Development potential of the Northeast Passage based on a multinomial-logit-based stochastic user equilibrium model

We developed a multinomial-logit-based stochastic user equilibrium(MNL SUE)model incorporating time value of cargo to investigate future proportions of cargo flow through the Northeast Passage(NEP)and the Suez Canal Route between representative ports.We studied navigation during the ice-free and ice-covered seasons using sea ice projections for 2070 based on 1991–2021 NEP ice data.Sailing distance and time between selected ports are lower via the NEP than the Suez Canal Route.Under the scenario of year-round operation of the NEP,the proportion of cargo flow through the NEP is estimated to be 68.5%,which represents considerable commercial potential.Proportions are higher for the ice-free season and for ports at high latitudes.We also assessed flow under different scenarios.Under the scenario of fuel price increase,proportion of flow through the NEP in the ice-covered season is expected to increase.If time value is ignored,flow through the NEP is expected to increase all year round.If shippers become more cost-conscious,flow through the NEP is also expected to increase.

Reliability analysis of stochastic park-and-ride network

Park-and-ride （P＆R） facilities can alleviate the traffic burden in central urban areas by enabling car drivers to park at the perimeter of congested areas and continue their journeys with public transportation （e.g., metro and bus rapid transit）. Whether a P＆R scheme is successful depends on its attractiveness to car users. This paper presents anevaluation method for the reliability analysis of P＆R mode. Two indices, P＆R reliability and mode reliability, are in- troduced to represent the reliabilities of a transfer point and an entire trip, respectively. Then, a systematic reliability analysis is conducted for a stochastic P＆R network, where travelers can complete their journeys via two options： auto mode or P＆R mode. A variational inequality （VI） model is proposed and solved by a heuristic solution algorithm. Nu- merical results show that the P＆R facility reliability is significantly influenced by the capacity of parking facilities, the dispatching frequency of the connecting metro, and the metro fare. In addition, a higher level of total demand in the network has significant negative impacts on P＆R mode＇s attractiveness compared to auto mode.

Stochastic Route Choice Equilibrium Assignment for Travelers with Heterogeneous Regret Aversions

Most route choice models assume that people are completely rational.Recently,regret theory has attracted researchers'attentions because of its power to depict real travel behavior.This paper proposes a multiclass stochastic user equilibrium assignment model by using regret theory.All users are differentiated by their own regret aversion.The route travel disutility for users of each class is defined as a linear combination of the travel time and anticipated regret.The proposed model is formulated as a variational inequality problem and solved by using the self-regulated averaging method.The numerical results show that users'regret aversion indeed influences their route choice behavior and that users with high regret aversion are more inclined to change route choice when the traffic congestion degree varies.