Based on Gutenberg-Richter＇s relation,Bath＇s law,Omori＇s law and Well＇s relation of rupture scale,this paper forecasts the temporal decay,total number,possible area and greatest magnitude of strong aftershocks（gr...Based on Gutenberg-Richter＇s relation,Bath＇s law,Omori＇s law and Well＇s relation of rupture scale,this paper forecasts the temporal decay,total number,possible area and greatest magnitude of strong aftershocks（greater than or equal to M6.0） of the MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake by using the magnitude and statistical parameters of earthquakes in California area of USA.The number of strong aftershocks,the parameters of Gutenberg-Richter＇s relation and the modified form of Omori＇s law are validated based on the relocation data of aftershock sequence of the MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake.Moreover,the spatio-temporal characteristics and wave energy release of the strong aftershocks（M≥6.0） are analyzed.The result shows that strong aftershocks may occur at the end of local drop and sharp drop on the wave energy release curve.展开更多
Using the ground motion attenuation relation, we calculated and compared the effective peak acceleration （EPA） generated by main shocks and their strong aftershocks of 21 earthquake sequences with Ms≥7 occurred in ...Using the ground motion attenuation relation, we calculated and compared the effective peak acceleration （EPA） generated by main shocks and their strong aftershocks of 21 earthquake sequences with Ms≥7 occurred in Chinese mainland and offing of China during 1966-2002. The result shows that EPA of strong aftershocks usually exceed that of main shock for 76.2% earthquake sequences and EPA of more than 50% strong aftershocks are greatly larger than that of main shocks in large area, which suggests that it is necessary to take damage produced by strong aftershock into account in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the seismic design.展开更多
In order to solve the problem of early estimation of moderately strong aftershock duration time in an earthquake sequence,this study has been conducted.First,the definition of the strong aftershock has been given.It i...In order to solve the problem of early estimation of moderately strong aftershock duration time in an earthquake sequence,this study has been conducted.First,the definition of the strong aftershock has been given.It is pointed out that there is a difference in the strong aftershock duration time between the main shock type sequence and the strong earthquake swarm sequence.After dividing the three cases,i.e.,a strong aftershock duration time larger than 1 day,smaller than 1 day,and no strong aftershock occurred in a main shock type sequence by using the pattern recognition method,we gave the rough correlation relation between strong aftershock duration time and first large shock magnitude for two types of sequences.Finally,the judgment index and method of estimating strong aftershock duration times for different sequence types have been given.展开更多
By calculating the azimuth,phase angle and change rate of tidal force,and contrasting their rupture types,we find that in 6 of 11 reverse faulting earthquakes,the angles between the direction of the horizontal tidal f...By calculating the azimuth,phase angle and change rate of tidal force,and contrasting their rupture types,we find that in 6 of 11 reverse faulting earthquakes,the angles between the direction of the horizontal tidal force and compressive principal stress are within 33°,the vertical phase angles of all 8 strike-slip earthquakes are in the upward peak section and the vertical phase angles of two extensional normal faulting earthquakes are in the downward peak section.According to the above statistics,the mechanism of tidal force triggering of the Wenchuan MS8.0 Earthquake and its strong aftershocks is discussed.展开更多
We propose the pseudo-periodicity method and its quantitative prediction indexes for the occurrence time of earlier strong aftershock. We conducted tests of regressive prediction, and the R-value of the tests is 0.45,...We propose the pseudo-periodicity method and its quantitative prediction indexes for the occurrence time of earlier strong aftershock. We conducted tests of regressive prediction, and the R-value of the tests is 0.45, indicating that this method is effective for prediction.展开更多
This paper deals with the distributive characteristics of the occurrence time of earthquakes with respect to the aftershock sequences of strong earthquakes. The distribution of lunar and solar local hour angles at the...This paper deals with the distributive characteristics of the occurrence time of earthquakes with respect to the aftershock sequences of strong earthquakes. The distribution of lunar and solar local hour angles at the time of commencement of moderate and strong aftershocks indicates that the time of commencement of moderate and strong aftershocks is modulated by the positions of the sun and moon and then the earthquake restrained time zones exists also. In this paper the differences of earthquake restrained time zones between the preshock sequences and the aftershock sequences are compared, and the possible mechanism is analyzed preliminarily. And the possible maximum scope of accuracy in predicting the occurrence time of an earthquake is determined as well.展开更多
基金Basic research program from Institute of Earthquake Science China Earthquake Administration (690206)Social Welfare Research Program from Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2005DIB3J119)
基金supported by Basic Science and Research Fund for Chinese Commonweal Institutes under grant No. 2008B07the National Natural Science Foundation of China under grant No. 90715042+1 种基金Special Research Project of Earth-quake Engineering under grant No. 200808008National Science and Technology Support Plan under grant No. 2006BAC13B02
文摘Based on Gutenberg-Richter＇s relation,Bath＇s law,Omori＇s law and Well＇s relation of rupture scale,this paper forecasts the temporal decay,total number,possible area and greatest magnitude of strong aftershocks（greater than or equal to M6.0） of the MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake by using the magnitude and statistical parameters of earthquakes in California area of USA.The number of strong aftershocks,the parameters of Gutenberg-Richter＇s relation and the modified form of Omori＇s law are validated based on the relocation data of aftershock sequence of the MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake.Moreover,the spatio-temporal characteristics and wave energy release of the strong aftershocks（M≥6.0） are analyzed.The result shows that strong aftershocks may occur at the end of local drop and sharp drop on the wave energy release curve.
基金Department of Science and Technology Important International Cooperate Subject (2004DFA06000)Joint seis-mological Science Foundation of China (604025).
文摘Using the ground motion attenuation relation, we calculated and compared the effective peak acceleration （EPA） generated by main shocks and their strong aftershocks of 21 earthquake sequences with Ms≥7 occurred in Chinese mainland and offing of China during 1966-2002. The result shows that EPA of strong aftershocks usually exceed that of main shock for 76.2% earthquake sequences and EPA of more than 50% strong aftershocks are greatly larger than that of main shocks in large area, which suggests that it is necessary to take damage produced by strong aftershock into account in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the seismic design.
基金This project was sponsored by the Jiont Earthquake Science Foundation (91012), China
文摘In order to solve the problem of early estimation of moderately strong aftershock duration time in an earthquake sequence,this study has been conducted.First,the definition of the strong aftershock has been given.It is pointed out that there is a difference in the strong aftershock duration time between the main shock type sequence and the strong earthquake swarm sequence.After dividing the three cases,i.e.,a strong aftershock duration time larger than 1 day,smaller than 1 day,and no strong aftershock occurred in a main shock type sequence by using the pattern recognition method,we gave the rough correlation relation between strong aftershock duration time and first large shock magnitude for two types of sequences.Finally,the judgment index and method of estimating strong aftershock duration times for different sequence types have been given.
基金sponsored under the Seismic Situation Tracing Directional Work Project in Contract System in 2009 (20090203012009010107),China
文摘By calculating the azimuth,phase angle and change rate of tidal force,and contrasting their rupture types,we find that in 6 of 11 reverse faulting earthquakes,the angles between the direction of the horizontal tidal force and compressive principal stress are within 33°,the vertical phase angles of all 8 strike-slip earthquakes are in the upward peak section and the vertical phase angles of two extensional normal faulting earthquakes are in the downward peak section.According to the above statistics,the mechanism of tidal force triggering of the Wenchuan MS8.0 Earthquake and its strong aftershocks is discussed.
文摘We propose the pseudo-periodicity method and its quantitative prediction indexes for the occurrence time of earlier strong aftershock. We conducted tests of regressive prediction, and the R-value of the tests is 0.45, indicating that this method is effective for prediction.
文摘This paper deals with the distributive characteristics of the occurrence time of earthquakes with respect to the aftershock sequences of strong earthquakes. The distribution of lunar and solar local hour angles at the time of commencement of moderate and strong aftershocks indicates that the time of commencement of moderate and strong aftershocks is modulated by the positions of the sun and moon and then the earthquake restrained time zones exists also. In this paper the differences of earthquake restrained time zones between the preshock sequences and the aftershock sequences are compared, and the possible mechanism is analyzed preliminarily. And the possible maximum scope of accuracy in predicting the occurrence time of an earthquake is determined as well.
