Stress triggering effect on the 2022 Honghe M_(S)5.0 earthquake with historical strong earthquakes

The 2022 Honghe M_(S)5.0 seismic event is intriguing due to its occurrence in the south of the Red River Fault,an area historically lacking seismic activities greater than M_(S)5.0.To elucidate the seismogenic mechanism and scrutinize stress-triggered interactions,we calculated co-seismic and post-seismic Coulomb stress alterations induced by nine historical seismic events(M≥6.0).The analysis reveals that these substantial seismic events provoked co-seismic stress augmentations of 1.409 bar and postseismic stress increments of 0.159 bar.Noteworthy seismic events,such as the 1833 Songming,1877Shiping,1913 Eshan,and 1970 Tonghai earthquakes,catalyzed the occurrence of the Honghe earthquake.Areas of heightened future seismic risk include the southern region of the Red River Fault and the eastern segments of the Shiping-Jianshui and Qujiang faults.Additionally,we assessed the correlation between the spatial distribution of aftershocks and the Coulomb stress shift triggered by the mainshock,taking into account the influence of calculation parameter settings.

Research on seismic stress triggering

This paper briefly reviews basic theory of seismic stress triggering. Recent development on seismic stress triggering has been reviewed in the views of seismic static and dynamic stress triggering, application of viscoelastic model in seismic stress triggering, the relation between earthquake triggering and volcanic eruption or explosion, other explanation of earthquake triggering, etc. And some suggestions for further study on seismic stress triggering in near future are given.

Application of observed strain steps to the study of remote earthquake stress triggering

A study of the Kunlunshan earthquake of MS = 8.1 based on observed coseismic strain steps from the borehole strain monitoring network over China has been carried out with some interesting results. Firstly, many recordings disagree with theoretic calculation using static dislocation model. Secondly, abnormally large strain steps are ob-served at quite a few stations in the tectonically active east-northern China, while in the relatively inactive east-southern China no obvious steps are recorded. It is inferred that seismic stress triggering may significantly affect remote seismic strain field. In other words, whether remote faulting be seismically triggered or not may de-termine the pattern of local seismic strain changes. Further comparison study results of March 11, 1999 Zhangbei earthquake and November 1, 1999 Datong earthquake show that the specific pattern of seismic zones has obvious influence on seismic strain changes in the region. This supports the idea that observed abnormal strain steps might be produced by coseismicly stress-triggered local faulting.

Stress triggering of the Lushan M7. 0 earthquake by the Wenchuan Ms8. 0 earthquake

The Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake and the Lushan M7.0 earthquake occurred in the north and south segments of the Longmenshan nappe tectonic belt, respectively. Based on the focal mechanism and finite fault model of the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, we calculated the coulomb failure stress change. The inverted coulomb stress changes based on the Nishimura and Chenji models both show that the Lushan MT. 0 earth- quake occurred in the increased area of coulomb failure stress induced by the Wenchuan Ms8. 0 earthquake. The coulomb failure stress increased by approximately 0. 135 - 0. 152 bar in the source of the Lushan M7.0 earthquake, which is far more than the stress triggering threshold. Therefore, the Lushan M7.0 earthquake was most likely triggered by the coulomb failure stress change.

Global test of seismic static stress triggering model

Seismic static stress triggering model is tested using Harvard centroid moment tensor (CMT) solution catalogue of 1976~2000 and concept of earthquake doublet. Result shows that seismic static stress triggering effect does exist in the view of global earthquakes, but the effect is very weak. Dividing the earthquakes into thrust focal mechanism, normal focal mechanism, strike-slip focal mechanism, we find that non-strike-slip focal mechanism earthquakes have significant triggering effect, whereas, the triggering effect in strike-slip focal mechanism earthquakes is not obvious. Divided the subsequent events delay time of earthquake doublet into 5 classes of t1, t<1, t10, t<10, 1t10 (t is in unit of d), then seismic static stress triggering effect does not change with delay time in short time period after earthquakes. The research on seismic static stress triggering in different regions of the world indicates that triggering effect is significant in subduction belts. Seismic static stress triggering model is tested by using earthquake doublets in China and its adjacent region. The result indicates that seismic static stress triggering effect cannot be observed easily in China and its adjacent region due to the seismic focal mechanism type (most of the earthquakes are strike-slip earthquakes).

Study on Stress Triggering During the Activity Process of the Jiashi Strong Earthquake Swarm

The Bachu-Jiashi earthquake of MS6.8 occurred on February 24,2003,about 20km from the southeast of the 1997～1998 Jiashi seismic region in Xinjiang,and its aftershocks are rich and strong.Did the 1997～1998 Jiashi strong earthquake swarm trigger the Bachu-Jiashi MS6.8 earthquake? The Atushi earthquake of MS6.7 occurred in 1996,and the 1997～1998 Jiashi strong earthquake swarm occurred about 70km from the Atushi earthquake 10 months later.Did the Atushi earthquake of M-S6.7 encourage the 1997～1998 Jiashi strong earthquake swarm? There were 9 earthquakes with M-S6.0 from 1996 to 1997 in the Jiashi seismic region,how did they act on each other? To answer the above questions,the article studies the triggering effect of the activity process of the whole Jiashi earthquake swarm from the 1996 Atushi earthquake of M-S6.7,the 1997～1998 Jiashi strong swarm to the 2003 Bachu-Jiashi earthquake of M-S6.8,and analyzes the seismicity characteristics around the Jiashi region.The results show that the 1996 Atushi earthquake of M-S6.7 encouraged the 1997～1998 Jiashi strong swarm to some extent,the accumulative Coulomb stress change from the previous M-6.0 earthquakes of the Jiashi strong swarm had certain triggering effects on the following M-6.0 events,and the Coulomb stress change converted from the Jiashi strong swarm strongly encouraged the 2003 Bachu-Jiashi earthquake with M-S6.8.

Static Stress Triggering Effects Related with M_s8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake

In this article, firstly, we calculated and analyzed the patterns of Coulomb stress changes induced by a sequence of strong earthquakes that occurred in Songpan （松藩）, Sichuan （四川） Province in 1973 and 1976, and discovered that the Ms8.0 Wenchuan （汶川） earthquake of 2008 was epicentered in a relevant Coulomb stress triggering zone. This suggests that the Coulomb stress on the middle and southern segments of the Longmenshan （龙门山） fault zone increased after the Songpan sequence of strong earthquakes, and the stress increment might cause the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake having al- ready occurred somewhat ahead of time. Further, we calculated and analyzed Coulomb stress changes coinduced by both the Songpan sequence and the Ms8.0 Wenchuan mainshock. The result shows that the Ms6.4 Qingchuan （青川） earthquake of May 25, 2008 on the northeastern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone was triggered by the Wenchuan mainshock, and that the southwestern segment of the fault zone is also in the stress triggering zone. Besides, the Maoxian （茂县）-Wenchuan fault （i.e., the back-range fault of the Longmenshan fault zone）, which extends parallel to the seismogenic fault of the Wenchuan earthquake, is in a shadow zone of the Coulomb stress changes, and therefore, its potential hazard for producing a strong or large earthquake in the near future could be reduced relatively.

Inversion of coseismic stress-triggered fault slips using borehole strainmeter observations

Coseismic stress-triggering is becoming a new hot spot of research. Coseismic strain steps recorded by borehole strainmeters are particularly valuable in studying coseismic stress-triggered fault slips. Based on the theory of dis location, one can invert the triggered fault slips with such data if he/she has a well understanding about the local faults. Genetic algorithm can be applied to significantly raise the efficiency of searching a best solution among all possibilities in this kind of inversion. A testifying check of the program and analyses of each parameter＇s influence may further enhance the reliability of inversion results. Taking complexity of geological structure into account, the inversion results should be regarded as the predominant property or a comprehensive effect of triggered local faults＇ activities. As an attempt, we inverted the assumingly active faults＇ slips triggered by the Ms=8.1 Kunlun Mountain earthquake over Beijing area.

Tidal stress triggering effects of earthquakes based on various tectonic regions in China and related astronomical characteristics

Dividing the China's Mainland into different tectonic stress regions,we calculate tidal stress components along the seismic compressive and extensional principal stress axes at every earthquake's focus in different tectonic stress regions.Tidal stress triggering effect on every earthquake fault is analyzed.Based on this,the lunar-solar location parameters on the occurring times of earthquakes which suffered tidal triggering effects are calculated,and the distribution patterns of the lunar-solar location parameters in different tectonic stress regions are obtained.The results indicate that earthquake tidal triggering effects and related astronomical characteristics are dependent on the properties of regional tectonic stress and the geographic locations of earthquake faults.

Large aftershocks triggering by Coulomb failure stress following the 2001 MS=8.1 great Kunlun earthquake

The great Kunlun earthquake occurred on Nov. 14, 2001 in Qinghai Province, China. Five large aftershocks with magnitude larger than 5.0 occurred near the Kunlun fault after main shock. Calculations of the change in Coulomb failure stress reveal that 4 of 5 large aftershocks occurred in areas with Dsf >0 (10-2~10-1 MPa) and one aftershock occurred in an area with Dsf =-0.56 MPa. It is concluded that the permanent fault displacement due to the main shock is the main cause of activity of large aftershocks, but not the whole cause.

Numerical simulation of dynamic Coulomb stress changes induced by M6.5 earthquake in Wuding, Yunnan and its relationship with aftershocks

Based on the discrete wavenumber method, we calculate the fields of dynamic Coulomb rupture stress changes and static stress changes caused by M6.5 earthquake in Wuding, and study their relationship with the subsequent after- shocks. The results show that the spatial distribution patterns of the positive region of dynamic stress peak value and static stress peak value are similarly asymmetric, which are basically identical with distribution features of aftershock. The dynamic stress peak value and the static stress in the positive region are more than 0.1 MPa and 0.01 MPa of the triggering threshold, respectively, which indicates that the dynamic and static stresses are helpful for the occurrence of aftershock. This suggests that both influences of dynamic and static stresses should be con- sidered other than only either of them when studying aftershock triggering in near field.

Study of Triggering Action Between the Mani (M_S7.9) and the West Kunlun Mountains Pass (M_S8.1) Great Earthquakes and Their Dynamic Background

Based on Coulomb static stress variation, the stress trigging action of the Mani ( M S 7 9, Nov. 1997) earthquake on the West Kunlun Mountains Pass ( M S 8 1, Nov. 2001) earthquake is researched. Results of different source mechanism resolutions show that a 10 -3 MPa Coulomb stress due to the Mani earthquake was added to the fracture fault of the Kunlun earthquake, and this may shift the broken date to about 10 years earlier, and infer that the stress level in the crust is not low. Comparing the relationship between strong earthquake strength and frequency and earth rotation change, it is shown that the strength’s decrease and the variation period’s shortening of earth rotation are important controlling factors on strong earthquake activity. This great event with M S =8 1 took place probably due to a gradual strengthening background of regional stress field within the Qinghai_Xizang block in the period of acceleration of change of day’s length and stress triggering from the Mani earthquake.

The Triggering Mechanism for the Largest Aftershock (M_S=6.3) of the Great Luhuo Event (M_S=7.6) in 1973

The Great Luhuo Event ( M S=7 6) occurred on February 6, 1973 in Sichuan Province. There were a lot of aftershocks in the source area. The largest aftershock ( M S=6 3) occurred along a normal fault zone between the Xianshuihe Fault and the Ganzi Yushu fault. Based on the focal mechanism solution, surface rupture, coseismic dislocation and seismo\|geological tectonics of the event, an elastic dislocation model of the Great Luhuo Event with a strike slip mechanism was designed and the Coulomb Failure Stress Change ( ΔCFS) in the slip direction on normal faults along and surrounding the source zone due to the event was calculated. The results showed that the largest aftershock occurred in an area with ΔCFS >0, and that ΔCFS =4 5MPa. Therefore, the largest aftershock was probably triggered by the Coulomb Failure Stress Change.

3-D finite element modeling for evolution of stress field and interaction among strong earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan region

Based on the latest achievement about activities of geological structure, a 3-D finite-element model containing four layers of upper crust, lower crust (two layers) and upper mantle is established in the paper. By repeated tests and revisions, the boundary conditions of the model are determined. And then the background stress field, the stress field caused by fault creep and the stress field triggered by strong earthquake in Sichuan-Yunnan region, as well as their dynamic variations are calculated. The results indicate that the latter earthquake often occurs in the area with positive Coulomb rupture stress change associated with the former one, the former earthquake has a triggering effect on the latter one to a certain extent, and strong earthquake often occur in groups under the background of high stress, which is of great significance for distinguishing seismic anomalies, as well as for improving the level of earthquake prediction.

The stress field variation caused by faulting and the prediction for seismic risk

The stress field caused by faulting has an effect on the stability of the neighboring faults, and the study on the fault interaction has a close relation with the prediction of seismic risk. Stress field caused by the rectangle fault in the semi-infinite elastic medium is calculated on the basis of the elastic dislocation theory. The result shows that most of the successive large earthquakes, in the southwestern part of China and North China, occurred in the increasing area of shear stress S(xy) and the decreasing area of normal stress S(yy) The increasing of earthquake occurrence probability has a function relation with the increasing of stress. Earthquake triggering is resulted from the increasing of shear stress and the decreasing of normal stress. An activation coefficient A, of the earthquake is defined to express the change of seismic activity. The concrete risk region can be obtained through space scanning of At value. Finally, the fault interaction in a large scope is discussed in this paper.

Evolution of cumulative Coulomb failure stress in northeastern Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau and its effect on large earthquake occurrence

We simulate accumulative Coulomb failure stress change in a layered Maxwell viscoelastic media in the northeastern Qinghai-Xizang （Tibetan） Plateau since 1920. Lithospheric stress/strain evolution is assumed to be driven by dislocations of large earthquakes （M≥7.0） and secular tectonic loading. The earthquake rupture parameters such as the fault rupture length, width, and slip are either adopted from field investigations or estimated from their statistic relationships with the earthquake magnitudes and seismic moments. Our study shows that among 20 large earthquakes （M≥7.0） investigated, 17 occurred in areas where the Coulomb failure stress change is positive, with a triggering rate of 85%. This study provides essential data for the intermediate to long-term likelihood estimation of large earthquakes in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.

巨厚覆岩矿震孕育破裂特征与应力触发机制

【目的】深部开采巨厚覆岩破断导致引起地表震感的矿震频发,已成为制约矿区高效生产的最严峻难题,亟待改变矿区巨厚覆岩矿震频度高、防控难现状。【方法】以内蒙古自治区鄂尔多斯呼吉尔特矿区某邻空综采工作面频发巨厚覆岩矿震为研究对象,应用厚板理论分析巨厚覆岩结构破断演化规律,提取矿震波形主成分并采用矩张量反演方法定量研究矿震震源破裂机制,基于张拉、压缩及混合破裂震源主应力作用方式修正应力反演模型,改进应力反演算法,分析矿震震源孕育破裂特征及应力场演化规律,定量解析矿震应力触发机制。【结果和结论】结果表明,巨厚覆岩破断运移为矿震孕育触发的动力、能量源;主成分分析方法可快速提取因采矿环境干扰波形的主成分,为矩张量求解提供优质反演数据;修正后应力反演算法能够满足采动诱发非剪切破裂震源应力反演需求,实现对典型张拉、压缩等非剪切破裂矿震震源应力场反演;工作面邻空回采期间,顶板逐层向上与侧向采空区联动破断,采空区影响使得孕震期间顶板活动性增强,巨厚覆岩断裂特征整体呈显著张拉状态;矿震孕育过程中主应力作用方位基本一致,应力形因子分别为0.66、0.71和0.30,覆岩应力分布由单轴挤压转变为挤压张拉状态,最大主应力单轴挤压作用导致巨厚覆岩瞬时断裂释放大量弹性能是诱发“2·6”和“10·30”矿震的主要原因,工作面邻更大范围采空区开采,最大、最小主应力挤压张拉协同作用将可能诱发更大能级矿震。研究结论可为矿区及周边因矿震问题限制高效生产的矿井从源头调控降载减震提供理论支撑。

Earthquake triggering and delaying caused by fault interaction on Xianshuihe fault belt, southwestern China

The coseismic Coulomb stress change caused by fault interaction and its influences on the triggering and delaying of earthquake are briefly discussed. The Xianshuihe fault belt consists of Luhuo, Daofu, Kangding, Qianning and Ganzi fault. Luohuo (MS=7.6, 1973)-Kangding (MS=6.2, 1975)-Daofu (MS=6.9, 1981)-Ganzi (MS=6.0, 1982) earthquake is a seismic sequence continuous on the time axis with magnitude greater than 6.0. They occurred on the Luhuo, Kangding, Daofu and Ganzi fault, respectively. The coseismic Coulomb stress changes caused by each earthquake on its surrounding major faults and microcracks are calculated, and their effects on the triggering and delaying of the next earthquake and aftershocks are analyzed. It is shown that each earthquake of the sequence occurred on the fault segment with coseismic Coulomb stress increases caused by its predecessors, and most after-shocks are distributed along the microcracks with relatively larger coseismic Coulomb stress increases resulted from the main shock. With the fault interaction considered, the seismic potential of each segment along Xianshuihe fault belt is reassessed, and contrasted with those predicted results ignoring coseismic Coulomb stress change, the significance of fault interaction and its effect on triggering and delaying of earthquake are emphasized. It is con-cluded that fault interaction plays a very important role on seismic potential of Xianshuihe fault belt, and the maximal change of future earthquake probability on fault segment is up to 30.5%.

Failure time variation derived from R–S relation: the role of the static stress perturbation

In general, earthquake cycle related to earthquake faulting could include four major processes which could be described by （1） fault locking, （2） self-acceleration or nucleation （possible foreshocks）, （3） coseismic slip, and （4） post-stress relaxation and afterslip. A sudden static stress change/perturbation in the surrounding crust can advance/ delay the fault instability or failure time and modify earth- quake rates. Based on a simple one-dimensional spring-sli- der block model with the combination of rate-and-state- dependent friction relation, in this study, we have approxi- mately derived the simple analytical solutions of clock advance/delay of fault failures caused by a sudden static Coulomb stress change applied in the different temporal evolution periods during an earthquake faulting. The results have been used in the physics-based explanation of delayed characteristic earthquake in Parkfield region, California, in which the next characteristic earthquake of M 6.0 after 1966 occurred in 2004 instead of around 1988 according to its characteristic return period of 22 years. At the same time, the analytical solutions also indicate that the time advance/ delay in Coulomb stress change derived by the dislocation model has a certain limitation and fundamental flaw. Fur- thermore, we discussed the essential difference between rate- and state-variable constitutive （R-S） model and Coulomb stress model used commonly in current earthquake triggering study, and demonstrated that, in fact, the Coulomb stress model could be involved in the R-S model. The results, we have obtained in this study, could be used in the development of time-dependent fault interaction model and the probability calculation related to the time-dependent and renewal earthquake prediction model.

锦屏一级水电站库区中小地震震源机制解与局部应力场特征

利用四川及邻区数字地震台网2013—2018年的波形资料,基于CAP和HASH方法反演得到锦屏一级水电站(以下简称锦屏水库)库区及周边M_(L)≥2.5地震的震源机制解,根据DRSSI方法计算得到库区局部应力场信息,结合该区域的地质资料,从震源机制参数和局部应力场变化等方面讨论了水库加卸载对该区域地震活动的影响.取得的主要认识如下:(1)库区地震活动类型以走滑型为主,不同加卸载阶段震源机制类型存在一定差异,库区蓄水前期震源机制类型呈现多样性,蓄水后期与区域背景场趋于一致;(2)库区应力场最大主应力方向以NNW-SSE向为主,分时段结果显示,蓄水后期局部应力场最大主应力方向由NNW向逐渐发生偏转至NW向;(3)库区周边的地质构造和岩性条件有利于库水的渗透,蓄水后重力载荷和流体渗透的共同作用导致岩体断层面库仑应力的变化,从而呈现出库区蓄水前后中小地震活跃程度的显著差异特征.