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Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Effect Summer Rainfall in Huanghuai, Jianghuai Region in China
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作者 Tiantian Liu Xin Wang 《Open Journal of Applied Sciences》 2023年第8期1440-1445,共6页
Summer Precipitation in Eastern China was closely related to the global sea surface temperature field. In this paper, the impact of the main sea surface temperature anomaly on flood season precipitation in China’s Hu... Summer Precipitation in Eastern China was closely related to the global sea surface temperature field. In this paper, the impact of the main sea surface temperature anomaly on flood season precipitation in China’s Huanghuai and Jianghuai regions is examined as an external forcing factor for short-term climate prediction. Through analysis of global sea surface temperature anomalies and regional anomalies in Huanghuai and Jianghuai, a significant effect related to the main area, the North Pacific region, and the Nino3 corresponding index calculation is found. Various key areas are examined for their relevance, and finally, the mechanism of summer precipitation in two key zones, China’s Huanghuai and Jianghuai regions, is briefly discussed. The main implication is the prediction of season precipitation based on the external forcing signal of sea surface temperature anomaly in China’s Huanghuai and Jianghuai regions. 展开更多
关键词 summer rainfall Sea Surface Temperature II Rain Type RELATIVE
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Relationship between Indian and East Asian Summer Rainfall Variations 被引量:7
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作者 Renguang WU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2017年第1期4-15,共12页
The Indian and East Asian summer monsoons are two components of the whole Asian summer monsoon system. Previous studies have indicated in-phase and out-of-phase variations between Indian and East Asian summer rainfall... The Indian and East Asian summer monsoons are two components of the whole Asian summer monsoon system. Previous studies have indicated in-phase and out-of-phase variations between Indian and East Asian summer rainfall. The present study reviews the current understanding of the connection between Indian and East Asian summer rainfall. The review covers the relationship of northern China, southern Japan, and South Korean summer rainfall with Indian summer rainfall; the atmospheric circulation anomalies connecting Indian and East Asian summer rainfall variations; the long-term change in the connection between Indian and northern China rainfall and the plausible reasons for the change; and the influence of ENSO on the relationship between Indian and East Asian summer rainfall and its change. While much progress has been made about the relationship between Indian and East Asian summer rainfall variations, there are several remaining issues that need investigation. These include the processes involved in the connection between Indian and East Asian summer rainfall, the non-stationarity of the connection and the plausible reasons, the influences of ENSO on the relationship, the performance of climate models in simulating the relationship between Indian and East Asian summer rainfall, and the relationship between Indian and East Asian rainfall intraseasonal fluctuations. 展开更多
关键词 Indian summer rainfall East Asian summer rainfall atmospheric circulation long-term change ENSO
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Climatic Features Related to Eastern China Summer Rainfalls in the NCAR CCM3 被引量:37
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作者 宇如聪 李薇 +4 位作者 张学洪 刘屹岷 俞永强 刘海龙 周天军 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2000年第4期503-518,共16页
The climatic features associated with the eastern China summer rainfalls (ECSR) are examined in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model Version 3 (CCM3) of the United States of Amer... The climatic features associated with the eastern China summer rainfalls (ECSR) are examined in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model Version 3 (CCM3) of the United States of America, and run with time-evolving sea surface temperature (SST) from September 1978 to August 1993. The CCM3 is shown to capture the salient seasonal features of ECSR. As many other climate models, however, there are some unrealistic projections of ECSR in the CCM3. The most unacceptable one is the erroneously intensified precipitation center on the east periphery of the Tibetan Plateau and its northeastward extension. The artificial strong rainfall center is fairly assessed by comparing with the products of the station rainfall data, Xie and Arkin (1996) rainfall data and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (Gibson et al., 1997). The physical processes involved in the formation of the rainfall center are discussed. The preliminary conclusion reveals that it is the overestimated sensible heating over and around the Tibetan Plateau in the CCM3 that causes the heavy rainfall. The unreal strong surface sensible heating over the southeast and northeast of Tibetan Plateau favors the forming of a powerful subtropical anticyclone over the eastern China. The fake enclosed subtropical anticyclone center makes the moist southwest wind fasten on the east periphery of the Tibetan Plateau and extend to its northeast. In the southeast coast of China, locating on the southeast side of the subtropical anticyclone, the southwest monsoon is decreased and even replaced by northeast wind in some cases. In the CCM3, therefore, the precipitation is exaggerated on the east periphery of the Tibetan Plateau and its northeast extension and is underestimated in the southeast coast of China. Key words Eastern China summer rainfall - Model validation - Subtropical anticyclone - Diabatic heating This study was sponsored by Chinese Academy of Sciences under grant “ Hundred Talents” for “ Validation of Coupled Climate models” and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.49823002), and IAP innovation fund (No. 8-1204). 展开更多
关键词 Eastern China summer rainfall Model validation Subtropical anticyclone Diabatic heating
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On the Association between Spring Arctic Sea Ice Concentration and Chinese Summer Rainfall:A Further Study 被引量:40
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作者 武炳义 张人禾 Bin WANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2009年第4期666-678,共13页
In our previous study, a statistical linkage between the spring Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) and the succeeding Chinese summer rainfall during the period 1968-2005 was identified. This linkage is demonstrated ... In our previous study, a statistical linkage between the spring Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) and the succeeding Chinese summer rainfall during the period 1968-2005 was identified. This linkage is demonstrated by the leading singular value decomposition (SVD) that accounts for 19% of the co-variance. Both spring SIC and Chinese summer rainfall exhibit a coherent interannual variability and two apparent interdecadal variations that occurred in the late 1970s and the early 1990s. The combined impacts of both spring Arctic SIC and Eurasian snow cover on the summer Eurasian wave train may explain their statistical linkage. In this study, we show that evolution of atmospheric circulation anomalies from spring to summer, to a great extent, may explain the spatial distribution of spring and summer Arctic SIC anomalies, and is dynamically consistent with Chinese summer rainfall anomalies in recent decades. The association between spring Arctic SIC and Chinese summer rainfall on interannual time scales is more important relative to interdecadal time scales. The summer Arctic dipole anomaly may serve as the bridge linking the spring Arctic SIC and Chinese summer rainfall, and their coherent interdecadal variations may reflect the feedback of spring SIC variability on the atmosphere. The summer Arctic dipole anomaly shows a closer relationship with the Chinese summer rainfall relative to the Arctic Oscillation. 展开更多
关键词 spring Arctic sea ice concentration summer rainfall Arctic dipole anomaly interannual and interdecadal variations
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Eurasian Snow Cover Variability and Its Association with Summer Rainfall in China 被引量:44
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作者 武炳义 杨琨 张人禾 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2009年第1期31-44,共14页
This study investigates the statistical linkage between summer rainfall in China and the preceding spring Eurasian snow water equivalent (SWE), using the datasets of summer rainfall observations from 513 stations, s... This study investigates the statistical linkage between summer rainfall in China and the preceding spring Eurasian snow water equivalent (SWE), using the datasets of summer rainfall observations from 513 stations, satellite-observed snow water equivalent, and atmospheric circulation variables in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis during the period from 1979 to 2004. The first two coupled modes are identified by using the singular value decomposition (SVD) method. The leading SVD mode of the spring SWE variability shows a coherent negative anomaly in most of Eurasia with the opposite anomaly in some small areas of the Tibetan Plateau and East Asia. The mode displays strong interannual variability, superposed on an interdecadal variation that occurred in the late 1980s, with persistent negative phases in 1979-1987 and frequent positive phases afterwards. When the leading mode is in its positive phase, it corresponds to less SWE in spring throughout most of Eurasia. Meanwhile, excessive SWE in some small areas of the Tibetan Plateau and East Asia, summer rainfall in South and Southeast China tends to be increased, whereas it would be decreased in the up-reaches of the Yellow River. In recent two decades, the decreased spring SWE in Eurasia may be one of reasons for severe droughts in North and Northeast China and much more significant rainfall events in South and Southeast China. The second SVD mode of the spring SWE variability shows opposite spatial variations in western and eastern Eurasia, while most of the Tibetan Plateau and East Asia are in phase. This mode significantly correlates with the succeeding summer rainfall in North and Northeast China, that is, less spring SWE in western Eurasia and excessive SWE in eastern Eurasia and the Tibetan Plateau tend to be associated with decreased summer rainfall in North and Northeast China. 展开更多
关键词 Eurasian snow cover Chinese summer rainfall interdecadal variation
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The Impact of Atmospheric Heat Sources over the Eastern Tibetan Plateau and the Tropical Western Pacific on the Summer Rainfall over the Yangtze-River Basin 被引量:16
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作者 简茂球 乔云亭 +1 位作者 袁卓建 罗会邦 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2006年第1期149-155,共7页
The variability of the summer rainfall over China is analyzed using the EOF procedure with a new parameter (namely, mode station variance percentage) based on 1951-2000 summer rainfall data from 160 stations in Chin... The variability of the summer rainfall over China is analyzed using the EOF procedure with a new parameter (namely, mode station variance percentage) based on 1951-2000 summer rainfall data from 160 stations in China. Compared with mode variance friction, the mode station variance percentage not only reveals more localized characteristics of the variability of the summer rainfall, but also helps to distinguish the regions with a high degree of dominant EOF modes representing the analyzed observational variable. The atmospheric circulation diagnostic studies with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily data from 1966 to 2000 show that in summer, abundant (scarce) rainfall in the belt-area from the upper-middle reaches of the Yangtze River northeastward to the Huaihe River basin is linked to strong (weak) heat sources over the eastern Tibetan Plateau, while the abundant (scarce) rainfall in the area to the south of the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River is closely linked to the weak (strong) heat sources over the tropical western Pacific. 展开更多
关键词 heat sources eastern Tibetan Plateau tropical western Pacific summer rainfall Yangtze River basin
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Influence of Internal Decadal Variability on the Summer Rainfall in Eastern China as Simulated by CCSM4 被引量:7
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作者 Yali ZHU Tao WANG Jiehua MA 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2016年第6期706-714,共9页
The combined impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on the summer rainfall in eastern China was investigated using CCSM4. The strongest signals occur with the c... The combined impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on the summer rainfall in eastern China was investigated using CCSM4. The strongest signals occur with the combination of a positive PDO and a negative AMO (+PDO- AMO), as well as a negative PDO and a positive AMO (-PDO + AMO). For the +PDO- AMO set, significant positive rainfall anomalies occur over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (YR), when the East Asian summer monsoon becomes weaker, while the East Asian westerly jet stream becomes stronger, and ascending motion over the YR becomes enhanced due to the jet-related secondary circulation. Contrary anomalies occur over East Asia for the -PDO + AMO set. The influence of these two combinations of PDO and AMO on the summer rainfall in eastern China can also be observed in the two interdecadal rainfall changes in eastern China in the late 1970s and late 1990s. 展开更多
关键词 Pacific Decadal Oscillation Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation eastern China summer rainfall CCSM4
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Simulated Relationship between Wintertime ENSO and East Asian Summer Rainfall: From CMIP3 to CMIP6 被引量:6
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作者 Yuanhai FU Zhongda LIN Tao WANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2021年第2期221-236,共16页
El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)events have a strong influence on East Asian summer rainfall(EASR).This paper investigates the simulated ENSO-EASR relationship in CMIP6 models and compares the results with thos... El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)events have a strong influence on East Asian summer rainfall(EASR).This paper investigates the simulated ENSO-EASR relationship in CMIP6 models and compares the results with those in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models.In general,the CMIP6 models show almost no appreciable progress in representing the ENSO-EASR relationship compared with the CMIP5 models.The correlation coefficients in the CMIP6 models are relatively smaller and exhibit a slightly greater intermodel diversity than those in the CMIP5 models.Three physical processes related to the delayed effect of ENSO on EASR are further analyzed.Results show that,firstly,the relationships between ENSO and the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO)sea surface temperature(SST)in the CMIP6 models are more realistic,stronger,and have less intermodel diversity than those in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models.Secondly,the teleconnections between the TIO SST and Philippine Sea convection(PSC)in the CMIP6 models are almost the same as those in the CMIP5 models,and stronger than those in the CMIP3 models.Finally,the CMIP3,CMIP5,and CMIP6 models exhibit essentially identical capabilities in representing the PSC-EASR relationship.Almost all the three generations of models underestimate the ENSO-EASR,TIO SST-PSC,and PSC-EASR relationships.Moreover,almost all the CMIP6 models that successfully capture the significant TIO SST-PSC relationship realistically simulate the ENSO-EASR relationship and vice versa,which is,however,not the case in the CMIP5 models. 展开更多
关键词 ENSO East Asian summer rainfall CMIP6 tropical Indian Ocean SST Philippine Sea convection TELECONNECTION
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Improving Multi-model Ensemble Probabilistic Prediction of Yangtze River Valley Summer Rainfall 被引量:4
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作者 LI Fang LIN Zhongda 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2015年第4期497-504,共8页
Seasonal prediction of summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley(YRV) is valuable for agricultural and industrial production and freshwater resource management in China, but remains a major challenge. Earlier mu... Seasonal prediction of summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley(YRV) is valuable for agricultural and industrial production and freshwater resource management in China, but remains a major challenge. Earlier multi-model ensemble(MME) prediction schemes for summer rainfall over China focus on single-value prediction, which cannot provide the necessary uncertainty information, while commonly-used ensemble schemes for probability density function(PDF) prediction are not adapted to YRV summer rainfall prediction. In the present study, an MME PDF prediction scheme is proposed based on the ENSEMBLES hindcasts. It is similar to the earlier Bayesian ensemble prediction scheme, but with optimization of ensemble members and a revision of the variance modeling of the likelihood function. The optimized ensemble members are regressed YRV summer rainfall with factors selected from model outputs of synchronous 500-h Pa geopotential height as predictors. The revised variance modeling of the likelihood function is a simple linear regression with ensemble spread as the predictor. The cross-validation skill of 1960–2002 YRV summer rainfall prediction shows that the new scheme produces a skillful PDF prediction, and is much better-calibrated, sharper, and more accurate than the earlier Bayesian ensemble and raw ensemble. 展开更多
关键词 probability density function seasonal prediction multi-model ensemble Yangtze River valley summer rainfall Bayesian scheme
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Relationship between the Modes of Winter Tropical Pacific SST Anomalies and the Intraseasonal Variations of the Following Summer Rainfall Anomalies in China 被引量:8
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作者 Huang Ping Huang Rong-Hui 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 2009年第5期295-300,共6页
In present study,EOF analysis and extended singular value decomposition (ESVD) analysis are performed to explore the relationship between the winter tropical sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the Pacific an... In present study,EOF analysis and extended singular value decomposition (ESVD) analysis are performed to explore the relationship between the winter tropical sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the Pacific and the following summer rainfall anomalies in China.The two leading modes of winter tropical SSTAs in the Pacific are the SSTAs pattern characterized by "positive anomalies in the East and negative anomalies in the West" like the typical eastern Pacific El Nio and negative anomalies in the West and the central Pacific warming pattern characterized by "positive anomalies in the central region but negative anomalies in the East and West".The intraseasonal variations of the rainfall anomalies during the following summer in China that are associated with the eastern Pacific warming mode are characterized by positive anomalies south of the Yangtze River and negative anomalies in the Yangtze-Huai River Valley in June,and negative anomalies in South China and positive anomalies in the Yangtze River Valley and North China in July and August.In contrast,after the central Pacific warming mode,the corresponding intraseasonal variations of China’s summer rainfall are characterized by a nearly consistent pattern during the three summer months,which is positive in the South China coast and North China and negative in the Yangtze River Valley except for the positive anomalies in the Yangtze-Huai River Valley in July.These results may provide a reference for the seasonal prediction of the summer drought and flood distributions in China. 展开更多
关键词 Pacific SSTAs summer rainfall in China intraseasonal variations
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A Statistical-Dynamical Scheme for the Extraseasonal Prediction of Summer Rainfall for 160 Observation Stations across China 被引量:4
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作者 郎咸梅 郑飞 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2011年第6期1291-1300,共10页
The purpose of this study was to design and test a statistical-dynamical scheme for the extraseasonal(one season in advance) prediction of summer rainfall at 160 observation stations across China.The scheme combined... The purpose of this study was to design and test a statistical-dynamical scheme for the extraseasonal(one season in advance) prediction of summer rainfall at 160 observation stations across China.The scheme combined both valuable information from the preceding observations and dynamical information from synchronous numerical predictions of atmospheric circulation factors produced by an atmospheric general circulation model.First,the key preceding climatic signals and synchronous atmospheric circulation factors that were not only closely related to summer rainfall but also numerically predictable were identified as the potential predictors.Second,the extraseasonal prediction models of summer rainfall were constructed using a multivariate linear regression analysis for 15 subregions and then 160 stations across China.Cross-validation analyses performed for the period 1983-2008 revealed that the performance of the prediction models was not only high in terms of interannual variation,trend,and sign but also was stable during the whole period.Furthermore,the performance of the scheme was confirmed by the accuracy of the real-time prediction of summer rainfall during 2009 and 2010. 展开更多
关键词 summer rainfall statistical-dynamical scheme prediction model
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Revisiting the Second EOF Mode of Interannual Variation in Summer Rainfall over East China 被引量:3
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作者 Zhongda LIN Qin SU Riyu LU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2016年第1期121-134,共14页
The second EOF(EOF2) mode of interannual variation in summer rainfall over East China is characterized by inverse rainfall changes between South China(SC) and the Yellow River-Huaihe River valleys(YH).However,un... The second EOF(EOF2) mode of interannual variation in summer rainfall over East China is characterized by inverse rainfall changes between South China(SC) and the Yellow River-Huaihe River valleys(YH).However,understanding of the EOF2 mode is still limited.In this study,the authors identify that the EOF2 mode physically depicts the latitudinal variation of the climatological summer-mean rainy belt along the Yangtze River valley(YRRB),based on a 160-station rainfall dataset in China for the period 1951-2011.The latitudinal variation of the YRRB is mostly attributed to two different rainfall patterns:one reflects the seesaw(SS) rainfall changes between the YH and SC(SS pattern),and the other features rainfall anomalies concentrated in SC only(SC pattern).Corresponding to a southward shift of the YRRB,the SS pattern,with above-normal rainfall in SC and below-normal rainfall in the YH,is related to a cyclonic anomaly centered over the SC-East China Sea region,with a northerly anomaly blowing from the YH to SC;while the SC pattern,with above-normal rainfall in SC,is related to an anticyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific(WNP),corresponding to an enhanced southwest monsoon over SC.The cyclonic anomaly,related to the SS pattern,is induced by a near-barotropic eastward propagating wave train along the Asian upper-tropospheric westerly jet,originating from the mid-high latitudes of the North Atlantic.The anticyclonic anomaly,for the SC pattern,is related to suppressed rainfall in the WNP. 展开更多
关键词 Yangtze River rainy belt East China summer rainfall seesaw pattern South China pattern western North Pacific subtropical high extratropical wave train
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Notes of Numerical Simulation of Summer Rainfall in China with a Regional Climate Model REMO 被引量:3
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作者 崔雪锋 黄刚 陈文 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2008年第6期999-1008,共10页
Regional climate models are major tools for regional climate simulation and their output are mostly used for climate impact studies. Notes are reported from a series of numerical simulations of summer rainfall in Chin... Regional climate models are major tools for regional climate simulation and their output are mostly used for climate impact studies. Notes are reported from a series of numerical simulations of summer rainfall in China with a regional climate model. Domain sizes and running modes are major foci. The results reveal that the model in forecast mode driven by "perfect" boundaries could reasonably represent the inter-annual differences: heavy rainfall along the Yangtze River in 1998 and dry conditions in 1997. Model simulation in climate mode differs to a greater extent from observation than that in forecast mode. This may be due to the fact that in climate mode it departs further from the driving fields and relies more on internal model dynamical processes. A smaller domain in climate mode outperforms a larger one. Further development of model parameterizations including dynamic vegetation are encouraged in future studies. 展开更多
关键词 regional climate model REMO summer rainfall in China running mode domain choice
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An Approach for Improving Short-Term Prediction of Summer Rainfall over North China by Decomposing Interannual and Decadal Variability 被引量:2
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作者 HAN Leqiong LI Shuanglin LIU Na 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2014年第2期435-448,共14页
A statistical downscaling approach was developed to improve seasonal-to-interannual prediction of summer rainfall over North China by considering the effect of decadal variability based on observational datasets and d... A statistical downscaling approach was developed to improve seasonal-to-interannual prediction of summer rainfall over North China by considering the effect of decadal variability based on observational datasets and dynamical model outputs.Both predictands and predictors were first decomposed into interannual and decadal components.Two predictive equations were then built separately for the two distinct timescales by using multivariate linear regressions based on independent sample validation.For the interannual timescale,850-hPa meridional wind and 500-hPa geopotential heights from multiple dynamical models' hindcasts and SSTs from observational datasets were used to construct predictors.For the decadal timescale,two well-known basin-scale SST decadal oscillation (the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) indices were used as predictors.Then,the downscaled predictands were combined to represent the predicted/hindcasted total rainfall.The prediction was compared with the models' raw hindcasts and those from a similar approach but without timescale decomposition.In comparison to hindcasts from individual models or their multi-model ensemble mean,the skill of the present scheme was found to be significantly higher,with anomaly correlation coefficients increasing from nearly neutral to over 0.4 and with RMSE decreasing by up to 0.6 mm d-1.The improvements were also seen in the station-based temporal correlation of the predictions with observed rainfall,with the coefficients ranging from-0.1 to 0.87,obviously higher than the models' raw hindcasted rainfall results.Thus,the present approach exhibits a great advantage and may be appropriate for use in operational predictions. 展开更多
关键词 summer rainfall short-term prediction decomposing DOWNSCALING
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Dominant Patterns of Summer Rainfall Anomalies in East China during 1951-2006 被引量:2
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作者 叶红 陆日宇 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2012年第4期695-704,共10页
The dominant patterns of summer rainfall anomalies in East China were studied using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The results indicate that after the late 1970s, the first and second dominant pattern... The dominant patterns of summer rainfall anomalies in East China were studied using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The results indicate that after the late 1970s, the first and second dominant patterns switched. During the period before the late 1970s, the spatial pattern of the first (second) dominant mode was the "Yangtze River pattern" (the "South China pattern"), but this changed to the "South China pattern" (the "Yangtze River pattern") after the late 1970s. This decadal change in the dominant patterns resulted from a significant decadal change in summer rainfall over South China after the late 1970s, i.e., a negative phase during 1978-1992 and a positive phase during 1993-2006. When the decadal variation of rainfall in East China is omitted from the analysis, the first and second dominant patterns represent the "Yangtze River pattern" and the "South China pattern", respectively. These results suggest that when decadal variation is included, the rainfall in China may be dominated by one mode during certain periods and by another in other periods. For the interannual variability when decadal variation is excluded, however, the first and second modes can be easily distinguished, and their order has been stable since at least 1951. 展开更多
关键词 dominant patterns summer rainfall interannual variability South China decadal variation
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A Timescale Decomposed Threshold Regression Downscaling Approach to Forecasting South China Early Summer Rainfall 被引量:2
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作者 Linye SONG Wansuo DUAN +1 位作者 Yun LI Jiangyu MAO 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2016年第9期1071-1084,共14页
A timescale decomposed threshold regression (TSDTR) downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall (SCESR) is described by using long-term observed station rainfall data and NOAA ERSST data.... A timescale decomposed threshold regression (TSDTR) downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall (SCESR) is described by using long-term observed station rainfall data and NOAA ERSST data. It makes use of two distinct regression downscaling models corresponding to the interannual and interdecadal rainfall variability of SCESR. The two models are developed based on the partial least squares (PLS) regression technique, linking SCESR to SST modes in preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. Specifically, using the datasets in the calibration period 1915-84, the variability of SCESR and SST are decomposed into interannual and interdecadal components. On the interannual timescale, a threshold PLS regression model is fitted to interannual components of SCESR and March SST patterns by taking account of the modulation of negative and positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). On the interdecadal timescale, a standard PLS regression model is fitted to the relationship between SCESR and preceding November SST patterns. The total rainfall prediction is obtained by the sum of the outputs from both the interannual and interdecadal models. Results show that the TSDTR downscaling approach achieves reasonable skill in predicting the observed rainfall in the validation period 1985-2006, compared to other simpler approaches. This study suggests that the TSDTR approach, considering different interannual SCESR-SST relationships under the modulation of PDO phases, as well as the interdecadal variability of SCESR associated with SST patterns, may provide a new perspective to improve climate predictions. 展开更多
关键词 timescale decomposed threshold regression South China early summer rainfall forecasting skill
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Different Summer Rainfall Anomaly Patterns in Northeast China Associated with Two Kinds of El Ni?o Events 被引量:1
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作者 王钦 李双林 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2020年第2期223-230,共8页
The relationship between summer rainfall anomalies in northeast China and two types of El Ni?o events is investigated by using observation data and an atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM).It is shown that,for d... The relationship between summer rainfall anomalies in northeast China and two types of El Ni?o events is investigated by using observation data and an atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM).It is shown that,for different types of El Ni?o events,there is different rainfall anomaly pattern in the following summer.In the following year of a typical El Ni?o event,there are remarkable positive rainfall anomalies in the central-western region of northeast China,whereas the pattern of more rainfall in the south end and less rainfall in the north end of northeast China easily appears in an El Ni?o Modoki event.The reason for the distinct difference is that,associated with the different sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA)along the equatorial Pacific,the large-scale circulation anomalies along east coast of East Asia shift northward in the following summer after El Ni?o Modoki events.Influenced by the anomalous anticyclone in Philippine Sea,southwesterly anomalies over eastern China strengthen summer monsoon and bring more water vapor to northeast China.Meanwhile,convergence and updraft is strengthened by the anomalous cyclone right in northeast China in typical El Ni?o events.These moisture and atmospheric circulation conditions are favorable for enhanced precipitation.However,because of the northward shift,the anomalous anticyclone in the Philippine Sea in typical El Ni?o cases shifts to the south of Japan in Modoki years,and the anomalous cyclone in northeast China in typical El Ni?o cases shifts to the north of northeast China,leading to the"dipole pattern"of rainfall anomalies.According to the results of numerical experiments,we further confirm that the tropical SSTA in different types of El Ni?o event can give rise to observed rainfall anomaly patterns in northeast China. 展开更多
关键词 typical El Niño El Niño Modoki summer rainfall in northeast China AGCM
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Relation among Summer Rainfall in South Shandong and High Pressure in South Asia and Atmospheric Circulation 被引量:1
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作者 GAO An-chun,SHEN Pei-lu,LI Bing-wen,HU Yan,YU Yan-min,ZHU Yi-qing Linyi Meteorological Bureau of Shandong Province,Linyi 276004,China 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2011年第7期41-46,共6页
[Objective] The aim was to study the relation among summer rainfall in south Shandong and high pressure in South Asia and atmospheric circulation.[Method] Taking the precipitation in south Shandong along the Yellow Ri... [Objective] The aim was to study the relation among summer rainfall in south Shandong and high pressure in South Asia and atmospheric circulation.[Method] Taking the precipitation in south Shandong along the Yellow River and Huaihe River,using the NCEP/NCAR data and summer rainfall data in south Shandong in summer from 1961 to 2005,the characteristics of high pressure in South Asia and atmospheric circulation in drought year and flood year in summer in south Shandong Province were expounded.The mechanism of 100 hPa pressure in South Asian influencing precipitation in south Shandong Province was discussed.The interaction of different equipment,different altitude and different system of atmosphere circulation in low and high layer was expounded.[Results] The first mode of EOF decomposition of precipitation in summer in south Shandong Province explained above 63% variances and reflected universal form of precipitation.The difference of central position of the central position of height field of high pressure in South Asia in drought and flood year was small.But the wind field center was inconsistent.As the area of SAH was smaller and its eastern ridge line stretched to the Western Pacific between the middle of south Shandong and Changjiang Estuary,flood summer occurred when there was an unusual cyclone lied in the east of 90° E and south of Lake Baikal.The area of SAH was larger and its eastern ridge line stretching to the Western Pacific over Changjiang Estuary,drought summer occurred,when there was an unusual anticyclone lied in the east of 90° E and south of Lake Baikal.SAH and summer rainfall also had close relationship with Tele-connection Patterns over the Eurasia continent and EAP Tele-connection.When the height anomaly was in '+-+' form in the north of the Caspian Sea,around Lake Baikal and Kamchatka,and when the height anomaly in East Asia-West Pacific area was in '-+' form from low altitude to high altitude,there was much precipitation in summer;and conversely,it was drought in summer in south Shandong.[Conclusion] It provided the oretical basis for summer rainfall in south Shandong. 展开更多
关键词 summer rainfall in the south of Shandong Province Drought and flood High pressure in South Asia Atmospheric circulation China
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Diversity of the Coupling Wheels in the East Asian Summer Monsoon on the Interannual Time Scale: Challenge of Summer Rainfall Forecasting in China
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作者 Congwen ZHU Boqi LIU +2 位作者 Kang XU Ning JIANG Kai LIU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2021年第4期546-554,共9页
Two types of three-dimensional circulation of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) act as the coupling wheels determining the seasonal rainfall anomalies in China during 1979–2015. The first coupling mode features the... Two types of three-dimensional circulation of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) act as the coupling wheels determining the seasonal rainfall anomalies in China during 1979–2015. The first coupling mode features the interaction between the Mongolian cyclone over North Asia and the South Asian high(SAH) anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau at 200 hPa. The second mode presents the coupling between the anomalous low-level western Pacific anticyclone and upperlevel SAH via the meridional flow over Southeast Asia. These two modes are responsible for the summer rainfall anomalies over China in 24 and 7 out of 37 years, respectively. However, the dominant SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and the North Atlantic Ocean fail to account for the first coupling wheel's interannual variability, illustrating the challenges in forecasting summer rainfall over China. 展开更多
关键词 East Asian summer monsoon coupling circulation modes summer rainfall anomalies China
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The Combined Effects of the Tropical and Extratropical Quasi-biweekly Oscillations on the Record-setting Mei-yu Rainfall in the Summer of 2020
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作者 Zhen HUANG Shuanglin LI +1 位作者 Jianying LI Chao ZHANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第4期663-681,I0002-I0014,共32页
During June-July 2020,the strongest recorded mei-yu rainfall occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.The rainfall processes exhibited an obvious quasi-biweekly(biweekly in brief)variability,and t... During June-July 2020,the strongest recorded mei-yu rainfall occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.The rainfall processes exhibited an obvious quasi-biweekly(biweekly in brief)variability,and there are altogether five cycles.It is found that the biweekly rainfall cycle mainly arises from the collaborative effects of biweekly variabilities from both the tropics and extratropics.As for the tropics,the biweekly meridional march and retreat of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)is particularly evident.As for the extratropics,geopotential height anomalies near Lake Baikal are active.The former is attributed to the intensified biweekly activity of the southwest-northeast oriented EastAsian Pacific wave train(EAP)originating from the tropical western Pacific,while the latter is associated with the biweekly activities of the eastward propagating Eurasia mid-high latitudinal wave train and the westward propagating North Pacific wave train.Why the biweekly activities of these wave trains intensified is further diagnosed from the perspective of thermodynamical forcing and also from the modulation of interannual background on intraseasonal variability.It is found that the strongest recorded convection anchoring over the tropical western Indian Ocean(IO)triggers anomalous descent over the tropical western Pacific,which modulates the biweekly activity of the EAP.Meanwhile,the anomalous diabatic heating over the IO causes changes of the meridional thermodynamic contrast across the IO to the high latitudes,which modulates the extratropical wave trains.A further diagnosis of barotropic kinetic energy conversion suggests that the active occurrence of two extratropical biweekly wave trains is attributed to the increased efficiency of energy conversion from basic flow.The westward propagation of the extratropical North Pacific wave train is attributed to the weakened and northshifted upper-level westerly,which is caused by the SST warmth near the Kuroshio extension. 展开更多
关键词 strongest recorded mei-yu rainfall in summer 2020 quasi-biweekly variability tropical convection westward propagation of the extratropical North Pacific wave train SSTA in the North Pacific
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