Terrestrial Temperature, Sea Levels and Ice Area Links with Solar Activity and Solar Orbital Motion

This paper explores the links between terrestrial temperature, sea levels and ice areas in both hemispheres with solar activity indices expressed through averaged sunspot numbers together with the summary curve of eigenvectors of the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) and with changes of Sun-Earth distances caused by solar inertial motion resulting from the gravitation of large planets in the solar system. Using the wavelet analysis of the GLB and HadCRUTS datasets two periods: 21.4 and 36 years in GLB, set and the period of about 19.6 years in the HadCRUTS are discovered. The 21.4-year period is associated with variations in solar activity defined by the summary curve of the largest eigenvectors of the SBMF. A dominant 21.4-year period is also reported in the variations of the sea level, which is linked with the period of 21.4 years detected in the GLB temperature and the summary curve of the SBMF variations. The wavelet analysis of ice and snow areas shows that in the Southern hemisphere, it does not show any links to solar activity periods while in the Northern hemisphere, the ice area reveals a period of 10.7 years equal to a usual solar activity cycle. The TSI in March-August of every year is found to grow with every year following closely the temperature curve, because the Sun moves closer to the Earth orbit owing to gravitation of large planets (solar inertial motion, SIM), while the variations of solar radiation during a whole year have more steady distribution without a sharp TSI increase during the last two centuries. The additional TSI contribution caused by SIM is likely to secure the additional energy input and exchange between the ocean and atmosphere.

Prediction of China's Submerged Coastal Areas by Sea Level Rise due to Climate Change

Based on the simulation with the Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model CCSM and Ocean Model POP under the greenhouse gas emission scenario of the IPCC SRES A2(IPCC,2001),and on the earth crust subsidence and glacier melting data,the relative sea level change is obtained along the coast of China in the 21st century.Using the SRTM elevation data the submergence of coastal low land is calculated under the extreme water level with a 100-year return period.The total flooding areas are 98.3×103and 104.9×103km2for 2050 and 2080,respectively.For the three regions most vulnerable to extreme sea level rise,i.e.,the coast of Bohai Bay,the Yangtze River Delta together with neighboring Jiangsu Province and northern Zhejiang Province,and the Pearl River Delta,the flooded areas are 5.0×103,64.1×103and 15.3×103km2in 2050 and 5.2×103,67.8×103and 17.2×103km2in 2080,respectively.

Adaptation strategy for sea level rise in vulnerable areasalong China's coast

It can be seen from the calculation that the vulnerable area along China's coast in which the elevation is less than 5 m, is 143 900 km2, accounting for about 11. 3% of the total area of the 11 coastal provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. These areas are threatened to varying extent by sea level rise. According to prediction, the relative sea level rise (including global sea level rise caused by climate change and local relative as level rise caused by vertical crust movement and ground subsidence) along China's coast will be 4～16 cm by the year 2030 with the optimum estimated value of 6～14cm. It will be 9～26 cm by the year 2050 with the optimum estimated value of 12-23 cm. And it will be 31-74 cm by the year 2100 with the optimum estimated value of 47～65 cm. The calcuation result shows that the percentage of the cost for up-grading (heightening and consolidating) sea dykes/walls in adaptation strategy in the losses of submerged areas varies from area to area: 6. 9% in the Zhujiang (Pearl) River Deta, 1. 3% ～24. 6% in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River Delta, and 0. 9%～2. 0% in the Huanghe River Delta.

RELATIVE SEA LEVEL RISE AND ITS EFFECTS ON ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES IN CHINAS COASTAL AREAS

Due to global climate warming and natural and man-made land subsidence etc., relative sea level rise in the coastal plains of China will exceed 2-3 times over the golbal mean value during the first half part of the 21st century. It will result in a series of adverse impacts on evolution of natural environment and socioeconomic development of the coastal area. This paper analyses environmental and resource effects induced by relative sea level rise in China's coastal areas on the basis of rough estimate of future relative sea level rise. These effects include inundating tidal flat and wetlands and increase in inundated risk of coastal habitable land,exacerbating storm surge. coastal erosion, flooding and salt water intrusion hazards.as well as endangering land. water. tourism and living resources and their utilization.

Modern sea level changes of the Eastern China Seas and their influences on coastal areas

The statistics of tidal gauging records showed that the mean sea level of the China Seas has risen for 14 cm in past 100 years. The annual mean sea levels of the Eastern China Seas have been rising at a speed of about 0.21 -0.23 cm/a since 1960. The annual mean sea levels of the Eastern China Seas in 1989 were 1.45 cm higher than that in 1988 on average.The sea level rise may cause the damage of the dynamical balance of the natural environments in the coastal area? and form or strengthen many coastal disasters, such as storm-tide catastrophic events, sea water invasion landward, soil salinization in coastal lowland and plains, and beach erosion retreat.

Characteristics and possible causes of sea level anomalies in the Xisha sea area

Based on the analysis of wind,ocean currents,sea surface temperature（SST） and remote sensing satellite altimeter data,the characteristics and possible causes of sea level anomalies in the Xisha sea area are investigated.The main results are shown as follows：（1） Since 1993,the sea level in the Xisha sea area was obviously higher than normal in 1998,2001,2008,2010 and 2013.Especially,the sea level in 1998 and 2010 was abnormally high,and the sea level in 2010 was 13.2 cm higher than the muti-year mean,which was the highest in the history.In 2010,the sea level in the Xisha sea area had risen 43 cm from June to August,with the strength twice the annual variation range.（2） The sea level in the Xisha sea area was not only affected by the tidal force of the celestial bodies,but also closely related to the quasi 2 a periodic oscillation of tropical western Pacific monsoon and ENSO events.（3）There was a significant negative correlation between sea level in the Xisha sea area and ENSO events.The high sea level anomaly all happened during the developing phase of La Ni-a.They also show significant negative correlations with Ni-o 4 and Ni-o 3.4 indices,and the lag correlation coefficients for 2 months and 3 months are–0.46 and –0.45,respectively.（4） During the early La Ni-a event form June to November in 2010,the anomalous wind field was cyclonic.A strong clockwise vortex was formed for the current in 25 m layer in the Xisha sea area,and the velocity of the current is close to the speed of the Kuroshio near the Luzon Strait.In normal years,there is a “cool eddy”.While in 2010,from July to August,the SST in the area was 2–3°C higher than that of the same period in the history.

Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the Coastal Areas to the West of the Bohai Bay

Based on the assumption of global sea level rising between 30 and 100 cm in the future 100 years by IPCC (1990) in addition to the effect of local ground subsidence, the coastline will retrograde for 50-70 km whose altitudes will be 2.6-3 .3m above MSL of Huanghai Sea in the western coastal area of the Bohai bay in 2100. The transgrassive area is about 10,000-11 ,500 km. If the effect of set-up of storm surge is considered, the transgressive area will reach 16,000 km. Sea level rise which is a serious coastal disaster not only inundates a lot of coastal lowland, but also increases the frequency and intensity of storm tides, and results in the salinization of soils. In vies of this situation we recommend a trinity comprehensive measure of treatment, namely, "building seawall to prevent tides-diverting the Hunaghe River to settle its sediment loads -raising the constructional base".

The Land Subsidence and Relative Sea Level Rise in Chinese Delta Areas

Based on some experts’ research effort, the problems of land subsidence and relative sea level rise in three Chinese delta areas (Huanghe, Changjiang and Zhujiang Delta) are analyzed and discussed in this paper. The authors’ opinion is that the land subsidence is mainly induced by human activity and has made the greater contributions to the relative sea level rise and become one of the geological hazards in these areas. In Tianjin and Shanghai areas where had ever existed serious land subsidence problem, due to the positive and effective control methods, the ratio of man-induced land subsidence to relative sea level rise decreased from 80%-90% in 1960s-1970s to less than 60% at present. But it is estimated that in the next tens of years this ratio will still be considerable. So human being must keep its eyes on this phenomenon and take more positive countermeasures to control the land subsidence.

ENSO Index Variations and Links with Solar and Volcanic Activity

In this paper, we investigated the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), for simplicity called in this paper an El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index in 1950-2023 by applying the wavelet spectral transform and the IBM SPSS correlations analysis. ONI follows the three months’ current measurements of the average temperature of the sea surface in the East-Central tropical part of the Pacific Ocean nearby the international line of the date change over the average sea surface temperature over the past 30 years. The ENSO index is found to have a strong (>87%) correlation with the Global Land-Ocean Temperature (GLOT). The scatter plots of the ENSO-GLOT correlation with the linear and cubic fits have shown that the ENSO index is better fit by the cubic polynomial increasing proportionally to a cubic power of the GLOT variations. The wavelet analysis allowed us to detect the two key periods in the ENSO (ONI) index: 4 - 5 years and 12 years. The smaller period of 4.5 years can be linked to the motion of tectonic plates while the larger period of 12 years is shown to have a noticeable correlation of 25% with frequencies of the underwater (submarine) volcanic eruptions in the areas with ENSO occurrences. Not withholding any local terrestrial factors considered to contribute to the ENSO occurrences, we investigated the possibility of the volcanic eruptions causing ENSO to be also induced by the tidal forces of Jupiter and Sun showing the correlation of the underwater volcanic eruption frequency with the Jupiter-Earth distances to be 12% and with the Sun-Earth distances, induced by the solar inertial motion, in January, when the Earth is turned to the Sun with the southern hemisphere where the ENSO occurs, to become 15%. Hence, the underwater volcanic eruptions induced by tidal forces of Jupiter and Sun can be the essential additional factors imposing this 12 year period of the ENSO (ONI) index variations.

A Review of Assessment and Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change Impacts on the Coastal Areas in South China

This paper reviews assessment of climate change impacts on economy,society and ecological environment in the coastal areas of South China based on published literatures;it also proposes suitable adaptation strategies and countermeasures.Review shows that climate change has resulted in sea level rise in the coastal areas of South China,increasing the occurrence and intensity of storm surges,aggravating the influence of saltwater intrusion,coastal erosion,urban drainage and flood control,threatening the coastal facility and infrastructures,inundating lowland areas,ofsetting mudflat silting,and degrading mangroves and coral reef ecosystem.Therefore,in order to reduce the adverse efects of climate change and to support the sustainable development in the coastal areas of South China,it is critical to improve the monitoring and early warning system,enhance prevention criteria,fortify coastal protection engineering,strengthen salt tide prevention,and reinforce the ecological restoration and protection.

Paleoecology of Early Ordovician Reefs in the Yichang Area,Hubei:a Correlation of Organic Reefs Between Early Ordovician and Jurassic

The Early Ordovician System is composed mainly of a series of carbonate platform deposits interbedded with shale and is especially characterized by a large number of organic reefs or buildups that occur widely in the research area.The reefs have different thicknesses ranging from 0.5 m to 11.5 m and lengths varying from 1 m to 130 m.The reef-building organisms include Archaeoscyphia, Recepthaculitids,Batostoma,Cyanobacteria and Pulchrilamina.Through the research of characteristics of the reef-bearing strata of the Early Ordovician in the Yichang area,four sorts of biofacies are recognized,which are(1) shelly biofacies:containing Tritoechia-Pelmatozans community and Tritoechia-Pomatotrema community;(2) reef biofacies:including the Batostoma,Calathium-Archaeoscyphia, Pelmatozoa-Batostoma,Archeoscyphia and Calathium-Cyanobacteria communities; (3) standing-water biofacies:including the Acanthograptus-Dendrogptus and Yichangopora communities;and(4) allochthonous biofacies:containing Nanorthis-Psilocephlina taphocoense community.The analysis of sea-level changes indicates that there are four cycles of sea-level changes during the period when reef-bearing strata were formed in this area,and the development of reefs is obviously controlled by the velocity of sea-level changes and the growth of accommodation space.The authors hold that reefs were mostly formed in the high sea level periods.Because of the development of several subordinate cycles during the sea-level rising,the reefs are characterized by great quantity, wide distribution,thin thickness and small scale,which are similar to that of Juassic reefs in northern Tibet.The research on the evolution of communities shows that succession and replacement are the main forms.The former is favorable to the development of reefs and the latter indicates the disappearance of reefs.

COMPARISON OF THE STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS OF DEVELOPED VERSUS UNDEVELOPED MID-LEVEL VORTEXES

Using the NCEP 1°×1°reanalysis data,several obvious differences of the structural characteristics of developed versus undeveloped mid-level vortexes are studied.First,the central vorticity of the developed mid-level vortex increases towards higher levels while the undeveloped one decreases.The low-level convergence structure maintains well in the developed mid-level vortex whereas the undeveloped one does badly.Second,on the one hand,according to the symmetric analysis,the horizontal wind field and wind vertical section of the developed mid-level vortex are well symmetric while those of the undeveloped one are less symmetric.Meanwhile,weak wind vertical shear help the developed mid-level vortex to establish a warm core in upper-and mid-levels of the troposphere.On the other hand,according to the balance analysis,better balance between wind and pressure is shown in the mid-and lower-levels of the troposphere of the developed mid-level vortex than in those of the undeveloped vortex.Third,positive anomaly of potential vorticity is enhanced and developed in the vertical direction of the developed vortex.However,the undeveloped vortex weakens with a weak positive anomaly.

气候变暖背景下中国沿海降水变化特征

IPCC第六次评估报告指出,随着全球变暖,强降水事件通常会变得更加频繁和强烈。暴雨是我国主要气象灾害之一,是引发洪涝的最主要原因。目前洪涝灾害已成为影响滨海城市公共安全和经济社会发展的重要因素,了解降水的变化特征对于科学应对气候变化和防灾减灾具有重要意义。本文研究结果显示,1966-2020年中国沿海降水量和暴雨及以上级别降水日数(日降水量≥50 mm的日数)总体均呈增多趋势,但变化趋势不显著;降水日数(日降水量≥0.1 mm的日数)总体呈减少趋势,且变化趋势显著。降水量和暴雨及以上级别降水日数在长江口至福建北部沿海和海南沿海增加趋势明显,山东省及以北沿海、广东省东部沿海呈减少趋势;降水日数除在长江口附近呈增多趋势外,其他沿海地区均以减少为主。降水日数总体减少,降水量总体增多,表明降水过程中降水强度有增加趋势。中国沿海总体暴雨及以上级别强降水主要集中在5-9月,出现频率占全年81.7%。多地出现最大日降水量超过250 mm情况,局部最大日降水量超过500 mm。强降水过程期间往往伴随高海平面,影响滨海城市行洪排涝,增加淹没风险。

重庆石柱-彭水地区下寒武统石龙洞组沉积特征

基于野外剖面观察、实测以及室内薄片鉴定和地球化学测试分析资料,对重庆石柱石流村至彭水板凳沟地区下寒武统石龙洞组的岩性特征、沉积相类型及其演化进行了研究。研究结果显示:石龙洞组主要为一套浅水碳酸盐岩沉积,在垂向上自下而上有3个由白云岩-石灰岩构成的岩性组合,自西向东岩性由白云岩为主逐渐变化为以石灰岩为主。研究区沉积期古地貌、古盐度及海平面相对升降变化等共同控制了碳酸盐岩差异发育,整体处于海相环境,以贫氧-缺氧为主。西北区水体深度相对较浅,其周缘发育条带状台缘滩阻碍了海水的正常循环,为局限台地环境,古盐度较高,在干热气候条件下,有利于白云岩的发育。东南区更为临近广海,水体深度相对较大,水体循环受到的影响相对较小,水体古盐度正常,整体处于开阔台地环境,因此以石灰岩为主,白云岩不发育。

联合CTD、海底地形和ARGO数据构建北太平洋深海时变温度模型

面对深海温度实测数据不足的现实,本文依据CTD温度剖面随海深变化特性对北太平洋海域重新划分区域,联合海底地形和Argo数据构建了2005—2020年北太平洋深海月均格网化温度模型,并反演了其深海比容海平面变化。试验结果表明:(1)本文构建的深海温度剖面均值数学模型相较于其他数学模型与CTD实测数据的差异小1~2个数量级,更能准确地反映各区域深海温度剖面随海深变化特性;(2)本文构建的深海温度模型与CTD实测数据、EN4的差异最大不超过0.20℃和0.60℃,平均差异不超过0.03℃和0.50℃,标准差不超过0.06℃和0.002℃;(3)基于该温度模型和EN4计算得到的北太平洋深海比容海平面变化趋势基本一致,其中2005—2010年上升趋势分别为0.52±0.09和0.73±0.11 mm/a,2010—2020年上升趋势分别为0.02±0.03和-0.01±0.01 mm/a,与相关文献基于热含量变化研究结论一致,整个研究时间段内上升趋势分别为0.11±0.17和0.09±0.11 mm/a。这说明本文构建的深海温度模型数据具有一定的可靠性,对于细化区域海平面平衡方程成因变化具有一定的参考价值。

珠江三角洲海平面上升的影响范围

研究讨论珠江三角洲 2 0 30年海平面上升 30cm的影响范围。对 54个站 7种典型年最高洪潮水位的升幅进行了水文学或水力学计算。结果表明 ,按 5cm和 2 5cm升幅等值线的分布 ,可分出影响很小区、较大区、最大区。影响范围随多种条件而发生动态变化。影响最明显的是枯水、特大风暴潮、口门延伸的典型年 ,其最高洪潮水位升幅的代表值 ,在影响很小区、较大区、最大区分别为 <5cm、2 4cm。

南海北部陆缘早侏罗世海平面变化的古盐度记录

早侏罗世南海北部陆缘粤东地区发生大规模海侵。古盐度的变化记录了海平面的变化。反映古盐度变化的Sr/Ba和B/Ga比值与海平面升降有关,前者为正相关,后者为负相关。本区m曲线(m=MgO/Al2O3×100)与B/Ga曲线相似,但在幅度方面有差异。结合沉积充填序列、沉积环境、沉积相演变,确定了本区海平面变化经历了两次海侵和一次海退。早侏罗世南海北部陆缘构造背景相对活动,前陆再旋回造山带或前陆隆起成为物源区,海丰地区具有周缘前陆盆地的性质。古盐度记录揭示的海平面变化可能受古特堤斯闭合的影响。

海平面上升对我国沿海地区的影响及其适应对策

近30年来,我国沿海海平面平均上升速率为2.6 mm/a,高于全球均值,未来上升趋势还将持续。海平面上升已经并将持续造成海水淹没范围扩大、加剧海洋灾害威胁、破坏典型生态系统健康,对沿海地区经济社会可持续发展提出了重大挑战,这包括海洋灾害造成巨大经济损失、海平面上升加大沿海地区的气候脆弱性和未来面临多因素叠加的风险。此外,海平面上升对我国国土安全造成的威胁不容忽视。为此,建议急需从国家战略层面统筹规划,全面做好海平面上升的适应工作,尤其是解决好沿海经济社会发展中面临的三个问题,即"海平面上升与沿海经济发展的关系问题"、"海平面上升与维护海洋权益的关系问题"以及"海平面上升与近岸生态环境保护的关系问题",在相关政策法规与管理机制、规划评估与研究、标准规范与工程建设、监测预警能力建设等方面持续推进提高并加以完善。这既是我国应对气候变化的紧迫任务之一,也是实现我国沿海地区经济社会持续平稳较快发展的重要保障。

塔里木盆地巴楚地区石炭系高频旋回层序分析

高频旋回层序是海平面高频振荡的结果和产物。通过对塔里木盆地巴楚地区石炭系地面、钻井剖面的详细解析，首次总结出７个高频旋回层序类型，识别出５０余个五级（或六级）高频旋回层序，它们在纵向上有规律地组合、叠加，组成８个四级旋回层序，３个三级旋回层序及２个二级旋回层序，构成了塔里木盆地巴楚地区石炭系的层序地层格架，同时也反映了该区石炭纪海平面的变化规律及其沉积响应。

中国锰矿成矿规律初探

中国锰矿资源较丰富,资源量排名在世界上位列第5。中国锰矿种类多样,有海相沉积型、火山-沉积型、碳酸盐岩中热水沉积型(或"层控"型)、与岩浆作用有关的热液型、受变质型及表生型。其中,海相沉积型占资源量的71.4%,表生型占15.7%,是最主要的两种类型。中国锰矿广泛分布于"泛扬子区"、华北陆块的燕辽地区以及天山和祁连山部分地区,尤以"泛扬子区"为最,并具分布广泛又相对集中的总体特征。中国的成锰时代多,中—新元古代、早古生代(寒武纪、奥陶纪)、晚古生代—早中生代是中国锰矿形成的重要时代。中国锰矿时-空分布的主要特征是"北锰南迁":中元古代锰矿主要产于华北陆块的燕辽裂谷带,新元古代—古生代锰矿主要产于"泛扬子区"的大陆边缘盆地或台内盆地中。大型、超大型锰矿床或锰矿田的形成,受控于非构造期盆地性质、古海洋结构、古海水性质及海平面升降等因素,其形成环境存在一定的相似性及同源性。