Study on Quantitative Assessment for the Social Risk of Major Geological Disasters

Based on the analysis of social risk of geological disasters,the index system of social risk evaluation was established. To assess the social risk quantitatively,a quantitative evaluation model of the social risk was established based on AHP,and the social risk of geological disasters was graded. Finally,the evaluation model was applied in a case.

Children＇s Problem Behaviors During Free Time as an Incentive for the Increase in Social Risks and Health Risks

Since children, as a rule, have more free time than adults, it is adults＇ responsibility to provide children with a chance to spend the time of relaxation, play, and fun in a beneficial way. Unfortunately, children＇s spare time is nowadays very frequently organized for the sake of brushing up children＇s knowledge, skills, and competences, which is accomplished by means of escalating extra-curriculum activities. When expressed by teacher and parents, these ambition-related attitudes pave the way for the disappearance of children＇s personal interests and motivations to perform complicated tasks which are perceived as unwanted or obscure by the affected children themselves. This form of adults＇ behavior may lead to the feelings of frustration, stress, demotivation, or rebellion on behalf of their children. The said emotional states, especially in relation to the lack of spontaneous play, give rise to serious psychic dysfunctions, and the instability of children＇s psychic balance. It may also pave the way for various forms of destructive behavior that mostly characterize children of younger school age who are about to start schooling.

Biological Trajectory for Psychosocial Risk Factors in Psychiatric Disorders—A Concept Based Review

Current understanding of mental disorders is based upon “biopsychosocial model”. Research also suggests what biological changes take place in a particular disorder as well as nature of risk which arises from psychological, social and environmental conditions. However it remains unclear how these psychosocial and environmental risk factors interact with biological factors which lead to clinical syndromes. This paper examines interrelationship of psychosocial and environmental risk and biological changes observed in mental disorders and tries to identify the possibility of a pathway of the psychopathology of psychiatric disorders. The review aims to demonstrate that significant advances in the fields of psychosocial, cultural, anthropological and neurobiological research provide novel insights into the etiology of mental disorders. There are neurochemical, functional and structural neurobiological, neurocognitive, immunological findings and findings from gene-environment interaction that appears promising. However these findings are in an isolated manner. Comprehensive studies examining major biological changes together in relation to psychosocial risk factors are lacking. Every individual reacts differently to the same environmental risk while there tends to be similarities in individual outcome in response to such stressors. The findings though robust independently, remain very preliminary to suggest a sequential trajectory for developing a clear pathway for pathogenesis. It is currently unclear whether there is a differential psychopathological impact of psychosocial stressors in different cultures despite the extensive variability both between and within major social groups and societies. Further research investigating modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors in context of prevailing socio-economic conditions is urgently needed to plan effective interventions.

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Education from Social Disciplinary Theoretical Perspectives

Disaster is a social phenomenon. The occurrence and impacts of disasters including the education sector can be studied through a social problem lens. This paper draws meaning and understanding of DRR education using the sociological disciplinary framework in a detailed qualitative case study of three schools as they responded to the devastating Gorakha earthquake in 2015 and other disasters in Nepal. This paper considers the three sub-disciplines of sociology: the sociology of disaster, the sociology of education and the sociology of education governance in a development context. These sub-disciplines are nested together to analyse social, political and historical factors and their relationships which are helpful to identify risks and vulnerabilities in the education sector in Nepal. These are the major areas to explore the disaster context and needs of context-specific education acts (hereafter DRR education) to minimise the potential risks of disasters. The article concludes that the social disciplinary framework is significantly useful to analyse DRR education provisions and implications of education governance to mobilise school in disaster preparedness, response and recovery.

Are social embeddedness associated with food risk perception under media coverage?

Traceability system has received wide attention in solving food safety issues, via which food information could be tracked back to producer/farmers. Consumers need to obtain this information from producers or social networks, trust in the information,and consequently assess perceived risks, especially when food scandals are exposed to the media. In this study, we introduce the social embeddedness theory to understand how consumers’ social activities affect their risk perceptions on traceable food. Specifically, we investigate how risk perceptions are predicted by the interpersonal relationships, organizational level and social-level relationships. Results show that the interpersonal relationships were associated with lower levels of risk perceptions, while organizational and social relationships impacted consumer’s risk perceptions at middle and higher levels,respectively. Results also show that the "ripple effect" extended to effect of risk events with negative information, however,did not exist for the group exposed to positive information. Potential food safety implications have been proposed to identify for effective risk mitigation under media coverages.

Risk and Response of China Overseas Hydropower Projects--A Vision of Corporate Social Responsibility

Recent years, with the quickening of global economic integration and the rapid development of our country, more and more Chinese enterprises begin to implement internationalization strategy and actively develop overseas business. However, the internationalized process of Chinese enterprises is not progressing smoothly. The paper systematically analyzes the risks of China overseas hydropower projects from two aspects： international environment risks and internal risks of hydropower enterprises and points out that effectively fulfilling corporate social responsibility by using Guidance on Social Responsibility （ISO26000） could help Chinese hydropower enterprises to deal with overseas risks. In order to help Chinese hydropower enterprises to improve the CSR （Corporate Social Responsibility） implementation level, the paper integrates the characteristics of hydropower enterprises with the core subjects of ISO26000, examines the key problems on the CSR work of Chinese hydropower enterprises according to requirements of ISO26000 and puts forward effective advices.

Associations of social participation, demographic, socioeconomic and disease factors with nutritional risk in a group of older Hong Kong adults

Aims: To identify the impact of social participation, socio-demographic, socio-economic and disease factors on nutritional risk among older persons in Hong Kong. Background: Few published work has investigated the relative risks of social participation, demographic, socioeconomic and disease factors with malnutrition in community-living older people, this study is to investigate the associations of these risk factors on the nutritional status in better nutrition support for the old age group. Design: A crosssectional study. Methods: It was a secondary analysis of a database in a mobile community centre between January 2008 and December 2009. One thousand seven hundred and thirty one participants aged between 54 and 103 were collected. With 319 full Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) completed, the participants’ demographic, socio-economic data, diseases, and nutritional status were analyzed with relative risk and 95% confidence interval level to identify the factors that make them vulnerable to nutritional risk. Results: The prevalence of malnutrition in the community-dwelling old was 3.95% and 83.7% of the sample was at risk of malnutrition. Living on allowances, young old who was socially engaged and good relationship with family members were at less risk to malnutrition. Conclusions: Special attention should be taken to these groups as they are prone to develop malnutrition.

Risk assessment of transnational oil investment in Central Asia using a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method

Central Asia(including five countries:Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan,and Tajikistan)is rich in oil reserves and has become one of the most important target regions for global oil investment.The construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt has prompted Central Asia to look outwards for more collaborations in the oil industry.China's need for oil investment in Central Asia has also increased significantly.This research established a comprehensive index system for assessing the risks of transnational oil investment in Central Asia.The system incorporated political,regulatory,economic,social,and infrastructural indices.Based on the Delphi method and fuzzy comprehension evaluation method,we qualitatively and quantitatively assessed and analyzed the risks of transnational oil investment in Central Asia.The results indicate that the risk score for regulatory risk was highest with the value of 6.1670,indicating a high risk level in transnational oil investment,followed by economic,social,political,and infrastructural risk indices.Of the 18 secondary risk indices calculated,there were seven indices with the probability of high risk occurrence exceeded 30.0%and the descending order was as follows:establishment of mining rights;host country intervention in operations;taxing system;stability of regulations;war and turmoil;labor capital;and ethnic,cultural,and religious differences.These seven critical risks should be watched closely and avoided during transnational oil investment in Central Asia.This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the potential risks of investing oil in Central Asia.The findings demonstrate the causes of these risks and provide a scientific basis for reasonably avoiding oil investment risk and improving investment benefits for both host and investing countries.

社会风险融入公司治理下的董事合规义务——困境、重释与平衡

出于可持续发展的要求,社会风险的概念需融入公司治理,并凭借公司内部的源头预防优势来应对风险现实化后的公共损害。但传统的公司法及公司目的是以股东利益为导向,董事对社会因素的考量面临多元目标冲突和履职技术受限等困境。故要将董事的监督义务重释为“构建公司社会风险防范体系”的强制性“合规义务”,以公共利益为管理导向,在受托于公司的前提下,与忠实、注意义务并列成为信义义务的子集。董事应在履职中采纳ESG方法,通过设置董事(会)级别的领导机关和“预防、侦察、调查与补救”的类型化流程,缓解风险多元化和技术化的挑战。而专业判断规则与责任区分规则,有助于平衡义务强化下的后端责任,避免董事对合规的过度反应产生的经营懈怠。

Factor analysis and countermeasure simulation on the socio-ecological environment risks during the development of coalbed methane:based on the DEMATEL and FCM models

The socio-ecological environmental problem caused by the development of coalbed methane(CBM)is becoming more serious,so it is very significant for accelerating the development of CBM industrialization to identify the main influential factors of socioecological environmental risks and take effective risk prevention measures.Based on the triangular fuzzy number method,this paper firstly establishes a comprehensive correlation matrix.Then,the affected factors of socio-ecological environmental risks are analyzed by the DEMATEL method during the development of CBM.Then according to the aspects of centrality and causality,the key indicators are determined.Furthermore,the scenario simulation based on the FCM,the steady-state value and the comprehensive importance of key indicators,and the core indicators are selected.Finally,the scenario simulation of risk management countermeasure is done.The results show that:①The index weights are calculated by the triangular fuzzy numbers,and the correlation matrix in DEMATEL is obtained by the weight ratio,which reduces the shortcomings and the subjectivity of traditional DEMATEL method.②The correlation matrix in FCM is established based on the comprehensive correlation matrix in the above improved DEMATEL,which not only makes the FCM model more comprehensive and reduces the difficulty that the FCM correlation matrix is obtained considering the indirect influence relationship between indicators,but also makes up for the disadvantages that DEMATEL excludes during the selection of the core indexes,which are the considerations of the dynamic change of the importance of the indicators.③The rate of forestry and grass coverage,the ratio of investment in prevention and construction,the pollution index of soil Merlot,the reliability of machinery and equipment,the standard evaluation index of major pollution factors of underground water,and the ability of personal risk prevention are the key indicators,in which the rate of forestry and grass coverage,the ratio of investment in prevention and construction,and the reliability of machinery and equipment are the core indicators and are extremely important for the management of socio-ecological environmental risks during the development of coalbed methane.④The results of the scenario simulation of risk management countermeasure show that the core variables affect the socio-ecological environmental risks through such indicators as the degree of production mechanization,the degree of demolition and resettlement,and the ratio of economic loss by the influenced mechanism analysis;the ratio of investment in prevention and construction has the greatest impact on the socio-ecological environment risks in the early stage of CMB development,while the rate of forestry and grass coverage is the most important in the middle and late stages by the influenced result analysis.Therefore,this paper puts forward some corresponding stage suggestions on the prevention and control of socio-ecological environmental risks during the CMB development.In the early stage of CMB development,the ratio of investment in prevention and construction should be increased.In the middle stage,it is very important to reduce the damage of vegetation regions and to improve the reliability of machinery and equipment;in the late stage,the investment in prevention and construction should be increased steadily and the recovery of damaged vegetation areas should be focused on.

基于系统动力学的我国社会重大风险仿真研究

基于系统动力学模型,构建社会重大风险系统因果关系图和流图,运用综合指数法对社会重大风险进行预警分析,并对子系统引起的社会重大风险进行仿真预测以监测我国社会重大风险。结果表明:宏观经济、生态环境及社会治理三个子系统监测预警综合值变化较小,趋势比较平稳,社会重大风险监测预警综合指数整体上呈现出小幅上升的趋势。因此,为防范化解我国的社会重大风险,政府应通过提升常规风险与突发事件应急管理机制精确度,加强社会重大风险的制度化控制,打好防范化解社会重大风险的基础。

Delays to Large Construction Projects in Ghana： A Risk Overview

Delay to large scale projects, which is as a result of actions or inactions of some project stakeholders, is becoming a global phenomena and Ghana is no exception. The objective of the research is to identify, rate and rank the most significant risk factors that causes delay on projects and examine the social impact of these delays to recommend modalities to help mitigate these risk factors. The study adopted quantitative methods with the distribution of 144 questionnaires to built environment professionals receiving a response rate of 75.7%. The instrument listed 58 common factors under eight categories that contribute to the causes of delay for respondents to rate. Analysis of data non-parametric test revealed that client, contractor, material and finance category factors significantly resulted in the schedule delay of large infrastructural projects. The survey analysis revealed that micro-factors that result in delays to large construction projects are time constraint, cost overrun, payment problems, dispute and litigation. The research recommended the following modalities to minimize such delays： availability of resources, improved communication and coordination, proper scope definition and feasibilities, utilization of modern technology, appropriate application of technologically based systems and competent project management＇s structures.

Reasons for the Creation of New Social Networks by the Elderly after Relocation

It is important for the relocated elderly to create social networks within their new environment for their lives and their health. This research examined the reasons why the relocated elderly create social networks in the neighborhood. The research subject area is one snowfall town in Hokkaido, Japan. The subjects are 20 elderly people, who have been relocated to the town. The public health nurses individually conducted an interview and broke down the verbatim records into qualitative descriptions. The subjects ranged from 68 to 94 years old. Reasons why the elderly create social networks in their neighborhoods are to make their lives easier, to prepare for emergencies, to get rid of their loneliness, and to enjoy their lives. Community health providers should understand the need for neighboring social networks based on the elderly people’s condition, and support and create new networks in their community depending on their situations.

Gender, Social Origins and Accumulated Disadvantages Associated with Mid-Life Body Weight in Taiwan

Obesity is a problem with global health and economic consequences. This study assesses the impact of social origins and socio-economic disadvantages on mid-life body weight. Hypotheses of both critical early life period and social trajectory were tested using a sample of 845 adults, aged 45 to 69 years, from a nationally representative sample in 2009 Taiwan Social Change Survey. The study found evidence of a significant gender-specific heterogeneity of social origins on obesity risk. Men with accumulated disadvantage had increased BMI, but no significant accumulative trajectories were found among women. Obesity prevention must consider factors beyond behavioral change, and include a focus on social origins and gender identity.

预付式消费政府平台法律监管的治理路径

为应对预付式消费给传统监管体系提出的挑战,一些地方政府利用信息化、互联化的优势,探索建立统一的互联网监管平台。这些平台存在着备案参与度低、平台风险警示制度缺乏互联互通等困境,究其根源是由于政府管控型监管理念与风险预防逻辑不适应;监管权力配置模式过于僵化;制度规范滞后于监管需求;监管工具的创新性不足。为治理上述困境,亟需从政府管控监管理念转换为多元协同监管理念;构建“部门协同、社会共担”的监管权力配置格局;健全“风险预防、程序保障”为导向的监管规范体系;创新监管工具以提高风险预防的精准性等四个方面的改革路径,为治理政府主导型预付式消费互联网平台的监管困境提供思路。

人口流动对家庭风险金融资产配置的影响——基于CHFS数据的实证研究

改革开放以来,中国经历了大规模的人口迁移,形成了庞大的流动人口群体,对经济社会各个领域产生了深刻的影响,也在一定程度上改变了居民的家庭金融资产配置结构。利用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2017和2019年两期数据,实证分析了人口流动对家庭风险金融资产配置的影响。研究发现:人口流动对家庭风险金融资产配置具有显著的正向促进效应,在使用工具变量法处理内生性问题和一系列稳健性检验之后结论依然成立。进一步研究发现,人口流动对50岁以上的户主家庭和城市居民家庭的风险金融资产配置促进作用更大;同时,人口流动通过影响家庭的社会互动和风险偏好,进而提升家庭的风险金融资产配置水平。鉴于已有文献鲜有从人口流动视角研究家庭风险金融资产配置问题,研究结论丰富了相关文献,同时也为政府相关部门优化人口流动机制、拓宽居民投资渠道提供了理论依据。

大学生社交媒体信息安全风险感知影响因素

文章提出社交媒体信息安全风险感知影响因素关系假设,以大学生社交媒体用户群体为研究对象,通过问卷调研风险感知现状,在构建结构方程模型的基础上对问卷数据进行了模型验证和中介效应检验。研究发现:大学生社交媒体信息安全风险感知程度的城乡间差距明显,其面对信息安全风险主要采用系统式处理;媒体信任度、社会群体归属感、卷入认知会对系统式处理产生影响,知识和信息有效性会对启发式-系统式处理产生影响;系统式处理在知识、媒体信任度、社会群体归属感、卷入认知、信息有效性和风险感知之间起完全中介效应,负面情绪直接正向影响风险感知。

劳动者创业与多层次社会保险需求——基于中国家庭金融调查数据的实证研究

采用2013—2017年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,实证检验自主创业对多层次社会保险需求的影响。研究发现:个体进行自主创业后的多层次社会保险需求会显著提高,增加幅度平均为3.29个百分点。相比于受雇个体,年龄在45~59岁且收入处于中等水平的发展型创业个体具有更高的多层次社会保险需求。在保险类型上,自主创业个体对多层次养老保险的需求最高,而对多层次医疗保险的需求较低。自主创业个体还会提高其家人的多层次社会保险需求,配置顺序依次是青壮年、老年人和儿童。

社会风险全周期治理:兴起、基本框架及发展路径

全周期治理既是对社会风险传统治理的实践反思,也是新时期应对社会风险复杂形态的积极探索。作为应对风险“不确定性”的一种新型治理模式,全周期治理的兴起源于社会风险治理的理论发展和实践困境之间的张力需求,具有特定的概念内涵。社会风险全周期治理的治理框架,涵盖了以可持续安全为导向的治理目标、多元参与的主体结构、基于知识学习的治理策略和全阶段的治理过程。社会风险新旧治理模式迭代的过程中存在治理目标多重矛盾与冲突、治理结构“碎片化”、治理策略滞后性和治理过程的“断续性”等困境。为此,需要从目标考核体系、合作行动共同体、治理策略和全过程管理等维度优化路径,构建全流程动态治理模式,以实现社会风险的有效预防和化解。

中国在中东欧国家投资的风险及防范对策研究

中国与中东欧国家建立了跨区域合作机制。中国在中东欧国家的投资面临政治风险、社会风险和法律风险。政治风险包括中东欧国家的政府稳定性风险、外交风险和战争风险。社会风险包括中东欧国家对华负面舆论的风险、暴力性群体事件的风险和劳工风险。法律风险包括中东欧国家接受欧盟法律制约的风险、严格执行合同的风险和严格执行环保法的风险。我们需要加强风险防范。我国要建立境外投资和境外经贸合作园区的风险防范的工作体系;要针对政治风险、社会风险和法律风险分别采取不同的防范措施。