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Efficient slope reliability and sensitivity analysis using quantile-based first-order second-moment method 被引量:1
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作者 Zhiyong Yang Chengchuan Yin +2 位作者 Xueyou Li Shuihua Jiang Dianqing Li 《Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第10期4192-4203,共12页
This paper introduces a novel approach for parameter sensitivity evaluation and efficient slope reliability analysis based on quantile-based first-order second-moment method(QFOSM).The core principles of the QFOSM are... This paper introduces a novel approach for parameter sensitivity evaluation and efficient slope reliability analysis based on quantile-based first-order second-moment method(QFOSM).The core principles of the QFOSM are elucidated geometrically from the perspective of expanding ellipsoids.Based on this geometric interpretation,the QFOSM is further extended to estimate sensitivity indices and assess the significance of various uncertain parameters involved in the slope system.The proposed method has the advantage of computational simplicity,akin to the conventional first-order second-moment method(FOSM),while providing estimation accuracy close to that of the first-order reliability method(FORM).Its performance is demonstrated with a numerical example and three slope examples.The results show that the proposed method can efficiently estimate the slope reliability and simultaneously evaluate the sensitivity of the uncertain parameters.The proposed method does not involve complex optimization or iteration required by the FORM.It can provide a valuable complement to the existing approximate reliability analysis methods,offering rapid sensitivity evaluation and slope reliability analysis. 展开更多
关键词 Slope reliability Sensitivity analysis QUANTILE First-order second-moment method(FOSM) First-order reliability method(FORM)
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Analysis of sensitivity to hydrate blockage risk in natural gas gathering pipeline
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作者 Ao-Yang Zhang Meng Cai +4 位作者 Na Wei Hai-Tao Li Chao Zhang Jun Pei Xin-Wei Wang 《Petroleum Science》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第4期2723-2733,共11页
During the operational process of natural gas gathering and transmission pipelines,the formation of hydrates is highly probable,leading to uncontrolled movement and aggregation of hydrates.The continuous migration and... During the operational process of natural gas gathering and transmission pipelines,the formation of hydrates is highly probable,leading to uncontrolled movement and aggregation of hydrates.The continuous migration and accumulation of hydrates further contribute to the obstruction of natural gas pipelines,resulting in production reduction,shutdowns,and pressure build-ups.Consequently,a cascade of risks is prone to occur.To address this issue,this study focuses on the operational process of natural gas gathering and transmission pipelines,where a comprehensive framework is established.This framework includes theoretical models for pipeline temperature distribution,pipeline pressure distribution,multiphase flow within the pipeline,hydrate blockage,and numerical solution methods.By analyzing the influence of inlet temperature,inlet pressure,and terminal pressure on hydrate formation within the pipeline,the sensitivity patterns of hydrate blockage risks are derived.The research indicates that reducing inlet pressure and terminal pressure could lead to a decreased maximum hydrate formation rate,potentially mitigating pipeline blockage during natural gas transportation.Furthermore,an increase in inlet temperature and terminal pressure,and a decrease in inlet pressure,results in a displacement of the most probable location for hydrate blockage towards the terminal station.However,it is crucial to note that operating under low-pressure conditions significantly elevates energy consumption within the gathering system,contradicting the operational goal of energy efficiency and reduction of energy consumption.Consequently,for high-pressure gathering pipelines,measures such as raising the inlet temperature or employing inhibitors,electrical heat tracing,and thermal insulation should be adopted to prevent hydrate formation during natural gas transportation.Moreover,considering abnormal conditions such as gas well production and pipeline network shutdowns,which could potentially trigger hydrate formation,the installation of methanol injection connectors remains necessary to ensure production safety. 展开更多
关键词 Natural gas hydrates Gathering pipeline Temperature variation Hydrate formation rate Sensitivity analysis
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Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of in-vessel phenomena under severe accident mitigation strategy based on ISAA-SAUP program
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作者 Hao Yang Ji-Shen Li +2 位作者 Zhi-Ran Zhang Bin Zhang Jian-Qiang Shan 《Nuclear Science and Techniques》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第1期108-123,共16页
The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce... The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce considerable uncertainty.Therefore,in recent years,the field of severe accidents has shifted its focus toward applying uncertainty analysis methods to quantify uncertainty in safety assessment programs,known as“best estimate plus uncertainty(BEPU).”This approach aids in enhancing our comprehension of these programs and their further development and improvement.This study concentrates on a third-generation pressurized water reactor equipped with advanced active and passive mitigation strategies.Through an Integrated Severe Accident Analysis Program(ISAA),numerical modeling and uncertainty analysis were conducted on severe accidents resulting from large break loss of coolant accidents.Seventeen uncertainty parameters of the ISAA program were meticulously screened.Using Wilks'formula,the developed uncertainty program code,SAUP,was employed to carry out Latin hypercube sampling,while ISAA was employed to execute batch calculations.Statistical analysis was then conducted on two figures of merit,namely hydrogen generation and the release of fission products within the pressure vessel.Uncertainty calculations revealed that hydrogen production and the fraction of fission product released exhibited a normal distribution,ranging from 182.784 to 330.664 kg and from 15.6 to 84.3%,respectively.The ratio of hydrogen production to reactor thermal power fell within the range of 0.0578–0.105.A sensitivity analysis was performed for uncertain input parameters,revealing significant correlations between the failure temperature of the cladding oxide layer,maximum melt flow rate,size of the particulate debris,and porosity of the debris with both hydrogen generation and the release of fission products. 展开更多
关键词 Gen-III PWR Severe accident mitigation Wilks’formula HYDROGEN Fission products Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
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On an isotropic porous solid cylinder:the analytical solution and sensitivity analysis of the pressure
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作者 H.ASGHARI L.MILLER +1 位作者 R.PENTA J.MERODIO 《Applied Mathematics and Mechanics(English Edition)》 SCIE EI CSCD 2024年第9期1499-1522,共24页
Within this work,we perform a sensitivity analysis to determine the influence of the material input parameters on the pressure in an isotropic porous solid cylinder.We provide a step-by-step guide to obtain the analyt... Within this work,we perform a sensitivity analysis to determine the influence of the material input parameters on the pressure in an isotropic porous solid cylinder.We provide a step-by-step guide to obtain the analytical solution for a porous isotropic elastic cylinder in terms of the pressure,stresses,and elastic displacement.We obtain the solution by performing a Laplace transform on the governing equations,which are those of Biot's poroelasticity in cylindrical polar coordinates.We enforce radial boundary conditions and obtain the solution in the Laplace transformed domain before reverting back to the time domain.The sensitivity analysis is then carried out,considering only the derived pressure solution.This analysis finds that the time t,Biot's modulus M,and Poisson's ratio ν have the highest influence on the pressure whereas the initial value of pressure P_(0) plays a very little role. 展开更多
关键词 sensitivity analysis Laplace transform cylindrical polar coordinate Biot's modulus CYLINDER
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Explainable Neural Network for Sensitivity Analysis of Lithium-ion Battery Smart Production
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作者 Kailong Liu Qiao Peng +2 位作者 Yuhang Liu Naxin Cui Chenghui Zhang 《IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica》 SCIE EI CSCD 2024年第9期1944-1953,共10页
Battery production is crucial for determining the quality of electrode,which in turn affects the manufactured battery performance.As battery production is complicated with strongly coupled intermediate and control par... Battery production is crucial for determining the quality of electrode,which in turn affects the manufactured battery performance.As battery production is complicated with strongly coupled intermediate and control parameters,an efficient solution that can perform a reliable sensitivity analysis of the production terms of interest and forecast key battery properties in the early production phase is urgently required.This paper performs detailed sensitivity analysis of key production terms on determining the properties of manufactured battery electrode via advanced data-driven modelling.To be specific,an explainable neural network named generalized additive model with structured interaction(GAM-SI)is designed to predict two key battery properties,including electrode mass loading and porosity,while the effects of four early production terms on manufactured batteries are explained and analysed.The experimental results reveal that the proposed method is able to accurately predict battery electrode properties in the mixing and coating stages.In addition,the importance ratio ranking,global interpretation and local interpretation of both the main effects and pairwise interactions can be effectively visualized by the designed neural network.Due to the merits of interpretability,the proposed GAM-SI can help engineers gain important insights for understanding complicated production behavior,further benefitting smart battery production. 展开更多
关键词 Battery management battery manufacturing data science explainable artificial intelligence sensitivity analysis
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A Bayesian multi-model inference methodology for imprecise momentindependent global sensitivity analysis of rock structures
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作者 Akshay Kumar Gaurav Tiwari 《Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第3期840-859,共20页
Traditional global sensitivity analysis(GSA)neglects the epistemic uncertainties associated with the probabilistic characteristics(i.e.type of distribution type and its parameters)of input rock properties emanating du... Traditional global sensitivity analysis(GSA)neglects the epistemic uncertainties associated with the probabilistic characteristics(i.e.type of distribution type and its parameters)of input rock properties emanating due to the small size of datasets while mapping the relative importance of properties to the model response.This paper proposes an augmented Bayesian multi-model inference(BMMI)coupled with GSA methodology(BMMI-GSA)to address this issue by estimating the imprecision in the momentindependent sensitivity indices of rock structures arising from the small size of input data.The methodology employs BMMI to quantify the epistemic uncertainties associated with model type and parameters of input properties.The estimated uncertainties are propagated in estimating imprecision in moment-independent Borgonovo’s indices by employing a reweighting approach on candidate probabilistic models.The proposed methodology is showcased for a rock slope prone to stress-controlled failure in the Himalayan region of India.The proposed methodology was superior to the conventional GSA(neglects all epistemic uncertainties)and Bayesian coupled GSA(B-GSA)(neglects model uncertainty)due to its capability to incorporate the uncertainties in both model type and parameters of properties.Imprecise Borgonovo’s indices estimated via proposed methodology provide the confidence intervals of the sensitivity indices instead of their fixed-point estimates,which makes the user more informed in the data collection efforts.Analyses performed with the varying sample sizes suggested that the uncertainties in sensitivity indices reduce significantly with the increasing sample sizes.The accurate importance ranking of properties was only possible via samples of large sizes.Further,the impact of the prior knowledge in terms of prior ranges and distributions was significant;hence,any related assumption should be made carefully. 展开更多
关键词 Bayesian inference Multi-model inference Statistical uncertainty Global sensitivity analysis(GSA) Borgonovo’s indices Limited data
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Numerical Analysis of Steady Smoldering of Biomass Rods
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作者 Zhao Wentao Yu Guangxin +3 位作者 Zhang Yi Wang Youtang Zhou Dan He Fang 《燃烧科学与技术》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第5期507-519,共13页
Understanding the steady mechanism of biomass smoldering plays a great role in the utilization of smoldering technology.In this study numerical analysis of steady smoldering of biomass rods was performed.A two-dimensi... Understanding the steady mechanism of biomass smoldering plays a great role in the utilization of smoldering technology.In this study numerical analysis of steady smoldering of biomass rods was performed.A two-dimensional(2D)steady model taking into account both char oxidation and pyrolysis was developed on the basis of a calculated propagation velocity according to empirical correlation.The model was validated against the smoldering experiment of biomass rods under natural conditions,and the maximum error was smaller than 31%.Parameter sensitivity analysis found that propagation velocity decreases significantly while oxidation area and pyrolysis zone increase significantly with the increasing diameter of rod fuel. 展开更多
关键词 steady smoldering biomass rod numerical analysis 2D steady model sensitivity analysis
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Numerical Analysis of Explosion Characteristics of Vent Gas From 18650 LiFePO_(4) Batteries With Different States of Charge
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作者 Shi-Lin Wang Xu Gong +5 位作者 Li-Na Liu Yi-Tong Li Chen-Yu Zhang Le-Jun Xu Xu-Ning Feng Huai-Bin Wang 《电化学(中英文)》 CAS 北大核心 2024年第8期28-35,共8页
The combustion and explosion characteristics of lithium-ion battery vent gas is a key factor in determining the fire hazard of lithium-ion batteries.Investigating the combustion and explosion hazards of lithium-ion ba... The combustion and explosion characteristics of lithium-ion battery vent gas is a key factor in determining the fire hazard of lithium-ion batteries.Investigating the combustion and explosion hazards of lithium-ion batteries vent gas can provide guidance for rescue and protection in explosion accidents in energy storage stations and new energy vehicles,thereby promoting the application and development of lithium-ion batteries.Based on this understanding and combined with previous research on gas production from lithium-ion batteries,this article conducted a study on the combustion and explosion risks of vent gas from thermal runaway of 18650 LFP batteries with different states of charge(SOCs).The explosion limit of mixed gases affected by carbon dioxide inert gas is calculated through the“elimination”method,and the Chemkin-Pro software is used to numerically simulate the laminar flame speed and adiabatic flame temperature of the battery vent gas.And the concentration of free radicals and sensitivity coefficients of major elementary reactions in the system are analyzed to comprehensively evaluate the combustion explosion hazard of battery vent gas.The study found that the 100%SOC battery has the lowest explosion limit of the vent gas.The inhibitory elementary reaction sensitivity coefficient in the reaction system is lower and the concentration of free radicals is higher.Therefore,it has the maximum laminar flame speed and adiabatic flame temperature.The combustion and explosion hazard of battery vent gas increases with the increase of SOC,and the risk of explosion is the greatest and most harmful when SOC reaches 100%.However,the related hazards decrease to varying degrees with overcharging of the battery.This article provides a feasible method for analyzing the combustion mechanism of vent gas from lithium-ion batteries,revealing the impact of SOC on the hazardousness of battery vent gas.It provides references for the safety of storage and transportation of lithium-ion batteries,safety protection of energy storage stations,and the selection of related fire extinguishing agents. 展开更多
关键词 Combustion and explosion characteristics Explosion limit Laminar flame speed Adiabatic flame temperature Sensitivity analysis
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Calculations and Sensitivity Analysis of Chlorine-,NO_(x)-,and Bromine-Depleting Cycles of Stratospheric Ozone
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作者 Ibraheem Alelmi Sen Nieh 《Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering(B)》 CAS 2024年第2期53-69,共17页
This paper presents an engineering system approach using a 2D model of conservation of mass to study the dynamics of ozone and concerned chemical species in the stratosphere.By considering all fourteen photolysis,ozon... This paper presents an engineering system approach using a 2D model of conservation of mass to study the dynamics of ozone and concerned chemical species in the stratosphere.By considering all fourteen photolysis,ozone-generating,and-depleting chemical reactions,the model calculated the transient,spatial changes of ozone under different physical-chemical-radiative conditions.Validation against the measured data demonstrated good accuracy,close match of our model with the observed ozone concentrations at both 20°S and 90°N locations.The deviation in the average concentration was less than 1% and in ozone profiles less than 17%.The impacts of various chlorine-(Cl),nitrogen oxides-(NO_(x)),and bromine-(Br)depleting cycles on ozone concentrations and distribution were investigated.The chlorine catalytic depleting cycle was found to exhibit the most significant impact on ozone dynamics,confirming the key role of chlorine in the problem of ozone depletion.Sensitivity analysis was conducted with levels of 25%,50%,100%,200%,and 400% of the baseline value.The combined cycles(Cl+NO_(x)+Br)showed the most significant influence on ozone behavior.The total ozone abundance above the South Pole could decrease by a small 3%,from 281 DU(Dubson Units)to 273 DU for the 25% level,or by a huge thinning of 60%to 114 DU for the 400% concentration level.When the level of chlorine gases increased beyond 200%,it would cause ozone depletion to a level of ozone hole(below 220 DU).The 2D Ozone Model presented in this paper demonstrates robustness,convenience,efficiency,and executability for analyzing complex ozone phenomena in the stratosphere. 展开更多
关键词 Ozone depletion 2-D model CHLORINE BROMINE nitrogen oxides sensitivity analysis total ozone abundance DU
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Seismic response comparison and sensitivity analysis of pile foundation in liquefiable and non-liquefiable soils 被引量:6
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作者 Jia Kemin Xu Chengshun +3 位作者 Du Xiuli Cui Chunyi Dou Pengfei Song Jia 《Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration》 SCIE EI CSCD 2023年第1期87-104,共18页
Case history investigations have shown that pile foundations are more critically damaged in liquefiable soils than non-liquefiable soils.This study examines the differences in seismic response of pile foundations in l... Case history investigations have shown that pile foundations are more critically damaged in liquefiable soils than non-liquefiable soils.This study examines the differences in seismic response of pile foundations in liquefiable and non-liquefiable soils and their sensitivity to numerical model parameters.A two-dimensional finite element(FE)model is developed to simulate the experiment of a single pile foundation centrifuge in liquefiable soil subjected to earthquake motions and is validated against real-world test results.The differences in soil-pile seismic response of liquefiable and non-liquefiable soils are explored.Specifically,the first-order second-moment method(FOSM)is used for sensitivity analysis of the seismic response.The results show significant differences in seismic response for a soil-pile system between liquefiable and non-liquefiable soil.The seismic responses are found to be significantly larger in liquefiable soil than in non-liquefiable soil.Moreover,the pile bending moment was mainly affected by the kinematic effect in liquefiable soil,while the inertial effect was more significant in non-liquefiable soil.The controlling parameters of seismic response were PGA,soil density,and friction angle in liquefiable soil,while the pile bending moment was mainly controlled by PGA,the friction angle of soil,and shear modulus of loose sand in non-liquefiable soil. 展开更多
关键词 liquefiable non-liquefiable finite element analysis pile foundation seismic response sensitivity analysis
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Sensitivity Analysis of Multi-phase Seepage Parameters Affecting the Clayey Silt Hydrate Reservoir Productivity in the Shenhu Area,South China Sea 被引量:2
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作者 LI Yaobin XU Tianfu +3 位作者 XIN Xin ZANG Yingqi ZHU Huixing YUAN Yilong 《Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition)》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第6期1787-1800,共14页
Natural gas hydrate(NGH)is an important future resource for the 21st century and a strategic resource with potential for commercial development in the third energy transition.It is of great significance to accurately ... Natural gas hydrate(NGH)is an important future resource for the 21st century and a strategic resource with potential for commercial development in the third energy transition.It is of great significance to accurately predict the productivity of hydrate-bearing sediments(HBS).The multi-phase seepage parameters of HBS include permeability,porosity,which is closely related to permeability,and hydrate saturation,which has a direct impact on hydrate content.Existing research has shown that these multi-phase seepage parameters have a great impact on HBS productivity.Permeability directly affects the transmission of pressure-drop and discharge of methane gas,porosity and initial hydrate saturation affect the amount of hydrate decomposition and transmission process of pressure-drop,and also indirectly affect temperature variation of the reservoir.Considering the spatial heterogeneity of multi-phase seepage parameters,a depressurization production model with layered heterogeneity is established based on the clayey silt hydrate reservoir at W11 station in the Shenhu Sea area of the South China Sea.Tough+Hydrate software was used to calculate the production model;the process of gas production and seepage parameter evolution under different multi-phase seepage conditions were obtained.A sensitivity analysis of the parameters affecting the reservoir productivity was conducted so that:(a)a HBS model with layered heterogeneity can better describe the transmission process of pressure and thermal compensation mechanism of hydrate reservoir;(b)considering the multi-phase seepage parameter heterogeneity,the influence degrees of the parameters on HBS productivity were permeability,porosity and initial hydrate saturation,in order from large to small,and the influence of permeability was significantly greater than that of other parameters;(c)the production potential of the clayey silt reservoir should not only be determined by hydrate content or seepage capacity,but also by the comprehensive effect of the two;and(d)time scales need to be considered when studying the effects of changes in multi-phase seepage parameters on HBS productivity. 展开更多
关键词 energy resources natural gas hydrate sensitivity analysis seepage parameters clayey silt reservoir Pearl River Mouth Basin
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Numerical modeling and parametric sensitivity analysis of heat transfer and two-phase oil and water flow characteristics in horizontal and inclined flowlines using OpenFOAM 被引量:1
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作者 Nsidibe Sunday Abdelhakim Settar +1 位作者 Khaled Chetehouna Nicolas Gascoin 《Petroleum Science》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2023年第2期1183-1199,共17页
Estimating the oil-water temperatures in flowlines is challenging especially in deepwater and ultra-deepwater offshore applications where issues of flow assurance and dramatic heat transfer are likely to occur due to ... Estimating the oil-water temperatures in flowlines is challenging especially in deepwater and ultra-deepwater offshore applications where issues of flow assurance and dramatic heat transfer are likely to occur due to the temperature difference between the fluids and the surroundings. Heat transfer analysis is very important for the prediction and prevention of deposits in oil and water flowlines, which could impede the flow and give rise to huge financial losses. Therefore, a 3D mathematical model of oil-water Newtonian flow under non-isothermal conditions is established to explore the complex mechanisms of the two-phase oil-water transportation and heat transfer in different flowline inclinations. In this work, a non-isothermal two-phase flow model is first modified and then implemented in the InterFoam solver by introducing the energy equation using OpenFOAM® code. The Low Reynolds Number (LRN) k-ε turbulence model is utilized to resolve the turbulence phenomena within the oil and water mixtures. The flow patterns and the local heat transfer coefficients (HTC) for two-phase oil-water flow at different flowlines inclinations (0°, +4°, +7°) are validated by the experimental literature results and the relative errors are also compared. Global sensitivity analysis is then conducted to determine the effect of the different parameters on the performance of the produced two-phase hydrocarbon systems for effective subsea fluid transportation. Thereafter, HTC and flow patterns for oil-water flows at downward inclinations of 4°, and 7° can be predicted by the models. The velocity distribution, pressure gradient, liquid holdup, and temperature variation at the flowline cross-sections are simulated and analyzed in detail. Consequently, the numerical model can be generally applied to compute the global properties of the fluid and other operating parameters that are beneficial in the management of two-phase oil-water transportation. 展开更多
关键词 Flow assurance Flow pattern Heat transfer Flowlines Two-phase flow Global sensitivity analysis
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Seismic Liquefaction Resistance Based on Strain Energy Concept Considering Fine Content Value Effect and Performance Parametric Sensitivity Analysis 被引量:1
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作者 Nima Pirhadi Xusheng Wan +3 位作者 Jianguo Lu Jilei Hu Mahmood Ahmad Farzaneh Tahmoorian 《Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences》 SCIE EI 2023年第4期733-754,共22页
Liquefaction is one of the most destructive phenomena caused by earthquakes,which has been studied in the issues of potential,triggering and hazard analysis.The strain energy approach is a common method to investigate... Liquefaction is one of the most destructive phenomena caused by earthquakes,which has been studied in the issues of potential,triggering and hazard analysis.The strain energy approach is a common method to investigate liquefaction potential.In this study,two Artificial Neural Network(ANN)models were developed to estimate the liquefaction resistance of sandy soil based on the capacity strain energy concept(W)by using laboratory test data.A large database was collected from the literature.One group of the dataset was utilized for validating the process in order to prevent overtraining the presented model.To investigate the complex influence of fine content(FC)on liquefaction resistance,according to previous studies,the second database was arranged by samples with FC of less than 28%and was used to train the second ANN model.Then,two presented ANN models in this study,in addition to four extra available models,were applied to an additional 20 new samples for comparing their results to show the capability and accuracy of the presented models herein.Furthermore,a parametric sensitivity analysis was performed through Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS)to evaluate the effects of parameters and their uncertainties on the liquefaction resistance of soils.According to the results,the developed models provide a higher accuracy prediction performance than the previously publishedmodels.The sensitivity analysis illustrated that the uncertainties of grading parameters significantly affect the liquefaction resistance of soils. 展开更多
关键词 Liquefaction resistance capacity strain energy artificial neural network sensitivity analysis Monte Carlo Simulation
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Prediction and sensitivity analysis of the surface quality in Ni60/WC coatings 被引量:1
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作者 杨江淮 练国富 +1 位作者 陈昌荣 冯美艳 《China Welding》 CAS 2023年第1期35-45,共11页
For laser cladding a large temperature gradient easily weakened the surface quality by generating cracks and irregular coating surfaces,which in turn affected the bearing capacity and corrosion resistance of coatings ... For laser cladding a large temperature gradient easily weakened the surface quality by generating cracks and irregular coating surfaces,which in turn affected the bearing capacity and corrosion resistance of coatings in the rapid heating and cooling process.The response surface methodology(RSM)was used to predict coating cracks by changing the powder ratio,energy density,and preheating temperature,which obtained the relevant mathematical model.After that,the sensitivity of the crack length to process parameters was analyzed based on the sensitivity analysis method.The effect of Ni60/WC composite powder process parameters on the surface quality was revealed in laser cladding.The crack length first decreased and then increased,and the Smooth decreased with the increased powder ratio.The crack length and Smooth increased with the increased energy density.The crack length decreased and Smooth increased with the increased preheating temperature.Sensitivity analysis showed that the crack length and Smooth were the most sensitive to the powder ratio.Therefore,the process parameters were reasonably selected to control the surface quality.The mathematical model and sensitivity analysis method in the work could improve the surface quality,which provided a theoretical basis for the prediction and control of laser cladding cracks. 展开更多
关键词 laser cladding Ni60/WC surface quality mathematical model sensitivity analysis
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A New Sensitivity Analysis Approach Using Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations and Its Preliminary Application
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作者 Qiujie REN Mu MU +1 位作者 Guodong SUN Qiang WANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第2期285-304,共20页
Simulations and predictions using numerical models show considerable uncertainties,and parameter uncertainty is one of the most important sources.It is impractical to improve the simulation and prediction abilities by... Simulations and predictions using numerical models show considerable uncertainties,and parameter uncertainty is one of the most important sources.It is impractical to improve the simulation and prediction abilities by reducing the uncertainties of all parameters.Therefore,identifying the sensitive parameters or parameter combinations is crucial.This study proposes a novel approach:conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations sensitivity analysis(CNOPSA)method.The CNOPSA method fully considers the nonlinear synergistic effects of parameters in the whole parameter space and quantitatively estimates the maximum effects of parameter uncertainties,prone to extreme events.Results of the analytical g-function test indicate that the CNOPSA method can effectively identify the sensitivity of variables.Numerical results of the theoretical five-variable grassland ecosystem model show that the maximum influence of the simulated wilted biomass caused by parameter uncertainty can be estimated and computed by employing the CNOPSA method.The identified sensitive parameters can easily change the simulation or prediction of the wilted biomass,which affects the transformation of the grassland state in the grassland ecosystem.The variance-based approach may underestimate the parameter sensitivity because it only considers the influence of limited parameter samples from a statistical view.This study verifies that the CNOPSA method is effective and feasible for exploring the important and sensitive physical parameters or parameter combinations in numerical models. 展开更多
关键词 physical parameters parameter uncertainty sensitivity analysis nonlinear optimization land-surface process
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Sensitivity analysis and probability modelling of the structural response of a single-layer reticulated dome subjected to an external blast loading
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作者 Shao-bo Qi Guang-yan Huang +1 位作者 Xu-dong Zhi Feng Fan 《Defence Technology(防务技术)》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2023年第5期152-163,共12页
The structural response of a single-layer reticulated dome to external explosions is shaped by many variables,and the associated uncertainties imply non-deterministic results.Existing deterministic methods for predict... The structural response of a single-layer reticulated dome to external explosions is shaped by many variables,and the associated uncertainties imply non-deterministic results.Existing deterministic methods for predicting the consequences of specific explosions do not account for these uncertainties.Therefore,the impact of the uncertainties associated with these input variables on the structures’response needs to be studied and quantified.In this study,a parametric uncertainty analysis was conducted first.Then,local and global sensitivity analyses were carried out to identify the drivers of the structural dynamic response.A probabilistic structural response model was established based on sensitive variables and a reasonable sample size.Furthermore,some deterministic empirical methods for explosion-resistance design,including the plane blast load model of CONWEP,the curved blast load model under the 50%assurance level,and the 20%mass-increased method,were used for evaluating their reliability.The results of the analyses revealed that the structural response of a single-layer reticulated dome to an external blast loading is lognormally distributed.Evidently,the MB0.5 method based on the curved reflector load model yielded results with a relatively stable assurance rate and reliability,but CONWEP did not;thus,the 1.2MB0.5 method can be used for making high-confidence simple predictions.In addition,the results indicated that the structural response is very sensitive to the explosion parameters.Based on these results,it is suggested that for explosion proofing,setting up a defensive barrier is more effective than structural strengthening. 展开更多
关键词 Dome structure Blast load uncertainty Sensitivity analysis Probabilistic investigation Reliability evaluation
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Sensitivity analysis of factors affecting gravity dam anti-sliding stability along a foundation surface using Sobol method
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作者 Bo Xu Shi-da Wang 《Water Science and Engineering》 EI CAS CSCD 2023年第4期399-407,共9页
The anti-sliding stability of a gravity dam along its foundation surface is a key problem in the design of gravity dams.In this study,a sensitivity analysis framework was proposed for investigating the factors affecti... The anti-sliding stability of a gravity dam along its foundation surface is a key problem in the design of gravity dams.In this study,a sensitivity analysis framework was proposed for investigating the factors affecting gravity dam anti-sliding stability along the foundation surface.According to the design specifications,the loads and factors affecting the stability of a gravity dam were comprehensively selected.Afterwards,the sensitivity of the factors was preliminarily analyzed using the Sobol method with Latin hypercube sampling.Then,the results of the sensitivity analysis were verified with those obtained using the Garson method.Finally,the effects of different sampling methods,probability distribution types of factor samples,and ranges of factor values on the analysis results were evaluated.A case study of a typical gravity dam in Yunnan Province of China showed that the dominant factors affecting the gravity dam anti-sliding stability were the anti-shear cohesion,upstream and downstream water levels,anti-shear friction coefficient,uplift pressure reduction coefficient,concrete density,and silt height.Choice of sampling methods showed no significant effect,but the probability distribution type and the range of factor values greatly affected the analysis results.Therefore,these two elements should be sufficiently considered to improve the reliability of the dam anti-sliding stability analysis. 展开更多
关键词 Gravity dam Anti-sliding stability Sensitivity analysis Sobol method Latin hypercube sampling
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HVAC Optimal Control Based on the Sensitivity Analysis:An Improved SA Combination Method Based on a Neural Network
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作者 Lifan Zhao Zetian Huang +3 位作者 Qiming Fu Nengwei Fang Bin Xing Jianping Chen 《Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences》 SCIE EI 2023年第9期2741-2758,共18页
Aiming at optimizing the energy consumption of HVAC,an energy conservation optimization method was proposed for HVAC systems based on the sensitivity analysis(SA),named the sensitivity analysis combination method(SAC)... Aiming at optimizing the energy consumption of HVAC,an energy conservation optimization method was proposed for HVAC systems based on the sensitivity analysis(SA),named the sensitivity analysis combination method(SAC).Based on the SA,neural network and the related settings about energy conservation of HVAC systems,such as cooling water temperature,chilled water temperature and supply air temperature,were optimized.Moreover,based on the data of the existing HVAC system,various optimal control methods ofHVAC systems were tested and evaluated by a simulated HVAC system in TRNSYS.The results show that the proposed SA combination method can reduce significant computational load while maintaining an equivalent energy performance compared with traditional optimal control methods. 展开更多
关键词 Energy conservation sensitivity analysis HVAC system neural network
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Integrity and Failure Analysis of Cement Sheath Subjected to Coalbed Methane Fracturing
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作者 Lingyun Zhao Heng Yang +3 位作者 Yuanlong Wei Yuhuan Bu Shaorui Jing Peiming Zhou 《Fluid Dynamics & Materials Processing》 EI 2023年第2期329-344,共16页
Perforation and fracturing are typically associated with the development of coalbed methane wells.As the cement sheath is prone to failure during this process,in this work,the effects of the casing pressure,elastic mo... Perforation and fracturing are typically associated with the development of coalbed methane wells.As the cement sheath is prone to failure during this process,in this work,the effects of the casing pressure,elastic modulus of the cement,elastic modulus of the formation,and casing eccentricity on the resulting stresses are analyzed in the frame of a finite element method.Subsequently,sensitivity response curves of the cement sheath stress are plotted by normalizing all factors.The results show that the maximum circumferential stress and Mises stress of the cement sheath increase with the casing internal pressure,elastic modulus of the cement and casing eccentricity.As the elastic modulus of the formation increases,the maximum circumferential stress of the cement sheath decreases,and its maximum Mises stress increases slightly.The cement sheath undergoes tensile failure during coalbed methane fracturing.The stress sensitivity of the cement sheath to the influential parameters is in the following order:casing internal pressure>elastic modulus of cement sheath>casing eccentricity>elastic modulus of formation. 展开更多
关键词 Coalbed methane fracturing finite element method cement sheath integrity sensitivity analysis failure analysis
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Parameter sensitivity analysis for a biochemically-based photosynthesis model
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作者 Tuo Han Qi Feng TengFei Yu 《Research in Cold and Arid Regions》 CSCD 2023年第2期73-84,共12页
A challenge for the development of Land Surface Models(LSMs) is improving transpiration of water exchange and photosynthesis of carbon exchange between terrestrial plants and the atmosphere, both of which are governed... A challenge for the development of Land Surface Models(LSMs) is improving transpiration of water exchange and photosynthesis of carbon exchange between terrestrial plants and the atmosphere, both of which are governed by stoma in leaves. In the photosynthesis module of these LSMs, variations of parameters arising from diversity in plant functional types(PFTs) and climate remain unclear. Identifying sensitive parameters among all photosynthetic parameters before parameter estimation can not only reduce operation cost, but also improve the usability of photosynthesis models worldwide. Here, we analyzed 13 parameters of a biochemically-based photosynthesis model(FvCB), implemented in many LSMs, using two sensitivity analysis(SA) methods(i.e., the Sobol’ method and the Morris method) for setting up the parameter ensemble. Three different model performance metrics, i.e.,Root Mean Squared Error(RMSE), Nash Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE), and Standard Deviation(STDEV) were introduced for model assessment and sensitive parameters identification. The results showed that among all photosynthetic parameters only a small portion of parameters were sensitive, and the sensitive parameters were different across plant functional types: maximum rate of Rubisco activity(Vcmax25), maximum electron transport rate(Jmax25), triose phosphate use rate(TPU) and dark respiration in light(Rd) were sensitive in broad leafevergreen trees(BET), broad leaf-deciduous trees(BDT) and needle leaf-evergreen trees(NET), while only Vcmax25and TPU are sensitive in short vegetation(SV), dwarf trees and shrubs(DTS), and agriculture and grassland(AG). The two sensitivity analysis methods suggested a strong SA coherence;in contrast, different model performance metrics led to different SA results. This misfit suggests that more accurate values of sensitive parameters, specifically, species specific and seasonal variable parameters, are required to improve the performance of the FvCB model. 展开更多
关键词 Sobol’method Morris method PHOTOSYNTHESIS Parameters sensitivity analysis FvCB model
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