Relation between sea surface temperature anomaly in the Atlantic and summer precipitation over the Northeast China

Based on global monthly average data set of sea surface temperature (SST) during 1950 - 1992 and global monthly average 500 hPa height during 1930- 1997 offered by NCARINCEP, the feature of SST anomaly in the Atlantic and its relation with summer precipitation over the Northeast China are analyzed. The results show that, the second eigenvector of the SST’s empirical orthogonal expanssion in winter season over the North Atlantic suggests that dist-ibution of SST anomaly has unusual meridional difference; The location of its center is basically identical to center of significant correlation region be- tween summer precipitation over the Northeast China and winter SST in the Atlantic. When winter SST in the North Atlantic is hot in south and cold in north, the blocking situation is stronger in the middle- high latitude. Correspondingly, the blocking high pressure in the northern North Pacific is also getting stronger, the westerlies circulation index in East Asia in next summer would be lower,as a result,more precipitation in the summer would be experienced over Northeast China and vice versa.

The Role of the Solar Cycle in the Relationship Between the North Atlantic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperatures

The North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） is one of the leading modes of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere. It has been shown that it clearly relates to changes in meteorological variables, such as surface temperature, at hemispherical scales. However, recent studies have revealed that the NAO spatial pattern also depends upon solar forcing. Therefore, its effects on meteorological variables must vary depending upon this factor. Moreover, it could be that the Sun affects climate through variability patterns, a hypothesis that is the focus of this study. We find that the relationship between the NAO/AO and hemispheric temperature varies depending upon solar activity. The results show a positive significant correlation only when solar activity is high. Also, the results support the idea that solar activity influences tropospheric climate fluctuations in the Northern Hemisphere via the fluctuations of the stratospheric polar vortex .

Sea surface temperature anomaly in the tropical North Atlantic during El Nino decaying years

Based on reanalysis data from 1979 to 2016,this study focuses on the sea surface temperature(SST)anomaly of the tropical North Atlantic(TNA)in El Nino decaying years.The TNA SST exhibits a clear warm trend during this period.The composite result for 10 El Nino events shows that the TNA SST anomaly reaches its maximum in spring after the peak of an El Nino event and persists until summer.In general,the anomaly is associated with three factors-namely,El Nino,the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),and a long-term trend,leading to an increase in local SST up to 0.4℃,0.3℃,and 0.35℃,respectively.A comparison between 1983 and 2005 indicates that the TNA SST in spring is affected by El Niño,as well as the local SST in the preceding winter,which may involve a long-term trend signal.In addition,the lead-lag correlation shows that the NAO leads the TNA SST by 2-3 months.By comparing two years with an opposite phase of the NAO in winter(i.e.,1992 and 2010),the authors further demonstrate that the NAO is another important factor in regulating the TNA SST anomaly.A negative phase of the NAO in winter will reinforce the El Nino forcing substantially,and vise versa.In other words,the TNA SST anomaly in the decaying years is more evident if the NAO is negative with El Nino.Therefore,the combined effects of El Nino and the NAO must be considered in order to fully understand the TNA SST variability along with a long-term trend.

The PNA wavetrain and the sea surface temperature in the Northern Pacific

In this paper, the response of the atmospheric 3-5 year cycle to Northern Pacific SST is discussed, The results are as follows:1. From the simultaneous temporal correlations between the Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST, the westerly dirft area's SST and the Northern Pacific SST at all gridpoints, we find that there are three correlative regions in the Northern Pacific SST field, they are the westerly drift area, the Equatorial Eastern Pacific and the Alaska Bay , and their structures are very similar to the PNA pattern in the atmosphere The difference PTI between the Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST anomaly and the westerly drift area's SST anomaly can indicate the change of the PNA pattern of the Northern Pacific SST anomaly. It can represent SST change of 65 % areas over the Northern Pacific and can keep watch on El Nino and un-El Nino.2. Simultaneous temporal correlative field between PTI and filtered 500hPa (there is 3-5 year cycle only ) of the Northern Hemisphere presents clear PNA structure. The responses of the filtered 500hPa to El Nino and to un-EI Nino produce +PNA and -PNA wavetrains respectively.3. According to the different positions of the sea-surface temperature rise (drop) ,El Nino (un-EI Nino )can be divided into two classes: east-pattern and middle-pattern. The responses of the filtered 500hPa to the east-pattern and to the middle-pattern will produce PNA and EAA wavetrain respectively. This indicates that the responses of the atmosphere to the stationary heat sources in diffrent areas will produce wavetrains in diffrent track.

Relationship between the Guinea Current and the Coastal Upwelling in Northern of Gulf of Guinea

The variability of ocean circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic, especially in the Gulf of Guinea (GG), defines this region as exceptionally rich from an oceanographic perspective. The Guinea Current (GC), as the major surface current, plays a significant role in marine productivity and coastal upwelling in the GG. This coastal upwelling is known to influence the climate of the surrounding region, primary productivity and local fisheries. Studies on GC variability and its impact on this coastal upwelling have highlighted that the upwelling downstream of Cape Palmas is influenced by GC detachment, topographic variations and advective processes leading to significant vertical mixing. This study aims to analyze the interannual variability of the GC and its impact on coastal upwelling using the Coastal and Regional Ocean COmmunity model (CROCO). The model’s evaluation is conducted using observational data, specifically Geostrophic and EKman Current Observatory (GEKCO) and Ocean Surface Current Analysis (OSCAR) for currents, and Air-sea Fluxes for the global Tropic ocean-description (TROPFLUX) and Optimum Interpolation-Sea Surface Temperature (OI-SST) for temperature. Thus, the model evaluation indicates that it accurately replicates ocean circulation and SST patterns in the tropical Atlantic and the GG. The joint analysis of upwelling indices (surface and intensity) and the position of the GC core allowed us to conclude that the displacement of the GC core does indeed influence the upwelling indices in the northern part of GG. However, other oceanic and atmospheric mechanisms such as vertical diffusion and horizontal advection as proposed by previous studies may also affect the year-by-year variability of coastal upwelling in the northern GG.

Contribution of the Sea Surface Temperature over the Mediterranean-Black Sea to the Decadal Shift of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation

Recent observational study has shown that the southern center of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation （SNAO） was located farther eastward after the late 1970s compared to before. In this study, the cause for this phenomenon is explored. The result shows that the eastward shift of the SNAO southern center after the late 1970s is related to the variability of the Mediterranean-Black Sea （MBS） SST. A warm MBS SST can heat and moisten its overlying atmosphere, consequently producing a negative sea level pressure （SLP） departure over the MBS region. Because the MBS SST is negatively correlated with the SNAO, the negative SLP departure can enhance the eastern part of the negative-phase of the SNAO southern center, consequently producing an eastward SNAO southern center shift. Similarly, a cold MBS SST produces an eastward positive-phase SNAO southern center shift. The reason for why the MBS SST has an impact on the SNAO after the late 1970s but why it is not the case beforehand is also discussed. It is found that this instable relationship is likely to be attributed to the change of the variability of the MBS SST on the decadal time-scale. In 1951 1975, the variability of the MBS SST is quite weak, but in 1978 2002, it becomes more active. The active SST can enhance the interaction between the sea and its overlying atmosphere, thus strengthening the connection between the MBS SST and the SNAO after the late 1970s. The above observational analysis results are further confirmed by sensitivity experiments.

Physical Mechanism of the Impacts of the Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature on the Decadal Change of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation

In this study,physical mechanism of the impacts of the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST)on decadal change of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation(SNAO)was explored using an atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM)developed at the International Centre for Theoretical Physics(ICTP).The simulation results indicate that the decadal warming of the SST over the tropical Atlantic after the late 1970s could have significantly enhanced the convection over the region.This enhanced convection would have strengthened the local meridional circulation over the Eastern Atlantic-North Africa-Western Europe region,exciting a meridional teleconnection.This teleconnection might have brought the signal of the tropical Atlantic SST to the Extratropics,consequently activating the variability of the eastern part of the SNAO southern center,which led to an eastward shift of the SNAO southern center around the late 1970s.Such physical processes are highly consistent with the previous observations.

Impact of the Atlantic multidecadal variability on East Asian summer climate in idealized simulations

本文利用基于地球系统模式CESM1开展的北大西洋多年代际振荡理想化数值试验,研究了北大西洋多年代际振荡对东亚夏季气候的影响。结果显示,北大西洋多年代际振荡可以通过中纬度罗斯贝波以及热带开尔文波的传播两种途径影响东亚夏季气候.当北大西洋多年代际振荡处于正位相时,一方面,偏暖的北大西洋通过激发一条从北大西洋向下游传播的中纬度大气罗斯贝波列导致东亚陆地气压降低而西北太平洋气压升高,使得东亚-西北太平洋之间的海陆气压差增强;另一方面,偏暖的北大西洋激发赤道开尔文波东传,激发西北太平洋对流层低层出现反气旋式环流异常.通过以上两种途径,正位相的北大西洋多年代际振荡最终导致东亚夏季风增强,东亚地区夏季出现北湿南干和偏暖的气候。

Impact of Preceding Summer North Atlantic Oscillation on Early Autumn Precipitation over Central China

This study examined the impact of the preceding boreal summer(June–August) North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) on early autumn(September) rainfall over Central China(RCC). The results show that a significant positive correlation exists between the preceding summer NAO and the early autumn RCC on the interannual timescale. In order to understand the physical mechanism between them, the role of ocean was investigated. It was found that the strong summer NAO can induce a tripole sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) in the North Atlantic; this SSTA pattern can persist until early autumn. The diagnostic analysis showed that the tripole SSTA pattern excites a downstream Atlantic-Eurasian(AEA) teleconnection, which contributes to an increase in RCC. The circulation anomalies related to SSTA caused by the weak NAO are opposite, so the RCC is less than normal. The results imply that the preceding summer NAO may be regarded as a forecast factor for the early autumn RCC.

Increased summer electric power demand in Beijing driven by preceding spring tropical North Atlantic warming

By using electric power data,observational station temperature data in Beijing,CN05.1 temperature data,ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis data,and ERSST.v3 b sea surface temperature(SST) data,it is found that summer(JulyAugust) electric power demand in Beijing is remarkably positively correlated with the previous spring(MarchApril) tropical North Atlantic(TNA) SST anomaly(SSTA).The possible physical mechanism of the TNA SSTA affecting summer electric power in Beijing is also revealed.When a positive SSTA occurs in the TNA during spring,anomalous easterlies prevail over the tropical central Pacific,which can persist to the following summer.Trade winds are thus enhanced over the northern Pacific,which favors a strengthening of upwelling cold water in the tropical central-eastern Pacific.As a result,a negative SSTA appears in the central-eastern Pacific in summer,which means a La Nina event is triggered by the previous TNA SSTA through the Bjerknes feedback.During the La Nina event,an anomalous anticyclonic circulation occupies the northwestern Pacific.The southerly anomalies at the western edge of this anomalous anticyclone strengthen the transportation of warm and humid airflow from the low latitudes to North China,where Beijing is located,causing higher summer temperatures and increased electricity usage for air conditioning,and vice versa.The results of this study might provide a new scientific basis and dues for the seasonal prediction of summer electric power demand in Beijing.

Time-integrated North Atlantic Oscillation as a proxy for climatic change

The time-integrated yearly values of North Atlantic Oscillation (INAO) are found to be well correlated to the sea surface temperature. The results give the feasibility of using INAO as a good proxy for climate change and contribute to a more complete picture of the full range of variability inherent in the climate system. Moreover, the extrapolation in the future of the well identified 65-year harmonic in INAO suggests a gradual decline in global warming starting from 2005.

Sea surface temperature and terrestrial biomarker records of the last 260 ka of core MD05-2904 from the northern South China Sea

This paper reports high-resolution biomarker records of the last 260 ka for core MD05-2904 from the northern South China Sea (SCS). The sea surface temperature (SST) record using the U k3’7 index re-veals a minimum of 21.5℃ (MIS 2) and a maximum of 28.3℃ (MIS 5.5), for a temperature difference of almost 7℃, and provides the longest high-resolution U k3’7 SST record in northern SCS. The content of odd-number long chain n-alkanes and several n-alkanes indexes such as the CPI, ACL and the C31/C27 ratio, all reveal generally higher values during the glacials and lower values during the interglacials. Terrestrial input as indicated by n-alkane content was mostly controlled by sea-level changes: During the glacials, lower sea-level exposed the continental shelf to enable rivers to transport more terrestrial materials to the slope; and the situation reverses during the interglacials. The n-alkane indexes changes reveal more n-alkanes from contemporary vegetation during glacials as a result of the prox-imity of the core site to the source region, while the increases in ACL and C31/C27 ratio during glacials indicate a change to more grassy vegetation. However, the highest values for CPI, ACL and the C31/C27 ratio all occurred during late MIS 3, and it was suggested that this period was characterized by a strong summer monsoon-dominated humid climate which resulted in a denser vegetation for the exposed continental shelf region.

大气环流及北大西洋海温对我国南方冬季寒潮频次异常的可能影响

利用国家气象信息中心提供的1980-2022年日最低温度站点资料、NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料和NOAA逐月海表温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)资料,采用了EOF、一元线性回归和T-N波作用通量等方法,分析了南方冬季寒潮频次的主要异常时空特征及大气环流异常和冬季大西洋海温异常(Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly,SSTA)对其影响机制。结果表明:(1)冬季寒潮频次大值区主要位于南方东部及中部地区,大致呈“逆C”型分布。寒潮频次主要有全区一致型、南北反位相型和三极型三类主要异常模态,其中全区一致型能很好反映南方寒潮频次的总体异常时空特征。(2)负位相的北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation,NAO)、强的里海-青藏高原脊和偏东偏北的东亚大槽、北弱南强的西伯利亚高压、强的温带急流和弱的副热带急流是影响南方冬季寒潮频次的关键环流系统,冷空气堆位于西西伯利亚地区,高低层环流系统配合,使得冷空气自西西伯利亚南下到里海附近,再沿着青藏高原北侧向东输送,在青藏高原东侧南下进入南方地区,造成南方冬季寒潮频次全区一致型增加。(3)冬季北大西洋“+”“-”“+”三极型SSTA可通过海气间热通量交换激发出-NAO型环流异常及Rossby波能量异常。Rossby波能量沿南、北两条路径自北大西洋向东亚传播,并激发出相应的异常波列,增强了影响南方寒潮的南、北方关键环流系统,致南方寒潮频发。当春季北大西洋SSTA呈现逆“C”型异常,且夏、秋季有发展为+”“-”“+”三极型的态势,可预测南方寒潮频次偏多。

未来北极夏季陆面气温变化区域特征及其与北大西洋海面温度的关系

未来变暖背景下北极气候变化特征研究具有重要意义,基于国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6,CMIP6)中对北极气候变化模拟能力较好的模式模拟结果,研究SSP2-4.5情景下21世纪北极2 m气温的时空变化特征及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)极地陆地的欧亚大陆(Eurasia, EA)和北美-格陵兰(Greenland, GL)对全球变暖具有不同的响应。EA在21世纪中叶前变暖趋势显著,之后主要表现为年代际尺度的冷暖振荡;GL则始终保持增暖趋势。EA、GL分区气温均存在年际、年代际(10~20 a)尺度上的波动,GL分区还存在20~40 a的准周期变化。(2)前冬北大西洋涛动正位相会引起次年夏季北大西洋呈南北向“-、+、-”三极型海面温度异常,并通过影响大气环流导致EA分区气温正异常,这种影响主要体现在年代际尺度上。(3)北大西洋多年代际振荡为正异常时,北美至格陵兰位势高度偏高,GL分区增暖,并且这种影响在21世纪70年代后更重要;北太平洋北部的海面温度正异常对GL分区增温也有贡献。

近20年北大西洋中纬度海温与江南5月降水关系增强的可能原因

本文以1980—2021年江南5月降水为研究对象,利用美国国家气候预测中心(Climate Prediction Center, CPC)降水资料、美国环境预测中心(National Centers for Environment Prediction, NCEP)大气环流和Hadley中心的海表面温度资料,分析了江南5月降水极端性的变化及其与大气环流、北大西洋海温的联系。结果表明,自2004年江南5月降水年际差异显著增大以来,200 hPa上的Rossby波能量从北大西洋向下游传播,一部分能量沿副热带西风急流传播,形成南支波列;另一部分沿不列颠群岛向西伯利亚地区传播,上述两支波列在旱涝年的不同配置一方面可以通过影响江南地区高空200 hPa附近的辐合辐散影响江南地区的垂直运动;另一方面波列下游的中国东南沿海200 hPa的异常气旋或反气旋具有准正压结构,对应于对流层中下层西北太平洋异常气旋或反气旋在孟加拉湾、中南半岛和南海上空位置和强弱变化,影响水汽向江南地区的输送。在偏涝年形成正位相的欧亚遥相关波列,利于冷空气在贝加尔湖附近积累并向江南地区输送,它和低纬暖湿气流在江南地区附近相遇,形成降水。2004年以来,欧亚大陆上空与5月不列颠群岛附近海温异常有关的波列分布发生了改变,影响了江南地区高空200 hPa的辐合辐散。上述遥相关波列增强了和西北太平洋异常反气旋的关系,进一步与江南5月降水建立起紧密联系。2004年以来自江南5月偏涝年前的冬季开始,北大西洋中纬度通常出现冷海温异常并随时间东移,于5月降水同期东移到不列颠群岛附近,偏旱年反之,这对江南5月降水具有一定的预报意义。

南海北部沉积物中浮游有孔虫Globigerinoides ruber壳体氧同位素指示的冬季表层海水温度

有孔虫壳体的氧同位素值(δ18 O)是由其生长时海水δ18 O和温度决定的,在海水δ18 O已知的情况下,可以由壳体的δ18 O值估算海水温度。本文以南海北部沿岸地区9个站位的柱状沉积物中浮游有孔虫Globigerinoides ruber为研究对象,测试了其壳体的δ18 O值。分别以相应站点夏季与冬季表层海水的实测δ18 O值代入温度公式,估算了对应的夏季与冬季的海水温度值。然后把计算结果与World Ocean Atlas(WOA)数据库相应站点的海水温度数据作比较。结果表明,计算出的夏季海水温度与WOA的夏季温度有较大差别,而计算出的冬季海水温度则与WOA的冬季海水温度基本相当。这说明δ18 Oruber记录的是该区域冬季表层海水的温度,此区域内G.ruber这一属种的生产力和沉积通量在东亚冬季风盛行期间出现了最高值。

Possible Impact of the Boreal Spring Antarctic Oscillation on the North American Summer Monsoon

This study examined the relationship between the boreal spring(April?May) Antarctic Oscillation(AAO) and the North American summer monsoon(NASM)(July?September) for the period of 1979?2008.The results show that these two systems are closely related.When the spring AAO was stronger than normal,the NASM tended to be weaker,and there was less rainfall over the monsoon region.The opposite NASM situation corresponded to a weaker spring AAO.Further analysis explored the possible mechanism for the delayed impact of the boreal spring AAO on the NASM.It was found that the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST) plays an important role in the connection between the two phenomena.The variability of the boreal spring AAO can produce anomalous SSTs over the tropical Atlantic.These SST anomalies can persist from spring to summer and can influence the Bermuda High,affecting water vapor transportation to the monsoon region.Through these processes,the boreal spring AAO exerts a significantly delayed impact on the amount of NASM precipitation.Thus,information about the boreal spring AAO is valuable for the prediction of the NASM.

Influence of Low-frequency Solar Forcing on the East Asian Winter Monsoon Based on HadCM3 and Observations

In this study, we investigate the influence of low-frequency solar forcing on the East Asian winter monsoon（EAWM）by analyzing a four-member ensemble of 600-year simulations performed with Had CM3（Hadley Centre Coupled Model,version 3）. We find that the EAWM is strengthened when total solar irradiance（TSI） increases on the multidecadal time scale. The model results indicate that positive TSI anomalies can result in the weakening of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, causing negative sea surface temperature（SST） anomalies in the North Atlantic. Especially for the subtropical North Atlantic, the negative SST anomalies can excite an anomalous Rossby wave train that moves from the subtropical North Atlantic to the Greenland Sea and finally to Siberia. In this process, the positive sea-ice feedback over the Greenland Sea further enhances the Rossby wave. The wave train can reach the Siberian region, and strengthen the Siberian high. As a result, low-level East Asian winter circulation is strengthened and the surface air temperature in East Asia decreases. Overall,when solar forcing is stronger on the multidecadal time scale, the EAWM is typically stronger than normal. Finally, a similar linkage can be observed between the EAWM and solar forcing during the period 1850–1970.

Assimilating satellite SST/SSH and in-situ T/S profiles with the Localized Weighted Ensemble Kalman Filter

The Localized Weighted Ensemble Kalman Filter(LWEnKF)is a new nonlinear/non-Gaussian data assimilation(DA)method that can effectively alleviate the filter degradation problem faced by particle filtering,and it has great prospects for applications in geophysical models.In terms of operational applications,along-track sea surface height(AT-SSH),swath sea surface temperature(S-SST)and in-situ temperature and salinity(T/S)profiles are assimilated using the LWEnKF in the northern South China Sea(SCS).To adapt to the vertical S-coordinates of the Regional Ocean Modelling System(ROMS),a vertical localization radius function is designed for T/S profiles assimilation using the LWEnKF.The results show that the LWEnKF outperforms the local particle filter(LPF)due to the introduction of the Ensemble Kalman Filter(EnKF)as a proposal density;the RMSEs of SSH and SST from the LWEnKF are comparable to the EnKF,but the RMSEs of T/S profiles reduce significantly by approximately 55%for the T profile and 35%for the S profile(relative to the EnKF).As a result,the LWEnKF makes more reasonable predictions of the internal ocean temperature field.In addition,the three-dimensional structures of nonlinear mesoscale eddies are better characterized when using the LWEnKF.

Impact of tropical cyclone Matmo on mixed zone of the Yellow and Bohai Seas

The Bohai Sea is a low-lying semi-enclosed sea area that is linked to the Yellow Sea via the Bohai straits(mixed zone). Its of fshore seabed is shallow, which makes it vulnerable to serious marine meteorological disasters associated with the northward passage of Pacific tropical cyclones. Analyses on data of remote sensing and buoy of the mixed zone of the Yellow and Bohai seas indicate that all the wind speed, significant wave height, and salinity(SAL) increased, sea surface temperature decreased, and wind energy density changed considerably during the passage of tropical cyclone Matmo on July 25, 2014. It was found that the SAL inversion layer in the mixed zone of the Yellow and Bohai Seas was caused by the tropical cyclone. Furthermore, it was found that the tropical cyclone transported the northern Yellow Sea cold water mass(NYSCWM) into the mixed zone of the Yellow and Bohai Seas. The NYSCWM has direct influence on both the aquaculture and the ecological environment of the region. Therefore, further research is needed to establish the mechanism behind the formation of the SAL inversion layer in the mixed zone, and to determine the influence of tropical cyclones on the NYSCWM.