The root quality of sweet potato cultivated during the summer season is poor in northern China;thus,this study was conducted to determine whether root quality could be improved through mulching with plastic film(MPF)....The root quality of sweet potato cultivated during the summer season is poor in northern China;thus,this study was conducted to determine whether root quality could be improved through mulching with plastic film(MPF).The effect of MPF on root starch and its composition,the activity of starch synthesis enzymes,and other quality-related parameters were investigated in two purple flesh sweet potato cultivars,Jishu 18 and Ayamurasaki(Aya).The results indicated that root dry matter,anthocyanin content,adenosine triphosphate(ATP),and starch content were higher in both cultivars under the MPF treatment than those under the control treatment.The root adenosine diphosphate glucose pyrophosphorylase/uridine diphosphate glucose pyrophosphorylase(ADPGPPase/UDPGPPase)activity and adenosine triphosphatease(ATPase)activity were increased using MPF.However,under the MPF treatment,the amylose content,soluble sugar content,and granule-bound synthase(GBSS)activity increased in Jishu 18 but decreased in Aya,and the amylopectin content,protein content,and soluble starch synthase(SSS)activity decreased in Jishu 18 but increased in Aya.Therefore,MPF seems benifit to improve the quality of sweet potato,but the effects of this treatment condition may be dependent on the cultivar.展开更多
Ridge-furrow film mulching has been proven to be an effective water-saving and yield-improving planting pattern in arid and semi-arid regions.Drought is the main factor limiting the local agricultural production in th...Ridge-furrow film mulching has been proven to be an effective water-saving and yield-improving planting pattern in arid and semi-arid regions.Drought is the main factor limiting the local agricultural production in the Loess Plateau of China.In this study,we tried to select a suitable ridge-furrow mulching system to improve this situation.A two-year field experiment of summer maize(Zea mays L.)during the growing seasons of 2017 and 2018 was conducted to systematically analyze the effects of flat planting with no film mulching(CK),ridge-furrow with ridges mulching and furrows bare(RFM),and double ridges and furrows full mulching(DRFFM)on soil temperature,soil water storage(SWS),root growth,aboveground dry matter,water use efficiency(WUE),and grain yield.Both RFM and DRFFM significantly increased soil temperature in ridges,while soil temperature in furrows for RFM and DRFFM was similar to that for CK.The largest SWS was observed in DRFFM,followed by RFM and CK,with significant differences among them.SWS was lower in ridges than in furrows for RFM.DRFFM treatment kept soil water in ridges,resulting in higher SWS in ridges than in furrows after a period of no water input.Across the two growing seasons,compared with CK,RFM increased root mass by 10.2%and 19.3%at the jointing and filling stages,respectively,and DRFFM increased root mass by 7.9%at the jointing stage but decreased root mass by 6.0%at the filling stage.Over the two growing seasons,root length at the jointing and filling stages was respectively increased by 75.4%and 58.7%in DRFFM,and 20.6%and 30.2%in RFM.Relative to the jointing stage,the increased proportions of root mass and length at the filling stage were respectively 42.8%and 94.9%in DRFFM,63.2%and 115.1%in CK,and 76.7%and 132.1%in RFM,over the two growing seasons,showing that DRFFM slowed down root growth while RFM promoted root growth at the later growth stages.DRFFM treatment increased root mass and root length in ridges and decreased them in 0-30 cm soil layer,while RFM increased them in 0-30 cm soil layer.Compared with CK,DRFFM decreased aboveground dry matter while RFM increased it.Evapotranspiration was reduced by 9.8%and 7.1%in DRFFM and RFM,respectively,across the two growing seasons.Grain yield was decreased by 14.3%in DRFFM and increased by 13.6%in RFM compared with CK over the two growing seasons.WUE in CK was non-significantly 6.8%higher than that in DRFFM and significantly 22.5%lower than that in RFM across the two growing seasons.Thus,RFM planting pattern is recommended as a viable water-saving option for summer maize in the Loess Plateau of China.展开更多
Limited water resources often result in reduced crop yield and low water productivity(WP). In northwestern China, crop production is generally dependent on precipitation. Therefore, a variety of agricultural rainwat...Limited water resources often result in reduced crop yield and low water productivity(WP). In northwestern China, crop production is generally dependent on precipitation. Therefore, a variety of agricultural rainwater harvesting(ARH) techniques have been used for conserving soil moisture, ameliorating soil environment, increasing crop yield, and improving water use efficiency. A two-year(2013–2015) field experiment was conducted under a typical sub-humid drought-prone climate in Yangling(108°24′E, 34°20′N; 521 m a.s.l.), Shaanxi Province, China, to explore the effects of mulching(same for summer maize and winter wheat) on soil moisture, soil temperature, crop water consumption, and crop yield with a winter wheat/summer maize rotation. Crops were planted in a ridge-furrow pattern and the treatments consisted of a transparent film mulch over the ridges(M1), a crop straw mulch in the furrows(M2), a transparent film mulch over the ridges and a crop straw mulch in the furrows(M3), a black film mulch over the ridges and a crop straw mulch in the furrows(M4), and a control with no mulch(CK). Results showed that M4 was the best treatment for improving soil water storage and content, and decreasing crop water consumption during the summer maize and winter wheat rotation. In both maize and wheat seasons, M1 had a higher soil temperature than M2 and CK, and M3 had a higher soil temperature than M4. In the maize seasons, M4 had the highest yield, WP, and precipitation productivity(PP), with the average values for these parameters increasing by 30.9%, 39.0%, and 31.0%, respectively, compared to those in CK. In the wheat seasons, however, M3 had the highest yield, WP, and PP, with the average values for these parameters being 23.7%, 26.7%, and 23.8% higher, respectively, than those in CK. Annual yield(maize and wheat yields combined) and WP did not differ significantly between M3 and M4. These results suggested that M3 and M4 may thus be the optimal ARH practices for the production of winter wheat and summer maize, respectively, in arid and semi-arid areas.展开更多
Soil microbial flora and influencing factors of soil microbes in soil and gravel-sand mixed layer( SGSML),roots denseness layer( RDL),eluviate layer( EL) and calcium accumulation layer( CAL) in gravel-sand mul...Soil microbial flora and influencing factors of soil microbes in soil and gravel-sand mixed layer( SGSML),roots denseness layer( RDL),eluviate layer( EL) and calcium accumulation layer( CAL) in gravel-sand mulched fields( GSMFs) with different gravel mulched years( 1,6,12,19 and 25 years) were studied. The results showed that in the composition of soil microbes in the GSMFs,the quantity of bacteria was the largest,followed by actinomycetes,while the number of fungi was the smallest. The total quantity of soil microorganisms in the GSMFs dropped rapidly with the increase of soil depth,which was related to the sudden decrease in the quantity of bacteria. The number of microbes in the RDL was larger than that in the SGSML with few roots due to the effects of root distribution. The number of bacteria and actinomycete in the growing season was larger than that in the non-growing season,while the quantity of fungi in the growing season was smaller than that in the non-growing season. The quantity of bacteria and fungi was the largest in the GSMFs which had been mulched with gravel for 6-12 years. With the increase of mulching time,the GSMFs aged gradually,so their quantity reduced gradually. The quantity of actinomycetes was the smallest in the GSMFs which had been mulched with gravel for 6-12 years and increased with the increase of mulching time. The number of soil microbes in the GSMFs had a good correlation with soil moisture content,p H and mulching time. Soil total carbon content was an important factor restricting the quantity of soil microbes in the GSMFs.展开更多
Based on the definition of cool summer and warm summer, statistical characteristics of severe tropical cyclones are studied over East China Sea using 1951-1994 typhoon and temperature data. It is foundthat the frequen...Based on the definition of cool summer and warm summer, statistical characteristics of severe tropical cyclones are studied over East China Sea using 1951-1994 typhoon and temperature data. It is foundthat the frequency, tracks, intensity and moving speed 0f the tropical cyclone between c0ld summer andwarm summer were much different. The backgtound features 0f the difference were also discussed incontrast.展开更多
Drought is one of the main factors limiting the agricultural planting and production;gravel mulching is an effective inhibiting evaporation and water-saving planting pattern in the arid regions. In this study, experim...Drought is one of the main factors limiting the agricultural planting and production;gravel mulching is an effective inhibiting evaporation and water-saving planting pattern in the arid regions. In this study, experiments were conducted to study soil moisture effect and regression model with different gravel mulching, the soil moisture content and evaporation were compared that gravel mulched with different particle sizes, different thickness layer and different mulched years. The results showed that: 1) The cumulative soil evaporation of gravel mulched was only 29.3% of that bare fields. Mulching gravel could significantly reduce soil moisture evaporation. 2) The effects of inhibiting soil moisture evaporation are the best when mulch gravel thickness is 10 - 15 cm. 3) The particle size of gravel mulched is smaller, the evaporation inhibition effect will be better. Considering the water holding capacity and material economy, it is the most suitable to mulch gravel with the particle size of 3 - 5 cm. 4) Mulching gravel on the soil surface for 1 - 3 years can improve the soil moisture content. However, the gravel was mulched for more than five years, the soil moisture content decreased significantly. 5) The quadratic polynomial regression fitting model can better simulate and predict the cumulative evaporation on different gravel mulched, and the regression fitting degree R<sup>2</sup> is more than 0.98.展开更多
This paper attempts to analyze in detail the remote influence of the Indian Ocean Basin warming on the Northwest Pacific (NWP) during the year of decaying E1 Nifio. Observation data and the Fast Ocean- Atmosphere co...This paper attempts to analyze in detail the remote influence of the Indian Ocean Basin warming on the Northwest Pacific (NWP) during the year of decaying E1 Nifio. Observation data and the Fast Ocean- Atmosphere coupled Model 1.5 were used to investigate the triggering conditions under which the remote influence is formed between the positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the North Indian Ocean and the Anomalous Northwest Pacific anticyclone (ANWPA). Our research show that it is only when there is a contributory background wind field over the Indian Ocean, i,e., when the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) reaches its peak, that the warmer SST anomaly in the North Indian Ocean incites significant easterly wind anomalies in the lower atmosphere of the Indo-West tropical Pacific. This then produces the remote influence on the ANWPA. Therefore, the SST anomaly in the North Indian Ocean might interfere with the prediction of the East Asia Summer Monsoon in the year of decaying E1 Nifio. Both the sustaining effect of local negative SST anomalies in the NWP, and the remote effect of positive SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean on the ANWPA, should be considered in further research.展开更多
Recent studies have found a connection between Indian Ocean Basin Warming and the anomalous Northwest Pacific Anticy- clone (ANPWA) during El Nifio decaying year. This study focuses on the necessary condition for th...Recent studies have found a connection between Indian Ocean Basin Warming and the anomalous Northwest Pacific Anticy- clone (ANPWA) during El Nifio decaying year. This study focuses on the necessary condition for this connection by using ob- servation and numerical simulation. The seasonal transition of the Indian Ocean sea surface wind is critical to the climatic ef- fect of Indian Ocean Basin Warming. When the South Asian Summer Monsoon reaches its peak, the background wind be- comes desirable for basin warming, which then affects the climate in the Northwest Pacific. Via the Kelvin waves and Ekman divergence, the wind anomalies exist in the lower atmosphere east of the Indian Ocean warm Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies, and intensify and sustain the ANWPA throughout the E1 Nifio decaying summer. This impact plays an important role in the inter-annual variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon.展开更多
We present a model for predicting summertime surface air temperature in Northeast China(NESSAT) using a year-to-year incremental approach.The predicted value for each year's increase or decrease of NESSAT is added ...We present a model for predicting summertime surface air temperature in Northeast China(NESSAT) using a year-to-year incremental approach.The predicted value for each year's increase or decrease of NESSAT is added to the observed value within a particular year to yield the net forecast NESSAT.The seasonal forecast model for the year-to-year increments of NESSAT is constructed based on data from 1975- 2007.Five predictors are used:an index for sea ice cover over the East Siberian Sea,an index for central Pacific tropical sea surface temperature,two high latitude circulation indices,as well as a North American pressure index.All predictors are available by no later than March,which allows for compilation of a seasonal forecast with a two-month lead time.The prediction model accurately captures the interannual variations of NESSAT during 1977-2007 with a correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed NESSAT of 0.87(accounting for 76%of total variance) and a mean absolute error(MAE) of 0.3℃.A cross-validation test during 1977-2008 demonstrates that the model has good predictive skill,with MAE of 0.4℃and a correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed NESSAT of 0.76.展开更多
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province,China(ZR2014YL015)the Agricultural Seed of Shandong Province,China(2016LZGC005)+1 种基金the earmarked fund for China Agriculture Research System(CARS-10-B7 and CARS-10-B8)the Youth Foundation of Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences,China(2014QNM31)
文摘The root quality of sweet potato cultivated during the summer season is poor in northern China;thus,this study was conducted to determine whether root quality could be improved through mulching with plastic film(MPF).The effect of MPF on root starch and its composition,the activity of starch synthesis enzymes,and other quality-related parameters were investigated in two purple flesh sweet potato cultivars,Jishu 18 and Ayamurasaki(Aya).The results indicated that root dry matter,anthocyanin content,adenosine triphosphate(ATP),and starch content were higher in both cultivars under the MPF treatment than those under the control treatment.The root adenosine diphosphate glucose pyrophosphorylase/uridine diphosphate glucose pyrophosphorylase(ADPGPPase/UDPGPPase)activity and adenosine triphosphatease(ATPase)activity were increased using MPF.However,under the MPF treatment,the amylose content,soluble sugar content,and granule-bound synthase(GBSS)activity increased in Jishu 18 but decreased in Aya,and the amylopectin content,protein content,and soluble starch synthase(SSS)activity decreased in Jishu 18 but increased in Aya.Therefore,MPF seems benifit to improve the quality of sweet potato,but the effects of this treatment condition may be dependent on the cultivar.
基金This study was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51979235,51909221)the Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Integration Promotion Project of Shaanxi Province,China(SXNYLSYF2019-01)+1 种基金the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2019M650277)the Natural Science Basic Research Plan in Shaanxi Province,China(2020JQ-276).
文摘Ridge-furrow film mulching has been proven to be an effective water-saving and yield-improving planting pattern in arid and semi-arid regions.Drought is the main factor limiting the local agricultural production in the Loess Plateau of China.In this study,we tried to select a suitable ridge-furrow mulching system to improve this situation.A two-year field experiment of summer maize(Zea mays L.)during the growing seasons of 2017 and 2018 was conducted to systematically analyze the effects of flat planting with no film mulching(CK),ridge-furrow with ridges mulching and furrows bare(RFM),and double ridges and furrows full mulching(DRFFM)on soil temperature,soil water storage(SWS),root growth,aboveground dry matter,water use efficiency(WUE),and grain yield.Both RFM and DRFFM significantly increased soil temperature in ridges,while soil temperature in furrows for RFM and DRFFM was similar to that for CK.The largest SWS was observed in DRFFM,followed by RFM and CK,with significant differences among them.SWS was lower in ridges than in furrows for RFM.DRFFM treatment kept soil water in ridges,resulting in higher SWS in ridges than in furrows after a period of no water input.Across the two growing seasons,compared with CK,RFM increased root mass by 10.2%and 19.3%at the jointing and filling stages,respectively,and DRFFM increased root mass by 7.9%at the jointing stage but decreased root mass by 6.0%at the filling stage.Over the two growing seasons,root length at the jointing and filling stages was respectively increased by 75.4%and 58.7%in DRFFM,and 20.6%and 30.2%in RFM.Relative to the jointing stage,the increased proportions of root mass and length at the filling stage were respectively 42.8%and 94.9%in DRFFM,63.2%and 115.1%in CK,and 76.7%and 132.1%in RFM,over the two growing seasons,showing that DRFFM slowed down root growth while RFM promoted root growth at the later growth stages.DRFFM treatment increased root mass and root length in ridges and decreased them in 0-30 cm soil layer,while RFM increased them in 0-30 cm soil layer.Compared with CK,DRFFM decreased aboveground dry matter while RFM increased it.Evapotranspiration was reduced by 9.8%and 7.1%in DRFFM and RFM,respectively,across the two growing seasons.Grain yield was decreased by 14.3%in DRFFM and increased by 13.6%in RFM compared with CK over the two growing seasons.WUE in CK was non-significantly 6.8%higher than that in DRFFM and significantly 22.5%lower than that in RFM across the two growing seasons.Thus,RFM planting pattern is recommended as a viable water-saving option for summer maize in the Loess Plateau of China.
基金supported by the Special Fund for Agro-scientific Research in the Public Interest (201503125, 201503105)the Chinese National High Technology Research and Development Program (2011AA100504)
文摘Limited water resources often result in reduced crop yield and low water productivity(WP). In northwestern China, crop production is generally dependent on precipitation. Therefore, a variety of agricultural rainwater harvesting(ARH) techniques have been used for conserving soil moisture, ameliorating soil environment, increasing crop yield, and improving water use efficiency. A two-year(2013–2015) field experiment was conducted under a typical sub-humid drought-prone climate in Yangling(108°24′E, 34°20′N; 521 m a.s.l.), Shaanxi Province, China, to explore the effects of mulching(same for summer maize and winter wheat) on soil moisture, soil temperature, crop water consumption, and crop yield with a winter wheat/summer maize rotation. Crops were planted in a ridge-furrow pattern and the treatments consisted of a transparent film mulch over the ridges(M1), a crop straw mulch in the furrows(M2), a transparent film mulch over the ridges and a crop straw mulch in the furrows(M3), a black film mulch over the ridges and a crop straw mulch in the furrows(M4), and a control with no mulch(CK). Results showed that M4 was the best treatment for improving soil water storage and content, and decreasing crop water consumption during the summer maize and winter wheat rotation. In both maize and wheat seasons, M1 had a higher soil temperature than M2 and CK, and M3 had a higher soil temperature than M4. In the maize seasons, M4 had the highest yield, WP, and precipitation productivity(PP), with the average values for these parameters increasing by 30.9%, 39.0%, and 31.0%, respectively, compared to those in CK. In the wheat seasons, however, M3 had the highest yield, WP, and PP, with the average values for these parameters being 23.7%, 26.7%, and 23.8% higher, respectively, than those in CK. Annual yield(maize and wheat yields combined) and WP did not differ significantly between M3 and M4. These results suggested that M3 and M4 may thus be the optimal ARH practices for the production of winter wheat and summer maize, respectively, in arid and semi-arid areas.
基金Supported by Sheng Tongsheng Science and Technology Innovation Foundation of Gansu Agricultural University(GSAU-STS-1427)Open Foundation for Breeding Base of National Key Laboratory Co-founded by Gansu Province+1 种基金the Ministry of Science and Technology-Gansu Provincial Key Lab of Aridland Crop Science(GSCS-2012-14)National Natural Science Foundation of China(31560356)
文摘Soil microbial flora and influencing factors of soil microbes in soil and gravel-sand mixed layer( SGSML),roots denseness layer( RDL),eluviate layer( EL) and calcium accumulation layer( CAL) in gravel-sand mulched fields( GSMFs) with different gravel mulched years( 1,6,12,19 and 25 years) were studied. The results showed that in the composition of soil microbes in the GSMFs,the quantity of bacteria was the largest,followed by actinomycetes,while the number of fungi was the smallest. The total quantity of soil microorganisms in the GSMFs dropped rapidly with the increase of soil depth,which was related to the sudden decrease in the quantity of bacteria. The number of microbes in the RDL was larger than that in the SGSML with few roots due to the effects of root distribution. The number of bacteria and actinomycete in the growing season was larger than that in the non-growing season,while the quantity of fungi in the growing season was smaller than that in the non-growing season. The quantity of bacteria and fungi was the largest in the GSMFs which had been mulched with gravel for 6-12 years. With the increase of mulching time,the GSMFs aged gradually,so their quantity reduced gradually. The quantity of actinomycetes was the smallest in the GSMFs which had been mulched with gravel for 6-12 years and increased with the increase of mulching time. The number of soil microbes in the GSMFs had a good correlation with soil moisture content,p H and mulching time. Soil total carbon content was an important factor restricting the quantity of soil microbes in the GSMFs.
文摘Based on the definition of cool summer and warm summer, statistical characteristics of severe tropical cyclones are studied over East China Sea using 1951-1994 typhoon and temperature data. It is foundthat the frequency, tracks, intensity and moving speed 0f the tropical cyclone between c0ld summer andwarm summer were much different. The backgtound features 0f the difference were also discussed incontrast.
文摘Drought is one of the main factors limiting the agricultural planting and production;gravel mulching is an effective inhibiting evaporation and water-saving planting pattern in the arid regions. In this study, experiments were conducted to study soil moisture effect and regression model with different gravel mulching, the soil moisture content and evaporation were compared that gravel mulched with different particle sizes, different thickness layer and different mulched years. The results showed that: 1) The cumulative soil evaporation of gravel mulched was only 29.3% of that bare fields. Mulching gravel could significantly reduce soil moisture evaporation. 2) The effects of inhibiting soil moisture evaporation are the best when mulch gravel thickness is 10 - 15 cm. 3) The particle size of gravel mulched is smaller, the evaporation inhibition effect will be better. Considering the water holding capacity and material economy, it is the most suitable to mulch gravel with the particle size of 3 - 5 cm. 4) Mulching gravel on the soil surface for 1 - 3 years can improve the soil moisture content. However, the gravel was mulched for more than five years, the soil moisture content decreased significantly. 5) The quadratic polynomial regression fitting model can better simulate and predict the cumulative evaporation on different gravel mulched, and the regression fitting degree R<sup>2</sup> is more than 0.98.
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(Nos.2010CB428504,2012CB956002)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.40906005,41105059,41065005,GYHY201106017,GYHY201306027)the National Key Technology Research and Development Program(No.2009BAC51B01)
文摘This paper attempts to analyze in detail the remote influence of the Indian Ocean Basin warming on the Northwest Pacific (NWP) during the year of decaying E1 Nifio. Observation data and the Fast Ocean- Atmosphere coupled Model 1.5 were used to investigate the triggering conditions under which the remote influence is formed between the positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the North Indian Ocean and the Anomalous Northwest Pacific anticyclone (ANWPA). Our research show that it is only when there is a contributory background wind field over the Indian Ocean, i,e., when the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) reaches its peak, that the warmer SST anomaly in the North Indian Ocean incites significant easterly wind anomalies in the lower atmosphere of the Indo-West tropical Pacific. This then produces the remote influence on the ANWPA. Therefore, the SST anomaly in the North Indian Ocean might interfere with the prediction of the East Asia Summer Monsoon in the year of decaying E1 Nifio. Both the sustaining effect of local negative SST anomalies in the NWP, and the remote effect of positive SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean on the ANWPA, should be considered in further research.
基金supported by the National Key Program for Developing Basic Science(Grant Nos.2010CB428504&2012CB956002)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.40906005,41105059,41275069,GYHY201106017&GYHY201206038)the National Key Technologies R&D Program of China(Grant No.2009BAC51B01)
文摘Recent studies have found a connection between Indian Ocean Basin Warming and the anomalous Northwest Pacific Anticy- clone (ANPWA) during El Nifio decaying year. This study focuses on the necessary condition for this connection by using ob- servation and numerical simulation. The seasonal transition of the Indian Ocean sea surface wind is critical to the climatic ef- fect of Indian Ocean Basin Warming. When the South Asian Summer Monsoon reaches its peak, the background wind be- comes desirable for basin warming, which then affects the climate in the Northwest Pacific. Via the Kelvin waves and Ekman divergence, the wind anomalies exist in the lower atmosphere east of the Indian Ocean warm Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies, and intensify and sustain the ANWPA throughout the E1 Nifio decaying summer. This impact plays an important role in the inter-annual variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon.
基金Supported by the Special Fund for Public Welfare(Meteorology)(GYHY200906018)the Innovation Key Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(KZCX2-YW-BR-14)+1 种基金the Basic Research Program of China(2009CB421406)the National Excellent Ph.D.Dissertation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘We present a model for predicting summertime surface air temperature in Northeast China(NESSAT) using a year-to-year incremental approach.The predicted value for each year's increase or decrease of NESSAT is added to the observed value within a particular year to yield the net forecast NESSAT.The seasonal forecast model for the year-to-year increments of NESSAT is constructed based on data from 1975- 2007.Five predictors are used:an index for sea ice cover over the East Siberian Sea,an index for central Pacific tropical sea surface temperature,two high latitude circulation indices,as well as a North American pressure index.All predictors are available by no later than March,which allows for compilation of a seasonal forecast with a two-month lead time.The prediction model accurately captures the interannual variations of NESSAT during 1977-2007 with a correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed NESSAT of 0.87(accounting for 76%of total variance) and a mean absolute error(MAE) of 0.3℃.A cross-validation test during 1977-2008 demonstrates that the model has good predictive skill,with MAE of 0.4℃and a correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed NESSAT of 0.76.