Geoacoustic Inversion for Bottom Parameters in the Deep-Water Area of the South China Sea

Bottom acoustic parameters play an important role in sound field prediction. Acoustic parameters in deep water are not well understood. Bottom acoustic parameters are sensitive to the transmission-loss （TL） data in the shadow zone of deep water. We propose a multiple-step fill inversion method to invert sound speed, density and attenuation in deep water. Based on a uniform liquid hMf-space bottom model, sound speed of the bottom is inverted by using the long range TL at low frequency obtained in an acoustic propagation experiment conducted in the South China Sea （SCS） in summer 2014. Meanwhile, bottom density is estimated combining with the Hamilton sediment empirical relationship. Attenuation coefficients at different frequencies are then estimated from the TL data in the shadow zones by using the known sound speed and density as a constraint condition. The nonlinear relationship between attenuation coefficient and frequency is given in the end. Tile inverted bottom parameters can be used to forecast the transmission loss in the deep water area of SCS very we//.

Geochemical characteristics of Oligocene-Miocene sediments from the deepwater area of the northern South China Sea and their provenance implications

Geochemical and detrital zircon U-Pb dating data for drilled sediments from the Baiyun deepwater area of the northern South China Sea demonstrate a change of sedimentary sources from the Oligocene to the Miocene.Zircon ages of the pre-rift Eocene sequences are dominated by Yanshanian ages with various peak values（110–115 Ma for U1435 and L21; 150 Ma for H1）, indicating local sediment supply from the pre-existing Mesozoic magmatic belt. For the Oligocene sediments in the northern part of the basin, the rare earth elements show different distribution characteristics, indicating sediment supply from the paleo-Zhujiang River（Pearl River）, as also confirmed by the multimodal zircon age spectra of the Lower Oligocene strata in Well X28. By contrast, a positive Eu anomaly characterizes sediments from the western and southern parts of the basin, indicating potential provenances from intermediate to basic volcanic rock materials. The Baiyun Movement at the end of the Oligocene contributed to a large-scale subsidence in the deepwater area and also a northward retreat of continental shelf break, leading to deepening depositional environment in the basin. As a result, all the detrital zircon ages of the Upper Oligocene strata from Wells X28, L13, and L21 share a similar distribution, implying the possible control of a common source like the Zhujiang River. During the Miocene, whereas sediments in the northern area were mainly sourced from the Zhujiang River Delta, and those in the southern deepwater area continued to be affected by basic volcanic activities, the Dongsha Uplift could have contributed as the main source to the eastern area.

Undrained shear strength evaluation for hydrate-bearing sediment overlying strata in the Shenhu area, northern South China Sea

The undrained shear strength of shallow strata is a critical parameter for safety design in deep-water operations.In situ piezocone penetration tests(CPTU) and laboratory experiments are performed at Site W18-19 in the Shenhu area, northern South China Sea, where China's first marine hydrate exploitation operation is due to be located. The validation of the undrained shear strength prediction model based on CPTU parameters. Different laboratory tests, including pocket penetrometer, torvane, miniature vane and unconsolidated undrained triaxial tests, are employed to solve empirical cone coefficients by statistical and mathematical methods. Finally, an optimized model is proposed to describe the longitudinal distribution of undrained shear strength in calcareous clay strata in the Shenhu area. Research results reveal that average empirical cone coefficients based on total cone resistance, effective resistance, and excess-pore pressure are 13.8, 4.2 and 14.4, respectively. The undrained shear strength prediction model shows a good fit with the laboratory results only within specific intervals based on their compaction degree and gas-bearing conditions. The optimized prediction model in piecewise function format can be used to describe the longitudinal distribution of the undrained shear strength for calcareous clay within all depth intervals from the mud-line to the upper boundary of hydrate-bearing sediments(HBS). The optimized prediction result indicates that the effective cone resistance model is suitable for very soft to firm calcareous clays,the excess-pore pressure model can depict the undrained shear strength for firm to very stiff but gas-free clays,while the total cone resistance model is advantageous for evaluating the undrained shear strength for very stiff and gassy clays. The optimized model in piecewise function format can considerably improve the adaptability of empirical models for calcareous clay in the Shenhu area. These results are significant for safety evaluations of proposed hydrate exploitation projects.

Dynamics of picoplankton in the Nansha Islands area of the South China Sea

Dynamics of major picoplankton groups, Synechococcus (Syn), Prochlorococcus (Pro), picoeukaryotes (Euk) and heterotrophic bacteria (Bact) was investigated by flow cytometry for the first time in the Nansha Islands area in the South China Sea. Averaged over the whole investigation area, depth-weighted integrated cell abundance (DWA) of Syn, Pro, Euk and Bact was 1.6 (0.4-5.7)×103, 5.4 (0.1-7.3)×104, 0.7 (0.2-2.2)×103, and 2.3 (1.4-3.2)×105 cells/mL respectively. Picoautotrophic cell abundance was low in the northwest part of the Nansha Islands where surface water temperature was low and the upper mixed layer was shallow. Concurrently, a surface maximum vertical distribution pattern was observed in this area. While in the southeast and east zones where temperatures were relatively higher and nitraclines were deeper, picoplankton is abundant and a subsurface maximum around 50-75 m is observed. Coupling of horizontal and vertical distribution patterns of picoplankton abundance and hydrological status was found, suggesting a strong influence of currents and water column structure on picoplankton distribution in the investigation area. Contrary to that in the shelf water in the East China Sea, the relationship between Pro and Bact in the Nansha Islands area in the South China Sea was not significantly negative but weakly positive. Moreover, a similar distribution pattern of Syn and Pro was observed. Possible reasons for these differences in the two marine regimes were discussed.

Study of radioactive status in the Zhujiang Estuary and adjacent sea area in South China Sea (SCS)

Through the investigation on radioactive activities of water, sediment and some marine organismsin the Zhujiang Estuary, adjacent sea area and the distributary mouths of the Zhujiang River, activities of total α. radioactivity, total β radioactivity, artificial radioactive 90Srand 157Cs, and factors inflencing the distribution and the content of U in seawater are studied.The mainly radioactive pollution substances and their sources in the sea area are studied by γ spectra obtained from sediment in the sea area. The results show that the main radioactivity substances are natural radioactivity U,Th series and 40K. which were produced by the modern industry and transported into the sea through the main current of the Zhujiang River.

Simulation of the Accumulation Process of Biogenic Gas Hydrates in the Shenhu Area of Northern South China Sea

Previous work has largely discussed the relations between sediment structures and accumulation of gas hydrates in the Shenhu area of South China Sea, but has not documented why the gas hydrates occurred at the seafloor topographic highs. Many gas hydrate exploration examples abroad also indicate that the saturation of gas hydrates was higher at seafloor topographic highs. This work aims to understand why gas hydrates accumulated at topographic highs and why their saturation is higher.

The Relationship between Tectonic Subsidence and BSR of Upper Neogene in the Deep-Water Area of the Northern Continental Slope, South China Sea

BSR （Bottom Simulating Reflector） occurs widely in the strata since the late Miocene in the deep-water area of the northern continental slope of South China Sea （SCS）. It is an important seismic reference mark which identifies the gas hydrate and its distribution influenced by the tectonic movements. Single-point basin modeling was conducted using 473 points in the study area. To discuss the relationships between the tectonic subsidence and BSR, the volume and rate of tectonic subsidence in each geological time have been simulated. The results show that there are three tectonic accelerate subsidence processes in the study area since the late Miocene, especially since 1.8Ma the tectonic subsidence accelerates more apparently. Since the Late Miocene to Pleistocene, the rate of tectonic subsidence in deep-water underwent a transformation from weak to strong. The ratio of tectonic subsidence to the total subsidence was relatively high （65-70%）. Through the superposition of the BSR developed areas and the contours of tectonic subsidence in this area, it was discovered that more than 80% of BSR tend to be distributed at the slope break or depression-uplift structural transfer zone and the average tectonic subsidence rate ranges from 70 m/Ma to 125 m/Ma.

Types,Characteristics and Significances of Migrating Pathways of Gas-bearing Fluids in the Shenhu Area,Northern Continental Slope of the South China Sea

The first marine gas hydrate expedition in China has been conducted by Guangzhou Marine Geological Survey in the Shenhu Area, northern continental slope of the South China Sea. Previous study has analyzed the P-T conditions, geophysical anomalies and saturation calculations of these gas hydrates, but has not documented in detail the migration of gas-bearing fluids in the study area. Based on the interpretations of 2D/3D seismic data, this work identified two types of migration pathways for gas-bearing fluids in the Shenhu area, i.e., vertical and lateral pathways. The vertical pathways（largescale faults, gas chimneys and mud diapirs） presented as steep seismic reflection anomalies, which could be traced downward to the Eocene source rocks and may penetrate into the Late Miocene strata. The deeper gases/fluids might be allowed migrating into the shallower strata through these vertical conduits. However, the distributions showed distinct differences between these pathways. Large-scale faults developed only in the north and northeast of the Shenhu area, while in the drilling area gas chimneys were the sole vertical migration pathways. Since the Pliocene, normal faults, detachment faults and favorable sediments have constituted the lateral pathways in the Shenhu gas hydrate drilling area. Although these lateral pathways were connected with gas chimneys, they exerted different effects on hydrate formation and accumulation. Gas-bearing fluids migrated upward along gas chimneys might further migrate laterally because of the normal faults, thereby enlarging the range of the chimneys. Linking gas chimneys with the seafloor, the detachment faults might act as conduits for escaping gases/fluids. Re-deposited sediments developed at the early stage of the Quaternary were located within the gas hydrate stability zone, so hydrates would be enriched in these favorable sediments. Compared with the migration pathways（large-scale faults and mud diapirs） in the LW3-1 deep-sea oil/gas field, the migration efficiency of the vertical pathways（composed of gas chimneys） in the gas hydrate drilling area might be relatively low. Description and qualitative discrimination of migration pathways in the Shenhu gas hydrate drilling area are helpful to further understand the relationship between good-quality deep source rocks and shallow, mainly biogenicallyproduced, hydrates. As the main source rocks of the Baiyun sag, lacustrine mudstones in the Wenchang and Enping Formations may provide thermogenic methane. Gas chimneys with relatively low migration efficiency created the vertical pathways. Caused by the Dongsha tectonic movement, the release of overpressured fluids might reduce the vertical migration rates of the thermogenic methane. The thick bathyal/abyssal fine-grained sediments since the Late Miocene provided migration media with low permeability. These preconditions may cause carbon isotopic fractionation ofthermogenic methane during long-distance vertical migrations. Therefore, although geochemical analyses indicate that the methane forming gas hydrate in the Shenhu area was mainly produced biogenically, or was mixed methane primarily of microbial origin, thermogenic methane still contribute significantly.

Distribution of Organic Matter,Iron,Mangenese in Surface Sediments in the Nansha Islands Sea Area,South China Sea

Concentrations of organic matter, iron and manganese in the deep sea surface sediments in the Nansha Islands sea area, South China Sea are measured. Horizontal and vertical distributions of iron and manganese are discussed. The vertical distribution of iron and manganese in the sediments results from reduction, diffusion, and redeposition of manganese (or iron) oxide and hydroxide in the sediment. There are the maxima of iron and manganese in solid phase in the top of the sediment, which is caused by the penetration of O2 and the upward flux of Mn2+ ( or Fe2+ ). Manganese bacteria play a very important role in the cycle of solid-phase iron and manganese in the ocean environment. Manganese bacteria oxidize Mn2+ ( or Fe2+ ) in dissolved state to Mn4+ ( or Fe3+ ) in oxidized state under the aerobic condition, whereas they reduce iron and manganese in anaerobic conditions.

A New Discovery of Deep-Water Benthic Organisms from the Southwestern Dongsha Area,South China Sea

Dongsha waters are poorly studied for gas hydrates. Previous multi-channel seismic reflection and Chirp sub- bottom profiles show that numerous submarine mounds stand up to 100 m high above the seafloor over the continental slope of the SW Dongsha Island in northern margin of the South China Sea （SCS）. These mounds are characterized by hardened seabed, seafloor gas venting and folded structures, which implies the existence of active mud volcanoes. This work aims to confirm this speculation by seafloor sample dredging and to explore the potential of gas hydrates.

Variation of Air-Sea Heat Fluxes over the Western Pacific Warm Pool Area and Its Relationship with the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

Based on oceanic and atmospheric parameters retrieved by satellite remote sensing using a neural network method, air-sea heat fluxes over the western Pacific warm pool area were calculated with the advanced the advanced Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment 3.0 (COARE3.0) bulk algorithm method. Then, the average annual and interannual characteristics of these fluxes were analyzed. The rela- tionship between the fluxes and the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon onset is highlighted. The results indicate that these fluxes have clear temporal and spatial characteristics. The sensible heat flux is at its maximum in the Kuroshio area, while the latent heat flux is at its maximum in the North Equatorial Current and Kuroshio area. The distribution of average annual air-sea heat fluxes shows that both sensible and latent heat fluxes are maximized in winter and minimized in summer. The air-sea heat fluxes have obvious interannual variations. Correlation analysis indicates a close lag-correlation between air-sea heat fluxes in the western Pacific warm pool area and at the SCS summer monsoon onset. The lagcorrelation can therefore predict the SCS summer monsoon onset, providing a reference for the study of precipitation related to the monsoon.

Velocity model and time-depth conversion for the northwestern South China Sea deepwater areas

There are rich natural gas resources in the northwestern South China Sea deepwater areas, with poor degree of exploration. Because of the unique tectonic, sedimentary background of the region, velocity model building and time-depth conversion have been an important and difficult problem for a long time. Recent researches in this direction have revealed three major problems for deepwater areas, i.e., the way to determine error correction for drilling velocity, the optimization of velocity modeling, and the understanding and analysis of velocity variations in the slope areas. The present contribution proposes technical solutions to the problems：（1） velocity correction version can be established by analyzing the geology, reservoir, water depths and velocity spectrum characteristics;（2） a unified method can be adopted to analyze the velocity variation patterns in drilled pale structural positions;and （3） across-layer velocity is analyzed to establish the velocity model individually for each of the layers. Such a solution is applicable, as shown in an example from the northwestern South China Sea deepwater areas, in which an improved prediction precision is obtained.

Large Gas Accumulation Area discovered in South China Sea

About 150000 km^(2) of area is available for exploration in the continental shelf of northern South China Sea.As a potential area,Yingqiong Basin(Yinggehai and Qiongdongnan)has effective exploration area of 90000 km^(2).

Petroleum geology controlled by extensive detachment thinning of continental margin crust: A case study of Baiyun sag in the deep-water area of northern South China Sea

The relationships between crustal stretching and thinning,basin structure and petroleum geology in Baiyun deep-water area were analyzed using large area 3D seismic,gravity,magnetic,ocean bottom seismic(OBS),deep-water exploration wells and integrated ocean drilling program(IODP).During the early syn-rifting period,deep-water area was a half-graben controlled by high angle faults influenced by the brittle extension of upper crust.In the mid syn-rifting period,this area was a broad-deep fault depression controlled by detachment faults undergone brittle-ductile deformation and differentiated extension in the crust.In the late syn-rifting period,this area experienced fault-sag transition due to saucer-shaped rheology change dominated by crustal ductile deformation.A broad-deep fault depression controlled by the large detachment faults penetrating through the crust is an important feature of deep-water basin.The study suggests that the broad-deep Baiyun sag provides great accommodation space for the development of massive deltaic-lacustrine deposition system and hydrocarbon source rocks.The differentiated lithospheric thinning also resulted in the different thermal subsidence during post-rifting period,and then controlled the development of continental shelf break and deep-water reservoir sedimentary environment.The high heat flow background caused by the strong thinning of lithosphere and the rise of mantle source resulted in particularities in the reservoir diagenesis,hydrocarbon generation process and accumulation of deep-water area in northern South China Sea.

Rates and fluxes of centennial-scale carbon storage in the fine-grained sediments from the central South Yellow Sea and Min-Zhe belt, East China Sea

The global carbon cycle has played a key role in mitigating global warming and climate change.Long-term natural and anthropogenic processes influence the composition,sources,burial rates,and fluxes of carbon in sediments on the continental shelf of China.In this study,the rates,fluxes,and amounts of carbon storage at the centennial scale were estimated and demonstrated using the case study of three fine-grained sediment cores from the central South Yellow Sea area(SYSA) and Min-Zhe belt(MZB),East China Sea.Based on the high-resolution temporal sequences of total carbon(TC)and total organic carbon(TOC)contents,we reconstructed the annual variations of historical marine carbon storage,and explored the influence of terrestrial and marine sources on carbon burial at the centennial scale.The estimated TC storage over 100 years was 1.18×10~8 t in the SYSA and 1.45×10~9 t in the MZB.The corrected TOC storage fluxes at the centennial scale ranged from 17 to 28 t/(km^2·a)in the SYSA and from 56 to 148 t/(km^2·a)in the MZB.The decrease of terrestrial materials and the increase of marine primary production suggest that the TOC buried in the sediments in the SYSA and MZB was mainly derived from the marine autogenetic source.In the MZB,two depletion events occurred in TC and TOC storage from 1985 to 1987 and 2003 to 2006,which were coeval with the water impoundment in the Gezhouba and Three Gorges dams,respectively.The high-resolution records of the carbon storage rates and fluxes in the SYSA and MZB reflect the synchronous responses to human activities and provide an important reference for assessing the carbon sequestration capacity of the marginal seas of China.

南海北部神狐海域细粒储层矿物组分对天然气水合物储集赋存的影响

为了探明矿物类型对于天然气水合物成藏的影响,笔者等利用南海北部神狐海域W07站位样品及其水合物饱和度数据,进行XRD全岩和黏土矿物测试分析、比表面积分析以及束缚水能力综合分析。结果表明,海床下110~127 m(即110~127 mbsf,meters below sea floor,海床以下深度)为非水合物储层段,海床下127~156 m为水合物储层段。通过XRD分析可知,高石英及长石含量,低伊蒙混层含量的层段,比表面积与束缚水能力较低,说明其具有相对较好的孔渗条件,为水合物的运移与储集提供了良好的空间条件,因此形成水合物储层段;而在高伊蒙混层的层段中,比表面积较大,束缚水能力较强,其对甲烷气体及流体的吸附和束缚能力较强,对水合物成藏起到潜在的封隔作用,成为非储层段,储层与非储层段纵向叠置序列有利于优质水合物储层的形成。本次研究总结了矿物组分与优质水合物储层之间的关系,并揭示两者存在的潜在成因联系,以期丰富水合物富集成藏的基础理论,对未来南海北部天然气水合物的商业化开发提供支持。

南海北部陆缘盆地深水区油气勘探新认识及攻关方向

南海北部陆缘盆地深水区已成为我国海洋油气勘探增储上产的重要领域,但由于构造演化史复杂,该区不同凹陷的沉积—构造特征、烃源岩生烃—储层成岩演化和成藏模式均存在明显差异。为准确认识该区油气勘探潜力和方向,基于前人研究成果和勘探实践,在综合分析烃源岩、储层、差异成藏等地质条件的基础上,剖析了南海北部陆缘盆地深水区成藏特征、油气勘探作业面临的挑战,并指出了下一步油气攻关研究方向。研究结果表明:①受地壳拆离作用及强烈薄化影响,该区地层沉积特征特殊,岩石地球物理性质多样;②软流圈差异抬升形成深水区独特的高热流背景,促使区域性湖相、煤型及叠合型等3类烃源灶快速、高强度生烃,生烃门限变浅;③深水盆地群的演化和成盆规模差异大,构造演化控制了盆地几何形态和储集体时空展布,深水区独特的板块构造位置、复杂的构造演化史、温压变化剧烈的地质特征等控制了油气成藏模式。结论认为:①该区油气勘探面临地震资料解析度低、规模有效储层预测困难、勘探成本高等技术与经济的双重挑战;②需要创新形成高地温背景下优质储层差异化分布规律的研究思路;③亟需提升勘探设备能力建设,攻关高效地震采集、“重磁电震”地球物理一体化采集处理、双井架钻探作业、多井段“一趟钻”等勘探关键技术,为我国海洋深水油气勘探开发的高质量发展做好理论和技术支撑。

中国南海神狐海域水合物储层井壁稳定可靠度分析

天然气水合物具有巨大的潜在经济和环境价值,其开发利用对国家能源安全和实现国家碳达峰碳中和的“双碳目标”具有战略意义。我国天然气水合物资源主要分布于南海海域,海洋环境的复杂性和隐蔽性使工程测量数据具有较大不确定性,影响钻井安全。目前未见有水合物储层井壁稳定可靠度研究。为定量评估在我国南海神狐海域水合物储层钻井风险,基于水合物储层钻井井壁稳定解析理论和南海神狐海域具体地质条件,结合可靠度分析方法中的改进一次二阶矩法和响应面法,研究南海神狐海域水合物储层钻井井壁失稳概率分布特征,分析该海域井壁失稳概率及安全钻井液压力窗口对主要参数均值和不确定性的敏感性,结果表明:(1)若测量数据足够精确,在我国南海神狐海域水合物储层进行钻井活动的安全性较高,安全钻井液压力窗口也较大。测量数据的不确定性增大将使井壁失稳概率显著升高,缩窄安全钻井液压力窗口。(2)较低的钻井液温度对降低井壁失稳概率略有帮助,且能明显地扩大安全钻井液压力窗口。(3)5个主要参数的均值和不确定性对井壁失稳概率的影响次序相同,均为初始地应力>初始内摩擦角>弹性模量比>初始黏聚力>初始弹性模量。实际工程中对初始地应力数据精确测量,能够显著提高水合物储层钻井井壁稳定性。

铁磁性颗粒辅助微波加热分解南海神狐海域天然气水合物实验研究

南海北部陆坡神狐海域是中国天然气水合物首次试采区,90%以上的水合物储存在泥质粉砂地层中。为实现天然气水合物的高效开发,必须提高泥质粉砂中天然气水合物的平均产气速率和能量效率比。笔者以泥质粉砂作为水合物合成基底,对合成的甲烷水合物开展了微波加热分解实验,研究了加入不同种类铁磁性颗粒对甲烷水合物分解的影响规律。试验结果表明,在平均产气速率和能量效率比方面,加入铁钴合金粉末的实验组表现最佳,相较空白组提高22.66%。加入纳米钡铁氧体颗粒对反应前期分解效率具有显著促进作用,纳米颗粒的小粒径和大比表面积有助于其均匀分布,优化了润湿性和表面张力,降低了“贾敏效应”。经Avrami模型分析表明,铁磁性颗粒对微波分解水合物具有良好的促进作用,其中纳米钡铁氧体效果最显著。

泛南海地区极端降水的历史分布和未来演变特征

泛南海地区是全球海—陆—气相互作用最敏感的区域之一,该区域极端降水释放的潜热加热可以调节局地的温度和湿度廓线对大气环流进行调整,进而影响周边地区甚至全球的天气气候。因此,泛南海地区极端降水的时空变化特征及变异机理一直是国内外学者关注的焦点。本文利用观测数据(1951~2014年)和国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)两种共享社会经济路径(SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5)的统计降尺度数据(2015~2100年),分析了泛南海地区年平均和季节平均的日降水的最大值(RX1day)、连续5日降水的最大值(RX5day)、极端强降水天数(R20)和非常湿润天(R95p)的时空变化特征。RX1day、RX5day、R20和R95p常用于表征极端强降水、持续性强降水、极端强降水的频率和极端累计降雨量的特征。1951~2014年泛南海地区年平均和季节平均的四个极端降水指数的较大值均分布在东南亚、中国东南部以及青藏高原南坡地区,即这些区域不仅是极端强降水发生的区域,也是持续性强降水以及高频极端降水发生的区域。季节平均的极端降水指数特征表现为:东南亚一年四季都极易发生强降水、持续性强降水和高频极端降水;南亚、青藏高原以及东亚的各个极端降水指数在夏季最大,秋季和春季次之,冬季最小。SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5情景下2015~2100年泛南海地区年平均和季节平均的四个极端降水指数的空间分布与历史时期相似,且对整个区域而言,各个指数均呈显著增加的趋势。由各个指数在未来三个时段(2016~2035年、2046~2065年和2080~2099年)相比于1995~2014年的百分比变化可知,南亚和青藏高原是泛南海地区未来强降水、持续性强降水以及高频极端降水变化最显著的区域。由此可知,虽然东南亚是历史时期四个极端降水指数的大值区,但该区域各个极端降水指数在未来三个时段的变化没有其他区域明显。此外,以东南亚为例,本文分析了该区域1979~2019年夏季极端降水的形成机理,发现印度洋冷海温异常、热带北大西洋暖海温异常以及热带太平洋和大西洋海温异常是造成东南亚夏季极端降水呈北湿南干、全区一致偏湿和北干南湿的关键因子。