Since the beginning of the 21st century,major earthquakes have frequently occurred worldwide.To explore the impact of astronomical factors on earthquakes,in this study,the statistical analysis method of correlation is...Since the beginning of the 21st century,major earthquakes have frequently occurred worldwide.To explore the impact of astronomical factors on earthquakes,in this study,the statistical analysis method of correlation is used to systematically analyze the effects of astronomical factors,such as solar activity,Earth’s rotation,lunar declination angle,celestial tidal force,and other phenomena on M≥8 global earthquakes at the beginning of the 21st century.With regard to solar activity,this study focuses on the analysis of the 11-year and century cycles of solar activity.The causal relationship of the Earth’s rotation is not obvious in this work and previous works;in contrast,the valley period of the solar activity century cycle may be an important astronomical factor leading to the frequent occurrence of global earthquakes at the beginning of the 21st century.This topic warrants further study.展开更多
Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, China Seismological Bureau, Lanzhou 730000, China 2) Institute of Geology, China Seismological Bureau, Beijing 100029, China
A systematic study on ″ring phenomena″ frequently occurring before great earthquakes has made in this paper, which has analyzed the features of ring distributions before 16 great earthquakes and part of large ear...A systematic study on ″ring phenomena″ frequently occurring before great earthquakes has made in this paper, which has analyzed the features of ring distributions before 16 great earthquakes and part of large earthquakes in China and its boundary areas, and discussed their features of generality, regularity and predictive meaning. The results have showed that moderate earthquakes or larger earthquakes distribute around the epicenter like a ring from decades to hundred years before the great earthquakes of magnitude more than 7, which is a general phenomenon of great earthquakes without an exception. The active ring generally occurs in the areas from hundreds to thousands of kilometers from the epicenter(according to the magnitude). The seismicity in the ring has three basic stages with different features. in the first stage, seismicity remains at low level and the earthquakes distribute scatteredly, while the source area of the future great earthquake remains quiet; in the second stage, the seismicity strengthens, whose frequency, intensity, concentrated degree, released rate of strain and ratio of distributed area etc. increase, while the quiet area decreases or disappears; in the third stage, the seismicity is weaker than in the former stage, and the quiet area appears again. The source area surrounded by the active ring might have three periods of activity(called as early term, medium term and late term foreshocks activity). The length of the quiet area undergoes the process from large to small, then to large. Therefore, we can estimate the occurring place, magnitude and seismogenic stage of great earthquake according to the area,length and the seismicity in the active ring, which is valuable to make a long term prediction of great earthquakes. At last, we had a preliminary discussion on the mechanism of active ring formation.展开更多
Based on analyzing space inhomogeneous image of strong earthquake activity, the image of source rupture and the mechanical property of the source fault in Sichuan-Yunnan region, the relations among the strong earthqua...Based on analyzing space inhomogeneous image of strong earthquake activity, the image of source rupture and the mechanical property of the source fault in Sichuan-Yunnan region, the relations among the strong earthquake activity, active fault, modern movement status of active blocks and structural background of the deep media have been discussed, and the characteristics of strong earthquake activity and possible mechanism have been also discussed.展开更多
Using the method of Single-link Cluster(SLC),analyzing the pattern of time sliding of SLCparameters,the earthquake activity in the western Sichuan-Yunnan of China is studiedcombining with the regional earthquake catal...Using the method of Single-link Cluster(SLC),analyzing the pattern of time sliding of SLCparameters,the earthquake activity in the western Sichuan-Yunnan of China is studiedcombining with the regional earthquake catalogue since 1970 and the tectonic background.Comparing with the high level of earthquake activity in 1970’s and the low in 1980’s,theearthquake activity is in general at the middle level in 1990’s.This paper suggests that SLCmethod,which considers the temporal and spatial relationship among earthquake events,could be adopted to analyze the trend of regional earthquake activity,it is very useful forstudying seismic activity.展开更多
The characteristics of seismic activity in different time-spatial domain before the M_W9.0 earthquake were studied. The results are as follows:The activity of the deep earthquakes in the north boundary zone of the Aus...The characteristics of seismic activity in different time-spatial domain before the M_W9.0 earthquake were studied. The results are as follows:The activity of the deep earthquakes in the north boundary zone of the Australian plate had been evidently strengthened since 1994, showing an increased frequency, magnitude and depth, especially in regards to the heterogeneous distribution of the earthquake depth (namely between 500km and 689km). Meanwhile the shallow earthquakes of M≥7.0 in the Sumatra island and its vicinity had been obviously strengthened too, and formed a strengthening area with a length of about 1000 km and width 300 km. ②The time distribution of global strong earthquakes with M≥7.0 shows that the character of anomalous seismic quiescence-activity one year before the M_W9.0 earthquake and during its active period, the strong earthquakes formed a seismic belt striking in NWW direction. At the same time, there is a seismic gap formed by earthquakes of M≥5.0 in the epicenter and its neighboring region. ③Two deep earthquakes of M≥7.0 occurred in the west and in the east of the north boundary zone of the Australian plate half year ago. It is notable that one of them occurred in the Sumatra island where no deep earthquake with M≥6.0 has occurred in the past thirty years. ④The space distribution of moderate shocks occurring three days ago exhibited a NWW-strike seismic belt along the north boundary zone of the Australian plate. ⑤The activity of volcanoes distributed in the north boundary zone of the Australian plate had been strengthened in the past 4 years, especially several months before the occurrence of the M_W9.0 earthquake.展开更多
Based on the research and the division of the active tectonic blocks and their boundaries on the Chinese mainland, the feature of the large earthquake activities on the 24 boundaries between the 6 active tectonic bloc...Based on the research and the division of the active tectonic blocks and their boundaries on the Chinese mainland, the feature of the large earthquake activities on the 24 boundaries between the 6 active tectonic block regions (grade Ⅰ) and the 22 active tectonic blocks (grade Ⅱ) are studied. The seismicity levels on the active tectonic block boundaries are discussed considering the large earthquake frequency and the released strain energy in unit distance and time. The theoretic maximal magnitude and the recurrence period of each boundary are then calculated from the G-R relation. By comparing this with the actual earthquake records, it is found that the intensities of the earthquake deduced from the seismic activity parameter (a/b) on the main active boundaries on the Chinese mainland are consistent with that of the natural earthquakes. Meanwhile, an inverse relation is found between the recurrence periods of large earthquakes and the tectonic motion rate on the boundaries. These results show that the a, b values of each boundary obtained in this paper are valuable. In addition, the present seismic activities and hazards of these boundaries are also probed into with the historical data and their elapsed time on each boundary based on the hypothesis that the large earthquakes satisfy Poisson distribution.展开更多
Earthquake activities in history are characterized by active and quiet periods. In the quiet period, the place where earthquake M_≥6 occurred means more elastic energy store and speedy energy accumulation there. When...Earthquake activities in history are characterized by active and quiet periods. In the quiet period, the place where earthquake M_≥6 occurred means more elastic energy store and speedy energy accumulation there. When an active period of big earthquake activity appeared in wide region, in the place where earthquake (M_≥6) occurred in the past quiet period, the big earthquake with magnitude of 7 or more often occur there. We call the above-mentioned judgement for predicting big earthquake the 'criterion of activity in quiescence'. The criterion is relatively effective for predicting location of big earthquake. In general, error of predicting epicenter is no more than 100 km. According to the criterion, we made successfully a middle-term prediction on the 1996 Lijiang earthquake in Yunnan Province, the error of predicted location is about 50 km. Besides, the 1994 Taiwan strait earthquake (M_s=7.3), the 1995 Yunnan-Myanmar boundary earthquake (M_s=7.2) and the Mani earthquake (M_s=7.9) in north Tibet are accordant with the retrospective predictions by the 'criterion of activity in quiescence'. The windows of 'activity in quiescence' identified statistically by us are 1940-1945, 1958-1961 and 1979-1986. Using the 'criterion of activity in quiescence' to predict big earthquake in the mainland of China,the earthquake defined by 'activity in quiescence' has magnitude of 6 or more; For the Himalayas seismic belt, the Pacific seismic belt and the north-west boundary seismic belt of Xinjiang, the earthquake defined by 'activity in quiescence' has magnitude of 7, which is corresponding to earthquake with magnitude of much more than 7 in future. For the regions where there are not tectonically and historically a possibility of occurring big earthquake (M_s=7), the criterion of activity in quiescence is not effective.展开更多
Two great earthquakes of MS8.5 and MS8.3 determined by the China Earthquake Networks Center (CENC) occurred successively on September 12 and 13, 2007 in the sea area to the south of Sumatra, which is another group of ...Two great earthquakes of MS8.5 and MS8.3 determined by the China Earthquake Networks Center (CENC) occurred successively on September 12 and 13, 2007 in the sea area to the south of Sumatra, which is another group of large earthquakes after MS8.7 event on December 26, 2004 and MS8.5 event on March 29, 2005. The展开更多
This paper reviews and analyses briefly the general characteristics of shallow strong earthquakes (MS≥6.0, focal depth h≤70 km) in space, time and magnitude and earthquake fatalities of Chinese mainland in the cente...This paper reviews and analyses briefly the general characteristics of shallow strong earthquakes (MS≥6.0, focal depth h≤70 km) in space, time and magnitude and earthquake fatalities of Chinese mainland in the centenary from 1901 to 2001. During the period from 1901 to 2001, there occurred about 420 strong shallow earthquakes with magnitude MS≥6.0, 88% of them occurred in the western part of the Chinese mainland, which might be related to the strong deformation and motion of the active blocks in the western part. The average focal depth (25 km) in the western part is deeper than that (16 km) in the eastern part, which might be related to obviously thicker crust in the western part. The inhomogeneous distribution of focal depths with the depth profile is related to the variation of frictional and rheologic characteristics with depth in the crust. The shallow strong earthquake activity of Chinese mainland shows a tempo-spatial clustering process. The relation between earthquake magnitude MS and cumulative frequency Nc is lgNc=8.64–0.99MS. About 600 000 people died in the earthquakes of Chinese mainland from 1901 to 2001, the most serious earthquake live losses occurred in Hebei Province (250 723 people died) and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (246 269 died). There is no a statistically linear relationship between earthquake live losses and magnitudes. The statistical relationship between the earthquake deaths D and cumulative frequency Nc is lgNc=2.40–0.39lgD, which shows a fractal distribution.展开更多
文摘Since the beginning of the 21st century,major earthquakes have frequently occurred worldwide.To explore the impact of astronomical factors on earthquakes,in this study,the statistical analysis method of correlation is used to systematically analyze the effects of astronomical factors,such as solar activity,Earth’s rotation,lunar declination angle,celestial tidal force,and other phenomena on M≥8 global earthquakes at the beginning of the 21st century.With regard to solar activity,this study focuses on the analysis of the 11-year and century cycles of solar activity.The causal relationship of the Earth’s rotation is not obvious in this work and previous works;in contrast,the valley period of the solar activity century cycle may be an important astronomical factor leading to the frequent occurrence of global earthquakes at the beginning of the 21st century.This topic warrants further study.
基金State Key Basic Research Development and Programming Project (G19980407-04) and the Project during the ninth Five-Year Plan of Gansu Province (GK973-2-110A).
文摘Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, China Seismological Bureau, Lanzhou 730000, China 2) Institute of Geology, China Seismological Bureau, Beijing 100029, China
文摘A systematic study on ″ring phenomena″ frequently occurring before great earthquakes has made in this paper, which has analyzed the features of ring distributions before 16 great earthquakes and part of large earthquakes in China and its boundary areas, and discussed their features of generality, regularity and predictive meaning. The results have showed that moderate earthquakes or larger earthquakes distribute around the epicenter like a ring from decades to hundred years before the great earthquakes of magnitude more than 7, which is a general phenomenon of great earthquakes without an exception. The active ring generally occurs in the areas from hundreds to thousands of kilometers from the epicenter(according to the magnitude). The seismicity in the ring has three basic stages with different features. in the first stage, seismicity remains at low level and the earthquakes distribute scatteredly, while the source area of the future great earthquake remains quiet; in the second stage, the seismicity strengthens, whose frequency, intensity, concentrated degree, released rate of strain and ratio of distributed area etc. increase, while the quiet area decreases or disappears; in the third stage, the seismicity is weaker than in the former stage, and the quiet area appears again. The source area surrounded by the active ring might have three periods of activity(called as early term, medium term and late term foreshocks activity). The length of the quiet area undergoes the process from large to small, then to large. Therefore, we can estimate the occurring place, magnitude and seismogenic stage of great earthquake according to the area,length and the seismicity in the active ring, which is valuable to make a long term prediction of great earthquakes. At last, we had a preliminary discussion on the mechanism of active ring formation.
基金"Strong Earthquake Mechanism and Forecast in China’s Continent(95-13-05-05)and the Natural Science Funds of Yunnan Province(97D015G),China.
文摘Based on analyzing space inhomogeneous image of strong earthquake activity, the image of source rupture and the mechanical property of the source fault in Sichuan-Yunnan region, the relations among the strong earthquake activity, active fault, modern movement status of active blocks and structural background of the deep media have been discussed, and the characteristics of strong earthquake activity and possible mechanism have been also discussed.
基金This research was sponsored by the key project of the Joint Earthquake Science Foundaion of China (95-07-01425) and the National Science Foundation of China (49674214).
文摘Using the method of Single-link Cluster(SLC),analyzing the pattern of time sliding of SLCparameters,the earthquake activity in the western Sichuan-Yunnan of China is studiedcombining with the regional earthquake catalogue since 1970 and the tectonic background.Comparing with the high level of earthquake activity in 1970’s and the low in 1980’s,theearthquake activity is in general at the middle level in 1990’s.This paper suggests that SLCmethod,which considers the temporal and spatial relationship among earthquake events,could be adopted to analyze the trend of regional earthquake activity,it is very useful forstudying seismic activity.
基金theJointEarthquakeScienceFoundationofChina Earthquake Administration (605033) and (106078) .
文摘The characteristics of seismic activity in different time-spatial domain before the M_W9.0 earthquake were studied. The results are as follows:The activity of the deep earthquakes in the north boundary zone of the Australian plate had been evidently strengthened since 1994, showing an increased frequency, magnitude and depth, especially in regards to the heterogeneous distribution of the earthquake depth (namely between 500km and 689km). Meanwhile the shallow earthquakes of M≥7.0 in the Sumatra island and its vicinity had been obviously strengthened too, and formed a strengthening area with a length of about 1000 km and width 300 km. ②The time distribution of global strong earthquakes with M≥7.0 shows that the character of anomalous seismic quiescence-activity one year before the M_W9.0 earthquake and during its active period, the strong earthquakes formed a seismic belt striking in NWW direction. At the same time, there is a seismic gap formed by earthquakes of M≥5.0 in the epicenter and its neighboring region. ③Two deep earthquakes of M≥7.0 occurred in the west and in the east of the north boundary zone of the Australian plate half year ago. It is notable that one of them occurred in the Sumatra island where no deep earthquake with M≥6.0 has occurred in the past thirty years. ④The space distribution of moderate shocks occurring three days ago exhibited a NWW-strike seismic belt along the north boundary zone of the Australian plate. ⑤The activity of volcanoes distributed in the north boundary zone of the Australian plate had been strengthened in the past 4 years, especially several months before the occurrence of the M_W9.0 earthquake.
基金The work was supported bythe public welfare programofthe Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2004DIA3J010)the special preparatoryresearch of national keyfun-damental research project (2002CCD01700)the Young Scientists Funds of Institute of Earthquake Science , CEA(QN200401) .
文摘Based on the research and the division of the active tectonic blocks and their boundaries on the Chinese mainland, the feature of the large earthquake activities on the 24 boundaries between the 6 active tectonic block regions (grade Ⅰ) and the 22 active tectonic blocks (grade Ⅱ) are studied. The seismicity levels on the active tectonic block boundaries are discussed considering the large earthquake frequency and the released strain energy in unit distance and time. The theoretic maximal magnitude and the recurrence period of each boundary are then calculated from the G-R relation. By comparing this with the actual earthquake records, it is found that the intensities of the earthquake deduced from the seismic activity parameter (a/b) on the main active boundaries on the Chinese mainland are consistent with that of the natural earthquakes. Meanwhile, an inverse relation is found between the recurrence periods of large earthquakes and the tectonic motion rate on the boundaries. These results show that the a, b values of each boundary obtained in this paper are valuable. In addition, the present seismic activities and hazards of these boundaries are also probed into with the historical data and their elapsed time on each boundary based on the hypothesis that the large earthquakes satisfy Poisson distribution.
基金State Natural Science Foundation of China!(49674210).
文摘Earthquake activities in history are characterized by active and quiet periods. In the quiet period, the place where earthquake M_≥6 occurred means more elastic energy store and speedy energy accumulation there. When an active period of big earthquake activity appeared in wide region, in the place where earthquake (M_≥6) occurred in the past quiet period, the big earthquake with magnitude of 7 or more often occur there. We call the above-mentioned judgement for predicting big earthquake the 'criterion of activity in quiescence'. The criterion is relatively effective for predicting location of big earthquake. In general, error of predicting epicenter is no more than 100 km. According to the criterion, we made successfully a middle-term prediction on the 1996 Lijiang earthquake in Yunnan Province, the error of predicted location is about 50 km. Besides, the 1994 Taiwan strait earthquake (M_s=7.3), the 1995 Yunnan-Myanmar boundary earthquake (M_s=7.2) and the Mani earthquake (M_s=7.9) in north Tibet are accordant with the retrospective predictions by the 'criterion of activity in quiescence'. The windows of 'activity in quiescence' identified statistically by us are 1940-1945, 1958-1961 and 1979-1986. Using the 'criterion of activity in quiescence' to predict big earthquake in the mainland of China,the earthquake defined by 'activity in quiescence' has magnitude of 6 or more; For the Himalayas seismic belt, the Pacific seismic belt and the north-west boundary seismic belt of Xinjiang, the earthquake defined by 'activity in quiescence' has magnitude of 7, which is corresponding to earthquake with magnitude of much more than 7 in future. For the regions where there are not tectonically and historically a possibility of occurring big earthquake (M_s=7), the criterion of activity in quiescence is not effective.
基金Foundation item: Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (605033 and 106078)Contribution No.08FE3005, Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration
文摘Two great earthquakes of MS8.5 and MS8.3 determined by the China Earthquake Networks Center (CENC) occurred successively on September 12 and 13, 2007 in the sea area to the south of Sumatra, which is another group of large earthquakes after MS8.7 event on December 26, 2004 and MS8.5 event on March 29, 2005. The
基金Social Commonweal Research Project of the Ministry of Science and Technique (2004DIA3J010) and Joint Seis-mological Science Foundation of China (104016).
文摘This paper reviews and analyses briefly the general characteristics of shallow strong earthquakes (MS≥6.0, focal depth h≤70 km) in space, time and magnitude and earthquake fatalities of Chinese mainland in the centenary from 1901 to 2001. During the period from 1901 to 2001, there occurred about 420 strong shallow earthquakes with magnitude MS≥6.0, 88% of them occurred in the western part of the Chinese mainland, which might be related to the strong deformation and motion of the active blocks in the western part. The average focal depth (25 km) in the western part is deeper than that (16 km) in the eastern part, which might be related to obviously thicker crust in the western part. The inhomogeneous distribution of focal depths with the depth profile is related to the variation of frictional and rheologic characteristics with depth in the crust. The shallow strong earthquake activity of Chinese mainland shows a tempo-spatial clustering process. The relation between earthquake magnitude MS and cumulative frequency Nc is lgNc=8.64–0.99MS. About 600 000 people died in the earthquakes of Chinese mainland from 1901 to 2001, the most serious earthquake live losses occurred in Hebei Province (250 723 people died) and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (246 269 died). There is no a statistically linear relationship between earthquake live losses and magnitudes. The statistical relationship between the earthquake deaths D and cumulative frequency Nc is lgNc=2.40–0.39lgD, which shows a fractal distribution.
