Green Roof Performance for Stormwater Management in Equatorial Urban Areas Using Storm Water Management Model (SWMM)

Many Low Impact Developments (LIDs) have recently been developed as a sustainable integrated strategy for managing the quantity and quality of stormwater and surrounding amenities. Previous research showed that green roof is one of the most promising LIDs for slowing down rainwater, controlling rainwater volume, and enhancing rainwater quality by filtering and leaching contaminants from the substrate. However, there is no guideline for green roof design in Malaysia. Hence, Investigating the viability of using green roofs to manage stormwater and address flash flood hazards is urgently necessary. This study used the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) to evaluate the effectiveness of green roof in managing stormwater and improving rainwater quality. The selected study area is the multistory car park (MSCP) rooftop at Swinburne University of Technology Sarawak Campus. Nine green roof models with different configurations were created. Results revealed that the optimum design of a green roof is 100 mm of berm height, 150 mm of soil thickness, and 50 mm of drainage mat thickness. With the ability to reduce runoff generation by 26.73%, reduce TSS by 89.75%, TP by 93.07%, TN by 93.16%, and improved BOD by 81.33%. However, pH values dropped as low as 5.933 and became more acidic due to the substrates in green roof. These findings demonstrated that green roofs improve water quality, able to temporarily store excess rainfall and it is very promising and sustainable tool in managing stormwater.

Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclones and Storms over the Southwestern Indian Ocean Region Using the Generalized Linear Models

Tropical cyclones (TCs) and storms (TSs) are among the devastating events in the world and southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) in particular. The seasonal forecasting TCs and TSs for December to March (DJFM) and November to May (NM) over SWIO were conducted. Dynamic parameters including vertical wind shear, mean zonal steering wind and vorticity at 850 mb were derived from NOAA (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis 1 wind fields. Thermodynamic parameters including monthly and daily mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and equatorial Standard Oscillation Index (SOI) were used. Three types of Poison regression models (i.e. dynamic, thermodynamic and combined models) were developed and validated using the Leave One Out Cross Validation (LOOCV). Moreover, 2 × 2 square matrix contingency tables for model verification were used. The results revealed that, the observed and cross validated DJFM and NM TCs and TSs strongly correlated with each other (p ≤ 0.02) for all model types, with correlations (r) ranging from 0.62 - 0.86 for TCs and 0.52 - 0.87 for TSs, indicating great association between these variables. Assessment of the model skill for all model types of DJFM and NM TCs and TSs frequency revealed high skill scores ranging from 38% - 70% for TCs and 26% - 72% for TSs frequency, respectively. Moreover, results indicated that the dynamic and combined models had higher skill scores than the thermodynamic models. The DJFM and NM selected predictors explained the TCs and TSs variability by the range of 0.45 - 0.65 and 0.37 - 0.66, respectively. However, verification analysis revealed that all models were adequate for predicting the seasonal TCs and TSs, with high bias values ranging from 0.85 - 0.94. Conclusively, the study calls for more studies in TCs and TSs frequency and strengths for enhancing the performance of the March to May (MAM) and December to October (OND) seasonal rainfalls in the East African (EA) and Tanzania in particular.

Mathematical modeling of tornadoes and squall storms

Recent advances in modeling of tornadoes and twisters consist of significant achievements in mathematical calculation of occurrence and evolution of a violent F5-class tornado on the Fujita scale, and four-dimensional mathematical modeling of a tornado with the fourth coordinate time multiplied by its characteristic velocity. Such a tornado can arise in a thunderstorm supercell filled with turbulent whirlwinds. A theory of the squall storms is proposed. The squall storm is modeled by running pertur- bation of the temperature inversion on the lower boundary of cloudiness. This perturbation is induced by the action of strong, hurricane winds in the upper and middle troposphere, and looks like a running solitary wave （soliton）; which is developed also in a field of pressure and velocity of a wind. If a soliton of a squall storm gets into the thunderstorm supercell then this soliton is captured by supercell. It leads to additional pressure fall of air inside a storm supercell and stimulate amplification of wind velocity here. As a result, a cyclostrophic balance inside a storm supercell generates a tornado. Comparison of the radial distribution of wind velocity inside a tornado calculated by using the new formulas and equations with radar observations of the wind velocity inside Texas Tornado Dummit in 1995 and inside the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City Tornado shows good correspondence.

Simulation of a Persistent Snow Storm over Southern China with a Regional Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Model

A regional atmosphere-ocean coupled model, RegCM3-POM, was developed by coupling the regional climate model （RegCM3） with the Princeton Ocean Model （POM）. The performance of RegCM3-POM in simulating a persistent snow storm over southern China and the impact of the Madden Julian oscillation （MJO） on this persistent snow storm were investigated. Compared with the stand-alone RegCM3, the coupled model performed better at reproducing the spatial-temporal evolution and intensity of the precipitation episodes. The power spectral analysis indicated that the coupled model successfully captured the dominant period between 30 and 60 days in the precipitation field, leading to a notable improvement in simulating the magnitude of intraseasonal precipitation variation, and further in enhancing the intensity of the simulated precipitation. These improvements were mainly due to the well-simulated low-frequency oscillation center and its eastward propagation characteristics in each MJO phase by RegCM3-POM, which improved the simulations of MJO-related low-frequency vertical motions, water vapor transport, and the deep inversion layer that can directly influence the precipitation event and that further improved the simulated MJOprecipitation relationship. Analysis of the phase relationship between convection and SST indicated that RegCM3-POM exhibits a near-quadrature relation between the simulated convection and SST anomalies, which was consistent with the observations. However, such a near-quadrature relation was not as significant when the stand-alone RegCM3 was used. This difference indicated that the inherent coupled feedback process between the ocean and atmosphere in RegCM3-POM played an important part in reproducing the features of the MJO that accompanied the snow storm.

Discharge Water Quality Models of Storm Runoff in a Catchment

The relationships between the water qualities of nitrogen and phosphorous contents in the discharge water and the discharge of storm runoff of an experimental catchment including terraced paddy field are analyzed based on experiment results of the catchment. By summarizing the currently related research on water quality models, the water quality models of different components of storm runoff of the catchment are presented and verified with the experiment data of water quality analyses and the corresponding discharge of the storm runoffs during 3 storms. Through estimating the specific discharge of storm runoff, the specific load of different components of nitrogen and phosphorus in the discharge water of the catchment can be forecasted by the models. It is found that the mathematical methods of linear regression are very useful for analysis of the relationship between the concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus and the water discharge of storm runoff. It is also found that the most content of the nitrogen (75%) in the discharge water is organic, while half of the content (49%) of phosphorus in the discharge water is inorganic.

Derivation of Parametric Tropical Cyclone Models for Storm Surge Modeling

In this paper, the parametric tropical cyclone models for storm surge modeling are further developed. Instead of tangential wind speed via cyclostrophic balance and radial wind speed using a simple formulation of defection angle, the analyrical expressions of tangential and radial wind speed distribution are derived from the governing momentum equations based on the general symmetric pressure distribution of Holland and Fujita. The radius of the maximum wind is estimated by tropical cyclone wind structure which is characterized by the radial extent of special wind speed. The shape parameter in the pressure model is estimated by the data of several tropical cyclones that occurred in the East China Sea. Finally, the Fred cyclone （typhoon 199417） is calculated, and comparisons of the measured and calculated air pressures and wind speed are presented.

Numerical simulations and comparative analysis for two types of storm surges in the Bohai Sea using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model

The Bohai Sea is extremely susceptible to storm surges induced by extratropical storms and tropical cyclones in nearly every season. In order to relieve the impacts of storm surge disasters on structures and human lives in coastal regions, it is very important to understand the occurring of the severe storm surges. The previous research is mostly restricted to a single type of storm surge caused by extratropical storm or tropical cyclone. In present paper, a coupled atmosphere-ocean model is developed to study the storm surges induced by two types of extreme weather conditions. Two special cases happened in the Bohai Sea are simulated successively. The wind intensity and minimum sea-level pressure derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model agree well with the observed data. The computed time series of water level obtained from the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) also are in good agreement with the tide gauge observations. The structures of the wind fields and average currents for two types of storm surges are analyzed and compared. The results of coupled model are compared with those from the uncoupled model. The case studies indicate that the wind field and structure of the ocean surface current have great differences between extratropical storm surge and typhoon storm surge. The magnitude of storm surge in the Bohai Sea is shown mainly determined by the ocean surface driving force, but greatly affected by the coastal geometry and bathymetry.

A numerical storm surge forecast model with Kalman filter

Kalman filter data assimilation technique is incorporated into a standard two-dimensional linear storm surge model. Imperfect model equation and imperfect meteorological forcimg are accounted for by adding noise terms to the momentum equations. The deterministic model output is corrected by using the available tidal gauge station data. The stationary Kalman filter algorithm for the model domain is calculated by an iterative procedure using specified information on the inaccuracies in the momentum e- quations and specified error information for the observations. An application to a real storm surge that occurred in the summer of 1956 in the East China Sea is performed by means of this data assimilation technique. The result shows that Kalman filter is useful for storm surge forecast and hindcast.

Rainfall-runoff modeling for storm events in a coastal forest catchmen t using neural networks

The process of transformation of rainfall into runoff over a catchment is very complex and highly nonlinear and exhibits both tempor al and spatial variabilities. In this article, a rainfall-runoff model using th e artificial neural networks (ANN) is proposed for simula ting the runoff in storm events. The study uses the data from a coa stal forest catchment located in Seto Inland Sea, Japan. This article studies the accuracy of the short-term rainfall forecast obta ined by ANN time-series analysis techniques and using antecedent rainfa ll depths and stream flow as the input information. The verification results from the proposed model indicate that the approach of ANN rai nfall-runoff model presented in this paper shows a reasonable agreement in rainfall-runoff modeling with high accuracy.

Two parametric tropical cyclone models for storm surge modeling

In this paper,the two parametric tropical cyclone models for storm surge modeling are further developed.The analytical expressions of tangential and radial velocity distribution are derived from the governing momentum equations,based on the general symmetric pressure distribution proposed by Holland and Fujita.On the basis of the data of several tropical cyclones that occurred in East China Ocean,the shape parameter in pressure model is estimated.Finally,the Fred cyclone(typhoon 199417)is calculated,and comparisons of measured and calculated air pressures and wind speed are presented.

Development and Application of An Operational Tide and Storm Surge Prediction Model for the Seas around Taiwan

Storm surges are abnormal rises in sea level along coastal areas and are mainly formed by strong wind and atmospheric depressions. When storm surges coincide with high tide, coastal flooding can occur. Creating storm surge prediction systems has been an important and operational task worldwide. This study developed a coupled tide and storm surge numerical model of the seas around Taiwan for operational purposes at the Central Weather Bureau. The model was calibrated and verified by using tidal records from seas around Taiwan. Model skill was assessed based on measured records, and the results are presented in details. At 3-minute resolution, tides were generally well predicted, with the root mean-square errors of less than 0.11 m and an overall correlation of more than 0.9. Storms （winds and depressions） were introduced into the model forcing by using the parameter typhoon model. Five typical typhoons that threatened Taiwan were simulated for assessment. The surges were well predicted compared with the records.

Storm surge disaster evaluation model based on an artificial neural network

Back propagation is employed to forecast the current of a storm with various characteristics of storm surge; the technique is thus important in disaster forecasting. One of the most fuzzy types of information in the prediction of geological calamity is handled employing the information diffusion method. First, a single-step prediction model and neural network prediction model are employed to collect influential information used to predict the extreme tide level. Second, information is obtained using the information diffusion method, which improves the precision of risk recognition when there is insufficient information. Experiments demonstrate that the method proposed in this paper is simple and effective and provides better forecast results than other methods. Future work will focus on a more precise forecast model.

面向防洪“四预”的数字孪生流域水利专业模型研发与实践应用--以数字孪生飞云江流域为例

数字孪生流域是推动智慧水利建设的核心和关键,而水利专业模型是数字孪生流域建设的重要算法支撑。从实际业务支撑角度研发面向防洪“四预”的数字孪生流域水利专业模型,包括水文、水动力、水工程调度、风暴潮等模型,并以浙江省温州市的数字孪生飞云江流域为载体进行实践应用。结果显示,在应对台风“杜苏芮”“卡努”“鸿雁”过程中,各类模型运行情况良好,水文、水动力及风暴潮模型预报值与实测值拟合程度较高,误差满足规范许可要求,水工程调度模型可实现模型预期调度效果。研发的水利专业模型和应用案例可为其他流域数字孪生建设提供参考。

电离层暴时经验模型STORM在中国区域的适应性研究

利用中国区域内9个垂测站1976—1987年一个太阳活动周期的电离层暴时f_0F_2数据,统计分析了电离层暴事件的等级,以及不同等级的电离层暴随季节和地磁纬度的分布特征.研究发现,中小型电离层暴在春秋季发生的概率较大,不同季节的发生次数与地磁纬度具有明显的关系.利用STORM模型对电离层暴时f_0F_2和大型及特大型电离层暴时f_0F_2的预测值与月中值进行了比较.结果表明,除了冬季误差增大外,发生电离层暴时STORM模型能够有效地改善月中值模型.增加中国的暴时数据,并提高对冬季的暴时参数f_0F_2的预测是改善STORM模型的重要因素.建立合适的暴时指数来预测f_0F_2是未来研究的重点.

川中地区北部下寒武统沧浪铺组一段风暴岩特征及沉积地质意义

川中地区北部下寒武统沧浪铺组风暴岩发育,但对该风暴岩沉积以及该区早寒武世沉积环境、古地理和沉积古地貌的研究较为薄弱。通过详细岩心观察及镜下薄片鉴定,研究了沧浪铺组风暴沉积序列和沉积模式,并揭示其地质意义。研究区沧浪铺组发育砾屑层、粒序段、平行层理和丘状交错层理等风暴沉积构造,可划分出5个风暴沉积序列,即:序列Ⅰ由砾屑段(A)、平行层理段(C)和丘状交错层理段(D)组成,在正常浪基面之上沉积;序列Ⅱ由平行层理段(C)、丘状交错层理段(D)和水平层理泥岩段(E)组成,位于风暴浪基面附近;序列Ⅲ由底冲刷面和砾屑段(A)和粒序段(B)构成,于正常浪基面和风暴浪基面之间;序列Ⅳ由粒序段(B)和平行层理段(C)组成,距离风暴中心远,沉积环境更靠近风暴浪基面附近;序列Ⅴ由底冲刷面和砾屑段(A)构成,位于平均海平面与正常浪基面之间且靠近正常浪基面。川中地区北部风暴岩的发现证实,沧浪铺组一段为陆棚—斜坡—台地边缘沉积,指示上扬子板块在沧浪铺组沉积期处于低纬度地区,这为岩相古地理恢复提供了约束;同时风暴作用形成连片分布的颗粒滩,有效提升储集相带的规模,有助于对颗粒滩相带的分布进行预测。

混合沉积特征精细刻画:以江苏徐州寒武系馒头组为例

江苏徐州地区寒武系馒头组发育极具特色的陆源碎屑组分与碳酸盐组分混合沉积现象。本研究以寒武系馒头组一套典型的混合沉积序列为例,依据剖面实测与镜下特征,对该序列中的混合沉积组合类型开展了系统的岩石学研究;通过分析不同沉积环境中的混合沉积特征,建立了陆表海近岸背景下陆源碎屑组分与碳酸盐组分混合沉积模式,探讨了各种混合沉积组合类型的混积成因类型、混积过程及主控因素等。结果表明:徐州地区寒武系馒头组混合沉积序列中主要发育含砂鲕粒灰岩、含内碎屑砂质灰岩、灰质细砂岩、含灰粉砂岩等11种混合沉积组合类型;混合沉积序列整体为陆表海海侵背景下次级海平面频繁波动且伴随多期次风暴作用的产物,主要表现为海侵作用下由近岸的混积潮坪逐渐演化为混积局限台地;混合沉积主要为相混合与间断混合,局部发育原地混合与母源混合。气候、陆源输入程度、海平面变化、碳酸盐产率是形成相混合的主控因素,同时也受到生物活动、水动力条件的调控;多期次风暴作用在主导间断混合形成的同时,一定程度上会促进相混合与母源混合的发育;在各因素叠加影响下,研究区具有多种混积成因类型组合发育的特征。厘清各种混积成因类型的分布与混积过程可为华北板块寒武纪古环境恢复与沉积演化提供参考,并为“深时”陆表海台地混合沉积相关研究提供典型范例。

台风风暴潮与上游洪水耦合作用下温州飞云江感潮河段潮水位模拟研究

在全球气候急剧变化的背景下,沿海地区风暴潮发生的频率与受灾程度逐渐增加,特别是受风暴潮与上游流域洪水共同影响下的河口感潮河段区域。尽管现有风暴潮模型也引入多种不同的边界设置,但提供的边界条件有限,且无法满足当前国内复杂水工程的概化需求。为此,文章以飞云江流域为研究对象,通过耦合上游流域水动力模型IFMS与海洋风暴潮模型ADCIRC模式,充分发挥二者各自的优势,构建河口感潮河段洪水演进模型,实现飞云江感潮河段潮水位时空模拟。该模型不仅有效地考虑了河口海洋处风暴潮上溯对感潮河段区域洪水演进的影响,也考虑了流域上游洪水对该区域的影响。首先,采用2016年台风“鲇鱼”对模型进行验证,模拟结果与实测系列吻合度较高,误差满足基本要求。然后,对台风“杜苏芮”和“卡奴”影响下的瑞安、马屿、碧山六桥及洞头4个潮位站的洪水过程进行模拟,结果显示4个站点的洪峰误差值均低于0.30m,纳什系数大于0.80,表明该模型能较好地反映高低潮位变化,可应用于河口感潮河段防灾减灾中。最后,还分析了上、下游边界的驱动作用对感潮河段3个站点(瑞安、马屿、碧山六桥)潮水位预测的影响,证明了下边界对3个站点的潮水位预报影响比上边界的影响大。研究成果不仅为河口感潮河段洪水模拟提供了一种新方法,而且通过分析给出提升模型模拟精度的方向。

基于SWMM与LISFLOOD-FP耦合模型的城市街区内涝模拟研究

为了评估高度城市化建设背景下暴雨侵袭时城市街区内涝灾害的演变过程,以北京市海淀区清河流域某典型排水分区为研究对象,构建了基于SWMM与LISFLOOD-FP模型的水文水动力耦合模型。选择P20210712、P20210718和P202108233场实测降雨率定和验证模型参数,并应用于P20210703实测降雨的预测,同时选取降雨重现期分别为10、20、30、50 a的长历时(24 h)设计降雨情景进行内涝模拟分析。结果表明:3场实测降雨条件下模型的纳什效率系数分别为0.76、0.68、0.71,模型参数设置合理;P20210703实测降雨条件下,模型模拟所得淹没范围、淹没水深与实际观测情况较为吻合,耦合模型精度较高;4种不同降雨重现期的长历时设计降雨情景下,溢流节点数和溢流总量均随降雨重现期的增大而增加,淹没深度大于1.00 m的淹没面积从降雨重现期为10 a的0.024 km^(2),增大到降雨重现期为50 a的0.345 km^(2),主要集中在上地下凹桥区、安宁庄西路、安宁庄中街、安宁庄路等位置,与观测情况吻合较好。

台风过境期间辽河口滨海湿地水动力特征的数值模拟研究

本研究基于FVCOM环流模型,耦合ECMWF背景风场和Jelesnianski台风经验模型形成合成风场,对9711台风“温妮”过境辽河口区域的水动力进行模拟研究。模型通过在动量方程、湍流方程中加入附加源项来表达盐沼植被对水动力的阻碍作用。使用研究区域实测的潮位、流速、流向等数据对水动力模型进行验证,模拟结果与实测数据吻合较好。结果表明:潮滩盐沼植被对台风过境期间的潮位变化无明显影响,但对流速具有显著的衰减作用,且芦苇对潮流的衰减作用大于盐地碱蓬植被,芦苇区的速度最大衰减率达81.43%。此外,台风路径变化对辽河口湿地海域的增减水及流速影响较大,台风强度越强,局部区域造成的风暴潮增水和流速也相应越大。

杭州湾及舟山海域可能最大台风风暴潮增水的数值研究

基于有限体积海洋模型(FVCOM)构建了一个覆盖中国渤海、黄海和东海的高分辨率风暴潮模型,模拟了1509号台风“灿鸿”引发的风暴潮事件,风暴潮水位模拟结果与实测数据吻合良好。基于最佳台风路径集数据集提供的风场和气压数据,建立了中国近海台风最大风速和最低中心气压的线性回归联系,相关系数达到0.96。在此基础上,以可能最大热带气旋参数为基础,构造了多种假想台风路径,计算了杭州湾和舟山海域的可能最大风暴潮增水。结果表明,沿垂直于海岸线方向登陆的台风在杭州湾和舟山海域引起的风暴潮增水极值最高。杭州湾湾顶可能最大风暴潮水位达8.76 m,舟山海域可能最大风暴潮水位达2.62 m。结果可为杭州湾和舟山海域海洋工程的风险评估和防灾减灾提供参考。