying a risk of flooding in the future.展开更多
The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index （GPI） was employed to investigate possible impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific （WNP）. The outputs of 20th century clima...The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index （GPI） was employed to investigate possible impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific （WNP）. The outputs of 20th century climate simulation by eighteen GCMs were used to evaluate the models＇ ability to reproduce tropical cyclone genesis via the GPI. The GCMs were found in general to reasonably reproduce the observed spatial distribution of genesis. Some of the models also showed ability in capturing observed temporal variation. Based on the evaluation, the models （CGCM3.1-T47 and IPSL-CM4） found to perform best when reproducing both spatial and temporal features were chosen to project future GPI. Results show that both of these models project an upward trend of the GPI under the SRES A2 scenario, however the rate of increase differs between them.展开更多
The Asian summer monsoon is an important part of the climate system. Investigating the response of the Asian summer monsoon to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols will be meaningful to understand ...The Asian summer monsoon is an important part of the climate system. Investigating the response of the Asian summer monsoon to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols will be meaningful to understand and predict climate variability and climate change not only in Asia but also globally. In order to diagnose the impacts of future anthropogenic emissions on monsoon climates, a coupled general circulation model of the atmosphere and the ocean has been used at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology. In addition to carbon dioxide, the major well mixed greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide, several chlorofluorocarbons, and CFC substitute gases are prescribed as a function of time. The sulfur cycle is simulated interactively, and both the direct aerosol effect and the indirect cloud albedo effect are considered. Furthermore, changes in tropospheric ozone have been pre-calculated with a chemical transport model and prescribed as a function of time and space in the climate simulations. Concentrations of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic emissions of sulfur dioxide are prescribed according to observations （1860-1990） and projected into the future （1990-2100） according to the Scenarios A2 and B2 in Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES, Nakcenovic et al., 2000） developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）. It is found that the Indian summer monsoon is enhanced in the scenarios in terms of both mean precipitation and interannual variability. An increase in precipitation is simulated for northern China but a decrease for the southern part. Furthermore, the simulated future increase in monsoon variability seems to be linked to enhanced ENSO variability towards the end of the scenario integrations.展开更多
Simulations of the Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario were employed to investigate possible d...Simulations of the Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario were employed to investigate possible decadal changes and long-term trends of annual mean atmospheric water balance components over China in the 21st century with reference to the period of 1981-2000. An evaluation showed that RegCM3 can reasonably reproduce annual evapotranspiration, precipitation, and water vapor transport over China, with a better performance for March-June. It was found that the water vapor exchange between the land surface and atmosphere would be significantly intensified in Northwest China by the mid-to late-21st century and that the region would possibly shift to a wetter or drought-mitigated state under global warming. Conversely, the water vapor exchange evidently weakened over the Tibetan Plateau and South-west China by the mid-to late-21st century. In addition, there appears to be a drier state for Northeast China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley by the mid-to late-21st century, with slight mitigation by the end compared with the mid-21st century. The westerly and southwesterly water vapor transport over China generally presents an increasing trend, with increasing diver-gence over the Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China, corresponding to a loss of atmospheric water vapor by water vapor transport.展开更多
文摘随着全球变暖,应对高温热浪事件是未来现代化城市面临的难题之一。本文利用全球模式—Had AM3p提供的3组不同边界场和初始场驱动区域气候模式系统PRECIS的输出结果,模拟未来情景下中国区域性高温热浪事件发生频率、强度及持续时间的变化趋势。结果表明:全球PRECIS对基准时段(1961—1990年)的高温热浪事件的发生的频率、强度和持续时间及对应的大气环流特征具有较强的模拟能力。相对于基准时段,未来情景下未来时段(2071—2100年)中国各地区的高温热浪事件的强度增加,发生频率增幅超过100%,且持续时间增加30%以上。此外,观测资料和模拟结果均表明武汉和哈尔滨地区的高温热浪与500 h Pa高度场的正距平密切相关。而未来情景下,武汉和哈尔滨地区500 h Pa高度场的正距平呈增加的趋势,表明这些地区未来可能出现危害更严重的高温热浪事件。
基金supported by the Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(KZCX2-SW-210)the Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(KZCX2-203)the National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences(G1998040904).
文摘This paper applies the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, namely IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigate the change of the North China climate with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. In the last three decades of the 21st century, the global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast, and hence, causes the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation to he strengthened (weakened). The rainfall seasonality strengthens and the summer precipitation increases significantly in North China. It is suggested that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward to North China in the last three decades of the 21st century. In addition, the North China precipitation would increase significantly in September. In July, August, and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enlarges evidently over North China, implying a risk of flooding in the future.
基金supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences under (Grant Nos.KZCX2-YW-Q1-02 and KZCX2-YW-Q11-05)the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (973 Pro-gram) (Grant No.2009CB421407)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40631005,40775049, and 40805029)
文摘The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index （GPI） was employed to investigate possible impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific （WNP）. The outputs of 20th century climate simulation by eighteen GCMs were used to evaluate the models＇ ability to reproduce tropical cyclone genesis via the GPI. The GCMs were found in general to reasonably reproduce the observed spatial distribution of genesis. Some of the models also showed ability in capturing observed temporal variation. Based on the evaluation, the models （CGCM3.1-T47 and IPSL-CM4） found to perform best when reproducing both spatial and temporal features were chosen to project future GPI. Results show that both of these models project an upward trend of the GPI under the SRES A2 scenario, however the rate of increase differs between them.
文摘The Asian summer monsoon is an important part of the climate system. Investigating the response of the Asian summer monsoon to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols will be meaningful to understand and predict climate variability and climate change not only in Asia but also globally. In order to diagnose the impacts of future anthropogenic emissions on monsoon climates, a coupled general circulation model of the atmosphere and the ocean has been used at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology. In addition to carbon dioxide, the major well mixed greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide, several chlorofluorocarbons, and CFC substitute gases are prescribed as a function of time. The sulfur cycle is simulated interactively, and both the direct aerosol effect and the indirect cloud albedo effect are considered. Furthermore, changes in tropospheric ozone have been pre-calculated with a chemical transport model and prescribed as a function of time and space in the climate simulations. Concentrations of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic emissions of sulfur dioxide are prescribed according to observations （1860-1990） and projected into the future （1990-2100） according to the Scenarios A2 and B2 in Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES, Nakcenovic et al., 2000） developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）. It is found that the Indian summer monsoon is enhanced in the scenarios in terms of both mean precipitation and interannual variability. An increase in precipitation is simulated for northern China but a decrease for the southern part. Furthermore, the simulated future increase in monsoon variability seems to be linked to enhanced ENSO variability towards the end of the scenario integrations.
基金supported by the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China(973 Program,Grant No.2009CB421406)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41130103)
文摘Simulations of the Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario were employed to investigate possible decadal changes and long-term trends of annual mean atmospheric water balance components over China in the 21st century with reference to the period of 1981-2000. An evaluation showed that RegCM3 can reasonably reproduce annual evapotranspiration, precipitation, and water vapor transport over China, with a better performance for March-June. It was found that the water vapor exchange between the land surface and atmosphere would be significantly intensified in Northwest China by the mid-to late-21st century and that the region would possibly shift to a wetter or drought-mitigated state under global warming. Conversely, the water vapor exchange evidently weakened over the Tibetan Plateau and South-west China by the mid-to late-21st century. In addition, there appears to be a drier state for Northeast China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley by the mid-to late-21st century, with slight mitigation by the end compared with the mid-21st century. The westerly and southwesterly water vapor transport over China generally presents an increasing trend, with increasing diver-gence over the Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China, corresponding to a loss of atmospheric water vapor by water vapor transport.
