基于Sobol和EFAST法的枪弹转动角速度全局灵敏度仿真分析

为开展外弹道测试、动力学特性研究等需要,经常在枪弹外部安装各种用于飞行状态测量的装置。由于枪弹在发射及飞行中的状态受到各种随机因素的干扰,直接影响测量输出。为更好地开展试验设计及相关数据处理工作,采用姿态测量装置测量枪弹转动角速度的方案,以5自由度刚体弹道方程组为基础,采用基于蒙特卡洛打靶的Sobol全局灵敏度分析方法和傅里叶幅值灵敏度检验扩展法(EFAST),就姿态测量的输出对初速跳动、起始扰动等因素的敏感程度开展定量研究。定量分析结果表明:(1)初速和初始攻角对姿态测量装置沿弹体径向的输出影响较大,初速对姿态测量装置轴向输出的影响较大;(2)Sobol法和EFAST法均可定量分析参数对输出变量的贡献率,但EFAST法的计算更为稳健、高效。

Evaluation Indicator System of Low-carbon Landscape in Residential Areas: A Case Study of Garden Plant Landscape

Garden plant landscape is one of the main contents of low-carbon landscape design in residential areas. From the basic theory of garden plant landscaping, we put forth five principles and ideas concerning the building of evaluation indicator system of garden plant landscape, to establish the indicator system with ecological quality, recreational function and aesthetic effect as three layers. According to the characteristics of evaluation system, we use qualitative and quantitative integration method, coupled with analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and expert consulting method, to determine the weight of various factors. And we use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to test this indicator system, so as to provide a theoretical basis for the research on evaluation indicator system of low-carbon landscape.

Psychosis as an indicator of recurrent non-Hodgkin's lymphoma:a rare presentation

Psychotic manifestations of brain tumours are rare but described in the literature mostly along with other neurological defcits. Memory loss, diffculty in attention and concentration, depression, anxiety, and mood symptoms are commonly described in brain tumours. A schizophrenia-like picture without a defcit in motor or sensory function may land the clinician into a diagnostic dilemma. Primary central nervous system lymphoma （PCNSL） is a highly malignant disease with high mortality and needs immediate attention. Our case which had a unique recurrence in the postoperative period with psychotic symptoms can be an eye-opener to be more vigilant about underlying clinical extension.

基于S变换的临汾水平摆倾斜观测数据年变信息提取及预测指标确定

临汾台水平摆多年来监测能力及资料的映震能力备受关注,为推进长周期破年变分析在临汾台水平摆资料的应用,本文利用一种基于S变换时频分析方法的破年变信息分离提取方法,采用双向非对称阈值策略,结合R值评分及Molchan图表法,构建了临汾水平摆东西测项破年变预测指标,给出了长周期信号变化(ANA)和短周期信号变化(ONA)对于不同震级档的最佳阈值、最佳预报范围、最佳预报时窗,预报效能R值均大于R0值,可信度高。其中ANA指标对于500 km以内的ML≥5级的预报效能最好。

Cesarean Sections according to the Robson’s Classification in Two University Hospitals of Yaoundé: Indications and Maternofetal Outcome

Introduction: Cesarean section is a surgical intervention which consists in the extraction of a fetus from the uterus after its incision. The rate of cesarean section varies depending on the country and the health facility. For this reason, in 2015, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended the use of Robson’s classification to evaluate the practice of cesarean sections in order to identify the groups of women who had abnormally high rates. The objective of our study was to evaluate cesarean sections using the Robson’s classification in CHRACERH and in the Yaoundé Central Hospital (YCH). Methodology: We carried out a retrospective cross sectional and descriptive study in two (02) university hospitals in Yaoundé which took place from December 2017 to May 2018. We included in our study all women who gave birth over a period of two (02) years from January 2016 to December 2017 in these two health facilities. Our sampling was exhaustive over the study period. The parturients’ information was collected using an anonymous and pretested questionnaire. The Robson’s group of every parturient was determined. Descriptive parameters like mean and proportions were calculated. We compared the rates and indications of cesarean sections between the both hospitals using Chi2 test. Results: Out of 330 deliveries realized in CHRACERH, we had 90 cesarean sections;hence, a rate of 27.2%. Out of 1863 deliveries carried out at the YCH, 462 were by cesarean section, hence a rate of 24.8%. The women who belonged to groups 1, 3 and 5 contributed to the highest rates of cesarean sections in both hospitals: in CHRACERH, group 5 (31.1%), group 3 (20%) and group 1 (15.6%), at YCH: group 3 (22.5%), group 1 (21.6%) and group 5 (17.3%). The indications of the cesarean sections varied depending on the Robson’s group and the hospital, the principal indication in group 1 was acute fetal distress (28.6%) in CHRACERH and cephalopelvic disproportion (36.7%) at YCH. Cephalopelvic disproportion was the predominant indication in groups 3 of CHRACERH (44.4%) and YCH (39.2%). In groups 5, CHRACERH and of YCH, a scarred uterus was the principal indication for the cesarean section at 82.4% and 78.4% respectively. At CHRACERH, the maternofetal complications were more frequent in groups 1 and 2 at the YCH, this was the case mostly in groups 1 and 3. Conclusion: The Robson’s classification is an adequate tool for the evaluation and comparison of the rates of cesarean sections. The rates of cesarean section in CHRACERH (27.2%) and at YCH (24.8%) were higher than the rates recommended by WHO. Robson’s groups 1, 3 and 5 were identified as the groups most at risk for cesarean sections in the both hospitals.

Spatio-temporal Variation Characteristics of Extreme Climate Events and Their Teleconnections to Large-scale Ocean-atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Huaihe River Basin,China During 1959–2019

Huaihe River Basin(HRB) is located in China’s north-south climatic transition zone,which is very sensitive to global climate change.Based on the daily maximum temperature,minimum temperature,and precipitation data of 40 meteorological stations and nine monthly large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices data during 1959–2019,we present an assessment of the spatial and temporal variations of extreme temperature and precipitation events in the HRB using nine extreme climate indices,and analyze the teleconnection relationship between extreme climate indices and large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices.The results show that warm extreme indices show a significant(P < 0.05) increasing trend,while cold extreme indices(except for cold spell duration) and diurnal temperature range(DTR) show a significant decreasing trend.Furthermore,all extreme temperature indices show significant mutations during 1959-2019.Spatially,a stronger warming trend occurs in eastern HRB than western HRB,while maximum 5-d precipitation(Rx5day) and rainstorm days(R25) show an increasing trend in the southern,central,and northwestern regions of HRB.Arctic oscillation(AO),Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO),and East Atlantic/Western Russia(EA/WR) have a stronger correlation with extreme climate indices compared to other circulation indices.AO and AMO(EA/WR) exhibit a significant(P < 0.05) negative(positive)correlation with frost days and diurnal temperature range.Extreme warm events are strongly correlated with the variability of AMO and EA/WR in most parts of HRB,while extreme cold events are closely related to the variability of AO and AMO in eastern HRB.In contrast,AMO,AO,and EA/WR show limited impacts on extreme precipitation events in most parts of HRB.

China’s Major Economic Indicators in April

Industrial production In April,the total value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size was up 17.8 percent year-

Identifying Money Laundering Process Using Indicators： The Case of Albania

The main purpose of this study is to develop a mathematical model for calculating the probability of money laundering process, by monitoring the behavior of the client using 70 indicators of money laundering. The scientific method used in this study （received from the Modern Criminology） has great investigative power and it is widely applicable. Hopefully the practical application of this study will increase greatly the probability of detection and punishment of the clients who are implicated in the process of money laundering. In particular, this study will be useful for banks, Financial Intelligence Unit （FIU） of Albania, Department of Economic Crime at the Ministry of Domestic Affairs and Albanian State Intelligence Service （SIS）. Also, the investigation of money laundering will be a useful tool to detect other crimes, such as drug trafficking, human trafficking, illegal arms trade, etc. The prevention of money laundering is simultaneously a powerful strike against terrorism both on national and international levels.

A Bayesian multi-model inference methodology for imprecise momentindependent global sensitivity analysis of rock structures

Traditional global sensitivity analysis(GSA)neglects the epistemic uncertainties associated with the probabilistic characteristics(i.e.type of distribution type and its parameters)of input rock properties emanating due to the small size of datasets while mapping the relative importance of properties to the model response.This paper proposes an augmented Bayesian multi-model inference(BMMI)coupled with GSA methodology(BMMI-GSA)to address this issue by estimating the imprecision in the momentindependent sensitivity indices of rock structures arising from the small size of input data.The methodology employs BMMI to quantify the epistemic uncertainties associated with model type and parameters of input properties.The estimated uncertainties are propagated in estimating imprecision in moment-independent Borgonovo’s indices by employing a reweighting approach on candidate probabilistic models.The proposed methodology is showcased for a rock slope prone to stress-controlled failure in the Himalayan region of India.The proposed methodology was superior to the conventional GSA(neglects all epistemic uncertainties)and Bayesian coupled GSA(B-GSA)(neglects model uncertainty)due to its capability to incorporate the uncertainties in both model type and parameters of properties.Imprecise Borgonovo’s indices estimated via proposed methodology provide the confidence intervals of the sensitivity indices instead of their fixed-point estimates,which makes the user more informed in the data collection efforts.Analyses performed with the varying sample sizes suggested that the uncertainties in sensitivity indices reduce significantly with the increasing sample sizes.The accurate importance ranking of properties was only possible via samples of large sizes.Further,the impact of the prior knowledge in terms of prior ranges and distributions was significant;hence,any related assumption should be made carefully.

Executive Cotton Update U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators & the Cotton Supply Chain

Macroeconomic Overview:The U.S.dollar has fallen 4%against a broad collection of widely circulated currencies since January.While the magnitude of the decline may not appear large,it does signal an important reversal relative to recent years.Against the same broad collection of currencies,the U.S.dollar had consistently strengthened since 2013。

Surgical treatment of inflammatory bowel disease:From the gastroenterologist’s stand-point

Treatment of ulcerative colitis(UC)and Crohn’s disease(CD)represents,in the majority of cases,a real challenge to the gastroenterologist’s abilities and skills as well as a clinical test concerning his/her levels of medical knowledge and experience.During the last two decades,our pharmaceutical arsenal was significantly strengthened,especially after the introduction of the so-called biological agents,drugs which to a large extent not only improved the results of conservative treatment but also changed the natural history of the disease.However,colectomy is still necessary for some patients with severe UC although smaller compared to the past,precisely because of the improvements achieved in the available conservative treatment.Nevertheless,surgeries to treat colon dysplasia and cancer are increasing to some extent.At the same time,satisfactory improvements in surgical techniques,the pre-and post-operative care of patients,as well as the selection of the appropriate time for performing the surgery have been noticed.Regarding patients with CD,the improvement of conservative treatment did not significantly change the need for surgical treatment since two-thirds of patients need to undergo surgery at some point in the course of their disease.On the other hand,the outcome of the operation has improved through good preoperative care as well as the wide application of more conservative surgical techniques aimed at keeping as much of the bowel in situ as possible.This article discusses the indications for surgical management of UC patients from the gastroenterologist’s point of view,the results of the emerging new techniques such as transanal surgery and robotics,as well as alternative operations to the classic ileo-anal-pouch anastomosis.The author also discusses the basic principles of surgical management of patients with CD based on the results of the relevant literature.The self-evident is emphasized,that is,to achieve an excellent therapeutic result in patients with severe inflammatory bowel disease in today’s era;the close cooperation of gastroenterologists with surgeons,pathologists,imaging,and nutritionists is of paramount importance.

Small Modular Solutions to Fermat’s Last Theorem

The proof by Andrew Wiles of Fermat’s Last Theorem in 1995 resolved the existence question for non-trivial solutions in integers x,y,zto the equation xn+yn=znfor n>2. There are none. Surprisingly, there are infinitely many solutions if the problem is recast in terms of modular arithmetic. Over a hundred years ago Issai Schur was able to show that for any n there is always a sufficiently large prime p0such that for all primes p≥p0the congruence xn+yn≡zn(modp)has a non-trivial solution. Schur’s argument wasnon-constructive, and there is no systematic method available at present to construct specific examples for small primes. We offer a simple method for constructing all possible solutions to a large class of congruences of this type.

Distribution, Mobility, and Health Risks Assessment of Trace Metals in River Sediments from Intense Agricultural Activity Areas in West Africa

The economy of West African countries is mainly based on agriculture. However, the trace metal(loid)s contamination status in rivers is relatively unknown in the region. In this work, 45 surface sediments collected from the Bandama, Comoé, and Bia Rivers in south and south eastern Côte d’Ivoire (West Africa), were analyzed for total metal concentrations and chemical speciation. The results showed that the river sediments were considerably contaminated by Cd and moderately contaminated by As, Cu, Pb, and Zn. Significant spatial variations were observed among the stations but not between the rivers. Metals Cd and Cu were likely to cause more ecological risks. The speciation analysis unravelled that the metal(loid)s partitioned mainly in the residual fraction, with the potential mobile fraction varying from 14% to 28%. The study calls for establishment of strict policies relative to the application of fertilizers and agrochemicals and mining activities to protect the environment and human health risks.

茜素红S法标定氯化钡标准溶液不确定度评定

以茜素红S为指示剂,用基准试剂无水硫酸钠标定0.250 0 mol/L氯化钡。对标定过程中直接影响测定结果的不确定因素进行分析、量化,按照测量不确定度评定流程进行评定。通过标定氯化钡标准溶液浓度的过程评定,得出了测量不确定度的主要来源有基准试剂的纯度、试剂配制、样品称量、玻璃量器、滴定终点颜色判定;硫酸钠和氯化钡摩尔质量引入的不确定较小,可以忽略不计。

基于3S的农牧交错区耕地动态变化研究——以内蒙古奈曼旗为例

本文利用3S技术,通过对1975、1985、1995和2005年的内蒙古奈曼旗TM影像的解译,提取出近30年来该地区耕地动态变化的信息。从耕地数量、变化速率以及耕地空间格局动态变化等方面对耕地的动态变化进行了全面的分析,并对其驱动机制进行了探讨。研究表明:近30年来,奈曼旗耕地面积呈增加趋势,而变化速度呈下降趋势;耕地主要向林地和固定沙丘地转化;耕地连通性指数、破碎度指数的变化呈波动趋势;耕地斑块数量的变化趋势与破碎度指数相同;耕地的分形维数随着人为干扰程度的增加呈现出逐渐降低的趋势。耕地在整个景观中的影响作用逐渐加强。耕地动态变化的主要驱动因素是耕地需求增加与土地退化之间的矛盾。

基于T-S网络的建筑施工安全预警模型研究

建筑施工安全问题日益凸显,迫切需要进行建筑施工安全预警模型方面的研究。本文结合以往的建筑施工安全事故案例,从人、物、环境、管理四个方面,对建筑施工安全影响因素进行分析,构建建筑施工安全预警指标体系。本文将建筑施工安全预警状态分为5个等级,并采用专家打分法对各预警区间定量划分,并借鉴模糊神经网络预警模型在其他学科领域的应用,建立了基于T-S网络的建筑施工安全预警模型。然后经过大量样本的训练和检测,使网络具有良好的泛化性。本文选取沈阳市某3个在建项目进行预警,发现与传统预警模型得出的结果一致,进一步验证了T-S网络预警模型的准确性和可行性。最终,得出T-S网络预警模型在建筑施工安全预警中具有适用性的结论。

买手与S&OP双重模式下的服装库存协同管理研究

快时尚和电子商务运营模式的迅速发展,使企业面临更大的库存风险。买手模式可以帮助企业根据市场信息和供求关系锁定投放产品的品类、数量及价格等信息,缩短产品开发前导时间,增强企业竞争力。S&OP(sales & operations planning)销售与运营计划模式帮助企业优化供求关系,达到内部职能部门的计划协同。文章提出在买手和S&OP双重模式下分阶段对服装企业库存进行管控,将库存管理与企业财务目标挂钩,针对不同企业类型设定库存管理KPI指标,兼顾服装企业库存去化的速度与利润空间的平衡,达到各项库存管理指标协同匹配的结果。

6-(P-2P-S)并联机器人误差分析及参数优化

介绍了一种新型6-(P-2P-S)并联机器人,为提高其终端平台的定位精度,对该并联机器人进行误差分析。首先采用矩阵法建立了该并联机器人的误差模型,将奇异值分解理论应用于误差分析,得到并联机构输入误差与输出误差的关系;然后依据雅可比矩阵定义了误差方向敏感度和误差绝对敏感度评价指标,并绘制了两个评价指标在姿态空间的分布图;最后基于全域综合位置误差评价指标对结构参数进行了优化设计,为该并联机器人的设计和应用奠定了基础。

反相高效液相色谱中同系物组分的线性S－logk＇w相关分析

研究了反相高效液相色谱中不同冲洗剂体系中同系物组分的线性Ｓ－ｌｏｇｋ＇ｗ相关分析（ＬＳＬＣ）。ＬＳＬＣ分析可以用来表征反相高效液相色谱的柱系统，在ＬＳＬＣ方程Ｓ＝ｐ·ｌｏｇｋ＇ｗ＋ｑ中，ｑ／ｐ主要表征了柱相比的对数（ｌｏｇΦ），而且对给定冲洗剂系统是一个常数；由ＬＳＬＣ所获得的相比并不显著的随同系物的种类的变化而变化，它是随Ｇ＿１８键含量的增加而增加的。