Development of Bayesian Network Models for Risk-Based Ship Design

In the past fifteen years, the attention of ship safety treatment as an objective rather than a constraint has started to sweep through the whole maritime industry. The risk-based ship design （RBD） methodology, advocating systematic integration of risk assessment within the conventional design process has started to takeoff. Despite this wide recognition and increasing popularity, important factors that could potentially undermine the quality of the results come from both quantitative and qualitative aspects during the risk assessment process. This paper details a promising solution by developing a formalized methodology for risk assessment through effective storing and processing of historical data combined with data generated through first-principle approaches. This method should help to generate appropriate risk models in the selected platform （Bayesian networks） which can be employed for decision making at design stare.

Open-Type Ferry Safety System Design for Using LNG Fuel

In this feasibility study, we investigate the viability of using Liquefied Natural Gas （LNG） fuel in an open type Ro-Ro passenger ferry and the associated potential challenges with regard to the vessel safety systems. We recommend an appropriate methodology for converting existing ships to run on LNG fuel, discuss all the necessary modifications to the ship’s safety systems, and also evaluate the relevant ship evacuation procedures. We outline the basic requirements with which the ship already complies for each safety system and analyze the additional restrictions that must be taken into consideration for the use of LNG fuel. Appropriate actions are recommended. Furthermore, we carry out a hazard identification study. Overall, we clearly demonstrate the technical feasibility of the investigated scenario. Minimal modifications to the ship’s safety systems are required to comply with existing safety rules for this specific type of ship.

Safety Analysis for Thread Pair Clearance of Safety Mechanism of Three Gorges Project Ship Lift

The Three Gorges Project（TGP） ship lift employs 4 safety mechanisms, of which one consists of a rotary locking screw and a nut jaw column. The thread pair clearance（TPC） of safety mechanisms is set at 60 mm. Owing to influential factors,the TPC changes randomly in the upward/downward-stroke of the ship chamber. If it diminished to 0, the safety mechanism would be jammed, thus resulting in disastrous accidents. By the bearing test of the drive system, 7 influential factors have been studied; 15 other influential factors（including 8 factors of manufacture and installation deviation, 3 factors of chamber offset, 2 factors of external load and 2 factors of wear） have been analyzed based on the design data. Results by the limit superposition reveal that the TPC change varies from -43.8 mm to ＋48.4 mm when the water level of the chamber ranges from 3.4 m to 3.6 m. According to the Gaussian distribution, the probability of the TPC change varied from -53.7 mm to ＋58.8 mm in the most detrimental status is99.74%, therefore, the TPC remains in a safe condition. This paper puts forward that two-phase operation of the drive system should be adopted so as to reduce the maximum TPC change to -44.6 mm.

The Seasickness as Marine Problem-Case Study

Motion sickness is one of the main reasons why travelling by sea becomes a bad memory for a number of people, mainly due to a nauseating symptom. The aim of this paper is to characterize a condition called seasickness that has affected many people from a mathematical and psychological point of view. Based on the mathematical characterization, an existing model will be reviewed and described. In the psychological aspects, a statistical study of two hundred and thirteen people was performed in order to provide a comprehensive view of the different psychological factors affecting the passengers. Motion sickness also impacts onboard safety, as it reduces the effectiveness and the operating capability of the crew when responding to hazardous situations.

Self-extinguishing behavior of Kerosene Spray Fire in a Completely Enclosed Compartment

The self-extinguishing behavior of kerosene spray fire was investigated in a completely enclosed compartment with the size of 3 m× 3 m × 3.4 m. The spray was generated by locating one BETE nozzle at the center of the bottom wall. A series of spray fire videos were obtained by changing BETE nozzle type and injecting pressure. The results show that spray ftre undergoes four stages： the growth stage, the quasi-steady stage, the stretch stage and the self-extinguishing stage. Consumption of large quantities of oxygen causes spray fire to first be stretched and then quench. In this process, fire base migrates away from spray region and leads to the emergence of ghost- hag fire. Ghosting fire promotes the instability of spray fire and large fluctuation of its height, which provides help to its self-extinguishing. With increasing the injecting pressure or the nozzle diameter, the self-extinguishing time decreases. It is found that the self-extinguishing time is approximately in inverse relation with injecting flow rate. Additionally, we also observed the occurrence of two-phase de flagration just after ignition, and it accelerates the spray fire growth and induces a larger fire height than the following quasi-steady spray fire. The deflagration turns stronger with increasing the injecting pressure.