Modeling the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Local Context for a Contextualized Diffusion of Agroecological Intensification Options in Niger

Spatio-temporal variability and dynamics in Sahelian agro-pastoral zones make each local situation a special case. These specificities must be considered to guide the dissemination of agricultural options with a view to sustainable development. The territorial scale of municipalities is not sufficient for this necessary contextualization;the scale of the “village terroir” seems to be a better option. This is the hypothesis we put forward in the framework of the Global Collaboration for Resilient Food Systems program (CRFS), i.e. local context is spatially defined by village terroir. The study is based on data collected through participatory mapping and surveys in “village terroirs” in three regions of Niger (Maradi, Dosso and Tillabéri). Then the links between farm managers and their cultivated land, as well as the spatio-temporal dynamics of local context are analyzed. This study provides evidence of the existence and functional usefulness of the village terroir for farmers, their land management and their activities. It demonstrates the usefulness of contextualizing agricultural options at this scale. Their analysis elucidates the links between “terroirs village” and the specific functioning of the agrosocio-ecosystems acting on each of them, thus laying the systemic and geographical foundations for a model of the spatio- temporal dynamics of “village terroirs”. This initial work has opened up new perspectives in modeling and sustainable development.

弹性退休制度下谁更愿意延迟退休?——基于Option Value模型的微观模拟

人口老龄化背景下延迟退休年龄、建立弹性退休制度是大势所趋。养老金激励是弹性退休制度的重要内容。建立期权价值模型和养老金给付及奖惩因子模型,基于中国家庭收入调查项目(CHIP2018)的数据,对不同特征人群的养老金峰值、期权价值、内部报酬率进行模拟。研究发现:养老金总财富随退休年龄“先增后减”,男性的峰值年龄早于女性;引入养老金“奖惩”机制有助于提高最优退休年龄,激励劳动者延迟退休;考虑闲暇偏好的异质性,男性参保者更倾向于早退休,而女性参保者特别是女性较高收入群体更愿意延迟退休;厌恶风险的参保者更有可能选择早退休。建议尽早建立弹性退休年龄政策体系,增加劳动者的选择权和制度灵活性;引入精算调节因子构建养老金奖惩机制,完善养老保险待遇计发办法。

Technological Options to Ameliorate Waste Treatment of Intensive Pig Production in China:An Analysis Based on Bio-Economic Model

Ameliorating waste treatment by technological improvements affects the economic and the ecological-environment benefits of intensive pig production. The objective of the research was to develop and test a method to determine the technical optimization to ameliorate waste treatment methods and gain insight into the relationship between technological options and the economic and ecological effects. We developed an integrated bio-economic model which incorporates the farming production and waste disposal systems to simulate the impact of technological improvements in pig manure treatment on economic and environmental benefits for the case of a pilot farm in Beijing, China. Based on different waste treatment technology options, three scenarios are applied for the simulation analysis of the model. The simulation results reveal that the economic-environmental benefits of the livestock farm could be improved by reducing the cropland manure application and increasing the composting production with the current technologies. Nevertheless, the technical efficiency, the waste treatment capacity and the economic benefits could be further improved by the introduction of new technologies. It implies that technological and economic support policies should be implemented comprehensively on waste disposal and resource utilization to promote sustainable development in intensive livestock production in China.

Critical Exercise Price for American Floating Strike Lookback Option in a Mixed Jump-Diffusion Model

This paper studies the critical exercise price of American floating strike lookback options under the mixed jump-diffusion model. By using It formula and Wick-It-Skorohod integral, a new market pricing model established under the environment of mixed jumpdiffusion fractional Brownian motion. The fundamental solutions of stochastic parabolic partial differential equations are estimated under the condition of Merton assumptions. The explicit integral representation of early exercise premium and the critical exercise price are also given, then the American floating strike lookback options factorization formula is obtained, the results is generalized the classical Black-Scholes market pricing model.

FUNCTIONAL ANALYSIS METHOD FOR THE M/G/1 QUEUEING MODEL WITH OPTIONAL SECOND SERVICE

By studying the spectral properties of the underlying operator corresponding to the M/G/1 queueing model with optional second service we obtain that the time-dependent solution of the model strongly converges to its steady-state solution. We also show that the time-dependent queueing size at the departure point converges to the corresponding steady-state queueing size at the departure point.

Investment in deepwater oil and gas exploration projects:a multi-factor analysis with a real options model

Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engi- neering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.

PRICING CATASTROPHE OPTIONS WITH COUNTERPARTY CREDIT RISK IN A REDUCED FORM MODEL

In this paper, we study the price of catastrophe Options with counterparty credit risk in a reduced form model. We assume that the loss process is generated by a doubly stochastic Poisson process, the share price process is modeled through a jump-diffusion process which is correlated to the loss process, the interest rate process and the default intensity process are modeled through the Vasicek model： We derive the closed form formulae for pricing catastrophe options in a reduced form model. Furthermore, we make some numerical analysis on the explicit formulae.

Pricing Stochastic Barrier Options under Hull-White Interest Rate Model

A barrier option valuation model with stochastic barrier which was regarded as the main feature of the model was developed under the Hull-White interest rate model.The purpose of this study was to deal with the stochastic barrier by means of partial differential equation methods and then derive the exact analytical solutions of the barrier options.Furthermore,a numerical example was given to show how to apply this model to pricing one structured product in realistic market.Therefore,this model can provide new insight for future research on structured products involving barrier options.

Evaluating Sensitivity to Different Options and Parameterizations of a Coupled Air Quality Modelling System over Bogotá, Colombia. Part I: WRF Model Configuration

Meteorological inputs are of great importance when implementing an air quality prediction system. In this contribution, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model was used to compare the performance of the different cumulus, microphysics and Planet Boundary Layer parameterizations over Bogotá, Colombia. Surface observations were used for comparison and the evaluated meteorological variables include temperature, wind speed and direction and relative humidity. Differences between parameterizations were observed in meteorological variables and Betts-Miller-Janjic, Morrison 2-moment and BouLac schemes proved to be the best parameterizations for cumulus, microphysics and PBL, respectively. As a complement to this study, a WRF-Large Eddy Simulation was conducted in order to evaluate model results with finer horizontal resolution for air quality purposes.

NEW METHOD TO OPTION PRICING FOR THE GENERAL BLACK-SCHOLES MODEL-AN ACTUARIAL APPROACH

Using physical probability measure of price process and the principle of fair premium, the results of Mogens Bladt and Hina Hviid Rydberg are generalized. In two cases of paying intermediate divisends and no intermediate dividends, the Black_Scholes model is generalized to the case where the risk_less asset (bond or bank account) earns a time_dependent interest rate and risk asset (stock) has time_dependent the continuously compounding expected rate of return, volatility. In these cases the accurate pricing formula and put_call parity of European option are obtained. The general approach of option pricing is given for the general Black_Scholes of the risk asset (stock) has the continuously compounding expected rate of return, volatility. The accurate pricing formula and put_call parity of European option on a stock whose price process is driven by general Ornstein_Uhlenback (O_U) process are given by actuarial approach.

Pricing VIX options in a 3/2 plus jumps model

This paper proposes and makes a study of a new model(called the 3/2 plus jumps model) for VIX option pricing. The model allows the mean-reversion speed and volatility of volatility to be highly sensitive to the actual level of VIX. In particular, the positive volatility skew is addressed by the 3/2 plus jumps model. Daily calibration is used to prove that the proposed model preserves its validity and reliability for both in-sample and out-of-sample tests.The results show that the models are capable of fitting the market price while generating positive volatility skew.

A Full Asymptotic Series of European Call Option Prices in the SABR Model with Beta = 1

We develop two new pricing formulae for European options. The purpose of these formulae is to better understand the impact of each term of the model, as well as improve the speed of the calculations. We consider the SABR model (with β=1) of stochastic volatility, which we analyze by tools from Malliavin Calculus. We follow the approach of Alòs et al. (2006) who showed that under stochastic volatility framework, the option prices can be written as the sum of the classic Hull-White (1987) term and a correction due to correlation. We derive the Hull-White term, by using the conditional density of the average volatility, and write it as a two-dimensional integral. For the correction part, we use two different approaches. Both approaches rely on the pairing of the exponential formula developed by Jin, Peng, and Schellhorn (2016) with analytical calculations. The first approach, which we call “Dyson series on the return’s idiosyncratic noise” yields a complete series expansion but necessitates the calculation of a 7-dimensional integral. Two of these dimensions come from the use of Yor’s (1992) formula for the joint density of a Brownian motion and the time-integral of geometric Brownian motion. The second approach, which we call “Dyson series on the common noise” necessitates the calculation of only a one-dimensional integral, but the formula is more complex. This research consisted of both analytical derivations and numerical calculations. The latter show that our formulae are in general more exact, yet more time-consuming to calculate, than the first order expansion of Hagan et al. (2002).

Option Pricing and Hedging under a Markov Switching Lévy Process Model

In this paper, we consider a Markov switching Lévy process model in which the underlying risky assets are driven by the stochastic exponential of Markov switching Lévy process and then apply the model to option pricing and hedging. In this model, the market interest rate, the volatility of the underlying risky assets and the N-state compensator,depend on unobservable states of the economy which are modeled by a continuous-time Hidden Markov process. We use the MEMM(minimal entropy martingale measure) as the equivalent martingale measure. The option price using this model is obtained by the Fourier transform method. We obtain a closed-form solution for the hedge ratio by applying the local risk minimizing hedging.

Numerical Methods for Discrete Double Barrier Option Pricing Based on Merton Jump Diffusion Model

As a kind of weak-path dependent options, barrier options are an important kind of exotic options. Because the pricing formula for pricing barrier options with discrete observations cannot avoid computing a high dimensional integral, numerical calculation is time-consuming. In the current studies, some scholars just obtained theoretical derivation, or gave some simulation calculations. Others impose underlying assets on some strong assumptions, for example, a lot of calculations are based on the Black-Scholes model. This thesis considers Merton jump diffusion model as the basic model to derive the pricing formula of discrete double barrier option;numerical calculation method is used to approximate the continuous convolution by calculating discrete convolution. Then we compare the results of theoretical calculation with simulation results by Monte Carlo method, to verify their efficiency and accuracy. By comparing the results of degeneration constant parameter model with the results of previous models we verified the calculation method is correct indirectly. Compared with the Monte Carlo simulation method, the numerical results are stable. Even if we assume the simulation results are accurate, the time consumed by the numerical method to achieve the same accuracy is much less than the Monte Carlo simulation method.

The SABR Model: Explicit Formulae of the Moments of the Forward Prices/Rates Variable and Series Expansions of the Transition Probability Density and of the Option Prices

The SABR stochastic volatility model with β-volatility β ? (0,1) and an absorbing barrier in zero imposed to the forward prices/rates stochastic process is studied. The presence of (possibly) nonzero correlation between the stochastic differentials that appear on the right hand side of the model equations is considered. A series expansion of the transition probability density function of the model in powers of the correlation coefficient of these stochastic differentials is presented. Explicit formulae for the first three terms of this expansion are derived. These formulae are integrals of known integrands. The zero-th order term of the expansion is a new integral formula containing only elementary functions of the transition probability density function of the SABR model when the correlation coefficient is zero. The expansion is deduced from the final value problem for the backward Kolmogorov equation satisfied by the transition probability density function. Each term of the expansion is defined as the solution of a final value problem for a partial differential equation. The integral formulae that give the solutions of these final value problems are based on the Hankel and on the Kontorovich-Lebedev transforms. From the series expansion of the probability density function we deduce the corresponding expansions of the European call and put option prices. Moreover we deduce closed form formulae for the moments of the forward prices/rates variable. The moment formulae obtained do not involve integrals or series expansions and are expressed using only elementary functions. The option pricing formulae are used to study synthetic and real data. In particular we study a time series (of real data) of futures prices of the EUR/USD currency's exchange rate and of the corresponding option prices. The website: http://www.econ.univpm.it/recchioni/finance/w18 contains material including animations, an interactive application and an app that helps the understanding of the paper. A more general reference to the work of the authors and of their coauthors in mathematical finance is the website:http://www.econ.univpm.it/recchioni/finance.

An ETD Method for American Options under the Heston Model

A numerical method for American options pricing on assets under the Heston stochastic volatility model is developed.A preliminary transformation is applied to remove the mixed derivative term avoiding known numerical drawbacks and reducing computational costs.Free boundary is treated by the penalty method.Transformed nonlinear partial differential equation is solved numerically by using the method of lines.For full discretization the exponential time differencing method is used.Numerical analysis establishes the stability and positivity of the proposed method.The numerical convergence behaviour and effectiveness are investigated in extensive numerical experiments.

Fast Fourier Transform Approximation of Foreign Currency Option Pricing Based on Exponential Lévy Model

To study the approximation of foreign currency option prices when the underlying assets＇ price dynamics are described by exponential Lévy processes, the convolution representations for option pricing formulas were given, and then the fast Fourier transform （FFT） algorithm was used to get the approximate values of option prices. Finally, a numerical example was given to demonstrate the calculate steps to the option price by FFT.

Early exercise premium method for pricing American options under the J-model

Background:This study develops a new model called J-am for pricing American options and for determining the related early exercise boundary(EEB).This model is based on a closed-form solution J-formula for pricing European options,defined in the study by Jerbi(Quantitative Finance,15:2041-2052,2015).The J-am pricing formula is a solution of the Black&Scholes(BS)PDE with an additional function called f as a second member and with limit conditions adapted to the American option context.The aforesaid function f represents the cash flows resulting from an early exercise of the option.Methods:This study develops the theoretical formulas of the early exercise premium value related to three American option pricing models called J-am,BS-am,and Heston-am models.These three models are based on the J-formula by Jerbi(Quantitative Finance,15:2041-2052,2015),BS model,and Heston(Rev Financ Stud,6:327-343,1993)model,respectively.This study performs a general algorithm leading to the EEB and to the American option price for the three models.Results:After implementing the algorithms,we compare the three aforesaid models in terms of pricing and the EEB curve.In particular,we examine the equivalence between J-am and Heston-am as an extension of the equivalence studied by Jerbi(Quantitative Finance,15:2041-2052,2015).This equivalence is interesting since it can reduce a bi-dimensional model to an equivalent uni-dimensional model.Conclusions:We deduce that our model J-am exactly fits the Heston-am one for certain parameters values to be optimized and that all the theoretical results conform with the empirical studies.The required CPU time to compute the solution is significantly less in the case of the J-am model compared with to the Heston-am model.

Trinomial tree model of the real options approach used in mining investment price forecast and analysis

In order to effectively avoid the defects of a traditional discounted cash flow method, a trinomial tree pricing model of the real option is improved and used to forecast the investment price of mining. Taking Molybdenum ore as an example, a theoretical model for the hurdle price under the optimal investment timing is constructed. Based on the example data, the op- tion price model is simulated. By the model, mine investment price can be computed and forecast effectively. According to the characteristics of mine investment, cut-off grade, reserve estimation and mine life in different price also can be quantified. The result shows that it is reliable and practical to enhance the accuracy for mining investment decision.

Pricing Bermudan Option with Variable Transaction Costs under the Information-Based Model

The Bermudan option pricing problem with variable transaction costs is considered for a risky asset whose price process is derived under the information-based model. The price is formulated as the value function of an optimal stopping problem, which is the value function of a stochastic control problem given by a non-linear second order partial differential equation. The theory of viscosity solutions is applied to solve the stochastic control problem such that the value function is also the solution of the corresponding Bellman equation. Under some regularity assumptions, the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the pricing equation are derived by the application of the Perron method and Banach Fixed Point theorem.