Tropical cyclones(TCs)in the South China Sea(SCS)cause serious disasters and loss every year to the coastal and inland areas of southern China.The types of TCs are usually difficult to forecast,and studies on the unde...Tropical cyclones(TCs)in the South China Sea(SCS)cause serious disasters and loss every year to the coastal and inland areas of southern China.The types of TCs are usually difficult to forecast,and studies on the understanding of the TCs affecting the SCS are lacking.In this study,the authors use the TC data during 1965–2017 from two best-track datasets to analyse the climatic characteristics in terms of the frequency,the track activity,and the influencing indexes of the TCs affecting the SCS and investigate the possible causes.The results show that,during 1965–2017,there were 535 TCs affecting the SCS,mainly occurring from June to November of each year,with the annual average frequency exhibiting a significant downward trend.Meanwhile,the frequency of the track activity in most areas of the SCS also demonstrate a remarkable decreasing trend but an increase in the Gulf of Tonkin and the Taiwan Strait.The large-scale environmental anomalous westerlies and the decrease of humidity in the mid-and low-level over the northern part of the SCS are likely the main causes for the decrease in frequency and the track activity.In addition,the analysis using the cyclone activity index shows that the influence of the before mentioned TCs in southern China gradually decreases,while the influence of TCs in the SCS show a decreasing trend during past decades.展开更多
利用东京台风中心提供的1971—2020年的西北太平洋热带气旋资料,对南海生成热带气旋的发生频数、发生源地、强度和持续时间、移动路径以及大风分布特征进行统计分析。结果表明:南海热带气旋主要生成于5—12月,其中6—9月为盛行期,约有70...利用东京台风中心提供的1971—2020年的西北太平洋热带气旋资料,对南海生成热带气旋的发生频数、发生源地、强度和持续时间、移动路径以及大风分布特征进行统计分析。结果表明:南海热带气旋主要生成于5—12月,其中6—9月为盛行期,约有70%的热带气旋生成;热带气旋生成位置季节变化明显,6—9月多生成于南海北部17°N附近,11月—次年4月多生成于14°N以南的南海南部,5月和10月为季节转换期,生成位置大幅北进或南撤;热带气旋中心最低气压为940~1004 hPa,平均值为985.4 hPa,近中心最大风速为35~85 kt,平均值为48.3 kt,平均持续天数为6.2 d;热带气旋移动路径以西移和西北移路径居多,各月都有发生,其次为东北移路径,主要发生在5—6月;近90%的南海热带气旋10级以上大风以中心呈对称分布,大风圈平均半径为53.2 n mile,在7级以上大风中以中心呈对称分布的略多于不对称分布的,7级大风圈的平均半径为142.3 n mile。展开更多
Using daily precipitation data from 110 stations in Southeast China from 1960 to 2012,the extreme precipitation(EP)events associated with monsoon and tropical cyclones were examined using the Objective Synoptic Analys...Using daily precipitation data from 110 stations in Southeast China from 1960 to 2012,the extreme precipitation(EP)events associated with monsoon and tropical cyclones were examined using the Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique.In Southeast China,the extreme precipitation associated with tropical cyclones(TEP),which mainly occur in the summer(July–September),accounted for 27.9%of the total extreme precipitation amount,with 40–50%in the coastal regions.While the regional mean TEP amount showed an inconspicuous trend,total EP and monsoon EP(MEP)both showed an increasing trend,with the MEP trend being statistically significant.Although there was little change in the frequency of tropical cyclones affecting Southeast China,the TEP contribution to frequency increased with increasing EP threshold and the frequency of TEP with daily precipitation of more than 300 mm showed an increasing trend in the background of global climate change.The upward trend in the highest-threshold TEP events presents a challenge for mitigation of the damage associated with tropical cyclones.展开更多
基金This work was jointly supported by General Project of Technological Innovation and Application Demonstration of Chongqing Municipality[cstc2018jscx-msybX0165]Special Project for Development of Key Technology for Meteorological Forecast Service of China Meteorological Administration[YBGJXM(2018)04-08]+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China[41875111]Innovation Team Project of Intelligent Meteorological Technology of Chongqing Meteorological Bureau[ZHCXTD-201804].
文摘Tropical cyclones(TCs)in the South China Sea(SCS)cause serious disasters and loss every year to the coastal and inland areas of southern China.The types of TCs are usually difficult to forecast,and studies on the understanding of the TCs affecting the SCS are lacking.In this study,the authors use the TC data during 1965–2017 from two best-track datasets to analyse the climatic characteristics in terms of the frequency,the track activity,and the influencing indexes of the TCs affecting the SCS and investigate the possible causes.The results show that,during 1965–2017,there were 535 TCs affecting the SCS,mainly occurring from June to November of each year,with the annual average frequency exhibiting a significant downward trend.Meanwhile,the frequency of the track activity in most areas of the SCS also demonstrate a remarkable decreasing trend but an increase in the Gulf of Tonkin and the Taiwan Strait.The large-scale environmental anomalous westerlies and the decrease of humidity in the mid-and low-level over the northern part of the SCS are likely the main causes for the decrease in frequency and the track activity.In addition,the analysis using the cyclone activity index shows that the influence of the before mentioned TCs in southern China gradually decreases,while the influence of TCs in the SCS show a decreasing trend during past decades.
文摘利用东京台风中心提供的1971—2020年的西北太平洋热带气旋资料,对南海生成热带气旋的发生频数、发生源地、强度和持续时间、移动路径以及大风分布特征进行统计分析。结果表明:南海热带气旋主要生成于5—12月,其中6—9月为盛行期,约有70%的热带气旋生成;热带气旋生成位置季节变化明显,6—9月多生成于南海北部17°N附近,11月—次年4月多生成于14°N以南的南海南部,5月和10月为季节转换期,生成位置大幅北进或南撤;热带气旋中心最低气压为940~1004 hPa,平均值为985.4 hPa,近中心最大风速为35~85 kt,平均值为48.3 kt,平均持续天数为6.2 d;热带气旋移动路径以西移和西北移路径居多,各月都有发生,其次为东北移路径,主要发生在5—6月;近90%的南海热带气旋10级以上大风以中心呈对称分布,大风圈平均半径为53.2 n mile,在7级以上大风中以中心呈对称分布的略多于不对称分布的,7级大风圈的平均半径为142.3 n mile。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.41375056 and 91224004)the Meteorological Specialty Foundation of China (Grant No.GYHY201206013)
文摘Using daily precipitation data from 110 stations in Southeast China from 1960 to 2012,the extreme precipitation(EP)events associated with monsoon and tropical cyclones were examined using the Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique.In Southeast China,the extreme precipitation associated with tropical cyclones(TEP),which mainly occur in the summer(July–September),accounted for 27.9%of the total extreme precipitation amount,with 40–50%in the coastal regions.While the regional mean TEP amount showed an inconspicuous trend,total EP and monsoon EP(MEP)both showed an increasing trend,with the MEP trend being statistically significant.Although there was little change in the frequency of tropical cyclones affecting Southeast China,the TEP contribution to frequency increased with increasing EP threshold and the frequency of TEP with daily precipitation of more than 300 mm showed an increasing trend in the background of global climate change.The upward trend in the highest-threshold TEP events presents a challenge for mitigation of the damage associated with tropical cyclones.
