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Impact of ocean data assimilation on the seasonal forecast of the 2014/15 marine heatwave in the Northeast Pacific Ocean
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作者 Tiantian Tang Jiaying He +1 位作者 Huihang Sun Jingjia Luo 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 2025年第1期24-31,共8页
A remarkable marine heatwave,known as the“Blob”,occurred in the Northeast Pacific Ocean from late 2013 to early 2016,which displayed strong warm anomalies extending from the surface to a depth of 300 m.This study em... A remarkable marine heatwave,known as the“Blob”,occurred in the Northeast Pacific Ocean from late 2013 to early 2016,which displayed strong warm anomalies extending from the surface to a depth of 300 m.This study employed two assimilation schemes based on the global Climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science(NUIST-CFS 1.0)to investigate the impact of ocean data assimilation on the seasonal prediction of this extreme marine heatwave.The sea surface temperature(SST)nudging scheme assimilates SST only,while the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)scheme assimilates observations from the surface to the deep ocean.The latter notably improves the forecasting skill for subsurface temperature anomalies,especially at the depth of 100-300 m(the lower layer),outperforming the SST nudging scheme.It excels in predicting both horizontal and vertical heat transport in the lower layer,contributing to improved forecasts of the lower-layer warming during the Blob.These improvements stem from the assimilation of subsurface observational data,which are important in predicting the upper-ocean conditions.The results suggest that assimilating ocean data with the EnKF scheme significantly enhances the accuracy in predicting subsurface temperature anomalies during the Blob and offers better understanding of its underlying mechanisms. 展开更多
关键词 seasonal forecast Ocean data assimilation Marine heatwave Subsurface temperature
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Seasonal changes in Hermit Thrush (Catharus guttatus) song syntax
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作者 Sean P.Roach Luke C.McLean +1 位作者 Jeff W.MacLeod Leslie S.Phillmore 《Avian Research》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第2期172-179,共8页
In many songbird species,birdsong features phonological syntax,meaning that the units within their vocal se-quences are ordered in a non-random way that adheres to a rule.While such syntactical patterns have been rich... In many songbird species,birdsong features phonological syntax,meaning that the units within their vocal se-quences are ordered in a non-random way that adheres to a rule.While such syntactical patterns have been richly described in many species,comparatively little is known about how those patterns contribute to song achieving its important functions.For each of song’s main functions,territorial defense and mate attraction,evidence of a role for syntax is limited.One species for which syntax has been thoroughly described is the Hermit Thrush(Catharus guttatus),which presents song types from their repertoires in a semi-predictable order and,in doing so,rapidly cycle up and down the frequency spectrum.The objective of the present study was to explore the importance of song syntax in the Hermit Thrush through a within-subject examination of how measures of syntax,such as the predictability of song type order within song sequences,shift over the breeding season.We hypothesized that,if such syntactical characteristics are important to breeding behaviour,they would be most prominent at the start of the breeding season when activity associated with territory establishment and mate attraction is most intense.Analysis revealed that,as predicted,the rigidness of song type ordering within se-quences was highest at the start of the season and declined thereafter.That song type sequences were most predictable at the vitally important early part of the breeding season fit our hypothesis that this aspect of song syntax is important to song’s functions related to territory establishment and/or mate attraction.Future work will clarify whether that role relates to one of song’s two main functions or serves song transmission in some broader way. 展开更多
关键词 BIRDSONG Hermit Thrush seasonal change STEREOTYPY SYNTAX
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Deep Learning Shows Promise for Seasonal Prediction of Antarctic Sea Ice in a Rapid Decline Scenario
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作者 Xiaoran DONG Yafei NIE +6 位作者 Jinfei WANG Hao LUO Yuchun GAO Yun WANG Jiping LIU Dake CHEN Qinghua YANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第8期1569-1573,共5页
The rapidly changing Antarctic sea ice has garnered significant interest. To enhance the prediction skill for sea ice and respond to the Sea Ice Prediction Network-South's latest call, this study presents the refo... The rapidly changing Antarctic sea ice has garnered significant interest. To enhance the prediction skill for sea ice and respond to the Sea Ice Prediction Network-South's latest call, this study presents the reforecast results of Antarctic sea-ice area and extent from December to June of the coming year with a Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory(Conv LSTM)Network. The reforecast experiments demonstrate that Conv LSTM captures the interannual and interseasonal variability of Antarctic sea ice successfully, and performs better than the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Based on this, we present the prediction from December 2023 to June 2024, indicating that the Antarctic sea ice will remain at lows, but may not create a new record low. This research highlights the promising application of deep learning in Antarctic sea-ice prediction. 展开更多
关键词 deep learning ANTARCTIC sea ice seasonal prediction
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Seasonal Variation of Hearing Sensitivity in the Red-eared Slider(Trachemys scripta elegans)
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作者 Tongliang WANG Jinxia YANG +3 位作者 Handong LI Jinhong LEI Haitao SHI Jichao WANG 《Asian Herpetological Research》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第2期82-89,共8页
Seasonal variation of hearing sensitivity has been observed in many vertebrate groups with obvious vocal behaviors.Circulating hormones,conspecific calling signals,and temperature are potential factors that drive thes... Seasonal variation of hearing sensitivity has been observed in many vertebrate groups with obvious vocal behaviors.Circulating hormones,conspecific calling signals,and temperature are potential factors that drive these plasticity patterns.Turtles have a hearing range that appears to be limited to under 1.5 kHz and are often thought to be non-vocal;thus,they are commonly neglected in vocal communication research.In this study,we aimed to determine whether the auditory phenotype exhibits seasonal variation in sensitivity and to analyze the potential factors driving such variation patterns in turtles.We measured hearing sensitivity and sex hormone levels in female(estradiol)and male(testosterone and dihydrotestosterone)Red-eared sliders(Trachemys scripta elegans)during spring and winter.The results showed that auditory brainstem response(ABR)thresholds were significantly lower in spring than in winter at a frequency range of 0.5-0.9 kHz.The hearing-sensitivity bandwidth was wider,and the ABR latency was significantly shorter in spring than in winter.No significant differences were found in estradiol,testosterone,and dihydrotestosterone levels in T.scripta elegans between spring and winter.This study is the first to reveal the seasonal variation of peripheral hearing sensitivity in turtles,a special animal group with limited hearing range and less vocalization.Temperature variations may be used to explain these seasonal effects,but further research is required to confirm our findings. 展开更多
关键词 auditory plasticity seasonal variation TEMPERATURE TURTLES
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Seasonal variation of mesoscale eddy intensity in the global ocean
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作者 Yongcan Zu Yue Fang +3 位作者 Shuangwen Sun Libao Gao Yang Yang Guijun Guo 《Acta Oceanologica Sinica》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第1期48-58,共11页
Mesoscale eddies are a prominent oceanic phenomenon that plays an important role in oceanic mass transport and energy conversion.Characterizing by rotational speed,the eddy intensity is one of the most fundamental pro... Mesoscale eddies are a prominent oceanic phenomenon that plays an important role in oceanic mass transport and energy conversion.Characterizing by rotational speed,the eddy intensity is one of the most fundamental properties of an eddy.However,the seasonal spatiotemporal variation in eddy intensity has not been examined from a global ocean perspective.In this study,we unveil the seasonal spatiotemporal characteristics of eddy intensity in the global ocean by using the latest satellite-altimetry-derived eddy trajectory data set.The results suggest that the eddy intensity has a distinct seasonal variation,reaching a peak in spring while attaining a minimum in autumn in the Northern Hemisphere and the opposite in the Southern Hemisphere.The seasonal variation of eddy intensity is more intense in the tropical-subtropical transition zones within latitudinal bands between 15°and 30°in the western Pacific Ocean,the northwestern Atlantic Ocean,and the eastern Indian Ocean because baroclinic instability in these areas changes sharply.Further analysis found that the seasonal variation of baroclinic instability precedes the eddy intensity by a phase of 2–3 months due to the initial perturbations needing time to grow into mesoscale eddies. 展开更多
关键词 seasonal variation mesoscale eddy INTENSITY baroclinic instability global ocean
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Litter production and leaf nutrient concentration and remobilization in response to climate seasonality in the central Amazon
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作者 Ricardo Antonio Marenco Saul Alfredo Antezana-Vera +1 位作者 Daniela Pereira Dias Luiz Antonio Candido 《Journal of Forestry Research》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第3期131-141,共11页
Litterfall is the largest source of nutrients to for-est soils of tropical rainforests.However,variability in lit-terfall production,nutrient remobilization,and changes in leaf nutrient concentration with climate seas... Litterfall is the largest source of nutrients to for-est soils of tropical rainforests.However,variability in lit-terfall production,nutrient remobilization,and changes in leaf nutrient concentration with climate seasonality remain largely unknown for the central Amazon.This study meas-ured litterfall production,leaf nutrient remobilization,and leaf area index on a forest plateau in the central Amazon.Litterfall was measured at monthly intervals during 2014,while nitrogen,phosphorus,potassium,calcium and mag-nesium concentrations of leaf litter and canopy leaves were measured in the dry and rainy seasons,and remobilization rates determined.Leaf area index was also recorded in the dry and rainy seasons.Monthly litterfall varied from 33.2(in the rainy season)to 87.6 g m^(-2) in the dry season,while leaf area index increased slightly in the rainy season.Climatic seasonality had no effect on concentrations of nitrogen,calcium,and magnesium,whereas phosphorous and potassium responded to rainfall seasonality oppositely.While phosphorous increased,potassium decreased during the dry season.Over seasons,nitrogen,potassium,and phosphorous decreased in leaf litter;calcium increased in leaf litter,while magnesium remained unaffected with leaf aging.Regardless,the five nutrients had similar remobilization rates over the year.The absence of climate seasonality on nutrient remobilization suggests that the current length of the dry season does not alter nutrient remobilization rates but this may change as dry periods become more prolonged in the future due to climate change. 展开更多
关键词 THROUGHFALL Nutrient cycling Climatic seasonality Leaf mass per area
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Seedling dynamics differ between canopy species and understory species in a tropical seasonal rainforest,SW China
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作者 Libing Pan Xiaoyang Song +2 位作者 Wenfu Zhang Jie Yang Min Cao 《Plant Diversity》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第5期671-677,共7页
We used 11 years of census data from 450 seedling quadrats established in a 20-ha forest dynamics plot to study seedling dynamics in tree species of a tropical seasonal rainforest in Xishuangbanna,southwestern China.W... We used 11 years of census data from 450 seedling quadrats established in a 20-ha forest dynamics plot to study seedling dynamics in tree species of a tropical seasonal rainforest in Xishuangbanna,southwestern China.We found that overall seedling recruitment rate and relative growth rate were higher in the rainy season than in the dry season.Both the recruitment rate of seedlings from canopy tree species(two species)and the relative growth rate of seedlings from understory species(nine species)were higher in the rainy season than in the dry season.However,in the rainy season,the recruitment rate of seedlings was higher for canopy tree species than for understory tree species.In addition,relative growth rate of seedlings was higher in the canopy species than in understory seedlings in the dry season.We also observed that,in both rainy and dry seasons,mortality rate of seedlings was higher for canopy species than for understory species.Overall,canopy tree species appear to have evolved a flexible strategy to adapt to the seasonal changes of a monsoon climate.In contrast,understory tree species seem to have adopted a conservative strategy.Specifically,these species mainly release seedlings in the rainy season and maintain relatively stable populations with a lower mortality rate and recruitment rate in both dry and rainy seasons.Our study suggests that canopy and understory seedling populations growing in forest understory may respond to future climate change scenarios with distinct regeneration strategies. 展开更多
关键词 Tropical forest Tree seedling seasonalITY RECRUITMENT Mortality Relative growth rate
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THE THRESHOLD DYNAMICS OF A WATERBORNE PATHOGEN MODEL WITH SEASONALITY IN A POLLUTED ENVIRONMENT
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作者 Shun ZHI Youhui SU +1 位作者 Hongtao NIU Lizhong QIANG 《Acta Mathematica Scientia》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第6期2165-2189,共25页
This paper concentrates on the dynamics of a waterborne pathogen periodic PDE model with environmental pollution.For this model,we derive the basic reproduction number R0and establish a threshold type result on its gl... This paper concentrates on the dynamics of a waterborne pathogen periodic PDE model with environmental pollution.For this model,we derive the basic reproduction number R0and establish a threshold type result on its global dynamics in terms of R0,which predicts the extinction or persistence of diseases.More precisely,the disease-free steady state is globally attractive if R_(0)<1,while the system admits at least one positive periodic solution and the disease is uniformly persistent if R_(0)>1.Moreover,we carry out some numerical simulations to illustrate the long-term behaviors of solutions and explore the influence of environmental pollution and seasonality on the spread of waterborne diseases. 展开更多
关键词 waterborne pathogen environmental pollution the basic reproduction number seasonalITY
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Degree of shade tolerance shapes seasonality of chlorophyll, nitrogen and phosphorus levels of trees and herbs in a temperate deciduous forest
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作者 Jiajia Zeng Fan Liu +5 位作者 Yuan Zhu Jiayi Li Ying Ruan Xiankui Quan Chuankuan Wang Xingchang Wang 《Journal of Forestry Research》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第4期60-72,共13页
Forest productivity is closely linked to seasonal variations and vertical differentiation in leaf traits.However,leaf structural and chemical traits variation among co-existing species,and plant functional types withi... Forest productivity is closely linked to seasonal variations and vertical differentiation in leaf traits.However,leaf structural and chemical traits variation among co-existing species,and plant functional types within the canopy are poorly quantified.In this study,the seasonality of leaf chlorophyll,nitrogen(N),and phosphorus(P)were quantified vertically along the canopy of four major tree species and two types of herbs in a temperate deciduous forest.The role of shade tolerance in shaping the seasonal variation and vertical differentiation was examined.During the entire season,chlorophyll content showed a distinct asymmetric unimodal pattern for all species,with greater chlorophyll levels in autumn than in spring,and the timing of peak chlorophyll per leaf area gradually decreased as shade tolerance increased.Chlorophyll a:b ratios gradually decreased with increasing shade tolerance.Leaf N and P contents sharply declined during leaf expansion,remained steady in the mature stage and decreased again during leaf senescence.Over the seasons,the lower canopy layer had significantly higher chlorophyll per leaf mass but not chlorophyll per leaf area than the upper canopy layer regardless of degree of shade tolerance.However,N and P per leaf area of intermediate shade-tolerant and fully shade-tolerant tree species were significantly higher in the upper canopy than in the lower.Seasonal variations in N:P ratios suggest changes in N or P limitation.These findings indicate that shade tolerance is a key feature shaping inter-specific differences in leaf chlorophyll,N,and P contents as well as their seasonality in temperate deciduous forests,which have significant implications for modeling leaf photosynthesis and ecosystem production. 展开更多
关键词 Leaf traits Leaf nutrients seasonal variations CHLOROPHYLL Nitrogen Phosphorus Shade tolerance Canopy layers
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Seasonal variation of melatonin secretion across various segments of the gastrointestinal tract in rats
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作者 Yuxin Zhang Xuejie Huang +6 位作者 Yilu Peng Yuxi Liang Wenjing Zhang Yadong Cui Xiaoying Xu Xiuhua Hu Xiaoyan Liu 《Journal of Traditional Chinese Medical Sciences》 CAS 2024年第3期275-282,共8页
Objective:To investigate whether melatonin(MT)secretion in different parts of the gastrointestinal tract(GIT)exhibits seasonal variations and its correlation with immune regulation.Methods: Sixty Sprague-Dawley rats w... Objective:To investigate whether melatonin(MT)secretion in different parts of the gastrointestinal tract(GIT)exhibits seasonal variations and its correlation with immune regulation.Methods: Sixty Sprague-Dawley rats were divided into control and model groups,and the pineal gland was removed in the model group.Stomach,jejunum,ileum,and colon tissues were obtained during the spring equinox,summer solstice,beginning of autumn,autumn equinox,and winter solstice.The levels of MT,MT receptors(MR),arylalkylamine N-acetyltransferase(AANAT),hydroxyindole-O-methyltransferase(HIOMT),interleukin-2(IL-2),and interleukin-10(IL-10)in the GIT were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.Results: Except for the stomach,the jejunum,ileum,and the colon showed seasonal tendencies in MT secretion.In the control group,MT secretion in the jejunum and ileum was the highest in the long summer,and colonic MT secretion was the highest in winter.In the model group,MT levels in the colon were highest in the summer.The seasonal rhythms of the MR,AANAT,HIOMT,IL-2,and IL-10 in the colon were roughly similar to those of MT,and changed accordingly after pinealectomy.Conclusions: Gastrointestinal MT secretion is related to seasonal changes,and MT secretion in each intestinal segment is influenced by different seasons.The biological effects of MT in the gut are inextricably linked to the mediation of MR,and a hormone-receptor linkage exists between MT and MR.The effect of seasonal changes on the gastrointestinal immune system may be mediated through the regulation of seasonal secretion of MT. 展开更多
关键词 MELATONIN seasonal variations Pineal gland Gastrointestinal tract Melatonin receptors
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Tea Production Response to Seasonal Rainfall Variability: Evidence from Rwanda
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作者 Joseph Ndagijimana Athanase Hafashimana 《Agricultural Sciences》 2024年第8期909-938,共30页
Tea is a very important cash crop in Rwanda, as it provides crucial income and employment for farmers in poor rural areas. From 2017 to 2020, this study was intended to determine the impact of seasonal rainfall on tea... Tea is a very important cash crop in Rwanda, as it provides crucial income and employment for farmers in poor rural areas. From 2017 to 2020, this study was intended to determine the impact of seasonal rainfall on tea output in Rwanda while still considering temperature, plot size (land), and fertiliser for tea plantations in three of Rwanda’s western, southern, and northern provinces, western province with “Gisovu” and “Nyabihu”, southern with “Kitabi”, and northern with “Mulindi” tea company. The study tested the level of statistical significance of all considered variables in different formulation of panel data models to assess individual behaviour of independent variables that would affect tea production. According to this study, a positive change in rainfall of 1 mm will increase tea production by 0.215 percentage points of tons of fresh leaves. Rainfall is a statistically significant variable among all variables with a positive impact on tea output Qitin Rwanda’s Western, Southern, and Northern provinces. Rainfall availability favourably affects tea output and supports our claim. Therefore, there is a need for collaboration efforts towards developing sustainable adaptation and mitigation options against climate change, targeting tea farming and the government to ensure that tea policy reforms are targeted towards raising the competitiveness of Rwandan tea at local and global market. 展开更多
关键词 Tea Production Climate Change Production Technology seasonal Variability Panel Data Models
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Downscaling Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts over East Africa with Deep Convolutional Neural Networks
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作者 Temesgen Gebremariam ASFAW Jing-Jia LUO 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第3期449-464,共16页
This study assesses the suitability of convolutional neural networks(CNNs) for downscaling precipitation over East Africa in the context of seasonal forecasting. To achieve this, we design a set of experiments that co... This study assesses the suitability of convolutional neural networks(CNNs) for downscaling precipitation over East Africa in the context of seasonal forecasting. To achieve this, we design a set of experiments that compare different CNN configurations and deployed the best-performing architecture to downscale one-month lead seasonal forecasts of June–July–August–September(JJAS) precipitation from the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System version 1.0(NUIST-CFS1.0) for 1982–2020. We also perform hyper-parameter optimization and introduce predictors over a larger area to include information about the main large-scale circulations that drive precipitation over the East Africa region, which improves the downscaling results. Finally, we validate the raw model and downscaled forecasts in terms of both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics, as well as their ability to reproduce the observed precipitation extreme and spell indicator indices. The results show that the CNN-based downscaling consistently improves the raw model forecasts, with lower bias and more accurate representations of the observed mean and extreme precipitation spatial patterns. Besides, CNN-based downscaling yields a much more accurate forecast of extreme and spell indicators and reduces the significant relative biases exhibited by the raw model predictions. Moreover, our results show that CNN-based downscaling yields better skill scores than the raw model forecasts over most portions of East Africa. The results demonstrate the potential usefulness of CNN in downscaling seasonal precipitation predictions over East Africa,particularly in providing improved forecast products which are essential for end users. 展开更多
关键词 East Africa seasonal precipitation forecasting DOWNSCALING deep learning convolutional neural networks(CNNs)
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Singular spectrum analysis for the time-variable seasonal signals from GPS in Yunnan Province
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作者 Weijie Tan Junping Chen +2 位作者 Yize Zhang Bin Wang Songyun Wang 《Geodesy and Geodynamics》 EI CSCD 2024年第6期582-591,共10页
Studying the seasonal deformation in GPS time series is important to interpreting geophysical contributors and identifying unmodeled and mismodeled seasonal signals.Traditional seasonal signal extraction used the leas... Studying the seasonal deformation in GPS time series is important to interpreting geophysical contributors and identifying unmodeled and mismodeled seasonal signals.Traditional seasonal signal extraction used the least squares method,which models seasonal deformation as a constant seasonal amplitude and phase.However,the seasonal variations are not constant from year to year,and the seasonal amplitude and phase are time-variable.In order to obtain the time-variable seasonal signal in the GPS station coordinate time series,singular spectrum analysis(SSA)is conducted in this study.We firstly applied the SSA on simulated seasonal signals with different frequencies 1.00 cycle per year(cpy),1.04 cpy and with time-variable amplitude are superimposed.It was found that SSA can successfully obtain the seasonal variations with different frequencies and with time-variable amplitude superimposed.Then,SSA is carried out on the GPS observations in Yunnan Province.The results show that the time-variable amplitude seasonal signals are ubiquitous in Yunnan Province,and the timevariable amplitude change in 2019 in the region is extracted,which is further explained by the soil moisture mass loading and atmospheric pressure loading.After removing the two loading effects,the SSA obtained modulated seasonal signals which contain the obvious seasonal variations at frequency of 1.046 cpy,it is close with the GPS draconitic year,1.040 cpy.Hence,the time-variable amplitude changes in 2019 and the seasonal GPS draconitic year in the region could be discriminated successfully by SSA in Yunnan Province. 展开更多
关键词 Singular spectrum analysis Modulated seasonal signals Time-variable amplitude GPS draconitic year
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Seasonal Variation of the Sea Surface Temperature Growth Rate of ENSO
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作者 Xinyi XING Xianghui FANG +1 位作者 Da PANG Chaopeng JI 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第3期465-477,共13页
El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) exhibits a distinctive phase-locking characteristic, first expressed during its onset in boreal spring, developing during summer and autumn, reaching its peak towards winter, and de... El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) exhibits a distinctive phase-locking characteristic, first expressed during its onset in boreal spring, developing during summer and autumn, reaching its peak towards winter, and decaying over the next spring. Several studies have demonstrated that this feature arises as a result of seasonal variation in the growth rate of ENSO as expressed by the sea surface temperature(SST). The bias towards simulating the phase locking of ENSO by many state-of-the-art climate models is also attributed to the unrealistic depiction of the growth rate. In this study, the seasonal variation of SST growth rate in the Ni?o-3.4 region(5°S–5°N, 120°–170°W) is estimated in detail based on the mixed layer heat budget equation and recharge oscillator model during 1981–2020. It is suggested that the consideration of a variable mixed layer depth is essential to its diagnostic process. The estimated growth rate has a remarkable seasonal cycle with minimum rates occurring in spring and maximum rates evident in autumn. More specifically, the growth rate derived from the meridional advection(surface heat flux) is positive(negative) throughout the year. Vertical diffusion generally makes a negative contribution to the evolution of growth rate and the magnitude of vertical entrainment represents the smallest contributor. Analysis indicates that the zonal advective feedback is regulated by the meridional immigration of the intertropical convergence zone, which approaches its southernmost extent in February and progresses to its northernmost location in September, and dominates the seasonal variation of the SST growth rate. 展开更多
关键词 SST growth rate intertropical convergence zone zonal advective feedback mixed layer depth ENSO seasonal variation
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Modeling the Seasonal Temperature from Hourly Data: Seasonal Divisions
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作者 Nicodeme Djiedeu Esther C. Modi-Mbog Laurent Nana 《Atmospheric and Climate Sciences》 2024年第4期474-483,共10页
In this work, we present a general theoretical study leading to analytical expression of the seasonal temperature at the near surface that is expected to evaluate any area seasonal temperature of the world using the l... In this work, we present a general theoretical study leading to analytical expression of the seasonal temperature at the near surface that is expected to evaluate any area seasonal temperature of the world using the least square method to fit the hourly data to the theoretical curve of the temperature. It is shown that the temperature is globally the result of two contributions: the contribution of the revolution movement of the terrestrial globe on its elliptical orbit around the sun, the contribution of the spin-orbit coupling for the rotation movement of the terrestrial globe around its polar axis and its revolution movement. The orbital behavior of the temperature is used to find the seasonal divisions of the climate for the local area considered. The whole expression of the temperature is very useful for the meteorological needs. The contribution of the human activities and natural instabilities are the results of discrepancies which increase errors (standard deviations). 展开更多
关键词 seasonal Temperature Orbital Temperature Spin-Orbit Temperature Hourly Data seasonal Divisions
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Effect of Seasonal Variations on the Behavior of Flexible Pavements in Burkina Faso: Towards Alternating and Periodic Loading of Multi-Axle Heavy Goods Vehicles for Road Durability
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作者 Kokoro Kobori Doua Allain Gnabahou Bouto Kossi Imbga 《Journal of Materials Science and Chemical Engineering》 2024年第6期24-42,共19页
Bituminous materials are heat-sensitive, and their mechanical properties vary with temperature. This variation in properties is not without consequences on the performance of flexible road structures under the repeate... Bituminous materials are heat-sensitive, and their mechanical properties vary with temperature. This variation in properties is not without consequences on the performance of flexible road structures under the repeated passage of multi-axles. This study determines the influence of seasonal variations on the rate of permanent deformation, the rut depth of flexible pavements and the effect of alternating loading of heavy goods vehicles following the temperature variations on the durability of roads. Thus, an ambient and pavement surface temperature measurement was carried out in 2022. The temperature profile at different layers of the modelled pavement, the evaluation of deformation rates and rutting depth were determined using several models. The results show that the permanent deformation and rutting rates are higher at the level of the bituminous concrete layer than at the level of the asphalt gravel layer because the stresses decrease from the surface to the depth of the pavement. On the other hand, the variations in these rates, permanent deformations and ruts between the hot and so-called cold periods are more pronounced in the bitumen gravel than in bituminous concrete, showing that gravel bitumen is more sensitive to temperature variations than bituminous concrete despite its higher rigidity. Of these results, we suggested a periodic and alternating loading of the different types of heavy goods vehicles. These loads consist of fully applying the WAEMU standards with a tolerance of 15% during periods of high and low temperatures. This regulation has increased 2 to 3 times in the durability of roadways depending on the type of heavy goods vehicle. 展开更多
关键词 PAVEMENT RUTTING Permanent Deformation Multi-Axle seasonal
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Seasonal Performance of Solar Power Plants in the Sahel Region: A Study in Senegal, West Africa
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作者 Serigne Abdoul Aziz Niang Mamadou Simina Drame +4 位作者 Astou Sarr Mame Diarra Toure Ahmed Gueye Seydina Oumar Ndiaye Kharouna Talla 《Smart Grid and Renewable Energy》 2024年第2期79-97,共19页
The main objective of this study is to evaluate the seasonal performance of 20 MW solar power plants in Senegal. The analysis revealed notable seasonal variations in the performance of all stations. The most significa... The main objective of this study is to evaluate the seasonal performance of 20 MW solar power plants in Senegal. The analysis revealed notable seasonal variations in the performance of all stations. The most significant yields are recorded in spring, autumn and winter, with values ranging from 5 to 7.51 kWh/kWp/day for the reference yield and 4.02 to 7.58 kWh/kWp/day for the final yield. These fluctuations are associated with intense solar activity during the dry season and clear skies, indicating peak production. Conversely, minimum values are recorded during the rainy season from June to September, with a final yield of 3.86 kWh/kW/day due to dust, clouds and high temperatures. The performance ratio analysis shows seasonal dynamics throughout the year with rates ranging from 77.40% to 95.79%, reinforcing reliability and optimal utilization of installed capacity. The results of the capacity factor vary significantly, with March, April, May, and sometimes October standing out as periods of optimal performance, with 16% for Kahone, 16% for Bokhol, 18% for Malicounda and 23% for Sakal. Total losses from solar power plants show similar seasonal trends standing out for high loss levels from June to July, reaching up to 3.35 kWh/kWp/day in June. However, using solar trackers at Sakal has increased production by up to 25%, demonstrating the operational stability of this innovative technology compared with the plants fixed panel. Finally, comparing these results with international studies confirms the outstanding efficiency of Senegalese solar power plants, other installations around the world. 展开更多
关键词 Performance Study Photovoltaic Power Plant season Variations Senegal
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Different medications for seasonal allergic rhinitis in adults:A systematic review and meta-analysis
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作者 Jiang-Yuan Qin Geng Huang +2 位作者 Zhi-Hui Pan Lan-Fang Liao Heng-Fen Hu 《World Journal of Meta-Analysis》 2024年第4期32-42,共11页
BACKGROUND While the efficacy of medications such as fluticasone furoate(FF),fluticasone propionate(FP),and azelastine-fluticasone(AF)has been substantiated in comparison to their respective placebo controls,uncertain... BACKGROUND While the efficacy of medications such as fluticasone furoate(FF),fluticasone propionate(FP),and azelastine-fluticasone(AF)has been substantiated in comparison to their respective placebo controls,uncertainties persist regarding the comparative effectiveness of different intranasal agents.AIM To evaluate the efficacy of FP,FF,and AF in the treatment of adult patients with seasonal allergic rhinitis(SAR)using a meta-analytic approach.METHODS A computer search was conducted in Cochrane Library,PubMed,and EMBASE databases to identify randomized controlled trials assessing the effectiveness and safety of FF,FP,and AF in treating SAR.Data on treatment safety and efficacy were extracted and analyzed through meta-analysis.RESULTS A total of 20 studies were included,comprising 10590 participants.The results of the direct meta-analysis indicated that,compared to placebo,both relative Total Nasal Symptom Score(rTNSS)and relative Total Ocular Symptom Score(rTOSS)significantly decreased post-intervention[mean difference(MD)=-1.48,95%confidence interval(CI):-1.73 to-1.22;MD=-0.66,95%CI:-0.82 to-0.49],with similar findings observed across the FF,FP,and AF subgroups.The network meta-analysis results showed that for improving rTNSS and rTOSS,the SUCRA values ranking from highest to lowest were AF,FP,FF,and placebo.Improvements in rTNSS and rTOSS with FP,FF,and AF were all significantly greater than those observed with placebo,with AF demonstrating superior efficacy compared to both FP and FF.No statistically significant difference in rTNSS improvement was found between FP and FF,although FP exhibited significantly greater improvement in rTOSS compared to FF.CONCLUSION In adult patients with SAR,the combination of azelastine and fluticasone shows a significant effect in improving nasal and ocular symptoms,with FP demonstrating marked improvement in ocular symptoms compared to FF. 展开更多
关键词 seasonal allergic rhinitis Fluticasone propionate Fluticasone furoate Azelastine-fluticasone
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A Hybrid Model Evaluation Based on PCA Regression Schemes Applied to Seasonal Precipitation Forecast
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作者 Pedro M. González-Jardines Aleida Rosquete-Estévez +1 位作者 Maibys Sierra-Lorenzo Arnoldo Bezanilla-Morlot 《Atmospheric and Climate Sciences》 2024年第3期328-353,共26页
Possible changes in the structure and seasonal variability of the subtropical ridge may lead to changes in the rainfall’s variability modes over Caribbean region. This generates additional difficulties around water r... Possible changes in the structure and seasonal variability of the subtropical ridge may lead to changes in the rainfall’s variability modes over Caribbean region. This generates additional difficulties around water resource planning, therefore, obtaining seasonal prediction models that allow these variations to be characterized in detail, it’s a concern, specially for island states. This research proposes the construction of statistical-dynamic models based on PCA regression methods. It is used as predictand the monthly precipitation accumulated, while the predictors (6) are extracted from the ECMWF-SEAS5 ensemble mean forecasts with a lag of one month with respect to the target month. In the construction of the models, two sequential training schemes are evaluated, obtaining that only the shorter preserves the seasonal characteristics of the predictand. The evaluation metrics used, where cell-point and dichotomous methodologies are combined, suggest that the predictors related to sea surface temperatures do not adequately represent the seasonal variability of the predictand, however, others such as the temperature at 850 hPa and the Outgoing Longwave Radiation are represented with a good approximation regardless of the model chosen. In this sense, the models built with the nearest neighbor methodology were the most efficient. Using the individual models with the best results, an ensemble is built that allows improving the individual skill of the models selected as members by correcting the underestimation of precipitation in the dynamic model during the wet season, although problems of overestimation persist for thresholds lower than 50 mm. 展开更多
关键词 seasonal Forecast Principal Component Regression Statistical-Dynamic Models
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Extended spectrum cephalosporin(ESC)resistant Escherichia coli:trends and seasonality in the Netherlands from 2014 to 2022
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作者 Michael S.M.Brouwer Eduardo de Freitas Costa +2 位作者 Anita Dame-Korevaar Adam P.Roberts Kees T.Veldman 《Science in One Health》 2024年第1期215-220,共6页
Background:Antimicrobial resistance(AMR)in livestock and the environment likely contribute to the prevalence of AMR in humans with potential detrimental effects on human health.As such,annual mandatory monitoring of A... Background:Antimicrobial resistance(AMR)in livestock and the environment likely contribute to the prevalence of AMR in humans with potential detrimental effects on human health.As such,annual mandatory monitoring of AMR in livestock occurs within the European Union(EU),according to harmonised methods.Extended-spectrum cephalosporins-resistant(ESC-resistant)Escherichia coli,including extended-spectrumβ-lactamases(ESBL),AmpCβ-lactamases(AmpC)and carbapenemase producing E.coli,are considered of particular importance and are therefore included in the monitoring program.Methods:Using results from the annual monitoring of ESC-resistant E.coli from 2014-2022,trends in prevalence per animal sector were determined over the complete time period,as well as potential seasonal effects.Results:During these nine years,significant changes were observed in the prevalence of ESC-resistant E.coli,in broilers,dairy cattle and veal calves,while no changes in prevalence were seen in slaughter pigs.Furthermore,the prevalence of ESC-resistant E.coli is positively correlated with warmer seasons(summer and autumn)for both dairy cattle and veal calves,while no associations were found for broilers and slaughter pigs.While temperature itself may play a role in the prevalence of ESC-resistant E.coli,other factors affecting the selective landscape,such as antibiotic usage,will also play a role.Conclusion:A combined analysis of antimicrobial usage and prevalence of ESC-resistant E.coli through the year,both in livestock and human samples,would be an interesting follow-up of this study. 展开更多
关键词 AMR Livestock season ESBL Extended-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant
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