An analysis of the monetary synchronization of the Union of South American Nations （UNASUR） for the decade 2004 through 2013 has been conducted using the optimum currency area （OCA） theories in order to evaluate t...An analysis of the monetary synchronization of the Union of South American Nations （UNASUR） for the decade 2004 through 2013 has been conducted using the optimum currency area （OCA） theories in order to evaluate the economic integration. By applying Bayoumi and Eichengreen＇s equation, it was found that with a decent adjustment, a high percentage of countries show a tendency to harmonize their currencies in function of the four independent variables： output disturbances, the dissimilarity in exports composition, the trade linkages, and the size of the economies. To extend the model, mobility of labor and level of the integration in good＇s market were added by modifying Behrens＇ proposal, founding that the six variables are indeed related to the exchange rate harmonization at different significant levels, with a considerable moderate fitting. Additionally an analysis of variance （ANOVA） has been considered in order to study the following economic indicators： gross domestic product （GDP）, population, GDP per capita, exports to group vs. total exports, unemployment, and inflation rates so as to visualize the economic asymmetries of the Union, for the same period. Differences were inferred for all of them but not for their annual speed of change. The least significant differences （LSD） provide further results and Duncan＇s multiple range tests lead to defining groups of countries with similar characteristics.展开更多
文摘An analysis of the monetary synchronization of the Union of South American Nations （UNASUR） for the decade 2004 through 2013 has been conducted using the optimum currency area （OCA） theories in order to evaluate the economic integration. By applying Bayoumi and Eichengreen＇s equation, it was found that with a decent adjustment, a high percentage of countries show a tendency to harmonize their currencies in function of the four independent variables： output disturbances, the dissimilarity in exports composition, the trade linkages, and the size of the economies. To extend the model, mobility of labor and level of the integration in good＇s market were added by modifying Behrens＇ proposal, founding that the six variables are indeed related to the exchange rate harmonization at different significant levels, with a considerable moderate fitting. Additionally an analysis of variance （ANOVA） has been considered in order to study the following economic indicators： gross domestic product （GDP）, population, GDP per capita, exports to group vs. total exports, unemployment, and inflation rates so as to visualize the economic asymmetries of the Union, for the same period. Differences were inferred for all of them but not for their annual speed of change. The least significant differences （LSD） provide further results and Duncan＇s multiple range tests lead to defining groups of countries with similar characteristics.
