Improving the accuracy of precipitation estimates in a typical inland arid area of China using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging approach

Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is a typical inland arid area in China with a sparse and uneven distribution of meteorological stations,limited access to precipitation data,and significant water scarcity.Evaluating and integrating precipitation datasets from different sources to accurately characterize precipitation patterns has become a challenge to provide more accurate and alternative precipitation information for the region,which can even improve the performance of hydrological modelling.This study evaluated the applicability of widely used five satellite-based precipitation products(Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station(CHIRPS),China Meteorological Forcing Dataset(CMFD),Climate Prediction Center morphing method(CMORPH),Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record(PERSIANN-CDR),and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis(TMPA))and a reanalysis precipitation dataset(ECMWF Reanalysis v5-Land Dataset(ERA5-Land))in Xinjiang using ground-based observational precipitation data from a limited number of meteorological stations.Based on this assessment,we proposed a framework that integrated different precipitation datasets with varying spatial resolutions using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging(DBMA)approach,the expectation-maximization method,and the ordinary Kriging interpolation method.The daily precipitation data merged using the DBMA approach exhibited distinct spatiotemporal variability,with an outstanding performance,as indicated by low root mean square error(RMSE=1.40 mm/d)and high Person's correlation coefficient(CC=0.67).Compared with the traditional simple model averaging(SMA)and individual product data,although the DBMA-fused precipitation data were slightly lower than the best precipitation product(CMFD),the overall performance of DBMA was more robust.The error analysis between DBMA-fused precipitation dataset and the more advanced Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Final(IMERG-F)precipitation product,as well as hydrological simulations in the Ebinur Lake Basin,further demonstrated the superior performance of DBMA-fused precipitation dataset in the entire Xinjiang region.The proposed framework for solving the fusion problem of multi-source precipitation data with different spatial resolutions is feasible for application in inland arid areas,and aids in obtaining more accurate regional hydrological information and improving regional water resources management capabilities and meteorological research in these regions.

Cross Validation Based Model Averaging for Varying-Coefficient Models with Response Missing at Random

In this paper, a model averaging method is proposed for varying-coefficient models with response missing at random by establishing a weight selection criterion based on cross-validation. Under certain regularity conditions, it is proved that the proposed method is asymptotically optimal in the sense of achieving the minimum squared error.

Preweaning period is a critical window for rumen microbial regulation of average daily gain in Holstein heifer calves

Background Rumen bacterial groups can affect growth performance,such as average daily gain(ADG),feed intake,and efficiency.The study aimed to investigate the inter-relationship of rumen bacterial composition,rumen fermentation indicators,serum indicators,and growth performance of Holstein heifer calves with different ADG.Twelve calves were chosen from a trail with 60 calves and divided into higher ADG(HADG,high pre-and post-weaning ADG,n=6)and lower ADG(LADG,low pre-and post-weaning ADG,n=6)groups to investigate differences in bacterial composition and functions and host phenotype.Results During the preweaning period,the relative abundances of propionate producers,including g_norank_f_Butyricicoccaceae,g_Pyramidobacter,and g_norank_f_norank_o_Clostridia_vadin BB60_group,were higher in HADG calves(LDA>2,P<0.05).Enrichment of these bacteria resulted in increased levels of propionate,a gluconeogenic precursor,in preweaning HADG calves(adjusted P<0.05),which consequently raised serum glucose concentrations(adjusted P<0.05).In contrast,the relative abundances of rumen bacteria in post-weaning HADG calves did not exert this effect.Moreover,no significant differences were observed in rumen fermentation parameters and serum indices between the two groups.Conclusions The findings of this study revealed that the preweaning period is the window of opportunity for rumen bacteria to regulate the ADG of calves.

Time Synchronous Averaging Based on Cross-power Spectrum

Periodic components are of great significance for fault diagnosis and health monitoring of rotating machinery.Time synchronous averaging is an effective and convenient technique for extracting those components.However,the performance of time synchronous averaging is seriously limited when the separate segments are poorly synchronized.This paper proposes a new averaging method capable of extracting periodic components without external reference and an accurate period to solve this problem.With this approach,phase detection and compensation eliminate all segments'phase differences,which enables the segments to be well synchronized.The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated by numerical and experimental signals.

Solving Multi-Objective Linear Programming Problem by Statistical Averaging Method with the Help of Fuzzy Programming Method

A multi-objective linear programming problem is made from fuzzy linear programming problem. It is due the fact that it is used fuzzy programming method during the solution. The Multi objective linear programming problem can be converted into the single objective function by various methods as Chandra Sen’s method, weighted sum method, ranking function method, statistical averaging method. In this paper, Chandra Sen’s method and statistical averaging method both are used here for making single objective function from multi-objective function. Two multi-objective programming problems are solved to verify the result. One is numerical example and the other is real life example. Then the problems are solved by ordinary simplex method and fuzzy programming method. It can be seen that fuzzy programming method gives better optimal values than the ordinary simplex method.

Libration-Generated Average Convection in a Rotating Flat Layer with Horizontal Axis

The study of average convection in a rotating cavity subjected to modulated rotation is an interesting area for the development of both fundamental and applied science.This phenomenon finds application in the field of mass transfer and fluid flow control,relevant examples being crystal growth under reduced gravity and fluid mixing in microfluidic devices for cell cultures.In this study,the averaged flow generated by the oscillating motion of a fluid in a planar layer rotating about a horizontal axis is experimentally investigated.The boundaries of the layer are maintained at constant temperatures,while the lateral cylindrical wall is thermally insulated.It is demonstrated that libration results in intense oscillatory fluid motion,which in turn produces a time-averaged flow.For the first time,quantitative measures for the instantaneous velocity field are obtained using the Particle Image Velocimetry technique.It is revealed that the flow has the form of counter-rotating vortices.The vortex circulations sense changes during a libration cycle.An increase in the rotation rate and amplitude of the cavity libration results in an increase in the flow intensity.The heat transfer and time-averaged velocity are examined accordingly as a function of the dimensionless oscillation frequency,and resonant excitation of heat transfer and average oscillation velocity are revealed.The threshold curve for the onset of the averaged convection is identified in the plane of control parameters(dimensionless rotational velocity and pulsation Reynolds number).It is found that an increase in the dimensionless rotational velocity has a stabilizing effect on the onset of convection.

Optimizing Average Electric Power During the Charging of Lithium-Ion Batteries Through the Taguchi Method

In recent times, lithium-ion batteries have been widely used owing to their high energy density, extended cycle lifespan, and minimal self-discharge rate. The design of high-speed rechargeable lithium-ion batteries faces a significant challenge owing to the need to increase average electric power during charging. This challenge results from the direct influence of the power level on the rate of chemical reactions occurring in the battery electrodes. In this study, the Taguchi optimization method was used to enhance the average electric power during the charging process of lithium-ion batteries. The Taguchi technique is a statistical strategy that facilitates the systematic and efficient evaluation of numerous experimental variables. The proposed method involved varying seven input factors, including positive electrode thickness, positive electrode material, positive electrode active material volume fraction, negative electrode active material volume fraction, separator thickness, positive current collector thickness, and negative current collector thickness. Three levels were assigned to each control factor to identify the optimal conditions and maximize the average electric power during charging. Moreover, a variance assessment analysis was conducted to validate the results obtained from the Taguchi analysis. The results revealed that the Taguchi method was an eff ective approach for optimizing the average electric power during the charging of lithium-ion batteries. This indicates that the positive electrode material, followed by the separator thickness and the negative electrode active material volume fraction, was key factors significantly infl uencing the average electric power during the charging of lithium-ion batteries response. The identification of optimal conditions resulted in the improved performance of lithium-ion batteries, extending their potential in various applications. Particularly, lithium-ion batteries with average electric power of 16 W and 17 W during charging were designed and simulated in the range of 0-12000 s using COMSOL Multiphysics software. This study efficiently employs the Taguchi optimization technique to develop lithium-ion batteries capable of storing a predetermined average electric power during the charging phase. Therefore, this method enables the battery to achieve complete charging within a specific timeframe tailored to a specificapplication. The implementation of this method can save costs, time, and materials compared with other alternative methods, such as the trial-and-error approach.

Average Secrecy Capacity of the Reconfigurable Intelligent Surface-Assisted Integrated Satellite Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Relay Networks

Integrated satellite unmanned aerial vehicle relay networks(ISUAVRNs)have become a prominent topic in recent years.This paper investigates the average secrecy capacity(ASC)for reconfigurable intelligent surface(RIS)-enabled ISUAVRNs.Especially,an eve is considered to intercept the legitimate information from the considered secrecy system.Besides,we get detailed expressions for the ASC of the regarded secrecy system with the aid of the reconfigurable intelligent.Furthermore,to gain insightful results of the major parameters on the ASC in high signalto-noise ratio regime,the approximate investigations are further gotten,which give an efficient method to value the secrecy analysis.At last,some representative computer results are obtained to prove the theoretical findings.

Nonlinear Relationship and Its Evolutionary Trace between Average Degree and Average Path Length of Edge Vertices of China Aviation Network Based on Complex Network

In order to reveal the complex network characteristics and evolution principle of China aviation network,the relationship between the average degree and the average path length of edge vertices of China aviation network in 1988,1994,2001,2008 and 2015 was studied.According to the theory and method of complex network,the network system was constructed with the city where the airport was located as the network node and the airline as the edge of the network.On the basis of the statistical data,the average degree and average path length of edge vertices of China aviation network in 1988,1994,2001,2008 and 2015 were calculated.Through regression analysis,it was found that the average degree had a logarithmic relationship with the average path length of edge vertices and the two parameters of the logarithmic relationship had linear evolutionary trace.

Probability Distribution of Arithmetic Average of China Aviation Network Edge Vertices Nearest Neighbor Average Degree Value and Its Evolutionary Trace Based on Complex Network

In order to reveal the complex network characteristics and evolution principle of China aviation network,the probability distribution and evolution trace of arithmetic average of edge vertices nearest neighbor average degree values of China aviation network were studied based on the statistics data of China civil aviation network in 1988,1994,2001,2008 and 2015.According to the theory and method of complex network,the network system was constructed with the city where the airport was located as the network node and the route between cities as the edge of the network.Based on the statistical data,the arithmetic averages of edge vertices nearest neighbor average degree values of China aviation network in 1988,1994,2001,2008 and 2015 were calculated.Using the probability statistical analysis method,it was found that the arithmetic average of edge vertices nearest neighbor average degree values had the probability distribution of normal function and the position parameters and scale parameters of the probability distribution had linear evolution trace.

Probability Distribution of China Aviation Network Average Degree of Edge Vertices and Its Evolutionary Trace Based on Complex Network

In order to reveal the complex network characteristics and evolution principle of China aviation network, the probability distribution and evolution trace of average degree of edge vertices of China aviation network were studied based on the statistics data of China civil aviation network in 1988, 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2015. According to the theory and method of complex network, the network system was constructed with the city where the airport was located as the network node and the route between cities as the edge of the network. Based on the statistical data, the average degrees of edge vertices in China aviation network in 1988, 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2015 were calculated. Using the probability statistical analysis method and regression analysis approach, it was found that the average degree of edge vertices had the probability distribution of normal function and the position parameters and scale parameters of the probability distribution had linear evolution trace.

Nonlinear Relationship and Its Evolutionary Trace between Node Degree and Average Path Length of China Aviation Network Based on Complex Network

In order to reveal the complex network characteristics and evolution principle of China aviation network,the relationship between the node degree and the average path length of China aviation network in 1988,1994,2001,2008 and 2015 was studied.According to the theory and method of complex network,the network system was constructed with the city where the airport was located as the network node and the airline as the edge of the network.On the basis of the statistical data,the node average path length of China aviation network in 1988,1994,2001,2008 and 2015 was calculated.Through regression analysis,it was found that the node degree had a logarithmic relationship with the average length of node path,and the two parameters of the logarithmic relationship had linear evolutionary trace.Key word:China aviation network,complex network,node degree,average length of node path,logarithmic relationship,evolutionary trace.

Proactive traffic responsive control based on state-space neural network and extended Kalman filter

The state-space neural network and extended Kalman filter model is used to directly predict the optimal timing plan that corresponds to futuristic traffic conditions in real time with the purposes of avoiding the lagging of the signal timing plans to traffic conditions. Utilizing the traffic conditions in current and former intervals, the network topology of the state-space neural network （SSNN）, which is derived from the geometry of urban arterial routes, is used to predict the optimal timing plan corresponding to the traffic conditions in the next time interval. In order to improve the effectiveness of the SSNN, the extended Kalman filter （EKF） is proposed to train the SSNN instead of conventional approaches. Raw traffic data of the Guangzhou Road, Nanjing and the optimal signal timing plan generated by a multi-objective optimization genetic algorithm are applied to test the performance of the proposed model. The results indicate that compared with the SSNN and the BP neural network, the proposed model can closely match the optimal timing plans in futuristic states with higher efficiency.

Approach to obtaining weights of uncertain ordered weighted geometric averaging operator

The ordered weighted geometric averaging（OWGA） operator is extended to accommodate uncertain conditions where all input arguments take the forms of interval numbers. First, a possibility degree formula for the comparison between interval numbers is introduced. It is proved that the introduced formula is equivalent to the existing formulae, and also some desired properties of the possibility degree is presented. Secondly, the uncertain OWGA operator is investigated in which the associated weighting parameters cannot be specified, but value ranges can be obtained and the associated aggregated values of an uncertain OWGA operator are known. A linear objective-programming model is established; by solving this model, the associated weights vector of an uncertain OWGA operator can be determined, and also the estimated aggregated values of the alternatives can be obtained. Then the alternatives can be ranked by the comparison of the estimated aggregated values using the possibility degree formula. Finally, a numerical example is given to show the feasibility and effectiveness of the developed method.

The Empirical Analysis on the Dynamic Effect of Rural-urban Migration on the Consumption Growth of Residents in China——Based on Varying Parameter State-space Model

The research constructed varying parameter state-space model and per- formed estimation on dynamic relationship between urban-rural migration and aggre- gate consumption expenditure on basis of dual economic structure. The results showed that urban consumption growth made the most contribution to aggregate consumption growth, followed by urban-rural migration caused consumption. The role of rural consumption growth kept stable, but consumption caused by population growth was decreasing. Therefore, China consumption growth mainly relies on urban consumption expenditure and urban-rural migration.

基于Bootstrap Averaging的贝叶斯分类算法

针对单词簇上训练朴素贝叶斯文本分类器概率估计偏差较大所导致的分类精度较低问题。在使用概率分布聚类算法得到的单词簇的基础上,根据单词与簇间互信息建立有序单词子序列,采用有放回随机抽样对单词序列构造规模相当的样本集并将估计出的参数的平均值作为训练得到的最终参数对未知文本进行分类。公共文本实验数据集上的实验结果表明,提出的训练方法相对于传统的朴素贝叶斯分类器训练方法能够获得更高的分类精度且过程相对简单。

Stochastic averaging method for estimating first-passage statistics of stochastically excited Duffing-Rayleigh-Mathieu system

The first-passage statistics of Duffing-Rayleigh- Mathieu system under wide-band colored noise excitations is studied by using stochastic averaging method. The motion equation of the original system is transformed into two time homogeneous diffusion Markovian processes of amplitude and phase after stochastic averaging. The diffusion process method for first-passage problem is used and the corresponding backward Kolmogorov equation and Pontryagin equation are constructed and solved to yield the conditional reliability function and mean first-passage time with suitable initial and boundary conditions. The analytical results are confirmed by Monte Carlo simulation.

A modified averaging scheme with application to the secondary Hopf bifurcation of a delayed van der Pol oscillator

In this paper, a modified averaging scheme is presented for a class of time-delayed vibration systems with slow variables. The new scheme is a combination of the averaging techniques proposed by Hale and by Lehman and Weibel, respectively. The averaged equation obtained from the modified scheme is simple enough but it retains the required information for the local nonlinear dynamics around an equilibrium. As an application of the present method, the delay value for which a secondary Hopf bifurcation occurs is successfully located for a delayed van der Pol oscillator.

Generalized ordered weighted averaging operators based methods for MADM in intuitionistic fuzzy set setting

Multiattribute decision making（MADM） problems, in which the weights and ratings of alternatives are expressed with intuitionistic fuzzy（IF） sets, are investigated.Firstly, the relative degrees of membership and the relative degrees of non-membership are formulated as IF sets, the weights and values of alternatives on both qualitative and quantitative attributes may be expressed as IF sets in a unified way.Then a MADM method based on generalized ordered weighted averaging operators is proposed.The proposed method is illustrated with a numerical example.

Research on the Error Averaging Effect in A Rolling Guide Pair

By studying the e ects of geometric precision on kinematic accuracy, an error mapping model has been established, based on the hypothesis that a motion pair and its installation surface are rigid. However, when using this assumption,there is a significant error induced in high-precision computer numerical control(CNC) machine tools as compared with reality. One of the most important reasons for this error is failing to consider the error averaging e ect of motion pair elements. Therefore, this work examines a high-precision horizontal machining center as its research object, and analyzes the error averaging mechanism of a rolling guide pair under a deformation of the rolling elements. The carriage bearing forces caused by guideway straightness errors are obtained by constructing a geometric error model of a single carriage. The relationship between guideway straightness errors and carriage bearing forces is described by a transfer function in the spatial frequency domain, and its characteristics are analyzed. It quantifies the so-called error averaging e ect of the rolling guide system and, on this basis, a static model for four carriages is established to reflect the error averaging e ect of the rolling guide pair on the position and orientation errors of the motion pair. In addition, it is found that the wavelengths and phase di erences of guideway errors a ect this error averaging mechanism, but the amplitude and preload have little influence thereon. The experiment result shows that the kinematic straightness errors in the x-and y-directions were approximately 1/3 to 1/2 of the guideway straightness errors in the corresponding directions. The results can be used to guide the precision design and assembly of machine tools.