Global Change in Agricultural Flash Drought over the 21st Century

Agricultural flash droughts are high-impact phenomena, characterized by rapid soil moisture dry down. The ensuing dry conditions can persist for weeks to months, with detrimental effects on natural ecosystems and crop cultivation. Increases in the frequency of these rare events in a future warmer climate would have significant societal impact. This study uses an ensemble of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP) models to investigate the projected change in agricultural flash drought during the 21st century. Comparison across geographical regions and climatic zones indicates that individual events are preceded by anomalously low relative humidity and precipitation, with long-term trends governed by changes in temperature, relative humidity, and soil moisture. As a result of these processes, the frequency of both upperlevel and root-zone flash drought is projected to more than double in the mid-and high latitudes over the 21st century, with hot spots developing in the temperate regions of Europe, and humid regions of South America, Europe, and southern Africa.

Spatiotemporal changes of gross primary productivity and its response to drought in the Mongolian Plateau under climate change

Gross primary productivity(GPP)of vegetation is an important constituent of the terrestrial carbon sinks and is significantly influenced by drought.Understanding the impact of droughts on different types of vegetation GPP provides insight into the spatiotemporal variation of terrestrial carbon sinks,aiding efforts to mitigate the detrimental effects of climate change.In this study,we utilized the precipitation and temperature data from the Climatic Research Unit,the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI),the standardized precipitation index(SPI),and the simulated vegetation GPP using the eddy covariance-light use efficiency(EC-LUE)model to analyze the spatiotemporal change of GPP and its response to different drought indices in the Mongolian Plateau during 1982-2018.The main findings indicated that vegetation GPP decreased in 50.53% of the plateau,mainly in its northern and northeastern parts,while it increased in the remaining 49.47%area.Specifically,meadow steppe(78.92%)and deciduous forest(79.46%)witnessed a significant decrease in vegetation GPP,while alpine steppe(75.08%),cropland(76.27%),and sandy vegetation(87.88%)recovered well.Warming aridification areas accounted for 71.39% of the affected areas,while 28.53% of the areas underwent severe aridification,mainly located in the south and central regions.Notably,the warming aridification areas of desert steppe(92.68%)and sandy vegetation(90.24%)were significant.Climate warming was found to amplify the sensitivity of coniferous forest,deciduous forest,meadow steppe,and alpine steppe GPP to drought.Additionally,the drought sensitivity of vegetation GPP in the Mongolian Plateau gradually decreased as altitude increased.The cumulative effect of drought on vegetation GPP persisted for 3.00-8.00 months.The findings of this study will improve the understanding of how drought influences vegetation in arid and semi-arid areas.

Spatio-temporal variations in trends of vegetation and drought changes in relation to climate variability from 1982 to 2019 based on remote sensing data from East Asia

Studying the significant impacts on vegetation of drought due to global warming is crucial in order to understand its dynamics and interrelationships with temperature,rainfall,and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI).These factors are linked to excesses drought frequency and severity on the regional scale,and their effect on vegetation remains an important topic for climate change study.East Asia is very sensitive and susceptible to climate change.In this study,we examined the effect of drought on the seasonal variations of vegetation in relation to climate variability and determined which growing seasons are most vulnerable to drought risk;and then explored the spatio-temporal evolution of the trend in drought changes in East Asia from 1982 to 2019.The data were studied using a series of several drought indexes,and the data were then classified using a heat map,box and whisker plot analysis,and principal component analysis.The various drought indexes from January to August improved rapidly,except for vegetation health index(VHI)and temperature condition index(TCI).While these indices were constant in September,they increased again in October,but in December,they showed a descending trend.The seasonal and monthly analysis of the drought indexes and the heat map confirmed that the East Asian region suffered from extreme droughts in 1984,1993,2007,and 2012among the study years.The distribution of the trend in drought changes indicated that more severe drought occurred in the northwestern region than in the southeastern area of East Asia.The drought tendency slope was used to describe the changes in drought events during 1982–2019 in the study region.The correlations among monthly precipitation anomaly percentage(NAP),NDVI,TCI,vegetation condition index(VCI),temperature vegetation drought index(TVDI),and VHI indicated considerably positive correlations,while considerably negative correlations were found among the three pairs of NDVI and VHI,TVDI and VHI,and NDVI and TCI.This ecological and climatic mechanism provides a good basis for the assessment of vegetation and drought-change variations within the East Asian region.This study is a step forward in monitoring the seasonal variation of vegetation and variations in drought dynamics within the East Asian region,which will serve and contribute to the better management of vegetation,disaster risk,and drought in the East Asian region.

Spatiotemporal variation of drought characteristics in the Huang- Huai-Hai Plain, China under the climate change scenario

Understanding the potential drought characteristics under climate change is essential to reduce vulnerability and establish adaptation strategies, especially in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain （3H Plain）, which is a major grain production area in China. In this paper, we investigated the variations in drought characteristics （drought event frequency, duration, severity, and intensity） for the past 50 years （1961-2010） and under future scenarios （2010-2099）, based on the observed meteorological data and the Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP） 8.5 scenario, respectively. First, we compared the applicability of three climatic drought indices： the standardized precipitation index （SPI）, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index based on the Penman-Monteith equation （SPEI-PM） and the same index based on the Thornthwaite equation （SPEI-TH） to correlate the recorded agricultural drought areas. Then, we analyzed the drought characteristics using ＇run theory＇ for both historical and the future RCP 8.5 scenario based on the best performing index. Correlation analyses between drought indices and agricultural drought areas showed that SPEI-PM performed better than SPI and SPEI-TH in the 3H Plain. Based on the results of SPEI-PM, drought risks including duration, severity and intensity during 1961-2010 showed an decreasing trend. However, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, drought is expected to rise in frequency, duration, severity, and intensity from 2010-2099, although drought components during the 2010-2039 are predicted to be milder compared with historical conditions. This study highlights that the estimations for atmospheric evaporative demand would create differences in the prediction of long-term drought trends by different drought indices. The results of this study can help inform researchers and local policy makers to establish drought management strategies.

Impacts of climate change on drought risk of winter wheat in the North China Plain

Drought is a major natural disaster causing crop yield losses,while its occurrence mechanism and spatiotemporal variations in a changing climate are still not clear.Based on a long-term climatic dataset(during 1958–2015)from weather stations in the North China Plain(NCP),the influencing mechanism of various climatic factors on drought risk of winter wheat was quantified by using sensitivity analysis,Mann-Kendall trend test and slope estimation.The results indicated that climatic factors have changed considerably over the past six decades in the growth season of winter wheat.As a result,winter wheat suffered from severe droughts(with 350 mm of water deficit during its growth season),particularly at the jointing–heading and heading–mature stages,which were critical to crop yield formation.There were large spatial and temporal variations in drought risk and climatic change factors at different growth stages of winter wheat.Despite precipitation playing a vital role in determining the spatiotemporal patterns of drought risk,high temperature and low humidity along with other climatic factors at key growth stages of winter wheat aggravated drought risk.Particularly,temperature at nearly 90%weather stations showed a notablely upward trend,which exacerbated water deficit and drought risk of winter wheat.Given the complexity and high uncertainty of climate change,these findings provide important information for adapting crop production to future climate change and accompanied droughts while ensuring food security and agricultural sustainability.

Meteorological drought features in northern and northwestern parts of Mexico under different climate change scenarios

Meteorological drought has been an inevitable natural disaster throughout Mexican history and the northern and northwestern parts of Mexico（i.e., the studied area）, where the mean annual precipitation（MAP） is less than 500 mm, have suffered even more from droughts in the past. The aim of this study was to conduct a meteorological drought analysis of the available MAP data（1950–2013） from 649 meteorological stations selected from the studied area and to predict the drought features under the different IPCC-prescribed climate change scenarios. To determine the long-term drought features, we collected 1×10~4 synthetic samples using the periodic autoregressive moving average（PARMA） model for each rainfall series. The simulations first consider the present prevailing precipitation conditions（i.e., the average from 1950 to 2013） and then the precipitation anomalies under IPCC-prescribed RCP 4.5 scenario and RCP 8.5 scenario. The results indicated that the climate changes under the prescribed scenarios would significantly increase the duration and intensity of droughts. The most severe impacts may occur in the central plateau and in the Baja California Peninsula. Thus, it will be necessary to establish adequate protective measures for the sustainable management of water resources in these regions.

Dryness-wetness change and regional differentiation of flood-drought disasters in Guangdong during 1480-1940AD

Based on the historical records of the drought and flood disasters during 1480-1940AD, this paper reconstructs the sequences of wetness index （WI） and drought and flood disasters. We find a good identical relationship between the fluctuation of WI sequence and the δ^18O record of the GISP2 ice core in Greenland, which shows an apparent monsoonal disposal pattern of moisture and temperature. By applying the Morlet Wavelet Transform Method to deal with the data, several apparent periodicities, such as 7-8a, 11-15a, 20-23a and ca 50a, are revealed, among which some can be attributed to the solar forcing. Based on results of Cluster Analysis of dry-wet changes, we resume the regional differentiation pattern of flood-drought disasters all over Guangdong during different climatic intervals in the LIA and, find the western and northern parts of Guangdong have undergone drastic changes in drought-flood regional differentiation, but the eastern part is relatively stable, and the area of the Pearl River Delta shows stable condition of more flood disasters.

Comparative evaluation of impacts of climate change and droughts on river flow vulnerability in Iran

Rivers in arid and semi-arid regions are threatened by droughts and climate change.This study focused on a comparative evaluation of the impacts of climate change and droughts on the vulnerability of river flows in three basins with diverse climates in Iran.The standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index(SPEI)and precipitation effectiveness variables(PEVs)extracted from the conjunctive precipitation effectiveness index(CPEI)were used to analyze the drought severity.To investigate hydrological droughts in the basins,the normalized difference water index(NDWI)and the streamflow drought index(SDI)were calculated and compared.The effects of droughts were assessed under various representative concentration pathway(RCP)scenarios.Changes in the number of wet days and precipitation depth restricted hydrological droughts,whereas an increasing number of dry days amplified their severity.The projected increases in dry days and precipitation over short durations throughout a year under future climate scenarios would produce changes in drought and flood periods and ultimately impact the frequency and severity of hydrological droughts.Under RCP 4.5,an increase in the frequencies of moderate and severe meteorological/hydrological droughts would further affect the Central Desert Basin.Under RCPs 2.6 and 8.5,the frequencies of severe and extreme droughts would increase,but the drought area would be smaller than that under RCP 4.5,demonstrating less severe drought conditions.Due to the shallow depths of most rivers,SDI was found to be more feasible than NDWI in detecting hydrological droughts.©2020 Hohai University.Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Annual growth of Fagus orientalis is limited by spring drought conditions in Iran’s Golestan Province

Due to the lack of a uniform and accurate defi-nition of‘drought’,several indicators have been introduced based on different variables and methods,and the efficiency of each of these is determined according to their relationship with drought.The relationship between two drought indices,SPI(standardized precipitation index)and SPEI(standard-ized precipitation-evapotranspiration index)in different sea-sons was investigated using annual rings of 15 tree samples to determine the effect of drought on the growth of oriental beech(Fagus orientalis Lipsky)in the Hyrcanian forests of northern Iran.The different evapotranspiration calcula-tion methods were evaluated on SPEI efficiency based on Hargreaves-Samani,Thornthwaite,and Penman-Monteith methods using the step-by-step M5 decision tree regression method.The results show that SPEI based on the Penman-Monteith in a three-month time scale(spring)had similar temporal changes and a better relationship with annual tree rings(R^(2)=0.81)at a 0.05 significant level.Abrupt change and a decreasing trend in the time series of annual tree rings are similar to the variation in the SPEI based on the Penman-Monteith method.Factors affecting evapotranspiration,temperature,wind speed,and sunshine hours(used in the Penman-Monteith method),increased but precipitation decreased.Using non-linear modeling methods,SPEI based on Penman-Monteith best illustrated climate changes affecting tree growth.

Hydraulic properties and drought response of a tropical bamboo (Cephalostachyum pergracile)

Bamboo plants are an essential component of tropical ecosystems,yet their vulnerability to climate extremes,such as drought,is poorly understood due to limited knowledge of their hydraulic properties.Cephalostachyum pergracile,a commonly used tropical bamboo species,exhibited a substantially higher mortality rate than other co-occurring bamboos during a severe drought event in 2019,but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear.This study investigated the leaf and stem hydraulic traits related to drought responses,including leaf-stem embolism resistance(P50leaf;P50stem) estimated using optical and X-ray microtomography methods,leaf pressure-volume and water-releasing curves.Additionally,we investigated the seasonal water potentials,native embolism level(PLC) and xylem water source using stable isotope.We found that C.pergracile exhibited strong resistance to embolism,showing low P50leaf,P50stem,and turgor loss point,despite its rapid leaf water loss.Interestingly,its leaves displayed greater resistance to embolism than its stem,suggesting a lack of effective hydraulic vulnerability segmentation(HVS) to protect the stem from excessive xylem tension.During the dry season,approximately 49% of the water was absorbed from the upper 20-cm-deep soil layer.Consequently,significant diurnal variation in leaf water potentials and an increase in midday PLC from 5.87±2.33% in the wet season to 12.87±4.09%in the dry season were observed.In summary,this study demonstrated that the rapid leaf water loss,high reliance on surface water,and a lack of effective HVS in C.pergracile accelerated water depletion and increased xylem embolism even in the typical dry season,which may explain its high mortality rate during extreme drought events in 2019.

Unexpected Diversity in Ecosystem Nutrient Responses to Experimental Drought in Temperate Grasslands

The responses of ecosystem nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to drought are an important component of globalchange studies. However, previous studies were more often based on site-specific experiments, introducing a significantuncertainty to synthesis and site comparisons. We investigated the responses of vegetation and soil nutrientsto drought using a network experiment of temperate grasslands in Northern China. Drought treatment (66%reduction in growing season precipitation) was imposed by erecting rainout shelters, respectively, at the driest,intermediate, and wettest sites. We found that vegetation nutrient concentrations increased but soil nutrient concentrationsdecreased along the aridity gradient. Differential responses were observed under experimentaldrought among the three grassland sites. Specifically, the experimental drought did not change vegetation andsoil nutrient status at the driest site, while strongly reduced vegetation but increased soil nutrient concentrationsat the site with intermediate precipitation. On the contrary, experimental drought increased vegetation N concentrationsbut did not change vegetation P and soil nutrient concentrations at the wettest site. In general, the differentialeffects of drought on ecosystem nutrients were observed between manipulative and observationalexperiments as well as between sites. Our research findings suggest that conducting large-scale, consistent, andcontrolled network experiments is essential to accurately evaluate the effects of global climate change on terrestrialecosystem bio-geochemistry.

DROUGHT DISASTERS AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE DURING PAST 30 YEARS IN AFRICA

A number of very serious drough disasters occurred in many regions of Aftica during past 30 years. It is commonly considered that they are among the most serious disasters after the World War II. The basic situation of the droughs and drough disasters are introduced briefly, and the main causes resulting 1i drought disasters are analysed in the paper. The lack of rainfall is one of the factors producing the drough disasters in Africa, but it is not the real one. From environmental viewpoints, the drough disasters in Africa resulted from unsuitable land use and management by man, and in essence they are the results of man-made environmental disturbance. Finally, the strategy for preventing drought disasters in Africa is suggested.

Vegetation change and its response to drought in Inner Mongolia of northern China from 1998 to 2013

Vegetation plays a significant role in global terrestrial ecosystems and in combating desertification.We analyzed vegeta tion change in Inner Mongolia of northern China using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)from 1998 to 2013,which is an important composite of Chinese National Ecological Security Shelter.The correlation between vegeta tion growth and drought quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)was also ex plored.Results show that vegetation in most of the study area has been rehabilitated to various degrees,especially in re gions such as most of the Horqin Sandy Land,eastern Ordos Plateau,Hetao Plain,as well as the middle-northern Da Hing gan Ling Mountains.Vegetation improvement in spring was significant in most of the study area.Vegetation degradation was centrally distributed in Xilingol grassland close to the Sino-Mongolia border and abandoned croplands in Ulanqab Meng.Vegetation change trends and seasonal differences varied among different vegetation types.The biggest vegetation variation in the growing season was the belt-like distribution along those grasslands close to the precipitation isoline of 200 mm and the Sino-Mongolia border,but also variation in summer and autumn exist in obvious spatial differences be tween grasslands and forests.Drought largely influenced vegetation change of Inner Mongolia at 6-month scale or 12-month scale,except for forests of eastern Hunlun Buir Meng and deserts or gobi deserts of western Alxa Meng.Moreover,drought in the previous winter and early spring seasons had a lag effect on growing-season vegetation.Desert grassland was the most easily affected by drought in the study area.Anthropogenic activities have made great progress in improving local vegetation under the lasting drought background.

Simulation of Change Trend of Drought in Shaanxi Province in Future Based on PRECIS Model

[Objective] The aim was to predict the change trend of drought in Shaanxi Province in future. [Method] Based on the regional climate model PRECIS from Hadley Climate Center, British Meteorological Bureau, taking precipitation anomaly percentage as assessment index, the change trend of drought in Shaanxi Province in reference years (1971-1990) was simulated, and the change trend of drought in Shaanxi Province from 2071 to 2100 was predicted. [Result] The simulated value of drought frequency in reference years could simulate the distribution of drought well, namely drought frequency was high in the north and low in the south; annual mean frequency of drought above second grade decreased gradually from north to south in future, and it was the highest in northern Shaanxi (above 4 times) and lowest in southern Shaanxi (below 2.5 times); drought frequency in future went down in northern Shaanxi from southern Yulin to Yan’an, eastern Guanzhong (including Weibei) and the west of southern Shaanxi, while it went up in the north of northern Shaanxi, Qinling Mountains and Shangluo region in western Guanzhong. [Conclusion] The study could provide theoretical references for the research on the change trend of drought in Shaanxi Province in future.

Future Changes in Drought Characteristics over Southern South America Projected by a CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble

The impact of climate change on drought main characteristics was assessed over Southern South America. This was done through the precipitation outputs from a multi-model ensemble of 15 climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The Standardized Precipitation Index was used as a drought indicator, given its temporal flexibility and simplicity. Changes in drought characteristics were identified by the difference for early (2011-2040) and late (2071-2100) 21st century values with respect to the 1979-2008 baseline. In order to evaluate the multi-model outputs, model biases were identified through a comparison with the drought characteristics from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre database for the baseline period. Future climate projections under moderate and high-emission scenarios showed that the occurrence of short-term and long-term droughts will be more frequent in the 21st century, with shorter durations and greater severities over much of the study area. These changes in drought characteristics are independent on the scenario considered, since no significant differences were observed on drought changes. The future changes scenario might be even more dramatic, taking into account that in most of the region the multi-model ensemble tends to produce less number of droughts, with higher duration and lower severity. Therefore, drought contingency plans should take these results into account in order to alleviate future water shortages that can have significant economic losses in the agricultural and water resources sectors of Southern South America.

Twenty years of drought-mediated change in snag populations in mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forests in Northern Arizona

Background:Snags(standing dead trees)are important biological legacies in forest systems,providing numerous resources as well as a record of recent tree mortality.From 1997 to 2017,we monitored snag populations in drought-influenced mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine(Pinus ponderosa)forests in northern Arizona.Results:Snag density increased significantly in both forest types.This increase was driven largely by a pulse in snag recruitment that occurred between 2002 and 2007,fol owing an extreme drought year in 2002,with snag recruitment returning to pre-pulse levels in subsequent time periods.Some later years during the study also were warmer and/or drier than average,but these years were not as extreme as 2002 and did not trigger the same level of snag recruitment.Snag recruitment was not equal across tree species and size classes,resulting in significant changes in species composition and size-class distributions of snag populations in both forest types.Because trees were far more abundant than snags in these forests,the effect of this mortality pulse on tree populations was far smal er than its effect on snag populations.Snag loss rates increased over time during the study,even though many snags were newly recruited.This may reflect the increasing prevalence of white fir snags and/or snags in the smal er size classes,which general y decay faster than snags of other species or larger snags.Thus,although total numbers of snags increased,many of the newly recruited snags may not persist long enough to be valuable as nesting substrates for native wildlife.Conclusions:Increases in snag abundance appeared to be due to a short-term tree mortality"event"rather than a longerterm pattern of elevated tree mortality.This mortality event fol owed a dry and extremely warm year(2002)embedded within a longer-term megadrought.Climate models suggest that years like 2002 may occur with increasing frequency in the southwestern U.S.Such years may result in additional mortality pulses,which in turn may strongly affect trajectories in abundance,structure,and composition of snag populations.Relative effects on tree populations likely wil be smal er,but,over time,also could be significant.

Spatial Rainfall Variability and an Increasing Threat of Drought, According to Climate Change in Uttaradit Province, Thailand

This study presents the work commenced in northern Thailand on spatial and temporal variability of rainfall. Thirty years (1988-2017) rainfall data of eight meteorological stations were used for assessing temporal variability and trend analysis. The results showed decreasing trend in rainfall from its first half of the observed study period (1988-2002) to last half of the time period (2003-2017) in total average annual as well as monsoonal average rainfall by 14.92% and 15.50% respectively. It was predicted from linear regression results that by 2030 the average annual and monsoonal rainfall will drop by 35% and 34.10% respectively. All stations showed negative trend except Fakara met-station in annual rainfall. In the seasonal trend analysis, the results showed decreasing trend almost in all met-stations. Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to assess the trend. All met-stations show significant negative trend. To assess drought in the study area, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied to 12-month temporal time period. The results predicted meteorological drought in the near future. The spatial distribution of rainfall presented changing phenomena in average annual, monsoonal, winter, and summer seasons in both analyzed periods.

Climate Change: Droughts and Increasing Desertification in the Middle East, with Special Reference to Iraq

Climate change impacts on Earth’s atmosphere have caused drastic changes in the environment of most regions of the world. The Middle East region ranks among the worst affected of these regions. This has taken forms of increasing atmospheric temperatures, intensive heat waves, decreased and erratic precipitation and general decline in water resources;all leading to frequent and longer droughts, desertification and giving rise to intensive and recurrent (SDS). The present conditions have led to increasing emissions of (GHG) in the earth atmosphere. All future projections especially those using (IPCC) models and emission scenarios indicate that the Middle East will undergo appreciable decrease in winter precipitation with increasing temperature until the end of this century both of which are inductive to increased dryness and desertification. Iraq as one of the countries of this region and due to its geographical location, its dependence mostly on surface water resources originating from neighboring countries, long years of neglect and bad land management put it in the most precarious and unstable position among the other countries of the region. Modelling studies have shown that Iraq is suffering now from excessive dryness and droughts, increasing loss of vegetation cover areas, increasing encroachment of sand dunes on agricultural lands, in addition to severe and frequent (SDS). These negative repercussions and their mitigations require solutions not on the local level alone but collective cooperation and work from all the countries of the region.

Response of Vegetation Cover Change to Drought at Different Time-scales in the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Region,China

Dominated by an arid and semiarid continental climate,the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Region(BTSSR)is a typical ecologically fragile region with frequently occurring droughts.To provide information for regional vegetation protection and drought prevention,we assessed the relations between vegetation cover change(measured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI)and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)at different time-scales,in different growth stages,in different subregions and for different vegetation types based on the Pearson's correlation coefficient in the BTSSR from 2000 to 2017.Results showed that 88.19%of the vegetated areas experienced increased NDVI in the growing season;48.3%of the vegetated areas experi-enced significantly increased NDVI(P<0.05)and were mainly in the south of the BTSSR.During the growing season,a wetter climate contributed to the increased vegetation cover from 2000 to 2017,and NDVI anomalies were closely related to SPEI.The maximum correlation coefficient in the growing season(Rmax)was significantly positive(P<0.05)in 97.84%of the total vegetated areas.In the vegetated areas with significantly positive Rmax,pixels with short time-scales(1-3 mon)accounted for the largest proportion(33.9%).The sensitivity of vegetation to the impact of drought rose first and then decreased in the growing season,with a peak in July.Compared with two subregions in the south,subregions in the north of the BTSSR were more sensitive to the impacts of drought variations,especially in the Xilingol Plateau and Wuzhumuqin Basin.All four major vegetation types were sensitive to the effects of drought variations,especially grasslands.The time-scales of the most impacting droughts varied with growth stages,regions,and vegetation types.These results can help us understand the relations between vegetation and droughts,which are important for ecological restoration and drought prevention.

Evaluation of spatial-temporal dynamics in surface water temperature of Qinghai Lake from 2001 to 2010 by using MODIS data

Lake surface water temperature （SWT） is an important indicator of lake state relative to its water chemistry and aquatic ecosystem,in addition to being an important regional climate indicator.However,few literatures involving spatial-temporal changes of lake SWT in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,including Qinghai Lake,are available.Our objective is to study the spatial-temporal changes in SWT of Qinghai Lake from 2001 to 2010,using Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS） data.Based on each pixel,we calculated the temporal SWT variations and long-term trends,compared the spatial patterns of annual average SWT in different years,and mapped and analyzed the seasonal cycles of the spatial patterns of SWT.The results revealed that the differences between the average daily SWT and air temperature during the temperature decreasing phase were relatively larger than those during the temperature increasing phase.The increasing rate of the annual average SWT during the study period was about 0.01℃/a,followed by an increasing rate of about 0.05℃/a in annual average air temperature.The annual average SWT from 2001 to 2010 showed similar spatial patterns,while the SWT spatial changes from January to December demonstrated an interesting seasonal reversion pattern.The high-temperature area transformed stepwise from the south to the north regions and then back to the south region from January to December,whereas the low-temperature area demonstrated a reversed annual cyclical trace.The spatial-temporal patterns of SWTs were shaped by the topography of the lake basin and the distribution of drainages.