Many Low Impact Developments (LIDs) have recently been developed as a sustainable integrated strategy for managing the quantity and quality of stormwater and surrounding amenities. Previous research showed that green ...Many Low Impact Developments (LIDs) have recently been developed as a sustainable integrated strategy for managing the quantity and quality of stormwater and surrounding amenities. Previous research showed that green roof is one of the most promising LIDs for slowing down rainwater, controlling rainwater volume, and enhancing rainwater quality by filtering and leaching contaminants from the substrate. However, there is no guideline for green roof design in Malaysia. Hence, Investigating the viability of using green roofs to manage stormwater and address flash flood hazards is urgently necessary. This study used the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) to evaluate the effectiveness of green roof in managing stormwater and improving rainwater quality. The selected study area is the multistory car park (MSCP) rooftop at Swinburne University of Technology Sarawak Campus. Nine green roof models with different configurations were created. Results revealed that the optimum design of a green roof is 100 mm of berm height, 150 mm of soil thickness, and 50 mm of drainage mat thickness. With the ability to reduce runoff generation by 26.73%, reduce TSS by 89.75%, TP by 93.07%, TN by 93.16%, and improved BOD by 81.33%. However, pH values dropped as low as 5.933 and became more acidic due to the substrates in green roof. These findings demonstrated that green roofs improve water quality, able to temporarily store excess rainfall and it is very promising and sustainable tool in managing stormwater.展开更多
Tropical cyclones (TCs) and storms (TSs) are among the devastating events in the world and southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) in particular. The seasonal forecasting TCs and TSs for December to March (DJFM) and November...Tropical cyclones (TCs) and storms (TSs) are among the devastating events in the world and southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) in particular. The seasonal forecasting TCs and TSs for December to March (DJFM) and November to May (NM) over SWIO were conducted. Dynamic parameters including vertical wind shear, mean zonal steering wind and vorticity at 850 mb were derived from NOAA (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis 1 wind fields. Thermodynamic parameters including monthly and daily mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and equatorial Standard Oscillation Index (SOI) were used. Three types of Poison regression models (i.e. dynamic, thermodynamic and combined models) were developed and validated using the Leave One Out Cross Validation (LOOCV). Moreover, 2 × 2 square matrix contingency tables for model verification were used. The results revealed that, the observed and cross validated DJFM and NM TCs and TSs strongly correlated with each other (p ≤ 0.02) for all model types, with correlations (r) ranging from 0.62 - 0.86 for TCs and 0.52 - 0.87 for TSs, indicating great association between these variables. Assessment of the model skill for all model types of DJFM and NM TCs and TSs frequency revealed high skill scores ranging from 38% - 70% for TCs and 26% - 72% for TSs frequency, respectively. Moreover, results indicated that the dynamic and combined models had higher skill scores than the thermodynamic models. The DJFM and NM selected predictors explained the TCs and TSs variability by the range of 0.45 - 0.65 and 0.37 - 0.66, respectively. However, verification analysis revealed that all models were adequate for predicting the seasonal TCs and TSs, with high bias values ranging from 0.85 - 0.94. Conclusively, the study calls for more studies in TCs and TSs frequency and strengths for enhancing the performance of the March to May (MAM) and December to October (OND) seasonal rainfalls in the East African (EA) and Tanzania in particular.展开更多
Recent advances in modeling of tornadoes and twisters consist of significant achievements in mathematical calculation of occurrence and evolution of a violent F5-class tornado on the Fujita scale, and four-dimensional...Recent advances in modeling of tornadoes and twisters consist of significant achievements in mathematical calculation of occurrence and evolution of a violent F5-class tornado on the Fujita scale, and four-dimensional mathematical modeling of a tornado with the fourth coordinate time multiplied by its characteristic velocity. Such a tornado can arise in a thunderstorm supercell filled with turbulent whirlwinds. A theory of the squall storms is proposed. The squall storm is modeled by running pertur- bation of the temperature inversion on the lower boundary of cloudiness. This perturbation is induced by the action of strong, hurricane winds in the upper and middle troposphere, and looks like a running solitary wave (soliton); which is developed also in a field of pressure and velocity of a wind. If a soliton of a squall storm gets into the thunderstorm supercell then this soliton is captured by supercell. It leads to additional pressure fall of air inside a storm supercell and stimulate amplification of wind velocity here. As a result, a cyclostrophic balance inside a storm supercell generates a tornado. Comparison of the radial distribution of wind velocity inside a tornado calculated by using the new formulas and equations with radar observations of the wind velocity inside Texas Tornado Dummit in 1995 and inside the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City Tornado shows good correspondence.展开更多
A regional atmosphere-ocean coupled model, RegCM3-POM, was developed by coupling the regional climate model (RegCM3) with the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). The performance of RegCM3-POM in simulating a persistent s...A regional atmosphere-ocean coupled model, RegCM3-POM, was developed by coupling the regional climate model (RegCM3) with the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). The performance of RegCM3-POM in simulating a persistent snow storm over southern China and the impact of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) on this persistent snow storm were investigated. Compared with the stand-alone RegCM3, the coupled model performed better at reproducing the spatial-temporal evolution and intensity of the precipitation episodes. The power spectral analysis indicated that the coupled model successfully captured the dominant period between 30 and 60 days in the precipitation field, leading to a notable improvement in simulating the magnitude of intraseasonal precipitation variation, and further in enhancing the intensity of the simulated precipitation. These improvements were mainly due to the well-simulated low-frequency oscillation center and its eastward propagation characteristics in each MJO phase by RegCM3-POM, which improved the simulations of MJO-related low-frequency vertical motions, water vapor transport, and the deep inversion layer that can directly influence the precipitation event and that further improved the simulated MJOprecipitation relationship. Analysis of the phase relationship between convection and SST indicated that RegCM3-POM exhibits a near-quadrature relation between the simulated convection and SST anomalies, which was consistent with the observations. However, such a near-quadrature relation was not as significant when the stand-alone RegCM3 was used. This difference indicated that the inherent coupled feedback process between the ocean and atmosphere in RegCM3-POM played an important part in reproducing the features of the MJO that accompanied the snow storm.展开更多
The relationships between the water qualities of nitrogen and phosphorous contents in the discharge water and the discharge of storm runoff of an experimental catchment including terraced paddy field are analyzed base...The relationships between the water qualities of nitrogen and phosphorous contents in the discharge water and the discharge of storm runoff of an experimental catchment including terraced paddy field are analyzed based on experiment results of the catchment. By summarizing the currently related research on water quality models, the water quality models of different components of storm runoff of the catchment are presented and verified with the experiment data of water quality analyses and the corresponding discharge of the storm runoffs during 3 storms. Through estimating the specific discharge of storm runoff, the specific load of different components of nitrogen and phosphorus in the discharge water of the catchment can be forecasted by the models. It is found that the mathematical methods of linear regression are very useful for analysis of the relationship between the concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus and the water discharge of storm runoff. It is also found that the most content of the nitrogen (75%) in the discharge water is organic, while half of the content (49%) of phosphorus in the discharge water is inorganic.展开更多
In this paper, the parametric tropical cyclone models for storm surge modeling are further developed. Instead of tangential wind speed via cyclostrophic balance and radial wind speed using a simple formulation of defe...In this paper, the parametric tropical cyclone models for storm surge modeling are further developed. Instead of tangential wind speed via cyclostrophic balance and radial wind speed using a simple formulation of defection angle, the analyrical expressions of tangential and radial wind speed distribution are derived from the governing momentum equations based on the general symmetric pressure distribution of Holland and Fujita. The radius of the maximum wind is estimated by tropical cyclone wind structure which is characterized by the radial extent of special wind speed. The shape parameter in the pressure model is estimated by the data of several tropical cyclones that occurred in the East China Sea. Finally, the Fred cyclone (typhoon 199417) is calculated, and comparisons of the measured and calculated air pressures and wind speed are presented.展开更多
The Bohai Sea is extremely susceptible to storm surges induced by extratropical storms and tropical cyclones in nearly every season. In order to relieve the impacts of storm surge disasters on structures and human liv...The Bohai Sea is extremely susceptible to storm surges induced by extratropical storms and tropical cyclones in nearly every season. In order to relieve the impacts of storm surge disasters on structures and human lives in coastal regions, it is very important to understand the occurring of the severe storm surges. The previous research is mostly restricted to a single type of storm surge caused by extratropical storm or tropical cyclone. In present paper, a coupled atmosphere-ocean model is developed to study the storm surges induced by two types of extreme weather conditions. Two special cases happened in the Bohai Sea are simulated successively. The wind intensity and minimum sea-level pressure derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model agree well with the observed data. The computed time series of water level obtained from the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) also are in good agreement with the tide gauge observations. The structures of the wind fields and average currents for two types of storm surges are analyzed and compared. The results of coupled model are compared with those from the uncoupled model. The case studies indicate that the wind field and structure of the ocean surface current have great differences between extratropical storm surge and typhoon storm surge. The magnitude of storm surge in the Bohai Sea is shown mainly determined by the ocean surface driving force, but greatly affected by the coastal geometry and bathymetry.展开更多
Kalman filter data assimilation technique is incorporated into a standard two-dimensional linear storm surge model. Imperfect model equation and imperfect meteorological forcimg are accounted for by adding noise terms...Kalman filter data assimilation technique is incorporated into a standard two-dimensional linear storm surge model. Imperfect model equation and imperfect meteorological forcimg are accounted for by adding noise terms to the momentum equations. The deterministic model output is corrected by using the available tidal gauge station data. The stationary Kalman filter algorithm for the model domain is calculated by an iterative procedure using specified information on the inaccuracies in the momentum e- quations and specified error information for the observations. An application to a real storm surge that occurred in the summer of 1956 in the East China Sea is performed by means of this data assimilation technique. The result shows that Kalman filter is useful for storm surge forecast and hindcast.展开更多
The process of transformation of rainfall into runoff over a catchment is very complex and highly nonlinear and exhibits both tempor al and spatial variabilities. In this article, a rainfall-runoff model using th e ar...The process of transformation of rainfall into runoff over a catchment is very complex and highly nonlinear and exhibits both tempor al and spatial variabilities. In this article, a rainfall-runoff model using th e artificial neural networks (ANN) is proposed for simula ting the runoff in storm events. The study uses the data from a coa stal forest catchment located in Seto Inland Sea, Japan. This article studies the accuracy of the short-term rainfall forecast obta ined by ANN time-series analysis techniques and using antecedent rainfa ll depths and stream flow as the input information. The verification results from the proposed model indicate that the approach of ANN rai nfall-runoff model presented in this paper shows a reasonable agreement in rainfall-runoff modeling with high accuracy.展开更多
In this paper,the two parametric tropical cyclone models for storm surge modeling are further developed.The analytical expressions of tangential and radial velocity distribution are derived from the governing momentum...In this paper,the two parametric tropical cyclone models for storm surge modeling are further developed.The analytical expressions of tangential and radial velocity distribution are derived from the governing momentum equations,based on the general symmetric pressure distribution proposed by Holland and Fujita.On the basis of the data of several tropical cyclones that occurred in East China Ocean,the shape parameter in pressure model is estimated.Finally,the Fred cyclone(typhoon 199417)is calculated,and comparisons of measured and calculated air pressures and wind speed are presented.展开更多
Storm surges are abnormal rises in sea level along coastal areas and are mainly formed by strong wind and atmospheric depressions. When storm surges coincide with high tide, coastal flooding can occur. Creating storm ...Storm surges are abnormal rises in sea level along coastal areas and are mainly formed by strong wind and atmospheric depressions. When storm surges coincide with high tide, coastal flooding can occur. Creating storm surge prediction systems has been an important and operational task worldwide. This study developed a coupled tide and storm surge numerical model of the seas around Taiwan for operational purposes at the Central Weather Bureau. The model was calibrated and verified by using tidal records from seas around Taiwan. Model skill was assessed based on measured records, and the results are presented in details. At 3-minute resolution, tides were generally well predicted, with the root mean-square errors of less than 0.11 m and an overall correlation of more than 0.9. Storms (winds and depressions) were introduced into the model forcing by using the parameter typhoon model. Five typical typhoons that threatened Taiwan were simulated for assessment. The surges were well predicted compared with the records.展开更多
Back propagation is employed to forecast the current of a storm with various characteristics of storm surge; the technique is thus important in disaster forecasting. One of the most fuzzy types of information in the p...Back propagation is employed to forecast the current of a storm with various characteristics of storm surge; the technique is thus important in disaster forecasting. One of the most fuzzy types of information in the prediction of geological calamity is handled employing the information diffusion method. First, a single-step prediction model and neural network prediction model are employed to collect influential information used to predict the extreme tide level. Second, information is obtained using the information diffusion method, which improves the precision of risk recognition when there is insufficient information. Experiments demonstrate that the method proposed in this paper is simple and effective and provides better forecast results than other methods. Future work will focus on a more precise forecast model.展开更多
文摘Many Low Impact Developments (LIDs) have recently been developed as a sustainable integrated strategy for managing the quantity and quality of stormwater and surrounding amenities. Previous research showed that green roof is one of the most promising LIDs for slowing down rainwater, controlling rainwater volume, and enhancing rainwater quality by filtering and leaching contaminants from the substrate. However, there is no guideline for green roof design in Malaysia. Hence, Investigating the viability of using green roofs to manage stormwater and address flash flood hazards is urgently necessary. This study used the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) to evaluate the effectiveness of green roof in managing stormwater and improving rainwater quality. The selected study area is the multistory car park (MSCP) rooftop at Swinburne University of Technology Sarawak Campus. Nine green roof models with different configurations were created. Results revealed that the optimum design of a green roof is 100 mm of berm height, 150 mm of soil thickness, and 50 mm of drainage mat thickness. With the ability to reduce runoff generation by 26.73%, reduce TSS by 89.75%, TP by 93.07%, TN by 93.16%, and improved BOD by 81.33%. However, pH values dropped as low as 5.933 and became more acidic due to the substrates in green roof. These findings demonstrated that green roofs improve water quality, able to temporarily store excess rainfall and it is very promising and sustainable tool in managing stormwater.
文摘Tropical cyclones (TCs) and storms (TSs) are among the devastating events in the world and southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) in particular. The seasonal forecasting TCs and TSs for December to March (DJFM) and November to May (NM) over SWIO were conducted. Dynamic parameters including vertical wind shear, mean zonal steering wind and vorticity at 850 mb were derived from NOAA (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis 1 wind fields. Thermodynamic parameters including monthly and daily mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and equatorial Standard Oscillation Index (SOI) were used. Three types of Poison regression models (i.e. dynamic, thermodynamic and combined models) were developed and validated using the Leave One Out Cross Validation (LOOCV). Moreover, 2 × 2 square matrix contingency tables for model verification were used. The results revealed that, the observed and cross validated DJFM and NM TCs and TSs strongly correlated with each other (p ≤ 0.02) for all model types, with correlations (r) ranging from 0.62 - 0.86 for TCs and 0.52 - 0.87 for TSs, indicating great association between these variables. Assessment of the model skill for all model types of DJFM and NM TCs and TSs frequency revealed high skill scores ranging from 38% - 70% for TCs and 26% - 72% for TSs frequency, respectively. Moreover, results indicated that the dynamic and combined models had higher skill scores than the thermodynamic models. The DJFM and NM selected predictors explained the TCs and TSs variability by the range of 0.45 - 0.65 and 0.37 - 0.66, respectively. However, verification analysis revealed that all models were adequate for predicting the seasonal TCs and TSs, with high bias values ranging from 0.85 - 0.94. Conclusively, the study calls for more studies in TCs and TSs frequency and strengths for enhancing the performance of the March to May (MAM) and December to October (OND) seasonal rainfalls in the East African (EA) and Tanzania in particular.
基金supported by the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences in the framework of the theme 'Disasters'
文摘Recent advances in modeling of tornadoes and twisters consist of significant achievements in mathematical calculation of occurrence and evolution of a violent F5-class tornado on the Fujita scale, and four-dimensional mathematical modeling of a tornado with the fourth coordinate time multiplied by its characteristic velocity. Such a tornado can arise in a thunderstorm supercell filled with turbulent whirlwinds. A theory of the squall storms is proposed. The squall storm is modeled by running pertur- bation of the temperature inversion on the lower boundary of cloudiness. This perturbation is induced by the action of strong, hurricane winds in the upper and middle troposphere, and looks like a running solitary wave (soliton); which is developed also in a field of pressure and velocity of a wind. If a soliton of a squall storm gets into the thunderstorm supercell then this soliton is captured by supercell. It leads to additional pressure fall of air inside a storm supercell and stimulate amplification of wind velocity here. As a result, a cyclostrophic balance inside a storm supercell generates a tornado. Comparison of the radial distribution of wind velocity inside a tornado calculated by using the new formulas and equations with radar observations of the wind velocity inside Texas Tornado Dummit in 1995 and inside the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City Tornado shows good correspondence.
基金supported by grants from the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program,Grant Nos.2012CB955901 and 2011CB952002)the National Science and Technology Support Program of China (Grant No.2009BAC51B03)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41105044 and 41105045)
文摘A regional atmosphere-ocean coupled model, RegCM3-POM, was developed by coupling the regional climate model (RegCM3) with the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). The performance of RegCM3-POM in simulating a persistent snow storm over southern China and the impact of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) on this persistent snow storm were investigated. Compared with the stand-alone RegCM3, the coupled model performed better at reproducing the spatial-temporal evolution and intensity of the precipitation episodes. The power spectral analysis indicated that the coupled model successfully captured the dominant period between 30 and 60 days in the precipitation field, leading to a notable improvement in simulating the magnitude of intraseasonal precipitation variation, and further in enhancing the intensity of the simulated precipitation. These improvements were mainly due to the well-simulated low-frequency oscillation center and its eastward propagation characteristics in each MJO phase by RegCM3-POM, which improved the simulations of MJO-related low-frequency vertical motions, water vapor transport, and the deep inversion layer that can directly influence the precipitation event and that further improved the simulated MJOprecipitation relationship. Analysis of the phase relationship between convection and SST indicated that RegCM3-POM exhibits a near-quadrature relation between the simulated convection and SST anomalies, which was consistent with the observations. However, such a near-quadrature relation was not as significant when the stand-alone RegCM3 was used. This difference indicated that the inherent coupled feedback process between the ocean and atmosphere in RegCM3-POM played an important part in reproducing the features of the MJO that accompanied the snow storm.
文摘The relationships between the water qualities of nitrogen and phosphorous contents in the discharge water and the discharge of storm runoff of an experimental catchment including terraced paddy field are analyzed based on experiment results of the catchment. By summarizing the currently related research on water quality models, the water quality models of different components of storm runoff of the catchment are presented and verified with the experiment data of water quality analyses and the corresponding discharge of the storm runoffs during 3 storms. Through estimating the specific discharge of storm runoff, the specific load of different components of nitrogen and phosphorus in the discharge water of the catchment can be forecasted by the models. It is found that the mathematical methods of linear regression are very useful for analysis of the relationship between the concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus and the water discharge of storm runoff. It is also found that the most content of the nitrogen (75%) in the discharge water is organic, while half of the content (49%) of phosphorus in the discharge water is inorganic.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.50909065 and 50879047)
文摘In this paper, the parametric tropical cyclone models for storm surge modeling are further developed. Instead of tangential wind speed via cyclostrophic balance and radial wind speed using a simple formulation of defection angle, the analyrical expressions of tangential and radial wind speed distribution are derived from the governing momentum equations based on the general symmetric pressure distribution of Holland and Fujita. The radius of the maximum wind is estimated by tropical cyclone wind structure which is characterized by the radial extent of special wind speed. The shape parameter in the pressure model is estimated by the data of several tropical cyclones that occurred in the East China Sea. Finally, the Fred cyclone (typhoon 199417) is calculated, and comparisons of the measured and calculated air pressures and wind speed are presented.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41372173 and 51609244the Geological Survey Projects of China Geological Survey under contract No.121201006000182401
文摘The Bohai Sea is extremely susceptible to storm surges induced by extratropical storms and tropical cyclones in nearly every season. In order to relieve the impacts of storm surge disasters on structures and human lives in coastal regions, it is very important to understand the occurring of the severe storm surges. The previous research is mostly restricted to a single type of storm surge caused by extratropical storm or tropical cyclone. In present paper, a coupled atmosphere-ocean model is developed to study the storm surges induced by two types of extreme weather conditions. Two special cases happened in the Bohai Sea are simulated successively. The wind intensity and minimum sea-level pressure derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model agree well with the observed data. The computed time series of water level obtained from the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) also are in good agreement with the tide gauge observations. The structures of the wind fields and average currents for two types of storm surges are analyzed and compared. The results of coupled model are compared with those from the uncoupled model. The case studies indicate that the wind field and structure of the ocean surface current have great differences between extratropical storm surge and typhoon storm surge. The magnitude of storm surge in the Bohai Sea is shown mainly determined by the ocean surface driving force, but greatly affected by the coastal geometry and bathymetry.
基金This project was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No. 40176001 and theHi-tech Rese
文摘Kalman filter data assimilation technique is incorporated into a standard two-dimensional linear storm surge model. Imperfect model equation and imperfect meteorological forcimg are accounted for by adding noise terms to the momentum equations. The deterministic model output is corrected by using the available tidal gauge station data. The stationary Kalman filter algorithm for the model domain is calculated by an iterative procedure using specified information on the inaccuracies in the momentum e- quations and specified error information for the observations. An application to a real storm surge that occurred in the summer of 1956 in the East China Sea is performed by means of this data assimilation technique. The result shows that Kalman filter is useful for storm surge forecast and hindcast.
文摘The process of transformation of rainfall into runoff over a catchment is very complex and highly nonlinear and exhibits both tempor al and spatial variabilities. In this article, a rainfall-runoff model using th e artificial neural networks (ANN) is proposed for simula ting the runoff in storm events. The study uses the data from a coa stal forest catchment located in Seto Inland Sea, Japan. This article studies the accuracy of the short-term rainfall forecast obta ined by ANN time-series analysis techniques and using antecedent rainfa ll depths and stream flow as the input information. The verification results from the proposed model indicate that the approach of ANN rai nfall-runoff model presented in this paper shows a reasonable agreement in rainfall-runoff modeling with high accuracy.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(50909065)
文摘In this paper,the two parametric tropical cyclone models for storm surge modeling are further developed.The analytical expressions of tangential and radial velocity distribution are derived from the governing momentum equations,based on the general symmetric pressure distribution proposed by Holland and Fujita.On the basis of the data of several tropical cyclones that occurred in East China Ocean,the shape parameter in pressure model is estimated.Finally,the Fred cyclone(typhoon 199417)is calculated,and comparisons of measured and calculated air pressures and wind speed are presented.
文摘Storm surges are abnormal rises in sea level along coastal areas and are mainly formed by strong wind and atmospheric depressions. When storm surges coincide with high tide, coastal flooding can occur. Creating storm surge prediction systems has been an important and operational task worldwide. This study developed a coupled tide and storm surge numerical model of the seas around Taiwan for operational purposes at the Central Weather Bureau. The model was calibrated and verified by using tidal records from seas around Taiwan. Model skill was assessed based on measured records, and the results are presented in details. At 3-minute resolution, tides were generally well predicted, with the root mean-square errors of less than 0.11 m and an overall correlation of more than 0.9. Storms (winds and depressions) were introduced into the model forcing by using the parameter typhoon model. Five typical typhoons that threatened Taiwan were simulated for assessment. The surges were well predicted compared with the records.
基金Supported by the MISSION 908 (Nos. 908-02-03-07, SD-908-02-08)
文摘Back propagation is employed to forecast the current of a storm with various characteristics of storm surge; the technique is thus important in disaster forecasting. One of the most fuzzy types of information in the prediction of geological calamity is handled employing the information diffusion method. First, a single-step prediction model and neural network prediction model are employed to collect influential information used to predict the extreme tide level. Second, information is obtained using the information diffusion method, which improves the precision of risk recognition when there is insufficient information. Experiments demonstrate that the method proposed in this paper is simple and effective and provides better forecast results than other methods. Future work will focus on a more precise forecast model.