Analysis on the spatial pattern and evolution of China's petroleum trade under the dual effect of international oil price and “Belt and Road” Framework

“Belt and Road” is the important origin of oil import in China. Based on social network analysis and stochastic frontier gravity model, this paper studied the characteristic evolution and influence factor of oil import network between China and “Belt and Road” countries. Then by constructing a stochastic frontier gravity model including the crude oil future price and oil importing price, it found that the international crude oil future price, the oil importing price, the political situation, the trade agreements have the effects on the China's oil import from “Belt and Road” region. It provided suggestions for improving the spatial pattern of China's petroleum trade.

Study on the Potential of China’s Fruit and Vegetable Products Export to the RCEP Partners

China is one of the world’s major exporters of fruit and vegetable products,and the expansion of fruit and vegetable exports is important for increasing agricultural income.Based on time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model and trade inefficiency model,this paper empirically analyzes the influencing factors and trade efficiency of China’s fruit and vegetable products export to RCEP partners from 2001 to 2019.The results show that China’s GDP per capita,the population of importing countries,and common language conditions have positive effects on China’s fruit and vegetable products export to RCEP partners.GDP per capita of importing countries,the population of China,and geographical distance between trading parties hinder trade in fruit and vegetable products.The presence of trade inefficiencies constrains China’s fruit and vegetable products export to RCEP partners,with liner shipping connectivity and trade freedom having a positive relationship with export efficiency of fruit and vegetable products.Variable trade costs and fixed trade costs have a negative relationship with export efficiency of fruit and vegetable products,which hinder trade in fruit and vegetable products,while financial freedom and free trade agreements have no significant impact on export efficiency of fruit and vegetable products.

Digital Economy Development, International Trade Efficiency and Trade Uncertainty

From the perspective of international trade efficiency and trade uncertainty,this paper analyzes the impact of digital economy development(DED)in importing countries on China’s exports.Theoretically,importing countries’DED can reduce the trade cost of China’s exports,and then improve the export efficiency of China.On the other hand,the intensified market competition in importing countries resulting from DED and the changes in data transmission policies may also increase the uncertainty of China’s export trade.This paper uses the networked readiness index(NRI)to measure the DED level of different countries,and the heterogeneous stochastic frontier gravity(HSFG)model to empirically analyze the data of China’s exports to 115 countries and regions in the period of 2007−2015.The results show that the DED in importing countries can significantly reduce the loss of China’s export efficiency and improve the efficiency of China’s export trade,and this effect is more obvious for China’s exports to low-and middle-income countries.However,importing countries’DED may also increase the uncertainty of China’s export trade.The development of global digital economy brings new opportunities to international trade and new challenges to China’s export.This paper provides a basis for China to strengthen its own DED,deepen international exchanges and cooperation,guide enterprises’transformation and upgrading,and improve their competitiveness and anti-risk capability.