Analytical and NumericalMethods to Study the MFPT and SR of a Stochastic Tumor-Immune Model

The Mean First-Passage Time (MFPT) and Stochastic Resonance (SR) of a stochastic tumor-immune model withnoise perturbation are discussed in this paper. Firstly, considering environmental perturbation, Gaussian whitenoise and Gaussian colored noise are introduced into a tumor growth model under immune surveillance. Asfollows, the long-time evolution of the tumor characterized by the Stationary Probability Density (SPD) and MFPTis obtained in theory on the basis of the Approximated Fokker-Planck Equation (AFPE). Herein the recurrenceof the tumor from the extinction state to the tumor-present state is more concerned in this paper. A moreefficient algorithmof Back-Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) is utilized in order to testify the correction of thetheoretical SPDandMFPT.With the existence of aweak signal, the functional relationship between Signal-to-NoiseRatio (SNR), noise intensities and correlation time is also studied. Numerical results show that both multiplicativeGaussian colored noise and additive Gaussian white noise can promote the extinction of the tumors, and themultiplicative Gaussian colored noise can lead to the resonance-like peak on MFPT curves, while the increasingintensity of the additiveGaussian white noise results in theminimum of MFPT. In addition, the correlation timesare negatively correlated with MFPT. As for the SNR, we find the intensities of both the Gaussian white noise andthe Gaussian colored noise, as well as their correlation intensity can induce SR. Especially, SNR is monotonouslyincreased in the case ofGaussian white noisewith the change of the correlation time.At last, the optimal parametersin BPNN structure are analyzed for MFPT from three aspects: the penalty factors, the number of neural networklayers and the number of nodes in each layer.

High Order IMEX Stochastic Galerkin Schemes for Linear Transport Equation with Random Inputs and Diffusive Scalings

In this paper,we consider the high order method for solving the linear transport equations under diffusive scaling and with random inputs.To tackle the randomness in the problem,the stochastic Galerkin method of the generalized polynomial chaos approach has been employed.Besides,the high order implicit-explicit scheme under the micro-macro decomposition framework and the discontinuous Galerkin method have been employed.We provide several numerical experiments to validate the accuracy and the stochastic asymptotic-preserving property.

Stochastic optimal control for norovirus transmission dynamics by contaminated food and water

Norovirus is one of the most common causes of viral gastroenteritis in the world,causing significant morbidity,deaths,and medical costs.In this work,we look at stochastic modelling methodologies for norovirus transmission by water,human to human transmission and food.To begin,the proposed stochastic model is shown to have a single global positive solution.Second,we demonstrate adequate criteria for the existence of a unique ergodic stationary distribution R0 s>1 by developing a Lyapunov function.Thirdly,we find sufficient criteria Rs<1 for disease extinction.Finally,two simulation examples are used to exemplify the analytical results.We employed optimal control theory and examined stochastic control problems to regulate the spread of the disease using some external measures.Additional graphical solutions have been produced to further verify the acquired analytical results.This research could give a solid theoretical foundation for understanding chronic communicable diseases around the world.Our approach also focuses on offering a way of generating Lyapunov functions that can be utilized to investigate the stationary distribution of epidemic models with nonlinear stochastic disturbances.

Stochastic Maximum Principle for Optimal Advertising Models with Delay and Non-Convex Control Spaces

In this paper we study optimal advertising problems that model the introduction of a new product into the market in the presence of carryover effects of the advertisement and with memory effects in the level of goodwill. In particular, we let the dynamics of the product goodwill to depend on the past, and also on past advertising efforts. We treat the problem by means of the stochastic Pontryagin maximum principle, that here is considered for a class of problems where in the state equation either the state or the control depend on the past. Moreover the control acts on the martingale term and the space of controls U can be chosen to be non-convex but now the space of controls U can be chosen to be non-convex. The maximum principle is thus formulated using a first-order adjoint Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs), which can be explicitly computed due to the specific characteristics of the model, and a second-order adjoint relation.

Almost Sure Convergence of Proximal Stochastic Accelerated Gradient Methods

Proximal gradient descent and its accelerated version are resultful methods for solving the sum of smooth and non-smooth problems. When the smooth function can be represented as a sum of multiple functions, the stochastic proximal gradient method performs well. However, research on its accelerated version remains unclear. This paper proposes a proximal stochastic accelerated gradient (PSAG) method to address problems involving a combination of smooth and non-smooth components, where the smooth part corresponds to the average of multiple block sums. Simultaneously, most of convergence analyses hold in expectation. To this end, under some mind conditions, we present an almost sure convergence of unbiased gradient estimation in the non-smooth setting. Moreover, we establish that the minimum of the squared gradient mapping norm arbitrarily converges to zero with probability one.

Stochastic Bifurcation of an SIS Epidemic Model with Treatment and Immigration

In this paper, we investigate an SIS model with treatment and immigration. Firstly, the two-dimensional model is simplified by using the stochastic averaging method. Then, we derive the local stability of the stochastic system by computing the Lyapunov exponent of the linearized system. Further, the global stability of the stochastic model is analyzed based on the singular boundary theory. Moreover, we prove that the model undergoes a Hopf bifurcation and a pitchfork bifurcation. Finally, several numerical examples are provided to illustrate the theoretical results. .

Asymptotic Analysis of a Stochastic Model of Mosquito-Borne Disease with the Use of Insecticides and Bet Nets

Ross’ epidemic model describing the transmission of malaria uses two classes of infection, one for humans and one for mosquitoes. This paper presents a stochastic extension of a deterministic vector-borne epidemic model based only on the class of human infectious. The consistency of the model is established by proving that the stochastic delay differential equation describing the model has a unique positive global solution. The extinction of the disease is studied through the analysis of the stability of the disease-free equilibrium state and the persistence of the model. Finally, we introduce some numerical simulations to illustrate the obtained results.

A modified stochastic model for LS+AR hybrid method and its application in polar motion short-term prediction

Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.

Mixed D-vine copula-based conditional quantile model for stochastic monthly streamflow simulation

Copula functions have been widely used in stochastic simulation and prediction of streamflow.However,existing models are usually limited to single two-dimensional or three-dimensional copulas with the same bivariate block for all months.To address this limitation,this study developed a mixed D-vine copula-based conditional quantile model that can capture temporal correlations.This model can generate streamflow by selecting different historical streamflow variables as the conditions for different months and by exploiting the conditional quantile functions of streamflows in different months with mixed D-vine copulas.The up-to-down sequential method,which couples the maximum weight approach with the Akaike information criteria and the maximum likelihood approach,was used to determine the structures of multivariate Dvine copulas.The developed model was used in a case study to synthesize the monthly streamflow at the Tangnaihai hydrological station,the inflow control station of the Longyangxia Reservoir in the Yellow River Basin.The results showed that the developed model outperformed the commonly used bivariate copula model in terms of the performance in simulating the seasonality and interannual variability of streamflow.This model provides useful information for water-related natural hazard risk assessment and integrated water resources management and utilization.

Combining stochastic density functional theory with deep potential molecular dynamics to study warm dense matter

In traditional finite-temperature Kohn–Sham density functional theory(KSDFT),the partial occupation of a large number of high-energy KS eigenstates restricts the use of first-principles molecular dynamics methods at extremely high temperatures.However,stochastic density functional theory(SDFT)can overcome this limitation.Recently,SDFT and the related mixed stochastic–deterministic density functional theory,based on a plane-wave basis set,have been implemented in the first-principles electronic structure software ABACUS[Q.Liu and M.Chen,Phys.Rev.B 106,125132(2022)].In this study,we combine SDFT with the Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics method to investigate systems with temperatures ranging from a few tens of eV to 1000 eV.Importantly,we train machine-learning-based interatomic models using the SDFT data and employ these deep potential models to simulate large-scale systems with long trajectories.Subsequently,we compute and analyze the structural properties,dynamic properties,and transport coefficients of warm dense matter.

A Reliable Stochastic Numerical Analysis for Typhoid Fever Incorporating With Protection Against Infection

In this paper,a reliable stochastic numerical analysis for typhoid fever incorporating with protection against infection has been considered.We have compared the solutions of stochastic and deterministic typhoid fever model.It has been shown that the stochastic typhoid fever model is more realistic as compared to the deterministic typhoid fever model.The effect of threshold number T*hold in stochastic typhoid fever model.The proposed framework of the stochastic non-standard finite difference scheme(SNSFD)preserves all dynamical properties like positivity,bounded-ness and dynamical consistency defined by Mickens,R.E.The stochastic numerical simulation of the model showed that increase in protection leads to low disease prevalence in a population.

Stochastic seismic inversion and Bayesian facies classification applied to porosity modeling and igneous rock identification

We apply stochastic seismic inversion and Bayesian facies classification for porosity modeling and igneous rock identification in the presalt interval of the Santos Basin. This integration of seismic and well-derived information enhances reservoir characterization. Stochastic inversion and Bayesian classification are powerful tools because they permit addressing the uncertainties in the model. We used the ES-MDA algorithm to achieve the realizations equivalent to the percentiles P10, P50, and P90 of acoustic impedance, a novel method for acoustic inversion in presalt. The facies were divided into five: reservoir 1,reservoir 2, tight carbonates, clayey rocks, and igneous rocks. To deal with the overlaps in acoustic impedance values of facies, we included geological information using a priori probability, indicating that structural highs are reservoir-dominated. To illustrate our approach, we conducted porosity modeling using facies-related rock-physics models for rock-physics inversion in an area with a well drilled in a coquina bank and evaluated the thickness and extension of an igneous intrusion near the carbonate-salt interface. The modeled porosity and the classified seismic facies are in good agreement with the ones observed in the wells. Notably, the coquinas bank presents an improvement in the porosity towards the top. The a priori probability model was crucial for limiting the clayey rocks to the structural lows. In Well B, the hit rate of the igneous rock in the three scenarios is higher than 60%, showing an excellent thickness-prediction capability.

Modeling and Performance Analysis of UAV-Aided Millimeter Wave Cellular Networks with Stochastic Geometry

UAV-aided cellular networks,millimeter wave(mm-wave) communications and multi-antenna techniques are viewed as promising components of the solution for beyond-5G(B5G) and even 6G communications.By leveraging the power of stochastic geometry,this paper aims at providing an effective framework for modeling and analyzing a UAV-aided heterogeneous cellular network,where the terrestrial base stations(TBSs) and the UAV base stations(UBSs) coexist,and the UBSs are provided with mm-wave and multi-antenna techniques.By modeling the TBSs as a PPP and the UBSs as a Matern hard-core point process of type Ⅱ(MPH-Ⅱ),approximated but accurate analytical results for the average rate of the typical user of both tiers are derived through an approximation method based on the mean interference-to-signal ratio(MISR) gain.The influence of some relevant parameters is discussed in detail,and some insights into the network deployment and optimization are revealed.Numerical results show that some trade-offs are worthy of being considered,such as the antenna array size,the altitude of the UAVs and the power control factor of the UBSs.

A Stochastic Model to Assess the Epidemiological Impact of Vaccine Booster Doses on COVID-19 and Viral Hepatitis B Co-Dynamics with Real Data

A patient co-infected with COVID-19 and viral hepatitis B can be atmore risk of severe complications than the one infected with a single infection.This study develops a comprehensive stochastic model to assess the epidemiological impact of vaccine booster doses on the co-dynamics of viral hepatitis B and COVID-19.The model is fitted to real COVID-19 data from Pakistan.The proposed model incorporates logistic growth and saturated incidence functions.Rigorous analyses using the tools of stochastic calculus,are performed to study appropriate conditions for the existence of unique global solutions,stationary distribution in the sense of ergodicity and disease extinction.The stochastic threshold estimated from the data fitting is given by:R_(0)^(S)=3.0651.Numerical assessments are implemented to illustrate the impact of double-dose vaccination and saturated incidence functions on the dynamics of both diseases.The effects of stochastic white noise intensities are also highlighted.

An underdamped and delayed tri-stable model-based stochastic resonance

Stochastic resonance(SR) is investigated in an underdamped tri-stable potential system driven by Gaussian colored noise and a periodic excitation, where both displacement and velocity time-delayed states feedback are considered. It is challenging to study SR in a second-order delayed multi-stable system analytically. In this paper, the improved energy envelope stochastic average method is developed to derive the analytical expressions of stationary probability density(SPD)and spectral amplification. The effects of noise intensity, damping coefficient, and time delay on SR are analyzed. The results show that the shapes of joint SPD can be adjusted to the desired structure by choosing the time delay and feedback gains. For fixed time delay, the SR peak is increased for negative displacement or velocity feedback gain. Meanwhile, the SR peak is decreased while the optimal noise intensity increases with increasing correlation time of noise. The Monte Carlo simulations(MCS) confirm the effectiveness of the theoretical results.

A Mean-Field Game for a Forward-Backward Stochastic System With Partial Observation and Common Noise

This paper considers a linear-quadratic(LQ) meanfield game governed by a forward-backward stochastic system with partial observation and common noise,where a coupling structure enters state equations,cost functionals and observation equations.Firstly,to reduce the complexity of solving the meanfield game,a limiting control problem is introduced.By virtue of the decomposition approach,an admissible control set is proposed.Applying a filter technique and dimensional-expansion technique,a decentralized control strategy and a consistency condition system are derived,and the related solvability is also addressed.Secondly,we discuss an approximate Nash equilibrium property of the decentralized control strategy.Finally,we work out a financial problem with some numerical simulations.

A Non-Intrusive Stochastic Phase-Field for Fatigue Fracture in Brittle Materials with Uncertainty in Geometry and Material Properties

Understanding the probabilistic nature of brittle materials due to inherent dispersions in their mechanical properties is important to assess their reliability and safety for sensitive engineering applications.This is all the more important when elements composed of brittle materials are exposed to dynamic environments,resulting in catastrophic fatigue failures.The authors propose the application of a non-intrusive polynomial chaos expansion method for probabilistic studies on brittle materials undergoing fatigue fracture when geometrical parameters and material properties are random independent variables.Understanding the probabilistic nature of fatigue fracture in brittle materials is crucial for ensuring the reliability and safety of engineering structures subjected to cyclic loading.Crack growth is modelled using a phase-field approach within a finite element framework.For modelling fatigue,fracture resistance is progressively degraded by modifying the regularised free energy functional using a fatigue degradation function.Number of cycles to failure is treated as the dependent variable of interest and is estimated within acceptable limits due to the randomness in independent properties.Multiple 2D benchmark problems are solved to demonstrate the ability of this approach to predict the dependent variable responses with significantly fewer simulations than the Monte Carlo method.This proposed approach can accurately predict results typically obtained through 105 or more runs in Monte Carlo simulations with a reduction of up to three orders of magnitude in required runs.The independent random variables’sensitivity to the system response is determined using Sobol’indices.The proposed approach has low computational overhead and can be useful for computationally intensive problems requiring rapid decision-making in sensitive applications like aerospace,nuclear and biomedical engineering.The technique does not require reformulating existing finite element code and can perform the stochastic study by direct pre/post-processing.

Computing large deviation prefactors of stochastic dynamical systems based on machine learning

We present a large deviation theory that characterizes the exponential estimate for rare events in stochastic dynamical systems in the limit of weak noise.We aim to consider a next-to-leading-order approximation for more accurate calculation of the mean exit time by computing large deviation prefactors with the aid of machine learning.More specifically,we design a neural network framework to compute quasipotential,most probable paths and prefactors based on the orthogonal decomposition of a vector field.We corroborate the higher effectiveness and accuracy of our algorithm with two toy models.Numerical experiments demonstrate its powerful functionality in exploring the internal mechanism of rare events triggered by weak random fluctuations.

Distributed Fault Estimation for Nonlinear Systems With Sensor Saturation and Deception Attacks Using Stochastic Communication Protocols

This paper is aimed at the distributed fault estimation issue associated with the potential loss of actuator efficiency for a type of discrete-time nonlinear systems with sensor saturation.For the distributed estimation structure under consideration,an estimation center is not necessary,and the estimator derives its information from itself and neighboring nodes,which fuses the state vector and the measurement vector.In an effort to cut down data conflicts in communication networks,the stochastic communication protocol(SCP)is employed so that the output signals from sensors can be selected.Additionally,a recursive security estimator scheme is created since attackers randomly inject malicious signals into the selected data.On this basis,sufficient conditions for a fault estimator with less conservatism are presented which ensure an upper bound of the estimation error covariance and the mean-square exponential boundedness of the estimating error.Finally,a numerical example is used to show the reliability and effectiveness of the considered distributed estimation algorithm.

NADARAYA-WATSON ESTIMATORS FOR REFLECTED STOCHASTIC PROCESSES

We study the Nadaraya-Watson estimators for the drift function of two-sided reflected stochastic differential equations.The estimates,based on either the continuously observed process or the discretely observed process,are considered.Under certain conditions,we prove the strong consistency and the asymptotic normality of the two estimators.Our method is also suitable for one-sided reflected stochastic differential equations.Simulation results demonstrate that the performance of our estimator is superior to that of the estimator proposed by Cholaquidis et al.(Stat Sin,2021,31:29-51).Several real data sets of the currency exchange rate are used to illustrate our proposed methodology.