For earthquakes(ML≥2.0) that occurred from January 2006 to October 2018 around the Ms5.7 Xingwen earthquake occurred on 16 December 2018 in Xingwen,Sichuan province,China,we statistically investigated the correlation...For earthquakes(ML≥2.0) that occurred from January 2006 to October 2018 around the Ms5.7 Xingwen earthquake occurred on 16 December 2018 in Xingwen,Sichuan province,China,we statistically investigated the correlation between the phase of Earth's rotation and the occurrence of earthquakes via Schuster's test to determine the signals that triggered earthquakes before the Ms5.7 Xingwen event.The results were evaluated based on the P-value where a smaller P-value corresponded to a higher correlation between the occurrence of an earthquake and Earth's rotation.We investigated the spatial distribution of Pvalues in the region around the epicenter of the Ms5.7 Xingwen event,and obtained a result exhibiting a extremely low-P-value region.The松5.7 event occurred inside near the northern boundary of this region.Furthermore,we analyzed the temporal evolution of P-values for earthquakes that occurred within the extremely low-P-value region and found that some extremely low P-values(less that 0.1%),i.e.,significant correlation,were calculated for earthquakes that occurred before the胚5.7 Xingwen earthquake.Among sixty・one earthquakes with the lowest P-value,occurred from May 2014 to April 2018,a vast majority of them occurred during the acceleration of Earth's rotation.The lower P-value obtained in this study reveals that the Xingwen source body probably was extremely unstable prior to the occurrence of the Ms5.7 Xingwen earthquake.展开更多
1研究背景地震是地球内部运动的一种力学过程,其动力来源于地球内部。但当震源区处于临界状态时,外界因素如固体潮等的影响在一定条件下可能会引起系统的突变而发生地震(Cochran et al,2004;Tanaka et al,2004;Cadicheanu et al,2007;Ta...1研究背景地震是地球内部运动的一种力学过程,其动力来源于地球内部。但当震源区处于临界状态时,外界因素如固体潮等的影响在一定条件下可能会引起系统的突变而发生地震(Cochran et al,2004;Tanaka et al,2004;Cadicheanu et al,2007;Tanaka,2010)。针对潮汐触发地震的问题,国内外学者做了大量研究工作,主要集中在以下3个方面:一是对部分地区地震活动和月相的相关关系研究,结果显示,地震在某些月相附近发生的几率相对较高;二是基于潮汐应力分量的地震调制研究,通常是将潮汐应力分解为南北、东西、垂直3个方向,其中水平分量与地震的关系往往被作为研究的重点;三是利用一定的统计方法分析潮汐相位角,通过严格定量的大样本检验,其中Schuster检验应用较多,通过p值变化来反映潮汐与地震的关系。展开更多
Research of tidal triggering of earthquakes in recent years is systematically reviewed,focusing on the relationship between the phases of the moon and seismic activity,earthquakes triggered by tidal forces and its com...Research of tidal triggering of earthquakes in recent years is systematically reviewed,focusing on the relationship between the phases of the moon and seismic activity,earthquakes triggered by tidal forces and its components,based on the large sample statistics to discuss the tidal triggering of an earthquake.The relationship between the phase of the moon and seismic activity is a preliminary study of tidal triggering of earthquakes,and the modulation ratio is a quantitative description of it.Using the resolution of tidal stress to study seismic activity is a way to reveal the relationship between the tides and earthquakes from the mechanics point of view.Large sample statistics is another way to study the relationship between the tidal and earthquake from the view of statistics.In many statistical methods,Schuster's test is used more widely,which takes many factors into account,such as focal mechanism,tidal stress,and statistical tests to quantitatively analyze the tidal triggering effect on earthquakes.展开更多
A statistical analysis on the Wenchuan aftershock activity triggered by tidal forces is systematically studied based on Schusters test, including earthquakes triggered by tidal force, tidal stress and tidal coulomb ...A statistical analysis on the Wenchuan aftershock activity triggered by tidal forces is systematically studied based on Schusters test, including earthquakes triggered by tidal force, tidal stress and tidal coulomb failure stress. The results show that a group of strong aftershocks which occurred at the end of July to early August in 2008 at the north of Wenchuan were obviously triggered by earth tide, the same conclusion is drawn by Schusters smooth test of the tidal force, tidal stress and tidal coulomb failure stress. In addition, the Wenchuan aftershock activity is obviously triggered by fortnight tide. In the north, the aftershocks happened more frequently in the first and last quarters of the moon, and in the south, the aftershocks happened more frequently in the first and last quarters of the moon and during the full moon.展开更多
A statistical analysis is done to study the spatio-temporal features of earthquake activity in the Tianshan seismic belt triggered by tide,based on Schusters test. The data we choose is the M L≥2. 0 earthquakes fro...A statistical analysis is done to study the spatio-temporal features of earthquake activity in the Tianshan seismic belt triggered by tide,based on Schusters test. The data we choose is the M L≥2. 0 earthquakes from January 1,2010 to August 31,2012 in eastern Tianshan,and the calculation is on tidal body stress. The results show that the p-value based on the time window smoothing of Schusters test corresponds better with the strong earthquakes in the Tianshan seismic belt,especially for a long time before the November 1,2011 Nilka M S6. 0 earthquake,when the p-value of the Schusters test was always lower than the threshold of 0. 05 for tidal trigger of earthquake,but after the Nilka M S6. 0 earthquake,that value was quickly restored to a high level,which reflects a close relationship between the Nilka M S6. 0 earthquake and the Earth tide. According to the p-value based on the spatial window smoothing of Schusters test,the Nilka M S6. 0 earthquake was at or near the tidal triggering area. Thus we can see from the spatio-temporal results that the Nilka M S6. 0 earthquake was obviously triggered by Earth tide.展开更多
A statistical analysis on earthquake activity in the Kashi-Wuqia intersection area triggered by earth tide is done by Schusters test and the Permutation test on daily and monthly scales. The north-south,east-west co...A statistical analysis on earthquake activity in the Kashi-Wuqia intersection area triggered by earth tide is done by Schusters test and the Permutation test on daily and monthly scales. The north-south,east-west component of the tidal force and tidal body stress are chosen as the tidal curve in the daily scale. The results show that most of the earthquakes occurred near the maximum 0° of the three kinds of tidal curves,the predominant tidal phases of the earthquake are- 5. 86°,6. 60° and- 15. 52°,and the frequency of the earthquakes increases with the increase of the tide; with three kinds of tidal curves( the north-south,east-west component of the tidal force and tidal body stress),the p S of Schusters test for all the earthquakes is 10. 52%,2. 40% and 2. 06%,and the p P of the Permutation test is 10. 90%,2. 40% and 2. 06%,and the results of p S and p P based on the east-west component of the tidal force and tidal body stress are below the threshold of 0. 05 that tidal triggering of earthquakes. In the monthly scale,both the p S and p P are very low( close to 0),far below the threshold of 0. 05 of tidal triggering of earthquakes,and the predominant tidal phase for earthquake triggering is- 18. 95°,close to the maximum 0°( new moon and full moon) of the earth tide in monthly scale. Regarding the statistical test result of tidal triggering of earthquakes,a preliminary explanation is given as to why the trigger effect in the east-west direction is greater than that in north-south direction.展开更多
基金supported by National Key R&D Program of China (No. 2018YFC1503405)
文摘For earthquakes(ML≥2.0) that occurred from January 2006 to October 2018 around the Ms5.7 Xingwen earthquake occurred on 16 December 2018 in Xingwen,Sichuan province,China,we statistically investigated the correlation between the phase of Earth's rotation and the occurrence of earthquakes via Schuster's test to determine the signals that triggered earthquakes before the Ms5.7 Xingwen event.The results were evaluated based on the P-value where a smaller P-value corresponded to a higher correlation between the occurrence of an earthquake and Earth's rotation.We investigated the spatial distribution of Pvalues in the region around the epicenter of the Ms5.7 Xingwen event,and obtained a result exhibiting a extremely low-P-value region.The松5.7 event occurred inside near the northern boundary of this region.Furthermore,we analyzed the temporal evolution of P-values for earthquakes that occurred within the extremely low-P-value region and found that some extremely low P-values(less that 0.1%),i.e.,significant correlation,were calculated for earthquakes that occurred before the胚5.7 Xingwen earthquake.Among sixty・one earthquakes with the lowest P-value,occurred from May 2014 to April 2018,a vast majority of them occurred during the acceleration of Earth's rotation.The lower P-value obtained in this study reveals that the Xingwen source body probably was extremely unstable prior to the occurrence of the Ms5.7 Xingwen earthquake.
文摘1研究背景地震是地球内部运动的一种力学过程,其动力来源于地球内部。但当震源区处于临界状态时,外界因素如固体潮等的影响在一定条件下可能会引起系统的突变而发生地震(Cochran et al,2004;Tanaka et al,2004;Cadicheanu et al,2007;Tanaka,2010)。针对潮汐触发地震的问题,国内外学者做了大量研究工作,主要集中在以下3个方面:一是对部分地区地震活动和月相的相关关系研究,结果显示,地震在某些月相附近发生的几率相对较高;二是基于潮汐应力分量的地震调制研究,通常是将潮汐应力分解为南北、东西、垂直3个方向,其中水平分量与地震的关系往往被作为研究的重点;三是利用一定的统计方法分析潮汐相位角,通过严格定量的大样本检验,其中Schuster检验应用较多,通过p值变化来反映潮汐与地震的关系。
基金the National Science&Technology Pillar Program,China(2008BAC38B03)
文摘Research of tidal triggering of earthquakes in recent years is systematically reviewed,focusing on the relationship between the phases of the moon and seismic activity,earthquakes triggered by tidal forces and its components,based on the large sample statistics to discuss the tidal triggering of an earthquake.The relationship between the phase of the moon and seismic activity is a preliminary study of tidal triggering of earthquakes,and the modulation ratio is a quantitative description of it.Using the resolution of tidal stress to study seismic activity is a way to reveal the relationship between the tides and earthquakes from the mechanics point of view.Large sample statistics is another way to study the relationship between the tidal and earthquake from the view of statistics.In many statistical methods,Schuster's test is used more widely,which takes many factors into account,such as focal mechanism,tidal stress,and statistical tests to quantitatively analyze the tidal triggering effect on earthquakes.
基金sponsored by the National Key Technology R&D Program,China(2008BAC38B03)
文摘A statistical analysis on the Wenchuan aftershock activity triggered by tidal forces is systematically studied based on Schusters test, including earthquakes triggered by tidal force, tidal stress and tidal coulomb failure stress. The results show that a group of strong aftershocks which occurred at the end of July to early August in 2008 at the north of Wenchuan were obviously triggered by earth tide, the same conclusion is drawn by Schusters smooth test of the tidal force, tidal stress and tidal coulomb failure stress. In addition, the Wenchuan aftershock activity is obviously triggered by fortnight tide. In the north, the aftershocks happened more frequently in the first and last quarters of the moon, and in the south, the aftershocks happened more frequently in the first and last quarters of the moon and during the full moon.
基金jointly sponsored by the Earthquake Situation Tracking Task of China Earthquake Administration(2013020119)the Earthquake Science Foundation of the Youth of Earthquake Administration of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China(201304)
文摘A statistical analysis is done to study the spatio-temporal features of earthquake activity in the Tianshan seismic belt triggered by tide,based on Schusters test. The data we choose is the M L≥2. 0 earthquakes from January 1,2010 to August 31,2012 in eastern Tianshan,and the calculation is on tidal body stress. The results show that the p-value based on the time window smoothing of Schusters test corresponds better with the strong earthquakes in the Tianshan seismic belt,especially for a long time before the November 1,2011 Nilka M S6. 0 earthquake,when the p-value of the Schusters test was always lower than the threshold of 0. 05 for tidal trigger of earthquake,but after the Nilka M S6. 0 earthquake,that value was quickly restored to a high level,which reflects a close relationship between the Nilka M S6. 0 earthquake and the Earth tide. According to the p-value based on the spatial window smoothing of Schusters test,the Nilka M S6. 0 earthquake was at or near the tidal triggering area. Thus we can see from the spatio-temporal results that the Nilka M S6. 0 earthquake was obviously triggered by Earth tide.
基金sponsored by the Earthquake Situation Tracking Task of 2013(2013020119)the Fund of Earthquake Administration of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China(201304)
文摘A statistical analysis on earthquake activity in the Kashi-Wuqia intersection area triggered by earth tide is done by Schusters test and the Permutation test on daily and monthly scales. The north-south,east-west component of the tidal force and tidal body stress are chosen as the tidal curve in the daily scale. The results show that most of the earthquakes occurred near the maximum 0° of the three kinds of tidal curves,the predominant tidal phases of the earthquake are- 5. 86°,6. 60° and- 15. 52°,and the frequency of the earthquakes increases with the increase of the tide; with three kinds of tidal curves( the north-south,east-west component of the tidal force and tidal body stress),the p S of Schusters test for all the earthquakes is 10. 52%,2. 40% and 2. 06%,and the p P of the Permutation test is 10. 90%,2. 40% and 2. 06%,and the results of p S and p P based on the east-west component of the tidal force and tidal body stress are below the threshold of 0. 05 that tidal triggering of earthquakes. In the monthly scale,both the p S and p P are very low( close to 0),far below the threshold of 0. 05 of tidal triggering of earthquakes,and the predominant tidal phase for earthquake triggering is- 18. 95°,close to the maximum 0°( new moon and full moon) of the earth tide in monthly scale. Regarding the statistical test result of tidal triggering of earthquakes,a preliminary explanation is given as to why the trigger effect in the east-west direction is greater than that in north-south direction.
