Precise forecasting of solar power is crucial for the development of sustainable energy systems.Contemporary forecasting approaches often fail to adequately consider the crucial role of weather factors in photovoltaic...Precise forecasting of solar power is crucial for the development of sustainable energy systems.Contemporary forecasting approaches often fail to adequately consider the crucial role of weather factors in photovoltaic(PV)power generation and encounter issues such as gradient explosion or disappearance when dealing with extensive time-series data.To overcome these challenges,this research presents a cutting-edge,multi-stage forecasting method called D-Informer.This method skillfully merges the differential transformation algorithm with the Informer model,leveraging a detailed array of meteorological variables and historical PV power generation records.The D-Informer model exhibits remarkable superiority over competing models across multiple performance metrics,achieving on average a 67.64%reduction in mean squared error(MSE),a 49.58%decrease in mean absolute error(MAE),and a 43.43%reduction in root mean square error(RMSE).Moreover,it attained an R2 value as high as 0.9917 during the winter season,highlighting its precision and dependability.This significant advancement can be primarily attributed to the incorporation of a multi-head self-attention mechanism,which greatly enhances the model’s ability to identify complex interactions among diverse input variables,and the inclusion of weather variables,enriching the model’s input data and strengthening its predictive accuracy in time series analysis.Additionally,the experimental results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed approach.展开更多
Accurate load forecasting forms a crucial foundation for implementing household demand response plans andoptimizing load scheduling. When dealing with short-term load data characterized by substantial fluctuations,a s...Accurate load forecasting forms a crucial foundation for implementing household demand response plans andoptimizing load scheduling. When dealing with short-term load data characterized by substantial fluctuations,a single prediction model is hard to capture temporal features effectively, resulting in diminished predictionaccuracy. In this study, a hybrid deep learning framework that integrates attention mechanism, convolution neuralnetwork (CNN), improved chaotic particle swarm optimization (ICPSO), and long short-term memory (LSTM), isproposed for short-term household load forecasting. Firstly, the CNN model is employed to extract features fromthe original data, enhancing the quality of data features. Subsequently, the moving average method is used for datapreprocessing, followed by the application of the LSTM network to predict the processed data. Moreover, the ICPSOalgorithm is introduced to optimize the parameters of LSTM, aimed at boosting the model’s running speed andaccuracy. Finally, the attention mechanism is employed to optimize the output value of LSTM, effectively addressinginformation loss in LSTM induced by lengthy sequences and further elevating prediction accuracy. According tothe numerical analysis, the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid model have been verified. It canexplore data features adeptly, achieving superior prediction accuracy compared to other forecasting methods forthe household load exhibiting significant fluctuations across different seasons.展开更多
Accurate wind power forecasting is critical for system integration and stability as renewable energy reliance grows.Traditional approaches frequently struggle with complex data and non-linear connections. This article...Accurate wind power forecasting is critical for system integration and stability as renewable energy reliance grows.Traditional approaches frequently struggle with complex data and non-linear connections. This article presentsa novel approach for hybrid ensemble learning that is based on rigorous requirements engineering concepts.The approach finds significant parameters influencing forecasting accuracy by evaluating real-time Modern-EraRetrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA2) data from several European Wind farms usingin-depth stakeholder research and requirements elicitation. Ensemble learning is used to develop a robust model,while a temporal convolutional network handles time-series complexities and data gaps. The ensemble-temporalneural network is enhanced by providing different input parameters including training layers, hidden and dropoutlayers along with activation and loss functions. The proposed framework is further analyzed by comparing stateof-the-art forecasting models in terms of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE),respectively. The energy efficiency performance indicators showed that the proposed model demonstrates errorreduction percentages of approximately 16.67%, 28.57%, and 81.92% for MAE, and 38.46%, 17.65%, and 90.78%for RMSE for MERRAWind farms 1, 2, and 3, respectively, compared to other existingmethods. These quantitativeresults show the effectiveness of our proposed model with MAE values ranging from 0.0010 to 0.0156 and RMSEvalues ranging from 0.0014 to 0.0174. This work highlights the effectiveness of requirements engineering in windpower forecasting, leading to enhanced forecast accuracy and grid stability, ultimately paving the way for moresustainable energy solutions.展开更多
With a further increase in energy flexibility for customers,short-term load forecasting is essential to provide benchmarks for economic dispatch and real-time alerts in power grids.The electrical load series exhibit p...With a further increase in energy flexibility for customers,short-term load forecasting is essential to provide benchmarks for economic dispatch and real-time alerts in power grids.The electrical load series exhibit periodic patterns and share high associations with metrological data.However,current studies have merely focused on point-wise models and failed to sufficiently investigate the periodic patterns of load series,which hinders the further improvement of short-term load forecasting accuracy.Therefore,this paper improved Autoformer to extract the periodic patterns of load series and learn a representative feature from deep decomposition and reconstruction.In addition,a novel multi-factor attention mechanism was proposed to handle multi-source metrological and numerical weather prediction data and thus correct the forecasted electrical load.The paper also compared the proposed model with various competitive models.As the experimental results reveal,the proposed model outperforms the benchmark models and maintains stability on various types of load consumers.展开更多
Since the existing prediction methods have encountered difficulties in processing themultiple influencing factors in short-term power load forecasting,we propose a bidirectional long short-term memory(BiLSTM)neural ne...Since the existing prediction methods have encountered difficulties in processing themultiple influencing factors in short-term power load forecasting,we propose a bidirectional long short-term memory(BiLSTM)neural network model based on the temporal pattern attention(TPA)mechanism.Firstly,based on the grey relational analysis,datasets similar to forecast day are obtained.Secondly,thebidirectional LSTM layermodels the data of thehistorical load,temperature,humidity,and date-type and extracts complex relationships between data from the hidden row vectors obtained by the BiLSTM network,so that the influencing factors(with different characteristics)can select relevant information from different time steps to reduce the prediction error of the model.Simultaneously,the complex and nonlinear dependencies between time steps and sequences are extracted by the TPA mechanism,so the attention weight vector is constructed for the hidden layer output of BiLSTM and the relevant variables at different time steps are weighted to influence the input.Finally,the chaotic sparrow search algorithm(CSSA)is used to optimize the hyperparameter selection of the model.The short-term power load forecasting on different data sets shows that the average absolute errors of short-termpower load forecasting based on our method are 0.876 and 4.238,respectively,which is lower than other forecastingmethods,demonstrating the accuracy and stability of our model.展开更多
Accurate forecasting for photovoltaic power generation is one of the key enablers for the integration of solar photovoltaic systems into power grids.Existing deep-learning-based methods can perform well if there are s...Accurate forecasting for photovoltaic power generation is one of the key enablers for the integration of solar photovoltaic systems into power grids.Existing deep-learning-based methods can perform well if there are sufficient training data and enough computational resources.However,there are challenges in building models through centralized shared data due to data privacy concerns and industry competition.Federated learning is a new distributed machine learning approach which enables training models across edge devices while data reside locally.In this paper,we propose an efficient semi-asynchronous federated learning framework for short-term solar power forecasting and evaluate the framework performance using a CNN-LSTM model.We design a personalization technique and a semi-asynchronous aggregation strategy to improve the efficiency of the proposed federated forecasting approach.Thorough evaluations using a real-world dataset demonstrate that the federated models can achieve significantly higher forecasting performance than fully local models while protecting data privacy,and the proposed semi-asynchronous aggregation and the personalization technique can make the forecasting framework more robust in real-world scenarios.展开更多
Maintaining a steady power supply requires accurate forecasting of solar irradiance,since clean energy resources do not provide steady power.The existing forecasting studies have examined the limited effects of weathe...Maintaining a steady power supply requires accurate forecasting of solar irradiance,since clean energy resources do not provide steady power.The existing forecasting studies have examined the limited effects of weather conditions on solar radiation such as temperature and precipitation utilizing convolutional neural network(CNN),but no comprehensive study has been conducted on concentrations of air pollutants along with weather conditions.This paper proposes a hybrid approach based on deep learning,expanding the feature set by adding new air pollution concentrations,and ranking these features to select and reduce their size to improve efficiency.In order to improve the accuracy of feature selection,a maximum-dependency and minimum-redundancy(mRMR)criterion is applied to the constructed feature space to identify and rank the features.The combination of air pollution data with weather conditions data has enabled the prediction of solar irradiance with a higher accuracy.An evaluation of the proposed approach is conducted in Istanbul over 12 months for 43791 discrete times,with the main purpose of analyzing air data,including particular matter(PM10 and PM25),carbon monoxide(CO),nitric oxide(NOX),nitrogen dioxide(NO_(2)),ozone(O₃),sulfur dioxide(SO_(2))using a CNN,a long short-term memory network(LSTM),and MRMR feature extraction.Compared with the benchmark models with root mean square error(RMSE)results of 76.2,60.3,41.3,32.4,there is a significant improvement with the RMSE result of 5.536.This hybrid model presented here offers high prediction accuracy,a wider feature set,and a novel approach based on air concentrations combined with weather conditions for solar irradiance prediction.展开更多
Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is part and parcel of theefficient working of power grid stations. Accurate forecasts help to detect thefault and enhance grid reliability for organizing sufficient energy transactio...Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is part and parcel of theefficient working of power grid stations. Accurate forecasts help to detect thefault and enhance grid reliability for organizing sufficient energy transactions.STLF ranges from an hour ahead prediction to a day ahead prediction. Variouselectric load forecasting methods have been used in literature for electricitygeneration planning to meet future load demand. A perfect balance regardinggeneration and utilization is still lacking to avoid extra generation and misusageof electric load. Therefore, this paper utilizes Levenberg–Marquardt(LM) based Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique to forecast theshort-term electricity load for smart grids in a much better, more precise,and more accurate manner. For proper load forecasting, we take the mostcritical weather parameters along with historical load data in the form of timeseries grouped into seasons, i.e., winter and summer. Further, the presentedmodel deals with each season’s load data by splitting it into weekdays andweekends. The historical load data of three years have been used to forecastweek-ahead and day-ahead load demand after every thirty minutes makingload forecast for a very short period. The proposed model is optimized usingthe Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm to achieve results withcomparable statistics. Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), Root MeanSquared Error (RMSE), R2, and R are used to evaluate the model. Comparedwith other recent machine learning-based mechanisms, our model presentsthe best experimental results with MAPE and R2 scores of 1.3 and 0.99,respectively. The results prove that the proposed LM-based ANN modelperforms much better in accuracy and has the lowest error rates as comparedto existing work.展开更多
With the continuous advancement of China’s“peak carbon dioxide emissions and Carbon Neutrality”process,the proportion of wind power is increasing.In the current research,aiming at the problem that the forecasting m...With the continuous advancement of China’s“peak carbon dioxide emissions and Carbon Neutrality”process,the proportion of wind power is increasing.In the current research,aiming at the problem that the forecasting model is outdated due to the continuous updating of wind power data,a short-term wind power forecasting algorithm based on Incremental Learning-Bagging Deep Hybrid Kernel Extreme Learning Machine(IL-Bagging-DHKELM)error affinity propagation cluster analysis is proposed.The algorithm effectively combines deep hybrid kernel extreme learning machine(DHKELM)with incremental learning(IL).Firstly,an initial wind power prediction model is trained using the Bagging-DHKELM model.Secondly,Euclidean morphological distance affinity propagation AP clustering algorithm is used to cluster and analyze the prediction error of wind power obtained from the initial training model.Finally,the correlation between wind power prediction errors and Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP)data is introduced as incremental updates to the initial wind power prediction model.During the incremental learning process,multiple error performance indicators are used to measure the overall model performance,thereby enabling incremental updates of wind power models.Practical examples show the method proposed in this article reduces the root mean square error of the initial model by 1.9 percentage points,indicating that this method can be better adapted to the current scenario of the continuous increase in wind power penetration rate.The accuracy and precision of wind power generation prediction are effectively improved through the method.展开更多
In the present study,multimodel ensemble forecast experiments of the global horizontal irradiance(GHI)were conducted using the dynamic variable weight technique.The study was based on the forecasts of four numerical m...In the present study,multimodel ensemble forecast experiments of the global horizontal irradiance(GHI)were conducted using the dynamic variable weight technique.The study was based on the forecasts of four numerical models,namely,the China Meteorological Administration Wind Energy and Solar Energy Prediction System,the Mesoscale Weather Numerical Prediction System of China Meteorological Administration,the China Meteorological Administration Regional Mesoscale Numerical Prediction System-Guangdong,and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model-Solar,and observational data from four photovoltaic(PV)power stations in Yangjiang City,Guangdong Province.The results show that compared with those of the monthly optimal numerical model forecasts,the dynamic variable weight-based ensemble forecasts exhibited 0.97%-15.96%smaller values of the mean absolute error and 3.31%-18.40%lower values of the root mean square error(RMSE).However,the increase in the correlation coefficient was not obvious.Specifically,the multimodel ensemble mainly improved the performance of GHI forecasts below 700 W m-2,particularly below 400 W m-2,with RMSE reductions as high as 7.56%-28.28%.In contrast,the RMSE increased at GHI levels above 700 W m-2.As for the key period of PV power station output(02:00-07:00),the accuracy of GHI forecasts could be improved by the multimodel ensemble:the multimodel ensemble could effectively decrease the daily maximum absolute error(AE max)of GHI forecasts.Moreover,with increasing forecasting difficulty under cloudy conditions,the multimodel ensemble,which yields data closer to the actual observations,could simulate GHI fluctuations more accurately.展开更多
Due to the high inherent uncertainty of renewable energy,probabilistic day-ahead wind power forecasting is crucial for modeling and controlling the uncertainty of renewable energy smart grids in smart cities.However,t...Due to the high inherent uncertainty of renewable energy,probabilistic day-ahead wind power forecasting is crucial for modeling and controlling the uncertainty of renewable energy smart grids in smart cities.However,the accuracy and reliability of high-resolution day-ahead wind power forecasting are constrained by unreliable local weather prediction and incomplete power generation data.This article proposes a physics-informed artificial intelligence(AI)surrogates method to augment the incomplete dataset and quantify its uncertainty to improve wind power forecasting performance.The incomplete dataset,built with numerical weather prediction data,historical wind power generation,and weather factors data,is augmented based on generative adversarial networks.After augmentation,the enriched data is then fed into a multiple AI surrogates model constructed by two extreme learning machine networks to train the forecasting model for wind power.Therefore,the forecasting models’accuracy and generalization ability are improved by mining the implicit physics information from the incomplete dataset.An incomplete dataset gathered from a wind farm in North China,containing only 15 days of weather and wind power generation data withmissing points caused by occasional shutdowns,is utilized to verify the proposed method’s performance.Compared with other probabilistic forecastingmethods,the proposed method shows better accuracy and probabilistic performance on the same incomplete dataset,which highlights its potential for more flexible and sensitive maintenance of smart grids in smart cities.展开更多
An improved fuzzy time series algorithmbased on clustering is designed in this paper.The algorithm is successfully applied to short-term load forecasting in the distribution stations.Firstly,the K-means clustering met...An improved fuzzy time series algorithmbased on clustering is designed in this paper.The algorithm is successfully applied to short-term load forecasting in the distribution stations.Firstly,the K-means clustering method is used to cluster the data,and the midpoint of two adjacent clustering centers is taken as the dividing point of domain division.On this basis,the data is fuzzed to form a fuzzy time series.Secondly,a high-order fuzzy relation with multiple antecedents is established according to the main measurement indexes of power load,which is used to predict the short-term trend change of load in the distribution stations.Matlab/Simulink simulation results show that the load forecasting errors of the typical fuzzy time series on the time scale of one day and one week are[−50,20]and[−50,30],while the load forecasting errors of the improved fuzzy time series on the time scale of one day and one week are[−20,15]and[−20,25].It shows that the fuzzy time series algorithm improved by clustering improves the prediction accuracy and can effectively predict the short-term load trend of distribution stations.展开更多
Aiming at the low accuracy problem of power system short-term load forecasting by traditional methods, a back-propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) based method for short-term load forecasting is presented ...Aiming at the low accuracy problem of power system short-term load forecasting by traditional methods, a back-propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) based method for short-term load forecasting is presented in this paper. The forecast points are related to prophase adjacent data as well as the periodical long-term historical load data. Then the short-term load forecasting model of Shanxi Power Grid (China) based on BP-ANN method and correlation analysis is established. The simulation model matches well with practical power system load, indicating the BP-ANN method is simple and with higher precision and practicality.展开更多
Predicting wind power gen eration over the medium and long term is helpful for dispatchi ng departme nts,as it aids in constructing generation plans and electricity market transactions.This study presents a monthly wi...Predicting wind power gen eration over the medium and long term is helpful for dispatchi ng departme nts,as it aids in constructing generation plans and electricity market transactions.This study presents a monthly wind power gen eration forecast!ng method based on a climate model and long short-term memory(LSTM)n eural n etwork.A non linear mappi ng model is established between the meteorological elements and wind power monthly utilization hours.After considering the meteorological data(as predicted for the future)and new installed capacity planning,the monthly wind power gen eration forecast results are output.A case study shows the effectiveness of the prediction method.展开更多
In recent years, there has been introduction of alternative energy sources such as wind energy. However, wind speed is not constant and wind power output is proportional to the cube of the wind speed. In order to cont...In recent years, there has been introduction of alternative energy sources such as wind energy. However, wind speed is not constant and wind power output is proportional to the cube of the wind speed. In order to control the power output for wind power generators as accurately as possible, a method of wind speed estimation is required. In this paper, a technique considers that wind speed in the order of 1 - 30 seconds is investigated in confirming the validity of the Auto Regressive model (AR), Kalman Filter (KF) and Neural Network (NN) to forecast wind speed. This paper compares the simulation results of the forecast wind speed for the power output forecast of wind power generator by using AR, KF and NN.展开更多
The inherent randomness,intermittence and volatility of wind power generation compromise the quality of the wind power system,resulting in uncertainty in the system’s optimal scheduling.As a result,it’s critical to ...The inherent randomness,intermittence and volatility of wind power generation compromise the quality of the wind power system,resulting in uncertainty in the system’s optimal scheduling.As a result,it’s critical to improve power quality and assure real-time power grid scheduling and grid-connected wind farm operation.Inferred statistics are utilized in this research to infer general features based on the selected information,confirming that there are differences between two forecasting categories:Forecast Category 1(0-11 h ahead)and Forecast Category 2(12-23 h ahead).In z-tests,the null hypothesis provides the corresponding quantitative findings.To verify the final performance of the prediction findings,five benchmark methodologies are used:Persistence model,LMNN(Multilayer Perceptron with LMlearningmethods),NARX(Nonlinear autoregressive exogenous neural networkmodel),LMRNN(RNNs with LM training methods)and LSTM(Long short-term memory neural network).Experiments using a real dataset show that the LSTM network has the highest forecasting accuracy when compared to other benchmark approaches including persistence model,LMNN,NARX network,and LMRNN,and the 23-steps forecasting accuracy has improved by 19.61%.展开更多
In the electricity market,fluctuations in real-time prices are unstable,and changes in short-term load are determined by many factors.By studying the timing of charging and discharging,as well as the economic benefits...In the electricity market,fluctuations in real-time prices are unstable,and changes in short-term load are determined by many factors.By studying the timing of charging and discharging,as well as the economic benefits of energy storage in the process of participating in the power market,this paper takes energy storage scheduling as merely one factor affecting short-term power load,which affects short-term load time series along with time-of-use price,holidays,and temperature.A deep learning network is used to predict the short-term load,a convolutional neural network(CNN)is used to extract the features,and a long short-term memory(LSTM)network is used to learn the temporal characteristics of the load value,which can effectively improve prediction accuracy.Taking the load data of a certain region as an example,the CNN-LSTM prediction model is compared with the single LSTM prediction model.The experimental results show that the CNN-LSTM deep learning network with the participation of energy storage in dispatching can have high prediction accuracy for short-term power load forecasting.展开更多
Based on an available parking space occupancy (APSO) survey conducted in Nanjing, China, an APSO forecasting model is proposed. The APSO survey results indicate that the time series of APSO with different time-secti...Based on an available parking space occupancy (APSO) survey conducted in Nanjing, China, an APSO forecasting model is proposed. The APSO survey results indicate that the time series of APSO with different time-sections are periodical and self-similar, and the fluctuation of the APSO increases with the decrease in time-sections. Taking the short-time change behavior into account, an APSO forecasting model combined wavelet analysis and a weighted Markov chain is presented. In this model, an original APSO time series is first decomposed by wavelet analysis, and the results include low frequency signals representing the basic trends of APSO and several high frequency signals representing disturbances of the APSO. Then different Markov models are used to forecast the changes of low and high frequency signals, respectively. Finally, integrating the predicted results induces the final forecasted APSO. A case study verifies the applicability of the proposed model. The comparisons between measured and forecasted results show that the model is a competent model and its accuracy relies on real-time update of the APSO database.展开更多
There are a lot of methods in city water consumption short-term forecasting both inside and outside the country. But among these methods there exist many advantages and shortcomings in model establishing, solving and ...There are a lot of methods in city water consumption short-term forecasting both inside and outside the country. But among these methods there exist many advantages and shortcomings in model establishing, solving and predicting accuracy, speed, applicability. This article draws lessons from other realm mature methods after many years′ study. It′s systematically studied and compared to predict the water consumption in accuracy, speed, effect and applicability among the time series triangle function method, artificial neural network method, gray system theories method, wavelet analytical method.展开更多
Wind and solar energy are two popular forms of renewable energy used in microgrids and facilitating the transition towards net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.However,they are exceedingly unpredictable since they rely h...Wind and solar energy are two popular forms of renewable energy used in microgrids and facilitating the transition towards net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.However,they are exceedingly unpredictable since they rely highly on weather and atmospheric conditions.In microgrids,smart energy management systems,such as integrated demand response programs,are permanently established on a step-ahead basis,which means that accu-rate forecasting of wind speed and solar irradiance intervals is becoming increasingly crucial to the optimal operation and planning of microgrids.With this in mind,a novel“bidirectional long short-term memory network”(Bi-LSTM)-based,deep stacked,sequence-to-sequence autoencoder(S2SAE)forecasting model for predicting short-term solar irradiation and wind speed was developed and evaluated in MATLAB.To create a deep stacked S2SAE prediction model,a deep Bi-LSTM-based encoder and decoder are stacked on top of one another to reduce the dimension of the input sequence,extract its features,and then reconstruct it to produce the forecasts.Hyperparameters of the proposed deep stacked S2SAE forecasting model were optimized using the Bayesian optimization algorithm.Moreover,the forecasting performance of the proposed Bi-LSTM-based deep stacked S2SAE model was compared to three other deep,and shallow stacked S2SAEs,i.e.,the LSTM-based deep stacked S2SAE model,gated recurrent unit-based deep stacked S2SAE model,and Bi-LSTM-based shallow stacked S2SAE model.All these models were also optimized and modeled in MATLAB.The results simulated based on actual data confirmed that the proposed model outperformed the alternatives by achieving an accuracy of up to 99.7%,which evidenced the high reliability of the proposed forecasting.展开更多
基金supported by the Shenzhen Science and Technology Plan,Sustainable Development Technology Special Project (Dual-Carbon Special Project),Research and Development of Intelligent Virtual Power Plant Technology (KCXST20221021111402006)the Science and Technology project of Tianjin,China (No.22YFYSHZ00330).
文摘Precise forecasting of solar power is crucial for the development of sustainable energy systems.Contemporary forecasting approaches often fail to adequately consider the crucial role of weather factors in photovoltaic(PV)power generation and encounter issues such as gradient explosion or disappearance when dealing with extensive time-series data.To overcome these challenges,this research presents a cutting-edge,multi-stage forecasting method called D-Informer.This method skillfully merges the differential transformation algorithm with the Informer model,leveraging a detailed array of meteorological variables and historical PV power generation records.The D-Informer model exhibits remarkable superiority over competing models across multiple performance metrics,achieving on average a 67.64%reduction in mean squared error(MSE),a 49.58%decrease in mean absolute error(MAE),and a 43.43%reduction in root mean square error(RMSE).Moreover,it attained an R2 value as high as 0.9917 during the winter season,highlighting its precision and dependability.This significant advancement can be primarily attributed to the incorporation of a multi-head self-attention mechanism,which greatly enhances the model’s ability to identify complex interactions among diverse input variables,and the inclusion of weather variables,enriching the model’s input data and strengthening its predictive accuracy in time series analysis.Additionally,the experimental results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
基金the Shanghai Rising-Star Program(No.22QA1403900)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71804106)the Noncarbon Energy Conversion and Utilization Institute under the Shanghai Class IV Peak Disciplinary Development Program.
文摘Accurate load forecasting forms a crucial foundation for implementing household demand response plans andoptimizing load scheduling. When dealing with short-term load data characterized by substantial fluctuations,a single prediction model is hard to capture temporal features effectively, resulting in diminished predictionaccuracy. In this study, a hybrid deep learning framework that integrates attention mechanism, convolution neuralnetwork (CNN), improved chaotic particle swarm optimization (ICPSO), and long short-term memory (LSTM), isproposed for short-term household load forecasting. Firstly, the CNN model is employed to extract features fromthe original data, enhancing the quality of data features. Subsequently, the moving average method is used for datapreprocessing, followed by the application of the LSTM network to predict the processed data. Moreover, the ICPSOalgorithm is introduced to optimize the parameters of LSTM, aimed at boosting the model’s running speed andaccuracy. Finally, the attention mechanism is employed to optimize the output value of LSTM, effectively addressinginformation loss in LSTM induced by lengthy sequences and further elevating prediction accuracy. According tothe numerical analysis, the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid model have been verified. It canexplore data features adeptly, achieving superior prediction accuracy compared to other forecasting methods forthe household load exhibiting significant fluctuations across different seasons.
文摘Accurate wind power forecasting is critical for system integration and stability as renewable energy reliance grows.Traditional approaches frequently struggle with complex data and non-linear connections. This article presentsa novel approach for hybrid ensemble learning that is based on rigorous requirements engineering concepts.The approach finds significant parameters influencing forecasting accuracy by evaluating real-time Modern-EraRetrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA2) data from several European Wind farms usingin-depth stakeholder research and requirements elicitation. Ensemble learning is used to develop a robust model,while a temporal convolutional network handles time-series complexities and data gaps. The ensemble-temporalneural network is enhanced by providing different input parameters including training layers, hidden and dropoutlayers along with activation and loss functions. The proposed framework is further analyzed by comparing stateof-the-art forecasting models in terms of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE),respectively. The energy efficiency performance indicators showed that the proposed model demonstrates errorreduction percentages of approximately 16.67%, 28.57%, and 81.92% for MAE, and 38.46%, 17.65%, and 90.78%for RMSE for MERRAWind farms 1, 2, and 3, respectively, compared to other existingmethods. These quantitativeresults show the effectiveness of our proposed model with MAE values ranging from 0.0010 to 0.0156 and RMSEvalues ranging from 0.0014 to 0.0174. This work highlights the effectiveness of requirements engineering in windpower forecasting, leading to enhanced forecast accuracy and grid stability, ultimately paving the way for moresustainable energy solutions.
基金supported by Science and Technology Project of State Grid Zhejiang Corporation of China“Research on State Estimation and Risk Assessment Technology for New Power Distribution Networks for Widely Connected Distributed Energy”(5211JX22002D).
文摘With a further increase in energy flexibility for customers,short-term load forecasting is essential to provide benchmarks for economic dispatch and real-time alerts in power grids.The electrical load series exhibit periodic patterns and share high associations with metrological data.However,current studies have merely focused on point-wise models and failed to sufficiently investigate the periodic patterns of load series,which hinders the further improvement of short-term load forecasting accuracy.Therefore,this paper improved Autoformer to extract the periodic patterns of load series and learn a representative feature from deep decomposition and reconstruction.In addition,a novel multi-factor attention mechanism was proposed to handle multi-source metrological and numerical weather prediction data and thus correct the forecasted electrical load.The paper also compared the proposed model with various competitive models.As the experimental results reveal,the proposed model outperforms the benchmark models and maintains stability on various types of load consumers.
基金supported by the Major Project of Basic and Applied Research in Guangdong Universities (2017WZDXM012)。
文摘Since the existing prediction methods have encountered difficulties in processing themultiple influencing factors in short-term power load forecasting,we propose a bidirectional long short-term memory(BiLSTM)neural network model based on the temporal pattern attention(TPA)mechanism.Firstly,based on the grey relational analysis,datasets similar to forecast day are obtained.Secondly,thebidirectional LSTM layermodels the data of thehistorical load,temperature,humidity,and date-type and extracts complex relationships between data from the hidden row vectors obtained by the BiLSTM network,so that the influencing factors(with different characteristics)can select relevant information from different time steps to reduce the prediction error of the model.Simultaneously,the complex and nonlinear dependencies between time steps and sequences are extracted by the TPA mechanism,so the attention weight vector is constructed for the hidden layer output of BiLSTM and the relevant variables at different time steps are weighted to influence the input.Finally,the chaotic sparrow search algorithm(CSSA)is used to optimize the hyperparameter selection of the model.The short-term power load forecasting on different data sets shows that the average absolute errors of short-termpower load forecasting based on our method are 0.876 and 4.238,respectively,which is lower than other forecastingmethods,demonstrating the accuracy and stability of our model.
基金The research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62072469)the National Key R&D Program of China(2018AAA0101502)+2 种基金Shandong Natural Science Foundation(ZR2019MF049)West Coast artificial intelligence technology innovation center(2019-1-5,2019-1-6)the Opening Project of Shanghai Trusted Industrial Control Platform(TICPSH202003015-ZC).
文摘Accurate forecasting for photovoltaic power generation is one of the key enablers for the integration of solar photovoltaic systems into power grids.Existing deep-learning-based methods can perform well if there are sufficient training data and enough computational resources.However,there are challenges in building models through centralized shared data due to data privacy concerns and industry competition.Federated learning is a new distributed machine learning approach which enables training models across edge devices while data reside locally.In this paper,we propose an efficient semi-asynchronous federated learning framework for short-term solar power forecasting and evaluate the framework performance using a CNN-LSTM model.We design a personalization technique and a semi-asynchronous aggregation strategy to improve the efficiency of the proposed federated forecasting approach.Thorough evaluations using a real-world dataset demonstrate that the federated models can achieve significantly higher forecasting performance than fully local models while protecting data privacy,and the proposed semi-asynchronous aggregation and the personalization technique can make the forecasting framework more robust in real-world scenarios.
文摘Maintaining a steady power supply requires accurate forecasting of solar irradiance,since clean energy resources do not provide steady power.The existing forecasting studies have examined the limited effects of weather conditions on solar radiation such as temperature and precipitation utilizing convolutional neural network(CNN),but no comprehensive study has been conducted on concentrations of air pollutants along with weather conditions.This paper proposes a hybrid approach based on deep learning,expanding the feature set by adding new air pollution concentrations,and ranking these features to select and reduce their size to improve efficiency.In order to improve the accuracy of feature selection,a maximum-dependency and minimum-redundancy(mRMR)criterion is applied to the constructed feature space to identify and rank the features.The combination of air pollution data with weather conditions data has enabled the prediction of solar irradiance with a higher accuracy.An evaluation of the proposed approach is conducted in Istanbul over 12 months for 43791 discrete times,with the main purpose of analyzing air data,including particular matter(PM10 and PM25),carbon monoxide(CO),nitric oxide(NOX),nitrogen dioxide(NO_(2)),ozone(O₃),sulfur dioxide(SO_(2))using a CNN,a long short-term memory network(LSTM),and MRMR feature extraction.Compared with the benchmark models with root mean square error(RMSE)results of 76.2,60.3,41.3,32.4,there is a significant improvement with the RMSE result of 5.536.This hybrid model presented here offers high prediction accuracy,a wider feature set,and a novel approach based on air concentrations combined with weather conditions for solar irradiance prediction.
基金support provided in part by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No.2020YFB1005804)in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 61632009+1 种基金in part by the High-Level Talents Program of Higher Education in Guangdong Province under Grant 2016ZJ01in part by the NCRA-017,NUST,Islamabad.
文摘Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is part and parcel of theefficient working of power grid stations. Accurate forecasts help to detect thefault and enhance grid reliability for organizing sufficient energy transactions.STLF ranges from an hour ahead prediction to a day ahead prediction. Variouselectric load forecasting methods have been used in literature for electricitygeneration planning to meet future load demand. A perfect balance regardinggeneration and utilization is still lacking to avoid extra generation and misusageof electric load. Therefore, this paper utilizes Levenberg–Marquardt(LM) based Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique to forecast theshort-term electricity load for smart grids in a much better, more precise,and more accurate manner. For proper load forecasting, we take the mostcritical weather parameters along with historical load data in the form of timeseries grouped into seasons, i.e., winter and summer. Further, the presentedmodel deals with each season’s load data by splitting it into weekdays andweekends. The historical load data of three years have been used to forecastweek-ahead and day-ahead load demand after every thirty minutes makingload forecast for a very short period. The proposed model is optimized usingthe Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm to achieve results withcomparable statistics. Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), Root MeanSquared Error (RMSE), R2, and R are used to evaluate the model. Comparedwith other recent machine learning-based mechanisms, our model presentsthe best experimental results with MAPE and R2 scores of 1.3 and 0.99,respectively. The results prove that the proposed LM-based ANN modelperforms much better in accuracy and has the lowest error rates as comparedto existing work.
基金funded by Liaoning Provincial Department of Science and Technology(2023JH2/101600058)。
文摘With the continuous advancement of China’s“peak carbon dioxide emissions and Carbon Neutrality”process,the proportion of wind power is increasing.In the current research,aiming at the problem that the forecasting model is outdated due to the continuous updating of wind power data,a short-term wind power forecasting algorithm based on Incremental Learning-Bagging Deep Hybrid Kernel Extreme Learning Machine(IL-Bagging-DHKELM)error affinity propagation cluster analysis is proposed.The algorithm effectively combines deep hybrid kernel extreme learning machine(DHKELM)with incremental learning(IL).Firstly,an initial wind power prediction model is trained using the Bagging-DHKELM model.Secondly,Euclidean morphological distance affinity propagation AP clustering algorithm is used to cluster and analyze the prediction error of wind power obtained from the initial training model.Finally,the correlation between wind power prediction errors and Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP)data is introduced as incremental updates to the initial wind power prediction model.During the incremental learning process,multiple error performance indicators are used to measure the overall model performance,thereby enabling incremental updates of wind power models.Practical examples show the method proposed in this article reduces the root mean square error of the initial model by 1.9 percentage points,indicating that this method can be better adapted to the current scenario of the continuous increase in wind power penetration rate.The accuracy and precision of wind power generation prediction are effectively improved through the method.
基金Innovation and Development Project of China Meteorological Administration(CXFZ2023J044)Innovation Foundation of CMA Public Meteorological Service Center(K2023002)+1 种基金“Tianchi Talents”Introduction Plan(2023)Key Innovation Team for Energy and Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration。
文摘In the present study,multimodel ensemble forecast experiments of the global horizontal irradiance(GHI)were conducted using the dynamic variable weight technique.The study was based on the forecasts of four numerical models,namely,the China Meteorological Administration Wind Energy and Solar Energy Prediction System,the Mesoscale Weather Numerical Prediction System of China Meteorological Administration,the China Meteorological Administration Regional Mesoscale Numerical Prediction System-Guangdong,and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model-Solar,and observational data from four photovoltaic(PV)power stations in Yangjiang City,Guangdong Province.The results show that compared with those of the monthly optimal numerical model forecasts,the dynamic variable weight-based ensemble forecasts exhibited 0.97%-15.96%smaller values of the mean absolute error and 3.31%-18.40%lower values of the root mean square error(RMSE).However,the increase in the correlation coefficient was not obvious.Specifically,the multimodel ensemble mainly improved the performance of GHI forecasts below 700 W m-2,particularly below 400 W m-2,with RMSE reductions as high as 7.56%-28.28%.In contrast,the RMSE increased at GHI levels above 700 W m-2.As for the key period of PV power station output(02:00-07:00),the accuracy of GHI forecasts could be improved by the multimodel ensemble:the multimodel ensemble could effectively decrease the daily maximum absolute error(AE max)of GHI forecasts.Moreover,with increasing forecasting difficulty under cloudy conditions,the multimodel ensemble,which yields data closer to the actual observations,could simulate GHI fluctuations more accurately.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 62273022.
文摘Due to the high inherent uncertainty of renewable energy,probabilistic day-ahead wind power forecasting is crucial for modeling and controlling the uncertainty of renewable energy smart grids in smart cities.However,the accuracy and reliability of high-resolution day-ahead wind power forecasting are constrained by unreliable local weather prediction and incomplete power generation data.This article proposes a physics-informed artificial intelligence(AI)surrogates method to augment the incomplete dataset and quantify its uncertainty to improve wind power forecasting performance.The incomplete dataset,built with numerical weather prediction data,historical wind power generation,and weather factors data,is augmented based on generative adversarial networks.After augmentation,the enriched data is then fed into a multiple AI surrogates model constructed by two extreme learning machine networks to train the forecasting model for wind power.Therefore,the forecasting models’accuracy and generalization ability are improved by mining the implicit physics information from the incomplete dataset.An incomplete dataset gathered from a wind farm in North China,containing only 15 days of weather and wind power generation data withmissing points caused by occasional shutdowns,is utilized to verify the proposed method’s performance.Compared with other probabilistic forecastingmethods,the proposed method shows better accuracy and probabilistic performance on the same incomplete dataset,which highlights its potential for more flexible and sensitive maintenance of smart grids in smart cities.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 51777193.
文摘An improved fuzzy time series algorithmbased on clustering is designed in this paper.The algorithm is successfully applied to short-term load forecasting in the distribution stations.Firstly,the K-means clustering method is used to cluster the data,and the midpoint of two adjacent clustering centers is taken as the dividing point of domain division.On this basis,the data is fuzzed to form a fuzzy time series.Secondly,a high-order fuzzy relation with multiple antecedents is established according to the main measurement indexes of power load,which is used to predict the short-term trend change of load in the distribution stations.Matlab/Simulink simulation results show that the load forecasting errors of the typical fuzzy time series on the time scale of one day and one week are[−50,20]and[−50,30],while the load forecasting errors of the improved fuzzy time series on the time scale of one day and one week are[−20,15]and[−20,25].It shows that the fuzzy time series algorithm improved by clustering improves the prediction accuracy and can effectively predict the short-term load trend of distribution stations.
文摘Aiming at the low accuracy problem of power system short-term load forecasting by traditional methods, a back-propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) based method for short-term load forecasting is presented in this paper. The forecast points are related to prophase adjacent data as well as the periodical long-term historical load data. Then the short-term load forecasting model of Shanxi Power Grid (China) based on BP-ANN method and correlation analysis is established. The simulation model matches well with practical power system load, indicating the BP-ANN method is simple and with higher precision and practicality.
基金National Key R&D Program of China"Study on impact assessment of ecological climate and environment on the wind fann and photovoltaic plants"(2018YFB1502800)Science and Technology Project of State Grid Hebei Electric Power Company"Research and application of medium and long-term forecasting technology for regional wind and photovoltaic resources and generation capacity",(5204BB170007)Special Fund Project of Hebei Provincial Government(19214310D).
文摘Predicting wind power gen eration over the medium and long term is helpful for dispatchi ng departme nts,as it aids in constructing generation plans and electricity market transactions.This study presents a monthly wind power gen eration forecast!ng method based on a climate model and long short-term memory(LSTM)n eural n etwork.A non linear mappi ng model is established between the meteorological elements and wind power monthly utilization hours.After considering the meteorological data(as predicted for the future)and new installed capacity planning,the monthly wind power gen eration forecast results are output.A case study shows the effectiveness of the prediction method.
文摘In recent years, there has been introduction of alternative energy sources such as wind energy. However, wind speed is not constant and wind power output is proportional to the cube of the wind speed. In order to control the power output for wind power generators as accurately as possible, a method of wind speed estimation is required. In this paper, a technique considers that wind speed in the order of 1 - 30 seconds is investigated in confirming the validity of the Auto Regressive model (AR), Kalman Filter (KF) and Neural Network (NN) to forecast wind speed. This paper compares the simulation results of the forecast wind speed for the power output forecast of wind power generator by using AR, KF and NN.
基金This research is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61902158).
文摘The inherent randomness,intermittence and volatility of wind power generation compromise the quality of the wind power system,resulting in uncertainty in the system’s optimal scheduling.As a result,it’s critical to improve power quality and assure real-time power grid scheduling and grid-connected wind farm operation.Inferred statistics are utilized in this research to infer general features based on the selected information,confirming that there are differences between two forecasting categories:Forecast Category 1(0-11 h ahead)and Forecast Category 2(12-23 h ahead).In z-tests,the null hypothesis provides the corresponding quantitative findings.To verify the final performance of the prediction findings,five benchmark methodologies are used:Persistence model,LMNN(Multilayer Perceptron with LMlearningmethods),NARX(Nonlinear autoregressive exogenous neural networkmodel),LMRNN(RNNs with LM training methods)and LSTM(Long short-term memory neural network).Experiments using a real dataset show that the LSTM network has the highest forecasting accuracy when compared to other benchmark approaches including persistence model,LMNN,NARX network,and LMRNN,and the 23-steps forecasting accuracy has improved by 19.61%.
基金supported by a State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co.,Ltd.Economic and Technical Research Institute Project(Key Technologies and Empirical Research of Diversified Integrated Operation of User-Side Energy Storage in Power Market Environment,No.5211JY19000W)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Research on Power Market Management to Promote Large-Scale New Energy Consumption,No.71804045).
文摘In the electricity market,fluctuations in real-time prices are unstable,and changes in short-term load are determined by many factors.By studying the timing of charging and discharging,as well as the economic benefits of energy storage in the process of participating in the power market,this paper takes energy storage scheduling as merely one factor affecting short-term power load,which affects short-term load time series along with time-of-use price,holidays,and temperature.A deep learning network is used to predict the short-term load,a convolutional neural network(CNN)is used to extract the features,and a long short-term memory(LSTM)network is used to learn the temporal characteristics of the load value,which can effectively improve prediction accuracy.Taking the load data of a certain region as an example,the CNN-LSTM prediction model is compared with the single LSTM prediction model.The experimental results show that the CNN-LSTM deep learning network with the participation of energy storage in dispatching can have high prediction accuracy for short-term power load forecasting.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No50738001)the National Basic Research Program of China (973Program) (No2006CB705501)
文摘Based on an available parking space occupancy (APSO) survey conducted in Nanjing, China, an APSO forecasting model is proposed. The APSO survey results indicate that the time series of APSO with different time-sections are periodical and self-similar, and the fluctuation of the APSO increases with the decrease in time-sections. Taking the short-time change behavior into account, an APSO forecasting model combined wavelet analysis and a weighted Markov chain is presented. In this model, an original APSO time series is first decomposed by wavelet analysis, and the results include low frequency signals representing the basic trends of APSO and several high frequency signals representing disturbances of the APSO. Then different Markov models are used to forecast the changes of low and high frequency signals, respectively. Finally, integrating the predicted results induces the final forecasted APSO. A case study verifies the applicability of the proposed model. The comparisons between measured and forecasted results show that the model is a competent model and its accuracy relies on real-time update of the APSO database.
文摘There are a lot of methods in city water consumption short-term forecasting both inside and outside the country. But among these methods there exist many advantages and shortcomings in model establishing, solving and predicting accuracy, speed, applicability. This article draws lessons from other realm mature methods after many years′ study. It′s systematically studied and compared to predict the water consumption in accuracy, speed, effect and applicability among the time series triangle function method, artificial neural network method, gray system theories method, wavelet analytical method.
文摘Wind and solar energy are two popular forms of renewable energy used in microgrids and facilitating the transition towards net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.However,they are exceedingly unpredictable since they rely highly on weather and atmospheric conditions.In microgrids,smart energy management systems,such as integrated demand response programs,are permanently established on a step-ahead basis,which means that accu-rate forecasting of wind speed and solar irradiance intervals is becoming increasingly crucial to the optimal operation and planning of microgrids.With this in mind,a novel“bidirectional long short-term memory network”(Bi-LSTM)-based,deep stacked,sequence-to-sequence autoencoder(S2SAE)forecasting model for predicting short-term solar irradiation and wind speed was developed and evaluated in MATLAB.To create a deep stacked S2SAE prediction model,a deep Bi-LSTM-based encoder and decoder are stacked on top of one another to reduce the dimension of the input sequence,extract its features,and then reconstruct it to produce the forecasts.Hyperparameters of the proposed deep stacked S2SAE forecasting model were optimized using the Bayesian optimization algorithm.Moreover,the forecasting performance of the proposed Bi-LSTM-based deep stacked S2SAE model was compared to three other deep,and shallow stacked S2SAEs,i.e.,the LSTM-based deep stacked S2SAE model,gated recurrent unit-based deep stacked S2SAE model,and Bi-LSTM-based shallow stacked S2SAE model.All these models were also optimized and modeled in MATLAB.The results simulated based on actual data confirmed that the proposed model outperformed the alternatives by achieving an accuracy of up to 99.7%,which evidenced the high reliability of the proposed forecasting.