Lottery Numbers and Ordered Statistics

The lottery has long captivated the imagination of players worldwide, offering the tantalizing possibility of life-changing wins. While winning the lottery is largely a matter of chance, as lottery drawings are typically random and unpredictable. Some people use the lottery terminal randomly generates numbers for them, some players choose numbers that hold personal significance to them, such as birthdays, anniversaries, or other important dates, some enthusiasts have turned to statistical analysis as a means to analyze past winning numbers identify patterns or frequencies. In this paper, we use order statistics to estimate the probability of specific order of numbers or number combinations being drawn in future drawings.

Effect Evaluation of CBL Combined with Rain Classroom Teaching Method in Medical Statistics

Objective: To explore the application effect of CBL combined with rain classroom teaching method in medical statistics courses. Methods: The undergraduate students of medical imaging technology in 2019 and 2020 in a university were selected as the research objects. A cluster sampling method was used to select 79 undergraduate students from 2019 in the control group and 75 undergraduate students from 2020 in the experimental group. Traditional teaching method and CBL combined with rain classroom teaching method was used in the control group and experimental group respectively. The final examination scores of the two groups were compared. In experimental group, the correlation between the average score in the rain classroom and the final examination score was tested, and the teaching effect was evaluated. Results: The average score of final examination in experimental group and control group was 79.13 ± 10.32 points and 71.54 ± 14.752 points, respectively, which had a statistically significant difference (Z = 2.586, P = 0.012);the final examination scores of the students in the experimental group were positively correlated with the average scores of the rain classroom (r = 0.372, P = 0.001), and the proportion of satisfaction in the experimental group was 94.7%. Conclusion: The CBL combined with rain classroom teaching method can improve the teaching effectiveness of medical statistics courses.

Innovations and Challenges in Economic Census Methodology:A Study by the Bureau of Statistics

The Bureau of Statistics has demonstrated a forward-looking strategic approach in its economic census.By leveraging dual innovations in technology and management,and incorporating modern technologies such as big data,cloud computing,and the Internet of Things,it has deepened the reform of the census methodology.Additionally,the Bureau has built a multi-dimensional collaborative network that enhances international cooperation,departmental coordination,and public participation.This approach not only addresses the limitations of traditional statistical methods in a complex economic environment but also improves data quality and census efficiency,providing an accurate and reliable foundation for national economic decision-making.

Integration of Ideological and Political Education into the Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics Course:A Teaching Design Based on Estimation and Hypothesis Testing

With the rapid development of higher education in China,colleges and universities are facing new challenges and impacts in talent training.Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics is one of the important courses in higher education for science and engineering majors and economics and management majors.Its critical role in cultivating students’thinking skills and improving their problem-solving skills is self-evident.Course ideological and political education construction is an important link in college talent training work.Combining ideological and political education with course teaching can help students establish correct value concepts and play a certain role in improving their comprehensive ability and quality.At present,the construction of ideological and political education in the Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics course still faces some problems,mainly manifested in the lack of attention paid by teachers to course ideological and political education,insufficient exploitation of ideological and political elements,and the simplification of ideological and political education implementation methods.In order to comprehensively deepen the construction of course ideological and political education in line with the actual needs of Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics course teaching,we should strengthen the construction of teacher teams,improve teachers’ability to carry out course ideological and political education,integrate educational resources,develop educational resources for ideological and political education,and innovate teaching methods to improve the overall effect of ideological and political education integration.

Research on the Application of PBL+SPOC Blended Teaching Model in Probability and Statistics Course

To cultivate talents with an exploratory spirit and practical skills in the era of information technology,it is imperative to reform teaching methods and approaches.In the teaching process of the Probability and Statistics course,an application-oriented blended teaching model combining problem-based learning and small private online course was explored.By organizing and implementing online and offline teaching activities based on problem-based learning,a multidimensional process-oriented learning assessment system was established.Practice has shown that this model can effectively enhance classroom teaching effectiveness,benefiting the improvement of students’overall skills and mathematical literacy.

留学生Medical Statistics线上课程建设与远程教学的实践与思考

受政治、经济和全球健康等因素影响,远程教育成为高等教育的一个发展趋势。新冠疫情防控期间,受出入境限制,未能返华的留学生一直以远程教学推进学业,成为其间持续进行远程教学最久的群体。本研究总结临床专业本科留学生主干课程Medical Statistics的校级一流线上课程建设与教学实践,并比较了疫情前后,线下教学与远程教学的留学生期末考试成绩,发现远程教学成绩经历波动后逐渐稳定并接近传统线下教学。本文同时对效果影响因素进行了调研和分析,发现“充分学习和使用远程课程中丰富的资源”和“上网是否容易”是留学生学习效果的主要影响因素。提出建设丰富教学资源对促进医学统计学远程学习效果的重要影响,同时提出对策建议,以期进一步提高远程教学水平,服务高校现代化课程体系建设。

Removal of Stripes in Remote Sensing Images Based on Statistics Combined with Image Enhancement

A method to remove stripes from remote sensing images is proposed based on statistics and a new image enhancement method.The overall processing steps for improving the quality of remote sensing images are introduced to provide a general baseline.Due to the differences in satellite sensors when producing images,subtle but inherent stripes can appear at the stitching positions between the sensors.These stitchingstripes cannot be eliminated by conventional relative radiometric calibration.The inherent stitching stripes cause difficulties in downstream tasks such as the segmentation,classification and interpretation of remote sensing images.Therefore,a method to remove the stripes based on statistics and a new image enhancement approach are proposed in this paper.First,the inconsistency in grayscales around stripes is eliminated with the statistical method.Second,the pixels within stripes are weighted and averaged based on updated pixel values to enhance the uniformity of the overall image radiation quality.Finally,the details of the images are highlighted by a new image enhancement method,which makes the whole image clearer.Comprehensive experiments are performed,and the results indicate that the proposed method outperforms the baseline approach in terms of visual quality and radiation correction accuracy.

The asymptotic relation between the first crossing point and the last exit time of Gaussian order statistics sequences

In this paper,we study the asymptotic relation between the first crossing point and the last exit time for Gaussian order statistics which are generated by stationary weakly and strongly dependent Gaussian sequences.It is shown that the first crossing point and the last exit time are asymptotically independent and dependent for weakly and strongly dependent cases,respectively.The asymptotic relations between the first crossing point and the last exit time for stationary weakly and strongly dependent Gaussian sequences are also obtained.

四川省2022年入学新生结核分枝杆菌潜伏感染与肺结核患病情况分析

目的:对2022年四川省入学新生结核病体检情况进行汇总和分析,了解全省入学新生结核分枝杆菌潜伏感染(latent tuberculosis infection,LTBI)与结核病患病情况,为学校新生入学结核病检查工作开展提供理论依据。方法:从四川省学籍管理系统中获得2022年全省各级各类学校入学新生基本信息,制作《2022年秋季新生入学结核病体检信息表》,建立数据库,采用描述性统计分析方法,分析新生入学结核病检查中结核病患者及LTBI者检出情况及其流行病学特征,追踪LTBI者接受预防性治疗及完成情况。结果:2022年四川省各级各类学校入学新生2787900名规范开展结核病体检,占全部新生的97.69%(2787900/2853817),发现活动性肺结核患者247例,检出率为8.86/10万(247/2787900)。其中,女性患病率为10.11/10万(145/1434131),高于男性[7.18/10万(102/1419686)],差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=7.058,P<0.01)。四川省1790830名入学新生开展了LTBI检测,感染率为3.09%(55313/1790830)。符合预防性治疗条件的单纯结核菌素皮肤试验强阳性/重组结核分枝杆菌融合蛋白(EC)或γ-干扰素释放试验阳性者8104例中,13.73%(1113/8104)接受了预防性治疗,925例完成了全疗程,完成治疗率为83.11%,未完成治疗的新生中有2例在治疗期间转为活动性结核病。结论:四川省2022年入学新生体检率高,但LTBI检出率较低,接受预防性治疗率不高。

截至2023年底中国10km以上特长公路隧道统计与分析

在隧道行业相关单位的大力支持及既有统计数据的基础上,对截至2023年底中国已建成运营、正在建设、规划设计的共计74座长度10 km以上的特长公路隧道进行统计,其中,已建成运营特长公路隧道25座,正在建设特长公路隧道31座,规划设计特长公路隧道18座。从隧道长度、所在省份、公路等级、地理位置、技术标准、施工工法、设计与施工单位等方面,对中国已建成运营、正在建设、规划设计的长度10 km以上的特长公路隧道建设情况进行分析,其中:长度在10~14.9 km的隧道共62座,长度在15~19.9 km的隧道共10座,长度大于20 km的隧道共2座;隧道主要集中在中国西南部,约占63%,四川省最多,其次是云南省;高速公路隧道达65座,占比约为88%;山岭公路隧道68座,水下隧道6座;隧道技术标准以双向4车道为主;隧道施工工法以钻爆法为主,近些年出现了TBM+钻爆组合工法;隧道设计单位主要有31家;隧道施工单位主要有52家。

新疆维吾尔自治区和田地区“肺结核主动筛查+全疗程住院治疗”模式对患者发现的效果

目的:定量评价“肺结核主动筛查+全疗程住院治疗”模式在新疆维吾尔自治区(简称“新疆”)和田地区肺结核患者发现中的实施效果,为新疆肺结核防治工作的稳步推进提供科学依据。方法:收集2012年1月至2021年12月新疆和田地区及未实施全疗程住院治疗策略的新疆其他地州肺结核报告发病数据。利用Joinpoint回归模型分析肺结核报告发病率的时间趋势。以2018年7月作为“肺结核主动筛查+全疗程住院治疗”模式干预时间点,根据是否设置对照地区,分别构建单组中断时间序列(interrupted time series, ITS)模型和设置对照的ITS模型(controlled interrupted time series, CITS)分析政策干预效果。结果:2012—2021年新疆和田地区肺结核报告发病率最高为2018年的465.10/10万(10 278例),最低为2021年的129.40/10万(3241例),总体呈现下降趋势(AAPC=-4.5%,P<0.05);2012—2018年肺结核报告发病率呈现上升趋势(APC=10.8%,P<0.05),2018—2021年肺结核报告发病率呈快速下降趋势(APC=-29.0%,P<0.05)。ITS模型分析显示,和田地区实施“肺结核主动筛查+全疗程住院治疗”模式后1个月(2018年7月),报告发病率增加16.859/10万(P=0.001),新型模式实施后的长期效果为肺结核报告发病率呈下降趋势(β3=-1.098,P<0.001)。CITS模型分析显示,和田地区在新型模式实施后1个月(2018年7月),肺结核报告发病率明显增加,增加量比对照地区高14.751/10万(P<0.001),新型模式实施后长期效果为肺结核报告发病率呈下降趋势,平均每月下降0.815/10万(β5+β7=-0.815,P<0.001),下降速度大于对照地区(β7=-0.931,P<0.001)。结论:新疆和田地区实施“肺结核主动筛查+全疗程住院治疗”模式与肺结核报告发病率之间存在动态因果关系,该模式促使肺结核报告发病率在短暂地上升后呈现下降的长期趋势。实施该模式对控制结核病高负担地区肺结核疫情具有明显优势。

基于深度学习的继发性肺结核CT辅助诊断模型构建及验证

目的:评价基于深度学习的继发性肺结核CT辅助诊断模型在临床应用中的价值。方法:回顾性收集2018年12月至2023年4月在重庆市公共卫生医疗救治中心接受胸部CT平扫的2004例患者的病例资料,分为肺部正常组(544例)、普通肺部感染组(526组)和继发性肺结核组(934例)。按照随机分组(通过R语言的sample函数实现训练集和测试集的完全随机分组)的方式,将数据集划分为训练集(1402例,70.0%)和测试集(602例,30.0%)。所有图像采用肺野自动分割算法,获得肺野区域。进一步采用BasicNet和DenseNet算法进行三组间的分类研究。采用曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)、敏感度、特异度和准确率评价模型的分类性能。最后,在测试数据中,将最优模型与3位不同年资的放射科医生的诊断结果进行比较。结果:602例独立测试集中,DenseNet模型的性能优于BasicNet模型,两种模型的平均AUC、敏感度、特异度和准确率分别为92.1%和89.4%、79.7%和74.0%、89.4%和86.6%、86.2%和83.3%。其中,DenseNet模型的诊断性能优于低年资医生(准确率分别为90.7%和89.1%,Kappa=0.677),与中年资和高年资医生的诊断水平(准确率分别为90.7%、92.2%和95.3%,Kappa值分别为0.746和0.819)保持高度一致性。结论:DenseNet模型能较准确地识别继发性肺结核,与放射科中年资医师的诊断水准相当,可以作为继发性肺结核的辅助诊断工具。

资治通鉴与政府统计研究

由北宋史学家司马光编撰的《资治通鉴》包含丰富的统计数据,涵盖户籍人口、赋税徭役、军情战报、农业生产等诸多方面,是研究我国古代政府统计演变历程极为宝贵的史料基础。为总结历史经验,汲取历史智慧,本文基于对《资治通鉴》中统计活动、统计数据、统计思想和统计方法的细致钩沉与深入解读,聚焦典型案例,突出数据治理,从政府统计工作组织开展情况、政府统计的主要内容,以及防范和惩治统计造假等三个部分对五代及以前时期我国政府统计的状况加以刻画与总结。研究发现:我国古代政府统计起步时间早,渐趋成熟和稳定;统计工作历来备受重视,日益成为国家治理的有效工具和相关决策的重要基础;统计造假问题时有发生,防范和惩处力度较大;统计数据的收集利用程度与经济社会状况高度相关;统计与其他领域深度融合,专门的统计问题研究较为欠缺。

黑龙江省保护性耕作技术实施效果统计分析

为跟踪东北黑土地保护性耕作行动计划实施状况,促进保护性耕作技术规范应用,对黑龙江省机械化保护性耕作技术实施情况进行抽样评估具有重要意义。为此,采用五点取样法实测调查抽样县(区)实施保护性耕作地块的保护性耕作方式、动土情况及秸秆覆盖率,调查并对比分析保护性耕作地块与相邻的非保护性耕作地块玉米株高、杂草及病虫发生情况。结果表明:黑龙江省采用免耕播种和少耕播种方式实施保护性耕作技术,在玉米生长中后期动土率低于50%的实施保护性耕作技术地块占总调研地块的75%,秸秆覆盖率大于30%的实施保护性耕作地块比例占60%;实施免耕或少耕等保护性耕作技术地块的玉米株高、杂草及病虫发生机率与相邻非保护性耕作地块差异不大,整体效果较好,尤其在遭受大风和强降雨灾害地区,实施保护性耕作技术种植的玉米抗倒伏优势明显;实施保护性耕作技术可以减少机械生产作业环节,降低农业生产成本,有效保护黑土资源,在黑龙江省具有较好的推广前景。

2017—2021年云南省肺结核与糖尿病共病患者抗结核治疗效果及影响因素分析

目的:分析云南省利福平敏感肺结核与糖尿病共病患者(简称“共病患者”)抗结核治疗效果及影响治疗效果的危险因素,为改善共病患者抗结核治疗效果提供依据。方法:通过“中国疾病预防控制信息系统”子系统“监测报告管理系统”获取2017年1月1日至2021年12月31日云南省登记的共病患者病案信息,包括社会人口学信息、结核病诊断信息、抗结核治疗信息和抗结核治疗结局判定信息等,最终纳入3984例。分析共病患者抗结核治疗效果,并运用Cox回归模型分析影响共病患者治疗结局的危险因素。结果:3984例共病患者抗结核成功治疗率为89.36%(3560/3984),不良治疗结局发生率为10.64%(424/3984),死亡占4.27%(170/3984),治疗过程中丢失占2.46%(98/3984),失败占2.31%(92/3984),因药物不良反应中断治疗占1.61%(64/3984)。44.22%(179/424)的不良结局发生在治疗的前2个月。Cox回归模型分析显示,≥65岁者出现不良治疗结局的风险较<35岁者高(HR=2.612,95%CI:1.483~4.601),复治患者出现不良治疗结局的风险是初治患者的1.405倍(95%CI:1.072~1.843),病原学阳性者出现不良治疗结局的风险是阴性或未查患者的1.473倍(95%CI:1.183~1.834)。结论:云南省共病患者抗结核治疗效果不佳,应重视共病患者,尤其是≥65岁老年人、复治、病原学阳性患者,抗结核治疗过程中治疗效果监测及健康管理,及时给予干预。

人行悬索桥的步行参数研究

以九峰山人行悬索桥为观测点,采用视频记录与人工筛选相结合的方法获取了2236个行人样本的实测数据,进而统计得到人行悬索桥上的行人步行参数(步频、步幅和步速)的分布特性和统计值,并给出了人行悬索桥上的步频-步速、步幅-步速和步频-步幅之间的转换关系式,得到以下结论:1)在人行悬索桥上,全部行人的步行参数都服从正态分布,即步频~N(1.726,0.258)Hz、步幅~N(0.596,0.094)m、步速~N(1.013,0.260)m/s,它们的合理性也在某工程实例的应用中得以验证;2)人行悬索桥上的行人步行参数的均值(标准差)要小于(大于)其他行走环境所统计得到的行人步行参数的均值(标准差);3)中国人的步频和步幅的均值(标准差)都小于(大于)西方人的步频和步幅的均值(标准差).因此,在设计我国的人行悬索桥时,不能直接采用其他人种和行走环境的行人步行参数的统计值,而应采用适合于人行悬索桥的步行参数.

中国大健康产业统计分类与产业规模再测算

由于产业间深度融合,新业态、新模式持续涌现,健康产业的边界不断拓展,原有的健康产业统计分类已不能满足大健康产业的统计需要,官方统计也未测算出健康产业增加值,无法全面、及时反映大健康产业的发展状况。因此,文章首先在健康产业基础上从供给和需求角度界定并拓展大健康产业的内涵及外延;其次,在《健康产业统计分类(2019)》的基础上,基于国民经济核算理论,引入“大健康总产品”概念,聚焦“全生命周期”和“全人群”两个着力点,从全产业链产品供给及全口径人群健康需求两个视角探讨大健康产业统计分类标准,补充和完善大健康产业统计分类;最后,依据现有的投入产出表、经济普查及统计年鉴数据,计算各行业的大健康分离系数,据此推算我国大健康产业及健康服务业增加值。结果显示:2018年我国大健康产业增加值为10.27万亿元,其中健康服务业增加值为7.04万亿元,预测2020年、2030年健康服务业增加值分别为8.46万亿元、21.27万亿元,基本符合《“健康中国2030”规划纲要》对健康服务业发展规模的预期。

机器学习在人工增雨效果统计检验中的应用

利用福建省古田人工增雨试验基地2014年1月—2023年1月小时自然降水数据,结合线性拟合、多项式回归和样条回归等多种数学统计方法,开展决策树、支持向量机(SVM)和卷积神经网络(CNN)3种机器学习方法在估测目标区自然降水中的应用研究。目标区和对比区自然雨量关系模型对比结果表明:以区域平均面雨量为统计变量时,CNN和四项式回归效果相对较好,其中CNN的确定系数为0.516,均方根误差为1.097 mm;对平均面雨量进行六次方根变换后,各模型的精准度大幅提升,CNN表现最优,确定系数为0.658,其次为SVM;为克服目标区和对比区雨量时间序列效应及空间分布不均等问题,以面雨量空间格点数据作为研究对象,采用CNN 3种优化器(自适应矩估计、均方根传递和梯度随机下降)算法进行对比,发现基于自适应矩估计优化器建立目标区和对比区雨量关系模型最优,其降水估测值与实测值更接近,均方根误差最小,为0.61 mm。因此,利用CNN方法能够进一步优化目标区和对比区雨量关系模型,可为定量评估人工增雨效果提供参考。

统计活动过程视角下小学“统计与概率”教材内容的分析与比较——以“苏教版”“北师版”为例

以“统计活动过程”视角为理论基础,从统计活动过程的各环节要素对苏教版和北师版小学数学教材中“统计与概率”内容进行分析和比较.研究发现:两版教材在统计活动过程的各环节上有所侧重,整体上各具风格;两版教材均直接突出对统计基础知识的重视,并间接蕴涵着对数据意识的培养.对教材使用的启示有:以“统计活动视角”为基础,注重对教材进行创生;将活动视角与统计教学间的“冲突”化为提升素养的机会;进而在统计活动中促进批判性思维的发展.对教材编写或修订提供启发:从学科角度厘清“统计”与“概率”的本质关系,整体把握统计活动的全过程,给予学生更多获取直接经验的机会.

富油煤研究进展与趋势

富油煤是集煤、油、气属性于一身的煤基油气资源,针对国内“相对富煤、缺油、少气”的能源禀赋,开发富油煤对缓解我国紧张的油气资源供应局势、实现煤炭的绿色开发和低碳利用具有重要的意义。以富油煤为主要关键词,通过CNKI和Web of Science数据库检索自1985-2023年底已公开发表的学术论文和专利,统计分析富油煤的发展历程和主要研究内容,梳理了富油煤研究的热点方向与前沿领域,展望了未来发展趋势。研究发现:富油煤热解、赋存特征及沉积环境、孔隙和分子结构、焦油产率预测、微生物降解、资源潜力及开发利用是当前富油煤研究热点内容。富油煤含有热解可生成油气的富氢结构,如脂肪结构的侧链与桥键及缩合芳香核周缘的弱键结构;富油煤多形成于陆相沉积物供应稳定、气候温暖湿润、强还原条件下的沉积环境;孔隙结构影响富油煤的热解反应效率、焦油析出和油气运移,而分子结构(主要为脂肪族氢含量和富氢弱键)决定了富油煤的生油潜力;富油煤通过微生物的水解、发酵、产氢产乙酸和产甲烷4个阶段向油气转化。随着地质选区技术瓶颈突破及多学科交叉与融合,富油煤富油性评价指标与预测方法、富氢组分的来源与定量判识、原位开发围岩封闭性及其评价方法、微生物降解与热解联作技术将成为今后研究的热点方向。研究成果为厘清当前富油煤的研究方向和未来走势奠定了基础。