The effect of Stokes drift production(SDP),which includes Coriolis-Stokes forcing,Langmuir circulation,and Craik-Lei-bovich vortexes,on the upper ocean during typhoon passage in the Bohai Sea(BS),China,is investigated...The effect of Stokes drift production(SDP),which includes Coriolis-Stokes forcing,Langmuir circulation,and Craik-Lei-bovich vortexes,on the upper ocean during typhoon passage in the Bohai Sea(BS),China,is investigated by using a coupled wave-current model.The role of SDP in turbulent mixing and the further dynamics during the entire typhoon period are comprehensively stud-ied.Experimental results show that SDP greatly increases turbulent mixing at all depths under typhoon conditions by up to seven times that under normal weather conditions.SDP generally strengthens sea surface cooling by more than 0.4℃,with the maximum reduction in sea surface temperature(SST)at the during-typhoon stage exceeding 2℃,which is approximately seven times larger than that under normal weather conditions.The SDP-induced decrease in current speed can exceed 0.2ms^(-1),and the change in current direction is generally opposite the wind direction.These results suggest that Stokes drift depresses the effect of strong winds on currents by intensifying turbulent mixing.Mixed layer depth(MLD)is distinctly increased by O(1)during typhoons due to SDP and can deepen by more than 5m.In addition,the continuous effects of SDP on SST,current,and MLD at the after-typhoon stage indi-cate a hysteretic response between SDP and typhoon actions.展开更多
Stokes drift is the main source of vertical vorticity in the ocean mixed layer. In the ways of Coriolis - Stokes forcing and Langmuir circulations, Stokes drift can substantially affect the whole mixed layer. A modifi...Stokes drift is the main source of vertical vorticity in the ocean mixed layer. In the ways of Coriolis - Stokes forcing and Langmuir circulations, Stokes drift can substantially affect the whole mixed layer. A modified Mellor-Yamada 2. 5 level turbulence closure model is used to parameterize its effect on upper ocean mixing conventionally. Results show that comparing surface heating with wave breaking, Stokes drift plays the most important role in the entire ocean mixed layer, especially in the subsurface layer. As expected, Stokes drift elevates both the dissipation rate and the turbulence energy in the upper ocean mixing. Also, ilffluence of the surface heating, wave breaking and wind speed on Stokes drift is investigated respectively. Research shows that it is significant and important to assessing the Stokes drift into ocean mixed layer studying. The laboratory observations are supporting numerical experiments quantitatively.展开更多
Spilled oil floats and travels across the water’s surface under the influence of wind,currents,and wave action.Wave-induced Stokes drift is an important physical process that can affect surface water particles but th...Spilled oil floats and travels across the water’s surface under the influence of wind,currents,and wave action.Wave-induced Stokes drift is an important physical process that can affect surface water particles but that is currently absent from oil spill analyses.In this study,two methods are applied to determine the velocity of Stokes drift,the first calculates velocity from the wind-related formula based upon a one-dimensional frequency spectrum,while the second determines velocity directly from the wave model that was based on a twodimensional spectrum.The experimental results of numerous models indicated that:(1)oil simulations that include the influence of Stokes drift are more accurate than that those do not;(2)for medium and long-term simulations longer than two days or more,Stokes drift is a significant factor that should not be ignored,and its magnitude can reach about 2%of the wind speed;(3)the velocity of Stokes drift is related to the wind but is not linear.Therefore,Stokes drift cannot simply be replaced or substituted by simply increasing the wind drift factor,which can cause errors in oil spill projections;(4)the Stokes drift velocity obtained from the two-dimensional wave spectrum makes the oil spill simulation more accurate.展开更多
The impact of Stokes drift on the mixed layer temperature variation was estimated by taking into account an advective heat transport term induced by the Stokes drift in the equation of mixed layer temperature and usin...The impact of Stokes drift on the mixed layer temperature variation was estimated by taking into account an advective heat transport term induced by the Stokes drift in the equation of mixed layer temperature and using the oceanic and wave parameters from a global ocean circulation model (HYCOM) and a wave model (Wave Watch III). The dimensional analysis and quantitative estimation method were conducted to assess the importance of the effect induced by the Stokes drift and to analyze its spatial distribution and seasonal variation characteristics. Results show that the contribution of the Stokes drift to the mixed layer temperature variation at mid-to-high latitudes is comparable with that of the mean current, and a substantial part of mixed layer temperature change is induced by taking the Stokes drift effect into account. Although the advection heat transport induced by the Stokes drift is not the leading term for the mixed layer temperature equation, it cannot be neglected and even becomes critical in some regions for the simulation of the upperocean temperature.展开更多
Contaminants that are floating on the surface of the ocean are subjected to the action of random waves.In the literature,it has been asserted by researchers that the random wave action will lead to a dispersion mechan...Contaminants that are floating on the surface of the ocean are subjected to the action of random waves.In the literature,it has been asserted by researchers that the random wave action will lead to a dispersion mechanism through the induced Stokes drift,and that this dispersion mechanism may have the same order of significance comparable with the others means due to tidal currents and wind.It is investigated whether or not surface floating substances will disperse in the random wave environment due to the induced Stokes drift.An analytical derivation is first performed to obtain the drift velocity under the random waves.From the analysis,it is shown that the drift velocity is a time-independent value that does not possess any fluctuation given a specific wave energy spectrum.Thus,the random wave drift by itself should not have a dispersive effect on the surface floating substances.Experiments were then conducted with small floating objects subjected to P-M spectral waves in a laboratory wave flume,and the experimental results reinforced the conclusion drawn.展开更多
This study explores the influence of Stokes drift and the thermal effects on the upper ocean bias which occurs in the summer with overestimated sea surface temperature(SST)and shallower mixed layer depth(MLD)using Mel...This study explores the influence of Stokes drift and the thermal effects on the upper ocean bias which occurs in the summer with overestimated sea surface temperature(SST)and shallower mixed layer depth(MLD)using Mellor-Yamada turbulence closure scheme.The upper ocean thermal structures through Princeton ocean model are examined by experiments in the cases of idealized forcing and real observational situation.The results suggest that Stokes drift can generally enhance turbulence kinetic energy and deepen MLD either in summer or in winter.This effect will improve the simulation results in summer,but it will lead to much deeper MLD in winter compared to observational data.It is found that MLD can be correctly simulated by combining Stokes drift and the thermal effects of the cool skin layer and diurnal warm layer on the upper mixing layer.In the case of high shortwave radiation and weak wind speed,which usually occurs in summer,the heat absorbed from sun is blocked in the warm layer and prevented from being transferred downwards.As a result,the thermal effects in summer nearly has no influence on dynamic effect of Stokes drift that leads to deepening MLD.However,when the stratification is weak in winter,the thermal effects will counteract the dynamic effect of Stokes drift through enhancing the strength of stratification and suppress mixing impact.Therefore,the dynamic and thermal effects should be considered simultaneously in order to correctly simulate upper ocean thermal structures in both summer and winter.展开更多
A new three-dimensional numerical model is derived through a wave average on the primitive N-S equations, in which both the"Coriolis-Stokes forcing" and the"Stokes-Vortex force" are considered. Three ideal experim...A new three-dimensional numerical model is derived through a wave average on the primitive N-S equations, in which both the"Coriolis-Stokes forcing" and the"Stokes-Vortex force" are considered. Three ideal experiments are run using the new model applied to the Princeton ocean model (POM). Numerical results show that surface waves play an important role on the mixing of the upper ocean. The mixed layer is enhanced when wave effect is considered in conjunction with small Langmuir numbers. Both surface wave breaking and Stokes production can strengthen the turbulent mixing near the surface. However, the influence of wave breaking is limited to a thin layer, but Stokes drift can affect the whole mixed layer. Furthermore, the vertical mixing coefficients clearly rise in the mixed layer, and the upper ocean mixed layer is deepened especially in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current when the model is applied to global simulations. It indicates that the surface gravity waves are indispensable in enhancing the mixing in the upper ocean, and should be accounted for in ocean general circulation models.展开更多
By incorporating the wave-induced Coriolis-Stokes forcing into the classical Ekman layer,the wave-modifi ed ocean surface currents in the northwestern Pacifi c Ocean were estimated.Thus,the ocean surface currents are ...By incorporating the wave-induced Coriolis-Stokes forcing into the classical Ekman layer,the wave-modifi ed ocean surface currents in the northwestern Pacifi c Ocean were estimated.Thus,the ocean surface currents are the combination of classical Ekman current from the cross-calibrated multi-platform(CCMP)wind speed,geostrophic current from the mean absolute dynamic topography(MADT),and wave-induced current based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)Interim Re-Analysis(ERA-Interim)surface wave datasets.Weight functions are introduced in the Ekman current formulation as well.Comparisons with in-situ data from Lagrangian drifters in the study area and Kuroshio Extension Observatory(KEO)observations at 32.3°N,144.6°E,and 15-m depth indicate that wave-modifi ed ocean surface currents provide accurate time means of zonal and meridional currents in the northwestern Pacifi c Ocean.Result shows that the wave-modifi ed currents are quite consistent with the Lagrangian drifter observations for the period 1993-2017 in the deep ocean.The correlation(root mean square error,RMSE)is 0.96(1.45 cm/s)for the zonal component and 0.90(1.07 cm/s)for the meridional component.However,wave-modifi ed currents underestimate the Lagrangian drifter velocity in strong current and some off shore regions,especially in the regions along the Japan coast and the southeastern Mindanao.What’s more,the wave-modifi ed currents overestimate the pure Eulerian KEO current which does not consider the impact of waves,and the zonal(meridional)correlation and RMSE are 0.95(0.90)and 11.25 cm/s(12.05 cm/s)respectively.These comparisons demonstrate that our wave-modifi ed ocean surface currents have high precision and can describe the real-world ocean in the northwestern Pacifi c Ocean accurately and intuitively,which can provide important routes to calculate ocean surface currents on large spatial scales.展开更多
Nanosecond-pulsed dielectric barrier discharge actuators with powered electrodes of different exposures were investigated numerically by using a newly proposed plasma kinetic model. The governing equations include the...Nanosecond-pulsed dielectric barrier discharge actuators with powered electrodes of different exposures were investigated numerically by using a newly proposed plasma kinetic model. The governing equations include the coupled continuity plasma discharge equation, drift-diffusion equation, electron energy equation, Poisson's equation, and the Navier–Stokes equations.Powered electrodes of three different exposures were simulated to understand the effect of surface exposure on plasma discharge and surrounding flow field. Our study showed that the fully exposed powered electrode resulted in earlier reduced electric field breakdown and more intensive discharge characteristics than partially exposed and rounded-exposed ones. Our study also showed that the reduced electric field and heat release concentrated near the right upper tip of the powered electrode. The fully exposed electrode also led to stronger shock wave, higher heating temperature, and larger heated area.展开更多
Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 disappeared on 8 March 2014, while flying from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. A flaperon from the flight was found on Reunion Island in July 2015. Two more confirmed pieces of debris were fou...Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 disappeared on 8 March 2014, while flying from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. A flaperon from the flight was found on Reunion Island in July 2015. Two more confirmed pieces of debris were found in Mauritius and Tanzania, and 19 unconfirmed items were found off Mozambique, South Africa, and Madagascar. Drift buoys originating from the designated underwater search area arrived in Reunion Island, Mauritius, and Tanzania. Some of these buoys took a similarly long time as did real debris to reach these destinations, following a heading northeast and then west. For the present study, a maritime object drift prediction model was developed. "High resolution surface currents, Stokes drift, and winds" were processed, and a series of model experiments were constructed. The predicted trajectories of the modeled objects were similar to the observed trajectories of the drift buoys. Many modeled objects drifted northward then westward, ending up in Reunion Island, Mauritius, and Tanzania with probabilities of 5%0, 5%0, and 19%o, respectively. At the end of the simulation, most objects were located near 10~S in the western Indian Ocean. There were significant differences between experiments with different leeway factors, possibly because of the influence of southeast trade winds. The north part of the underwater search area is most likely to be the crash site, because the predicted trajectories of objects originating here are consistent with the many pieces of debris found along the east coast of Africa and the absence of such findings on the west coast of Australia.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42176020)the National Key Research and Development Program(No.2022 YFC3105002).
文摘The effect of Stokes drift production(SDP),which includes Coriolis-Stokes forcing,Langmuir circulation,and Craik-Lei-bovich vortexes,on the upper ocean during typhoon passage in the Bohai Sea(BS),China,is investigated by using a coupled wave-current model.The role of SDP in turbulent mixing and the further dynamics during the entire typhoon period are comprehensively stud-ied.Experimental results show that SDP greatly increases turbulent mixing at all depths under typhoon conditions by up to seven times that under normal weather conditions.SDP generally strengthens sea surface cooling by more than 0.4℃,with the maximum reduction in sea surface temperature(SST)at the during-typhoon stage exceeding 2℃,which is approximately seven times larger than that under normal weather conditions.The SDP-induced decrease in current speed can exceed 0.2ms^(-1),and the change in current direction is generally opposite the wind direction.These results suggest that Stokes drift depresses the effect of strong winds on currents by intensifying turbulent mixing.Mixed layer depth(MLD)is distinctly increased by O(1)during typhoons due to SDP and can deepen by more than 5m.In addition,the continuous effects of SDP on SST,current,and MLD at the after-typhoon stage indi-cate a hysteretic response between SDP and typhoon actions.
基金The National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars of China under contract No40425015the Knowledge Innovation Programsof the Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract No kzcx2 -yw-201
文摘Stokes drift is the main source of vertical vorticity in the ocean mixed layer. In the ways of Coriolis - Stokes forcing and Langmuir circulations, Stokes drift can substantially affect the whole mixed layer. A modified Mellor-Yamada 2. 5 level turbulence closure model is used to parameterize its effect on upper ocean mixing conventionally. Results show that comparing surface heating with wave breaking, Stokes drift plays the most important role in the entire ocean mixed layer, especially in the subsurface layer. As expected, Stokes drift elevates both the dissipation rate and the turbulence energy in the upper ocean mixing. Also, ilffluence of the surface heating, wave breaking and wind speed on Stokes drift is investigated respectively. Research shows that it is significant and important to assessing the Stokes drift into ocean mixed layer studying. The laboratory observations are supporting numerical experiments quantitatively.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41976018 and 42006021the Guangdong Province Key Area Research and Development Program under contract No.2020B1111020003+1 种基金the Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Survey Technology and Application Open Research Program under contract No.MESTA-2020-B012the Guangdong Key Laboratory of Ocean Remote Sensing Open Research Program“Based on muti-source analysis and remote sensing retrieval to study Sargassum bloom trend prediction in the East China Sea and Yellow Sea”under contract No.2017B030301005-LORS2011。
文摘Spilled oil floats and travels across the water’s surface under the influence of wind,currents,and wave action.Wave-induced Stokes drift is an important physical process that can affect surface water particles but that is currently absent from oil spill analyses.In this study,two methods are applied to determine the velocity of Stokes drift,the first calculates velocity from the wind-related formula based upon a one-dimensional frequency spectrum,while the second determines velocity directly from the wave model that was based on a twodimensional spectrum.The experimental results of numerous models indicated that:(1)oil simulations that include the influence of Stokes drift are more accurate than that those do not;(2)for medium and long-term simulations longer than two days or more,Stokes drift is a significant factor that should not be ignored,and its magnitude can reach about 2%of the wind speed;(3)the velocity of Stokes drift is related to the wind but is not linear.Therefore,Stokes drift cannot simply be replaced or substituted by simply increasing the wind drift factor,which can cause errors in oil spill projections;(4)the Stokes drift velocity obtained from the two-dimensional wave spectrum makes the oil spill simulation more accurate.
基金The National Basic Research Program of China under contract No.2013CB430304the National High-Tech R&D Program of China under contract No.2013AA09A505+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation and Science and Technology Support Key Project Plan of China under contract No.2011BAC03B02the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41376013,41376015,41306006 and 41206178the open Fundation of the key layboratory of Digital Ocean under contract No.KLDO 201406
文摘The impact of Stokes drift on the mixed layer temperature variation was estimated by taking into account an advective heat transport term induced by the Stokes drift in the equation of mixed layer temperature and using the oceanic and wave parameters from a global ocean circulation model (HYCOM) and a wave model (Wave Watch III). The dimensional analysis and quantitative estimation method were conducted to assess the importance of the effect induced by the Stokes drift and to analyze its spatial distribution and seasonal variation characteristics. Results show that the contribution of the Stokes drift to the mixed layer temperature variation at mid-to-high latitudes is comparable with that of the mean current, and a substantial part of mixed layer temperature change is induced by taking the Stokes drift effect into account. Although the advection heat transport induced by the Stokes drift is not the leading term for the mixed layer temperature equation, it cannot be neglected and even becomes critical in some regions for the simulation of the upperocean temperature.
基金The State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering Research Foundation of China under contract No.2015491311
文摘Contaminants that are floating on the surface of the ocean are subjected to the action of random waves.In the literature,it has been asserted by researchers that the random wave action will lead to a dispersion mechanism through the induced Stokes drift,and that this dispersion mechanism may have the same order of significance comparable with the others means due to tidal currents and wind.It is investigated whether or not surface floating substances will disperse in the random wave environment due to the induced Stokes drift.An analytical derivation is first performed to obtain the drift velocity under the random waves.From the analysis,it is shown that the drift velocity is a time-independent value that does not possess any fluctuation given a specific wave energy spectrum.Thus,the random wave drift by itself should not have a dispersive effect on the surface floating substances.Experiments were then conducted with small floating objects subjected to P-M spectral waves in a laboratory wave flume,and the experimental results reinforced the conclusion drawn.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41876010 and 41276015the Public Science and Technology Research Funds Projects of Ocean under contrct No.201505007+1 种基金the Joint Project for the National Oceanographic Center by the NSFC and Shandong Government under contract No.U1406402the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41806028。
文摘This study explores the influence of Stokes drift and the thermal effects on the upper ocean bias which occurs in the summer with overestimated sea surface temperature(SST)and shallower mixed layer depth(MLD)using Mellor-Yamada turbulence closure scheme.The upper ocean thermal structures through Princeton ocean model are examined by experiments in the cases of idealized forcing and real observational situation.The results suggest that Stokes drift can generally enhance turbulence kinetic energy and deepen MLD either in summer or in winter.This effect will improve the simulation results in summer,but it will lead to much deeper MLD in winter compared to observational data.It is found that MLD can be correctly simulated by combining Stokes drift and the thermal effects of the cool skin layer and diurnal warm layer on the upper mixing layer.In the case of high shortwave radiation and weak wind speed,which usually occurs in summer,the heat absorbed from sun is blocked in the warm layer and prevented from being transferred downwards.As a result,the thermal effects in summer nearly has no influence on dynamic effect of Stokes drift that leads to deepening MLD.However,when the stratification is weak in winter,the thermal effects will counteract the dynamic effect of Stokes drift through enhancing the strength of stratification and suppress mixing impact.Therefore,the dynamic and thermal effects should be considered simultaneously in order to correctly simulate upper ocean thermal structures in both summer and winter.
基金The Open Fund of the Shandong Province Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering,Ocean University of China(Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities)under contract No.201362045the Open Fund of the Key Laboratory of Digital Ocean,State Oceanic Administration of China under contract No.KLDO201406
文摘A new three-dimensional numerical model is derived through a wave average on the primitive N-S equations, in which both the"Coriolis-Stokes forcing" and the"Stokes-Vortex force" are considered. Three ideal experiments are run using the new model applied to the Princeton ocean model (POM). Numerical results show that surface waves play an important role on the mixing of the upper ocean. The mixed layer is enhanced when wave effect is considered in conjunction with small Langmuir numbers. Both surface wave breaking and Stokes production can strengthen the turbulent mixing near the surface. However, the influence of wave breaking is limited to a thin layer, but Stokes drift can affect the whole mixed layer. Furthermore, the vertical mixing coefficients clearly rise in the mixed layer, and the upper ocean mixed layer is deepened especially in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current when the model is applied to global simulations. It indicates that the surface gravity waves are indispensable in enhancing the mixing in the upper ocean, and should be accounted for in ocean general circulation models.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42106034)the Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling,Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao)(No.2019A02)+1 种基金the Basic Scientifi c Fund for National Public Research Institutes of China(No.2020Q05)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41706034,41706225,41906003)。
文摘By incorporating the wave-induced Coriolis-Stokes forcing into the classical Ekman layer,the wave-modifi ed ocean surface currents in the northwestern Pacifi c Ocean were estimated.Thus,the ocean surface currents are the combination of classical Ekman current from the cross-calibrated multi-platform(CCMP)wind speed,geostrophic current from the mean absolute dynamic topography(MADT),and wave-induced current based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)Interim Re-Analysis(ERA-Interim)surface wave datasets.Weight functions are introduced in the Ekman current formulation as well.Comparisons with in-situ data from Lagrangian drifters in the study area and Kuroshio Extension Observatory(KEO)observations at 32.3°N,144.6°E,and 15-m depth indicate that wave-modifi ed ocean surface currents provide accurate time means of zonal and meridional currents in the northwestern Pacifi c Ocean.Result shows that the wave-modifi ed currents are quite consistent with the Lagrangian drifter observations for the period 1993-2017 in the deep ocean.The correlation(root mean square error,RMSE)is 0.96(1.45 cm/s)for the zonal component and 0.90(1.07 cm/s)for the meridional component.However,wave-modifi ed currents underestimate the Lagrangian drifter velocity in strong current and some off shore regions,especially in the regions along the Japan coast and the southeastern Mindanao.What’s more,the wave-modifi ed currents overestimate the pure Eulerian KEO current which does not consider the impact of waves,and the zonal(meridional)correlation and RMSE are 0.95(0.90)and 11.25 cm/s(12.05 cm/s)respectively.These comparisons demonstrate that our wave-modifi ed ocean surface currents have high precision and can describe the real-world ocean in the northwestern Pacifi c Ocean accurately and intuitively,which can provide important routes to calculate ocean surface currents on large spatial scales.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(11472221)funded by the 111 project of China
文摘Nanosecond-pulsed dielectric barrier discharge actuators with powered electrodes of different exposures were investigated numerically by using a newly proposed plasma kinetic model. The governing equations include the coupled continuity plasma discharge equation, drift-diffusion equation, electron energy equation, Poisson's equation, and the Navier–Stokes equations.Powered electrodes of three different exposures were simulated to understand the effect of surface exposure on plasma discharge and surrounding flow field. Our study showed that the fully exposed powered electrode resulted in earlier reduced electric field breakdown and more intensive discharge characteristics than partially exposed and rounded-exposed ones. Our study also showed that the reduced electric field and heat release concentrated near the right upper tip of the powered electrode. The fully exposed electrode also led to stronger shock wave, higher heating temperature, and larger heated area.
基金Acknowledgements This work is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2017YFC1404700) the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41430963 and 41606005) the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. 201713023). Surface drifter data were provided by the Global Drifter Program. Surface currents data were from Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model developed by Florida State University (HYCOM). Wave data were provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Wind data were provided by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).
文摘Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 disappeared on 8 March 2014, while flying from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. A flaperon from the flight was found on Reunion Island in July 2015. Two more confirmed pieces of debris were found in Mauritius and Tanzania, and 19 unconfirmed items were found off Mozambique, South Africa, and Madagascar. Drift buoys originating from the designated underwater search area arrived in Reunion Island, Mauritius, and Tanzania. Some of these buoys took a similarly long time as did real debris to reach these destinations, following a heading northeast and then west. For the present study, a maritime object drift prediction model was developed. "High resolution surface currents, Stokes drift, and winds" were processed, and a series of model experiments were constructed. The predicted trajectories of the modeled objects were similar to the observed trajectories of the drift buoys. Many modeled objects drifted northward then westward, ending up in Reunion Island, Mauritius, and Tanzania with probabilities of 5%0, 5%0, and 19%o, respectively. At the end of the simulation, most objects were located near 10~S in the western Indian Ocean. There were significant differences between experiments with different leeway factors, possibly because of the influence of southeast trade winds. The north part of the underwater search area is most likely to be the crash site, because the predicted trajectories of objects originating here are consistent with the many pieces of debris found along the east coast of Africa and the absence of such findings on the west coast of Australia.