The aim of this study was to develop an adequate mathematical model for long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth in the digital age (2020-2050). In addition, the task was to develop a model ...The aim of this study was to develop an adequate mathematical model for long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth in the digital age (2020-2050). In addition, the task was to develop a model for forecast calculations of labor productivity in the symbiosis of “man + intelligent machine”, where an intelligent machine (IM) is understood as a computer or robot equipped with elements of artificial intelligence (AI), as well as in the digital economy as a whole. In the course of the study, it was shown that in order to implement its goals the Schumpeter-Kondratiev innovation and cycle theory on forming long waves (LW) of economic development influenced by a powerful cluster of economic technologies engendered by industrial revolutions is most appropriate for a long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth. The Solow neoclassical model of economic growth, synchronized with LW, gives the opportunity to forecast economic dynamics of technologically advanced countries with a greater precision up to 30 years, the time which correlates with the continuation of LW. In the information and digital age, the key role among the main factors of growth (capital, labour and technological progress) is played by the latter. The authors have developed an information model which allows for forecasting technological progress basing on growth rates of endogenous technological information in economics. The main regimes of producing technological information, corresponding to the eras of information and digital economies, are given in the article, as well as the Lagrangians that engender them. The model is verified on the example of the 5<sup>th</sup> information LW for the US economy (1982-2018) and it has had highly accurate approximation for both technological progress and economic growth. A number of new results were obtained using the developed information models for forecasting technological progress. The forecasting trajectory of economic growth of developed countries (on the example of the USA) on the upward stage of the 6<sup>th</sup> LW (2018-2042), engendered by the digital technologies of the 4<sup>th</sup> Industrial Revolution is given. It is also demonstrated that the symbiosis of human and intelligent machine (IM) is the driving force in the digital economy, where man plays the leading role organizing effective and efficient mutual work. Authors suggest a mathematical model for calculating labour productivity in the digital economy, where the symbiosis of “human + IM” is widely used. The calculations carried out with the help of the model show: 1) the symbiosis of “human + IM” from the very beginning lets to realize the possibilities of increasing work performance in the economy with the help of digital technologies;2) the largest labour productivity is achieved in the symbiosis of “human + IM”, where man labour prevails, and the lowest labour productivity is seen where the largest part of the work is performed by IM;3) developed countries may achieve labour productivity of 3% per year by the mid-2020s, which has all the chances to stay up to the 2040s.展开更多
This paper aims to the debate on the nexus between informal economies and the environment by investigating the long-term dynamic impacts of China’s informal economies on pollution and considering regional differences...This paper aims to the debate on the nexus between informal economies and the environment by investigating the long-term dynamic impacts of China’s informal economies on pollution and considering regional differences in informal economies’ pollution.This paper uses the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes(MIMIC) model to estimate the size of informal economies and employs econometric models to examine their relationships to pollution based on provincial-level panel data from 2000 to 2017. The results indicate that informal economies’ effects on environmental pollution are not purely positive or negative. Rather, our model indicates that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between informal economies and pollution in the long run in China;this means that the level of environmental pollution increases at first and then decreases with the growth of informal economies. Further analysis shows that while this inverted, U-shaped relationship is significant in different regions of China, it is affected by different environmental impact factors. The paper concludes by discussing the policy implications for environmental protection and sustainable development.展开更多
The accelerating diffusion of information and communication technologies(ICTs)opens up increasing interactions between nations and between social groups at all development levels.The purpose of this study is to asses...The accelerating diffusion of information and communication technologies(ICTs)opens up increasing interactions between nations and between social groups at all development levels.The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of ICTs on the gross domestic product(GDP)of countries at different development levels.The investigation of this study shows that in developing nations,the growth of the ICT sector is mostly consumer-oriented and focussed on the provision of electronic services for ultimate customers.On the contrary,in developed countries,it concentrates on the expansion of digitalisation with increasing socio-economic interaction.In developing nations,the ICT sector’s contribution to the GDP is unlikely to increase.A few exceptions are China,India,Malaysia,and Serbia,which are among the top ten leading economies in terms of the growth of the ICT sector.In general,the role of ICTs in the GDP largely depends on the production structure,level of economic development,and employment rate.The results of this study can be useful for countries’strategic development in ICTs and for improving their digital indicators in the future.展开更多
协调发展是高质量发展的重要体现,城乡收入分配是协调发展的主要方面,从政府干预的视角重新解读数字经济发展的收入分配效应,对于更好发挥有为政府作用以及促进共同富裕具有重要的现实意义.为探寻数字经济发展对中国城乡收入差距的影响...协调发展是高质量发展的重要体现,城乡收入分配是协调发展的主要方面,从政府干预的视角重新解读数字经济发展的收入分配效应,对于更好发挥有为政府作用以及促进共同富裕具有重要的现实意义.为探寻数字经济发展对中国城乡收入差距的影响,以及政府干预在数字经济时代下的收入分配效应中扮演的角色,基于包含柯布道格拉斯生产函数以及世代交叠(overlapping generation model,OLG)模型的收入分配理论框架,考察数字经济、政府干预以及城乡收入差距三者间的逻辑关系.理论结果发现,政府的有效干预能够更好地发挥数字经济对城乡收入分配的改善作用.采用普通最小二乘法(ordinary least squares,OLS)和工具变量-两阶段最小二乘法(instrumental variables-two stage least squares,IV-2SLS)等估计方法,基于调节效应模型从实证层面对理论推论进行实证检验.实证分析还发现,数字经济水平越高,对城乡收入差距的边际缩减作用越大;数字经济显著缩小了中国东部地区和西部地区以及2013年后的城乡收入差距,但对中部地区以及2013年前城乡收入差距的抑制效应并不明显.研究结果表明,当前或今后一段时期内,应通过有形之手,大力提高农村地区的数字经济水平,实现有为政府和有效市场的结合,以使得数字经济能够充分发挥其收敛城乡收入差距的普惠性,进一步推动共同富裕.展开更多
文摘The aim of this study was to develop an adequate mathematical model for long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth in the digital age (2020-2050). In addition, the task was to develop a model for forecast calculations of labor productivity in the symbiosis of “man + intelligent machine”, where an intelligent machine (IM) is understood as a computer or robot equipped with elements of artificial intelligence (AI), as well as in the digital economy as a whole. In the course of the study, it was shown that in order to implement its goals the Schumpeter-Kondratiev innovation and cycle theory on forming long waves (LW) of economic development influenced by a powerful cluster of economic technologies engendered by industrial revolutions is most appropriate for a long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth. The Solow neoclassical model of economic growth, synchronized with LW, gives the opportunity to forecast economic dynamics of technologically advanced countries with a greater precision up to 30 years, the time which correlates with the continuation of LW. In the information and digital age, the key role among the main factors of growth (capital, labour and technological progress) is played by the latter. The authors have developed an information model which allows for forecasting technological progress basing on growth rates of endogenous technological information in economics. The main regimes of producing technological information, corresponding to the eras of information and digital economies, are given in the article, as well as the Lagrangians that engender them. The model is verified on the example of the 5<sup>th</sup> information LW for the US economy (1982-2018) and it has had highly accurate approximation for both technological progress and economic growth. A number of new results were obtained using the developed information models for forecasting technological progress. The forecasting trajectory of economic growth of developed countries (on the example of the USA) on the upward stage of the 6<sup>th</sup> LW (2018-2042), engendered by the digital technologies of the 4<sup>th</sup> Industrial Revolution is given. It is also demonstrated that the symbiosis of human and intelligent machine (IM) is the driving force in the digital economy, where man plays the leading role organizing effective and efficient mutual work. Authors suggest a mathematical model for calculating labour productivity in the digital economy, where the symbiosis of “human + IM” is widely used. The calculations carried out with the help of the model show: 1) the symbiosis of “human + IM” from the very beginning lets to realize the possibilities of increasing work performance in the economy with the help of digital technologies;2) the largest labour productivity is achieved in the symbiosis of “human + IM”, where man labour prevails, and the lowest labour productivity is seen where the largest part of the work is performed by IM;3) developed countries may achieve labour productivity of 3% per year by the mid-2020s, which has all the chances to stay up to the 2040s.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41930646,41771137)the Guangdong Academy of Sciences(GDAS)Project of Science and Technology Development(No.2019GDASYL-0104004)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.20lgpy31)。
文摘This paper aims to the debate on the nexus between informal economies and the environment by investigating the long-term dynamic impacts of China’s informal economies on pollution and considering regional differences in informal economies’ pollution.This paper uses the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes(MIMIC) model to estimate the size of informal economies and employs econometric models to examine their relationships to pollution based on provincial-level panel data from 2000 to 2017. The results indicate that informal economies’ effects on environmental pollution are not purely positive or negative. Rather, our model indicates that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between informal economies and pollution in the long run in China;this means that the level of environmental pollution increases at first and then decreases with the growth of informal economies. Further analysis shows that while this inverted, U-shaped relationship is significant in different regions of China, it is affected by different environmental impact factors. The paper concludes by discussing the policy implications for environmental protection and sustainable development.
文摘The accelerating diffusion of information and communication technologies(ICTs)opens up increasing interactions between nations and between social groups at all development levels.The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of ICTs on the gross domestic product(GDP)of countries at different development levels.The investigation of this study shows that in developing nations,the growth of the ICT sector is mostly consumer-oriented and focussed on the provision of electronic services for ultimate customers.On the contrary,in developed countries,it concentrates on the expansion of digitalisation with increasing socio-economic interaction.In developing nations,the ICT sector’s contribution to the GDP is unlikely to increase.A few exceptions are China,India,Malaysia,and Serbia,which are among the top ten leading economies in terms of the growth of the ICT sector.In general,the role of ICTs in the GDP largely depends on the production structure,level of economic development,and employment rate.The results of this study can be useful for countries’strategic development in ICTs and for improving their digital indicators in the future.
文摘协调发展是高质量发展的重要体现,城乡收入分配是协调发展的主要方面,从政府干预的视角重新解读数字经济发展的收入分配效应,对于更好发挥有为政府作用以及促进共同富裕具有重要的现实意义.为探寻数字经济发展对中国城乡收入差距的影响,以及政府干预在数字经济时代下的收入分配效应中扮演的角色,基于包含柯布道格拉斯生产函数以及世代交叠(overlapping generation model,OLG)模型的收入分配理论框架,考察数字经济、政府干预以及城乡收入差距三者间的逻辑关系.理论结果发现,政府的有效干预能够更好地发挥数字经济对城乡收入分配的改善作用.采用普通最小二乘法(ordinary least squares,OLS)和工具变量-两阶段最小二乘法(instrumental variables-two stage least squares,IV-2SLS)等估计方法,基于调节效应模型从实证层面对理论推论进行实证检验.实证分析还发现,数字经济水平越高,对城乡收入差距的边际缩减作用越大;数字经济显著缩小了中国东部地区和西部地区以及2013年后的城乡收入差距,但对中部地区以及2013年前城乡收入差距的抑制效应并不明显.研究结果表明,当前或今后一段时期内,应通过有形之手,大力提高农村地区的数字经济水平,实现有为政府和有效市场的结合,以使得数字经济能够充分发挥其收敛城乡收入差距的普惠性,进一步推动共同富裕.
