Forecasting Loss of Ecosystem Service Value Using a BP Network: A Case Study of the Impact of the South-to-north Water Transfer Project on the Ecological Environmental in Xiangfan, Hubei Province, China

Objective To recognize and assess the impact of the South-to-north Water Transfer Project (SNWTP) on the ecological environment of Xiangfan, Hubei Province, situated in the water-out area, and develop sound scientific countermeasures. Methods A three-layer BP network was built to simulate topology and process of the eco-economy system of Xiangfan. Historical data of ecological environmental factors and socio-economic factors as inputs, and corresponding historical data of ecosystem service value (ESV) and GDP as target outputs, were presented to train and test the network. When predicted input data after 2001 were presented to trained network as generalization sets, ESVs and GDPs of 2002, 2003, 2004... till 2050 were simulated as output in succession. Results Up to 2050, the area would have suffered an accumulative total ESV loss of RMB 104.9 billion, which accounted for 37.36% of the present ESV. The coinstantaneous GDP would change asynchronously with ESV, it would go through an up-to-down process and finally lose RMB89.3 billion, which accounted for 18.71% of 2001. Conclusions The simulation indicates that ESV loss means damage to the capability of socio-economic sustainable development, and suggests that artificial neural networks (ANNs) provide a feasible and effective method and have an important potential in ESV modeling.

Geological conditions and key rock mechanics issues in the Western Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project

In terms of special geological conditions of the Western Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project, the classification method for surrounding rocks is discussed by combining with the construction method of tunnel boring machine （TBM）. The classification standard of surrounding rocks is put forward on the basis of physical simulations and engineering practices. Damage, deformation and evolution of surrounding rocks induced by TBM excavation are discussed. Meanwhile, the long-term deformation mechanisms and stability of surrounding rocks are also studied. On this basis, a three-dimensional constitutive model for interbedded sandstone slate and a fiat shell-joint element-foundation system for calculating internal forces of segment lining are established. The deformation features of surrounding rocks of deep and steep interbedded sandstone slate and their influences on internal forces of segment lining are presented. Finally, the design methods of segment lining constructed in deep and steep flysch are proposed.

Price Analysis of Water Supply for South-to-North Water Transfer Project

The factors influencing the water supply price of a hydraulic project include natural conditions and economic policies. This paper thoroughly demonstrates the water price of South-to-North Water Transfer Project from the viewpoint of economic policies. It is considered that if the project is assigned as a profitable one and built depending on commercial loan from bank completely or mostly, the water price will be too high to be undertaken by users,and if the project places the public good at first while considering the economic benefit, its investment mainly relies on the state (national or local governments) appropriation and self-raised funds and a little from the bank loan on favorable terms, the price determined according to the principle of satisfying the cost and reasonable profit will be relatively lower and can be undertaken by the users in the North China where water shortage is serious. The problem of higher water price of agricultural irrigation to the north of the Yellow River can be tackled by taking measures such as "compensating agriculture by industry" according to foreign practical experiences and relevant suggestions.

Water Security Situation in Haihe River Basin after South-to-North Water Transfer Project

The over-exploitation of water resources in the Haihe River Basin (HRB) has now become a serious problem. This is clearly evidenced by the fact that many local rivers and lakes are drying up and the total amount of over-exploited groundwater has reached over 1000×108m3. It is important to note that the exploitation of water resources in HRB was reasonable before 1979. After 1980, however, over-exploitation happened with an annual average amount of 40×108m3. Both the dry season and rapid economic growth in HRB took place at the same time. Therefore, the over-exploitation of water in HRB was actually the negative result of the conjunction of a continuous dry season and rapid economic growth. So the over-exploitation would not be as serious as it is today if either of the above two stopped. After the first stage of south-to-north water transfer project, the water shortage problem in HRB could be eased for the following reasons: fi rstly, water transfer project will bring to the Basin 60×108m3 water resources; secondly, a wet season will come back eventually according to natural law of climate variability; finally, its agricultural and industrial use and total water consumption all have decreased from the peak value, so that the groundwater table will raise certainly and ecological water in rivers and lakes that were dried-up will be partly restored. In the future, the main problem of water resources security in HRB will include water pollution, operation risk of the south-to-north water transfer project, groundwater pollution and engineering geological hazards that may be brought by groundwater rise. The proposed countermeasures are as follows: keeping strengthening water demand management, raising water price as well as subsidies for the low-income family and improving other water related policies, preventing and dealing with water pollution seriously and getting fully prepared for the operation of south-to-north water transfer project.

Evolution trend of the water quality in Dongping Lake after South-North Water Transfer Project in China

To investigate the evolution trend of water quality in Dongping Lake after South-North Water Transfer Project operation as well as to ensure the safe usage of the water receiving areas, water samples were collected and determined before and after water delivery in different hydrological seasons. Then, comprehensive pollution index method, comprehensive nutrition state index method and health risk assessment model were utilized to evaluate the quality, nutrition, and health risk of Dongping Lake water. Results showed that the quality of Dongping Lake water still met level Ⅲ (light pollution) no matter before or after water delivery. The nutrition state was improved from light eutropher before water delivery to mesotropher after water delivery. The health risk level was reduced from high-medium before water delivery to medium level after water delivery. In summary, the operation of the eastern route of South-North Water Transfer Project is beneficial for water environment improvement of Dongping Lake.

Eco-environmental benefit assessment of China's South-North Water Transfer Scheme——the middle route project

This paper assess the eco-environmental benefits that may come from the middle route project of China's South-North Water Transfer Scheme(SNWT) with principles and methods of eco-economics and planning reports of SNWT's middle route project. Some benefits were calculated in monetary units. To make sure that the results can be comparable with normal monetary indices, concrete assessment objects and the parameters are prudently selected according to the major characteristics of the project and its water import region. Primary assessment revealed that in different project construction stages, the benefit could be more than 13 07 billion RMB Yuan in 2010 and 19 79 billion RMB Yuan in 2030, respectively. The monetary value tends to increase with social-economic development. To realize these potential benefits, however, calls for more endeavors.

LONG AND DEEP DIVERSION TUNNELS OF 1^(ST) STAGE PROJECT IN WEST ROUTE OF SOUTH-NORTH WATER TRANSFER PROJECT

West Route of South-North Water Transfer Project,situated in southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,is a giant project,which will deliver 17 billion m3 of water from the main stream and tributaries upstream of the Yangtze River to the upper reaches of the Yellow River. It is to be constructed in 3 stages, of which the 1st stage project includes delivering 4 billion m3 of water by gravity from two tributaries of Yalong River and three tributaries of Dadu River. The project consists of 5 dams,7 tunnels and a channel in series,with the dam height of 63～123 m and water transfer length of 260.3 km,of which the tunnels measure 244.1 km. The special climatic,environmental and geologic conditions make the project much more complicated in construction,especially 3 tunnels with the length longer than 50 km each create challenges to the technical requirements of engineering survey,design and construction.

南水北调西线工程水源区可调水量“十问”

南水北调西线工程是我国“四横三纵”国家水网主骨架尚待建设的最后一环,而水源区可调水量是西线工程规划论证面临的焦点和难点问题。本文从水资源本底条件与演变趋势,生态环境与经济社会发展需水,调蓄水库与输水工程规模,调水对水源区及其下游水资源开发利用、水生态环境、水力发电、航运等方面影响的角度,提出了与水源区可调水量相关的10个问题;以长江上游分布式水文模型为基础,建立了南水北调西线工程水源区可调水量模拟分析模型,力图系统、定量地回答所提问题。本文的主要研究结论有:在仅考虑满足水源区河道内外生态环境和经济社会需水的前提下,“上线+下线”组合方案多年平均可调水量为1.59×10^(10)m^(3),“完全下线”方案在建设岗托水库进行联调时,多年平均可调水量将达到1.74×10^(10)m^(3);在综合考虑调水对水源区水平衡、水力发电和航运影响及其可接受程度后,南水北调西线水源区可调水量为1.22×10^(10)~1.26×10^(10)m^(3)。长远来看,应谋划西南片区水网与国家水网主骨架、“大动脉”的连接与融合,在减小南水北调西线工程调水影响的同时,提高南水北调西线工程的整体供水能力以及对气候变化等外部条件的适应性。

南水北调东线一期工程受水区生态环境效益演变

研究南水北调东线一期工程通水以来受水区生态环境效益的演变态势,对南水北调后续工程高质量建设、加快构建国家水网以及促进工程综合效益发挥有决策参考作用。以定性定量相结合的方式分析东线一期工程在优化水资源配置、保障饮水安全、复苏河湖生态环境和畅通南北经济循环等方面的作用,进而结合层次分析法,从直接效益和间接效益2个方面,筛选构建东线一期工程受水区生态环境效益评价指标体系,主要包括工程年供水量、水质改善度、生态补水量、地下水压采量、地下水水位、水域面积、绿地面积和涵养水源等,并采用VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje(VIKOR)多准则妥协解排序方法对南水北调东线一期工程通水以来即2013-2022年受水区生态环境效益演变态势进行分析。结果表明:南水北调东线一期工程通水的10年以来,受水区的生态环境整体复苏效果明显,近3年排序值保持在0.8以上;受降水偏枯进而影响地下水开采量和地下水水位等因素影响,2019年间接生态环境效益下降29.2%,之后迅速恢复并保持稳定。在分析直接效益和间接效益演变的基础上,从工程提质增效、提高工程水质状况以及完善体制机制建设等方面提出东线一期工程进一步促进受水区生态环境持续改善的策略和建议,以期为东线工程及受水区生态环境保护及高质量发展相关研究、决策制定等提供参考。

协同推进南水北调后续工程和长江经济带高质量发展

推动长江经济带高质量发展,是以习近平同志为核心的党中央作出的重大决策,是关系党和国家事业发展全局的重大战略。南水北调东、中、西三条线均以长江为水源,是跨流域跨区域配置水资源的骨干工程,是国家水网的主骨架和大动脉,在保障国家经济安全、粮食安全、生态安全等方面具有基础性、战略性作用。两者联系紧密,互促共生。文章通过对长江经济带高质量发展内涵的分析,以及在国家水安全保障、长江经济带高质量发展对南水北调高质量发展的具体要求梳理的基础上,对共同推进南水北调和长江经济带高质量发展提出了初步的认识和思考。

Simulation of Transport Channel in China's Middle Route South-to-North Water Transfer Project

The unsteady flow in the Middle Route South-to-North Water Transfer Channel was simulated numerically using an implicit solution procedure for the Saint Venant equations. An equivalent roughness was used to simulate the effect of many transfer structures on the water levels in the main channel. Various gate operating and control methods were analyzed to study the response to disturbances produced by varying the flow rates through the Tianjin outlet. The results show that when the inflow at the head changes in the same way as the sum of the flow rates through all the outlets, the transition time and the fluctuation of the water levels using the timed gate operation method are less than when using the simultaneous gate operation method, but the variations of the gate openings and flow rates through each control gate are much larger. The flow disturbances produced by the Tianjin outlet can be rectified within several channel sections and the transition time can be greatly shortened by allowing the water levels immediately upstream of the control gates to vary within proscribed ranges, rather than being held constant.

2-D NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF FLOODING EFFECTS CAUSED BY SOUTH-TO-NORTH WATER TRANSFER PROJECT

Since the General Channel designed for the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China has to cross many rivers and streams flowing from west to east, there are potentially serious effects additional flooding on the western side of the project alignment. Therefore, a 2-D numerical model for forecasting basin flood disasters was established and verified using historical flood data. The model was applied to researching the interaction between the proposed Project and flooding events for 5 streams in the Anyang River reach as a representative case study. Simulated results indicate that the model could correctly forecast the flood, submerged area and depths, and water surface elevations along the left side of the channel. The discharge capacity and location of hydraulic structures in the transfer canal alignment were analyzed. Then adjustments to the dimensions and positioning of proposed hydraulic structures were recommended at intersections, especially the addition of a channel to transfer flood water from one stream to another, which can effectively limit the sluice and protect the Anyang City from flooding.

南水北调中线京石段闸门间歇关闭水力响应特性

为减小闸门关闭引发的水位壅高,以南水北调中线工程京石段磁河闸至沙河北闸之间的渠池为研究对象,构建一维明渠非恒定渐变流仿真模型,比较分次间歇关闸与一次连续关闸,以及不同闸门间歇方案对闸前壅水峰值、水力振荡稳定时间的影响。研究表明:分次间歇关闸可带来更低的闸前壅水水位和更短的水力振荡稳定时间;设置1次间歇相较于多次间歇可减小闸前壅水峰值,将间歇开始时刻设置在上游降水波即将传播至闸前的时刻、设置间歇时长略小于关闸总时间的1/2均可有效降低闸前壅水峰值,缩短稳定时间。闸门分次间歇关闭水力响应特性与水波运动规律紧密关联,合理设置间歇有助于在应急调控阶段减少事故造成的影响。

南水北调西线水源区大型底栖动物的适宜水文条件

为探索南水北调西线工程水源区大型底栖动物群落结构及其适宜的水文条件,于2022年7月(汛期)及11月(非汛期)在南水北调西线工程水源区开展了2次大型底栖动物采样调查,共记录大型底栖动物50个分类单元。结果表明:西线水源区底栖动物群落组成以节肢动物昆虫纲(Insecta)为绝对优势,占总分类单元数的90.20%。其中,汛期以扁蜉(Heptageniidae sp.,优势度Y=19.9%)为第一优势种,非汛期以襀(Perlidae sp.,优势度Y=13.8%)为第一优势种。时间上,汛期生物密度更高,但非汛期生物多样性及物种均匀度更高;空间上,西线工程上线方案调水河段的生物多样性及生物密度明显高于下线方案。在0~1.0 m/s的流速范围内,不同流速区间的物种数及Margalef多样性指数具有显著差异;且无论是汛期还是非汛期,流速在0.5~1.0 m/s的底栖动物物种数及各项生物多样性指数均处于最高水平。在0~0.6 m的水深范围内,不同水深区间的生物量在汛期或非汛期均具有显著差异,且底栖动物密度整体在0~0.2 m区间内的平均值最高。针对水源区8个优势物种,利用栖境使用模拟法,得到西线工程水源区河流大型底栖动物优势物种的适宜水文条件为水深0.2~0.4 m、流速0.3~0.6 m/s。

南水北调前后北京平原区地下水和地面沉降演变特征

超量开采地下水引发的地面沉降已成为制约北京区域社会经济可持续发展的重要因素之一。2014年12月,南水北调中线工程正式通水,每年向北京输水超过10×10^(8)m^(3),改变了北京供水格局,也为地下水压采、涵养及控制地面沉降创造了条件。本文利用多种监测数据,分析南水进京前后,北京平原区地下水和地面沉降的变化;研究不同水位变化模式下不同岩性及深度土层的变形特征;计算土层不同变形阶段的弹性和非弹性储水率;并对黏性土层产生较大残余变形和滞后变形的原因进行了探讨。结果表明:①2015~2020年,平原区大部分地区第一至第四含水层组地下水位逐渐上升,地面沉降呈减缓的趋势。②第二和第三压缩层组是沉降主要贡献层,除平各庄和榆垡站外,其余各站第三压缩层组沉降占比逐渐增大,沉降主控层有向深部转移的规律。③平原区北部和东部,第二和第三压缩层组对应的地下水位由降转升。在水位下降阶段,土层呈塑性和蠕变变形;水位上升阶段,土层以塑性变形为主,部分时间出现弹性变形,具有黏弹塑性。平原区南部,地下水位始终持续下降,土层变形始终呈塑性和蠕变变形。含水砂层则主要呈弹性变形。④土层变形的不同阶段,弹性和非弹性储水率并不是恒定的,随着地下水位下降,储水率呈减小的趋势。⑤黏性土层存在较大残余变形和变形滞后的原因,一是非弹性储水率大于弹性储水率,二是黏性土层的弱渗透性。

南水北调东线江苏段典型泵站运行效率模拟模型

泵站机组运行受多种因素影响,导致泵站运行理论效率与实际效率误差较大。针对泵站机组运行效率精准模拟难题,运用基于高价多项式回归、回归树、多元线性回归、向量机回归、高斯过程回归、神经网络的10个回归算法,建立泵站机组效率模拟模型并开展对比分析,优选出有效的泵站运行效率模拟建模方法。讨论分析采用“上下游水位+流量”代替传统“扬程+流量”开展泵站运行模拟的效果。以南水北调东线邳州站和遂宁二站共8台机组的历史数据开展实例分析,相关实验结果表明:在所有方法中,高斯过程回归(Gaussian process regression,GPR)模型在均方根误差(ERMS)、平均绝对误差(EMA)、均方误差(EMS)、决定系数(R2)和最大个体误差(EMI)指标上综合表现最佳,R2逼近0.95;使用站上、站下水位代替传统的扬程对模型进行训练,所有模型的综合评价指标整体有所改善。综合来看,使用GPR模型并使用上游、下游水位代替扬程进行模拟效率表现最好,以邳州站4号机为例,可将模拟效率的EMA和EMI分别从16.49%和20.40%减少至0.41%和2.30%,研究成果具有一定实际意义,可为我国调水工程泵站经济运行提供有力支撑。

不同水质评价方法在南水北调东线断面的研究与应用

以2019年南水北调东线工程12个水质监测断面为研究对象,选取溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数、氨氮、总磷、重金属(铜、锌、铅、镉)、粪大肠菌群等9个参评指标的监测结果,采用单因子评价法、内梅罗指数法、综合水质标识指数法和模糊综合矩阵评价法4种水质评价方法对12个断面水质情况进行评价分析。结果表明,12个断面的水质情况较好,老山乡断面(湖库)采用单因子评价法的水质评价结果为Ⅴ类,主要超标因子为总磷,其他断面水质采用4种方法的评价结果均为Ⅲ类或Ⅱ类。相对其他3种方法而言,单因子评价法计算简单,考核标准严格,得出的水质类别整体最差。在具体应用实践中,应根据评价目的和断面功能,采用较为合适的评价方法,为南水北调水环境管理提供更加客观的依据。

基于水体交换能力的调水工程对底栖动物群落影响研究

水文条件的改变会引起水生态系统的波动变化,大型调水工程的实施会改变水生生物群落结构。本研究分别调研了南四湖和东平湖在调水工程实施前后一段时间的大型底栖动物群落结构,模拟分析了调水工程引起的湖泊水龄变化特征,从水体交换能力的角度探讨了大型调水工程对湖泊中大型底栖动物群落的影响。结果显示,调水工程运行一段时间后,东平湖中大型底栖动物群落在年尺度上从由小体型的水生昆虫类主导转变为由大体型的软体动物主导,南四湖中软体动物的优势在调水工程实施之后更加凸显。在季节尺度上,软体动物占比通常在调水期(非雨季)减小,而在非调水期(雨季)增大。调水工程的实施改变了湖泊水动力场特征,在年尺度上增强了湖泊水体交换能力,调水入流与入湖径流的叠加使湖泊水体的高流速时间变长,这不利于小体型物种稳定生长,进而导致在年尺度上大体型软体动物的占比逐渐增大。此外,调水工程的实施主要是提升了非雨季湖泊的水体交换能力,但增加调水后的非雨季湖泊水体交换能力仍然小于雨季,这也导致软体动物占比在调水工程实施前后均呈现在雨季减小在非雨季增加的规律。