Spatio-temporal Variation Characteristics of Extreme Climate Events and Their Teleconnections to Large-scale Ocean-atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Huaihe River Basin,China During 1959–2019

Huaihe River Basin(HRB) is located in China’s north-south climatic transition zone,which is very sensitive to global climate change.Based on the daily maximum temperature,minimum temperature,and precipitation data of 40 meteorological stations and nine monthly large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices data during 1959–2019,we present an assessment of the spatial and temporal variations of extreme temperature and precipitation events in the HRB using nine extreme climate indices,and analyze the teleconnection relationship between extreme climate indices and large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices.The results show that warm extreme indices show a significant(P < 0.05) increasing trend,while cold extreme indices(except for cold spell duration) and diurnal temperature range(DTR) show a significant decreasing trend.Furthermore,all extreme temperature indices show significant mutations during 1959-2019.Spatially,a stronger warming trend occurs in eastern HRB than western HRB,while maximum 5-d precipitation(Rx5day) and rainstorm days(R25) show an increasing trend in the southern,central,and northwestern regions of HRB.Arctic oscillation(AO),Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO),and East Atlantic/Western Russia(EA/WR) have a stronger correlation with extreme climate indices compared to other circulation indices.AO and AMO(EA/WR) exhibit a significant(P < 0.05) negative(positive)correlation with frost days and diurnal temperature range.Extreme warm events are strongly correlated with the variability of AMO and EA/WR in most parts of HRB,while extreme cold events are closely related to the variability of AO and AMO in eastern HRB.In contrast,AMO,AO,and EA/WR show limited impacts on extreme precipitation events in most parts of HRB.

基于改进D-S证据理论选择性集成的边坡稳定性评价

针对边坡稳定性预测算法选择困难和单个模型误判风险大的问题,建立了基于改进D-S证据理论选择性集成的边坡稳定性评价方法,为边坡稳定性初步评价提供方法依据。基于边坡稳定性主要影响因素,通过极限平衡法构建了大型边坡稳定性评价数据集。引入基于边界距离最小化的基学习器选择技术,提升选择性集成模型的泛化能力。提出了改进D-S证据理论融合基学习器信息,降低了选择性集成模型决策过程中的不确定性和模糊性,解决了现有边坡稳定性评价模型易误判和结果非一致性问题。仿真试验结果表明:改进D-S证据理论选择性集成方法无需复杂的数值建模与计算迭代过程,可直接客观地评判边坡稳定性状态,并从信息论角度给出边坡失稳概率。对比传统机器学习方法,该方法有效提高了边坡稳定性的预测准确率,同时降低了预测结果的不确定性,实现了速度快、精度高、稳健性好的广域尺度边坡稳定性评价。

基于外部气相沉积的S+C+L波段低色散斜率大有效面积非零色散位移光纤的设计与制备

针对现有光纤无法满足宽带光密集波分复用系统传输和S+C+L波段粗波分复用的要求,设计了一种具有中心凹陷的三角形芯+环形的折射率剖面,利用外部气相沉积工艺制备了一种非零色散位移光纤,并通过调整第一芯层的相对折射率和第二芯层与第一芯层的半径比,探究了其对光纤衰减、色散斜率和有效面积等参数的影响。研究发现,当第一芯层的相对折射率逐渐增大且第二芯层与第一芯层半径比逐渐减小时,零色散波长和有效面积逐渐减小。当第一芯层的相对折射率在0.52%~0.53%,芯层半径比在2.6~2.7时,光纤的有效面积接近70μm^(2),零色散波长在1420 nm附近,在1550 nm波段的色散系数大于8 ps·nm^(-1)·km^(-1),色散斜率为0.059 ps·nm^(-2)·km^(-1),可以较好地抑制传输过程中光非线性效应,满足长途干线网与城域网的使用要求。

基于S-SAR边坡雷达的滑坡形变监测分析研究

露天矿山边坡安全是矿山安全的保障,边坡表面变形监测数据分析有助于获得准确的滑坡时间预测,因此,滑坡形变监测分析研究是研究的重点。本文对比分析了两个矿山滑坡时的合成孔径边坡雷达变形监测数据,获得了在滑坡时边坡表面变形监测特征曲线,进而建立了变形特征曲线与滑坡之间的关系。通过分析发现了边坡在发生破坏性变形之前会有多次异常的加速变形现象,这一点与斋藤法的三阶段变形相符。边坡在滑坡前并不会呈加速—匀速—再加速的变形规律,而是会重复多次加速—匀速—加速循环的变形现象。

Sen’s斜率估计与Mann-Kendall法在设备运行趋势分析中的应用

基于某企业设备运行时轴承状态自上次检修以来的历史数据,采用Sen’s斜率估计与Mann-Kendall检验相结合的方法对其运行趋势进行分析,并与一元线性回归法分析结果相比较。结果表明,Sen’s斜率估计与Mann-Kendall法相结合,适用于设备运行状态的趋势分析,可在基于状态监测的预防性维修工作中推广应用。

基于Sen+Mann-Kendall的北京植被变化趋势分析

基于1998年到2011年长时序SPOTVEGETATION归一化植被指数数据,采用一元线性回归斜率变化法和Sen+Mann-Kendall法对北京地区的植被变化趋势做了时空分析。实验结果表明:在1998年到2011年期间,北京市城区、延庆县、怀柔区和平谷区的植被变化趋势显著上升;而植被恶化区则集中在北京市城区北部、东部和南部,并以马蹄形包围北京市区。两种方法实验结果在植被上升(下降)区域具有一致性。同时,Sen+Mann-Kendall法以其良好的抗噪性和对数据分布无要求性可广泛应用到其他区域的植被变化趋势分析中。

GENERAL RELIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR TWO DIMENSIONAL SLOPES

The reliability analysis, based on the reliability index method, of two dimensional slopes is generalized by taking Sarma′s acceleration as the performance function. That is to say, a general expression of the performance function is given under various kinds of slice methods, even under various shapes of slice partition, beyond the traditional vertical slice method. A simple example shows explicitly the relationship of four commonly used slice methods in the slope reliability analysis. It is also found that the results of the reliability analysis are basically consistent with those of the stability analysis based on Sarma′s method.

Q-factor estimation in CMP gather and the continuous spectral ratio slope method

The attenuation factor or quality factor(Q-factor or Q) has been used to measure the energy attenuation of seismic waves propagating in underground media. Many methods are used to estimate the Q-factor. We propose a method to calculate the Q-factor based on the prestack Q-factor inversion and the generalized S-transform. The proposed method specifies a standard primary wavelet and calculates the cumulative Q-factors; then, it finds the interlaminar Q-factors using the relation between Q and offset(QVO) and the Dix formula. The proposed method is alternative to methods that calculate interlaminar Q-factors after horizon picking. Because the frequency spectrum of each horizon can be extracted continuously on a 2D time–frequency spectrum, the method is called the continuous spectral ratio slope(CSRS) method. Compared with the other Q-inversion methods, the method offers nearly effortless computations and stability, and has mathematical and physical significance. We use numerical modeling to verify the feasibility of the method and apply it to real data from an oilfield in Ahdeb, Iraq. The results suggest that the resolution and spatial stability of the Q-profile are optimal and contain abundant interlaminar information that is extremely helpful in making lithology and fluid predictions.

A numerical study on the effect of tidal flat's slope on tidal dynamics in the Xiangshan Bay, China

The Xiangshan Bay is a semi-enclosed and narrow bay, which is characterized by large scale tidal flats and has been historically utilized through coastal construction and aquaculture engineering. The hydrodynamic model using the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model（FVCOM） was constructed to examine the changes of tidal dynamics due to the variation of tidal flat slopes. According to the model results, a decreased slope of a tidal flat would amplify the M2 tidal amplitude and delay the M2 tidal phase in the inner harbor, due to an increased tidal prism, and vice versa. The amplitude of the main shallow-water tide M4 would be amplified/dampened in the entire bay due to the changed bottom friction, if the tidal flat＇s slope were reduced/increased at the Tie inlet. The phase was advanced. The change of a tidal flat＇s slope at the Tie inlet had greater impacts on tidal amplitude,phase and duration asymmetry, than that at the Xihu inlet. The impact of changes of the tidal flat slope at the Xihu inlet was small and was constrained locally. Changes in the tidal flats＇ slopes at the Tie and Xihu inlets changed the tidal duration asymmetry, residual current and tidal energy via modulating tides. The ebb dominance decreased when the tidal flat＇s slope at the Tie inlet was changed. Decreased/increased ebb dominance occurred when the tidal flat＇s slope was reduced/increased at the Xihu inlet. The residual current and tidal energy density was amplified/dampened and more/less tidal energy was dissipated, with reduced/increased slope at both of the inlets. The findings in this study are instructive to coastal engineering and estuarine management.

基于磁感传感器SEN-S的电子指南针系统

本文详细地阐述了磁感传感器SEN-SL以及其驱动芯片PNI11096的使用方法。简要地介绍了确定方向的基本原理,同时给出了指南针系统的硬件设计原理图以及系统软件设计的流程图。

Finite element analysis of slope stability by expanding the mobilized principal stress Mohr's circles-Development, encoding and validation

In recent years,finite element analysis is increasingly being proposed in slope stability problems as a competitive method to traditional limit equilibrium methods(LEMs)which are known for their inherent deficiencies.However,the application of finite element method(FEM)to slope stability as a strength reduction method(SRM)or as finite element limit analysis(FELA)is not always a success for the drawbacks that characterize both methods.To increase the performance of finite element analysis in this problem,a new approach is proposed in this paper.It consists in gradually expanding the mobilized stress Mohr’s circles until the soil failure occurs according to a prescribed non-convergence criterion.The present approach called stress deviator increasing method(SDIM)is considered rigorous for three main reasons.Firstly,it preserves the definition of the factor of safety(FOS)as the ratio of soil shear strength to the mobilized shear stress.Secondly,it maintains the progressive development of shear stress resulting from the increase in the principal stress deviator on the same plane,on which the shear strength takes place.Thirdly,by introducing the concept of equivalent stress loading,the resulting trial stresses are checked against the violation of the actual yield criterion formed with the real strength parameters rather than those reduced by a trial factor.The new numerical procedure was encoded in a Fortran computer code called S^(4)DINA and verified by several examples.Comparisons with other numerical methods such as the SRM,gravity increasing method(GIM)or even FELA by assessing both the FOS and contours of equivalent plastic strains showed promising results.

Assessment of the Elastic-Wave Well Treatment in Oil-Bearing Clastic and Carbonate Reservoirs

A set of techniques for well treatment aimed to enhance oil recovery are considered in the present study.These are based on the application of elastic waves of various types(dilation-wave,vibro-wave,or other acoustically induced effects).In such a context,a new technique is proposed to predict the effectiveness of the elastic-wave well treatment using the rank distribution according to Zipf’s law.It is revealed that,when the results of elastic wave well treatments are analyzed,groups of wells exploiting various geological deposits can differ in terms of their slope coefficients and free members.As the slope coefficient increases,the average increase in the well oil production rate(after the well treatment)becomes larger.An equation is obtained accordingly for estimating the slope coefficient in the Zipf’s equation from the frequency of the elastic wave.The obtained results demonstrate the applicability of the Zipf’s law in the analysis of the technological efficiency of elastic-wave well treatment methods.

1966—2018年岷江流域极端气温事件时空变化特征

在全球变暖背景下,极端气候事件问题逐渐显著,岷江流域作为川滇生态屏障区的重要组成部分,受气候变化的影响较大,研究该流域极端气候事件时空变化规律,能为未来气象灾害防治等提供科学依据。基于1966—2018年岷江流域62个气象站点的气温资料,选用“气候变化检测和指标”专家组所确定的16个极端气温指数,采用一元回归方程、Sen斜率、反距离权重空间插值法和Mann-Kendall检验法分析极端气温指数的时空变化规律。结果显示:岷江流域极端气温事件存在明显的时间变化特征,并且变化趋势在空间分布上存在一定的差异性。结果表明:(1)岷江流域极端高温事件显著增加,极端低温事件显著减少;极端气温指数的突变年份主要集中在1990—2000年左右,其中极端低温指数均在突变后呈现显著下降趋势,极端高温指数、极值指数、其他指数中除了日较差指数,均在突变后呈显著上升趋势;(2)极端低温指数在流域内大部分地区呈下降趋势,平均年变化率为-0.98 d·(10a)^(-1);极端高温指数、极值指数和作物生长期指数大部分地区呈上升趋势,其中极端高温指数上升趋势在流域内呈西低东高的分布,作物生长期指数在流域内呈北高南低的分布;日较差指数在流域上游地区呈下降趋势,中下游地区呈上升趋势。

基于拉丁方抽样及K-S检验的边坡可靠性分析

边坡稳定性是受复杂因素影响下的多维非线性问题,大多数边坡工程都存在着不确定性。大量试验和工程实践证明,影响边坡状态的因素中有许多具有显著的随机性,参数具有变异性。从概率的角度出发,结合实际工程,对于原始数据采用K-S检验法进行假设验证,确定参数变量的分布类型,克服了人为假设的误差,并分别采用Latin方抽样(LHS)法和Monte Carlo法对参数进行抽样,得到状态函数值,确定安全系数及可靠指标,对比两种抽样方法,基于LHS法模拟次数要少于Monte Carlo法,而且破坏概率的收敛性也优于Monte Carlo法,明显节省了计算时间。

基于BP神经网络和R/S分析的隧道仰坡沉降变形预报预测

隧道洞口处多为软弱岩或浮土,稳定性差,地表位移监测成为判断洞口稳定性的重要手段,因此仰坡沉降变形预测显得格外重要。鉴于仰坡沉降变形具有很强的非线性特征,选取BP神经网络对仰坡的沉降变形进行预测,并验证其可行性,进而利用BP神经网络扩大沉降变形监测的样本。在此基础上,再利用R/S分析对新的监测样本进行重标极差分析,分别得到隧道仰坡沉降-时间序列和变形速率-时间序列的Hurst指数,并结合两项指数确定了隧道仰坡沉降变形的趋势,为判断仰坡的稳定性及治理提供了有力依据。

东北三省NDVI时空变化特征及对气候因子的响应

中国东北地区是全球气候变化最敏感的区域之一,了解植被的时空变化及对气候因子的响应对东北地区生态环境的构建和评价具有重要意义,对全球气候变化的响应也具有重要的指示作用。基于MODIS归一化差值植被指数(NDVI),利用Theil-Sen斜率估计、Mann-Kendall检验和Hurst指数开展2000—2021年东北三省NDVI时空演变特征及未来变化趋势研究,并通过相关分析方法研究NDVI对气候因子的响应。结果表明:2000—2021年NDVI整体均值为0.391,季节上呈现出春冬季低、夏秋季高的变化趋势,空间上呈现出西低东高的变化趋势;2000—2021年,NDVI年均增长率为0.003 a~(-1),而2010—2021年,NDVI整体呈现极显著上升趋势,年均增长率为0.006a~(-1);东北三省86.93%面积的NDVI在未来可持续增长,表明未来植被生长态势较好;相关分析表明,NDVI与气候因子在空间尺度上存在依赖性,气温与NDVI有更好的相关性;在东北三省大部分地区,气温和降水均对NDVI变化有正贡献,且两者的贡献相当,但在空间上存在着差异。

边坡稳定性中BISHOP法的解析计算

针对简化Bishop法，采用精确积分代替有限条块的求和，获得了边坡安全系数的解析表达式．这样只需通过迭代求解一代数方程就可获得边坡的安全系数，避免了有限条分法中计算繁杂以及在试算时初值选取不当可能存在不收敛的缺点．此外，利用该解析算式可容易获得边坡的最危险圆弧滑裂面和最小安全系数．在同样的边坡条件下，简化Bishop法的安全系数一般比瑞典条分法高6％～7％．

基于HGA-ANN驱动边坡稳定评价T-S型模糊推理系统

边坡工程的分析评价会因人脑在思维判断上存在的模糊性,而导致整个分析和设计过程带有一定的模糊不确定性。因此,边坡工程实际上是一个动态的、模糊的、开放的复杂非线性系统,传统的分析方法有时难以对复杂边坡的稳定性做出符合实际的评价。模糊方法和人工神经网络(ANN)都已分别用于边坡稳定性评价中,此2种方法具有很多优点,但也存在各自的局限性。采用人工神经网络(ANN)模型构建T-S型模糊推理系统,利用混合遗传算法(HGA)训练ANN模型,得到了基于混合遗传算法人工神经网络驱动的T-S型模糊推理系统模型,探讨了该模型在边坡稳定性评价中的应用。根据广泛收集的80个边坡实例,建立了一个由HGA-ANN驱动的评价边坡稳定性的T-S型模糊推理系统模型。对实际边坡预测结果表明,该模型的预测精度明显高于目前同类方法。

考虑水流路径长度的S型曲线超高段纵坡研究

雨天公路S型曲线超高缓和路段易形成积水,影响行车安全。以力学为基础,运用有限差分,建立了超高渐变段的水流路径长度与纵坡的关系模型;考虑车辆发生滑水的危险状态,得到水流路径控制长度。以公路单路拱S型曲线为研究对象,对3组不同车道数和7种不同纵坡工况下的±2%超高渐变段的水流路径长度进行分析。结果表明:纵坡由0.5%增加到6%,水流路径长度平均增大2.83倍,纵坡越大,水流路径越长;当纵坡大于4%时,不同车道的水流路径都超过了限定值。以水流路径长度为控制指标,给出了不同车道数S型曲线平缓超高路段最大纵坡建议值。