A Weighted Combination Forecasting Model for Power Load Based on Forecasting Model Selection and Fuzzy Scale Joint Evaluation

To solve the medium and long term power load forecasting problem,the combination forecasting method is further expanded and a weighted combination forecasting model for power load is put forward.This model is divided into two stages which are forecasting model selection and weighted combination forecasting.Based on Markov chain conversion and cloud model,the forecasting model selection is implanted and several outstanding models are selected for the combination forecasting.For the weighted combination forecasting,a fuzzy scale joint evaluation method is proposed to determine the weight of selected forecasting model.The percentage error and mean absolute percentage error of weighted combination forecasting result of the power consumption in a certain area of China are 0.7439%and 0.3198%,respectively,while the maximum values of these two indexes of single forecasting models are 5.2278%and 1.9497%.It shows that the forecasting indexes of proposed model are improved significantly compared with the single forecasting models.

激光选区熔化Al-Mg-Sc-Zr合金各向组织与损伤容限性能

研究激光选区熔化(selective laser melting,SLM)技术成形Al-Mg-Sc-Zr合金材料不同取向的显微组织特征、拉伸和损伤容限性能。结果表明:YZ截面为细小的等轴晶和粗大的柱状晶组成的双峰组织,XY截面由细小的等轴晶组成;0°和90°方向屈服强度、抗拉强度均超过500 MPa,各向异性较小,但堆积层间存在的未熔合缺陷使得90°方向断裂伸长率明显低于0°方向;0°和90°CT试样K_(IC)分别为21.41 MPa·m^(1/2)和20.89 MPa·m^(1/2),在柱状晶区域裂纹扩展阻抗低,导致90°CT试样K_(IC)稍小;显微组织和缺陷是影响裂纹扩展性能各向异性的主要因素,在近门槛区未熔合缺陷起主导作用,当裂纹面平行于水平方向时裂纹扩展速率更快;在稳态扩展区显微组织的影响起主导作用,当裂纹面平行于水平方向时为穿晶断裂,裂纹扩展阻抗较高,裂纹扩展速率较低。

Size selectivity of combined square and diamond mesh codends of shrimp beam trawl for banded scad Caranx(Atule)kalla in the northern South China Sea

The shrimp beam trawl fishery in the northern South China Sea is characterized by high by-catch and poor selectivity problems.Among by-catch species,banded scad(Caranx(Atule)kalla)is economically the most important one.The aim of this study is to improve the selective properties of codends for banded scad.Size selectivity of 2 traditional diamond mesh codends,with mesh size 25 and 30 mm(defined as D25 and D30,respectively),and 4 new combined square and diamond mesh codends,with25 mm square-mesh and 25 mm diamond-mesh(S25+D25),30 mm square-mesh and 25 mm diamondmesh(S30+D25),35 mm square-mesh and 25 mm diamond-mesh(S35+D25),and 35 mm square-mesh and18 mm diamond-mesh(S35+D18),were tested for banded scad in shrimp beam trawl fishery of the South China Sea.A total of 54 valid hauls were finished using the covered codend method,and 5750 banded scad were caught.Selective parameters were obtained using the logistic equation with the maximum likelihood method,by incorporating the between-haul variation.The results show that the present minimum mesh size for shrimp beam trawl in the South China Sea,25-mm diamond mesh size,is insufficient to release immature banded scad.The S35+D25 codend is proved to be the most eff ective codend to release immature banded scad,and its 50%retention length(L _(50))is larger than the minimum landing size(MLS=63.5 mm)of banded scad.However,the 95%confidence intervals of L _(50) overlap among the three combined mesh codends,the S25+D25,S30+D25 and S35+D25 codend.For a sustainable exploitation of banded scad,larger mesh sizes are suggested to be investigated for the combined mesh codends.

Mutant Selection Windows of Azalomycin F5a in Combination with Vitamin K3 against Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus

Azalomycin F5a, a 36-membered macrocyclic lactone isolated from several streptomyces strains, presented remarkable anti-methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) activities. To improve its anti-MRSA potential and to evaluate the probability of MRSA resistant to it before development, the anti-MRSA activities of azalomycin F5a in combination with vitamin K3 were first evaluated using checkerboard assay. Then the minimal concentration inhibiting colony formation by 99% (MIC99) and mutant prevention concentration (MPC) of azalomycin F5a alone and in combination with vitamin K3 against MRSA were determined using agar plates with linear antimicrobial concentration decrease. The fractional inhibitory concentration indexes (FICIs) of 0.25 - 0.50 showed the synergistic activity of azalomycin F5a in combination with vitamin K3. The mutant selection windows (MSWs, MIC99-MPC) of azalomycin F5a alone against MRSA tested were 2.07 - 6.40 μg/mL, and the MPCs of azalomycin F5a in combination with vitamin K3 against MRSA tested were 1.60 - 3.20 μg/mL. These indicated that the MPCs of azalomycin F5a in combination could drop down to below its MIC99 alone. According to the hypothesis of MSW, the narrower MSWs of azalomycin F5a alone, even closed MSWs in combination with vitamin K3, together with their synergistic anti-MRSA activities, indicated that azalomycin F5a had a good potential to develop as a new antimicrobial agent.

Optimizing selection of bridge raft based on fuzzy matter-element model and combination weighting

It's a necessary selection to support the maneuver across Yangtze River by floating bridge constructed by portable steel bridge and civilian ships.It is a comprehensive index for the scheme of bridge raft,containing a variety of technical factors and uncertainties.The optimization is the selection in the constructing time,quantity of equipments and man power.Based on the calculation result of bridge rafts,an evaluating system is established,consisting of index of spacing between interior bays,raft length,truss numbers,operation difficulty and maximal bending stress.A fuzzy matter element model of optimizing selection of bridge rafts was built up by combining quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis.The method of combination weighting was used to calculate the value of weights index to reduce the subjective randomness.The sequence of schemes and the optimization result were gained finally based on euclid approach degree.The application result shows that it is simple and practical.

Selection of surgical methods for thoracic ossification of ligamentum flavum combined with cervical spondylotic myelopathy

Objective To investigate the difference between different surgical methods for thoracic ossification of ligamentum flavum(OLF) combined with cervical spondylotic myelopathy(CSM) . Methods From January 1991 to January 2003,56 cases

Genomic prediction of the performance of hybrids and the combining abilities for line by tester trials in maize

The two most important activities in maize breeding are the development of inbred lines with high values of general combining ability(GCA)and specific combining ability(SCA),and the identification of hybrids with high yield potentials.Genomic selection(GS)is a promising genomic tool to perform selection on the untested breeding material based on the genomic estimated breeding values estimated from the genomic prediction(GP).In this study,GP analyses were carried out to estimate the performance of hybrids,GCA,and SCA for grain yield(GY)in three maize line-by-tester trials,where all the material was phenotyped in 10 to 11 multiple-location trials and genotyped with a mid-density molecular marker platform.Results showed that the prediction abilities for the performance of hybrids ranged from 0.59 to0.81 across all trials in the model including the additive effect of lines and testers.In the model including both additive and non-additive effects,the prediction abilities for the performance of hybrids were improved and ranged from 0.64 to 0.86 across all trials.The prediction abilities of the GCA for GY were low,ranging between-0.14 and 0.13 across all trials in the model including only inbred lines;the prediction abilities of the GCA for GY were improved and ranged from 0.49 to 0.55 across all trials in the model including both inbred lines and testers,while the prediction abilities of the SCA for GY were negative across all trials.The prediction abilities for GY between testers varied from-0.66 to 0.82;the performance of hybrids between testers is difficult to predict.GS offers the opportunity to predict the performance of new hybrids and the GCA of new inbred lines based on the molecular marker information,the total breeding cost could be reduced dramatically by phenotyping fewer multiple-location trials.

Comparisons of Three Recurrent Selection Methods in the Improvement of Maize Populations

The maize population Csyn 4 was improved for three cycles with three recurrent selection methods MS1, MS1-HS, and MHSRRS in northern China. A total of 40 NC Ⅱ testcrosses were made by four testers with Csyn 4 and 10 improved populations, which were evaluated in four environments in the cropping season of 2005. Analysis of variance indicated a significant progress （P〈 0.05） in yield and other chief agronomic traits in the improved populations and testcrosses, demonstrating that the three recurrent selection methods were effective for increasing grain yield of testcrosses and improvement of general combining ability in maize population. The average grain yield increase of population Csyn 4 in MS1, MS1-HS, and MHSRRS recurrent selections was 266.7 kg ha^-1 （5.3%）, 288.0 kg ha^-1 （5.7%）, and 231.3 kg ha^-1 （4.6%） per cycle, while the grain yield of S 1 progeny of population for Csyn 4 was increased by 420.0 kg ha^-1 （10.9%）, 376.0 kg ha^-1 （9.8%）, and 414.7 kg ha^-1 （10.8%） per cycle in MS1, MS1-HS, and MHSRRS recurrent selections, respectively. Linear responses （b） in the MS1, MS1-HS, and MHSRRS recurrent selections were the same as the realized responses of the selection （G） for grain yield increase of Csyn 4 and S1 progeny of the populations. The grain yield of testcrosses increased by 3.3-5.2% on average per cycle. The value of heterosis did not display any differences amongst the different cycles of selections. The GCA for yield component traits of population Csyn 4 was improved significantly by means of three selection methods, whereas the GCA for plant height, ear height, days to silking, and days to pollen did not show significant increase in the recurrent selections. GCA for the number of tassel branches were decreased in the selections, while GCA for the number of plant leaves were increased, but the difference was not significant.

Design of multi-band frequency selective surfaces using multi-periodicity combined elements

Traditional multi-band frequency selective surface （FSS） approaches are hard to achieve a perfect resonance response in a wide band due to the limit of the onset grating lobe frequency determined by the array. To solve this problem, an approach of combining elements in different period to build a hybrid array is presented. The results of series of numerical simulation show that multi-periodicity combined element FSS, which are designed using this approach, usually have much weaker grating lobes than the traditional FSS. Furthermore, their frequency response can be well predicted through the properties of their member element FSS. A prediction method for estimating the degree of expected grating lobe energy loss in designing multi-band FSS using this approach is provided.

Marker-assisted Selection of ZmC_4Ppc in Rice Breeding and Yield Trait Performances of Advanced Lines

The full-length of intact Zea mays gene for phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase gene （ZmC4Ppc） is 6 781 bp. The products of PCR for this gene were not clear with poor repeatability, resulting in that it was difficult for marker-assisted selection （MAS） both in rice and maize. For selecting the markers for MAS, sequences presented only in maize rather than in rice were identified by BLAST, and used for primer design using Primer Premier 5.0. A pair of specific primer termed MRpc （Forward： 5＇ AAGCAGGGAAGCGAGACG 3＇, Reverse： 5＇ GATTGCCGCCAGCAGTAG 3＇） was used for selection of transformed rice, and ZmC4Ppc could be highly and constitutively expressed at each tested developmental stages in the transformed rice selected by using MRpc. Thus, MRpc was used for MAS of progenies carrying ZmC4Ppc gene in rice and some restorer lines with ZmC4Ppc （e.g. FPM881） derived from ZmC4Ppc-transformed Kitaake backcrossed with a restorer line Shuhui 881 were obtained. The analyses on genetic background, PEPCase activity, net photosynthetic rate, general combining ability （GCA） and specific combining ability （SCA） of FPM881 showed that similarity of genetic background reached above 95%, the PEPCase and net photosynthetic rate were higher than those of the control, and some of the progenies carrying ZmC4Ppc gene had better GCA and SCA for grain yield per plant, number of panicles per plant, and 1000-grain weight than those of the control. This suggested that the introduction of maize ZmC4Ppc gene via MAS and its stable expression could increase grain yield of rice and would likely provide a pathway for rice varietal improvement.

选区激光熔化成形Al-Ce-Sc-Zr合金的工艺优化与组织性能

以气雾化Al-10Ce-0.4Sc-0.2Zr(质量分数)预合金粉末为原料,采用选区激光熔化(selective laser melting,SLM)法制备Al-Ce-Sc-Zr合金。通过光学显微镜和室温拉伸实验等研究激光功率和扫描速度对合金致密度与力学性能的影响,优化工艺参数;并采用X射线衍射仪、扫描电镜、透射电镜等研究最佳工艺参数下SLM成形的合金共晶组织形貌、物相组成和晶粒尺寸等。结果表明,激光功率和扫描速度跟合金致密度和力学性能之间呈非线性关系;随激光能量密度升高,合金致密度和力学性能先上升后下降。在激光功率为350 W、扫描速度为2000 mm/s的最优参数下成形的Al-Ce-Sc-Zr合金,致密度达到99.92%,抗拉强度和屈服强度分别为(441±3)MPa和(370±18)MPa,伸长率为(9.4±0.9)%。SLM成形Al-Ce-Sc-Zr合金具有柱状晶和等轴晶交替分布的晶粒组织,晶粒取向较随机,不存在明显的织构。合金由α-Al和Al_(11)Ce_(3)相组成,Sc、Zr原子主要以固溶的形式存在于α-Al中,共晶Al_(11)Ce_(3)相为不规则的条带状,平均宽度为35 nm,排列成不连续的复杂网络,共晶组织十分精细,且分布均匀。

Sc和Zr联合添加对ZL114A合金组织和力学性能的影响

利用偏光显微镜、差示扫描量热仪(DSC)、扫描电镜(SEM)和维氏硬度仪研究了Sc和Zr联合添加对ZL114A合金组织和力学性能的影响。结果表明,对于利用Al-Ti-B细化晶粒的ZL114A合金,联合添加Sc和Zr后,初生α-Al晶粒的形核温度由619.2℃升至621.6℃,且其核心数量增多,形核更容易,晶粒进一步细化,晶粒尺寸由319.2μm减至287.8μm,减小了9.8%。联合添加Sc和Zr对ZL114A合金共晶Si几乎无影响,ZL114A+Sc+Zr合金力学性能变化主要归因于初生α-Al晶粒尺寸变化。联合添加Sc和Zr后,由于晶粒细化,ZL114A合金的硬度提高。

基于SCS的多星联合诱导式欺骗检测算法

欺骗式干扰严重威胁卫星导航接收机的信息安全,其中诱导式欺骗干扰可以在不令目标接收机失锁的状态下,隐蔽地夺取跟踪环路的控制权,加大了检测欺骗的难度。此外,多径干扰可能会造成基于信号质量监测(SQM)的欺骗检测算法虚警。文中提出一种基于S曲线过零点斜率(SCS)的多星联合欺骗检测算法,通过检验接收机遭受欺骗攻击时不同方向卫星的一致性,区分多径干扰与欺骗攻击。分别使用美国德州大学实采欺骗信号数据集(TEXBAT)与卫星信号模拟器生成的含有多径干扰的卫星信号进行实验分析。实验结果表明,所提出算法检测诱导式欺骗攻击时响应迅速,欺骗检测性能相较于三种传统的SQM算法更优,同时对于多径干扰有较强的鲁棒性。

A Cooperative Diversity Analysis of Two User Mobile Communication System with Maximal Ratio Combining

Cooperative communication is going to play a vital role in the next generation wireless networks. In this paper we derive the expression for symbol error probability (SEP) of a two-user cooperative diversity system, where two users cooperate through the decode-and-forward (DF) relaying with binary phase-shift keying (BPSK) modulation in a flat Rayleigh fading environment. We compare the computational results obtained by the SEP expression with the simulation results using maximal-ratio combining (MRC), equal-gain combining (EGC) and selection combining (SC) techniques. Numerical results show the performance of a cooperative diversity system with maximal-ratio combining is giving better results compared to SC and EGC techniques.

Applying Neural Network withGenetic Algorithm and FuzzySelection Models to Select Equipmentsfor Fully-Mechanized Coal Mining

According to the typical engineering samples, a neural net work model with genetic algorithm to optimize weight values is put forward to forecast the productivities and efficiencies of mining faces. By this model we can obtain the possible achievements of available equipment combinations under certain geological situations of fully-mechanized coal mining faces. Then theory of fuzzy selection is applied to evaluate the performance of each equipment combination. By detailed empirical analysis, this model integrates the functions of forecasting mining faces' achievements and selecting optimal equipment combination and is helpful to the decision of equipment combination for fully-mechanized coal mining.

Relay Selection and Power Allocation in Amplify-and-Forward Cognitive Radio Systems Based on Spectrum Sharing

In this paper, we consider a spectrum sharing scheme that is a joint optimization of relay selection and power allocation at the secondary transmitter, which aims to achieve the maximum possible throughput for the secondary user. This paper considers the scenario where the primary user is incapable of supporting its target signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). More especially, the secondary transmitter tries to assist the primary user with achieving its target SNR by cooperative amplify-and-forward (AF) relaying with two-phase. By exhaustive search for all candidate secondary transmitters, an optimal secondary transmitter can be selected, which not only can satisfy the primary user’s target SNR, but also maximize the secondary user’s throughput. The optimal secondary transmitter acts as a relay for the primary user by allocating a part of its power to amplify-and-forward the primary signal over the primary user’s licensed spectrum bands. At the same time, as a reward, the optimal secondary transmitter uses the remaining power to transmit its own signal over the remaining licensed spectrum bands. Thus, the secondary user obtains the spectrum access opportunities. Besides, there is no interference between the primary user and the secondary user. We study the joint optimization of relay selection and power allocation such that the secondary user’s throughput is maximized on the condition that it satisfies the primary user’s target SNR. From the simulation, it is shown that the joint optimization of relay selection and power allocation provides a significant throughput gain compared with random relay selection with optimal power allocation (OPA) and random relay selection with water-filling power allocation (WPA). Moreover, the simulation results also shown that our spectrum sharing scheme obtains the win-win solution for the primary system and the secondary system.

扫描速度对选区激光熔化高强Al-Mg-Sc-Zr合金组织与性能的影响

采用选区激光熔化(SLM)技术在不同扫描速度工艺条件下制备了高强Al-Mg-Sc-Zr合金,采用了光学显微镜(OM)、扫描电子显微镜(SEM)、室温拉伸实验、室温摩擦磨损实验等方法,研究了激光扫描速度对合金微观组织和力学性能的影响。结果表明:当激光功率不变,扫描速度在1250~1850 mm/s时,随着扫描速度从1250 mm/s升至1850 mm/s,合金致密度和力学性能均呈现先升高后降低的趋势。当扫描速度达到1850 mm/s时,由于能量密度低导致粉末无法充分熔化,层间润湿不充足,形成大量不规则孔隙,降低了材料力学性能。选区激光熔化成形合金在不同扫描速度下均可以完成冶金结合,且致密度均高于98.9%,当扫描速度为1450 mm/s时,合金成形性能达到最优,致密度为99.87%,其屈服强度、抗拉强度和断后延伸率分别为379 MPa、420 MPa和17.0%,摩擦磨损实验表明其磨损量和磨损速度均为最低,耐磨性能显著优于其他参数。

Performance Analysis of Downlink MIMO WCDMA Systems Using Antenna Selection in Transmitter and MRC Plus LDD in Receiver over Correlated Nakagami-Fading Channels

In this paper bit error rate (BER) performance is analyzed for multiple input-multiple output (MIMO) communications systems using antenna selection in the transmitter, maximal ratio combining (MRC) and linear de-correlating detector (LDD) in the receiver in wide band code division multiple access (WCDMA) downlink channels with correlated Nakagami fading. The MRC maximizes signal to noise ratio of the received signal, then the LDD cancels out multiple access interference (MAI). Theoretical results are validated using computer simulations. Moreover, a pilot based estimation method is proposed to jointly estimate the channel gains and the rows of the LDD operator. Simulation results show that using this proposed method, diversity order is maintained in the receiver. Furthermore, our analysis shows the spectral efficiency degradation due to the pilot based strategy is negligible.

热处理对激光选区熔化Al-Mg-Sc-Zr合金组织及性能影响

针对激光选区熔化Al-Mg-Sc-Zr合金强度提升以及与塑性合理匹配等问题,采用致密度最优工艺优化策略,获取了激光选区熔化成形Al-Mg-Sc-Zr最佳参数,并进行了时效与固溶热处理,研究了其对微观组织和力学性能的影响。结果表明:Al-Mg-Sc-Zr在激光功率为360~370 W、扫描速度为800~1000 mm/s、扫描间距为100μm及铺粉层厚为30μm时,致密度和组织缺陷最佳;时效或固溶热处理后,材料组织呈现交替分布细晶区和粗晶区,发生析出相增加强化,屈服与抗拉强度较沉积态得到提升;时效热处理相较固溶热处理,材料晶粒无明显长大,325℃/4 h时效热处理综合力学性能最佳,屈服强度为548 MPa、延伸率为11%;改变Al-Mg-Sc-Zr激光选区熔化成形材料热处理制度,可对其合金晶粒尺寸、析出相尺寸和密度进行控制,实现强度与塑性的合理匹配。

Always-optimally-coordinated candidate selection algorithm for peer-to-peer files sharing system in mobile self-organized networks

In order to improve the performance of peer-to-peer files sharing system under mobile distributed en-vironments,a novel always-optimally-coordinated(AOC)criterion and corresponding candidate selectionalgorithm are proposed in this paper.Compared with the traditional min-hops criterion,the new approachintroduces a fuzzy knowledge combination theory to investigate several important factors that influence filestransfer success rate and efficiency .Whereas the min-hops based protocols only ask the nearest candidatepeer for desired files,the selection algorithm based on AOC comprehensively considers users' preferencesand network requirements with flexible balancing rules.Furthermore,its advantage also expresses in theindependence of specified resource discovering protocols,allowing for scalability.The simulation resultsshow that when using the AOC based peer selection algorithm,system performance is much better thanthe min-hops scheme,with files successful transfer rate improved more than 50% and transfer time re-duced at least 20%.