New Starting-point,New Challenges Sino——Russian Relations in the New Century

Through almost ten years of development since the independence of the RussianFederation, Sino-Russian relations has achieved remarkable progress withwhich both feel satisfied and won high praise from the international community.Looking forward into the new century, how to further enhance relations betweenBeijing and Moscow and further promote their strategic cooperative partnership soas to make more contributions to the world peace and development are

EU Developments and Sino-EU Relations

Last year's economic growth in the European Union, renewal of the Franco-German axis, and EU cohesion in response to Donald Trump and Brexit ought to be healthy signs of recovery, but populism's restraint affects EU integration. If the fallout from Brexit is any measure of the future, inconsistent leadership will be forced to dodge internal and external complications for some time, as the EU faces intractable political and economic pressure from multiple parties. Although separation and integration need not remain diametrical poles, the destiny, international status, and influence of the EU and member states has been predicated on integration. Given current economic and demographic factors, enhancing the Union's attractiveness while handling other issues will make the EU a weak global actor. Lacking confidence, strategic cohesion and protective defenses, the EU in forthcoming years could witness no significant progress. EU member states are haunted by populism, terrorism,extremism and economic inequality. Sino-EU relations will see continued cooperation with a risk of turbulence.

保革政治和解与国家发展道路转型--泰国2023年回顾与2024年展望

政治方面,2023年泰国新一轮大选历经波折组成跨阵营的联合政府,最终为泰党侯选人赛塔当选第30任总理,成功化解了组阁危机,“保革和解”推动了泰国民主进程;但2023年大选促进泰国极左翼党派远进党的强势崛起,泰国政治格局由保革长期对立转变为“三足鼎立”,泰国渐趋稳定的政局仍存在政治冲突的风险。经济方面,泰国赛塔政府极力推行“经济疗法”,重启泰国旅游、延缓农民还贷期限、降低居民生活成本、吸引外商直接投资和减免税收等系列措施以提振经济,但受总理选举形成的“政治真空”、出口贸易收缩、制造业指数下降和旅游服务业复苏减缓等因素的叠加影响,全年经济增长低于预期。外交方面,弘扬“大国平衡”外交传统,恢复与美国的同盟关系并寻求与美国跨国企业的投资合作;支持高质量共建“一带一路”,持续构建与中国的命运共同体关系;实行“积极主动的经济外交”,加强与中国、美国、日本等国家和新兴经济体在投资、经贸和可持续发展方面的友好合作;依托东盟开展区域合作及在国际事务中发挥建设性作用。展望2024年,泰国将开启“增量改革”以促进经济增长和国家发展道路转型,进一步拓展绿色经济、数字经济和新能源等产业的发展空间,政治和外交服务于经济增长目标,泰国复苏增长可期。

Review and Prospects of Sino－Japanese Relations －In Commemoration of the 25th Anniversary of the Normalization of Sino－Japanese Diplomatic Relations

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Dose-Injury Relation as a Model for Uncertainty Propagation from Input Dose to Target Dose

We study a general framework for assessing the injury probability corresponding to an input dose quantity. In many applications, the true value of input dose may not be directly measurable. Instead, the input dose is estimated from measurable/controllable quantities via numerical simulations using assumed representative parameter values. We aim at developing a simple modeling framework for accommodating all uncertainties, including the discrepancy between the estimated input dose and the true input dose. We first interpret the widely used logistic dose-injury model as the result of dose propagation uncertainty from input dose to target dose at the active site for injury where the binary outcome is completely determined by the target dose. We specify the symmetric logistic dose-injury function using two shape parameters: the median injury dose and the 10 - 90 percentile width. We relate the two shape parameters of injury function to the mean and standard deviation of the dose propagation uncertainty. We find 1) a larger total uncertainty will spread more the dose-response function, increasing the 10 - 90 percentile width and 2) a systematic over-estimate of the input dose will shift the injury probability toward the right along the estimated input dose. This framework provides a way of revising an established injury model for a particular test population to predict the injury model for a new population with different distributions of parameters that affect the dose propagation and dose estimation. In addition to modeling dose propagation uncertainty, we propose a new 3-parameter model to include the skewness of injury function. The proposed 3-parameter function form is based on shifted log-normal distribution of dose propagation uncertainty and is approximately invariant when other uncertainties are added. The proposed 3-parameter function form provides a framework for extending skewed injury model from a test population to a target population in application.

3-D Animation as Applied to the Solving of Coupling Relations in the 6-DOF Parallel Robot

How to solve the coupling relations in a 6 - DOF parallel robot quickly and accurately within the limits of realtime control is a critical problem. In traditional analytic method, the complicated mathemtical model must first be constructed and then solved by programming.Obviously, this method is not very practical. This paper,therefore, proposes a new way of approach with a new method using 3- D animation for the solving of coupling relations in the 6 - DOF parallel robot. This method is much simpler and its solving accuracy approaches that of the more complicated analytic method.

Global Cyberspace Governance: State Actors and the China-US Cyber Relationship

The rising role of state actors,in particular cyber powers in cyberspace governance,has become a promine nt feature of the governance process.All countries begin to take more proactive measures,in terms of building cyber capacities,and getting more involved in global cyberspace governance.This process will be determined upon the interactions of China and the US to be framed within the laws and regulations of global cyberspace governance.

The Characteristics of 30-60 Day Oscillation and Its Relations to the Interannual Oscillations

The characteristics of 30-60 day oscillation (hereafter called LFO ) of the outgoing longwave radiation data (OLR) and its relations to the interannual oscillations of the sea surface temperature (SST) are investigated by using the daily OLR data for the period from January, 1979 to December, 1987 and the corresponding monthly SST data. It is found that the LFO the band the interannual oscillations of the SST monthly anomaly (SSTA) interact each other and they all relate to the occurrence and development of El Nino events closely. Before El Nino event happens, it contributes to the SST's wanning up and to the SST's quasi-biennial oscillation (called QBO for brevity) and three and half years oscillation (called SO for short) being in warm water phase in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific (ECP and EEP) that the LFO in the equatorial western Pacific (EWP) enhances and propagates eastward; When El Nino event takes place, the LFO, SSTA and SSTA's QBO and SO in the EEP interact and strengthen each other; But the warmer SST and the SSTA's QBO and SO in the warm water phase in the EEP contribute to the LFO's weakening in the equatorial Pacific. Moreover, these contribute to the SST in the EEP becoming cold and the SSTA's QBO and SO in the EWP being in cold water phase and then impel the El Nino event to end.

New Political Trends in Africa and the Impact on China-Africa Relations

During the past few years, African political development has demonstrated positive trends: democratic election practices and civilmilitary relations have become more rational; multi-party democracy has led to diversified patterns, with Party-led administrations becoming a marked phenomenon in several countries; endogenous political values have become highlighted, and developmental state theory has surged,propelling reforms in governance models. African countries are eagerly exploring paths of development that are suited to their conditions, and pushing forward transformations in both the economy and governance. In the meantime, African countries remain vulnerable to the tumultuous external environment, and as such suffer from certain"growing pains"as part of this process. These trends will consolidate the strategic base of China-Africa cooperation. The prospects of a closer China-Africa community with a shared future are becoming more promising.

Genetic relationship of rapeseed yield-related traits revealed by elite lines under multiple environments

To provide a theoretical basis for further improvement of Brassica napus yield, additive dominance with additive - by - additive epistatic effects （ ADAA） genetic model and a 6 X 8 partial dial- lel cross design were used to analyze the genetic effects and correlations of five yield related traits of 14 excellent Brassica napus parental lines and their 46 and F2 populations. The results showed that silique density （SD） , siliques per plant （SPP） , seeds per silique （SPS） and thousand - seed weight （TSW） exhibited not only additive and dominant effects, but also significant epistatic effects. The dominant effects of all five yield - related traits were obviously greater than their additive effects and epistatic effects. Yield per plant （YPP） showed significant genetic correlation with SD, SPP and SPS, and the main component of the genetic correlation was the dominance correlation. SPP and SPS both showed a significant negative correlation with TSW. The SD of rapeseed was genetically correlated with all three components of yield to a certain extent, and there were different components of genetic effects positively correlated with the three yield components, indicating that SD is a potential trait to reconcile the conflict between TSW and SPP as well as SPS.

全球价值链重构下两岸经贸关系的发展趋向--针对两个典型事件的综合效应评估分析

近年来,贸易保护主义、新一轮工业革命、区域合作活动、新冠肺炎疫情等多重因素叠加作用,推动全球价值链步入深度调整和重构时期,两岸经贸关系发展因而面临新的挑战与机遇。本文以中美贸易争端和RCEP签署实施为两个典型事件,基于GTAP模型模拟量化评估全球价值链重构对于两岸经贸关系发展的影响效应。结果表明:由两个典型事件所表征的全球价值链的分散化和区域化趋势,都会造成一定的产能重置效应与贸易转移效应,影响中国台湾地区厂商的跨境生产布局与相关经济体之间的双边贸易格局;在此过程中,中国台湾地区厂商需要权衡贸易成本与生产效率以决定在中国内地的产能配置结构,而两岸贸易规模将在一定程度上被削弱,中国台湾地区也面临在区域价值链构建过程中被边缘化的风险。综合判断,全球价值链重构恰为中国内地推动经济结构转型、提升全球生产分工效能提供了迫切动力;而未来两岸经贸关系的发展,在极大程度上将取决于中国内地经济转型与区域经济整合的成效。

Potential Toxicological and Cardiopulmonary Effects of PM2,5 Exposure and Related Mortality:Findings of Recent Studies Published during 2003-2013

Air pollution has environmental issue owing become a serious to its diverse harmful effects on the physical and biological environment. According to the Environmental Protection Agency （EPA） and the World Health Organization （WHO）, air pollution affects millions of people worldwide. Hundreds of thousands of deaths each year and a range of diseases, particularly among vulnerable groups （i.e., children, the elderly, and people with special medical conditions）, are attributed to air pollution. These effects are not always caused by single pollutant in the air; rather, they are considered consequences of the multi-pollutants to which people are simultaneously exposed.

Relations Between Stabilities and Structures of Closo Borane Dianions

An effective method to investigate the stabilities of a series of new closo-BnHn2- （n = 12, 14, 16, 18, 20, 22, 24, 30） was put forward with the aid of G96PW91/SHC calculations. Stabilities are related to the relative stabilized energies （RSE） and the 2e3c bound geometries of closo-BnHn2-. The structures in which a boron atom connects to four atoms up to seven are stable and appear in many borides because of the lower relative stabilized energy. In geometries, both triangular and quadrangular faces are in favor of forming the structures of closo-BnHn2-. The energies of optimized geometries support the existence of these new compounds. By employing both RSE and AE per boron atom in cage, the stabilities were studied to predict the probabilities of unknown clusters in existence. The electron-deficient clusters can be understood that the positive holes should be disperse to every triangular face and lead to share the holes, wherever there are not enough electrons to occupy them. The negative charges which anions carry distribute to 2e3c bonds to increase the stabilities.

Innovatory technical cooperation between Sino-Russian lndustries

Discusses the necessity for China and Russia to change the existing small scale and level bilateral economic and trade relations for better by breaking away from traditional thoughts and formulating new thoughts on development of economic and trade relations between the two countries, and suggests the need to develop all azimuth and multi level economic and trade relations with emphasis on industrial cooperations to develop the leading industries of these two countries in accord with the strategic partnership between these two countries for the 21 century to suit the changes in the formation of new multi pole international order, and concludes the industries in these two countries can be made structurally complementary to each other and coexistent with the leading industries by developing steady and reliable industrial cooperative relations to further strengthen the strategic partnership between the two countries.

Energy Balance-related Behaviors Are Related to Cardiometabolic Parameters and Predict Adiposity in 8-14-year-old Overweight Chinese Children One Year Later

To identify target energy balance-related behaviors（ERBs）,baseline data from 141overweight or obese schoolchildren（aged 8-14years old）was used to predict adiposity[body mass index（BMI）and fat percentage]one year later.The ERBs included a modified Dietary Approach to Stop Hypertension diet score（DASH score）,leisure-time physical activity（PA,days/week）,and leisure screen time（minutes/day）.Several cardiometabolic variables were measured in the fasting state, including systolic blood pressure （SBP）, diastolic blood pressure （DBP）, blood glucose （GLU）, total cholesterol （TC）, triglycerides （TG）, low-density lipoprotein （LDL-C）, and high-density lipoprotein （HDL-C）.

Multi-fractal Behaviors of Relative Humidity over China

The multi-fractal ity over China are studied behaviors of relative humid using the multi-fractal de trended fluctuation analysis （DFA） method. Three multi fractal parameters （the spectrum width Aa, the asymmetry Aaas, and the long-range correlation exponent a0） of the singularity spectrum are introduced to quantify the multi-fractal behaviors. The results show that multi-frac tality exists in daily humidity records over most stations in China and is mainly due to the broad distribution of the probability density of the sequence values. Strong multi fractal behaviors over some stations in the Yunnan, Guangdong, and Inner Mongolia provinces are obvious. These behaviors are mainly caused by different long range correlations between large and small fluctuations. The asymmetry of the singularity of relative humidity records is weak, except for a small number of stations in the far east and west of China, where the singularity spec trum is left-skewed. Finally, the long-range correlations in North China are stronger than those in South China, which indicates better predictability in North China. By studying the parameters of the multi-fractal spectrum, various data of long-range power law correlations of the relative humidity records are obtained, which may pro vide theoretical support for climate prediction.

The energetic relationship among geoeffective solar flares, associated CMEs and SEPs

Major solar eruptions （flares, coronal mass ejections （CMEs） and solar energetic particles （SEPs）） strongly influence geospace and space weather. Currently, the mechanism of their influence on space weather is not well understood and requires a detailed study of the energetic relationship among these eruptive phenomena. From this perspective, we investigate 30 flares （observed by RHESSI）, followed by weak to strong geomagnetic storms. Spectral analysis of these flares suggests a new power-law relationship （r - 0.79） between the hard X-ray （HXR） spectral index （before flarepeak） and linear speed of the associated CME observed by LASCO/SOHO. For 12 flares which were followed by SEP enhancement near Earth, HXR and SEP spectral analysis reveals a new scaling law （r - 0.9） between the hardest X-ray flare spectrum and the hardest SEP spectrum. Furthermore, a strong correlation is obtained between the linear speed of the CME and the hardest spectrum of the corresponding SEP event （r - 0.96）. We propose that the potentially geoeffective flare and associated CME and SEP are well-connected through a possible feedback mechanism, and should be regarded within the framework of a solar eruption. Owing to their space weather effects, these new results will help improve our current understanding of the Sun-Earth relationship, which is a major goal of research programs in heliophysics.

New Sino-US Strategic Gambling and China’s Strategy

Since confidence is fading and anxiety is increasing in the US,America’s China policy has become more radical. In the short term, the US has the upper hand and China is in a relatively passive position. In the medium-and long-term, there will be more balance between them. This current strategic gambling between China and the US will be the major issue of international politics in the first half of the 21 st century and the most prominent external challenge China faces. China needs to make strategic adjustments but the gamble may be worthwhile in correcting imbalance in the international order and in the co-evolution of the two countries.