Study on the Potential of China’s Fruit and Vegetable Products Export to the RCEP Partners

China is one of the world’s major exporters of fruit and vegetable products,and the expansion of fruit and vegetable exports is important for increasing agricultural income.Based on time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model and trade inefficiency model,this paper empirically analyzes the influencing factors and trade efficiency of China’s fruit and vegetable products export to RCEP partners from 2001 to 2019.The results show that China’s GDP per capita,the population of importing countries,and common language conditions have positive effects on China’s fruit and vegetable products export to RCEP partners.GDP per capita of importing countries,the population of China,and geographical distance between trading parties hinder trade in fruit and vegetable products.The presence of trade inefficiencies constrains China’s fruit and vegetable products export to RCEP partners,with liner shipping connectivity and trade freedom having a positive relationship with export efficiency of fruit and vegetable products.Variable trade costs and fixed trade costs have a negative relationship with export efficiency of fruit and vegetable products,which hinder trade in fruit and vegetable products,while financial freedom and free trade agreements have no significant impact on export efficiency of fruit and vegetable products.

China to Stamp Inspection and Quarantine Marks on Export Foods from September 1, 2007

The General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of China (AQSIQ) announced that as of September 1, 2007,shipping packages of export foods will be stamped with inspection and quarantine marks after the foods are inspected and quarantined in conformity with the entry-exit inspection and quarantine rules. Unstamped packages will be prohibited from export.……

Empirical analysis of carbon tariff's effect on the export structure of China's manufacturing industry and social welfare based on the GTAP model

In recent years,carbon emissions have gradually evolved from an environment issue into a political and economic one.Carbon tariff has brought about new trade barriers of developed countries,and in order to enhance the industrial competitiveness of developed countries,it will produce unfavorable impact on developing countries.Concentrated on the manufacturing industry,which is the most intensive high-carbon industry in China's export structure,this article studies the relationship between carbon tariff policy and industry structure of export trade and builds up a relation between climate change and international trade.First,by means of establishing a partial equilibrium model,it applies geometric analysis and mathematical analysis to compute the impact on China's manufacturing export trade and the consequences of the introduction of the US carbon tariff to China's manufacturing industry that has already imposed a domestic shipping carbon tax.Furthermore,with the application of the GTAP model,it estimates the overall economic and welfare effects on China's manufacturing industry if the US and Europe introduce carbon tariff by means of four ways,and then analyzes the influence on China's manufacturing industry export structure and social welfare as well.The result shows that the introduction of the US carbon import tariff lowers China's export price and export volume,and the implementation of a domestic carbon tax justifies a higher export price and a lower export volume for China.However,the degree of export reduction is smaller than that under the effect of the US carbon tariff.In the case of developed countries imposing carbon tariff on China's energy-intensive industries,such as chemical rubber products,oil and coal-processing industry and paper industry,whose export would be reduced,the negative impact on the paper industry is the severest,which will decrease the paper industry's export ranging from 1.79%to 6.05%,whereas the other industries' export will increase.Anyhow,it will promote China's manufacturing industry to adjust the export structure to a certain extent.In addition,it will lead to a decrease in China's welfare,with a decrease between $2,134 billion and $8,347 billion.Finally,this paper provides information on international coordination,export structure adjustment and green manufacturing adjustment as a reference for the development of China's manufacturing industry.

An Approach of Reducing Overall Level of Export Fluctuations of the Export-oriented Countries

Overall level of export fluctuations of the export-oriented countries with rising export volume partly stem from the market failure caused by free choice of export enterprises,some government intervention thus may be necessary.To reduce the level of fluctuations of the export growth rates in these countries,this paper,taking the significant differences of the exports among various markets into account and thus using a new index named relative variance to measure the export volatility risks,proposes a model of merchandise market portfolio,a modified version of Markowitz model,available to provide explicit guidelines for the firms,the industries and even the whole country to optimize the structure of their export markets.An application of this model to the case of China’s apple is then discussed.The results show that the market share of China’s apple in 7 sub-markets should be redistributed drastically.

Study on Building an Econometric Model of Canada's Newsprint Exports to the United States of America

For predictive purposes and for understanding the relationship between the US market and Canadian newsprint producers an econometric model was built. In this study, a simultaneous-equation model was developed, which consisted of four equations, one each for the supply, export, consumption and price of newsprint. The period of 1955-1986 was covered by this model. The data for the years 1985 and 1986 were reserved to test the predictive power of the model. In fitting the four equations for the period of 1955 -1984, the coefficients of determination, the R -square values, between observed and predicted values were higher than 99 per cent. The test results of the forecasting power showed that there was no statistically significant difference between predicted and observed values at the 5 per cent level of significance. Sources of forecasting error are expressed as three partial inequality coefficients associated with bias, variance and covariance of predicted and observed values. The error could not be

Empirical Analysis on the Impacts of Technical Barrier to Trade on Chinese Agro-products Export

In view of the impacts on Chinese agro-products export caused by various technical barriers to trade,the academic circles analyzed them from the costs and quantity of exported agro-products.On the basis of the status quo of Chinese agro-products,the gravity model is introduced to analyze the impacts on Chinese agro-product export caused by technical barriers to trade.The results show that as long as the quality of Chinese agro-products can achieve the standard set by developed countries,for one thing,the health of Chinese consumers can be ensured,for another thing,the export of Chinese agro-products will be more smooth,which can provide reference for our government to make decisions and solve trade dispute.

Empirically Analysis of the CO_2 Emissions Embodied in Exports of China

In this paper,using the input-output model,the author first calculated the CO 2 emissions embodied in exports of China in 2002 and 2007.Then,the author empirically analyzed problems existing in the composition of exported products and analyzed its possible reasons.The research results of this paper are as follows:Since China's entry into WTO,the CO 2 emissions embodied in exports of China have been increasing rapidly;the value of exported products of high-carbon emissions industries accounts for a relatively higher proportion to China's total exports value because China's carbon intensive products have a certain competitive advantage.Additionally,this paper has put forward relevant suggestions based on these results.

An Analysis on Export Competitiveness of Vegetables from China to ASEAN

The establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area has promoted the friendly bilateral economic cooperation,and ASEAN has become one of the largest vegetable export markets for China. Using constant market share( CMS) model,this paper analyzes the export competitiveness of vegetables from China to ASEAN and the main influencing factors. The results show that competitiveness is the main factor in promoting the export growth of vegetables from China to ASEAN,and compared with demand effect and structure effect,competitiveness effect makes the greatest contribution to export growth.

Overreliance on Net Export and Investment Impedes China's Structural Transformation: Estimation and Analysis Based on a Multi-Sector Growth Model

Since reform and opening-up in 1978, changes in China's industrial structure have generally followed the pattern of "Kuznets facts" but still exhibits some unique characteristics, which led us to raise the following three questions regarding China's structural transformation:(1) Why did the share of China's agricultural and manufacturing employment reduce/increase intermittently rather than continuously?(2) Why did the share of China's agricultural employment increase during certain periods? When the share of manufacturing employment reduced, why did the workforce reversely flow into agriculture rather than move to the service sector?(3) Why did growth in the share of China's service sector employment decelerate before reaching its peak? Why did the share of employment in the industrial sector suddenly increase after an abrupt decline? This paper creates a multisector economic growth model that contains non-homothetic preferences and differentiated productivity, and incorporates the "two drivers" therein for a demand-side estimation and analysis. The result shows that China's economic growth model driven by net export and investment is a critical factor for explaining the three questions regarding its structural transformation. This paper believes that only by implementing supply-side structural reforms, reducing the dependence on net export and investment, and achieving sustainable endogenous economic growth will China be able to expedite its industrial restructuring.

Efficiency and convergence of China’s export trade embodied carbon emissions

Based on the input-output data from 2002 to 2017,this paper combined the three-stage DEA model with the non-competitive I-O model and measured the embodied carbon efficiency of export trade in China’s 26 product sectors,and further investigated its influencing factors and convergence issues.The results of the study showed that:①The embodied carbon efficiency of export trade in China’s overall product sector demonstrated a positive development trend from 2002 to 2017,and this positive trend was more obvious after the implementation of conservation culture construction in 2012.But the differences of embodied carbon emission efficiency level among the product sectors were still significant.②Measured by the K-means clustering analysis method,this study found that agriculture,other service industries,wholesale and retail industries,catering industry,construction industry and manufacturing industry with strong innovation ability were mostly concentrated at high and medium efficiency levels,while industrial sectors with resource dependence and high energy consumption,such as metal smelting and rolling processing industries,non metallic mineral products industry,and coal mining industry,were at a low efficiency level.③All product sectors hadσconvergence,absoluteβconvergence and conditionalβconvergence during 2002-2010 and 2010-2017,and the level of each product sector in 2010-2017 was higher than that in 2002-2010 according to the perspective of convergence speed and degree of convergence.④Technological progress had not fully played a role in suppressing energy consumption and improving the efficiency of embodied carbon efficiency,and it would also widen the gap between the embodied carbon emission efficiency levels of various product sectors.The expansion of trade scale could effectively improve carbon emission efficiency and narrow the gap between sectors.Environmental regulation could effectively promote the improvement of embodied carbon emission efficiency but would widen the level gap between sectors.These findings indicate that China needs to build a sound environmental regulation system for the development of low-carbon trade,continue to reasonably expand the scale of trade,eliminate backward industries with production capacity,vigorously develop low-carbon technologies such as new energy,strengthen the exchange of low carbon technologies and industrial cooperation among sectors,and promote coordinated development among industries.

Study on the Impacts of Japanese Positive List System on the Chinese Frozen Vegetable Exportation

This paper mainly studies the Japanese policy, especially the Positive List System and Health Quarantine System, on the Chinese agricultural products exports, taking the frozen vegetable for example. The authors carry out studies on the related polices, consider the non-policy factors, making comparative analysis among the three countries: China, the USA and Thailand, utilizing trade gravity model. Finally the authors present suggestions to the breaking of the trade barriers.

Empirical Analysis on the Influence of Agricultural Products Export on Economic Growth in China

After entering into WTO,export volume of agricultural products in China quickly increases,but its proportion in total trade volume becomes lower and lower,and there are more and more trade barriers of agricultural products. In this paper,based on the data during 1994-2016,error correction model is established to test and analyze the relationship between economic growth and export of agricultural products in China. The results show that change of agricultural products export in China has positive impact on GDP in short time,and they also have longterm stable relationship. When they lag for different periods,economic growth and export of agricultural products have unidirectional causality.

CGE Model Measures Carbon Duty's Impact on China's Exports

Carbon-motivated border tax adjustment is a unilateral international trade policy aimed at compensating for the loss ofcompetitiveness of carbon-intensive products due to carbon dioxide abatement actions.It violates fundamental principlesof the UNFCCC and potentially conflicts with the core WTO principle of non-discrimination as reflected in the GATTArticle Ⅰ and Article Ⅲ.Based on an analysis of carbon emissions embodied in China’s industrial exports,this paperevaluates with a recursive dynamic CGE model the potential impacts of the carbon duty on China’s industrial production,exports and employment.The results of a simulation show that with a tariff rate of US＄30 or US＄60 per ton of carbon,theoutput of China’s industrial sectors would decline by 0.62-1.22 percent,exports by 3.53-6.95 percent,and employment by1.22-2.39 percent.The authors suggest several measures of alleviating the impacts of carbon duty and put forward a carbonduty policy based on carbon consumption per capita as a countermeasure.

采用STAMP-24Model的多组织事故分析

安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事故分析的方法,并以青岛石油爆炸事故为例进行事故原因分析。结果显示:STAMP-24Model可以分组织,分层次且有效、全面、详细地分析涉及多个组织的事故原因,探究多组织之间的交互关系;对事故进行动态演化分析,可得到各组织不安全动作耦合关系与形成的事故失效链及管控失效路径,进而为预防多组织事故提供思路和参考。

RCEP协定下跨境电商对贸易影响的时间差异性研究

为了拓宽双循环渠道,打开外循环新思路,以中国与RCEP成员国在2010年至2021年间进出口面板数据结合中国跨境电商交易额建立VAR模型,研究跨境电子商务发展对我国进出口贸易的动态影响。结果表明,在长期,跨境电商的发展使得发展中国家与我国双边贸易弹性系数高于发达国家,跨境电商的发展有利于我国同发展中国家进行贸易往来;在短期,跨境电商的发展对中国与韩国等部分国家的进出口存在逐渐增强的正向影响;跨境电商的发展对我国与多国贸易存在双向动态交互关系。

多重防护机制下LNG动力船风险态势分析方法

为探讨多重防护机制下的液化天然气(Liquefied Natural Gas,LNG)动力船营运风险特征,提出了一种基于复杂性控制系统作用模式的风险态势分析方法。从系统控制过程视角,采用系统控制过程分析方法(System-Theoretic Process Analysis,STPA)确立LNG动力船系统安全控制的风险致因,揭示基于LNG泄漏三重防护机制的风险因子体系和风险形成机制;引入隐马尔可夫模型(Hidden Markov Model,HMM),进行无监督学习并确立模型参数,推理多重防护机制下的LNG动力船风险转移特征;结合LNG动力船营运的具体场景,对三重防护机制分别进行仿真并统计风险态势。仿真结果表明,三重防护机制在降低LNG动力船营运风险态势方面具有因子诱导的针对性,在防漏因子、止漏因子和治漏因子诱导下LNG动力船分别趋向一般风险状态、较高风险状态和高风险状态。基于复杂性控制系统作用模式的风险态势分析可为LNG动力船营运的安全控制和风险管理提供管控模式和手段。

郑州“7·20”地铁水淹事件STAMP致因分析

为探讨河南郑州“7·20”地铁5号线伤亡事件致因,综合运用系统理论事件模型与过程(STAMP)模型,分析5号线伤亡事件安全控制结构,据此逐级辨识事件致因;基于复杂网络理论将事件致因及其联系抽象为网络的节点和边,建立地铁水灾事件网络;计算聚类系数、度数等拓扑参数定量分析事件致因性质,确定关键致因。结果表明:地方党委政府面对汛情的应对部署不紧不实,缺少有效的组织动员和有关部门对工程建设存在失管失察是事件的深层根源;建设单位、设计单位等五方主体单位及运维单位的主体责任失职是事件的主观关键致因;应从政府及有关部门、五方主体单位和运维单位方面采取多元协同的风险防控措施。

基于时序InSAR的辽河油田地表形变监测及储层参数多模型反演

为获取辽河油田核心产区最新的地表形变与储层参数,基于2021-01~2023-06的Sentinel-1升轨影像,使用StaMPS-SBAS方法提取该区域地表形变。以形变速率结果为观测量,使用复合位错模型、Mogi模型和Okada模型对储层参数进行反演,并与已有研究进行对比分析。结果表明,研究区LOS向形变速率为-165.84~54.52 mm/a,研究时段内最大累积沉降量(LOS向)约为400 mm。区内存在3个显著沉降区,分别为曙光采油厂、欢喜岭采油厂和锦州采油厂,其中曙光采油厂存在一定的沉降减缓趋势,其余采油厂均存在沉降加速趋势。不同模型反演的储层参数存在明显差异,与Okada模型、Mogi模型相比,复合位错模型反演的储层深度(1 665.21 m)与实际最为接近(约1 600 m),且复合位错模型模拟的形变与观测形变最为吻合。

“双碳”背景下中国制造业绿色出口竞争力研究

在“双碳”背景下,提升中国制造业绿色出口竞争力对发展绿色贸易具有重要意义。论文引入碳排放权交易价格,运用多区域投入产出模型,将传统的单位劳动成本改进为单位绿色隐含劳动成本,将出口增加值国际市场份额改进为绿色出口增加值国际市场份额,进而构建绿色出口竞争力指数,测算并比较中国十大制造行业绿色出口竞争力。研究发现,2005—2019年中国大部分制造行业单位绿色隐含劳动成本和绿色出口竞争力指数均在上升,其中单位绿色隐含劳动成本上升最多的是金属制品业,从2005年的0.409上升到2019年的0.780,绿色出口竞争力指数上升最多的是非金属矿物制品业,从0.243上升到1.069。回归结果表明,研发投入和行业规模对中国制造业绿色出口竞争力有显著正向影响。针对以上结论,在“双碳”目标下,论文提出提高劳动生产率、培育可持续竞争优势、加大技术研发投入等政策建议。