The Validity of the Thermohydrogravidynamic Theory Concerning the Predicted Dates of the Maximal Temporal Intensifications of the Global Seismotectonic Processes of the Earth during the Range 2020 - 2023 AD

We present (on the 13th International Conference on Geology and Geophysics) the convincing evidence that the strongest earthquakes (according to the U.S. Geological Survey) of the Earth (during the range 2020 - 2023 AD) occurred near the predicted (calculated in advance based on the global prediction thermohydrogravidynamic principles determining the maximal temporal intensifications of the global seismotectonic, volcanic, climatic and magnetic processes of the Earth) dates 2020.016666667 AD (Simonenko, 2020), 2021.1 AD (Simonenko, 2019, 2020), 2022.18333333 AD (Simonenko, 2021), 2023.26666666 AD (Simonenko, 2022) and 2020.55 AD, 2021.65 AD (Simonenko, 2019, 2021), 2022.716666666 AD (Simonenko, 2022), respectively, corresponding to the local maximal and to the local minimal, respectively, combined planetary and solar integral energy gravitational influences on the internal rigid core of the Earth. We present the short-term thermohydrogravidynamic technology (based on the generalized differential formulation of the first law of thermodynamics and the first global prediction thermohydrogravidynamic principle) for evaluation of the maximal magnitude of the strongest (during the March, 2023 AD) earthquake of the Earth occurred on March 16, 2023 AD (according to the U.S. Geological Survey). .

Preface to the special issue on seismotectonics of Asia: Progress in seismotectonic studies at Peking University

Seismotectonics is one of the new research areas of seismology with its main focus on studying the detailed seismic structure of lithosphere and upper mantle using seismic records, particularly the records collected at portable seismic arrays. Development of new seismic methods utilizing seismic arrays such as receiver functions, SKS-splitting analysis, body- and surface-wave tomography, and recently ambient noise tomography （Langston, 1977; Dueker and Sheehan, 1997;

Seismotectonics of the 2008 and 2009 Qaidam Earthquakes and its Implication for Regional Tectonics

Three magnitude 〉6 earthquakes struck Qaidam, Qinghai province, China, in November 10th 2008, August 28th and 31st 2009 respectively. The Zongwulongshan fault has often been designated as the active seismogenic structure, although it is at odd with the data. Our continuous GPS station （CGPS）, the Xiao Qaidam station, located in the north of the Qaidam basin, is less than 30 km to the southwest of the 2008 earthquake. This CGPS station recorded the near field co-seismic deformation. Here we analyzed the co-seismic dislocation based on the GPS time series and the rupture processes from focal mechanism for the three earthquakes. The afiershocks were relocated to constrain the spatial characteristics of the 2008 and 2009 Qaidam earthquakes. Field geological and geomorphological investigation and interpretation of satellite images show that the Xitieshan fault and Zongwulongshan fault were activated as left lateral thrust during the late Quaternary. Evidence of folding can also be identified. Integrated analyses based on our data and the regional tectonic environment show that the Xitieshan fault is the fault responsible for the 2008 Qaidam earthquake, which is a low dip angle thrust with left lateral strike slip. The Zongwulongshan fault is the seismogenic fault of the 2009 earthquakes, which is a south dipping back thrust of the northern marginal thrust system of the Qaidam basin. Folding takes a significant part of the deformation in the northern marginal thrust system of the Qaidam basin, dominating the contemporary structure style of the northern margin of the Qaidam basin and Qilianshan tectonic system. In this region, this fault and fold system dominates the earthquake activities with frequent small magnitude earthquakes.

Seismotectonic environment of occurring the February 3, 1996 Lijiang M=7.0 earthquake, Yunnan Province

Lijiang-Daju fault, the seismogenic fault of the 1996 Lijiang M=7.0 earthquake, can be divided into Lijiang-Yuhu segment in the south and Yuhu-Daju segment in the north. The two segments show clear difference in geological tectonics, but have the similar dynamic features. Both normal dip-slip and sinistral strike-slip coexist on the fault plane. This kind of movement started at the beginning of the Quaternary (2.4~2.5 Ma B.P.). As to the tectonic types, the detachment fault with low angle was developed in the Early Pleistocene and the normal fault with high angle only after the Mid-Pleistocene (0.8 Ma B.P.). Based on the horizontal displacements of gullies and the vertical variance of planation surfaces cross the Lijiang-Daju fault at east piedmont of Yulong-Haba range, the average horizontal and vertical slip rates are calculated. They are 0.84 mm/a and 0.70 mm/a since the Quaternary and 1.56 mm/a and 1.69 mm/a since the Mid-Pleistocene. The movements of the nearly N-S-trending Lijiang-Daju fault are controlled not only by the regional stress field, but also by the variant movement between the Yulong-Haba range and Lijiang basin. The two kinds of dynamic processes form the characteristics of seismotectonic environment of occurring the 1996 Lijiang earthquake.

Seismotectonics in the Pamir:An oblique transpressional shear and south-directed deep-subduction model

The 3-D geometry of the seismicity in Hindu Kush-Pamir--western China region has been defined by seismic records for 1975-1999 from the National Earthquake Information Center, the U.S. Geological Survey, and over 16,000 relocated earthquakes since 1975 recorded by the Xinjiang seismic network of China. The results show that most Ms≥ 5.0 hypocenters in the area are confined to a major intracontinental seismic shear zone （MSSZ）. The MSSZ, which dips southwards in Pamir has a north- dipping counterpart in the Hindu Kush to the west; the two tectonic realms are separated by the sinistral Chaman transform fault of the India-Asia collisional zone. We demonstrate that the MSSZ constitutes the upper boundary of a south-dipping, actively subducting Pamir continental plate. Three seismic concentrations are recognized just above the Pamir MSSZ at depths between 45-65 km, 95-120 km, and 180-220 km, suggesting different structural relationships where each occurs. Results from focal mechanism solutions in all three seismological concentrations show orientations of the principal maximum stress to be nearly horizontal in an NNW-SSE direction. The south-dipping Pamir subduction slab is wedge-shaped with a wide upper top and a narrow deeper bottom; the slab has a gentle angle of dip in the upper part and steeper dips in the lower part below an elbow depth of ca. 80--120 km. Most of the deformation related to the earthquakes occurs within the hanging wall of the subducting Pamir slab. Published geologic data and repeated GPS measurements in the Pamir document a broad supra-subduc- tion, upper crustal zone of evolving antithetic （i.e. north-dipping） back-thrusts that contribute to northsouth crustal shortening and are responsible for exhumation of some ultrahigh-pressure rocks formed during earlier Tethyan plate convergence. An alternating occurrence in activity of Pamir and Chaman seismic zones indicates that there is interaction between strike-slip movement of the Chaman transform fault system and deep-subduction of the Pamir earthquake zone. Pamir subdnction-related seismicity becomes shallower in depth with increasing distance east of the transform fault. Therefore, sinistral movement of the Chaman transform fault appears to be influencing continental deep-subduction in the Pamir region and may provide an explanation for the unusual south-dipping geometry of the intracontinental Pamir plate.

Tomographic investigation of the upper crustal structure and seismotectonic environments in Yunnan Province

Investigation has been made for the upper crust structure and seismotectonic environments in Yunnan Province using the plentiful DSS data of the four profiles. The derived velocity model has a good relationship with the ex-posed basins, uplifts and faults. The low velocity anomaly corresponding to the volcano also has been revealed. There exists a prominent lateral inhomogeneity within the upper crust of Yunnan region. The depth of crystalline basement generally ranges from 0 km to 5 km, and the bedrocks are exposed on the ground directly in some places, nevertheless the thickness of sedimentary cover also can reach to 8 km or even 12 km at some large depressions. Although the Changning-Shuangjiang fault is a boundary between two first class tectonic units, its incision depth within the crust maybe shallow. On the other hand, known as the plates seam, the Honghe fault has a distinct evi-dence of extending into the mid-lower crust. The widely spread activity of the volcanoes in the geological era has a close relationship with the earthquakes occurrence nowadays. Despite of the ceasing of the volcanoes in some places on the ground, the material in the mid-lower crust is still active, and there still exists strong upward stress. As the ceasing of the volcanoes on the surface, most parts of the power from the lower crust and the upper mantle cannot be released; therefore it accumulates at some appropriate tectonic locations. Moreover, the saturation of the water from the basin, the action of other fluids, and the effects of the outer stress maybe another direct reason ac-count for the strong earthquakes occurrence in Yunnan region.

Preliminary Study on Two Newly-Generated Seismotectonic Zones in North and Southwest China

In previous seismotectonic studies,the emphasis was placed on the inherited active fault zones.In the recent tectonic stage that essentially keeps in step with the current regional geologic environment and the stress field,however,there are also some newly generated fault zones.By studying the seismicity in North and Southwest China,it has been known that the NE-trending Tangshan-Hejian-Cixian and NW-trending Tengchong-Gengma-Lancang seismic zones are just two newly generated fault zones.As distinguished from the inherited fault zones,they are called the newly generated seismotectonic zones.This paper deals with the existence of these two seismogenic zones from their seismicity and geological structures,gives a preliminary analysis of their characteristics,and shows their significance.

Belt-Parallel Shortening in the Northern Apennines and Seismotectonic Implications

Major seismic activity in the Northern Apennines concentrates in few zones, distributed in a peculiar way. It is argued that such context may be plausibly explained as an effect of belt-parallel?shortening, which has caused oroclinal bending of the longitudinal ridges formed during the Late Miocene to Lower Pliocene evolutionary phase. The main effects of this process, developed since the upper Pliocene, have mainly affected the outer sectors of the belt. The major seismic sources have generated in the zones where different oroclinal bendings of adjacent ridges have produced extensional/transtensional deformation. In the inner side of the Northern Apennines, belt parallel shortening has occurred at a lower rate. The main effects have resulted from the shortening of the?Albano-Chianti-Rapolano-Cetona ridge. In particular, the proposed tectonic setting may account?for the moderate seismic activity that occurs in the Firenze, Elsa, Pesa, Siena and Radicofani basins.

A Seismotectonic Zonation Map of Eastern Siberia: New Principles and Methods of Mapping

The paper reviews goals and objectives, stages and components of a seismotectonic study conducted in Eastern Siberia, Russia. Based on a comprehensive analysis of geological and geophysical data, our study establishes whether the local earthquakes are of tectonic origin and reveals relationships among earthquakes with recent geodynamic processes in the area under study. Seismic hazard assessment and evaluation of tectonic processes are the two major closely interrelated aspects of seismotectonic studies. A seismotectonic study is generally combined with a seismic study and conducted prior to the stage of detailed seismic zonation (DSZ) which is followed by seismic micro-zonation (SMZ). In three stages of the seismotectonic study, we analyze specific geological structures, reveal the regional dynamics of seismotectonic processes, clarify details of potential seismic hazard locations and identify sites of the potential instantaneous deformation of the crust which may take place due to active faulting. Based on results of our longterm studies, a seismotectonic zonation map of Eastern Siberia is compiled. The paper briefly reviews the methods of mapping and refers to data on active faults and neotectonic structures revealed in the area under study, which are closely related to regional earthquake sources.

Seismotectonics of the Padanian Region and Surrounding Belts: Which Driving Mechanism?

It is argued that the complex tectonic pattern observed in the study area can plausibly be explained as an effect of the kinematics of the Iberia and Adria blocks, induced by the NNE ward motion of Africa and the roughly westward motion of the Anatolian-Aegean system with respect to Eurasia. These boundary conditions cause the constrictional regime which is responsible for the observed shortening processes in the Padanian region and Western Alps. The proposed dynamic context can plausibly account for the peculiar distribution of major seismic sources, located in the northern Apennines, the Giudicarie fault system, the offshore of the western Ligurian coast and the Swiss Alps. The observed tectonic pattern in Western Europe and the study area can hardly be reconciled with the implications of the roughly NWward convergence between Africa and Eurasia proposed by global kinematic models, whereas it is compatible with the alternative Africa-Eurasia kinematics and plate mosaic proposed by [1].

Investigation of Seismotectonics and Seismicity in South of Caspian Sea

In this study region,those fault-lines with northwestern -southeastern trend are the oldest structures of the region,whose formation is believed to date back to orogeny phase of Katanga.Besides the mentioned trend the northwestern southwestern trends also had outcrop in the studied region and recent seismic data indicate that in the studied region the active presence of North Firouzabad transpressional fault-line causes formation of fault scarps and very deep valleys

Seismotectonics and consequences of the 1930s large earthquakes in eastern Mazandaran,north of Iran

Early in the 1930 s,two relatively large earthquakes(Kosout,magnitude 6.8,and Talarrud,magnitude 5.8)shook the eastern Mazandaran,northern Iran.Despite the historical and instrumental seismic activity of the eastern region of Mazandaran,little is known about the status of seismotectonics and consequences of these earthquakes.This paper presents a compilation of available data from early reports of these earthquakes with new structural,geomorphic and local data on the effects of this earthquake,especially co-seismic landslides and liquefaction,to assess the seismotectonics and probable causative faults of the earthquakes.It is proposed that the close times of occurrence of two earthquakes might be due to local loading or triggering effect of the first earthquake on the second one.Like many other instrumental earthquakes in the Central Alborz,it is difficult to find the exact causative faults of important earthquakes,however the Qadikola,Chachkam or North Alborz Fault have the potential of producing Kosout earthquake and the Lalehband fault is more promising for Talarrud earthquake.Additionally,the structural complexity of the area is also discussed in the form of a hybrid tectonic model.In this model,the boundary zone of thick-skinned and active thin-skinned domains has more structural complexity than outer portions.Konim-Badeleh Shahvar pop-up structure is bounded by major faults with thick-skinned deformation style.The role of older inherited fault structures and their interaction with low-slope Neogene thrusts driven from north to south by crustal tectonics and deformation is discussed.Co-seismic landslides and rock falls have great potential to be investigated in the Alborz Range for identification of prehistoric earthquakes.

Review on study of seismotectonics in China

This paper reviews briefly the progresses made during the last four years (1999~2002) in study of seismotectonics in China, especially appraises the achievements in the fields of the crustal and upper mantles structure, the active faults and tectonic setting of large earthquakes, the crustal deformation, and the numerical simulation. Most earthquakes occurred in China belong to continental earthquakes. Therefore, Chinese seismologists pay more attention to the continental earthquakes. Based on improvements of the observation systems in China during the ninth Five-Year Plan, the studies on seismotectonics have achieved great progresses.

Geothermic activity and seismotectonics in the altitude of the Tibetan plateau

In the present analysis on the relationships among the depth of lithosphere brittle fracture, seismotectonics and geothermal anomalous active in Tibetan plateau were investigated using the seismic dada from ISC and Chinese seismic net and geothermal data. The results suggest that the region of anomalously geothermal activity almost coincides with that of the normal faulting type earthquake. The geothermal anomaly activity region coincides spatially with that of the events deeper than 60 km as well as. The normal faulting earthquakes may be mainly tectonic activity regimes until 110 km deep in the thermal anomaly region. The strike directions of events are likely the N-S direction, coinciding with the strike of the thermal anomaly active belts. The earthquakes align along the normal faults and faulted-depression zone with the N-S direction. The thermal anomaly activity also distributes along the faulted-depression zone. Many events deeper than 60 km exist in the anomalously geothermal activity region in the plateau. Events extend to bottom of the lithosphere of 110 km from the surface, like columnar seismic crowd. The lithosphere extends along the E-W direction due to the E-W extensional stress in the central and southern Tibetan plateau, altitude of the plateau. The t6nsional stress in the E-W results in the lithosphere fractures and the normal faults striking N-S direction, grabens and faulted-depression zones. Thermal material from the asthenosphere wells upward to the surface along deep seismic fractures and faults through the thick crust. The anomalously thermal activities are attributable to the upwelling thermal material from the mantle in the altitude of Tibetan plateau.

Interplate coupling and seismotectonics under the fore-arc regions of Japan

Three-dimensional P-and S-wave velocities（vP,vS）,Poisson＇s ratio（σ）,crack-density（ε） and bulk-sound velocity（vφ） structures along the slab upper boundary beneath the fore-arc regions were determined using a large number of high-quality P-wave and S-wave arrival times from both onshore and offshore earthquakes in Japan.The velocity and Poisson＇s ratio images provide a compelling evidence for a highly hydrated and serpentinized fore-arc mantle and fluid-bearing anomalous low velocity and high Poisson＇s ratio associated with slab dehydration under the fore-arc areas.Most great thrust earthquakes（M〉7.5） occurred at or close to the high-velocity areas along the slab interface under the fore-arc areas,suggesting strong interplate coupling（asperities） with slab subduction.On the other hand,prominent low-velocity anomalies were revealed along the slab upper boundary,which may reflect weak coupled or decoupled patches（aseismicity） of the plates due to serpentinization of the fore-arc mantle wedge.The crack-density and bulk-sound velocity images,calculated from the corresponding velocity models,indicate that the interplate coupling in northeastern Japan is different from that under central and southwestern Japan owing to differences between the tectonic backgrounds of the subduction system,such as the geological age,thermal regime and dipping angle of the oceanic plates.A comparison between fluid-related anomalies of Japan,Cascadia,Chile,and Costa Rica subduction zones suggests that seismic mantle may be common in fore-arc settings and these reflect similar 3-D seismic structures relatively to fluid liberating processes.We consider that the fluid-bearing anomalies along the interface of the subducting slab,attributing to processes such as slab dehydration and serpentinization of the fore-arc mantle,are mainly contributed to the interplate coupling and the repeated generation of the great thrust earthquakes under the fore-arc regions in Japan.

Seismicity in Major Seismotectonic Provinces of Iran

Seismicity parameters,i.e.,seismic activity rate,X,the so-called Gutenberg-Richter b value(orβ),and maximum possible magnitude,Mmax,for major seismotectonic provinces of Iran are estimated through the application of Kijko and SellevolPs uncertainty models.The uncertainty models facilitated the estimation of seismic activity parameters from incomplete and uncertain data files in the catalog of earthquakes in major seismotectonic provinces of Iran.Zagros has the highest seismic activity rate,and is characterized by the occurrence of mainly small-and mid-sized earthquakes.Kopeh Dagh has the lowest activity rate but is characterized by a greater occurrence of major earthquakes.However,the Makran and Alborz-Azarbayejan seismotectonic provinces are most likely the regions which are capable of generating great earthquakes.

Deep Geoelectric Structure and Its Relation to Seismotectonics of the Saurashtra Region, Western India

The Saurashtra Peninsula and its adjoining regions covered by Deccan Traps (DT) are one of the important parts of the Indian continental lithosphere with interesting geophysical anomalies, tectono-thermal evolution since the Mesozoic times. Knowledge on the deep structure beneath these formations is important for understanding the seismo-tectonics of the region. This region has gained importance after the occurrence of a major earthquake (7.9 Mw) north of Saurashtra, namely Bhuj earthquake during 2001. It is also observed that Saurashtra region has experienced several earthquake swarms limited to small regions. Accordingly, it is important to investigate the deep structure of the Saurashtra region from seismotectonics point of view. In our study, magnetotelluric results of the deep crustal structure along five NS oriented traverses are presented. The five traverses are—Halvad-Rohisa (HR), Sapar-Iswaria (SI), Mota Dahinsara-Bamagadh (MB), Jodiya-Jamkhandorna (JJ) and VavBeraja-Devda (VD). The total length of these 5 traverses is about 670 km. The derived deep geoelectric structure is also compared and correlated with gravity data to get more confidence on the derived results. The 2-D geoelectric section has delineated anomalous high conductivity structure at places extending from 20 km to about 40 km. From the spatial correlation, anomalous high conductive structure derived from MT data with intense localized seismic activity is an interesting observation. In the present study, the results of magnetotelluric studies along with other geophysical results are presented.

Seismotectonic Environment for Zhangbei-Shangyi Earthquake and Characteristics of Macroscopic Damage

The regional seismotectonic environment for the Zhangbei- Shangyi earthquake is described, and in combination with the distribution of macroscopic seismic intensity, source mechanism solution, and interpretation of lineaments on satellite images, the seismogenic structure for the earthquake and possible seismogenic fault are discussed in this paper. It is suggested that the Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake is a result of the latest movement along the northwestern termination of the Zhangjiakou-Penglai fault zone and we should pay serious attention to the future trend of seismic activity along this fault zone.

Tectonic and Seismotectonics Survey in Behbahan

Among the natural hazards, destructive earthquakes are the most common cause of casualties and financial losses and human deaths several times more in developing countries than developed countries. By increasing urbanization and construction process, construction activities and because Behbahan is a new city and is located near active faults, earthquake risk is increasing and will have disastrous results. Historical data also indicate destructive earthquakes in 1052 and 1085 with the magnitudes of 8.6 and 8.5 on the Richter scale which destroyed Arjan and killed many people. Due to frequent earthquakes in Behbahan as well as numerous small and large faults around it, the city has high seismic potential. So locating new developments and constructions should be more accurate.

Source mechanism of strong aftershocks (M_s≥5.6) of the 2008/05/12 Wenchuan earthquake and the implication for seismotectonics

Dozens of 】M5, hundreds of 】M4, and much more 】M3 aftershocks occurred after the 2008/05/12 Wenchuan earthquake, which were well recorded by permanent and portable seismic stations. After relocated with P arrival, the 】M3 aftershocks show two trends of distribution, with most of the aftershocks located along the north-east strike consistent with Longmenshan fault system, yet there is a north-west trend around the epicenter. It seems that substantially more aftershocks occur in regions with crystalline bedrocks. Then we collected waveform data from National Digital Seismograph Network and regional seismograph network of China, and employed 'Cut and Paste' method to obtain focal mechanisms and depths of the big aftershocks (M≥5.6). While most of those aftershocks show thrust mechanism, there are some strike slip earthquakes in the northern-most end of the rupture. Focal mechanisms show that the events located on the southern part of central Beichuan-Yingxiu Fault (BY) are mainly thrust earthquakes, which is consistent with initial mechanism of the main shock rupture. In the north part the aftershocks along the BY are also dominated by thrust slip, which is quite different from the right slip rupture of the main shock. Around Qingchuan-Pingwu Fault, the focal mechanisms are dominated by right-slip rupture with large depths (~18 km). So we suspected that in the north part the main shock might rupture on two faults: Beichuan Fault and Qingchuan-Pingwu Fault. The complex pattern of aftershock mechanisms argues for presence of a complicated fault system in the Longmenshan area.