Ensemble prediction model of solar proton events associated with solar flares and coronal mass ejections

An ensemble prediction model of solar proton events （SPEs）, combining the information of solar flares and coronal mass ejections （CMEs）, is built. In this model, solar flares are parameterized by the peak flux, the duration and the longitude. In addition, CMEs are parameterized by the width, the speed and the measurement position angle. The importance of each parameter for the occurrence of SPEs is estimated by the information gain ratio. We find that the CME width and speed are more informative than the flare’s peak flux and duration. As the physical mechanism of SPEs is not very clear, a hidden naive Bayes approach, which is a probability-based calculation method from the field of machine learning, is used to build the prediction model from the observational data. As is known, SPEs originate from solar flares and/or shock waves associated with CMEs. Hence, we first build two base prediction models using the properties of solar flares and CMEs, respectively. Then the outputs of these models are combined to generate the ensemble prediction model of SPEs. The ensemble prediction model incorporating the complementary information of solar flares and CMEs achieves better performance than each base prediction model taken separately.

Latitudinal Distribution of Solar Flares and Their Association with Coronal Mass Ejections

Major solar flare events have been utilised to study the latitudinal frequency distribution of solar flares in northern and southern hemispheres for the period of 1986 to 2003. A statistical analysis has been performed to obtain the correlation between Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and Forbush decrease (Fds) of cosmic ray intensity. Almost the same flares distribution in both hemispheres is found in association with CMEs. In a further analysis, it is noted that a larger number of CME-associated solar flares located in the northern hemisphere are found to be more effective in producing Forbush decreases.

日地L5太阳探测工程概述

南京大学联合中国气象局、上海航天技术研究院等单位共同建议的日地L5太阳探测工程——“羲和二号”,将在国际上首次发射一颗人造探测器至日地系统第5个拉格朗日点,通过精测矢量磁场、揭示三维爆发和精准预警预报,解答“活动区磁场的产生演化及其与太阳爆发的物理联系”和“太阳爆发的传播规律及其与灾害性空间天气的关系”这2个太阳物理和空间天气领域亟待解决的重大科学和应用问题。本文重点阐述“羲和二号”的科学与应用目标,简要介绍其科学载荷和初步方案。联合日地连线方向上的太阳探测,“羲和二号”的实施将开启我国太阳立体探测时代,拓展人类对太阳爆发机制的理解,为空间天气预警预报带来革命性突破。

Geoeffectiveness of the coronal mass ejections associated with solar proton events

The intensity-time profiles of solar proton events（SPEs） are grouped into three types in the present study. The Type-I means that the intensity-time profile of an SPE has one peak, which occurs shortly after the associated solar flare and coronal mass ejection（CME）. The Type-II means that the SPE profile has two peaks： the first peak occurs shortly after the solar eruption, the second peak occurs at the time when the CME-driven shock reaches the Earth, and the intensity of the second peak is lower than the first one.If the intensity of the second peak is higher than the first one, or the SPE intensity increases continuously until the CME-driven shock reaches the Earth, this kind of intensity-time profile is defined as Type-III. It is found that most CMEs associated with Type-I SPEs have no geoeffectiveness and only a small part of CMEs associated with Type-I SPEs can produce minor（–50 n T ≤ Dst ≤–30 n T） or moderate geomagnetic storms（–100 n T≤ Dst ≤–50 n T）, but never an intense geomagnetic storm（–200 n T ≤ Dst 〈-100 n T）. However,most of the CMEs associated with Type-II and Type-III SPEs can produce intense or great geomagnetic storms（Dst ≤-200 n T）. The solar wind structures responsible for the geomagnetic storms associated with SPEs with different intensity-time profiles have also been investigated and discussed.

太阳高能粒子强度与日冕物质抛射及其Ⅱ型射电暴的关系

本文选取了第24太阳活动周2010年1月至2014年9月期间的快速、大角宽日冕物质抛射(CME)事件,结合不同约束条件下Richardson(2014)太阳高能粒子(SEP)强度经验模型输出结果,分析了CME属性、先行CME(pre-CME)、Ⅱ型射电暴等观测特征对SEP强度的影响,探讨了SEP事件的产生及其强度与这些特征的关系.主要结论如下:1)快速CME前13 h内是否存在pre-CME对模型预测效果和快速CME是否产生SEP事件有明显影响,但pre-CME的数量对模型输出结果没有明显改善.2)相比于无Ⅱ型射电暴伴随的快速CME而言,伴随Ⅱ型射电暴的CME爆发产生SEP事件的误报占比明显更低(42%),以此为约束条件,可更加突显大SEP事件(如峰值≥0.01 pfu/Me V)的模型预测值与观测值的关联;如果考虑射电增强,则SEP事件的误报占比可进一步下降至29.4%,模型预测效果显著提升.3)Ⅱ型射电暴的起始频率和结束频率对误报占比的影响不大,以此作为条件约束对模型预测效果提升不明显.4)如考虑Ⅱ型射电暴的细分类型作为模型约束条件,伴随多波段Ⅱ型射电暴的CME比单一波段事件具有更好的模型预测效果,如m-DH-kmⅡ型射电暴事件,具有较低的误报占比(35.4%),准确率较高.研究结果显示,除了CME的速度和角宽参数外,pre-CME、Ⅱ型射电暴及其增强、多波段类型等特征作为CME产生SEP事件的约束条件,SEP预测强度与观测强度具有较好的一致性,可以获得较优的模型预测效果.这也进一步表明了伴随有pre-CME、多波段Ⅱ型射电暴及其增强的快速大角宽CME更容易产生SEP事件,这些特征可作为SEP-rich类CME的辨别信号.

Recent progress of solar physics research in China

Owing to the largely improved facilities and working conditions, solar physics research in China has recently shown marked development. This paper reports on the recent progress of solar physics research in China's Mainland, mainly focusing on several hot issues, including instrumentations, magnetic field observations and research, solar flares, filaments and their eruptions, coronal mass ejections and related processes, as well as active regions and the corona, small-scale phenomena, solar activity and its predictions. A vision of the future is also described.

Possible Connections between X-Solar Flares and Worldwide Variation in Seismicity Enhancement

We developed a?statistical study analyzing global seismicity enhancement and its variation?overtwenty years.?X-flares sometimes occur in conjunction with Coronal Mass Ejections (CME),which make their connection with the Earth’s magnetosphere stronger.?The preliminary study divided the Earth into seven regions determined by longitude and latitude, and nine levels of depth valid for most locations?in the?Pacific area.?The results showed that X beams influenced seismicity in terrestrial localities, mainly high magnitude earthquakes occurring below the crust at 70 km.?These internal enhancements happen without the presence of any external forces such as studied in Solar Speed Winds.?Nevertheless, those variations are perceptible in the presence of intense X flares and CME and less observed in the periods during which flares were absent. Two cases of high magnitude earthquakes in recent?years are analyzed, and the extreme external conditions of those events fit?with this theory.

Waiting Time Distribution of Coronal Mass Ejections

Inspired by the finding that the large waiting time of solar flares presents a power-law distribution, we investigate the waiting time distribution (WTD) of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). SOHO/LASCO CME observations from 1996 to 2003 are used in this study. It is shown that the observed CMEs have a similar power-law behavior to the flares, with an almost identical power-law index. This strongly supports the viewpoint that solar flares and CMEs are different manifestations of the same physical process. We have also investigated separately the WTDs of fast-type and slow-type CMEs and found that their indices are identical, which imply that both types of CME may originate from the same physical mechanism.

Overview of the Solar Polar Orbit Telescope Project for Space Weather Mission

The Solar Polar ORbit Telescope(SPORT) project for space weather mission has been under intensive scientific and engineering background studies since it was incorporated into the Chinese Space Science Strategic Pioneer Project in 2011.SPORT is designed to carry a suite of remote-sensing and in-situ instruments to observe Coronal Mass Ejections(CMEs),energetic particles,solar high-latitude magnetism,and the fast solar wind from a polar orbit around the Sun.The first extended view of the polar regions of the Sun and the ecliptic enabled by SPORT will provide a unique opportunity to study CME propagation through the inner heliosphere,and the solar high-latitude magnetism giving rise to eruptions and the fast solar wind.Coordinated observations between SPORT and other spaceborne/ground-based facilities within the International Living With a Star(ILWS) framework can significantly enhance scientific output.SPORT is now competing for official selection and implementation during China's 13 th Five-Year Plan period of 2016-2020.

Interplanetary consequences and geoeffectiveness of CME associated with major solar flare from NOAA AR 12673

In this reported work,we study a major X-class flare(X9.3) that arose from NOAA Active Region(AR) 12673 on 2017 September 6,from 11:53 UT to 12:10 UT in multi-wavelength views.This event also produced a fast coronal mass ejection(CME).NOAA AR 12673 emerged at S09 W30 on 2017 September6 and grew rapidly to a large AR.On 2017 September 9,the maximum area of this AR was 1060 millionth of the solar hemisphere.The group of sunspots disappeared over the west limb of the Sun(S09 W83) on September 10.It was a fast emerging flux region.The group of sunspots showed magnetic configuration category alpha-beta-gamma.We identified their earliest signatures of eruption in AIA 94A images with initialization and successive rapid growth from low coronal heights of hot channeled structures.On the other hand,the CME associated with this flare event triggered the intense Dst at 1 AU(–142 nT).We have acquired observations and analyze the reported event from the Sun’s surface,corona(source AR),interplanetary space and in-situ measurement near Earth.In addition,here we analyze the complex processes of CMECME interaction that have contributed a significant role to make the reported event so geoeffective.

Sun-Earth connection event of super geomagnetic storm on 2001 March 31:the importance of solar wind density

An X1.7 flare at 10:15 UT and a halo CME with a projected speed of 942 km s-1 erupted from NOAA solar active region 9393 located at N20 W19,which were observed on 2001 March 29.When the CME reached the Earth,it triggered a super geomagnetic storm(hereafter super storm).We find that the CME always moved towards the Earth according to the intensity-time profiles of protons with different energies.The solar wind parameters responsible for the main phase of the super storm occurred on 2001 March 31 are analyzed while taking into account the delayed geomagnetic effect of solar wind at the L1 point and using the SYM-H index.According to the variation properties of SYM-H index during the main phase of the super storm,the main phase of the super storm is divided into two parts.A comparative study of solar wind parameters responsible for two parts shows the evidence that the solar wind density plays a significant role in transferring solar wind energy into the magnetosphere,besides the southward magnetic field and solar wind speed.

Research Advances of Solar Corona and Interplanetary Physics in China: 2012–2014

Solar transients and their related interplanetary counterparts have severe effects on the space environments of the Earth. Therefore, the research of solar corona and interplanetary physics has become the focus of study for both solar and space scientists. Considerable progress has been achieved in these aspects by the solar and space physics community of China during 2012–2014, which will be given in this report. The brief report summarizes the research advances of solar corona and interplanetary physics into the following parts: solar wind origin and turbulence, coronal waves and seismology, solar eruptions, solar energetic particle and galactic cosmic ray, magnetic reconnection,Magnetohydrodynamic(MHD) models and their applications, waves and structures in solar wind,propagation of ICMEs/shocks and their arrival time predictions. These research achievements have been achieved by Chinese solar and space scientists independently or via international collaborations.

Research Progress of Solar Corona and Interplanetary Physics in China:2010—2012

The scientific objective of solar corona and interplanetary research is the understanding of the various phenomena related to solar activities and their effects on the space environments of the Earth.Great progress has been made in the study of solar corona and interplanetary physics by the Chinese space physics community during the past years.This paper will give a brief report about the latest progress of the corona and interplanetary research in China during the years of 2010-2012.The paper can be divided into the following parts:solar corona and solar wind.CMEICME, magnetic reconnection,energetic particles,space plasma,space weather numerical modeling by 3D SIP-CESE MHD model,space weather prediction methods,and proposed missions.They constitute the abundant content of study for the complicated phenomena that originate from the solar corona,propagate in interplanetary space,and produce geomagnetic disturbances.All these progresses are acquired by the Chinese space physicists,either independently or through international collaborations.

Solar Activity during the Rising Phase of Solar Cycle 24

Solar activity refers to any natural phenomenon occurring on the sun such as sunspots, solar flare and coronal mass ejection etc. Such phenomena have their roots deep inside the sun, where the dynamo mechanism operates and fluid motions occur in a turbulent way. It is mainly driven by the variability of the sun’s magnetic field. The present paper studies the relation between various solar features during January 2009 to December 2011. A good correlation between various parameters indicates similar origin.

磁云传播的动力学演化过程研究进展

磁云因其独特的磁场结构经常是重大灾害性空间天气的驱动源.近来从磁云的边界层结构、环向通量、大尺度结构等方面关于磁云传播的动力学演化过程的研究取得了一些进展.在磁云边界存在一个由于磁场重联而形成的边界层结构.在磁云传播过程中,这种发生在边界处的磁场重联可能会把磁云的磁场剥蚀掉,进而引起其磁通量绳结构环向通量的减少以及不对称.在磁云内部,经常会观测到多个子通量绳结构.这些特性各异的子通量绳可以通过磁场重联而合并,进而引起磁云磁结构的改变.关于磁云大尺度磁场拓扑位形的演化机制,除了较早提出的交换重联外,目前的研究表明在行星际空间中,磁云边界处的重联过程也可以将磁云闭合或半开放的磁场线打开或断开.尽管在相关研究中已经取得了较大进展,但关于磁云传播的动力学演化过程还有许多问题尚不清楚.在行星际小尺度磁通量绳边界也发现了边界层结构,那么磁云是否会因剥蚀而成为小尺度通量绳?磁云内子通量绳结构在相互作用中会不会引起某些不稳定性而导致整个通量绳系统的崩溃?这些问题的解决还有待于进一步的理论、观测和数值模拟研究.

Alfvénic Fluctuations in an Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection Observed Near 1 AU

As for the present situation of coronal mass ejection （CME） triggering models, the distributions of Alfv@n waves in flux ropes are different from model to model, and thus examining those distributions in interplanetary coronal mass ejection （ICME） is an effective way to connect ICME observations with these theoretical models of CME triggering. However, previous observations of Alfv@nic fluctuations in ICMEs were rare with locations ranging from 0.3 AU to 0.68 AU only, which is usually explained as rapid dissipation of those remnant waves. Here we present an observation of Alfv@n waves in a magnetic cloud （MC） near 1 AU, in situ detected by WIND in February 17,-~20, 2011. The MC was generated by a CME accompanied with the first X-class flare in the 24th solar cycle. The slope of the power spectral densities of magnetic fluctuation in the MC, are similar to those modes in ambient solar wind, but more anisotropic. The results will also be helpful for studies of CME theories and ICME thermodynamics.

Mass transfer enhancement for LiBr solution using ultrasonic wave

The methods were studied to improve the cooling performance of the absorption refrigeration system(ARS) driven by low-grade solar energy with ultrasonic wave, while the mechanism of ultrasonic wave strengthening boiling mass transfer in LiB r solution was also analyzed with experiment. The experimental results indicate that, under the driving heat source of 60–100 oC and the ultrasonic power of 20–60 W, the mass flux of cryogen water in Li Br solution is higher after the application of ultrasonic wave than auxiliary heating with electric rod of the same power, so the ultrasonic application effectively enhances the heat utilization efficiency. The distance H from ultrasonic transducer to vapor/liquid interface significantly affects mass transfer enhancement, so an optimal Hopt corresponding to certain ultrasonic power is beneficial to reaching the best strengthening effect for ultrasonic mass transfer. When the ultrasonic power increases, the mass transfer obviously speeds up in the cryogen water; however, as the power increases to a certain extent, the flux reaches a plateau without obvious increment. Moreover, the ultrasound-enhanced mass transfer technology can reduce the minimum temperature of driving heat source required by ARS and promote the application of solar energy during absorption refrigeration.

Mechanics of the Gyroscopic Precession and Calculation of the Galactic Mass

A spinning gyroscope precesses about the vertical due to a torque acting upon the wheel. The torque is generated by the shift of moment of force by gravity and it points to the vertical instead of the tangential direction of precession. This intuition offers an alternative and straightforward view of precession dynamics in comparison with the literature. It also presumes a dynamic balance of momentum between circular motions of the wheel spin and precession. Accordingly, the gyroscopic dynamics is then applied to the study of galactic motion of the solar system in space and the Galactic mass is calculated with the inclusion of gyroscopic effect of the solar planets. Results indicate that the gyroscopic effect of Mercury orbiting around the Sun can increase the calculated Galactic mass by 23% in comparison with the result obtained by the classic approach.