Dynamic adaptive spatio-temporal graph network for COVID-19 forecasting

Appropriately characterising the mixed space-time relations of the contagion process caused by hybrid space and time factors remains the primary challenge in COVID-19 forecasting.However,in previous deep learning models for epidemic forecasting,spatial and temporal variations are captured separately.A unified model is developed to cover all spatio-temporal relations.However,this measure is insufficient for modelling the complex spatio-temporal relations of infectious disease transmission.A dynamic adaptive spatio-temporal graph network(DASTGN)is proposed based on attention mechanisms to improve prediction accuracy.In DASTGN,complex spatio-temporal relations are depicted by adaptively fusing the mixed space-time effects and dynamic space-time dependency structure.This dual-scale model considers the time-specific,space-specific,and direct effects of the propagation process at the fine-grained level.Furthermore,the model characterises impacts from various space-time neighbour blocks under time-varying interventions at the coarse-grained level.The performance comparisons on the three COVID-19 datasets reveal that DASTGN achieves state-of-the-art results with a maximum improvement of 17.092%in the root mean-square error and 11.563%in the mean absolute error.Experimental results indicate that the mechanisms of designing DASTGN can effectively detect some spreading characteristics of COVID-19.The spatio-temporal weight matrices learned in each proposed module reveal diffusion patterns in various scenarios.In conclusion,DASTGN has successfully captured the dynamic spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19,and considering multiple dynamic space-time relationships is essential in epidemic forecasting.

Spatio-Temporal Change of Dispersal Areas of Greater Kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros) in Lake Bogoria Landscape, Kenya

Decline in wildlife populations is manifest globally, regionally and locally. A wildlife decline of 68% has been reported in Kenya’s rangelands with Baringo County experiencing more than 85% wildlife loss in the last four decades. Greater Kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros) is endemic to Lake Bogoria landscape in Baringo County and constitutes a major tourist attraction for the region necessitating use of its photo on the County’s logo and thus a flagship species. Tourism plays a central role in Baringo County’s economy and is a major source of potential growth and employment creation. The study was carried out to assess spatio-temporal change of dispersal areas of Greater Kudu (GK) in Lake Bogoria landscape in the last four years for enhanced adaptive management and improved livelihoods. GK population distribution primary data collected in December 2022 and secondary data acquired from Lake Bogoria National Game Reserve (LBNGR) for 2019 and 2020 were digitized using in a Geographic Information System (GIS). Measures of dispersion and point pattern analysis (PPA) were used to analyze dispersal of GK population using GIS. Spatio-temporal change of GK dispersal in LBNR was evident thus the null hypothesis was rejected. It is recommended that anthropogenic activities contributing to GK’s habitat degradation be curbed by providing alternative livelihood sources and promoting community adoption of sustainable technologies for improved livelihoods.

Study on Ecological Change Remote Sensing Monitoring Method Based on Elman Dynamic Recurrent Neural Network

In this paper, Hailin City of Heilongjiang Province, China is taken as the research area. As an important city in Heilongjiang Province, China, the sustainable development of its ecological environment is related to the opening up, economic prosperity and social stability of Northeast China. In this paper, the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) of Hailin City in recent 20 years was calculated by using Landsat 5/8/9 series satellite images, and the temporal and spatial changes of the ecological environment in Hailin City were further analyzed and the influencing factors were discussed. From 2003 to 2023, the mean value of RSEI in Hailin City decreased and increased, and the ecological environment decreased slightly as a whole. RSEI declined most significantly from 2003 to 2008, and it increased from 2008 to 2013, decreased from 2013 to 2018, and increased from 2018 to 2023 again, with higher RSEI value in the south and lower RSEI value in the northwest. It is suggested to appropriately increase vegetation coverage in the northwest to improve ecological quality. As a result, the predicted value of Elman dynamic recurrent neural network model is consistent with the change trend of the mean value, and the prediction error converges quickly, which can accurately predict the ecological environment quality in the future study area.

Analysis of Imaging Characteristics and Dynamic Changes of 3 Cases of Severe Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia in Qinghai Province

Objective:To analyze the characteristics,dynamic changes,and outcomes of the first imaging manifestations of 3 patients with severe COVID-19 in our hospital.Methods:Computed tomography(CT)findings of 3 patients with severe COVID-19 who tested positive by the nucleic acid test in our hospital were selected,mainly focusing on the morphology,distribution characteristics,and dynamic changes of the first CT findings.Results:3 patients with severe pneumonia were older,with one aged 80.The first chest CT examination for all 3 patients differed.Imaging showed a leafy distribution of consolidation,primarily affecting the lower lobes of both lungs and extending subpleurally.A grid-like pattern was observed,along with changes in the consolidation and air bronchogram.These changes had slower absorption,especially in patients with underlying diseases.Conclusion:CT manifestations of severe COVID-19 have specific characteristics and the analysis of their characteristics and dynamic changes provide valuable insights for clinical treatment.

Spatio-temporal variations in trends of vegetation and drought changes in relation to climate variability from 1982 to 2019 based on remote sensing data from East Asia

Studying the significant impacts on vegetation of drought due to global warming is crucial in order to understand its dynamics and interrelationships with temperature,rainfall,and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI).These factors are linked to excesses drought frequency and severity on the regional scale,and their effect on vegetation remains an important topic for climate change study.East Asia is very sensitive and susceptible to climate change.In this study,we examined the effect of drought on the seasonal variations of vegetation in relation to climate variability and determined which growing seasons are most vulnerable to drought risk;and then explored the spatio-temporal evolution of the trend in drought changes in East Asia from 1982 to 2019.The data were studied using a series of several drought indexes,and the data were then classified using a heat map,box and whisker plot analysis,and principal component analysis.The various drought indexes from January to August improved rapidly,except for vegetation health index(VHI)and temperature condition index(TCI).While these indices were constant in September,they increased again in October,but in December,they showed a descending trend.The seasonal and monthly analysis of the drought indexes and the heat map confirmed that the East Asian region suffered from extreme droughts in 1984,1993,2007,and 2012among the study years.The distribution of the trend in drought changes indicated that more severe drought occurred in the northwestern region than in the southeastern area of East Asia.The drought tendency slope was used to describe the changes in drought events during 1982–2019 in the study region.The correlations among monthly precipitation anomaly percentage(NAP),NDVI,TCI,vegetation condition index(VCI),temperature vegetation drought index(TVDI),and VHI indicated considerably positive correlations,while considerably negative correlations were found among the three pairs of NDVI and VHI,TVDI and VHI,and NDVI and TCI.This ecological and climatic mechanism provides a good basis for the assessment of vegetation and drought-change variations within the East Asian region.This study is a step forward in monitoring the seasonal variation of vegetation and variations in drought dynamics within the East Asian region,which will serve and contribute to the better management of vegetation,disaster risk,and drought in the East Asian region.

Spatio-temporal distribution of net primary productivity along the northeast China transect and its response to climatic change

An improved Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach model （CASA model） was used to estimate the net primary productivity （NPP） of the Northeast China Transect （NECT） every month from 1982 to 2000. The spatial-temporal distribution of NPP along NECT and its response to climatic change were also analyzed. Results showed that the change tendency of NPP spatial distribution in NECT is quite similar to that of precipitation and their spatial correlation coefficient is up to 0.84 （P 〈 0.01）. The inter-annual variation of NPP in NECT is mainly affected by the change of the aestival NPP every year, which accounts for 67.6% of the inter-annual increase in NPP and their spatial correlation coefficient is 0.95 （P 〈 0.01）. The NPP in NECT is mainly cumulated between May and September, which accounts for 89.8% of the annual NPP. The NPP in summer （June to August） accounts for 65.9% of the annual NPP and is the lowest in winter. Recent climate changes have enhanced plant growth in NECT. The mean NPP increased 14.3% from 1980s to 1990s. The inter-annual linear trend of NPP is 4.6 gC·m^-2·a^-1, and the relative trend is 1.17%, which owns mainly to the increasing temperature.

Study on the Quantity Dynamic Changes of Heterobacteria and Vibrios in Larvae Industrialized Culture System

[ Objective ] The dynamic change of heterobacteria and vibrios in larvae industrialized culture system was studied to provide scientific reference for healthy cultivation of shrimp. [ Method ] The heterobacteria, vibrios and pathogenic vibrio parahaemolyticus were monitored in larvae industrialized culture system. [ Result] The heterobacteria, vibrios and pathogenic vibrio parahaemolyticus were the most in fertilized eggs of shrimp but the least in nauplius, then their number would increase with growth. During whole rearing period, both boterobacteria in larvae, vibrios in water would increase by one order of magnitude, while both vibrios in larvae and heterobacteria in water would increase by two orders of magnitude. There were many heterobacteria and vibrios but few vibrio parahaemolyticus in living bait. The correlation coefficients between larvae and heterobacteria and vibrios in water were 0. 704 and 0. 840 in culture system respectively, while the correlation among heterobacteria, vibrios in living bait and larvae, water were weak or negative. [ Conclusion ] There was a dynamic relation between water and larvae in rearing period, and restrictly control of culture condition would restrain the occurrence of disease caused by vibrio parahaemolyticus, besides that bacteria number in bait was not obviously correlated with bacteria nubmer in culture system.

Study on Dynamic Changes of Land Utilization and Landscape Layout in Pearl River Estuary

Taking advantage of remote sensing(RS) technology and geographic information system(GIS) technology to interpret the four periods' data of remote sensing images of Pearl River Estuary in the years of 1990,1995,2000,and 2005,the changes in land utilization and landscape layout of Pearl River Estuary have been analyzed with reference to land utilization dynamic model and quantitative method in landscape ecology.Results indicate several points as followings.①Located in the region typical of high-speed economic development,Pearl River Estuary shows noticeable changes in land types and evident spatial temporal difference.During these 15 years,the areas of cultivated land and forests have experienced dramatic decline while the land for construction purposes shows the trend of powerful increase.②On the prospect of variation,landscape metrics have indicated great differences among other landscape pattern indices except for Area-Weighted Mean Patch Fractal Dimension(AWMPFD) especially during the period from 1990 to 1995 which experiences the most obvious changes.③On the prospect of landscape,landscape pattern indices also indicate great changes in the landscape layout of Pearl River Estuary from 1990 to 2005 as well as noticeable increase in the number of patches,and various landscape pattern indices show the increase in the degree of regional landscape fragmentation and increase in diversity.

RS and GIS-based Analysis on Dynamic Changes of Landscape Pattern on Urban-rural Fringe——A Case Study of Licheng District, Jinan City of China

By using GIS, RS and landscape ecology, LandsatTM (1993 and 2009) and ETM (2001) remote sensing images of Licheng District of Ji’nan City, Shandong Province were interpreted, and dynamic changes of landscape pattern in the district were analyzed at the levels of class and landscape. The results showed that during the 16 years the landscape pattern in the district had changed significantly. (a) From the perspective of patch category, areas of arable land, woodland and grassland decreased unceasingly, and arable land accounted for the largest reduction from 488.15 km 2 in 1993 down to 324.37 km 2 in 2009, witnessing a reduction rate of 33.56%. But the patch quantity and fragmentation increased, patch connectivity reduced. Spatial pattern of construction land expanded and its area witnessed a significant increase of 147.05%. Patch cohesion index increased and connectivity grew better. (b) From the perspective of overall landscape, patch quantity, contagion and perimeter-area fractal dimension decreased, patch shape became simple, the Shannon’s diversity index, Shannon’s evenness index and splitting index increased, landscape heterogeneity rose. With the rapid social and economic development, landscape pattern will be more and more influenced by human behaviors

Numerical simulation of dynamic Coulomb stress changes induced by M6.5 earthquake in Wuding, Yunnan and its relationship with aftershocks

Based on the discrete wavenumber method, we calculate the fields of dynamic Coulomb rupture stress changes and static stress changes caused by M6.5 earthquake in Wuding, and study their relationship with the subsequent after- shocks. The results show that the spatial distribution patterns of the positive region of dynamic stress peak value and static stress peak value are similarly asymmetric, which are basically identical with distribution features of aftershock. The dynamic stress peak value and the static stress in the positive region are more than 0.1 MPa and 0.01 MPa of the triggering threshold, respectively, which indicates that the dynamic and static stresses are helpful for the occurrence of aftershock. This suggests that both influences of dynamic and static stresses should be con- sidered other than only either of them when studying aftershock triggering in near field.

A semi-analytical pressure and rate transient analysis model for inner boundary and propped fractures exhibiting dynamic behavior under long-term production conditions

The loss of hydrocarbon production caused by the dynamic behavior of the inner boundary and propped fractures under long-term production conditions has been widely reported in recent studies.However,the quantitative relationships for the variations of the inner boundary and propped fractures have not been determined and incorporated in the semi-analytical models for the pressure and rate transient analysis.This work focuses on describing the variations of the inner boundary and propped fractures and capturing the typical characteristics from the pressure transient curves.A generalized semi-analytical model was developed to characterize the dynamic behavior of the inner boundary and propped fractures under long-term production conditions.The pressure-dependent length shrinkage coefficients,which quantify the length changes of the inner zone and propped fractures,are modified and incorporated into this multi-zone semi-analytical model.With simultaneous numerical iterations and numerical inversions in Laplace and real-time space,the transient solutions to pressure and rate behavior are determined in just a few seconds.The dynamic behavior of the inner boundary and propped fractures on transient pressure curves is divided into five periods:fracture bilinear flow(FR1),dynamic PFs flow(FR2),inner-area linear flow(FR3),dynamic inner boundary flow(FR4),and outer-area dominated linear flow(FR5).The early hump during FR2 period and a positive upward shift during FR4period are captured on the log-log pressure transient curves,reflecting the dynamic behavior of the inner boundary and propped fractures during the long-term production period.The transient pressure behavior will exhibit greater positive upward trend and the flow rate will be lower with the shrinkage of the inner boundary.The pressure derivative curve will be upward earlier as the inner boundary shrinks more rapidly.The lower permeability caused by the closure of un-propped fractures in the inner zone results in greater upward in pressure derivative curves.If the permeability loss for the dynamic behavior of the inner boundary caused by the closure of un-propped fractures is neglected,the flow rate will be overestimated in the later production period.

Quantifying glacier surging and associated lake dynamics in Amu Darya river basin using UAV and remote sensing data

Glaciers in the Pamir region are experiencing rapid melting and receding due to climate change,which has a significant implication for the Amu Darya river basin.Predominantly,surging glaciers,which undergo unpredictable advances,are potentially leading to the obstruction of high-altitude river channels and also glacial lake outburst floods.decrease of-703.5±30.0 m.There is a substantial increase in the number(from 19 to 75)and area(from 4889.7±0.6 m2 to 15345.5±0.6 m2)of RGS lakes along with supra-glacier ponds based on a comparison of ArcGIS base map in 2011 and high-resolution UAV data in 2023.For M glacier,number of lakes increased from 4 to 22 but the lake area declined from 10715.2±0.6 to 365.6±0.6 m2.It was noted that the largest lake in 2011 with an area of 10406.4±0.6 m2 at the southeastern portion of the glacier was not observed in 2023 due to outburst.Both the glaciers have substantially impacted the river flow(Abdukahor river)by obstructing a significant proportion of river channel in recent years and might cause outburst floods.These findings enhance the understanding of glacier dynamics and their impacts on the surrounding areas,emphasizing the urgent need for continued monitoring and appropriate management strategies,with a specific focus on surging glaciers and the associated risks.

Effects of nitrogen deposition on the carbon budget and water stress in Central Asia under climate change

Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen(N)plays a significant role in shaping the structure and functioning of various terrestrial ecosystems worldwide.However,the magnitude of N deposition on grassland ecosystems in Central Asia still remains highly uncertain.In this study,a multi-data approach was adopted to analyze the distribution and amplitude of N deposition effects in Central Asia from 1979 to 2014 using a process-based denitrification decomposition(DNDC)model.Results showed that total vegetation carbon(C)in Central Asia was 0.35(±0.09)Pg C/a and the averaged water stress index(WSI)was 0.20(±0.02)for the whole area.Increasing N deposition led to an increase in the vegetation C of 65.56(±83.03)Tg C and slightly decreased water stress in Central Asia.Findings of this study will expand both our understanding and predictive capacity of C characteristics under future increases in N deposition,and also serve as a valuable reference for decision-making regarding water resources management and climate change mitigation in arid and semi-arid areas globally.

Anisotropic dynamic permeability model for porous media

Based on the tortuous capillary network model,the relationship between anisotropic permeability and rock normal strain,namely the anisotropic dynamic permeability model(ADPM),was derived and established.The model was verified using pore-scale flow simulation.The uniaxial strain process was calculated and the main factors affecting permeability changes in different directions in the deformation process were analyzed.In the process of uniaxial strain during the exploitation of layered oil and gas reservoirs,the effect of effective surface porosity on the permeability in all directions is consistent.With the decrease of effective surface porosity,the sensitivity of permeability to strain increases.The sensitivity of the permeability perpendicular to the direction of compression to the strain decreases with the increase of the tortuosity,while the sensitivity of the permeability in the direction of compression to the strain increases with the increase of the tortuosity.For layered reservoirs with the same initial tortuosity in all directions,the tortuosity plays a decisive role in the relative relationship between the variations of permeability in all directions during pressure drop.When the tortuosity is less than 1.6,the decrease rate of horizontal permeability is higher than that of vertical permeability,while the opposite is true when the tortuosity is greater than 1.6.This phenomenon cannot be represented by traditional dynamic permeability model.After the verification by experimental data of pore-scale simulation,the new model has high fitting accuracy and can effectively characterize the effects of deformation in different directions on the permeability in all directions.

Effect of Combined Application of Manure and Chemical Fertilizer on the Dynamic Changes of Purple Soil Nutrient and Soil Enzyme Activities

[Objective] The aim was to study the effects of combined of manure and fertilizer on the content of nutrients in purplish soil as well as release dynamics of enzyme activities.[Method] The effects of manure and fertilizer application on the content of AOM,NH＋4-N and NO-3-N in soil as well as release dynamics of enzyme activities were studied by means of simulation culturing.[Result] In the treatments of combined application of simulation culture experiment,the content of active organic matters,NH＋4-N,NO-3-N and soil enzyme activities changed dynamically,which showed a shape of inverted ＂S＂ with two or more peaks.Compared with the treatment of fertilization,their peaks were relatively flat and occurred relatively late,while the treatment of fertilization had only one but the highest peak.The content of active organic matter came to top around 10 d in the order of cow5fertilizer5pig5fertilizer5cow manurepig manurefertilizer Ⅰfertilizer Ⅱ;the activity of urease came to top around 10 d in all treatments and in the order of pig manurecow5fertilizer5cow manurefertilizer Ⅰfertilizer Ⅱpig5fertilizer5.The activity of saccharase was in the order of pig5fertilizer5pig manurecow5fertilizer5cow manureCKfertilizer Ⅱfertilizer Ⅰ.[Conclusion] The study could provide the theoretical basis for reasonable application of manure and fertilizer.

Comprehensive study of the ultrafast photoexcited carrier dynamics in Sb_(2)Te_(3)–GeTe superlattices

Chalcogenide superlattices Sb_(2)Te_(3)-GeTe is a candidate for interfacial phase-change memory(iPCM) data storage devices.By employing terahertz emission spectroscopy and the transient reflectance spectroscopy together,we investigate the ultrafast photoexcited carrier dynamics and current transients in Sb_(2)Te_(3)-GeTe superlattices.Sample orientation and excitation polarization dependences of the THz emission confirm that ultrafast thermo-electric,shift and injection currents contribute to the THz generation in Sb_(2)Te_(3)-GeTe superlattices.By decreasing the thickness and increasing the number of GeTe and Sb_(2)Te_(3) layer,the interlayer coupling can be enhanced,which significantly reduces the contribution from circular photo-galvanic effect(CPGE).A photo-induced bleaching in the transient reflectance spectroscopy probed in the range of~1100 nm to~1400 nm further demonstrates a gapped state resulting from the interlayer coupling.These demonstrates play an important role in the development of iPCM-based high-speed optoelectronic devices.

Dynamic Changes of Nitrogen in Saline-alkaline Paddy Field and Its Potential Environmental Impacts

[Objective] The paper was to study the dynamic changes of nitrogen in saline-alkaline paddy field and its potential environment impacts. [Method] With typical sodic saline-alkaline paddy fields of Songnen Plain as study object,field test method was used to explore the dynamic changes was strong alkof nitrogen in paddy field of the region and its potential impact on environment. [Result] The soil in test regionaline with high CEC and C/N ratios,as well as poor preserving capacity of fertilizer. During the two-year field experiment,the indicators of salinization fluctuated. Initially,the concentrations of total nitrogen and ammonia nitrogen reached their maximum values,then decreased over time as a result of heavy rain. The maximum of nitrate concentration appeared later than those of total nitrogen and ammonia nitrogen. Ammonia volatilization accounted for 18.9%-28.8% of the nitrogen loss. The total nitrogen concentration in surface water was higher than the national Class Ⅲ surface water environmental quality standard. The concentration of ammonia from the recession flow of agricultural field was considerably high,which would potentially threaten the fishery in the downstream of Chagan Lake. [Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for saline-alkaline soil management and conservation of water and fishery resources.

Dynamic changes in lakes in the Hoh Xil region before and after the 2011 outburst of Zonag Lake

Zonag, Kusai, Hedin Noel and Yanhu Lakes are independent inland lakes in the Hoh Xil region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In September2011, Zonag Lake burst after the water level had increased for many years. Floods flowed through Kusai and Hedin Noel Lakes into Yanhu Lake; since then, the four small endorheic catchments merged into one larger catchment. This hydrological process caused the rapid shrinkage of Zonag Lake and continuous expansion of Yanhu Lake. In this study,based on satellite images, meteorological data and field investigations, we examined the dynamic changes in the four lakes and analyzed the influencing factors. The results showed that before 2011, the trends in the four lake areas were similar and displayed several stages. The change in the area of Zonag Lake corresponded well to the change in annual precipitation(AP), but the magnitude of the change was less than that of a non-glacier-fed lake. Although increased precipitation was the dominant factor that caused Zonag Lake to expand, increased glacier melting and permafrost thawing due to climate warming also had significant effects. After the 2011 outburst of Zonag Lake, due to the increasing AP and accelerating glacier melting, the increases in water volume of the three lakes were absorbed by Yanhu Lake, and Yanhu Lake expanded considerably. According to the rapid growth rates in water level and lake area, Yanhu Lake is likely to burst in 1-2 years.

Dynamics and Wheel's Slip Ratio of a Wheel-legged Robot in Wheeled Motion Considering the Change of Height

The existing research on dynamics and slip ratio of wheeled mobile robot （WMR） are derived without considering the effect of height, and the existing models can not be used to analyze the dynamics performance of the robot with variable height while moving such as NOROS- Ⅱ. The existing method of dynamics modeling is improved by adding the constraint equation between perpendicular displacement of body and horizontal displacement of wheel into the constraint conditions. The dynamic model of NOROS- Ⅱ in wheel motion is built by the Lagrange method under nonholonomic constraints. The inverse dynamics is calculated in three different paths based on this model, and the results demonstrate that torques of hip pitching joints are inversely proportional to the height of robot. The relative error of calculated torques is less than 2% compared with that of ADAMS simulation, by which the validity of dynamic model is verified, Moreover, the relative horizontal motion between fore/hind wheels and body is produced when the height is changed, and thus the accurate slip ratio can not be obtained by the traditional equation. The improved slip ratio equations with the parameter of the vertical velocity of body are introduced for fore wheels and hind wheels respectively. Numerical simulations of slip ratios are conducted to reveal the effect of varied height on slip ratios of different wheels. The result shows that the slip ratios of fore/hind wheels become larger/smaller respectively as the height increases, and as the height is reduced, the reverse applies. The proposed research of dynamic model and slip ratio based on the robot height provides the effective method to analyze the dynamics of WMRs with varying height.

Spatio-Temporal Changes in the Rice Planting Area and Their Relationship to Climate Change in Northeast China: A Model-Based Analysis

Rice is one of the most important grain crops in Northeast China （NEC） and its cultivation is sensitive to climate change. This study aimed to explore the spatio-temporal changes in the NEC rice planting area over the period of 1980-2010 and to analyze their relationship to climate change. To do so, the CLUE-S （conversion of land use and its effects at small region extent） model was ifrst updated and used to simulate dynamic changes in the rice planting area in NEC to understand spatio-temporal change trends during three periods： 1980-1990, 1990-2000 and 2000-2010. The changing results in individual periods were then linked to climatic variables to investigate the climatic drivers of these changes. Results showed that the NEC rice planting area expanded quickly and increased by nearly 4.5 times during 1980-2010. The concentration of newly planted rice areas in NEC constantly moved northward and the changes were strongly dependent on latitude. This conifrmed that climate change, increases in temperature in particular, greatly inlfuenced the shift in the rice planting area. The shift in the north limit of the NEC rice planting area generally followed a 1＆#176;C isoline migration pattern, but with an obvious time-lag effect. These ifndings can help policy makers and crop producers take proper adaptation measures even when exposed to the global warming situation in NEC.